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View Full Version : GREAT point here about the trade: look to the past



GOREDSGO32
07-18-2006, 04:22 PM
From Cincinnatireds.com, and Reds beat writer Mark Sheldon, replying to irate fans:

Whenever the Reds make a trade of any kind, I usually brace myself for a flood of angry e-mails. Although I understand the fury brought on by this particular trade, I wish I saved the e-mails from some of the other deals Krivsky made since taking over but many of them essentially went like this:

How could the Reds give up a slugger and a potential 40-homer guy like Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo? Couldn't they have gotten more? Why did the Reds trade for a third catcher like David Ross? Who is David Ross? What was Krivsky thinking when he added a fourth second baseman like Brandon Phillips?

Now ... does anyone really miss Pena now? If you had control of the club for a day, would you undo the Ross or Phillips trades? How about the Arroyo deal? Me either.

Pardon the Bill Simmons-eque tangent and the one that's about to come (love Simmons' columns by the way). Those earlier deals have built Krivsky some credibility by now, and despite the steep price paid in last week's trade, it at least allows for some benefit of the doubt.

One other deal not involving the Reds also comes to mind. Following the 2003 season, the Twins dealt catcher A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants for reliever Joe Nathan and two prospects no one had heard of to make room for Joe Mauer behind the plate. Even with the Mauer aspect, public opinion wasn't overly positive about that trade either. Nathan, a setup man, was acquired to be a closer despite having never performed in that role before. Krivsky was Minnesota's assistant GM and its main NL scout at that time. Terry Ryan was the GM and pulled the trigger, but Krivsky's fingerprints were all over it. Nathan became a two-time All-Star closer. Boof Bonser made his big-league debut this year in the Twins' rotation.

And the other guy? It was lefty Francisco Liriano. Back then, he was in Class A ball coming off elbow surgery. Now he's an All-Star pitcher and a Rookie of the Year candidate.

crazybob60
07-18-2006, 04:27 PM
I think alot of this has to do with living in conservative Cincinnati. Sure I am not the biggest proponent of the trades either and I bashed the last one that was made, but right now I am going to give it some time, especially after I have thought it through some more. It seems that the people in the city always want a move or a trade and then one happens and then they always bash it. I think that is just how they view the team or something. I hope that this post has made sense like it has when I thought it through.

ochre
07-18-2006, 04:28 PM
Yeah. Trading a platoon player that can only hit Lefthanded pitching for a top of the rotation (Granted it's the Reds rotation he's atop of) starting pitcher is a great way to validate trading two, generally above average, regulars for 2 middle relievers. There are plenty of valid arguments both for and against this trade. This is none of them.

Tell me which of the guys acquired even comes close to profiling like one of the pitchers the Twins acquired for one regular position player of similar level as the two the Reds gave up, let alone all three.

GOREDSGO32
07-18-2006, 04:32 PM
Um, point being, who the heck was Lirano when he came up? I respect Krivsky's ability to evaluate talent. Cry all you want about the trade, the man knows whats he's doing.

rcb126
07-18-2006, 04:36 PM
the game plan to beat the Reds used to be, keep it close for 6 to 7 innings and then beat up on the bullpen. With the recent trades they need to go to a plan B. Without a decent bullpen theres no way the Reds compete for a wildcard or the division.

biggergipper
07-18-2006, 05:00 PM
What's intriguing to me and has been discussed very little about the trade and looking at past trades in evaluating this one is that in almost every instance where a trade ended up being horribly one sided is that prospects were traditionally sent from the team that "lost" in the trade. We didn't trade away any prospects...Wagner was a known with ML service time. I would say Bray and Thompson are going to ultimately pan out in our favor. I think Kriv, sees either the Majic Man or Bray as our closer in the near future and we will control either of them for a few years before the cost makes them prohibitive for a small market team. My rationalization starting the day of the trade is that if one of these two relievers ends up being the closer of the future, the trade becomes much more balanced and I think Bray will become the closer as he matures. We'll see though...

ochre
07-18-2006, 05:02 PM
Um, point being, who the heck was Lirano when he came up? I respect Krivsky's ability to evaluate talent. Cry all you want about the trade, the man knows whats he's doing.
he was an 18 year old in A ball putting up these rate stats (he was injured for most of his 19 year old season):
H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
6.86 0.68 3.49 9.56 1.15

The other key component of this non sequitur line of argument is that he was the throw in on that trade. Those rate stats blow away Thompson's from the same level/league at an older age.
H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
7.71 0.50 4.02 8.05 1.30

You have two Krivsky influenced trades there (the Arroyo trade isn't even close to the same, as it was a player for a player). One moving a position player for multiple high impact prospects in the off season. The other moving multiple position players for one, maybe two average (with some upside) bullpen arms near the deadline. If Thompson becomes Liriano-lite this might make it a bit more palatable. I think there is a lesson to be learned, but it's not the one this author is trying to portray.

ochre
07-18-2006, 05:03 PM
the game plan to beat the Reds used to be, keep it close for 6 to 7 innings and then beat up on the bullpen. With the recent trades they need to go to a plan B. Without a decent bullpen theres no way the Reds compete for a wildcard or the division.
now the game plan is pull ahead of them early and don't worry about how improved their bullpen is? :)

flyer85
07-18-2006, 05:17 PM
One other deal not involving the Reds also comes to mind. Following the 2003 season, the Twins dealt catcher A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants for reliever Joe Nathan and two prospects no one had heard of maybe "know nothing sportswriters" had never heard of Bonser and Liriano but knowledgeable people knew who they were.

If Bray becomes a stud and Thompson makes it to the majors as a starter then maybe WK will have been proven correct. That is a ways off at the moment.

rcb126
07-18-2006, 05:20 PM
now the game plan is pull ahead of them early and don't worry about how improved their bullpen is? :)
Against Milton maybe. Against Arroyo and Harang........the gameplan is pray alot.:)

KoryMac5
07-18-2006, 05:23 PM
now the game plan is pull ahead of them early and don't worry about how improved their bullpen is? :)

The Reds offense does pretty well coming from behind.

ochre
07-18-2006, 05:25 PM
The Reds offense does pretty well coming from behind.
The Reds have just replaced 1/4 of that offense with Royce Clayton and an unproven rookie.

Reds4Life
07-18-2006, 05:30 PM
Yeah. Trading a platoon player that can only hit Lefthanded pitching for a top of the rotation (Granted it's the Reds rotation he's atop of) starting pitcher is a great way to validate trading two, generally above average, regulars for 2 middle relievers. There are plenty of valid arguments both for and against this trade. This is none of them.

Werd.

Arroyo was a starter signed to a cheap deal, you expect those guys to be expensive and Wily Mo was riding the pine.

I hope the deal works out, but I still feel Wayne overpaid for what he got in return.

TRF
07-18-2006, 05:36 PM
Werd.

Arroyo was a starter signed to a cheap deal, you expect those guys to be expensive and Wily Mo was riding the pine.

I hope the deal works out, but I still feel Wayne overpaid for what he got in return.

WMP was penciled in as the starting LF for the Reds, with Dunn the starting 1B.

ochre
07-18-2006, 05:45 PM
WMP was penciled in as the starting LF for the Reds, with Dunn the starting 1B.
while that may have been the stated position of the Reds in regards to Pena's (and Dunn's) role for this season, the Red Sox were quite clear about what they felt they were acquiring. That puts the preseason value of a starting pitcher at a much lower level than what we are seeing here midseason. Granted I think the Red Sox saw Pena as one of, if not the, best options for the role they were looking to fill: RH hitting platoon outfielder.

TRF
07-18-2006, 05:56 PM
And cheap eventual successor to Trot Nixon.

ochre
07-18-2006, 05:58 PM
And cheap eventual successor to Trot Nixon.until they saw him field in person :)

jimbo
07-18-2006, 06:16 PM
The Reds have just replaced 1/4 of that offense with Royce Clayton and an unproven rookie.

Houston went to the WS last year with one of the worse offenses in the league. Pitching and defense is the direction this organization is going because history has shown that's what it takes to win consistantly. This offense is still capable of scoring enough runs.

This trade sent away a guy who had become a liability at SS (3 errors in 4 games with the Nationals) and another who has yet to prove he can play a full season putting up the numbers he was.

ochre
07-18-2006, 06:37 PM
That was in response to the Reds ability to come back late in games. Rolling over 1/4 of the lineup might affect the Reds ability in that regard, nicht wahr?
Houston in 2005:
RS RA
693 609

11th of 16 teams in Runs scored in the NL.
1st in all of the majors in Runs allowed.

That type of pitching sure is something to aspire to.

GOREDSGO32
07-18-2006, 07:26 PM
he was an 18 year old in A ball putting up these rate stats (he was injured for most of his 19 year old season):
H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
6.86 0.68 3.49 9.56 1.15

The other key component of this non sequitur line of argument is that he was the throw in on that trade. Those rate stats blow away Thompson's from the same level/league at an older age.
H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
7.71 0.50 4.02 8.05 1.30

You have two Krivsky influenced trades there (the Arroyo trade isn't even close to the same, as it was a player for a player). One moving a position player for multiple high impact prospects in the off season. The other moving multiple position players for one, maybe two average (with some upside) bullpen arms near the deadline. If Thompson becomes Liriano-lite this might make it a bit more palatable. I think there is a lesson to be learned, but it's not the one this author is trying to portray.

No the lesson is Krivsky knows baseball, and you are just a Monday morning quarterback. I'm sick of people bashing the trade who haven't even gave it a chance. To say we need a rookie of the year and Cy Young candidate for two average to above average everyday players is a joke.

I think I trust the judgement of a guy who's been considered a top scout and baseball mind for years, over a fanbase who many of them overvalue the players they have. The whole lesson' as you say is 1) give the trade a chance 2) Krivsky knows what he is doing. Two points some people don't want to do.

ochre
07-18-2006, 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GOREDSGO32
Um, point being, who the heck was Lirano when he came up? I respect Krivsky's ability to evaluate talent. Cry all you want about the trade, the man knows whats he's doing.
Well. You asked "who the heck was Lirano [sic]".
As I said in my first post in this thread, there are valid arguments for the trade. The ones listed by this "author" aren't among them.

The whole lesson as I say is 1) the points raised in that article are immaterial 2) I don't really care how highly you hold Mr. Krivsky (who has admitted he might have overpaid).

GOREDSGO32
07-18-2006, 07:44 PM
Actually I think they are good points. Whatever, though, as always people are entitled to their opinion. I don't wanna see the bandwagon of people when the Reds continue winning though when fans question every single move.

TeamBoone
07-19-2006, 10:27 PM
Werd.

Arroyo was a starter signed to a cheap deal, you expect those guys to be expensive and Wily Mo was riding the pine.

I hope the deal works out, but I still feel Wayne overpaid for what he got in return.

He admitted that he did, because the Reds needed relief NOW and he knew the price would go up even more as the deadline approaches.