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View Full Version : Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25



Jpup
07-25-2006, 06:41 AM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060725/SPT04/607250379/1071


Sub Bailey for Mays?
... until Claussen returns
COMMENTARY BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

The Reds' plan, at the moment, is to start Joe Mays against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday.

Here's what I'd do: I'd start Homer Bailey instead, and make it a one shot deal.

Tell Bailey he's up with the Reds until Brandon Claussen is ready to come off the disabled list.

That lessens the pressure. And if he pitches so well that you have to alter the decision, all the better.

The move would instill more confidence in the Reds' clubhouse than running Mays out there again.

Bailey's numbers with Double-A Chattanooga - 4-0 record, 0.88 ERA, 17 hits, 31 strikeouts, six walks in 302/3 innings - are staggering.

But odds are you'll see Justin Germano, Michael Gosling or Jason Standridge taking the mound in the immediate future before you see Bailey.

Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky has never deviated from the company line on the 20-year-old phenom: The team is pleased with his progress. The Reds are glad he's had success at two levels. They don't want to bring him up and have to send him back down.

Double-A is a long way from the big leagues. Bailey relies too heavily on his fastball. He needs to work on controlling runners.

But Cincinnati, which opens a three-game series tonight in Houston, then goes to Milwaukee for three games, is in a pennant race.

Every game counts. One bad stretch could kill the Reds' wild-card chances. One good stretch could put them in command.

Mays has a 9.45 ERA in his four starts as a Red. He has given up 19 runs on 25 hits in 14 innings over his last three outings.

He warned everyone before his last start that he probably wouldn't be sharp because he hadn't pitched in 16 days.

How do you think that played around the bat rack?

Still, Krivsky probably will continue his patience with Bailey.

And even if he's softening toward the urge to bring Bailey up, Krivsky isn't tipping his hand.

He's extremely successful at keeping his moves under wraps until he makes them. And the last thing he's going to say is that the club is considering promoting Bailey. That would put pressure on the kid before he ever leaves the state of Tennessee.

One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

You use it when it counts the most.

Saturday may not be the time to play that big chip. But the Reds shouldn't wait too long.

Krivsky need look no further than his old club, Minnesota. The Twins showed a lot of patience with 22-year-old Francisco Liriano. They didn't start him until May 19. He's gone 12-2 since.

That is not to say that Bailey has Liriano's stuff, or that Bailey is even big-league ready.

But you've got to think he's the Reds' best choice for a temporary run in the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

YAN RELEASED: The Reds released right-hander Esteban Yan Monday. The club had designated him for assignment July 14, giving them 10 days to trade, release or outright him to the minors.

The Reds got him May 30 from the Los Angeles Angels for minor leaguer Kyle Edens.

Yan was 0-0 and had a 6.85 ERA in 13 games for the Angels and a 3.60 ERA and one save in 14 relief appearance for the Reds.

PuffyPig
07-25-2006, 08:22 AM
Mays stinks to be sure, but that's no reason to bring up Bailey. I'd go with Gosling against the Brewers, who's RH hitting lineup looks weaker than their LH hitting lineup.Or Germano. Or anyone else.

Krusty
07-25-2006, 09:03 AM
Reds could bring up Germano for one start. With the trading deadline next Monday at 4 pm and with the possiblity of Claussen being ready by then, the Reds only have to worry about Mays next start before giving him the axe.

princeton
07-25-2006, 09:05 AM
One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

You use it when it counts the most.

if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?

we need smarter insiders

NJReds
07-25-2006, 09:06 AM
I think I'd go with Germano. There is absolutely no logical reason to put Joe Mays on a major league mound again.

RBA
07-25-2006, 09:08 AM
One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

You use it when it counts the most.

if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?

we need smarter insiders


I was thinking the same thing.

Johnny Footstool
07-25-2006, 09:14 AM
Mays has a 9.45 ERA in his four starts as a Red. He has given up 19 runs on 25 hits in 14 innings over his last three outings.

He warned everyone before his last start that he probably wouldn't be sharp because he hadn't pitched in 16 days.

They all replied, "you probably won't be sharp because you're Joe Mays."

max venable
07-25-2006, 09:21 AM
Best point of the whole article:


Every game counts. One bad stretch could kill the Reds' wild-card chances. One good stretch could put them in command.

That's huge! Not saying we should start Homer but geez, how long are you going to run Joe Freakin' Mays out there?

REDREAD
07-25-2006, 09:54 AM
Bring up Gernamo or anyone else in AAA.

But I don't think it's time to bring up Homer to start yet. From what I've read, his secondary pitches aren't ready. Maybe you could bring Homer up and put him in the pen, where he could give you an inning or two of just throwing fastballs, but he's going to get killed when the lineup sees him a second time.

Resist the urge to Reith this guy. You don't want to have him up in the majors for one day and then send him back with memories of him getting his butt kicked.

princeton
07-25-2006, 09:59 AM
Resist the urge to Reith this guy.


do you mean, teach him a cut fastball one week, then call him up the next week and ask him to throw mostly cut fastballs?

I agree-- resist that.

Chip R
07-25-2006, 10:08 AM
if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?


Sure.

So when does Homer have to be protected on the 40 man roster?

oneupper
07-25-2006, 10:57 AM
Mays stinks to be sure, but that's no reason to bring up Bailey. I'd go with Gosling against the Brewers, who's RH hitting lineup looks weaker than their LH hitting lineup.Or Germano. Or anyone else.

Brewers have killed lefties this year, IIRC. Germano might be a better option.

BrooklynRedz
07-25-2006, 11:26 AM
One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

You use it when it counts the most.

if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?

we need smarter insiders

Good question. However, I read that different in that I think Fay misinterpreted the insider's metaphor. I don't think Krivsky has any intention or secret plan to hold Bailey as a trick play. Rather, I do believe that Krivsky understands the risk to Bailey's value should they rush him in a stupid start against the Brewers.

princeton
07-25-2006, 11:53 AM
Good question. However, I read that different in that I think Fay misinterpreted the insider's metaphor. I don't think Krivsky has any intention or secret plan to hold Bailey as a trick play. Rather, I do believe that Krivsky understands the risk to Bailey's value should they rush him in a stupid start against the Brewers.

your interpretation is that Bailey's trade value decreases over present value if he gets shelled in a major league debut?

OTOH, if you call him up, spot him into roles in which he should succeed-- and not every batter can muscle a 98 mph fastball, there are Juan Castros in this league-- then his value increases. Probably to the point that nobody can afford him, but that's not a bad problem.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 11:55 AM
Brewers have killed lefties this year, IIRC. Germano might be a better option.any choice not named Mays is a better option.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 11:57 AM
BTW, I believe WK when he says that Bailey is not an option and is not being considered.

Hopefully, there is a plan B, C, D beyond Mays being considered but I doubt that Bailey is on the list.

princeton
07-25-2006, 12:15 PM
BTW, I believe WK when he says that Bailey is not an option and is not being considered.

Hopefully, there is a plan B, C, D beyond Mays being considered but I doubt that Bailey is on the list.

Reports improve, options close, things change

TeamBoone
07-25-2006, 12:29 PM
I sent Fay an email about this... how and why I disagree with his viewpoint.

I also sent one to the Reds lauding Krivsky's decision and his ability to resist all the nudging he's getting from the press and some fans.

Chip R
07-25-2006, 12:31 PM
So when does Homer have to be protected on the 40 man roster?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

flyer85
07-25-2006, 12:35 PM
I also sent one to the Reds lauding Krivsky's decision and his ability to resist all the nudging he's getting from the press and some fans.The issue with Homer is workload. Pushing him beyond 150 innings this year would be taking a risk. He is building arm strength to be able to handle the load of a major league starter. He pitched a little over 100IP last year, will pitch ~150IP this year and will likely pitch around 180IP next year. Pushing beyond those numbers may be inviting arm problems. Seeing as how long the Reds have waited for a power arm with true #1 type stuff it would be a shame to see an injury derail him now.

princeton
07-25-2006, 12:40 PM
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

sorry, I usually work only for M2, not for Chips

after the '07 season.

Chip R
07-25-2006, 12:41 PM
sorry, I usually work only for M2, not for Chips

after the '07 season.

You da man. Gracias. Check's in the mail. ;)

Red Leader
07-25-2006, 12:46 PM
I sent Fay an email about this... how and why I disagree with his viewpoint.


His secretary will tell you why you're wrong. ;)

MWM
07-25-2006, 01:45 PM
princeton, just curious what made you change from your usual "coddle thy pitchers" mantra in Homer's case? Or do you think putting him in the bully and using him sparingly is still coddling him?

edabbs44
07-25-2006, 01:51 PM
The issue with Homer is workload. Pushing him beyond 150 innings this year would be taking a risk. He is building arm strength to be able to handle the load of a major league starter. He pitched a little over 100IP last year, will pitch ~150IP this year and will likely pitch around 180IP next year. Pushing beyond those numbers may be inviting arm problems. Seeing as how long the Reds have waited for a power arm with true #1 type stuff it would be a shame to see an injury derail him now.
If they have to bring him up, bring him up for the bullpen. Mays gets knocked out in the 4th, he goes 5-7.

princeton
07-25-2006, 01:56 PM
do you think putting him in the bully and using him sparingly is still coddling him?

:thumbup:

I'm a big fan of spot-use in the bullpen as a potential means to advance pitchers a bit more quickly.I suspect that it can be done carefully, with high chance of success, such that the pitcher advances without overwheming him, while the team also gets meaningful innings. There's enough anecdotal evidence that it helps that it's worth employing systematically. In fact, I'd use it in both majors and minors, If it's good for major leaguers, then it might also help in making big jumps from A to AA, or AA to AAA.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 01:57 PM
If they have to bring him up, bring him up for the bullpen. Mays gets knocked out in the 4th, he goes 5-7.The real issue is that when you get cut by the team with the worst pitching in the game you shouldn't end up a starter with the Reds a few weeks later. The Reds know(and have known) for some time exactly what they will get from Mays, which is nothing. Yet they continue to run him out there. Really stupidity of the highest order.

What signal does conitnuing pitching a guy like Mays really tell your team and your fans? It says to me either a) we're not really serious about this or b) we don't know what we are doing

edabbs44
07-25-2006, 02:00 PM
The real issue is that when you get cut by the team with the worst pitching in the game you shouldn't end up a starter with the Reds a few weeks later. The Reds know(and have known) for some time exactly what they will get from Mays, which is nothing. Yet they continue to run him out there. Really stupidity of the highest order.

What signal does conitnuing pitching a guy like Mays really tell your team and your fans? It says to me either a) we're not really serious about this or b) we don't know what we are doing
Oh yeah, w/o a doubt. Mays, Yan and the rest of the DFA crew should all be gone. But since Mays/Krivsky is getting to be comparable to RA/Narron, it looks like Mays might be around these parts for a while. Maybe Homer can come up and work a tandem thing with Milton, since Milty can't succeed beyond the 5th.

Chip R
07-25-2006, 02:00 PM
:thumbup:

I'm a big fan of spot-use in the bullpen as a potential means to advance pitchers a bit more quickly.I suspect that it can be done carefully, with high chance of success, such that the pitcher advances without overwheming him, while the team also gets meaningful innings. There's enough anecdotal evidence that it helps that it's worth employing systematically. In fact, I'd use it in both majors and minors, If it's good for major leaguers, then it might also help in making big jumps from A to AA, or AA to AAA.

I hear you but, unfortunately, that will never, ever, ever happen with Homer or probably any other high profile starting pitching prospect in this organization. You don't put The Savior in the bullpen.

princeton
07-25-2006, 02:07 PM
I hear you but, unfortunately, that will never, ever, ever happen with Homer or probably any other high profile starting pitching prospect in this organization. You don't put The Savior in the bullpen.

this GM hails from the land of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano, both of whom cut his teeth in the bullpen

RFS62
07-25-2006, 02:25 PM
:thumbup:

I'm a big fan of spot-use in the bullpen as a potential means to advance pitchers a bit more quickly.I suspect that it can be done carefully, with high chance of success, such that the pitcher advances without overwheming him, while the team also gets meaningful innings. There's enough anecdotal evidence that it helps that it's worth employing systematically. In fact, I'd use it in both majors and minors, If it's good for major leaguers, then it might also help in making big jumps from A to AA, or AA to AAA.



The '60's era Orioles did pretty well with that system. It used to be pretty standard.

Chip R
07-25-2006, 02:26 PM
this GM hails from the land of Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano, both of whom cut his teeth in the bullpen

True enough but the Twins have not been as starved for home grown starting pitching prospects as the Reds have. If you think Wayne is feeling pressure to call up Homer now, that will be nothing compared to what he'll feel once Homer is on that 25 man roster. It'll be "Why isn't Homer starting?" 24/7. I don't think Liriano and Santana are good comparisons since they arrived with little fanfare and IIRC neither were home grown. A more valid comparison to Homer would be Kerry Wood but it's not like the Cubs have been starved for home grown starters before his arrival.

Heath
07-25-2006, 02:26 PM
The issue with Homer is workload. Pushing him beyond 150 innings this year would be taking a risk. He is building arm strength to be able to handle the load of a major league starter. He pitched a little over 100IP last year, will pitch ~150IP this year and will likely pitch around 180IP next year. Pushing beyond those numbers may be inviting arm problems. Seeing as how long the Reds have waited for a power arm with true #1 type stuff it would be a shame to see an injury derail him now.

Hey, welcome back Ricardo. Or Flyer. Or whoever you are :D

princeton
07-25-2006, 02:30 PM
True enough but the Twins have not been as starved for home grown starting pitching prospects as the Reds have. If you think Wayne is feeling pressure to call up Homer now, that will be nothing compared to what he'll feel once Homer is on that 25 man roster. It'll be "Why isn't Homer starting?" 24/7. I don't think Liriano and Santana are good comparisons since they arrived with little fanfare and IIRC neither were home grown. A more valid comparison to Homer would be Kerry Wood but it's not like the Cubs have been starved for home grown starters before his arrival.

this GM looks tough enough to make the right choices. He can always cite Liriano and Santana, he can cite the effect of innings on young arms, and folks'll be happy. There's no Tommy Lasorda scheming behind his back

Matt700wlw
07-25-2006, 02:39 PM
[B]One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.



It counts now...the season isn't "young" anymore.

This team is in the hunt.....can Bailey get them over the hump? That's the question...and yes, when he comes up, he comes as a starter.

Doc. Scott
07-25-2006, 02:51 PM
Mays stinks to be sure, but that's no reason to bring up Bailey. I'd go with Gosling against the Brewers, who's RH hitting lineup looks weaker than their LH hitting lineup.Or Germano. Or anyone else.

Gosling's junk, too. He's no starter- he Miltons most of his starts after doing well for two or three innings.

I'd say Germano's pretty much it for starter options (with any sort of upside) at AAA right now. Most of the rest might be able to fill a bullpen slot, but that's it.

Chip R
07-25-2006, 02:53 PM
this GM looks tough enough to make the right choices. He can always cite Liriano and Santana, he can cite the effect of innings on young arms, and folks'll be happy. There's no Tommy Lasorda scheming behind his back

Just Castellini pressuring him.

KronoRed
07-25-2006, 03:59 PM
Just Castellini pressuring him.
Did Casto tell Fay to write the article?

Hmmmm :evil:

RedlegJake
07-25-2006, 07:05 PM
Gosling's junk, too. He's no starter- he Miltons most of his starts after doing well for two or three innings.

I'd say Germano's pretty much it for starter options (with any sort of upside) at AAA right now. Most of the rest might be able to fill a bullpen slot, but that's it.

Which is exactly why Mays is still pitching - Germano is the only real option at the moment. Dumatrait's K rate plummeted when he hit AAA and he has been fairly mediocre with Louisville. Pelland has been okay but hardly dominant in AA, Kelley is middle/long relief fodder at best. Of the lot Germano is probably the best option and he's been hittable at AAA. Krivsky isn't stupid for Mays as some imply - there is no better option. Look at Germano's stats - do you seriously think he'll be much better? I admit - it would be hard to be worse, though and I'm in favor of Germano getting a shot at least.

Redsland
07-28-2006, 11:22 AM
So when does Homer have to be protected on the 40 man roster?
You have to protect a player after four years of minor league service if he was signed before age 19; after three years of service if signed after that.