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View Full Version : seeing more pitches during these 9 games



princeton
07-23-2006, 07:39 AM
Reds' offense, what's left of it, has lately done a pretty good job of working deep into the opposing team's bullpen

last nine games, we've drawn 145 pitches/game from the bad guys. In the previous nine games (when Kearns/Lopez were still around), that number was 138 pitches/game when adjusted for innings played.

Red Sox are probably a decent benchmark, although an AL team will probably work a few more pitches out of the opposition than will a team lacking a DH. Over the same time period, Red Sox have drawn an average of 154 pitches per game, adjusted for innings. So lately the Reds match up well to that rate, and this may be a number worth watching.

Ltlabner
07-23-2006, 07:44 AM
Interesting numbers. Thanks Princeton.

Hacking away at the first pitch or generally being "impatient" at the plate has been a big pet peave of mine. My Father is sick of me griping about it. It does seem to be a good indicator of whether people are "dialed in" or not. At last antecdotally, it seem like when they start pressing the offsense dries up and they get uber-streaky. Once they all calm down and work the counts everything falls into place.

princeton
07-24-2006, 07:13 AM
only 125 pitches from the Brewers on Sunday: the princeton jinx strikes again ;)

M2
07-24-2006, 09:32 AM
Working pitchers has been the team's strength for a while now (since the advent of Chris Chambliss). In general you'd expect an average team to see 135 pitches a game (15 per inning) so once you get north of 150 pitches you've effectively caused the opposition to do an extra inning's worth of work.

Dunn (4.13 pitches per plate appearance) and Ryan Freel (4.12) are the team leaders in working pitchers. Austin Kearns (4.11) and Felipe Lopez (4.07) were third and fourth before the trade. Edwin Encarnacion (4.00) and Scott Hatteberg (3.93) are also very good in working pitchers. Presuming Freel and Denorfia (4.21 so far) get the bulk of the RF playing time, that shouldn't affect the offense. Yet the Castro/Clayton combination will probably see roughly half a pitch less per PA than Lopez did. Add in the extra outs (which means less total PAs for the team) and that will be a drag on the team total.

GAC
07-24-2006, 09:44 AM
When comparing 2Bman...If Chambliss can just get Phillips (3.61 P/PA) up around the Marcus Giles range (4.07). ;)

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2006, 11:00 AM
Another reason why strikeouts aren't all that bad.

SteelSD
07-24-2006, 11:03 AM
When comparing 2Bman...If Chambliss can just get Phillips (3.61 P/PA) up around the Marcus Giles range (4.07). ;)

That's doable should every MLB pitcher suddenly forget how to throw a slider. ;)

princeton
07-24-2006, 11:05 AM
Another reason why strikeouts aren't all that bad.

Strikeouts are better than hits. :thumbup:

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2006, 11:26 AM
Strikeouts are better than hits. :thumbup:

And journeyman relievers are better than everyday shortstops and right fielders! :thumbup:

princeton
07-24-2006, 11:31 AM
And journeyman relievers are better than everyday shortstops and right fielders! :thumbup:

exactly, and for the very same reason-- you don't want pitchers to strike out batters. Better that they give up hits.

just use the new math, and you'll learn that we are rich in pitching now :beerme:

westofyou
07-24-2006, 11:31 AM
And journeyman relievers are better than everyday shortstops and right fielders! :thumbup:
I like how the Relievers are "Journeymen" and Lopez is an "everyday SS"

When and if Reds still have the relievers in 2 years and Lopez ain't playing short will the above still apply?

BTW are we missing Kearns yet?

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2006, 12:11 PM
I like how the Relievers are "Journeymen" and Lopez is an "everyday SS"

When and if Reds still have the relievers in 2 years and Lopez ain't playing short will the above still apply?

BTW are we missing Kearns yet?

Is Majewski helping us yet?

If someone gets smart and moves Lopez to 2B, how does his .780 OPS look then?

Granted, Bray has a decent pedigree and should be a very good reliever in the next few years. That doesn't mean he and Majourneymanski were worth Kearns and Lopez, no matter how many ways people try to spin it.

Sorry for hijacking the thread, BTW. It's supposed to be about pitch counts. I'm actually pretty surprised that the Reds have worked the count so well after losing Lopez and Kearns, but after watching Juan Castro hack at an eye-high 1-1 fastball yesterday, I don't think it will last.

westofyou
07-24-2006, 12:31 PM
Granted, Bray has a decent pedigree and should be a very good reliever in the next few years.He's pitched pretty well, more IP then GM .


If someone gets smart and moves Lopez to 2B, how does his .780 OPS look then?

Well he's a SS in DC, he's flanked by two guys who aren't moving on soon, so someone will have to do that elsewhere I suppose.

princeton
07-24-2006, 12:41 PM
If someone gets smart and moves Lopez to 2B...


I led the posting on this years ago, but IMO it's too late to help much in the next year-plus, which is the Reds' need, because his footwork is bad enough at the position that he was holding and would be worse at second. And if he's able to adjust after that year plus, then he's too pricey to justify

Lopez's best position for Reds was probably utility IF/OF, which a team with a 12 man staff always needs. Even with Freel around, there remains a need there. But he'd be a pricey UT player even three months from now.

TeamBoone
07-24-2006, 01:57 PM
Strikeouts are better than hits. :thumbup:

Strikeouts are better than DPs.

TeamBoone
07-24-2006, 01:59 PM
Dunn (4.13 pitches per plate appearance) and Ryan Freel (4.12) are the team leaders in working pitchers. Austin Kearns (4.11) and Felipe Lopez (4.07) were third and fourth before the trade. Edwin Encarnacion (4.00) and Scott Hatteberg (3.93) are also very good in working pitchers. Presuming Freel and Denorfia (4.21 so far) get the bulk of the RF playing time, that shouldn't affect the offense. Yet the Castro/Clayton combination will probably see roughly half a pitch less per PA than Lopez did. Add in the extra outs (which means less total PAs for the team) and that will be a drag on the team total.

I have noticed the KGJr swings at the first pitch pretty consistently, at least lately he does. Has he always done this and I'm just now noticing it... or is this something new in his plate approach?

M2
07-24-2006, 02:14 PM
I have noticed the KGJr swings at the first pitch pretty consistently, at least lately he does. Has he always done this and I'm just now noticing it... or is this something new in his plate approach?

I'm not enterprising enough to check on how many first pitch swings Jr.'s taking, but he has seen his pitches per PA drop from 3.95 in 2003 to 3.90 in 2004 then 3.79 last season and now to 3.63. He had a 3.60 in 2002, which was the worst season of his career. Earlier in his career he saw fewer pitches, but that's fairly common.

GAC
07-24-2006, 08:13 PM
I'm not enterprising enough to check on how many first pitch swings Jr.'s taking, but he has seen his pitches per PA drop from 3.95 in 2003 to 3.90 in 2004 then 3.79 last season and now to 3.63.

That's Phillip's area. Wow!

Clayton is 3.48

C'mon Jr!