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View Full Version : 88 is the number... Can We Make 34-26 Happen in the Last 60???



oregonred
07-28-2006, 02:00 AM
102 down and 60 games left...

Reds stand at 54-48 and 2.5 up in the WC

I believe 88 wins would seal at least a Reds Wild Card in the parity of medicority known as the National League.

The NL West seems to be falling back into a .500 collection with the Rockies/Dodgers fading, but capable of holding their own against their own division. The Reds crucial stretch of games include a ten game West Coast trip and that might make/break the season for the Reds/Giants in particular.

88 wins? The Giants/Dbacks need 37-23 and 37-24 respectively. Possible, but that's a high win % against mainly the NL West. Giants/Reds upcoming series becomes pretty huge looking forward.

The Marlins and Braves look to be sexy WC threats on the edges. However both have struggled within their own division and mathematically being 5-6 under .500 means you need to close with a barrage to get to 88 wins.

88 Wins?

Braves would need 40-21, Marlins would need 41-21. Possible but the NL East parity and division rivalries make that seem a reach. As the season rolls along, mathematically even being 5-6 back in the Wild Card starts to become a harder climb by the week. Lets root for the Mets to put the final hammer on the ATL this weekend.

Houston/Brewers. Reds have done there part this week to put both of them to bed. Both would need 40-20 to hit 88 wins. Not going to happen.

Thus we come back to the Reds. 88 is the magic number.

So we need a 34-26 finish. Won't be easy, but feels doable. If 86 or 87 wins somehow gets it done to win the division or the NL Central then we need 32-28 or 33-27. Blowing one like Wed night in Houston really hurt, but salvaging the series was huge. What scares me is a nasty West Coast swing in late August, but I think our pitching staff will be fine out West. We actually have some starting and BP arms to compete almost every night for once this millenium. Opportunity is the 7 game stretch against the Cards from Aug 7-17. Win 5 of 7 and the Reds are a serious division threat.

Mathematically at least, the Reds stand in decent shape to control their own postseason destiny with a modest 34-26 (.567 win percentage) run from here on out.

TIme to find a way to win 2/3 in Milwaukee and keep this thing rolling into August...

Virginia Beach Reds
07-28-2006, 07:43 AM
Excellent post. I believe it is entirely possible. The west coast trip as you said will be a really big one. Also, ATL comes to Cincy next week I believe and traditionally ATL owns CIN.

GoReds
07-28-2006, 08:59 AM
Using the golf analogy, we have 7 holes left to play (in the middle of a hole now).

If we par the remaining 6 holes, we would be 30-24. Combine that with our current week record (2-1) and that would project to 32-25. We go 2-1 this weekend in Milwaukee and you'll have the 34-26 record to get to 88 games.

It's doable.

dabvu2498
07-28-2006, 09:09 AM
Why not us??? :)

PuffyPig
07-28-2006, 10:06 AM
Hey, the way things are going, we could finish the year 31-31 and make the wild card.

But logic suggest that at least one of the wild card pretenders will suddenly become a 56% team, so we need to probably be better than that to win. Somebody has to get hot you would think, even though (other than us) no one seems to be able to do it.

redsfan30
07-28-2006, 11:20 AM
It's absolutely doable.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2006, 11:22 AM
The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

Mario-Rijo
07-28-2006, 11:43 AM
If Dunn stays hot and Griffey starts swinging it, with a modest trade for an arm we got it. Or if Claussen comes back and finds the consistency he showed end of last season beginning of this season it's doable. I still think we need another RH bat, but if those 2 aforementioned are hot it's gonna be fun.

BRM
07-28-2006, 11:44 AM
The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

A good starter. Not a Kyle Lohse or Rodrigo Lopez.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2006, 11:45 AM
A good starter. Not a Kyle Lohse or Rodrigo Lopez.

Of course.

BRM
07-28-2006, 11:52 AM
Of course.

I wasn't trying to be a smart aleck or anything. Just adding on to your post a little. :)

I agree they are probably two arms away from the WC.

NDRed
07-28-2006, 12:03 PM
The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.


If that were true how could we possibly be leading the Wild Card race?

:bang:

Falls City Beer
07-28-2006, 12:08 PM
If that were true how could we possibly be leading the Wild Card race?

:bang:

A hot start? :confused:

TOBTTReds
07-28-2006, 12:48 PM
The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

I see what you are saying. We are kind of hanging by a thread with 3 starters and an OK bullpen. But after the trade I am satisfied with our bullpen bc if one guy isn't getting it done, we can actually change pitchers and hope the next guy gets someone out, where in the past it was Rick White or die.

We could use another starter to bolster us further ahead. A 2 game lead in the WC is not sufficient. The thing I do like is that there seems to be only 2 teams chasing us now, where a week ago it seemed like there were 10 teams within 4 games.

NDRed
07-28-2006, 01:38 PM
I see what you are saying. We are kind of hanging by a thread with 3 starters and an OK bullpen. But after the trade I am satisfied with our bullpen bc if one guy isn't getting it done, we can actually change pitchers and hope the next guy gets someone out, where in the past it was Rick White or die.

We could use another starter to bolster us further ahead. A 2 game lead in the WC is not sufficient. The thing I do like is that there seems to be only 2 teams chasing us now, where a week ago it seemed like there were 10 teams within 4 games.

However, every team has significant holes and I think we are in as good of a position as any of the WC contenders.

zombie-a-go-go
07-28-2006, 01:44 PM
where in the past it was Rick White or die.

Reflect on that for a moment.

Rick White or die.

*shudder*

:)

Ltlabner
07-28-2006, 01:47 PM
Reflect on that for a moment.

Rick White or die.

*shudder*

:)

Just think how much better it would have been if we only pitched him how he thought he should be pitched!

princeton
07-28-2006, 01:50 PM
The Reds are a starter and a bullpen arm away (maybe two if Guardado goes down) from the Wild Card spot.

We've come a LONG way in four months.

my guess is that the Reds are looking for a starter and a bat. The bullpen is done. Might not work, but it's done.

Ltlabner
07-28-2006, 01:55 PM
We've come a LONG way in four months.

my guess is that the Reds are looking for a starter and a bat. The bullpen is done. Might not work, but it's done.

Aint that the truth princeton? 9 DFA's. Arroyo, Philips, Ross, Everday Eddie, Bray, Majic (althought I know he's struggling thus far). What a radically different team than what it looked like just prior to the begining of spring training this year.

I know people aren't happy with Kriv and "the trade". But serriously, look where we are 4 days from August compared to where we've been at the same time in the past 5 years. And it's not 7 months out of the end of the Lindner/Allen/OBrian era (not to mention Schott and Jimbo).

I can understand why people are waiting for "the implosion" and maybe it will still happen. But I'm excited about where the team is now and where it's going in the future.

oregonred
07-28-2006, 02:05 PM
The Milwaukee trade should help us just by getting Lee out for this series and hopefully Cordero is slow to arrive to Sausageland to help their pen. However, this is it for the Reds/Brewers playing in 2006 -- so the Reds impact is fairly minimal this season. Long term it seems the Brew Crew didn't really get much for Lee other then maybe the ok Mench (Cordero looks to be a rental). Can't comment on the minor leaguers although the Brewers look to have given up a pretty good OF prospect. First glance: Advantage Rangers

However the Cardinals have TEN games left with the Brewers and the Marlins still have all seven games left with the Brew Crew. No Lee + several mediocre Cards starters = Big Advantage Cards.

Need 2/3 this weekend.

oregonred
07-30-2006, 05:34 PM
Seriously the Brewers have no redeeming value for the Reds at all. They make the Reds life difficult every year, add a 6th team to crowd the division and the Reds have to market 1/9th of their home schedule a year against a no-draw opponent that no one cares about. Good news is the Reds are done with them and they can go back to their mediocre ways against the rest of the NL -- except hopefully the Cards.

By losing the final two the Reds simply missed a huge chance this weekend to make the WC a 3 team NL race (Reds, Ariz, SF) and bury the Braves/Brewers/Marlins/Astros once and for all. Giants trying to salvage a final game at Pitt, but with the Mets sweeping the Braves and the Fish losing two in a row to Philly it still ended up being an ok weekend. The Brew Crew plays the Cards TEN times the rest of the way. The Astros look done, but the Brewers regain a little hope and the Braves/Marlins are further on NL East life support.

Cards being swept by the Little Bears (and no Carpenter until next weekend), the NL Central still is very a possibility. Cards could have almost locked down the division with by winning 3/4 at Wrigley. :)

88 for the Reds now means 33-24 -- the math keeps getting harder when you lose a series

Good news is given a weekend of futility by the entire NL (except Arizona taking 2/3), the oregonred magic WC number is being revised down to 87 wins. Which means 32-25 for the Reds.

George Foster
07-30-2006, 10:18 PM
I said the same thing in April. I thought then that 90 was the magic number.

90 might win the division.

3 games over .500 a month is all we need!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe is short term goals, that can be accomplished. If you can accomplish your short term goals it leads to long term success.

That being said, All we need to do is go 3 games over .500 a month. It's a 6 month season. That is 18 games over .500 or 90-72. That will get you a wild card, 9 out of 10 years. I honestly think if we can remain healthy, this is a goal that can be reached.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-30-2006, 11:13 PM
I said the same thing in April. I thought then that 90 was the magic number.

90 might win the division.

3 games over .500 a month is all we need!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I believe is short term goals, that can be accomplished. If you can accomplish your short term goals it leads to long term success.

That being said, All we need to do is go 3 games over .500 a month. It's a 6 month season. That is 18 games over .500 or 90-72. That will get you a wild card, 9 out of 10 years. I honestly think if we can remain healthy, this is a goal that can be reached.

But with two months left and at 55 wins (5 over), they need to go 13 over (35-22) the last two months.

With this lineup, middling middle relief pitching, and black hole at the bottom of the rotation - impossible.

oregonred
08-04-2006, 03:53 AM
Arrghh. I jinxed us for sure. What a golden week of NL contender futility missed when even a boring 3-3 mark in the last six games would have turned this thing into a nice Reds pad.

With a hideously timed 5-game skid, it's an unlikely 33-21 to get to 88-74... Good news is that through an amazing stroke of Cards ineptness against the Cubs/Phils, the division remains very much in play

A week later the math and analysis seems right on. It really is a WC race between the Reds/Cards and the NL West eventual runner-up from that 5-team pile up. 88 is looking about 98% sure like a WC (and maybe NL Central) winning number. I'd say 86 is a good bet at this point.

The Braves/Marlins/Astros/Brewers/Giants are done unless somehow 83-84 wins end up taking the WC. Then one of them might have a chance.

Marc D
08-04-2006, 07:35 AM
With a hideously timed 5-game skid, it's an unlikely 33-21 to get to 88-74... Good news is that through an amazing stroke of Cards ineptness against the Cubs/Phils, the division remains very much in play


Or you can look at it from the perspective of this being the second 7+ game skid the Cards have had this year and were still 3.5 GB. When do we start to be honest with ourselves and admit this team is a .500 club at best but we are fortunate enough to be in a season when that might actually be good enough?