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View Full Version : Interesting: The result of "the trade"



WVRedsFan
07-26-2006, 12:33 AM
Just playing around tonight with some of the stats since the trade of Kearns and Lopez for the relief pitchers net...

Average runs per game before the trade 5.04
Average runs per game after the trade 4.45

Average runs allowed before the trade 5.20
Average runs allowed after the trade 4.18

It appears we lost .59 runs per game and are giving up 1.02 runs less. Mission accomplished.

The offense has suffered, though. I guess the tradeoff, with an 8-3 record, has been worth it.

Small sample size, of course.

cincyinco
07-26-2006, 04:53 AM
Interesting analysis, I have wondered how dramatic an affect the bullpen would have with the gain, vs. the offense vs. the loss. I understand some people's feelings that we may have only recieved 2 'marginal' middle relievers - but even that is a significant upgrade over what we've had.

I contended that at the beginning of the year when we traded away WMP for Arroyo, that even if Arroyo performed to league average expectations we'd have done well for ourselves. Its the same with the bullpen. The bullpen was SO COMPLETELY DISASTEROUS, that even a trade for 2 "marginal" middle relievers(who I contend, btw, are better than that), would be good for the Reds.

I hate to say it, becuase I've been watching some great offense in Cincinnat the last several years(again, admittedly though, not much else), and its hard to see it go... but I hate to admit, its really pitching and defense that win championships. It really is. A good pitcher will shut down a good offense most of the time - evidence - your great Reds offense, which has largely been hit or miss.

We traded some runs on the offensive side for saving some runs on the defensive side. So far, it seems we've defended more runs than we gave up on the offense. I'm still struggling to come to grips with the trade, its hard to lose two fan favorites, especially for something that seemingly should net you more in return. But lets face it, if this gets us in - I'll love this trade. Even if this gets us close, I will give Krivsky credit - he tried to win it for us.

let me say that again..

HE TRIED TO WIN IT FOR US

Thats completely more than Obrien EVER tried to do for us. I'm grateful for the fact we're competing and its almost August!!! Whens the last time we were in this position? Its been a LONG TIME. Enjoy it Reds fans. Its head and shoulders above any expectatiosn ANY OF US had before the year started.

C Peace Out.

redsmetz
07-26-2006, 05:21 AM
I hate to say it, becuase I've been watching some great offense in Cincinnat the last several years(again, admittedly though, not much else), and its hard to see it go... but I hate to admit, its really pitching and defense that win championships. It really is. A good pitcher will shut down a good offense most of the time - evidence - your great Reds offense, which has largely been hit or miss.

Can you imagine what our record would be if we'd have started with this bullpen? Even with Williams or Mays at the 5th spot? I'd bet there were probably about eight games on the loss ledger that the bullpen blew. If we'd have split those, we'd be at 57-43, a half game behind St. Louis. That's huge.

Unassisted
07-26-2006, 09:38 AM
Last night's game is a great symbolic example, even if the runs scored don't match the mean.

I now feel confident that the new bullpen will keep the Reds in a game that they lead. Previously, I would have been hoping that the offense would score enough additional runs to get the team out of the hole that the bullpen just dug for them.

edabbs44
07-26-2006, 09:38 AM
Just playing around tonight with some of the stats since the trade of Kearns and Lopez for the relief pitchers net...

Average runs per game before the trade 5.04
Average runs per game after the trade 4.45

Average runs allowed before the trade 5.20
Average runs allowed after the trade 4.18

It appears we lost .59 runs per game and are giving up 1.02 runs less. Mission accomplished.

The offense has suffered, though. I guess the tradeoff, with an 8-3 record, has been worth it.

Small sample size, of course.
Is that run differential in the BP or rotation? Just curious, I assume bullpen.

WVRedsFan
07-26-2006, 11:00 AM
Is that run differential in the BP or rotation? Just curious, I assume bullpen.

I really didn't break it down that far. Maybe I should when I get time. I found it hard to believe the loss of Kearns and Lopez cost us about 0.6 runs per game. Who would have thunk it? Of course, that's a small sample size and it may change by the end of the year.

bucksfan
07-26-2006, 11:52 AM
Interesting. Thanks for the breakdown.

I guess the trade did exactly what it was supposed to do in this very short-term picture. I'd even offer that long term I'd expect our offensive #'s to improve slightly, but not sure about the continuing trend of the pitching #'s.