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View Full Version : I look forward to seeing Homer Bailey vs. Brewers on July 28



princeton
07-22-2006, 07:39 PM
I was wondering if the Reds wouldn't start Homer in two games vs Brewers on 22nd and 28th, just because they need to know where they stand going into July 31 trade deadline.

I was wrong about the 22nd, but still wonder about the 28th.

Bailey family should be on standby

PuffyPig
07-22-2006, 07:45 PM
Stop wondering, he ain't starting anytime soon.

princeton
07-22-2006, 07:48 PM
Stop wondering, he ain't starting anytime soon.

that's good to know. I'd miss Mays in that spot. He's allowed me to relive the best moments of Dave Williams

dabvu2498
07-22-2006, 07:49 PM
It must be discussed.

Matt700wlw
07-22-2006, 07:51 PM
It must be discussed.

I'm sure it will be discussed...but it will probably be nothing more than that right now.

But....you never know!

Falls City Beer
07-22-2006, 08:01 PM
As I always say: "Challenge thy pitchers."

LoganBuck
07-22-2006, 08:25 PM
As I always say: "Challenge thy pitchers."
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

KronoRed
07-22-2006, 08:30 PM
As I always say: "Challenge thy pitchers."
I tell them to work on their breaking pitches first :devil:

redsrule2500
07-22-2006, 08:42 PM
Why not? This is stupid putting out guaranteed terrible when you have possible mediocre.

Heath
07-22-2006, 08:54 PM
Why not? This is stupid putting out guaranteed terrible when you have possible mediocre.

or guaranteed shellshock.

realreds1
07-22-2006, 10:02 PM
Why not? This is stupid putting out guaranteed terrible when you have possible mediocre.

Mike Harkey says hello.

flyer85
07-22-2006, 10:10 PM
After seeing Mays in person for the 3rd time this year I am for anything that keeps from seeing him agWhen you ain't good enough to pitch for the Royals, you ain't good enough to pitch for ...

Krusty
07-22-2006, 11:04 PM
I'm all for replacing Mays but not at the expense of Homer Bailey. The earliest we should see Bailey is around June 2007. We have a gem. Let's not have another first round pitcher blow up on us!

RedlegJake
07-23-2006, 12:10 AM
Not just yet, I think, but the pressure will keep building if Homer keeps dominating - my qualm is that he is using his fastball and in your face aggressiveness to get it done. That won't be enough in the majors. He'll get some big K's but ML hitters will eventually hammer him if he doesn't have quality secondary pitches to set up his heat. From all reports that's why Krivsky isn't ready to promote him yet.

If the Reds are going to call up a live armed prospect I'd rather see Dumatrait - he might be ready for a look anyway, he's a bit older and more experienced. His numbers aren't good enough to knock the door down but he absolutely can't do worse than Mays. Worst case is he gets some exposure, ala Ramirez, and comes back next year with a much better idea. I just wish you could combine Elizardo's mental makeup with Dumatrait's arm.

Germano would be the safer choice but I've got no confidence his stuff is good enough to be any better than Mays or Belisle would be.

CrackerJack
07-23-2006, 12:35 AM
Maybe a better question is when will Bailey go to AAA?

Aronchis
07-23-2006, 12:47 AM
Bailey shouldn't see AAA to next year when he hopefully is more refined. He is fine where he is now.

He only has 30-40 innings left on the season, then a trip to Bermuda for rest before the instructional league.............

CrackerJack
07-23-2006, 12:52 AM
Bailey shouldn't see AAA to next year when he hopefully is more refined. He is fine where he is now.

He only has 30-40 innings left on the season, then a trip to Bermuda for rest before the instructional league.............

I just think Krivsky will promote him to AAA before he puts him in a Reds' uni - be it this year or next.

BrooklynRedz
07-23-2006, 01:33 AM
Triple A is a waste for a player like Bailey. Let him finish the season in Double A, rest the arm, get him into a top-notch off-season training program and enter Spring Training as a serious shot to make the rotation. If he doesn't make the rotation, make him the long man in the bullpen. Get him some non-pressure situations and let him get acclimated to life in the bigs with the occassional spot start.

It's important to remember that regardless of what Bailey ever actually becomes, he must remain a mystery before he becomes a failure.

GAC
07-23-2006, 05:42 AM
or guaranteed shellshock.

Exactly. I don't go along with this logic of "Give it a shot What else have we got to lose?" mentality when it comes to very young ballplayers. Especially a 20 yr old, who, just two years ago was pitching in high school.

And seeing the type of luck we've had with other 1st round picks, such as Howington, Gruler, and Basham, I have no problem with the course Krivsky is taking right now.

Yes, he has been on a roll; but he just got promoted to AA last month.

Maybe bring him up later in the season when they expand the rosters, and let him have a couple starts.

Ltlabner
07-23-2006, 07:37 AM
Does this mean Homer is starting to enter the relms of "man love" simular to Deno, and dare I say it, EE himself.

Teenaged boys will soon have Homer posters on their walls. Not that anybody on this board would do anything like that.

redsmetz
07-23-2006, 08:22 AM
I'm all for replacing Mays but not at the expense of Homer Bailey. The earliest we should see Bailey is around June 2007. We have a gem. Let's not have another first round pitcher blow up on us!

You know this has been my thought the last couple of days. Finish out the year with good success at AA, open next year at Louisville and get a June call-up. There is absolutely no need to rush this kid.

And yes, he needs to establish a breaking pitch to make that blazing fastball all the more troubling. If he comes to the bigs without a third pitch, they'll be teeing on his fastball so much he'll need a neck brace jerking his head around watching them fly.

princeton
07-23-2006, 09:02 AM
it's not the best thing for him, but I'd probably have had Bailey in the major league bullpen beginning with the Milwaukee series, and into LA and Milwaukee again. It's a nice stretch against reasonable teams, and Narron can probably find some reasonably low-stress situations for him.

if Krivsky thinks that he can find a reasonable substitute for Homer, then that's even better. But so far, all that I'm seeing is Joe Mays.

redsmetz
07-23-2006, 09:17 AM
it's not the best thing for him, but I'd probably have had Bailey in the major league bullpen beginning with the Milwaukee series, and into LA and Milwaukee again. It's a nice stretch against reasonable teams, and Narron can probably find some reasonably low-stress situations for him.

if Krivsky thinks that he can find a reasonable substitute for Homer, then that's even better. But so far, all that I'm seeing is Joe Mays.

This bullpen doesn't need Bailey at this point and it would be a detriment to his development, IMO. I think we will no longer see Joe Mays in a Reds uniform. Expect one of the guys from AAA or perhaps Belisle when he returns. That would help and it would not hurt the development of young players like Bailey.

princeton
07-23-2006, 09:22 AM
This bullpen doesn't need Bailey at this point.

the Reds need Bailey if he can be made ready.

the best way to ready Bailey would be with a major league bullpen stint.

redsfanmia
07-23-2006, 10:02 AM
I think we should keep Bailey in the minors until he hurts his arm so we never get to see him wear a Reds uniform.

KronoRed
07-23-2006, 03:04 PM
I think we should keep Bailey in the minors until he hurts his arm so we never get to see him wear a Reds uniform.
Nah..much better to have him hurt it up in the majors :evil:

realreds1
07-23-2006, 03:17 PM
Nah..much better to have him hurt it up in the majors :evil:

Nah... we should bring him to the majors so it can help out the fantasy leaguers.

toledodan
07-23-2006, 04:14 PM
After seeing Mays in person for the 3rd time this year I am for anything that keeps from seeing him agWhen you ain't good enough to pitch for the Royals, you ain't good enough to pitch for ...




you poor soul if you had to see mays pitch 3 times this season.:help:

Spring~Fields
07-23-2006, 04:31 PM
I haven't seen Narron or any of his "coaching staff" improve one pitcher, fielder or batter since they have been here, especially if they are young,
I would not let any of them anywhere near Homer Bailey.

RedLegSuperStar
07-23-2006, 05:45 PM
I haven't seen Narron or any of his "coaching staff" improve one pitcher, fielder or batter since they have been here, especially if they are young,
I would not let any of them anywhere near Homer Bailey.

Ruhle isn't with the club either mind you. He seemed to help the pitching staff when he was brought in to replace Gullet.

redsfanmia
07-23-2006, 07:41 PM
Tracy Jones says that Home boy is not ready so lets leave him down for now. The Tracer will inform us of when he is ready. He should know he played the game.

MWM
07-23-2006, 07:42 PM
I haven't seen Narron or any of his "coaching staff" improve one pitcher, fielder or batter since they have been here, especially if they are young,
I would not let any of them anywhere near Homer Bailey.

Elizardo? Coffey? Arroyo is having the best year of his career.

VR
07-23-2006, 08:00 PM
Elizardo? Coffey? Arroyo is having the best year of his career.

Aaron Harang says howdy.

Candy Cummings
07-23-2006, 08:18 PM
From what I heard on the broadcast today, Bailey is most likely to pitch in AA all season. Let's not ruin him. We got a great one on the line, let's let him work his way up gradually. He's real young, right?

GAC
07-23-2006, 09:05 PM
I haven't seen Narron or any of his "coaching staff" improve one pitcher, fielder or batter since they have been here, especially if they are young,
I would not let any of them anywhere near Homer Bailey.

You don't think Chambliss deserves any credit for the vast increase in this team's OB%/patience? ;)

RedLegSuperStar
07-23-2006, 10:50 PM
From what I heard on the broadcast today, Bailey is most likely to pitch in AA all season. Let's not ruin him. We got a great one on the line, let's let him work his way up gradually. He's real young, right?

20.. I agree he needs to stay where he is and work on his pitches and command. He'll get his shot next season, most likly another shot this spring.

Spring~Fields
07-24-2006, 01:34 AM
You don't think Chambliss deserves any credit for the vast increase in this team's OB%/patience? ;)

I would give serious credit to Krivsky for his pickups that boosted this team to a few games over .500 so far, Arroyo, Phillips, Ross, Hatti, and Guardado. I don't think that Chambliss or his colleagues had much to do with those improvements. Griffey is the greatest hitter by his career record on the Reds team, I am sure that he knows something about hitting and that his historical stat record would fully support that, does he give Chambliss credit/endorsement or does he call dad when he needs some hitting guidance? ;) I will give Narron credit for Hancock "the obeast one", and those old goats that he put in a good word for to Krivsky when making up his bullpen during spring training that has since been put out to pasteur. Most of all I would thank the gift runs and victories handed to the Reds by other teams mistakes and or misfortune to date.

The_jbh
07-24-2006, 01:25 PM
NO NO NO NO NO NO

Stop it, Homer Bailey does not need to come up. He has recently been mixing his pitches up better but he needs to be more consistent with getting his curve over the plate and work on the change up. Hitters like Carlos Beltran would eat Bailey's fastball alive if he can't have confidence in his other pitches. He JUST TURNED 20... and he hasn't made that many starts above AA. Yes we need a new #5 starter but we have plenty of option outside of rushing our phenom.

Steve Kelly Phil Dumatrait and Justin Germano are all guys who have had success at the AAA level. I'm aware none have the ceiling that Bailey does but also none of them would have the catastrophic effect on the farm system if they bust. Bailey is a unique talent. He is allready fast approaching the most innings he has ever thrown in a season. Bringing him up would seriously jepordize his career. There is ample proof that you can't put extreme wear and tear on a 19 to 20 year old arm. Bailey should finish the year in AA with at the most a 1 or 2 start cup of coffee start in September, then have an outside shot at making the 5 spot next year or spending half a year in Louisville.

princeton
07-24-2006, 01:28 PM
Yes we need a new #5 starter but we have plenty of option outside of rushing our phenom.

Steve Kelly Phil Dumatrait and Justin Germano are all guys who have had success at the AAA level.

I followed your logic until the beginning of that second sentence... then you lost me

REDREAD
07-24-2006, 01:57 PM
I really don't think it's worth the risk of ruining Homer to bring him up. We are staying in contention only because the front runners have stumbled. I generally agree with pulling out all the stops when you're contending, but in a year where the team is barely hanging on to a .500 record? No.

It would be different if the team was on a 95 win pace, and we needed another arm to shore up the pen or #5 starter spot.

PuffyPig
07-24-2006, 01:59 PM
Aaron Harang says howdy.
Brandon Phillips says Hi too. Dave Ross?

smith288
07-24-2006, 02:13 PM
And seeing the type of luck we've had with other 1st round picks, such as Howington, Gruler, and Basham, I have no problem with the course Krivsky is taking right now.

DIdnt those guys get hurt in our minors not as a result of being rushed through the system?

RBA
07-24-2006, 02:16 PM
Funny or unfunny how we can send 18 year olds to war, but were afraid to send a 20 year old to the Major Leagues. Shell shocked? Not even close to that.
Note: this isn't a political statement for or against sending young men off to fight. But the term "shell shock" bothers me. He's in no danger as our men and women in uniform overseas. I'm not signalling any one out (Please don't take it that way) as that seems the general theme of everyone against bringing Homer Bailey up.

I think there our very few pitchers that actually make it. And the sooner you bring them up and find out what they actually have the better. (Unless you know he's a dud already and bringing him up reduces his trade value)
Yes, a lot of young pitchers brought up early have failed. But a lot of "seasoned" pitchers bought up have also failed. Bring the kid up for a cup of coffee and see what he can do in one game. If one game is going to ruin him, than in my opinion he doesn't have the mental makeup that it takes to succeed at the Major League level to begin with.

The_jbh
07-24-2006, 06:24 PM
I followed your logic until the beginning of that second sentence... then you lost me

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/team.php?id=416&bsort=avg_sort&psort=w&bord=desc&pord=desc

I didnt realize how bad Kelly has pitched in AAA so i'll retract that

Player W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB K HBP AVG TPA BK WP STR%
Justin Germano 8 6 3.69 19 18 0 117.0 124 53 48 11 22 67 9 .279 482 2 1 1.000
Phil Dumatrait 4 4 3.98 9 9 0 52.0 60 25 23 5 16 33 1 .297 224 0 1 ---


honestly they couldn't be worse than Joe Mays. Germano hasnt been given a shot to start at all, i think Dumatrait is our best bet, his stats are semi decieving, he pitched awful his first 3 starts or so and has been pretty good since then, can't hurt to give him 1 start b4 Brandon Claussen comes back to reak havoc (hopefully not on us)

The_jbh
07-24-2006, 06:24 PM
dagonit what is the command to post stats straight? i forget and can't find it ne where?

Cyclone792
07-24-2006, 07:33 PM
dagonit what is the command to post stats straight? i forget and can't find it ne where?

Type the stats in Notepad exactly how you want them to appear in the post. What you see in Notepad is what you want to see in the post.

Copy/paste from Notepad into the post.

Open an HTML tag with the word code before the stats, then close the HTML tag with the word code after the stats.

So for the stats you posted above, you would get:


Player W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB K HBP AVG TPA BK WP STR%

Justin Germano 8 6 3.69 19 18 0 117.0 124 53 48 11 22 67 9 .279 482 2 1 1.000
Phil Dumatrait 4 4 3.98 9 9 0 52.0 60 25 23 5 16 33 1 .297 224 0 1 -----

GAC
07-24-2006, 07:57 PM
DIdnt those guys get hurt in our minors not as a result of being rushed through the system?

True. All I am saying is that "bad luck" is the very reason why they aren't risking anything with Bailey and taking a cautionary stance.

The year before last the kid was pitching in high school. ;)

GAC
07-24-2006, 08:07 PM
Funny or unfunny how we can send 18 year olds to war, but were afraid to send a 20 year old to the Major Leagues.

While I understand what you're trying to convey - it's not a very good analogy/comparison IMO.

I'm not as concerned about his emotional maturity as much as I am with simply his developing pitching skills.

Take EE for instance. It's obvious that while he is ready for the big leagues he still has a maturity issue as far as learning the position, which has caused some struggles from the defensive perspective.

Some, including myself, say "play him", bear it, and allow him to grow through the mistakes.

But should we take the same stance with a 20 yr old pitcher, who isn't at the level of development that EE is, and inwhich the pressure would be far greater IMO?

Brining him up later in the season when we expand the rosters, for a "look-see", would be fine with me.

But right now he is trying to develop his pitch repertoire. And I don't think the big leagues is the right place for him to be doing it RIGHT NOW.