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View Full Version : Would You Trade Bailey For Willis?



Krusty
07-27-2006, 08:53 AM
Would you package Homer Bailey in a deal to acquire LHP Dontrelle Willis? The Reds would have control of Willis for the remainder of this season and all of 2007.

REDREAD
07-27-2006, 08:57 AM
Yes, I'd do that immediately.

Krusty
07-27-2006, 09:03 AM
The way I see it, the Reds would have to give the Fishes three quality prospects. Bailey, Votto and Dumtrait? Would those three be enough for the Fishes to decide to part with their ace?

Spitball
07-27-2006, 09:15 AM
I think it makes perfect sense for both teams. The Marlins need to move back the clock and get the younger, cheaper version of Willis, which would be Bailey. The Reds need to move up the clock to get what they hope will be the polished version of Bailey, which would be Willis.

Same could be said about Encarnacion and Cabrera.

REDREAD
07-27-2006, 09:17 AM
The way I see it, the Reds would have to give the Fishes three quality prospects. Bailey, Votto and Dumtrait? Would those three be enough for the Fishes to decide to part with their ace?

I don't know Krusty, there's not a lot of pitching available. With all the contenders needing a starter, I don't know if that would be the highest bid or not.

RedEye
07-27-2006, 09:18 AM
Dontrelle is no Doyle, even if Bailey is Smoltz. You make that deal.

Aceking
07-27-2006, 09:35 AM
Doyle Alexander was 37 when the Braves traded him for Smoltz. Not exactly a fair comparison.

Also, Doyle went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for the Tigers that year after the trade. Pretty impressive.

rcjones20
07-27-2006, 09:38 AM
Sorry, but you can't compare the two. Doyle Alexander was a 37 year old at the end of his career. Willis is a much much younger lefty who is just entering his prime. This is what makes the trade deadline so interesting. Who is willing to take the gamble. If I was K I would make that trade today. You hate to lose your top prospect but I think you take that gamble if it involves Willis. I think the Marlins would want more than just Bailey.

jmble
07-27-2006, 09:48 AM
I would do it in a heartbeat. Not only would they have control of Willis through next year, but I have confidence that current ownership would make the attempt to keeping him here past 07.

If Bailey turns out as good as Willis, I think everyone would be ecstatic. The chances he turns out so much better than Willis that this trade looks bad are slim.

If the Reds were able to resign Willis long term after 07, the most you would be losing is maybe five years at the end of Bailey's career.

lollipopcurve
07-27-2006, 09:52 AM
Not only would they have control of Willis through next year, but I have confidence that current ownership would make the attempt to keeping him here past 07.

Along with signing Harang?

jmble
07-27-2006, 09:58 AM
I'm not saying it would be easy Lolli. But if you look at the potential line up in 08, you see David Ross, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, and Chris Denorfia. Not sure who will be playing 2B/SS (depending on where Phillips is playing) That leaves Dunn and Griffey as the only two big money players on this roster at that time. Does that leave room for both Harrang and Willis? I really don't know. I don't know how much Mr. Castellini is going to be willing to spend, but what they have shown me is that they want to win.

smith288
07-27-2006, 10:00 AM
No... Willis is a mechanics nightmare in my opinion

boognish
07-27-2006, 10:05 AM
No, Willis's declining K/9 and the fact that he pitches in a pitcher's park with an historically better D frightens me...also, for just entering his prime he has thrown a lot of innings with a violent delivery.

Just too many bad portents, IMO, for a high price (3 high-ceiling guys, again IMO)

CySeymour
07-27-2006, 10:33 AM
No, Willis's declining K/9 and the fact that he pitches in a pitcher's park with an historically better D frightens me...also, for just entering his prime he has thrown a lot of innings with a violent delivery.

Just too many bad portents, IMO, for a high price (3 high-ceiling guys, again IMO)

I gotta agree with you here...there are too many red flags in the D-Train's performance this year.

registerthis
07-27-2006, 10:39 AM
Yep, his numbers are all pretty much up from last year, when he pitched 236 innings. But he's 24 years old, and even on flawed mechanics can last for awhile longer.

I think people forget how young he is, and how startlingly good he has been through the first few years of his career. A lot of guys don't even see the majors before the age of 24.

Steve4192
07-27-2006, 11:00 AM
Yep, his numbers are all pretty much up from last year,
Largely because of a hideous 10 day stretch in early May (5/1 - 5/11) where he posted a 12.88 ERA in 3 starts. Outside of those three starts, he has a 2.95 ERA that looks very similar to last year. Dontrelle has tallied 11 quality starts in his 13 appearances since ending his mini-slump.

By the end of the year, his overall numbers will be right in line with his career norms.

Steve4192
07-27-2006, 11:07 AM
BTW - I'd definitely trade a bird in the bush for a bird in the hand.

TINSTAAPP

shredda2000
07-27-2006, 11:21 AM
IMHO, I think the Reds are more than one starter away from WS contention. Therefore, IMO do not mortgage the future for a high profile pitcher with questionable mechanics.

registerthis
07-27-2006, 11:29 AM
IMHO, I think the Reds are more than one starter away from WS contention. Therefore, IMO do not mortgage the future for a high profile pitcher with questionable mechanics.

I think the assumption is that Willis would be more than a half-year rental. At least that's my assumption.

jmble
07-27-2006, 11:32 AM
Are they really more than one starter away from WS contention? Would you want to be the team facing Willis, Harrang, and Arroyo in a three man rotation in a playoff series? I would not.

I will admit that this is not the perfect team, but I would feel pretty confident that they could do some damage with those guys.

Krusty
07-27-2006, 11:50 AM
Nobody figured the White Sox and Astros would end up in the World Series last year. If you continue to build for tomorrow, then what are you playing for today?

One thing about Krivsky deals is usually when he gives up substantial, he makes sure he gets players that will be here for two or three years. Trading Bailey in a package for Willis would fall in line of Krivsky's previous deals where the acquisitions will be here beyond the 2006 season.

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 12:19 PM
Not a chance. Homer Bailey has potential in his right arm that would make Dontrelle Willis look like Dave Williams....ok maybe not that bad, but Homer Bailey is a special kind of pitcher, and Dontrelle Willis is just a good one. Dontrelle also is about to get real expensive, and until Cast opens up that checkbook and starts spending it, I am not going to believe he is going to drop 75-80 million on a payroll. Throw in Willis's extreme workload over his short career, his horrible mechanics and k rate that keeps dropping every year and I cant do it.

pedro
07-27-2006, 12:21 PM
Not a chance. Homer Bailey has potential in his right arm that would make Dontrelle Willis look like Dave Williams....ok maybe not that bad, but Homer Bailey is a special kind of pitcher, and Dontrelle Willis is just a good one. Dontrelle also is about to get real expensive, and until Cast opens up that checkbook and starts spending it, I am not going to believe he is going to drop 75-80 million on a payroll. Throw in Willis's extreme workload over his short career, his horrible mechanics and k rate that keeps dropping every year and I cant do it.

wow. talk about hyperbole. The chances of Homer Bailey ever putting up even one season as good as Dontrelle are pretty slim. Thta's not a knock on Homer as much as it is a reality that until you actually make it as a pitcher in majors.... you probably never will.

steig
07-27-2006, 12:22 PM
i would trade homer for willis if willis agreed to a contract extension. He is a proven winner, and homer has only proven he can pitch at AA. How many pitchers look great in the minors but fail in the majors, remember Ankiel.

Redmachine2003
07-27-2006, 12:25 PM
no, no, no, no, and no. I think Homer can bring to the table everything that Willis has to offer for less cost and we control Homer for the next 7 years.

Redmachine2003
07-27-2006, 12:28 PM
wow. talk about hyperbole. The chances of Homer Bailey ever putting up even one season as good as Dontrelle are pretty slim. Thta's not a knock on Homer as much as it is a reality that until you actually make it as a pitcher in majors.... you probably never will.
W-L ERA K Walks WHIP
6-7 3.97 92 47 1.43

I think Homer can match that.

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 12:31 PM
wow. talk about hyperbole. The chances of Homer Bailey ever putting up even one season as good as Dontrelle are pretty slim. Thta's not a knock on Homer as much as it is a reality that until you actually make it as a pitcher in majors.... you probably never will.

You mean one that Dontrelle put up in the past right? Becuase I dont see him EVER having another season like he has had in the past. His funky wind up doesnt fool people anymore, and he isnt striking guys out. Unless he finds a new pitch, he isnt going to be having any seasons like he has in the past.

While your little analogy about not making the majors is true for most pitchers, I dont think it works that way for top pitching prospects in baseball. They make the majors a lot more than other guys, simply becuase they are just better. Will Bailey ever pan out? No one knows. What I do know is the kid can throw 96-98 with movement on his FB, has a devastating curve ball when its on and a developing change up that is about 15 MPH slower than his FB is currently. I will take my chances with that over Dontrelle Willis and his less than 6k/9, and not even a 2-1 k/bb ratio. Its all a personal opinion, but I couldnt do that trade.

goreds2
07-27-2006, 12:35 PM
Yes, I would pull the trigger for Willis. His postseason experience would also be a PLUS.

Ltlabner
07-27-2006, 12:38 PM
What I do know is the kid can throw 96-98 with movement on his FB, Lot's of kids can throw hard...can they consistantly get it over the plate without getting hammered at the big league level?


has a devastating curve ball when its on Milton can be quite effective "when he's on". The question is, has he developed enough to "be on" reguarly at the big league level?


and a developing change up.....
Emphasis on the developing....

I'm not knocking Homer down as he holds a lot of promise but lets face it, he's not spent an entire year in AA yet, let alone AAA, let alone the bigs. It's just way to soon to hang the "second comming" title on him yet.

Steve4192
07-27-2006, 12:42 PM
While your little analogy about not making the majors is true for most pitchers, I dont think it works that way for top pitching prospects in baseball.

Edwin Jackson?
Ryan Anderson?
Jesse Foppert?

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 12:44 PM
Lot's of kids can throw hard...can they consistantly get it over the plate without getting hammered at the big league level?

He gets it over the plate now, I dont see why he wouldnt a year from now.


Milton can be quite effective "when he's on". The question is, has he developed enough to "be on" reguarly at the big league level?

Comparing a veteran to a 20 year old and having on and off days is a bad idea. The strides Bailey has made just from earlier this year in being on and off gives me enough confidence that he can be on, on a consistant basis.


Emphasis on the developing....

I'm not knocking Homer down as he holds a lot of promise but lets face it, he's not spent an entire year in AA yet, let alone AAA, let alone the bigs. It's just way to soon to hang the "second comming" title on him yet.

Dontrelle never spent a year in AA and never in AAA, he did fine with a lot less stuff. I am not hanging any second coming on him. I just dont like Willis. He is the most overrated pitcher in baseball. He doesnt strike guys out, and gives up a ton of hits. If thats what you find in a top quality pitcher, well you are living in the past. Dontrelle has been good before, but his numbers are not like they used to be. He used to strike guys out, he used to not allow base runners, he used to have a 3-1 k/bb ratio. Now? He gives up a lot of hits, he doesnt strike guys out and he doesnt even have a 2-1 k/bb ratio. Pass.

gonelong
07-27-2006, 12:46 PM
Ryan Anderson?
Jesse Foppert?

Ryan Anderson was the name I was trying to come up with yesterday in a convesation I was having.

Came into Spring Training with Detroit(?) and was blowing away the verterans and bragging about it. The vets where a bit PO'd about the whole thing.

Anderson was going to dominate. Ha.

GL

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 12:46 PM
Ryan Anderson?
Jesse Foppert?
Did they make it to the majors? I think so. Thats all I was saying, yes, they do make the majors.As for being good, thats another story. However the preseason top pitchers in the minors were guys named Verlander, Liriano, Billingsley and Cain.

Ltlabner
07-27-2006, 12:52 PM
He gets it over the plate now, I dont see why he wouldn't a year from now.

But he's getting over the AA plate...much better hitters at the major league level. He may be able to overpower less tallented hitters but in the bigs you can't get away with that for long.


Comparing a veteran to a 20 year old and having on and off days is a bad idea. The strides Bailey has made just from earlier this year in being on and off gives me enough confidence that he can be on, on a consistant basis. I wasn't comparing them, I was responding to your point that his curve is "devistating" when it's on...and the key element is "when it's on". He can't live on a fastball alone so he better have his curve and another pitch "on" very regularly.


Dontrelle never spent a year in AA and never in AAA, he did fine with a lot less stuff. I am not hanging any second coming on him. I just dont like Willis. He is the most overrated pitcher in baseball. He doesnt strike guys out, and gives up a ton of hits. If thats what you find in a top quality pitcher, well you are living in the past.

You don't like Willis...that's cool. But I was commenting more on Bailey alone and your comments about his current skill set.

Steve4192
07-27-2006, 12:55 PM
Did they make it to the majors? I think so. Thats all I was saying, yes, they do make the majors.As for being good, thats another story. However the preseason top pitchers in the minors were guys named Verlander, Liriano, Billingsley and Cain.

This season, the top prospects have panned out nicely. That is not always the case. In fact, it is rarely the case.

Edwin Jackson, Ryan Anderson, and Jesse Foppert were all, at one time or another, considered the best pitching prospect in the minors. None of 'em panned out. Methinks that if the Dodgers/Ms/Giants had a chance to do it all over again, they would gladly deal the 'best pitching prospect in the minors' while their prospect status was all bright and shiny.

pedro
07-27-2006, 12:58 PM
I'm no big fan of Willis'. I agree that he has a funky delivery. But this hype about Homer Bailey is getting a little out of control. If he was a sure thing he'd already be in the majors. Until then he is a big MAYBE.

Handofdeath
07-27-2006, 01:20 PM
IMHO, I think the Reds are more than one starter away from WS contention. Therefore, IMO do not mortgage the future for a high profile pitcher with questionable mechanics.

But the question was would you make the trade Bailey-Willis straight up? Willis in his short career has put up impressive numbers in the majors. Bailey has yet to put up impressive, well any numbers in AAA. Do you think in his best season Bailey can do what Willis did last season? Willis might never duplicate that or he could do even better. But unless you can guarantee me right now that Homer Bailey will be a Cy Young candidate and do better than what Willis has done, you have to make that deal.

Krusty
07-27-2006, 01:24 PM
But the question was would you make the trade Bailey-Willis straight up? Willis in his short career has put up impressive numbers in the majors. Bailey has yet to put up impressive, well any numbers in AAA. Do you think in his best season Bailey can do what Willis did last season? Willis might never duplicate that or he could do even better. But unless you can guarantee me right now that Homer Bailey will be a Cy Young candidate and do better than what Willis has done, you have to make that deal.

I think the Reds would have to add at least one, probably two more prospect in a deal for Willis.

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 01:32 PM
But the question was would you make the trade Bailey-Willis straight up? Willis in his short career has put up impressive numbers in the majors. Bailey has yet to put up impressive, well any numbers in AAA. Do you think in his best season Bailey can do what Willis did last season? Willis might never duplicate that or he could do even better. But unless you can guarantee me right now that Homer Bailey will be a Cy Young candidate and do better than what Willis has done, you have to make that deal.

That doesnt make any sense. The Reds shouldnt trade for what Willis has done, they should trade for what he will do in the future. If you dont think Willis will ever repeat his past success, why should you trade someone who has a high upside than Willis at his highest point, if you dont think Willis will ever return to that form?

Handofdeath
07-27-2006, 01:38 PM
He gets it over the plate now, I dont see why he wouldnt a year from now.

Comparing a veteran to a 20 year old and having on and off days is a bad idea. The strides Bailey has made just from earlier this year in being on and off gives me enough confidence that he can be on, on a consistant basis.


Dontrelle never spent a year in AA and never in AAA, he did fine with a lot less stuff. I am not hanging any second coming on him. I just dont like Willis. He is the most overrated pitcher in baseball. He doesnt strike guys out, and gives up a ton of hits. If thats what you find in a top quality pitcher, well you are living in the past. Dontrelle has been good before, but his numbers are not like they used to be. He used to strike guys out, he used to not allow base runners, he used to have a 3-1 k/bb ratio. Now? He gives up a lot of hits, he doesnt strike guys out and he doesnt even have a 2-1 k/bb ratio. Pass.

You can talk about ratios all you want and if you don't like Willis that's fine. But your pick for the "most overrated pitcher in baseball" is 24 years old and has a record of 52-34 with a 3.41 ERA. Show me a 24 year old pitcher with comparable numbers pitching now.

Jpup
07-27-2006, 03:16 PM
in a second.

registerthis
07-27-2006, 03:58 PM
You can talk about ratios all you want and if you don't like Willis that's fine. But your pick for the "most overrated pitcher in baseball" is 24 years old and has a record of 52-34 with a 3.41 ERA. Show me a 24 year old pitcher with comparable numbers pitching now.

No kidding.

Dontrelle's line from last year:
22 wins, 236.1 IP, 2.64 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 11 HR, .243 BAA

Overrated? More like "ace" material to me.

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 04:02 PM
You can talk about ratios all you want and if you don't like Willis that's fine. But your pick for the "most overrated pitcher in baseball" is 24 years old and has a record of 52-34 with a 3.41 ERA. Show me a 24 year old pitcher with comparable numbers pitching now.

He is spoken about around this place like the second coming of Pedro Mratinez or something. He has good career numbers for sure, and he has been impressive. Are all of his stats declining? Yes.
Does he have horrible mechanics? Yes.
Is he about to get really expensive? Yes.
Has he had a large workload in his career? Yes.

I cant trade a top 10 prospects, and possibly the top pitching prospect in all of baseball for that.

As for a 24 year old pitcher with comparable numbers. I submit Jake Peavy. 46-31 coming into the year, 3.33 career ERA. I submit Carlos Zambrano. 48-35 coming into the year, 3.26 career ERA.

crazybob60
07-27-2006, 04:03 PM
Really to me I am still way way way up in the air with this issue and I really wouldn't make this trade but I am a little biased on this issue as I am not a huge Dontrelle Willis fan and his previous seasons in the second half really do scare me ALOT. And even though Willis is an established SP in the Majors and Homer Bailey is not although he does have it written all over him, I still would have a lot of trouble pulling the trigger on this trade. I wish I could so that we could get another established arm in our rotation right away, but we might also be kicking ourselves for doing so in say 3-4 years if not sooner.

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 04:04 PM
No kidding.

Dontrelle's line from last year:
22 wins, 236.1 IP, 2.64 ERA, 170 Ks, 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 11 HR, .243 BAA

Overrated? More like "ace" material to me.

LAST YEAR. Dontrelle is nothing like that THIS YEAR.

This year, 158 hits in 143 innings, 47 walks and just 92 strikeouts, 12 HR, 3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP. Screams #3/#4 to me.

pedro
07-27-2006, 04:07 PM
LAST YEAR. Dontrelle is nothing like that THIS YEAR.

This year, 158 hits in 143 innings, 47 walks and just 92 strikeouts, 12 HR, 3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP. Screams #3/#4 to me.

And Homer Bailey will be extremely lucky if he ever puts up a season as good as that. Talk about thinking someone is the second coming of Pedro Martinez......

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 04:08 PM
Pedro, thats fine. I still like the chances of Homer Bailey putting up a better season than a 3.97 ERA and under 6k/9.

Ltlabner
07-27-2006, 04:09 PM
I cant trade a top 10 prospects, and possibly the top pitching prospect in all of baseball for that.

Is Homer really recognized as the "top pitching prospect" in all of baseball?

Puffy
07-27-2006, 04:10 PM
LAST YEAR. Dontrelle is nothing like that THIS YEAR.

This year, 158 hits in 143 innings, 47 walks and just 92 strikeouts, 12 HR, 3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP. Screams #3/#4 to me.

Its one year - kid is 24 years old and you have him on the decline already based on one year. Seaver had a bad year once or twice. Carlton had a bad year. Heck, Roger Clemens had such mediocre years that the Red Sox let him walk. And he won 4 Cy Youngs after that.

Its one year. He's 24. There is way, way more of a "probability" that he will bounce back over Bailey ever amounting to anything.

24 years old.

Matt700wlw
07-27-2006, 04:11 PM
Throw in Cabrera and I'll think about it :D

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 04:13 PM
Is Homer really recognized as the "top pitching prospect" in all of baseball?
Yes. Baseball America has some writers who say he is the best pitching prospect, the others have him as #2. Multiple other places have Bailey #1 also.

dougdirt
07-27-2006, 04:15 PM
Its one year - kid is 24 years old and you have him on the decline already based on one year. Seaver had a bad year once or twice. Carlton had a bad year. Heck, Roger Clemens had such mediocre years that the Red Sox let him walk. And he won 4 Cy Youngs after that.

Its one year. He's 24. There is way, way more of a "probability" that he will bounce back over Bailey ever amounting to anything.

24 years old.

He might bounce back....or he might wind up on Kremcheks operating table. No one really knows. What I know is that his numbers are in a decline and it is very worrisome, either injury wise, or guys have just figured him to an extent. Lets say he bounces back....is it next year? How about the year after? If its the year after that, he isnt a Red anymore and what good does that do for us? Not much. I think I am going to bow out of the conversation at this point. It seems a little more than half of the board would not do the trade. It seems a little less than half would.

Ltlabner
07-27-2006, 04:35 PM
Yes. Baseball America has some writers who say he is the best pitching prospect, the others have him as #2. Multiple other places have Bailey #1 also.

Ok cool...thanks.

registerthis
07-27-2006, 05:15 PM
LAST YEAR. Dontrelle is nothing like that THIS YEAR.

Feels like I'm beating the proverbial dead horse here, but the guy is 24 years old. And we're saying he's overrated because he's had one outstanding, one very good, and one average season under his belt by that age?

The Reds could be so lucky.

registerthis
07-27-2006, 05:28 PM
He might bounce back....or he might wind up on Kremcheks operating table. No one really knows. What I know is that his numbers are in a decline and it is very worrisome, either injury wise, or guys have just figured him to an extent.

Saying a player's numbers are in "decline" indicates a trend...a little more than half a season does not a trend make.

And, if we're going to talk micro-trends, since June 2 he's gone 5-1 with 4 no decisions, a 3.14 ERA and a K/9 rate of 6.52, which is his career average. In 8 of those 10 starts he has gone 7 innings or longer. Seeing as how he finished April with a 3.13 ERA, it appears that his "decline" can be traced to the month of May--specifically, the week of May 6. Some decline.

ThornWithin81
07-27-2006, 05:30 PM
Yes. Baseball America has some writers who say he is the best pitching prospect, the others have him as #2. Multiple other places have Bailey #1 also.

And that's exactly why I wouldn't trade him for a short-term solution in Dontrelle Willis. Even if Bailey never has a season as good as Willis' best, odds are we can keep Bailey around for the better part of a decade. Willis? Hardly. If Bailey is a guy who is a stable body in our rotation for 5 to 10 years, whether he's our Ace or a 3-4 type of guy, I'd rather take that than throw his potential at a player we would be losing within 3 seasons, almost certainly.

Puffy
07-27-2006, 05:33 PM
And that's exactly why I wouldn't trade him for a short-term solution in Dontrelle Willis. Even if Bailey never has a season as good as Willis' best, odds are we can keep Bailey around for the better part of a decade. Willis? Hardly. If Bailey is a guy who is a stable body in our rotation for 5 to 10 years, whether he's our Ace or a 3-4 type of guy, I'd rather take that than throw his potential at a player we would be losing within 3 seasons, almost certainly.

So you wouldn't have traded Pat Zachary for Tom Seaver then.

DeadRedinCT
07-27-2006, 05:33 PM
And that's exactly why I wouldn't trade him for a short-term solution in Dontrelle Willis. Even if Bailey never has a season as good as Willis' best, odds are we can keep Bailey around for the better part of a decade. Willis? Hardly. If Bailey is a guy who is a stable body in our rotation for 5 to 10 years, whether he's our Ace or a 3-4 type of guy, I'd rather take that than throw his potential at a player we would be losing within 3 seasons, almost certainly.

Willis wouldn't be a short term solution. He still arbitration eligible for the next three off seasons, becoming a FA after the 2009 season. He was eligible for arbitration after last season because he was what is known as a super 2 player.

His cost will go up but it's a cost that a GM can chart and plan.

ThornWithin81
07-27-2006, 05:35 PM
Willis wouldn't be a short term solution. He still arbitration eligible for the next three off seasons, becoming a FA after the 2009 season. He was eligible for arbitration after last season because he was what is known as a super 2 player.

His cost will go up but it's a cost that a GM can chart and plan.

Earlier I heard he was going to be a FA after 2007. Then 2008. Now 2009?

Clarity on that issue would be marvelous. I believe you on that, but I'm just a bit confused.

If keeping Willis would cost us the ability to keep Harang, Arroyo, or Dunn, its too high of a cost. That's what I'm worried about. There's only so many cookies in the Jar, and if everyone wants a handful, someone has to go hungry.

ThornWithin81
07-27-2006, 05:37 PM
So you wouldn't have traded Pat Zachary for Tom Seaver then.

I'd have to know more about Pat Zachary to react to that. But I don't think Dontrelle Willis is comparable to Tom Seaver, either.

Puffy
07-27-2006, 05:37 PM
Earlier I heard he was going to be a FA after 2007. Then 2008. Now 2009?

Clarity on that issue would be marvelous. I believe you on that, but I'm just a bit confused.

If keeping Willis would cost us the ability to keep Harang, Arroyo, or Dunn, its too high of a cost. That's what I'm worried about. There's only so many cookies in the Jar, and if everyone wants a handful, someone has to go hungry.

after the 2008 season.

Puffy
07-27-2006, 05:40 PM
I'd have to know more about Pat Zachary to react to that. But I don't think Dontrelle Willis is comparable to Tom Seaver, either.

Pat Zachary was the co-rookie of the year in 1976, so he had more of a resume than Homer Bailey at the time.

And you are right, Willis is no Seaver yet, but thats because Seaver is one of the greatest ever.

So, Willis was no Seaver, but Zachary was a ROY and a much more known quantity than Bailey.

DeadRedinCT
07-27-2006, 05:40 PM
Earlier I heard he was going to be a FA after 2007. Then 2008. Now 2009?

Clarity on that issue would be marvelous. I believe you on that, but I'm just a bit confused.

If keeping Willis would cost us the ability to keep Harang, Arroyo, or Dunn, its too high of a cost. That's what I'm worried about. There's only so many cookies in the Jar, and if everyone wants a handful, someone has to go hungry.


Go to this website: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

Click on "Marlins" on the left. Scroll down until you get to Dontrelle Willis contract. At the bottom you'll see his major league service time. At the end of the 2005 season it was 2 seasons and 143 days. A player can only become a FA until that player has acquire six full seasons of major league service time. Doing the math, he'll have 3.143 after 2006, 4.148 after 2007, 5.143 after 2008 (not quite sixfull seasons). Hence, he'll be arbitration eligible after the 2008 season.

So any team acquiring Willis at this point would still have him under control for three more seasons.

James B.
07-27-2006, 06:11 PM
Let's see. A proven #1 starter for a minor league prospect. I think that is a pretty easy decision. I would like to see what the reds could do in the playoffs with Harang,Willis and Arroyo. I think they would stand a good chance of going to the world series.

KySteveH
07-27-2006, 09:17 PM
Yes, I much prefer Willis from Different Strokes over Bailey from WKRP in Cincinnati. I would do this trade.

goreds2
07-28-2006, 12:08 PM
From the CINCY Post:

That shaky start you figure Homer Bailey must have in him at some point? It didn't happen Thursday night.

The right-hander made his sixth start for Chattanooga and the results were in line with his previous five. Bailey worked six scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 0.74 as he allowed five hits and two walks while striking out eight.

Since moving up to Chattanooga, Bailey has conceded just 22 hits while striking out 39 in 36 2/3 innings