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View Full Version : Belliard to Cards!



redlegs7089
07-30-2006, 05:01 PM
great another reds killer in our division:(

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2006, 05:02 PM
That may be a big move for the Cardinals. Who did they give up?

redlegs7089
07-30-2006, 05:03 PM
hector luna

traderumor
07-30-2006, 05:11 PM
in other news, the Indians sent down Ramon Vazquez earlier this week to call up Andy Marte, you know, the guy that they kept and DFAd Brandon Phillips. Now, they traded away their current 2nd baseman for nothing. Not exactly a series of moves Shapiro should put on his resume.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2006, 05:13 PM
Not much to give up for Belliard, in my opinion. Good trade by the Redbirds.

Brutus
07-30-2006, 05:16 PM
Hmm, I think Hector Luna is somewhat underrated. He brings to the table much of what Belliard does.

Belliard 348 AB (.289 BA, 8 HR 44 RBI, 2 SB, .754 OPS)
H. Luna 223 AB (.291 BA, 4 HR 21 RBI, 5 SB, .772 OPS)

That's pretty much a wash if you give Luna the same amount of at-bats.

EDIT: Also, Luna has an .816 zone rating with 4 errors this year at 2B while Belliard has a .782 with 8 errors

This is a terrific trade for the Indians IMO and St. Louis didn't really upgrade their team much.

Petitt33
07-30-2006, 05:26 PM
I'm watching the Cubs-Cards on WGN and Luna is still in the game at second base...

flyer85
07-30-2006, 05:54 PM
This is a terrific trade for the Indians IMO and St. Louis didn't really upgrade their team much.good trade when you don't have to play Miles everyday.

MattyHo4Life
07-30-2006, 06:22 PM
Belliard 348 AB (.289 BA, 8 HR 44 RBI, 2 SB, .754 OPS)
H. Luna 223 AB (.291 BA, 4 HR 21 RBI, 5 SB, .772 OPS)

That's pretty much a wash if you give Luna the same amount of at-bats.


Luna hasn't proven that he can be an everyday player though. That is why he has been sharing 2B with Miles. If you play Luna everyday, his stats will probably look a lot different. Luna is an ok player half the time.

Brutus
07-30-2006, 06:27 PM
Matty, 223 at-bats is a pretty good chunk of time. I'll admit I don't watch the Cards every day like you do, but he's on my fantasy team and he's been remarkably consistent all year long from my point of view.

JimEdmonds15
07-30-2006, 07:17 PM
Not that impressed.. Luna was my fav player besides Edmonds.. He got screwed over constantly by TLR playing the bum Miles nightly.. :: Sigh :: .. Not much of an upgrade but still an upgrade though..

MattyHo4Life
07-30-2006, 08:41 PM
Matty, 223 at-bats is a pretty good chunk of time. I'll admit I don't watch the Cards every day like you do, but he's on my fantasy team and he's been remarkably consistent all year long from my point of view.

I've liked Luna's potential for awhile now, but he hasn't progressed the way that I had hoped he would. This year the Cardinals needed him to step up and be the starting second baseman, and he hasn't been able to do that. Luna and Miles have been platooned at 2B out of necessetiy. Miles isn't a very good player, and this will put him on the bench which makes this an even better trade from the Cards perspective. I just don't know how Luna would do as a starting second baseman.

Phhhl
07-30-2006, 08:50 PM
Funny watching the Indians scramble to make a deal for a second baseman when they had Phillips locked up as it was. The off-field mechinations of this great game often rival what happens between the chalk.

Jpup
07-30-2006, 08:51 PM
Funny watching the Indians scramble to make a deal for a second baseman when they had Phillips locked up as it was. The off-field mechinations of this great game often rival what happens between the chalk.

kind of like the Reds needing an outfield bat.

IslandRed
07-30-2006, 09:16 PM
Luna hasn't proven that he can be an everyday player though. That is why he has been sharing 2B with Miles. If you play Luna everyday, his stats will probably look a lot different. Luna is an ok player half the time.

He's never been an everyday player, so of course he hasn't proven he can be one. By the same token, he hasn't proven he can't be. A .772 OPS isn't great but it's not bad for the position, and he doesn't have a strong platoon split. It just strikes me as one of those self-fulfilling prophecies so common in baseball.

Having said that, his career numbers (majors and minors) aren't that strong; that .772 might be as good as it gets.

Phhhl
07-30-2006, 09:22 PM
kind of like the Reds needing an outfield bat.

I couldn't agree more.

Tom Servo
07-30-2006, 09:29 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d4/Ronniebelliard.jpg= :pimp:


Too bad he went to the Cards :doh:

MattyHo4Life
07-30-2006, 09:35 PM
He's never been an everyday player, so of course he hasn't proven he can be one. By the same token, he hasn't proven he can't be. A .772 OPS isn't great but it's not bad for the position, and he doesn't have a strong platoon split. It just strikes me as one of those self-fulfilling prophecies so common in baseball.

Having said that, his career numbers (majors and minors) aren't that strong; that .772 might be as good as it gets.

He had the chance to be the everyday player this year, but didn't take advantage of it and take the job. He ended up platooning with Miles, and Miles isn't good. I do think he was hurt by being rushed to the Majors, but the Cards didn't really have a choice since he was a rule 5 pick from the Indians.

IslandRed
07-30-2006, 09:56 PM
He had the chance to be the everyday player this year, but didn't take advantage of it and take the job. He ended up platooning with Miles, and Miles isn't good. I do think he was hurt by being rushed to the Majors, but the Cards didn't really have a choice since he was a rule 5 pick from the Indians.

I know I'm probably going to end up looking silly debating Cardinals moves with a Cardinals fan, but... Miles had significantly more plate appearances in April and May than Luna. Not coincidentally, Miles outhit Luna in spring training. That suggests to me that the Cardinals weren't convinced Luna was ready to start and had a job-sharing arrangement ready to go unless he had a strong spring. Even now, Luna was still getting only about half the time despite outhitting Miles by 100 OPS points for the season. And then they trade him for a guy with about the same OPS this year... that's why I mentioned a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once a front office stamps a guy as "not an everyday player" it's hard to change their minds.

MattyHo4Life
07-30-2006, 11:47 PM
I know I'm probably going to end up looking silly debating Cardinals moves with a Cardinals fan, but... Miles had significantly more plate appearances in April and May than Luna. Not coincidentally, Miles outhit Luna in spring training. That suggests to me that the Cardinals weren't convinced Luna was ready to start and had a job-sharing arrangement ready to go unless he had a strong spring.

You are partially correct. The Cardinals weren't convinced that Luna was ready to start, or would ever be ready to start for the matter. Second Base was Spivey's to lose in Spring Training. Well, he lost it. Miles, not Luna had the best Spring Training, so he started the majority of the games as first. Miles never really in the picture until he "earned" it by having a good spring training.

My point is only that Luna would have been the Cardinals starting Second Baseman if he had earned it by outplaying Miles in ST and at the beginning of the year. Unlike a lot of Cardinals fans, I did like Luna, and I thought he would be a very good Second baseman. He may still be, but I'd hate to see him starting for the Cardinals right now though. His productivity would likely go even lower than it is now. We have been told for the last few years that Luna was the future at 2B, but I guess they finally gave up on him as an everyday player.

Fat_Strat
07-30-2006, 11:55 PM
I guess Cards fans are welcome here! Good to see.

I'm a moderator of a Cardinal forum http://www.gatewayredbirds.com

I wanted to see what you guys thought of the trade. I think a lot of Cards fans are split over it. Most see it as you do. An upgrade, though not very significant.

Personally, I think it will help us some this year, but hurt us more next year. Instead of putting 500k into Luna and plugging him into 2nd next year (at a +8, +10 VORP), we're going to have to waste $2-4 million that could have gone to LF or the starting rotation.

A 750 OPS rental might cost us a shot at 2 quality FA starters next year. Instead, look for us to resign Suppan and possibly Mulder.

Side note: We don't have any Reds fans on our board, and like this one, are very welcoming to intelligent conversation from rivals. Feel free to stop by sometime and weigh in on the race.

Reds are my second favorite team. I'm glad you're in the race, and hope we see each other in the NLCS. I'm ready for anyone other than Houston! :)

Spitball
07-31-2006, 12:20 AM
Jocketty has built a good team, but I think he tends to make lateral, or safe, moves. Sometimes they work out, like the Kile trade, but he isn't a river boat gambler. I'll take the Howsam/Krivsky's style.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 08:30 AM
in other news, the Indians sent down Ramon Vazquez earlier this week to call up Andy Marte, you know, the guy that they kept and DFAd Brandon Phillips. Now, they traded away their current 2nd baseman for nothing. Not exactly a series of moves Shapiro should put on his resume.

Belliard was a pending free agent that they had no intention of resigning. Still doesn't make it a great trade, but it gives a little bit of reasoning.

The Indians almost had to dump Phillips. He had an attitude problem there. He wasn't going to accept a utility role.

Again, I'm not praising either trade from the Indians point of view, but in both cases, Shapiro didn't have a whole lot of leverage. In general the guy is a good GM, although I'm not sure he's the type I'd want to be adding the final pieces for a playoff run. He's a great "Rebuilder" though.

MattyHo4Life
07-31-2006, 10:33 AM
The Cardinals are rumored to be working on a deal to get Shawn Green , and send Jason Marquis to the Mets for Aaron Heilman.

traderumor
07-31-2006, 11:07 AM
The Cardinals are rumored to be working on a deal to get Shawn Green , and send Jason Marquis to the Mets for Aaron Heilman.If Rodriguez is hurt that makes sense. But Green would not be an upgrade over either Encarnacion or Duncan. What makes me laugh about Marquis is listening to the media tout him as the NL's winningest pitcher. Yet, they don't realize how stupid that makes them sound. If they get Heilman for him, then Walt has done it again.

MattyHo4Life
07-31-2006, 11:26 AM
What makes me laugh about Marquis is listening to the media tout him as the NL's winningest pitcher. Yet, they don't realize how stupid that makes them sound. If they get Heilman for him, then Walt has done it again.


I agree with you completely!



From Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus:

"The Mets haven't made the most of Aaron Heilman. Once expected to be a rotation fixture, the pitcher has instead found a home in the bullpen. He could find a home closer to his midwest roots if the information I got from a Mets official pans out. I'm told that the Mets are discussing shipping Heilman to the Cardinals in return for free-agent-to-be Jason Marquis. The Mets would need to fill the bullpen slot, possibly reaching out for Roberto Hernandez or shifting Brian Bannister to the pen."

Fat_Strat
07-31-2006, 11:34 AM
Marquis for Heilman isn't really a Jocketty kind of move. He's pretty staunch on not trading pitching for the postseason. But, does Marquis really qualify as pitching?

... Anyway, I would love to see this deal go down. Might match the Lohse deal that Cincy just pulled off.

This has been active for both teams so far! I could see the Cards making 2 more moves.

westofyou
07-31-2006, 11:57 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5366


For all the attention paid to the Abreu deal, Iím not convinced it was the most interesting one made on Sunday. Itís been about 12 hours since it crossed by inbox, and I still canít make sense of the Cardinalsí decision to trade away Hector Luna for Ronnie Belliard. They got the older, more expensive player, which is par for the course iin late July, but I think they also got the lesser one.


Luna vs. Belliard, 2005 and 2006:

2005
AVG OBP SLG EqA BB SO SB CS FRAA (2B)
Luna .285 .344 .409 .272 9 25 10 2 0
Belliard .284 .325 .450 .276 35 72 2 2 +6

2006
AVG OBP SLG EqA BB SO SB CS FRAA (2B)
Luna .291 .355 .417 .267 21 34 5 3 -6

Belliard .289 .335 .419 .268 21 44 2 0 -3


Luna is 26, Belliard is 31. Luna is athletic and has a good bit of speed. Belliard has lost almost all of his speed, and his bodyÖface it, he looks like Lenny Harris.

Belliard has edges in virtually all counting stats the past two seasons because heís played more than Luna. The Cardinal was a utilityman last year and early this year before playing his way into a big share of the second-base job. When you look at their rate performance, you see that Lunaís basically matched him at-bat for at-bat, and Belliard has rated a small edge with the glove, according to Clay Davenportís system.

If the Cardinals are hoping to bat Belliard second, theyíre in for some problems. Heís a slow right-handed hitter who puts the ball on the ground and doesnít draw walks. (Belliardís good batting averages the past two seasons have served to hide the fact that heís just stopped walking: once every 17 PAs or so, about half his career rate entering 2005.) Thatís a recipe for double plays, not to mention the problems created by using three straight right-handed batters at the top of the lineup, four if Scott Rolen remains in the cleanup spot.

At the very least, the Cardinals have merely shuffled deck chairs, acquiring a veteran in exchange for a comparably-valued, less-experienced player. Itís likely that the difference between the two wonít even be a win over the last 60 games of the season. That wouldnít make it a good trade for the Cardsóthey lose out on Lunaís peak seasons at low costóbut it would mean they didnít actively hurt themselves. On the other hand, Luna is trending upward, while Belliard seems to be treading water or sliding back. Iíve been advocating for Luna most of this year, and I wonít stop now; heís going to outplay Belliard over the next two months, take hold of the second-base job in Cleveland and be one of the best 2Bs in the AL in 2007. If Jose Lopez and his .317 OBP can be an All-Star, Luna certainly can make next yearís team.

vaticanplum
07-31-2006, 12:04 PM
I guess Cards fans are welcome here! Good to see.

I'm a moderator of a Cardinal forum http://www.gatewayredbirds.com

I wanted to see what you guys thought of the trade. I think a lot of Cards fans are split over it. Most see it as you do. An upgrade, though not very significant.

Personally, I think it will help us some this year, but hurt us more next year. Instead of putting 500k into Luna and plugging him into 2nd next year (at a +8, +10 VORP), we're going to have to waste $2-4 million that could have gone to LF or the starting rotation.

A 750 OPS rental might cost us a shot at 2 quality FA starters next year. Instead, look for us to resign Suppan and possibly Mulder.

Side note: We don't have any Reds fans on our board, and like this one, are very welcoming to intelligent conversation from rivals. Feel free to stop by sometime and weigh in on the race.

Reds are my second favorite team. I'm glad you're in the race, and hope we see each other in the NLCS. I'm ready for anyone other than Houston! :)

That's a nice little site you have there. Thanks for coming over, in my experience our Cards fans here are the most polite and enjoyable of any team (though I do get a kick out of Astrobuddy).

I have no real feelings on the Belliard trade from a business standpoint, but I do think he will be a help to you this year. Really my entire reason for making this post is to point out my new Anthony Reyes avatar of which I am very proud. I can't stop staring at it. I mean I hope he pitches horribly but I will watch him in those socks any day of the week.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 12:14 PM
Well, on the espn homepage, Keith Law says this trade "doesn't help" the Cards. I can't read the article since I don't subscribe, but I imagine he's just doing a blind stats comparison and projecting Luna.

vic715
07-31-2006, 01:04 PM
I didn't quite understand the Luna,Belliard trade either but it seems that every move Jocketty and TLR make works out.Their record of success definitly speaks for itself.