I'm Really Liking This Trade

[He's Dunn It]

I was the first to cry "rape" when I heard it announced, but there's something energizing about playing for an owner and GM who say they're not going to accept another crap .500 season and disappointment for the fans. We've got a new ballpark...new ownership...a new GM...and a (re)newed commitment to winning like we did in the 70s.

I've got to think the boys are excited about the type of ball they've been playing since the all star break. Sweep the Roxs four straight, kicking them when they're down after our 1-8 brutal stretch. Play the Mets close and have every opportunity to win the series and still win one game. Beat up on a closer who's had the fork inserted into him in late June. Play in front of a SRO crowd on a Saturday in July even if Joe Mays is pitching and gear up to smack the Astros around.

We're up in the Wildcard and the Cards are very beatable. The Mets are tough, the NL West is a joke again. We really could make a big run this October.

There has to be a renewed sense of hope among these players that this isn't Uncle Carl's team and the town of Cincinnati is ready to support a team that is willing to make a run at it.

Maybe I've had too much Red Cool Aid, but I really think this team could make a run at things. If nothing else, I'm rooting for the Reds and not just my fantasy league team come September.

I love the fact we have a GM who's willing to pull the trigger to get something done this year without killing us in the future. (I'm glad we got Juan Guzman, but I'd love to have BJ Ryan right now...) I like our offense still and we've got someone who can get outs after the 6th inning now.

Junior sounds pumped on WLW right now. I really think this team is ready to make a run at things without another trade. Everyone--I mean everyone--needs starting pitching right now. Look at some of the pussballers the Mets and Cardinals are running out there right now. The Yankees think Ponson is worth a shot...Weaver gets his hat handed to him...

Better defense...Decent pitching...Team chemistry of the guys being excited... Come from behind victories on Wednesday and Friday...

What do you think?

Happy to be a Reds fan for the first time in 10 years...

Matt

[cincy09]

nice post, nights like this help everyone believe just a little bit more.....
Why not this team

[RedsMan3203]

I'm happy to a Reds and Bengals fan everyday I wake up.

[dsmith421]

I was the first to cry "rape" when I heard it announced,


What the hell is that supposed to mean?

[VI_RedsFan]

What the hell is that supposed to mean?

He means when he first heard about the trade, he hated it and thought we got "raped" in it by Jimbo.

[Z-Fly]

I was always for the concept of just get as many hitters as possible. Don't worry about pitching and Defense that much. And just out slug the other team. Just like jimbo I was very wrong. So this trade makes us move in the opposite direction. That is a good thing. I must say, in wayne I trust.

[Spitball]

Better defense...Decent pitching...Team chemistry of the guys being excited... Come from behind victories on Wednesday and Friday...


These are the keys, and I don't understand why the national media, for the most part, has so completely missed the point of the trade. Sure Krivsky paid high price but the ship was sinking with the lack of depth and quality in the bullpen. Now, there is the depth to reshuffle bullpen roles and limit the middle inning failures. Halaluaia!

The Steve Phillips and other national media types have taken a very surface value look at this trade. They have not looked at the overall improvement of the team's bullpen depth nor the defensive improvement. And, unless a player writes something on the clubhouse wall, they rarely recognize team chemistry.

Baseball is a team game and Krivsky improved the team. Bowden got the positive publicity he loves so much, but Krisky made the move that has his team winning again.

[Maldez]

I'm glad we got a GM who has the balls to pull-off a trade like this. We won't know which team got the better of the deal for 2 or 3 years, but I admire Krivsky's guts.

[StillFunkyB]

I was always for the concept of just get as many hitters as possible. Don't worry about pitching and Defense that much. And just out slug the other team. Just like jimbo I was very wrong. So this trade makes us move in the opposite direction. That is a good thing. I must say, in wayne I trust.

John Hart says hi.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Since the trade:

Felipe Lopez:
4-29 (.138 AVG) 1 RBI 4 BB 9 K's

Austin Kearns:
4-21 (.190 AVG) 0 RBI 7 BB 5 K's

Combined:
8-50 (.160AVG) 1 RBI 11 BB 14 K's

Ryan Wagner AAA Zephyrs:
4 Games (5 Inn.) 4 ER 7 Hits 2 BB 2 K's 7.20 ERA

(Using stats from BigREDSfaninKY post about our bullpen since the trade):

25 Inn 24 Hits 10 ER 7 BB 22 K's 4-1 W-L 1 Save 3.60 ERA

If the media can't look at the facts since the deal and see that so far the Reds got the better of the deal(So far..). And also since the deal this is how each team has fared:

Reds: 6 W - 2 L
Nationals: 3 W - 4 L

Forgot to mention Royce Clayton:

9-23 (.391 AVG) 7 Game Hit Streak 4 RBI's 2 BB 6 K's 2 SB

[Krusty]

I'll say it again....you can really judge this trade till three years from now. See who has more of an impact in 2007 and 2008 with the players involved.

[Handofdeath]

What is funny is that Reds fans KNOW what kind of GM Bowden is and how easy he is to be taken advantage of. He has NEVER come out of a trade looking good in the end. But still a lot of people complained about this trade. Reds fans this will be your revenge. The circle is now completing.

[BigRed]

I also like the trade, although I really hated to give up Kearns, who was having the best year of his career. I do think that they need to make another trade before the deadline. I believe that they need another starter. A power bat for the bench would be nice, too.

[DropDocK]

These are the keys, and I don't understand why the national media, for the most part, has so completely missed the point of the trade.


Cause the slugs are enamored with the Astros, Clemens and their subsequent deal for Huff taking their "rightful place" in the division!

[Spitball]

I'll say it again....you can really judge this trade till three years from now. See who has more of an impact in 2007 and 2008 with the players involved.

Hmmm...I'm not so sure. Like the B.J.Ryan for Juan Guzman deal, this one could be judged a winner if the Reds' bullpen becomes reliable for the remainder of this season and the Reds remain in contention.

The positive ramifications of contending for the remainder of this season could be far reacing in creating a successful franchise in Cincinnati. A pennant race endears a team to its community. As a kid, I remember walking up to the gates at Fenway Park and getting great box seats. Then the 1967 pennant race changed all that forever because since that year, Red Sox tickets of any kind are very hard to come by. The Reds need to endear themselves to their community so that they sellout that park every night. A solid and loyal fanbase would increase revenue and create an expectation of quality on the field.

This team and Cincinnati need a pennant race to reestablish a solid baseball community that has been missing due to years of poor teams and rebuilding programs.

[ChatterRed]

Either play Freel 4 to 5 times per week in the OF or trade for Reggie Sanders as a stopgap for the rest of the season. We need another bat in the lineup. Freel has no power, so Sanders might be the best option.

Yet, I'll never forget his K's in the postseason years back for the Reds.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

I'll say it again....you can really judge this trade till three years from now. See who has more of an impact in 2007 and 2008 with the players involved.

This is true. But this particular deal was made with the goal of helping us right now, and that's winning games in July '06, not May '08. And since the Reds probably would have lost one or two of these 6 post-All Star break wins by allowing tack-on runs (last night vs. the Beers, Sunday vs. the Rocks), this trade has, so far at least, worked out.

So I think we can judge this trade this year. We can even start to judge it now. This team was going nowhere fast with Kearns and Lopez. It may still go nowhere in the end, but at least it has a better chance than before.

[fearofpopvol1]

What is funny is that Reds fans KNOW what kind of GM Bowden is and how easy he is to be taken advantage of. He has NEVER come out of a trade looking good in the end. But still a lot of people complained about this trade. Reds fans this will be your revenge. The circle is now completing.

I wouldn't go that far. Griffey Jr. (at least at the time) was pretty impressive. Landing Soriano is hardly a disappointment either.

[RedEye]

Since the trade:

If the media can't look at the facts since the deal and see that so far the Reds got the better of the deal(So far..). And also since the deal this is how each team has fared:

Reds: 6 W - 2 L
Nationals: 3 W - 4 L

Why didn't you post Majewski's 22.50 ERA while you're busy showing the ineptitude of Kearns and Lopez? The deal hasn't really worked, statistically speaking, for either club so far. Of course, those Reds bullpen stats are due to Standridge, Mercker, and others returning to form, and not to Majewski and Bray, who I believe entering yesterday's game had ONE scoreless outing BETWEEN them. Some might argue that the Denorfia factor has contributed to Reds wins... and I suppose that 2-run single did help (although it was largely luck, even more than other lucky hits I've seen).

It makes me laugh when people keep frantically compiling stats for Kearns and Lopez, as if they will somehow get the proof that the trade was okay for the team, and that Krivsky somehow waved his magic chemistry wand over them. There are SERIOUS sample size problems in doing this. Further, to post the two teams' records really doesn't say much about the deal either, since the Nats weren't really trying to change their current win-loss record with this deal, and since they were out of it before the talks even began.

I do like the Reds' 6-2 record since The Trade, but there is ZERO evidence that they would have been any worse with Kearns and Lopez in the line-up. Ironically, the biggest difference makers so far have arguably been Clayton's numbers at the plate (the good field, no-hit throw-in) and Guardado's domino effect at the end of the bullpen as a firey closer. These two aren't really even part of the "two regulars for two relievers" debates that have been going on since July 13th.

Let's all calm down and let this deal lie for awhile. No matter how many stats we post, no matter how badly Austin and FeLo do in RFK, we're not going to be able to see much of a significant sample size for quite some time. I agree with the posters who say we need to wait 2 to 3 years before we really analyze this deal... and that's not going to change in a week, two weeks, or even two months.

[Johnny Footstool]

Since the trade:

Felipe Lopez:
4-29 (.138 AVG) 1 RBI 4 BB 9 K's

Austin Kearns:
4-21 (.190 AVG) 0 RBI 7 BB 5 K's

Combined:
8-50 (.160AVG) 1 RBI 11 BB 14 K's

Ryan Wagner AAA Zephyrs:
4 Games (5 Inn.) 4 ER 7 Hits 2 BB 2 K's 7.20 ERA

(Using stats from BigREDSfaninKY post about our bullpen since the trade):

25 Inn 24 Hits 10 ER 7 BB 22 K's 4-1 W-L 1 Save 3.60 ERA

If the media can't look at the facts since the deal and see that so far the Reds got the better of the deal(So far..). And also since the deal this is how each team has fared:

Reds: 6 W - 2 L
Nationals: 3 W - 4 L

Don't forget:

Majewski - 3 IP, 15.00 ERA, 8 hits, 1 BB, 4 K, 5 ER

Bray has been a different story, with an excellent 2.45 ERA in 3.2 IPs.

But as RedEye pointed out, we're looking at the tiniest of sample sizes. So how about we refrain from making judgements based on a week's worth of stats?

[Handofdeath]

From the Dayton newspaper


Not a Dunn deal

Nearly a week after the trade of Austin Kearns, his best friend, Adam Dunn still can't bring himself to talk about it.

"My mom always taught me if you can't say anything good about something, don't say anything at all," said Dunn, saying all he needed to say.

Dunn said he talks with Kearns regularly, "Every day, every stinking day. And he tells me every day how miserable he is in Washington."


Adam Dunn would be wise to be a pro and say " No comment" when asked about the trade. He's also making it harder on his buddy in Washington saying how miserable he is. Splitting these two up may have been a good thing.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

I agree with the posters who say we need to wait 2 to 3 years before we really analyze this deal... and that's not going to change in a week, two weeks, or even two months.

This trade wasn't made to help us in 2-3 years, it was made to help us NOW. We didn't deal for prospects. If Magic and Bray go 0-13 for the rest of this year but win 3 Cy Young awards from 07-09, that's not helping us win this year (although I would gladly take that). And in three years it's quite likely that many of the principles in this trade may be in uniforms that say things other than Cincinnati or Washington.

If, in three years, we look back and these three things have happened:

1. The relievers the Reds got in the trade helped to solidify a horrid bullpen and pushed the Reds to a division title or wildcard;

2. Clayton, Magewski and Bray are all gone;

3. Lopez and Kearns are solid, if not perennial All Stars

will the trade have been a success? Depends on which of those three points you dwell on. But the trade was made with goal No. 1 in mind.

[Ltlabner]

I was at part of the game last night. I will sadly admit that I left about the 5th because I was with my father who was exhasted. We're going back tonight also.

Anyway, I think some intagable benefits from the trade might have been realized last night. EZ wasn't having a great night and the Brew Crew was hitting a lot of hits. But they wern't power hits for homers, lots of infield hits, and short outfiled hits. I think the "extra defence" helped to keep it one run per inning and kept the runs to a minumum. That's very subjective and I fully admit that, but there were a lot of plays that may have let one run score, but kept several for scoring.

For example, there was a double play that let the runner advance to 3B. The runner scored but then another out was quickly registered. So while the run scored, it could have easily turned into one of those horrific 5 run innings.

Anyway, that's subjective but I think it gets to the heart of what Kriv is aiming at. And I'm most definatley not saying this means the trade is a win.

[TeamBoone]

Since the trade:

Felipe Lopez:
4-29 (.138 AVG) 1 RBI 4 BB 9 K's

Austin Kearns:
4-21 (.190 AVG) 0 RBI 7 BB 5 K's

Combined:
8-50 (.160AVG) 1 RBI 11 BB 14 K's

Ryan Wagner AAA Zephyrs:
4 Games (5 Inn.) 4 ER 7 Hits 2 BB 2 K's 7.20 ERA

(Using stats from BigREDSfaninKY post about our bullpen since the trade):

25 Inn 24 Hits 10 ER 7 BB 22 K's 4-1 W-L 1 Save 3.60 ERA

If the media can't look at the facts since the deal and see that so far the Reds got the better of the deal(So far..). And also since the deal this is how each team has fared:

Reds: 6 W - 2 L
Nationals: 3 W - 4 L

You see, this kind of stuff makes me angry, an angrier still when it comes so early.

Why does either team have to win? Or lose?

Why can't it be successful if each team has fulfilled a need without hurting their team?

It's just nuts that someone has to "win". IMHO, as long as their is no loser, each team wins.

FWIW, Austin has hit a HR today (1 for 2 so far) and Felipe is 1 for 2 as well. I for one am happy for them and hope they find success with their new team. Success will make them happier... well, as happy as anyone can be who is traded to a last place team just when their "old" team seems to be turning the page to success.

[BCubb2003]

You see, this kind of stuff makes me angry, an angrier still when it comes so early.

Why does either team have to win? Or lose?

Why can't it be successful if each team has fulfilled a need without hurting their team?

It's just nuts that someone has to "win". IMHO, as long as their is no loser, each team wins.


I agree. By the way, Kearns is outhitting Denorfia since the trade...

[jimbo]

You see, this kind of stuff makes me angry, an angrier still when it comes so early.

Why does either team have to win? Or lose?

Why can't it be successful if each team has fulfilled a need without hurting their team?

It's just nuts that someone has to "win". IMHO, as long as their is no loser, each team wins.

FWIW, Austin has hit a HR today (1 for 2 so far) and Felipe is 1 for 2 as well. I for one am happy for them and hope they find success with their new team. Success will make them happier... well, as happy as anyone can be who is traded to a last place team just when their "old" team seems to be turning the page to success.


I agree. I'm certainly not hoping that Kearns and Lopez fails in Washington. I was really happy for Kearns today when he hit his home run. It shouldn't be about who "wins" the trade, but that it benefits both teams and in this trade, I think it ultimately will.

[Unassisted]

It's simply not possible to judge a trade of so many players through the lens of a few days or weeks. Declaring winners and losers in a trade is simply fodder that gives the sports talkers, sports bloggers, and even us forum posters something to discuss endlessly and argue about. All of that chatter may be good entertainment, but in the end, it has as much knowledge value as a box of donuts has nutritional value.

http://www.gfra.de/usfood/postamt/donuts.jpg

[RedEye]

This trade wasn't made to help us in 2-3 years, it was made to help us NOW. We didn't deal for prospects. If Magic and Bray go 0-13 for the rest of this year but win 3 Cy Young awards from 07-09, that's not helping us win this year (although I would gladly take that). And in three years it's quite likely that many of the principles in this trade may be in uniforms that say things other than Cincinnati or Washington.

If, in three years, we look back and these three things have happened:

1. The relievers the Reds got in the trade helped to solidify a horrid bullpen and pushed the Reds to a division title or wildcard;

2. Clayton, Magewski and Bray are all gone;

3. Lopez and Kearns are solid, if not perennial All Stars

will the trade have been a success? Depends on which of those three points you dwell on. But the trade was made with goal No. 1 in mind.

When you put it this way, I agree. Without perspective #1 (trying to win now), the trade REALLY doesn't make any sense for Wayne and co. All I'm trying to point out is that it is pretty fruitless to try to track Austin and Felipe's statistical results in Washington as a measure for the trade's success. That's as if people are trying to say "See! See! They aren't doing that well anyway, so they wouldn't be helping us now!" Obviously, that argument does nothing but dump on two of our old players, and lends nothing to the measurement of the 'success' of the trade. If you want to analyze the trade's ability to help us NOW, then post some analysis of the stats that Magic and Bray have put up in the bullpen, not stats about Austin and Felipe sucking in RFK.

[RedEye]

I love the fact we have a GM who's willing to pull the trigger to get something done this year without killing us in the future. (I'm glad we got Juan Guzman, but I'd love to have BJ Ryan right now...) I like our offense still and we've got someone who can get outs after the 6th inning now.
Matt

I'm as happy as the next guy that we are winning a few games, don't get me wrong. But I fail to see your logic here, especially since we gave up two 26 year-olds who have most of their careers ahead of them. This team's future isn't just in the minor leagues. In fact, one could easily argue that Kearns and Lopez were MORE valuable than Ryan was at the time of the Guzman trade (and definitely more valuable than Bailey, Bruce, Votto, etc.) because they have SUCCEEDED in the majors to some degree. If trading two of your most valuable commodities for mediocre returns isn't "killing the future" than I don't know what is.

Let's hope this new bullpen does get us to the playoffs, because if it doesn't then Kearns and Lopez will be even harder to watch next year.

[Krusty]

This is true. But this particular deal was made with the goal of helping us right now, and that's winning games in July '06, not May '08. And since the Reds probably would have lost one or two of these 6 post-All Star break wins by allowing tack-on runs (last night vs. the Beers, Sunday vs. the Rocks), this trade has, so far at least, worked out.

So I think we can judge this trade this year. We can even start to judge it now. This team was going nowhere fast with Kearns and Lopez. It may still go nowhere in the end, but at least it has a better chance than before.

You can judge the trade this season and say it was a success if the Reds make the playoffs. If two years from now the Reds have Bray as the closer and Harris as the everyday second baseman, then no question the Reds will be the ones who fleeced the Nationals.

[He's Dunn It]

I think you can make a judgment about this trade without having to look months or even years into the future.. You certainly can do it from a morale standpoint...even though I don't pretend to know what's going through the player's minds or the mood in the clubhouse.

Let's say I work for an Internet provider and it's 2004. We buy and resell dial-up to the local "small market" community and don't make much profit doing it. Everyone is doing this "new" high speed Internet stuff. I just work there and collect a paycheck, but I've been supportive and a good worker for years.

The boss could go one of two ways: Keep offering the same basic crap stuff we have and complain about how it's so hard for small businesses when his business goes belly up in two years.

Or the boss could make a move and add cell phones or installing The Dish Network and High Speed Internet at a small profit he's not in control of. It costs a lot to stock all that product at the expense of some of the boss' dial up stuff.... It hurts to make that move for a bunch of reasons, but he's going to try something because the best definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Which boss am I more likely to be fired up about working for and invest myself more into the business and go the extra mile? For the dude sitting on a losing horse and riding it to the glue factory, or the guy who's gonna try some new stuff, realizing that either way you cut it I might not have a job in two years.

I love...love...LOVE that we have a GM who's going to pull the trigger to try and have us win this year. Maybe we are beginning to have the symptoms of being a Cubs' fan...it's been a few years and we can't remember what it's like to be in a race in September.

I don't care if Wayne's World makes a Milt Pappas like trade in the future because the guy wants to win and doesn't care if trading your starting shortstop and rightfielder for two middle relievers looks bad or not. The team needed some arms in the bullpen or we were headed toward the land of the Pirates...so he went out and got them, even if it cost a bunch--perhaps too much.

Of course the sample size is too small and what Lopez and Kearns do in Washington doesn't really matter. What does matter is the expectation that I'm now playing for an organization that won't sit back and hope it all works out and if it doesn't, the fans will still show up and I'll collect my paycheck anyway.

I realize in this free agent driven baseball market there isn't much in the way of organizational loyality or even pride, but I think this deal has some guys saying, "We've got a GM, an owner, and slowly a town (sellout on Satuday night) behind us."

In the words of Jake Taylor, "There's only one thing left to do....Win the whole ****ing thing!"

More Red Cool Aid please,
Matt

[RedEye]

The boss could go one of two ways: Keep offering the same basic crap stuff we have and complain about how it's so hard for small businesses when his business goes belly up in two years.

Or the boss could make a move and add cell phones or installing The Dish Network and High Speed Internet at a small profit he's not in control of. It costs a lot to stock all that product at the expense of some of the boss' dial up stuff.... It hurts to make that move for a bunch of reasons, but he's going to try something because the best definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Which boss am I more likely to be fired up about working for and invest myself more into the business and go the extra mile? For the dude sitting on a losing horse and riding it to the glue factory, or the guy who's gonna try some new stuff, realizing that either way you cut it I might not have a job in two years.



Yeah, but what if a week after he adds the Dish Network and Highspeed (Majik and Bray), you all realize that the "costs to stock and profit" (Kearns and Lopez) actually could have been averted if he'd waited just a bit longer (until other teams start dealing their middle relievers for lesser prospects). Suddenly, a new company (the Indians) offers part of the same service for the Dish Network (Wickman) for a fraction of the price (a minor league obscurity) of your Dish Network (Majik, for whom you gave up Kearns). The problem is, your company is stuck with the service you chose a week earlier while the boss down the block (the Braves) gets the same thing for much less. Are you still going to be drinking the cool aid, or are you going to spit it out in the water fountain in the hallway?

[oregonred]

Yeah, but what if a week after he adds the Dish Network and Highspeed (Majik and Bray), you all realize that the "costs to stock and profit" (Kearns and Lopez) actually could have been averted if he'd waited just a bit longer (until other teams start dealing their middle relievers for lesser prospects). Suddenly, a new company (the Indians) offers part of the same service for the Dish Network (Wickman) for a fraction of the price (a minor league obscurity) of your Dish Network (Majik, for whom you gave up Kearns). The problem is, your company is stuck with the service you chose a week earlier while the boss down the block (the Braves) gets the same thing for much less. Are you still going to be drinking the cool aid, or are you going to spit it out in the water fountain in the hallway?

Interesting analogy, but the Wickman trade actually compares to the Guardado one that Krivsky pulled off the week before. The Reds did fine in that deal (and got Seattle to kick in all but 800K of EvE's salary)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48898

Majik/Bray are different commodities -- maybe like ordering DirectTV with a 5-year dirt cheap contract.

[RedEye]

Interesting analogy, but the Wickman trade actually compares to the Guardado one that Krivsky pulled off the week before. The Reds did fine in that deal (and got Seattle to kick in all but 800K of EvE's salary)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48898

Majik/Bray are different commodities -- maybe like ordering DirectTV with a 5-year dirt cheap contract.

I guess I agree with you insomuch as both Eddie and Bob are closers. However, if you look at Majik and Wickman in terms of stats, they are VERY similar. And, if the major argument about this trade has to do with THIS YEAR, then Majik's age shouldn't enter into the equation since Wickman will at least be able to pitch in 2006 even though he is much older. IMO, we got the same DirectTV contract but for MUCH more per month.

[He's Dunn It]

[QUOTE=RedEye]you all realize that the "costs to stock and profit" (Kearns and Lopez) actually could have been averted if he'd waited just a bit longer (until other teams start dealing their middle relievers for lesser prospects). QUOTE]

I'm not sure that this has happened...or will happen. We'd have dropped a game or two to the Rockies and probably don't win last night without the move.

It will be interesting if Wayne's World is right about how hard it is to get pitching or not. When Ponson and Weaver are run out there by teams and organizations that everyone expected to win this year (Yankees and Cardinals), there really is a shortage of arms.

Quality middle relievers are pretty hard to find because everyone coming up wants to be a starter or a closer. I don't start out as a 23 year old middle reliever. Brian Reith and guys like him were starters thrown into the pen.

I don't mean to be an apologist for this trade...All I'm saying is that I think it sends a message to guys like Junior that we really want to...and are willing to spend for...winning this year. When was the last time in our club's history that's been true? Marge spent more on her blanking dogs than scouting, Uncle Carl didn't have a baseball clue...and in the 70s we grew the talent ourselves. 1990 was 16 years ago.

"...and candlesticks always make a good wedding gift. OK, let's get two"

Matt

[RedEye]

Quality middle relievers are pretty hard to find because everyone coming up wants to be a starter or a closer. I don't start out as a 23 year old middle reliever. Brian Reith and guys like him were starters thrown into the pen.

I don't mean to be an apologist for this trade...All I'm saying is that I think it sends a message to guys like Junior that we really want to...and are willing to spend for...winning this year. When was the last time in our club's history that's been true? Marge spent more on her blanking dogs than scouting, Uncle Carl didn't have a baseball clue...and in the 70s we grew the talent ourselves. 1990 was 16 years ago.

"...and candlesticks always make a good wedding gift. OK, let's get two"
Matt

I think in the spirit of good debate, we're becoming more polarized in our rhetoric than we are in our actual opinions. Bob is certainly lightyears ahead of Marge and Carl--you'll never get an argument from me there. I also like the fact that Kriv did something rather than nothing, but I think with Majik and Bray right now we are only breaking even at best. Sure, we've won a few games with them, but a few of these games we've won despite them (especially Majik). I think Everyday Eddie has had more of an impact than either of the others at this point, though that certainly could change in a hurry.

I have to disagree that MR are that hard to find. Sure, most pitchers who come up want to be starters or closers, but there are a lot of guys who are happy just to be in the big leagues. There are a lot of players who have big league stuff and just don't have starting big league stuff.

The beauty of the MR position from a GM's perspective is that it can often be filled with players who otherwise don't have the talent to be big league starters. They can be found inexpensively. Take Scott Linebrink, for example. He was a waiver wire pick up for the Pads a few years ago, and he basically bounced around until someone realized that his stuff was dominant enough to fool a hitter for 1-2 innings on a consistent basis. He needs the extra giddy-up on that fastball to make his other pitches effective, something that won't work as a starter. Although Linebrink couldn't necessarily start games for teams, he is a perfect MR... and there are a lot of them out there. I actually think we have a few already on our team (Claussen and Belisle) who fit that role. Each of those guys can be incredibly deceptive the first time you face him, and that's basically what it takes.

Even a Wickman or a King, both established relievers, could have been had for less than half the price we paid for Majik/Bray. That's why smart GM's never invest too heavily in MR... the market just doesn't demand it right now, and there is still a surplus of these guys out there.

I'm not saying Wayne is dumb. I'm just saying he was overzealous... and hoping that the parts we got in return will turn out to be more valuable in the years to come. If Bray converts to a solid starter or lights out closer, Harris plays into a role with the team, and Darryl Thompson becomes a legit prospect again, this trade could look much smarter very soon. But in terms of the two main chips we got for this year, it just doesn't look good right now to me.

[fearofpopvol1]

This trade wasn't made to help us in 2-3 years, it was made to help us NOW.

I disagree. I think it was made to help us now and moving forward.

Yes, now was the primary focus, but this will help us moving forward as well. It's not like we have a stockpile of potential relievers in the farm system. In addition, there is not a huge (available) reliever market either. I don't think Kriv would've given up that much for what they got in return if this was just for this season. Otherwise, we would look like sellers.

[DoogMinAmo]

You can judge the trade this season and say it was a success if the Reds make the playoffs. If two years from now the Reds have Bray as the closer and Harris as the everyday second baseman, then no question the Reds will be the ones who fleeced the Nationals.

Playing devil's advocate: Willie Greene was an everyday player for Reds once.

[buckeyenut]

I think in the spirit of good debate, we're becoming more polarized in our rhetoric than we are in our actual opinions. Bob is certainly lightyears ahead of Marge and Carl--you'll never get an argument from me there. I also like the fact that Kriv did something rather than nothing, but I think with Majik and Bray right now we are only breaking even at best. Sure, we've won a few games with them, but a few of these games we've won despite them (especially Majik). I think Everyday Eddie has had more of an impact than either of the others at this point, though that certainly could change in a hurry.

I have to disagree that MR are that hard to find. Sure, most pitchers who come up want to be starters or closers, but there are a lot of guys who are happy just to be in the big leagues. There are a lot of players who have big league stuff and just don't have starting big league stuff.

The beauty of the MR position from a GM's perspective is that it can often be filled with players who otherwise don't have the talent to be big league starters. They can be found inexpensively. Take Scott Linebrink, for example. He was a waiver wire pick up for the Pads a few years ago, and he basically bounced around until someone realized that his stuff was dominant enough to fool a hitter for 1-2 innings on a consistent basis. He needs the extra giddy-up on that fastball to make his other pitches effective, something that won't work as a starter. Although Linebrink couldn't necessarily start games for teams, he is a perfect MR... and there are a lot of them out there. I actually think we have a few already on our team (Claussen and Belisle) who fit that role. Each of those guys can be incredibly deceptive the first time you face him, and that's basically what it takes.

Even a Wickman or a King, both established relievers, could have been had for less than half the price we paid for Majik/Bray. That's why smart GM's never invest too heavily in MR... the market just doesn't demand it right now, and there is still a surplus of these guys out there.

I'm not saying Wayne is dumb. I'm just saying he was overzealous... and hoping that the parts we got in return will turn out to be more valuable in the years to come. If Bray converts to a solid starter or lights out closer, Harris plays into a role with the team, and Darryl Thompson becomes a legit prospect again, this trade could look much smarter very soon. But in terms of the two main chips we got for this year, it just doesn't look good right now to me.

I think you are misjudging the impact of the deal. This isn't about just Bray and Maj. This is about the pen and what Narron can do.

At this point, Narron has four options he KNOWS he can count on in the pen, Coffey, Bray, Maj, Guardado, and two more he can use in a pinch or be solid earlier in the game with Mercker and Weathers. Previously, it was Coffey and Weathers and when both of those guys were struggling, there was no hope.

All the bullpen guys are more well rested, he can go to the pen earlier with a viable option, and he has confidence in his bullpen 1 through 5. This is where you want to be with a pen. Before Eddie was picked up, no one on the team or the fans had any confidence in the pen and the entire pen felt the pressure.

Guardado is part of it as is Bray and Maj. But the biggest part is having the options you need to have.

[JohhnyBench1001]

Agreed. The true impact of this deal can't be seen just by looking at Bray and Magic's stats, because as you said there impact goes beyond that. Instead of having Coffey have to close games now he is ONE of 4 who can go out in situation. We got a bullpen with these 2 moves, and before that we simply didn't have one. If you want to see if this trade made a difference or not, look at the bullpen ERA pre-trade vs. post trade in about a month, and compare the 2. I got a feeling you'll walk away with a new prespective on this deal. You can look at the run production pre trade vs post trade, as well as defensive efficiency. Imo you are going to see a dramatic difference in BP ERA, and minimal differences in run production and defensive efficiency...........in laymen's terms the Reds should be a better team by makeing this move.

[RedEye]

I think you are misjudging the impact of the deal. This isn't about just Bray and Maj. This is about the pen and what Narron can do.

At this point, Narron has four options he KNOWS he can count on in the pen, Coffey, Bray, Maj, Guardado, and two more he can use in a pinch or be solid earlier in the game with Mercker and Weathers. Previously, it was Coffey and Weathers and when both of those guys were struggling, there was no hope.

All the bullpen guys are more well rested, he can go to the pen earlier with a viable option, and he has confidence in his bullpen 1 through 5. This is where you want to be with a pen. Before Eddie was picked up, no one on the team or the fans had any confidence in the pen and the entire pen felt the pressure.

Guardado is part of it as is Bray and Maj. But the biggest part is having the options you need to have.

Okay, fine... it's about the options you need to have. But Wayne still could have gotten those options for a cheaper price!

[ThornWithin81]

I think that in the end, the trade is going to turn out to be a pretty even deal.

I'm not sold on Majewski yet, but Bray, in my opinion, is going to be our Closer within the next few years, when Everyday Eddie isn't around anymore. Clayton has been absolutely clutch for us since the trade, and despite giving away two "everyday starters" in Lopez and Kearns, our run scoring has not suffered.

I never really liked Kearns, and got tired of watching FLop (An old nickname for him back before he was any good at all) commit errors in the field.

I think Wayne made the right move, and I applaud him for getting it done.

[dsmith421]

He means when he first heard about the trade, he hated it and thought we got "raped" in it by Jimbo.

I know what he meant.

[REDREAD]

. He [Bowden] has NEVER come out of a trade looking good in the end. .

Disagree. How about:

Shaw for Konerko/Reyes
R Sanders for Vaughn
Boone for Neagle
Deion Sanders for Burba + others
He got Todd Walker for junk (was it soon to be nontendered Reese and a minor leaguer?)
Sorainao for Wilkerson
And there's others I can't recall immediately.

Bowden has made plenty of good trades. Naturally, he made a few stinkers, but you can't say he's never come out of a trade looking good. He's above average at making trades compared to his peers. He has weaknesses as a GM, but trading isn't one of them.

[puca]

Dave Burba for Sean Casey....

[TRF]

What is funny is that Reds fans KNOW what kind of GM Bowden is and how easy he is to be taken advantage of. He has NEVER come out of a trade looking good in the end. But still a lot of people complained about this trade. Reds fans this will be your revenge. The circle is now completing.
Never looked good? please. JimBo's weakness was in evaluating YOUNG SP. He always put together a good BP, and he pillaged the Indians. Dave Burba for Sean Casey springs to mind. Others:

1995

Traded Ricky Pickett, John Roper, Deion Sanders, Scott Service, and David McCarty to the San Francisco Giants. Received Mark Portugal, Darren Lewis, and Dave Burba.

Traded a player to be named later, C.J. Nitkowski, and Dave Tuttle (minors) to the Detroit Tigers. Received David Wells. The Cincinnati Reds sent Mark Lewis (November 16, 1995) to the Detroit Tigers to complete the trade.

1997

Traded Jeff Branson and John Smiley to the Cleveland Indians. Received Jim Crowell, Danny Graves, Damian Jackson, and Scott Winchester.

Traded Mike Kelly to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Received a player to be named later. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays sent Dmitri Young (November 18, 1997) to the Cincinnati Reds to complete the trade.

1998

Traded Jeff Shaw to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Paul Konerko and Dennys Reyes.

Traded Willie Greene to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Jeffrey Hammonds.

Traded Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger to the Atlanta Braves. Received Rob Bell, Denny Neagle, and Michael Tucker.


These are just a few of JimBo's deals. Some he absolutely pillaged other clubs, some helped both terams. He lost a few too. His weakness has always been undervaluing pitching to a degree. Trading with JimBo now, and not getting Jon Rauch was a mistake, IMO. But make no mistake, JimBo will win more than his share of trades.

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

Why didn't you post Majewski's 22.50 ERA while you're busy showing the ineptitude of Kearns and Lopez? The deal hasn't really worked, statistically speaking, for either club so far. Of course, those Reds bullpen stats are due to Standridge, Mercker, and others returning to form, and not to Majewski and Bray, who I believe entering yesterday's game had ONE scoreless outing BETWEEN them. Some might argue that the Denorfia factor has contributed to Reds wins... and I suppose that 2-run single did help (although it was largely luck, even more than other lucky hits I've seen).

It makes me laugh when people keep frantically compiling stats for Kearns and Lopez, as if they will somehow get the proof that the trade was okay for the team, and that Krivsky somehow waved his magic chemistry wand over them. There are SERIOUS sample size problems in doing this. Further, to post the two teams' records really doesn't say much about the deal either, since the Nats weren't really trying to change their current win-loss record with this deal, and since they were out of it before the talks even began.

I do like the Reds' 6-2 record since The Trade, but there is ZERO evidence that they would have been any worse with Kearns and Lopez in the line-up. Ironically, the biggest difference makers so far have arguably been Clayton's numbers at the plate (the good field, no-hit throw-in) and Guardado's domino effect at the end of the bullpen as a firey closer. These two aren't really even part of the "two regulars for two relievers" debates that have been going on since July 13th.

Let's all calm down and let this deal lie for awhile. No matter how many stats we post, no matter how badly Austin and FeLo do in RFK, we're not going to be able to see much of a significant sample size for quite some time. I agree with the posters who say we need to wait 2 to 3 years before we really analyze this deal... and that's not going to change in a week, two weeks, or even two months.

I think the point of the post was to show the ability to judge the trade now rather than three years down the road. If you look at what the trade does for the team, it not only helps us in an area we needed help in(the bullpen), it also gave us a couple young relievers we can use for years to come. Not to say that Kearns and FeLo also would not be around but they are going to get exspensive. In the past we have spent our free agent money on aging relievers in the off season, next year we will be able to spend our money on an outfielder that stays healthy and cares about working hard and getting better, and a shortstop that can field and hit. Maybe those players are in our system already( brandon Phillips, Deno ) and maybe they are not, if they are then the money can be spent on a top notch pitcher. Imagine it Harang, Arroyo, insert free agent stud, Homer, and Ez as the 5th man, WOW.