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TeamBoone
07-26-2006, 02:20 PM
Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Hold your horses on Homer
Paul Daugherty / Cincinnati Enquirer

There is a very good chance David "Homer" Bailey, who's working in Chattanooga, Tenn., has no idea we are obsessing over him up here. Yet we are, and every time he wins another start, throws another 98 mph fastball past another Double-A hitter for yet another strikeout, the obsession grows.

The kid just turned 20. Can we let him learn how to pitch before we ask him to save the Reds' season?

No, we cannot. Each day, there is some new Homer urging from someone who thinks Cincinnati's year will implode without a fifth starting pitcher.

Name the No. 5 guy on the Padres, Rockies, Giants, Astros and Braves and win fabulous prizes.

Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky has been clear about his intentions for Bailey. They involve having him learn his curveball and changeup so he can come at major-league hitters with something more than just pure flame. The kid hasn't passed physics, yet we'd like him to build a rocket.

And by the way, just because a pitcher throws 98 mph once or twice a game doesn't mean he has a 98-mph fastball.

"He's right on schedule," Krivsky said Tuesday. "The right place for him is where he is right now."

And do you really want a guy named Homer pitching in a pennant race at Great American Small Park? What's his other nickname - Tater?

Yet we persist. He can start until Brandon Claussen rejoins the rotation. He'll come up in September anyway - why not now? How 'bout one start? Just one start wouldn't hurt. Can he make one start, Wayne? Pretty please?

It's starting to sound like a Dr. Seuss book. Green Eggs and Homer.

Would you, could you for Joe Mays? Would you, could you in four days?

Sam I Am Krivsky: I would not start him on the road. I would not start him if it snowed.

There's another good reason not to bring up Bailey:

It doesn't work.

Name one pitcher not named Doc Gooden in the last 30 years who made his major-league debut at age 19 or 20 and had a career worth savoring. I can name a few who tried and failed:

David Clyde debuted in 1973 at age 18 with the Texas Rangers. He was 4-8 that year, 18-33 for his career. Clyde was set aside by the age of 24.

Todd Van Poppel was 19 in '91, when he pitched for Oakland. Van Poppel toppled - he won 40 games in 11 years.

Steve Avery was 3-11 pitching for Atlanta at age 20. Oakland's Big Three of a few years back - Barry

Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson - made their first big-league starts at ages 22, 22 and 23 respectively.

In fact, 21 seems the earliest age any successful starting pitcher has made his debut. Josh Beckett started four games for the Florida Marlins at 21. Dontrelle Willis burst on the scene at the same age. A.J. Burnett was 22. And so on. Even Gooden had just one winning season after the age of 26.

Would you, could you, in the 'pen?

Sam I Am Krivsky: I do not like him in the 'pen. I do not want to say it again.

The only problem with how Bailey is being groomed is this: Recently, he has been throwing way too many fastballs. In the Futures Game July 9, Bailey threw heat exclusively, 20-plus pitches. His Chattanooga starts also have been fastball-fests.

If you'd like him to develop quickly, make Bailey throw curveballs and changeups. You already know about the other pitch.

Bring up former Reds great Mario Soto from the Dominican Republic. Make Bailey his pet. Reds insiders in March said Soto was such a good teacher, he could be a major-league pitching coach. Put him on Homer's changeup.

Other than that, leave the kid alone. The Reds' chances of making the postseason do not ride on the arm of a barely 20-year-old. His future rides on the team's decisions, though. Only fools rush in.

"My mind isn't on him being here" was how Krivsky put it Tuesday.

I do not like him as an '06 Red. Get that through your stubborn head.



http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060726/COL03/607260332/1071/SPT04

CaiGuy
07-26-2006, 02:26 PM
corny article, but very true. Homer wouldn't get us to postseason even if Wayne risked his future by calling him up. Don't rush him. He hasn't even faced a AAA batter, let alone be in a big league rotation.

princeton
07-26-2006, 02:30 PM
And by the way, just because a pitcher throws 98 mph once or twice a game doesn't mean he has a 98-mph fastball.

um... yes it does

dougdirt
07-26-2006, 02:32 PM
Maddux, Pedro, Fernando Valenzuela, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Zambrano isnt doing to bad, Scott Kazmir is pitching well....all brought up at age 20 or younger.

RBA
07-26-2006, 02:35 PM
Maddux, Pedro, Fernando Valenzuela, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Zambrano isnt doing to bad, Scott Kazmir is pitching well....all brought up at age 20 or younger.


UMMMM, :bang: Please don't let facts get in the way of a pretty good rant. :laugh:

flyer85
07-26-2006, 02:35 PM
Homer wouldn't get us to postseason even if Wayne risked his future by calling him up.... but Joe Mays will. :laugh:

dabvu2498
07-26-2006, 02:42 PM
Daugherty's RACP (Reporter Accuracy/Correctness Percentage) is somewhere around .198 this season... I'm still not sure why I keep reading his column. Stick to writing about Bearcat football and foosball tournaments, Paul!!!

RBA
07-26-2006, 02:42 PM
I do not like him as an '06 Red. Get that through your stubborn head.


Is this a quote from Krivsky? There were no (") around it. But it read like it was a quote from him.

It usually takes two to be stubborn, doesn't it?

RedsManRick
07-26-2006, 02:43 PM
That was a great read. Can't believe that came from a Reds beat reported not named Marc. I have little doubt that Bailey could come up right now and be an effective middle reliever. However, as Daugherty points out, you can't be a major league starter based solely on a 98 mph fastball. Furthermore, the risk of him become Wagnerized (one trick pony whose trick gets figured out) is significant. So maybe he was wrong in the "nobody has succeeded" claim. People have also jumped from a 10 story building and lived. It doesn't mean I'm going to go recommend the practice to all my friends.

Blue
07-26-2006, 02:50 PM
What a clown. There are so many things wrong with this article.

Name the No. 5 guy on the Padres, Rockies, Giants, Astros and Braves and win fabulous prizes.

Only one of those teams is in first place. Besides, just because he takes the place of Joe Mays doesn't mean he'd be our number 5 starter.

"Maddux, Pedro, Fernando Valenzuela, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Zambrano isnt doing to bad, Scott Kazmir is pitching well....all brought up at age 20 or younger." dougdirt

Add Felix Hernandez to the list. He's doing okay, and has been really good after a rough two months.

The only problem with how Bailey is being groomed is this: Recently, he has been throwing way too many fastballs. In the Futures Game July 9, Bailey threw heat exclusively, 20-plus pitches. His Chattanooga starts also have been fastball-fests.

He threw plenty of curves and changeups in his last start, and BA has said he was throwing them from his first starts in AA. Anyway, when you can spot a 98 mph fastball, you're going to throw it a lot, on any level.

WMR
07-26-2006, 02:52 PM
Wow amazing he gets to keep cashing checks for 'articles' like that.

dabvu2498
07-26-2006, 02:52 PM
"Maddux, Pedro, Fernando Valenzuela, Bret Saberhagen, Carlos Zambrano isnt doing to bad, Scott Kazmir is pitching well....all brought up at age 20 or younger." dougdirt

Add Felix Hernandez to the list. He's doing okay, and has been really good after a rough two months.

Add Steve Carlton too. I hear tell he wasn't so bad.

CaiGuy
07-26-2006, 02:57 PM
... but Joe Mays will. :laugh:
Joe will prevent the Reds getting to the postseason if he continues to get starts, and there isn't one in the baseball world that can argue that. However, Homer shouldn't be the one to replace him after he gets cut (hopefully in the next couple of days).

dougdirt
07-26-2006, 02:58 PM
Add Steve Carlton too. I hear tell he wasn't so bad.
He debuted well before the 30 year window Paul was talking about.

ThornWithin81
07-26-2006, 03:07 PM
What a clown. There are so many things wrong with this article.

Name the No. 5 guy on the Padres, Rockies, Giants, Astros and Braves and win fabulous prizes.

Only one of those teams is in first place. Besides, just because he takes the place of Joe Mays doesn't mean he'd be our number 5 starter.

The reason he mentioned those teams is that those are the teams we are fighting with for the Wild Card. Realistically, we are not going to win the Central unless the Cardinals fall apart. They are a better team, period. His point is that, even though we don't have a good fifth starter, no one else in the Wildcard race really does either. Basically, if we lose a few extra games due to a void in the rotation, so will the teams chasing us. It doesn't change the fact that we need to find a fix before the deadline, but its a workable argument.

RBA
07-26-2006, 03:08 PM
And do you really want a guy named Homer pitching in a pennant race at Great American Small Park? What's his other nickname - Tater?


So, what's he saying? Homer needs to change his name before he is called up. Is this really part of an argument not to bring him up? sheesh!

RedsManRick
07-26-2006, 03:11 PM
Note to board: newspaper editoral does not equal academic journal article

ThornWithin81
07-26-2006, 03:11 PM
So, what's he saying? Homer needs to change his name before he is called up. Is this really part of an argument not to bring him up? sheesh!

It's only a joke, but I know that Homer's name will piss me off watching Baseball Tonight in a few years. "Homer...gives up a homer". :bang:

Redmachine2003
07-26-2006, 03:11 PM
One question can Homer pitch, Right Now, better in the Majors than Mays and Claussen. If the anwser is yes then bring him up and let him get his cup of coffee for the last 8 starts that we would need a 5th starter.

CaiGuy
07-26-2006, 03:15 PM
So, what's he saying? Homer needs to change his name before he is called up. Is this really part of an argument not to bring him up? sheesh!
It's a joke. Not a funny joke, granted, but an attempted one. I didn't really find this article as amusing as Paul Daugherty tries to make it, but I agree with the main point. Rushing Bailey is foolish. Give the rotation slot to another pitcher not named Williams or Mays.

SeeinRed
07-26-2006, 03:17 PM
The only problem with how Bailey is being groomed is this: Recently, he has been throwing way too many fastballs. In the Futures Game July 9, Bailey threw heat exclusively, 20-plus pitches. His Chattanooga starts also have been fastball-fests.

He threw plenty of curves and changeups in his last start, and BA has said he was throwing them from his first starts in AA. Anyway, when you can spot a 98 mph fastball, you're going to throw it a lot, on any level.


I Actually think that there were some decent points in this article, although the facts aren't completely correct, including this one. I'll have to disagree with you on this one Blue. He is a young pitcher and by most accounts still doesn't have a good second pitch. In reality, to be a great pitcher with any sort of longevity in the majors, you need at least 3 decent pitches, even with a 98 mph fastball. Minor League batters are learning as well, and they don't adjust like Major League batters do. Major League hitters would tee off on a guy that they can sit on one pitch and wait for it. Especially when that pitch is a fastball that is thrown 75 percent of the time. The other pitches just have to be good enough to keep the hitter honest. A 98 mph fastball is a great weapon, but by no means enough for a pitcher to be a great starting pitcher.

I just like the fact that Paul said what I, along with many other Reds fans, were thinking, this kid has the chance to be a great pitcher for many years, but he is only 20 years old. Why rush him to the majors when he isn't ready? The best thing to do is to give the guy the best oppurtunity to succeed that you possibly can, and bringing him up now doesn't work in his favor. Letting him develope in the minors does. Leave him alone, he'll be ready when he is ready, and no sooner.

CaiGuy
07-26-2006, 03:18 PM
One question can Homer pitch, Right Now, better in the Majors than Mays and Claussen. If the anwser is yes then bring him up and let him get his cup of coffee for the last 8 starts that we would need a 5th starter.
It isn't a question of whether or not he is better than Mays. We all know the answer to that. It is the risk to his developement. Will a premature promotion hurt his future? It could.

ThornWithin81
07-26-2006, 03:22 PM
It isn't a question of whether or not he is better than Mays. We all know the answer to that. It is the risk to his developement. Will a premature promotion hurt his future? It could.

And it would be absolutely foolish to risk the future of a top pitching prospect for a shot at a Wildcard spot. Sure, I'd love to get to the playoffs, but I don't want to ruin Bailey just so we can get the Wildcard and get buried in the first round.

CrackerJack
07-26-2006, 03:23 PM
The reason he mentioned those teams is that those are the teams we are fighting with for the Wild Card. Realistically, we are not going to win the Central unless the Cardinals fall apart. They are a better team, period. His point is that, even though we don't have a good fifth starter, no one else in the Wildcard race really does either. Basically, if we lose a few extra games due to a void in the rotation, so will the teams chasing us. It doesn't change the fact that we need to find a fix before the deadline, but its a workable argument.

Cmon man everyone knows more than Paul! You're supposed to respond with the a-typical internet rhetoric of "what a hack!" "I'd love to be a journalist and write crap all day!" "go cover football!" etc.., etc..,

I had no problem with the point of his article - Homer is a HS pitcher who needs some polish and some more higher level experience first. He's not even a year removed from being an inconsistent A level starter.

I don't think anyone's saying to keep him in the minors until he's at least 35 (which Narron would probably like to do) but at least give him the rest of this season (and preferably next) to prove that once he's promoted to the Reds roster - he can stay there for good without having to work on off-speed pitches and control problems, and deal with demotions etc...,

Benny-Distefano
07-26-2006, 04:02 PM
It's a joke. Not a funny joke, granted, but an attempted one. I didn't really find this article as amusing as Paul Daugherty tries to make it,.


I agree. I like PD but after the 3rd dr.seuss rhyme I was ready to stop reading.

Falls City Beer
07-26-2006, 04:05 PM
I've never seen a GM start out with such guts (Pena for Arroyo) only to curl up into a fetal position as the season wears on.

Cedric
07-26-2006, 04:10 PM
I've never seen a GM start out with such guts (Pena for Arroyo) only to curl up into a fetal position as the season wears on.

Please tell me you are joking?

Everyone in the baseball world that he was the craziest man alive two weeks ago.

You either think he's gutsy or dumb, no two ways about Wayne Krivsky.

Blue
07-26-2006, 04:11 PM
I've never seen a GM start out with such guts (Pena for Arroyo) curl up into a fetal position as the season wears on.

You can't be serious. You don't think it took guts to trade Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner for Bray, Majewski, Clayton, Harris, and Thompson? How about trading for a 35 year old closer with an ERA over 5?

Falls City Beer
07-26-2006, 04:15 PM
Please tell me you are joking?

Everyone in the baseball world that he was the craziest man alive two weeks ago.

You either think he's gutsy or dumb, no two ways about Wayne Krivsky.

The Kearns/Lopez for Maj/stuff, stuff trade wasn't gutsy; it was desperate and ill-advised. Each of his moves since his boldest and best move (Pena/Arroyo) has been either a scrapyard Bowden acquisition (Ross/Phillips) or a flailing act of desperation (Kearns/Maj).

Courage means understanding what you are giving up and what you are getting in return--knowing the principles, principals, and the consequences. Shooting in the dark isn't guts.

gonelong
07-26-2006, 04:19 PM
Courage means understanding what you are giving up and what you are getting in return--knowing the principles, principals, and the consequences.

Krivsky knew in advance it wouldn't be popular and he obviously understood what he was giving up and getting in return.


Shooting in the dark isn't guts.

You got that right.

GL

Cedric
07-26-2006, 04:25 PM
The Kearns/Lopez for Maj/stuff, stuff trade wasn't gutsy; it was desperate and ill-advised. Each of his moves since his boldest and best move (Pena/Arroyo) has been either a scrapyard Bowden acquisition (Ross/Phillips) or a flailing act of desperation (Kearns/Maj).

Courage means understanding what you are giving up and what you are getting in return--knowing the principles, principals, and the consequences. Shooting in the dark isn't guts.

What's in the dark about it? He pinpoined our main weakness and he tried his best to solve it. IMO he also managed to help out our other problem which is SS defense.

You might disagree with the talent Wayne brought back, but how was he not targeting exactly what he wanted?

Falls City Beer
07-26-2006, 04:31 PM
What's in the dark about it? He pinpoined our main weakness and he tried his best to solve it. IMO he also managed to help out our other problem which is SS defense.

You might disagree with the talent Wayne brought back, but how was he not targeting exactly what he wanted?

What he wanted was bullpenners that retire opposing hitters.

But really, whether he knows it or not, Wayne needs starters.

I distrust people who, like Wayne, say things like: "Yeah, we probably overpaid...." He's either being cute, or he means it. Either way, it's a problem.

Cedric
07-26-2006, 04:34 PM
What he wanted was bullpenners that retire opposing hitters.

But really, whether he knows it or not, Wayne needs starters.

I distrust people who, like Wayne, say things like: "Yeah, we probably overpaid...." He's either being cute, or he means it. Either way, it's a problem.

He's being a smartass. You think he's gonna publicly say something about Felipe's defense and Scott Boras being his agent?

Or about Austin's attitude/work ethic?

You know better than that.

Puffy
07-26-2006, 04:36 PM
And do you really want a guy named Homer pitching in a pennant race at Great American Small Park? What's his other nickname - Tater?

Yup, thats the best reason right there Paul - wouldn't want a guy named Homer to ever pitch in a pennant race.

I believe thats why Grant Balfour is still listed as "injured" - because the Reds are in a pennant race and they don't want Balfour here because of his name.

RBA
07-26-2006, 04:36 PM
Krivsky knew in advance it wouldn't be popular and he obviously understood what he was giving up and getting in return.



You got that right.

GL

That's if we accept his word on that. Maybe he was trying to sound smarter than he is? After hearing and reading the media on the trade, he gave a pretty good excuse, "I knew this trade wouldn't be popular" Sounds like a politician to me.

Ltlabner
07-26-2006, 04:40 PM
He's being a smartass. You think he's gonna publicly say something about Felipe's defense and Scott Boras being his agent?

Or about Austin's attitude/work ethic?

You know better than that.

No kidding. I think he's a bit more classy that to get up and say publically that he thought Lopez sucked, or his agent was a pain in the butt or whatever.

Just more evidence that what you read and hear him say doesn't give us much more than 4% of what's really going on behind the sceens. So when people start parsing his words and making predictions based on such limited information I can only chuckle.

gonelong
07-26-2006, 04:44 PM
That's if we accept his word on that. Maybe he was trying to sound smarter than he is? After hearing and reading the media on the trade, he gave a pretty good excuse, "I knew this trade wouldn't be popular" Sounds like a politician to me.

He noted that it likely wouldn't be popular either at the press conference or immedietly following it. He said something to the effect that he expected alot of angry voicemails to be left for him.

Well before the media had anything on the air or in print.

EDIT:

"I gulped a lot," Krivsky said. "We gave up two quality guys and we got two quality guys in the bullpen. It is tough to get quality relievers. You have to give up quality to get quality."
...
"We knew we were going to have to pay a steep price," Krivsky said. "I'm sure this will be a controversial trade. I know there will be a lot of people leaving nasty messages on my voicemail. We did what we needed to do."

GL

RBA
07-26-2006, 05:19 PM
He noted that it likely wouldn't be popular either at the press conference or immedietly following it. He said something to the effect that he expected alot of angry voicemails to be left for him.

Well before the media had anything on the air or in print.

EDIT:


GL

I think he was already hearing small whipsers from the media before the press conference. Or was the trade not disclose prior to his press conference? I thought there was already "leaking" of the trade several hours before the press conference. Am I wrong?

Edit, I'm wrong, more like 55 minutes.

Ltlabner
07-26-2006, 05:38 PM
I think he was already hearing small whipsers from the media before the press conference. Or was the trade not disclose prior to his press conference? I thought there was already "leaking" of the trade several hours before the press conference. Am I wrong?

It was more like 30 minutes IIRC RBA, but yes, there was word of the trade on the street prior to the press conference.

RBA
07-26-2006, 05:46 PM
timeline:
July 13, 2006:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48529&highlight=LOPEZ+KEARNS+TRADED

3:35 News of the trade is disclosed by Matt at 3:35 PM. WLW quickly carries the story thereafter.

3:38 Announced on WLW (WLW? media? debateable? ;) )
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062289&postcount=8

3:48 Reds/MLB press release/news story
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062343&postcount=45
NOTE: No comments from Reds GM Krivsky.

3:56 hours, Trade is being heavily discussed on Sports Radio such as 1530 Homer.....
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062381&postcount=73

4:03 Reports of other baseball forums saying the Reds got ripped off are coming in from all over the internet...
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062415&postcount=99

4:03 Reds press conference scheduled for 4:30 is announced...
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1062416&postcount=100

4:30 press conference is on WLW

And we are led to believe that Krisvky didn't get a run down of what the sports radio shows and ESPN was saying before he started his conference? You don't just do those without any prep.

smith288
07-26-2006, 06:15 PM
I've never seen a GM start out with such guts (Pena for Arroyo) only to curl up into a fetal position as the season wears on.
Oh please...

Falls City Beer
07-26-2006, 06:18 PM
Oh please...

Maybe you'd prefer the analogy that ends: "....only to start pressing buttons like frustrated child with broken remote control."

smith288
07-26-2006, 06:20 PM
Maybe you'd prefer the analogy that ends: "....only to start pressing buttons like frustrated child with broken remote control."
He is addressing needs as he see's fit.

Was there something in his contract that mandated he go to FCB for evaluations of his trades and all intagibles involved prior to the trigger being pulled?

Blue
07-26-2006, 06:20 PM
RBA, what is the point that you're trying to make? Sorry, its just not very clear when its spread out through several posts.

Falls City Beer
07-26-2006, 06:24 PM
He is addressing needs as he see's fit.

Was there something in his contract that mandated he go to FCB for evaluations of his trades and all intagibles involved prior to the trigger being pulled?

No, but he could probably use a golem to protect him from making stupid mistakes.

RBA
07-26-2006, 07:16 PM
RBA, what is the point that you're trying to make? Sorry, its just not very clear when its spread out through several posts.

Sorry, but I'm making a possible point that Krivsky was alreay hearing the "rumblings" when he made his statement, "I knew this trade would not be popular" or something to that effect.