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flyer85
07-27-2006, 10:30 AM
the top 10 for the National league

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/contending-holes-national-league/


8. Eric Milton, starting pitcher, Cincinnati Reds


Innings: 101.1
ERA: 5.37

Eric Milton (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=Milton&firstName=Eric) has done most things a pitcher needs to do reasonably well: he doesn't give up many hits (just over one an inning), he doesn't walk many guys (2.5 per 9 innings) and strikes out an adequate number of batters (5.5 per 9 innings). There's just one thing he struggles at, and if you're reading this site, you probably know that it's the worst possible weakness to have while pitching in the Great American Ballpark: giving up home runs. According to the 2006 Hardball Times Annual, Great American increases the rate at which fly balls turn into home runs by 11%, which is how it's possible for Milton to be such a bad pitcher despite so many positive skills.

It was obvious to everyone that Milton's signing was a bad idea at the time, and it's even more obvious now that he's taking up nearly $10 million of the Reds' $61 million Opening Day payroll. Given the lack of better options, Milton's contract and the fact that general manager Wayne Krivsky seems to have shot his wad with the Austin Kearns-Felipe Lopez deal, Reds fans will likely have to put up with Milton for the time being. However, it will be interesting to see if Krivskey, who wasn't with the Reds when they signed Milton, does to address the situation in the offseason.

2. Royce Clayton, shortstop, Cincinnati Reds


Plate appearances: 374
OPS: .655

Royce Clayton (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=Clayton&firstName=Royce) used to make his living as a slick-fielding, light hitting shortstop. And it's been quite a living—looking at his career stats, it amazes me that Clayton's been around for so long (will be over 2000 career games by season's end) without even once having had a good season at the plate. Now, at age 36, the bat is still as light, but Clayton's defensive skills, so long his calling card, have long since gone from good to pedestrian, leaving him past the point where he's a useful player.

Still, in the framework of this season, there is room for hope. Taking defense into account, Felipe Lopez (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=Lopez&firstName=Felipe) wasn't actually giving the Reds that much production either. Last year, his hot hitting made his atrocious defense tolerable—this year, sans the .838 OPS, he's been a liability, posting an OPS less than 50 points higher than Clayton's, but with much worse defense. Sure, Lopez about 10 years younger and possesses much greater upside, but the Reds have managed to contend with the not quite hitting, no fielding Lopez to this point, so the downgrade to Clayton's production shouldn't be dramatic for the rest of the season.

That still doesn't make it a good deal, though, since when dealing with two comparable players the obvious move is always to take the younger one. On the other hand, Lopez was also making more money, and Krivsky felt he needed the upgrade in the bullpen. If the Reds make the playoffs this year and their bullpen acquisitions pitch well, then swapping a younger, more expensive hole at shortstop for an older, cheaper hole was probably worth it. Of course, there's also the matter of Austin Kearns (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=Kearns&firstName=Austin), but that's a whole 'nother column.

Of note, the Cards have 4 on the list.

Marc D
07-27-2006, 10:36 AM
How could our #5 starter, whomever that may be, not make this list? IMO we can overcome a Milton start every 5 days. We cannot overcome a Milton start followed by someone actually worse every 5 days.

The #5 starter and Griffeys monumental slump look like the 2 main factors that will make us or break heading into the last 60 games.

BRM
07-27-2006, 10:38 AM
Of note, the Cards have 4 on the list.

Miles, Marquis, Molina, and Weaver. Weaver is # 1 by the way.

PuffyPig
07-27-2006, 10:58 AM
Miles, Marquis, Molina, and Weaver. Weaver is # 1 by the way.

The Cards have 4 starters with DIPS ERA's at 5 and above(Marquis, Suppan, Reyes, and Weaver).

That's like 4 Milton's in the rotation.

Red Leader
07-27-2006, 11:01 AM
The Cards have 4 starters with DIPS ERA's at 5 and above(Marquis, Suppan, Reyes, and Weaver).

That's like 4 Milton's in the rotation.

Well, just wait until Mulder comes back. :evil:

IslandRed
07-27-2006, 11:26 AM
How could our #5 starter, whomever that may be, not make this list?

Probably because pretty much everyone's #5 starter stinks, so that's just set aside as a given.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2006, 12:16 PM
The Cards have 4 starters with DIPS ERA's at 5 and above(Marquis, Suppan, Reyes, and Weaver).

That's like 4 Milton's in the rotation.

That's when it's oh so sweet to have a killer bullpen. (And DIPS ERA can't show that Suppan is slowly but surely yet completely turning his season around--there's not been a better starter in the NL since the All-Star break than Jeff Suppan). And Reyes' sample is too small--he'll be fine.

flyer85
07-27-2006, 12:25 PM
Probably because pretty much everyone's #5 starter stinks, so that's just set aside as a given.... and the Reds don't have one at the moment.

BRM
07-27-2006, 12:36 PM
... and the Reds don't have one at the moment.

Is a bad 5th starter better or worse than no fifth starter? What about the fact that Milton is actually the Reds #4 and he is likely worse than most team's #5?

Red Leader
07-27-2006, 12:39 PM
Personally if I were the Reds I'd try to seperate Milton and the #5 starter as much as possible. Then the bullpen would at least get some rest between those spots instead of getting worn out 2 days in a row.

acredsfan
07-27-2006, 12:46 PM
It amazes me that after all the bad talk about the trade, all of the sudden the media has quit listing the bullpen as the Red's weakest link. It seems to be missed in all of the arguing about how lopsided the trade was, but now all of the sudden that hole has been patched so it would seem, but the media doesn't want to admit it. All the criticism of Krivsky but in my eye he accomplished what he was hired to do, make this team a contender, and he has strengthened the team by improving their greatest weakness. You can argue all day about the value of Kearns and Lopez, but as long as we are winning, who cares? I'm just getting worried about Arroyo, it seems they should maybe work to give him an extra days rest here and there to try and rest him for the final stretch where hopefully we will need him most.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2006, 12:48 PM
If the media aren't talking about the bullpen as one of the Reds' weaknesses, they should be. Because it's still a glaring weakness.

acredsfan
07-27-2006, 01:12 PM
If the media aren't talking about the bullpen as one of the Reds' weaknesses, they should be. Because it's still a glaring weakness.Really? I seem to believe it was a bad defensive play and Arroyo in the 5th blowing it last night. The bullpen seems to be holding up just fine since the trade. I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but from what i recall they have been solid. the glaring weakness to me is the rotation, not that its as bad as it was last year, but if Arroyo continues to faulter and the back end continues to pitch the way it has things aren't looking good. I think Elizardo is still living on the first few starts he made, he's been less than spectacular since.

PuffyPig
07-27-2006, 01:18 PM
(And DIPS ERA can't show that Suppan is slowly but surely yet completely turning his season around--there's not been a better starter in the NL since the All-Star break than Jeff Suppan). And Reyes' sample is too small--he'll be fine.

How can Reyes' 8 starts be too small a sample size, while Suppan's 3 starts since the all star break be a sign that "he's completely turned his season around"?

Once might suggest that if you don't like the result, you howl "small sample size", yet will trust forth any result you do like even if that sample size is much smaller.

Oh, and Reyes's ERA since the all star break is 6.97...he's turning his season around too, but in the wrong direction.

TeamBoone
07-27-2006, 01:43 PM
I'm just getting worried about Arroyo, it seems they should maybe work to give him an extra days rest here and there to try and rest him for the final stretch where hopefully we will need him most.

Arroyo is the least of the Reds' problems... in fact, IMHO, he isn't a problem. He had one bad inning. In actuality, I believe he's had two, maybe three, bad games. He's had 3-4 starts that should have garnered him a win... but bullpen problems or lack of run support prevented that from happening.

Every pitcher has a bad night now and then (heck, look at Harang outing two starts ago).

Arroyo is solid and is not deteriorating, regardless of last nights one-inning meltdown.

Chip R
07-27-2006, 01:51 PM
Miles, Marquis, Molina, and Weaver. Weaver is # 1 by the way.

Weren't they talking about Marquis being a potential Cy Young candidate on Baseball Tonight the other night?

acredsfan
07-27-2006, 01:53 PM
Arroyo is the least of the Reds' problems... in fact, IMHO, he isn't a problem. He had one bad inning. In actuality, I believe he's had two, maybe three, bad games. He's had 3-4 starts that should have garnered him a win... but bullpen problems or lack of run support prevented that from happening.

Every pitcher has a bad night now and then (heck, look at Harang outing two starts ago).

Arroyo is solid and is not deteriorating, regardless of last nights one-inning meltdown.Its not so much the bad inning or string of starts, its his stamina that I'm worried about, he's pitched deep into every game whether he's pitched bad or not, and as much as he says he can throw curve balls all day, it still has to be wearing on him. Maybe I'm just too used to the Reds having bad luck with pitcher's arms, but he's only thrown over 200 innings once and that was last year, and his number of pitches per game is higher this year than last and he's already up to 150 innings pitched.

SEASON TEAM G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
2000 Pit 20 12 0 0 71.2 88 61 51 10 36 50 2 6 0 0 -- 6.41
2001 Pit 24 13 1 0 88.1 99 54 50 12 34 39 5 7 0 2 -- 5.09
2002 Pit 9 4 0 0 27.0 30 14 12 1 15 22 2 1 0 1 -- 4.00
2003 Bos 6 0 0 0 17.1 10 5 4 0 4 14 0 0 1 0 0 2.08
2004 Bos 32 29 0 0 178.2 171 99 80 17 47 142 10 9 0 0 -- 4.03
2005 Bos 35 32 0 0 205.1 213 116 103 22 54 100 14 10 0 0 -- 4.52
2006 Cin 22 22 2 0 151.2 144 59 54 20 34 118 9 6 0 0 -- 3.20
Total -- 148 112 3 0 740.0 755 408 354 82 224 485 42 39 1 3 0 4.31

SEASON TEAM W% #PIT TBF #P/PA #P/IP #P/GS K/9 K/BB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2000 Pit .250 1177 338 3.48 16.4 79.8 6.28 1.39 .302 .384 .488 .867
2001 Pit .417 1317 390 3.38 14.9 77.4 3.97 1.15 .289 .355 .477 .828
2002 Pit .667 422 123 3.43 15.6 78.0 7.33 1.47 .283 .369 .387 .753
2003 Bos -- 224 66 3.39 12.9 -- 7.27 3.50 .164 .227 .262 .490
2004 Bos .526 2814 764 3.68 15.8 94.7 7.15 3.02 .249 .314 .403 .714
2005 Bos .583 3302 878 3.76 16.1 101.0 4.38 1.85 .266 .322 .438 .758
2006 Cin .600 2415 592 4.08 15.9 104.9 7.00 3.47 .262 .304 .424 .725
Total -- .519 11671 3151 3.70 15.8 94.3 5.90 2.17 .266 .327 .431 .755

Falls City Beer
07-27-2006, 01:55 PM
How can Reyes' 8 starts be too small a sample size, while Suppan's 3 starts since the all star break be a sign that "he's completely turned his season around"?

Once might suggest that if you don't like the result, you howl "small sample size", yet will trust forth any result you do like even if that sample size is much smaller.

Oh, and Reyes's ERA since the all star break is 6.97...he's turning his season around too, but in the wrong direction.

Color me corrected. I hadn't seen Reyes' numbers lately. I shouldn't trust my memory. Those are some terrible numbers for Reyes.

Reds1
07-27-2006, 02:19 PM
The Cards have 4 starters with DIPS ERA's at 5 and above(Marquis, Suppan, Reyes, and Weaver).

That's like 4 Milton's in the rotation.

Except Suppan is on freakin fire now, but for sure their pitching is their problem.

dabvu2498
07-27-2006, 02:59 PM
Weren't they talking about Marquis being a potential Cy Young candidate on Baseball Tonight the other night?
That's what you get for watching Baseball Tonight!!! 12-7 5.62 ERA 1.38 WHIP

KronoRed
07-27-2006, 04:34 PM
How could our #5 starter, whomever that may be, not make this list? IMO we can overcome a Milton start every 5 days. We cannot overcome a Milton start followed by someone actually worse every 5 days.

The #5 starter and Griffeys monumental slump look like the 2 main factors that will make us or break heading into the last 60 games.
Milton is really our 3, we ran him out there first game out of the all star break ;)

I agree on JR, if he keeps slumping like this we'll have some serious problems.

oregonred
07-27-2006, 05:01 PM
Just fries me that Milton + KGJ = 30% of the Reds payroll...

Uncle Milty ahs been fine as a #4/5 starter -- just PULL him immediately after 6 innings!!!! Would have been 3/3 on Unlce Milty QS since the break if this simple Milton late game automatic suckometer was simply activiated. He's contributed a lot more than KGJ (I know, who hasn't) since in the 2nd half.

Agree on separating the starters. Sucks having Harang + Arroyo back to back.

Killer loss like last night w/Arroyo and then we've got three days of prayer until we get back to Harang.

Chip R
07-28-2006, 08:52 AM
That's what you get for watching Baseball Tonight!!! 12-7 5.62 ERA 1.38 WHIP

I only watch it for the scores, I swear. ;)