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View Full Version : Homer Bailey in the middle of another gem...



Matt700wlw
07-21-2006, 08:53 PM
SO FAR - 5 innings. 1 hit.

dougdirt
07-21-2006, 08:58 PM
Matt, he is actually through 6.2 innings now, 2 hits, 2 walks, 0 runs, 6 strikeouts.

fearofpopvol1
07-21-2006, 09:45 PM
Mostly fastballs I'm assuming? He's gotta develop another pitch to go at the big league level.

cincy09
07-21-2006, 10:04 PM
actually it was noted the breaking stuff was great and the change froze people

Superdude
07-21-2006, 10:05 PM
What do you guys think about Bailey in the rotation next year? I know he's young, but Kazmir made the same jump very successfully last season.

fearofpopvol1
07-21-2006, 10:05 PM
Really? That's great. I know a start or two ago, his breaking stuff was non-existent.

Steve4192
07-21-2006, 10:18 PM
actually it was noted the breaking stuff was great and the change froze people

Let's not get carried away. All that was mentioned is that he froze ONE guy with a changeup.

Joseph
07-21-2006, 10:29 PM
and Marty and Fay talked in the top of the second about not seeing how he couldn't be in a Reds uni this season.

dougdirt
07-21-2006, 10:37 PM
Oh, I listened to every pitch and did play by play for Baileys game tonight in the game thread. Bailey froze 3 batters on off speed stuff tonight, and threw quite a few more for strikes. The younger PBP radio guy hardly ever says what a pitch is, the older PBP man does a good job though, so for at least 2 innings you never knew what a pitch was other than a ball or a strike.

membengal
07-22-2006, 08:45 AM
Really? That's great. I know a start or two ago, his breaking stuff was non-existent.

He had a cut on his hand that limited his ability to throw his breaking stuff. Don't read more into it than that.

StillFunkyB
07-22-2006, 09:53 AM
I am currently on the ship that doesn't want to rush the kid. However, I have one leg over the side of that boat right now.

Can anyone tell me what Dontrelle's numbers were like in AA when the Fish called him up?

He is completely dominating AA. I think at the very least he should be promoted to AAA.

Heath
07-22-2006, 10:08 AM
I'd like to see Homer in September.........of 2007.

ChatterRed
07-22-2006, 12:48 PM
I'd like to see him in August of 2006 after a few AAA games.

Caveat Emperor
07-22-2006, 02:01 PM
Can anyone tell me what Dontrelle's numbers were like in AA when the Fish called him up?

He is completely dominating AA. I think at the very least he should be promoted to AAA.

Here was Willis' line in AA before the Marlins brought him up:

Year W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2003 4 1 1.49 36.1 24 6 6 2 9 32 5.94 0.50 2.23 7.93 0.91

Compared to Bailey:

Year W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2006 4 0 0.88 30.2 17 3 3 0 6 31 4.98 0.00 1.76 9.09 0.75

It is worth noting, however, that Willis had thrown 315.2 innings of minor league baseball whereas Bailey has only 216.2 IP. While their level-numbers through 5 games (6 for Willis) are fairly comparable, I feel that Bailey would truly benefit from throwing at least 325-350 innings in the minors before the Reds even consider bringing him up.

MWM
07-22-2006, 02:18 PM
I've always been on the don't rush him boat. But if he continues this kind of domination in AA for the rest of this season and starts off the April and May next season in AAA in the same fashion, then he really has nothing left to prove in the majors. But this year should be completely out, IMO.

Scrap Irony
07-22-2006, 02:36 PM
Cincinnati in September, assuming he continues to dominate AA as he has so far. Anything more than a 1.50 ERA in AA keeps him in the minors until next All Star break.

Say what you will about Bailey's offspeed pitches, his work ethic, or the propensity of high schoolers to break down, he's been an outstanding prospect this season. He's among the top handful of pitchers capable of ace level status and his ceiling is growing ever higher.

The promotion, in short, has worked wonders, despite what many of the so-called experts on this board prophesized.

StillFunkyB
07-22-2006, 02:55 PM
Here was Willis' line in AA before the Marlins brought him up:

Year W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2003 4 1 1.49 36.1 24 6 6 2 9 32 5.94 0.50 2.23 7.93 0.91

Compared to Bailey:

Year W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2006 4 0 0.88 30.2 17 3 3 0 6 31 4.98 0.00 1.76 9.09 0.75

It is worth noting, however, that Willis had thrown 315.2 innings of minor league baseball whereas Bailey has only 216.2 IP. While their level-numbers through 5 games (6 for Willis) are fairly comparable, I feel that Bailey would truly benefit from throwing at least 325-350 innings in the minors before the Reds even consider bringing him up.

Good points. Thanks for the post CE. My leg is back on board the "don't rush" boat.

JaxRed
07-22-2006, 03:11 PM
I attended last night's game and compared notes with another Reds fan at the game and we were both if the same opinion.

First this was a dominating performance. Through 6 innings, the only hit had been a swinging bunt accident that dribbled down the third base line. The first hit in the 7th was an opposite field single cue shot off the end of the bat. He then barely nicked a batter, before giving up a solid single up the middle.

Even when the batters were putting wood on the ball they were lazy fly balls and weak grounders. The fast ball was well located all night long, and was pitching at the knees.

He mixed in quite a few curves but was having trouble getting it in the strike zone consistenly (usually stayed high). When it worked, 8 or 9 times at least, (not always for 3rd strikes), they were knee bucklers that froze the batter or had him WAY out in front. Several times you could hear the crowd murmer after these pitches they were so unfair. I was in a Jacksonville crowd and you could hear people all around talking about how good Bailey was.

Now, for a guy that is supposed to be working on a changeup, I never saw one all night, unless his changeup moves like a curve.

Superdude
07-22-2006, 04:00 PM
Now, for a guy that is supposed to be working on a changeup, I never saw one all night, unless his changeup moves like a curve.

Unless you had perfect seats, it' probably hard to tell a difference if his changeup has a little sink.

LoganBuck
07-22-2006, 04:03 PM
Jax, what are you thinking for Homer on an ETA?

In the very short sighted, little patience crowd he is almost synched up with Joe Mays in the rotation.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2006, 04:05 PM
Unless you had perfect seats, it' probably hard to tell a difference if his changeup has a little sink.

Unless it's a big 12-to-6 curve, such as Bailey is said to have.

corkedbat
07-22-2006, 04:12 PM
They may get greedy and try and break him in for next year by bringing hin up in September of this year. I'd hate to see them start his clock though.

Unless he is absolutley dominant next Spring, he'd break camp going to Louisville next year (I might start him there anyway) if I had any say. After that, all bets are off. If he shows consistency, they could bring him up at any time. Maybe in May when they start using a fifth starter on a regular basis.

Steve4192
07-22-2006, 04:22 PM
Cincinnati in September
Nahhh.

I'd rather see him pitch in the AA playoffs and then shut it down for the year.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2006, 04:31 PM
I hope his changeup is only scarcely used. I hate how Reds pitchers (it seems) rely on the changeup way too much. Unless it is a devastating change, I'd rather pitchers just mix it in every now and again. I'd much rather he perfect his curve and trying a few different fastballs.

Marc D
07-22-2006, 04:55 PM
I hope his changeup is only scarcely used. I hate how Reds pitchers (it seems) rely on the changeup way too much. Unless it is a devastating change, I'd rather pitchers just mix it in every now and again. I'd much rather he perfect his curve and trying a few different fastballs.

I think thats because we haven't seen a Reds pitcher with a plus fastball in so long we forget how devastating the combination can be. The 82 mph changeup's off 88 mph "fastballs" that end up 400 ft homeruns are what taint our collective view of the pitch. ;)

Coming into '06, from what I had read, I was thinking we had a future flame throwing bullpener on our hands at best. Lets hope his emergence as a potential frontline starter continues. God knows we're due for one.

JaxRed
07-22-2006, 05:00 PM
I differ from most of the posters here. 90% of pitchers don't make the grade. So you can select any attribute you want and then have an enormous sucess rate in predicting failure based on that attribute, be it brushing your teeth or "aggressive promotion".

I suspect that once the Reds are satisified that Homer has achieved the things he needs to improve on (curve, changeup), and they are satisfied he has the emotional maturity to handle the jump, he'll move.

Whether that occurs or not this year, I'm not sure. But he's pretty close.

Superdude
07-22-2006, 05:35 PM
Unless it's a big 12-to-6 curve, such as Bailey is said to have

I must be getting sucky seats. I can't hardly tell a fastball from a curveball.

redsfanmia
07-22-2006, 06:51 PM
I'd like to see Homer in September.........of 2007.
I want to see him in September............of 2011

StillFunkyB
07-23-2006, 09:33 AM
I must be getting sucky seats. I can't hardly tell a fastball from a curveball.

No, just watch carefully. It's a little more difficult to tell what type of pitch it is at some angles, but if watch the flight path of the ball, it's a little easier to pick out.

Knowing that Bailey has just the three pitches it should be pretty easy to pick them out. As well as someone stating that he throws more heat than anything else.

StillFunkyB
07-23-2006, 09:35 AM
I have heard lot of things over the years as well, and I'm no expert. I'm not a student of the game, but if you have a "live" fastball, and can locate said pitch, that your other pitches don't need to be good.

Is that still true?

IslandRed
07-23-2006, 12:00 PM
I have heard lot of things over the years as well, and I'm no expert. I'm not a student of the game, but if you have a "live" fastball, and can locate said pitch, that your other pitches don't need to be good.

Is that still true?

Well... yes and no.

I think people aren't exactly right when they say "you have to have other pitches to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball." Not when talking about an elite fastball. From everything I've ever heard coming out of hitters' mouths, if a pitcher's fastball is sufficiently fast, they HAVE to sit on it to have a chance, and they hope to be able to adjust to the offspeed stuff.

So for a pitcher like Bailey, the offspeed stuff isn't about keeping hitters from sitting on his fastball, it's about making them pay for sitting on it. And that's where the quality of the pitch comes in.

Marc D
07-23-2006, 05:57 PM
Well... yes and no.

I think people aren't exactly right when they say "you have to have other pitches to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball." Not when talking about an elite fastball. From everything I've ever heard coming out of hitters' mouths, if a pitcher's fastball is sufficiently fast, they HAVE to sit on it to have a chance, and they hope to be able to adjust to the offspeed stuff.

So for a pitcher like Bailey, the offspeed stuff isn't about keeping hitters from sitting on his fastball, it's about making them pay for sitting on it. And that's where the quality of the pitch comes in.

Agree 100% and the way you make them pay for guessing(or keep them from it) is to have other pitches that you can throw for strikes on any count. Thats really the essence to the whole thing.

Also when discussing "elite" fastballs, remember its more about movement than pure MPH. You can literally throw a ball 100 mph and if its straight as a string, MLB hitters will kill it.

I have a friend who could throw high 90's and was left handed. He had a very short MLB career(by lefty standards). By his own admission, his demise was due to hitters sitting dead red and to lack of great movement. His brother threw just as hard but had zero movement so he never even made the bigs. Both could tell you stories about dozens of other flame throwers who never even made it as far as they did.

Then you see the Arroyo's of the world and it becomes really clear. Keep the hitters honest by having multiple pitches you can control, and will throw at any time, and the odds swing very favorably toward the pitcher even if he has a mediocre fastball. If he's got a killer fastball and can drop a curve at any time for an out its scary. Add in a change that he trusts, and looks exactly like his fastball when delivered, then its almost unfair.

CRedsLarkin11
07-24-2006, 09:56 PM
Does anybody know his probable start dates? I'd like to ride over and take a look at him sometime.

michst
07-27-2006, 10:01 AM
Just a cool little lightning round in a chat on ESPN with Jim Callis:

"wendell: best stuff in the minors?

Jim Callis: Homer Bailey.

"

lollipopcurve
07-27-2006, 10:07 AM
So you can select any attribute you want and then have an enormous sucess rate in predicting failure based on that attribute, be it brushing your teeth or "aggressive promotion".

Amen, Jax.

lollipopcurve
07-27-2006, 10:10 AM
If he's got a killer fastball and can drop a curve at any time for an out its scary. Add in a change that he trusts, and looks exactly like his fastball when delivered, then its almost unfair.

Verlander territory.

I think that's the direction they're trying to push Bailey in.

puca
07-27-2006, 10:12 AM
I want to see him in September............of 2011

By 2011, I'm hoping to see him in late October myself.

kaldaniels
07-28-2006, 12:25 AM
My attitude is this...if we have a decent shot in September at the playoffs (some seem to forget how long ago our last playoff visit was), we call him up, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle and ride it to the WS. Go for broke!!!

cincyinco
07-28-2006, 03:59 AM
Sure worked with the angels and Krod.. ;)

NewEraReds
07-29-2006, 12:30 PM
I've always been on the don't rush him boat. But if he continues this kind of domination in AA for the rest of this season and starts off the April and May next season in AAA in the same fashion, then he really has nothing left to prove in the majors. But this year should be completely out, IMO.
ask milwaukees closer how it is in the bigs when all you throw is a 97mph fastball. you can get by it in aa, not in the bigs. let this kid learn how to pitch and to control other pitches and learn to do all the things he will need to do to be the pitcher we all think he can be when he gets to cincy

Marc D
07-29-2006, 01:20 PM
ask milwaukees closer how it is in the bigs when all you throw is a 97mph fastball. you can get by it in aa, not in the bigs. let this kid learn how to pitch and to control other pitches and learn to do all the things he will need to do to be the pitcher we all think he can be when he gets to cincy


Turnbows issue is more a lack of control imo. He can't throw anything but a fastball for a strike and his fastball catches too much of the plate when he does get it over.

The net result is that right now hitters know its either going to be a fastball right down broadway(albeit 98mph) or a ball. Tough to make a living pitching like that.

MWM
07-29-2006, 01:54 PM
In all fairness, Turnbow was never that good even in the minors. He was a starter his first three years down there, and when he was a year older than Homer, he was still in A ball. That year as a 21 year old is the only good year he had in the minors. He wasn't very good at all the rest of the time.

kaldaniels
07-31-2006, 09:31 AM
When is Bailey's next start???