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Matt700wlw
07-27-2006, 03:49 PM
-His career numbers after last night: 42-40 4.31
Did you expect him to win 18-20 games? (actually, yes I did based on the first half.)

-He has 9 wins....and should make 12 more starts. Can he get 12-15 wins?
His career high is 14 wins.

-He has throw +100 pitches in 15 consecutive starts and 18 of his last 19 starts

-He's on pace to throw 242 innings....his career best is 205

-He's on pace to throw 400+ pitches more this year than any year in his career.


-0-4 since June 19

-0-3 5.45 in July

-8 hr's in last 33 innings




From Lance's blog www.lance1530homer.com

2001MUgrad
07-27-2006, 06:23 PM
I'll now be surprised if he wins 15. He seems to be this years version of Jack Armstrong. Although they did win the WS that year. Maybe a good foreshadow.

ThornWithin81
07-27-2006, 06:26 PM
Right now I just think he's reached a point of major frustration with this 10th win thing. I think that, once he gets it behind him, he'll rack up a handful of wins before the season is out.

I'd peg him for 13 or 14 wins by the end of the year. If I had to go on the record, I'd say 14.

Joseph
07-27-2006, 06:27 PM
I think, just as many warned early on, that he is reverting to career norms. The pendulum has to swing back the opposite direction hard to counterbalance his first half.

Matt700wlw
07-27-2006, 06:27 PM
I'll now be surprised if he wins 15. He seems to be this years version of Jack Armstrong. Although they did win the WS that year. Maybe a good foreshadow.

This comparison wouldn't be coming up if he would be at his 15th win, like he should be...


But he's not, and that is, for the most part, not his fault.

Cyclone792
07-27-2006, 06:32 PM
Never forget that start on June 13th ...

Arroyo's pitch count by inning: 21, 13, 14, 17, 14, 32, 16 = 127 total pitches

I said it during the game thread that night, I said it two weeks ago, and I'll say it again ... that was total irresponsibility on Jerry Narron's part to send Arroyo out there for his final inning after having completed a 32-pitch inning and sitting at 111 pitches. Sadly, I'm not at all surprised about Bronson's struggles since then, and his 1.83 HR/9 is a sure sign of struggling - he's given up at least one home run in every start since June 13th.

Protect your workhorses; don't abuse them. If Arroyo gives us an ERA in the 4.50-5.00 range during the final two months, this team is flat out finished, and I'll be pointing the fingers squarely on Jerry Narron for that. People seem more worried about which Milton-like pitcher Krivsky might acquire in the next few days, but the fact remains that we need Arroyo to be performing well to have any shot.

Protect our pitchers, Jerry. Don't you dare ruin them.

registerthis
07-27-2006, 06:32 PM
I think, just as many warned early on, that he is reverting to career norms. The pendulum has to swing back the opposite direction hard to counterbalance his first half.

His ERA remains far below his career norms, yet he's pitching at a pace that will devastate his previous career high in IP. Every pitcher has fluctuations throughout the season, it doesn't mean they're going in the tank.

As I posted in another thread, Arroyo's had one bad inning in his last three starts, which consists of 21 2/3 innings. this is the time of year when players tend to wilt, particularly if they're on pace to exceed their career high in workload. Arroyo isn't really showing signs of that.

Eric_Davis
07-27-2006, 06:34 PM
Arroyo will finish 16-9!

Ltlabner
07-27-2006, 06:35 PM
Never forget that start on June 13th ...

Arroyo's pitch count by inning: 21, 13, 14, 17, 14, 32, 16 = 127 total pitches

I said it during the game thread that night, I said it two weeks ago, and I'll say it again ... that was total irresponsibility on Jerry Narron's part to send Arroyo out there for his final inning after having completed a 32-pitch inning and sitting at 111 pitches. Sadly, I'm not at all surprised about Bronson's struggles since then, and his 1.83 HR/9 is a sure sign of struggling - he's given up at least one home run in every start since June 13th.

Protect your workhorses; don't abuse them. If Arroyo gives us an ERA in the 4.50-5.00 range during the final two months, this team is flat out finished, and I'll be pointing the fingers squarely on Jerry Narron for that. People seem more worried about which Milton-like pitcher Krivsky might acquire in the next few days, but the fact remains that we need Arroyo to be performing well to have any shot.

Protect our pitchers, Jerry. Don't you dare ruin them.


Couldn't agree more Cyclone. I posted very simular thoughts on another thread. I hope that BA and AH get used more wisley now that we have an improved bullpen so that they aren't out of gas in the late strech.

Was the game you were refering to the complete game loss to Atlanta ?

ThornWithin81
07-27-2006, 06:37 PM
Arroyo will finish 16-9!

We can only hope. :beerme:

Cyclone792
07-27-2006, 06:41 PM
Couldn't agree more Cyclone. I posted very simular thoughts on another thread. I hope that BA and AH get used more wisley now that we have an improved bullpen so that they aren't out of gas in the late strech.

Was the game you were refering to the complete game loss to Atlanta ?

It was a loss at home to the Brewers.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=260613117

What made it even worse was Arroyo batted for himself during the bottom of the sixth inning despite the fact that his pitch count was 111 pitches and he had just finished a 32-pitch inning.

Since then, Arroyo's ERA is 4.50 and his DIPS ERA is 4.99. My thank you card to Narron for that June 13th outing is on its way already.

Ltlabner
07-27-2006, 06:53 PM
It was a loss at home to the Brewers.

Thanks. I couldn't believe at the time, and still don't, that you'd leave a pitcher in, who already was leading the league in IP at that time (or close to the top) in for a complete game....LOSS. I know the bullpen was horrible but come on.

RBA
07-27-2006, 07:14 PM
Now the time to offer him an extension on his contract. Stress to him he hasn't won a game in over a month.

boognish
07-27-2006, 09:07 PM
It was a loss at home to the Brewers.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=260613117

What made it even worse was Arroyo batted for himself during the bottom of the sixth inning despite the fact that his pitch count was 111 pitches and he had just finished a 32-pitch inning.

Since then, Arroyo's ERA is 4.50 and his DIPS ERA is 4.99. My thank you card to Narron for that June 13th outing is on its way already.

I had the pleasure of being there to express my incredulity...what made it worse was that the Reds were down one at the time with a runner on (Olmedo) and two out.

Harang's track record--referring to the point that he did not fade in September last season as he did in 2004 and had a similar per-start workload as last season until the statistical outlier of the rain-shortened start at home against the Mets--shows he can handle Narron riding him pretty hard...Arroyo is a different beast altogether and I agree whole-heartedly with Cyclone that Narron's refusal to take 15 minutes and look at the amount Arroyo has worked in the past could lead to his 2006 season being derailed prematurely...whether due to injury or ineffectiveness.

I can tolerate the crazy line-up tinkering or Aurilia in the cleanup spot every day in spite of the heavy platoon splits. However, Narron's irresponsible mismanagement of Arroyo is inexcusable. :thumbdown

Wheelhouse
07-28-2006, 07:11 AM
I think, just as many warned early on, that he is reverting to career norms. The pendulum has to swing back the opposite direction hard to counterbalance his first half.

Arroyo's pitching did not revert back to anything---we all know he should have AT LEAST 13 wins right now had the bullpen (and the offense at certain points) given him just a little bit of support. Arroyo is no Jack Armstrong, he is a smart, resourceful pitcher who has a number of good years ahead of him and he will only get better. His ERA is way, way below his career norm and I for one, do not expect him to put up many 6-run innings, which skews his ERA over his past 6 starts.

icehole3
07-28-2006, 07:55 AM
I agree with backing them off next month. Pitch them like they do Ramirez. After 6 innings they should be rested for a month, if theyre going to the playoffs (if) you dont want them having dead arms in late september.

StillFunkyB
07-28-2006, 08:15 AM
The hitters have made an adjustment.

I think he just needs to make one himself, and it will be all good.

I could be wrong though, he might have hit a wall.