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View Full Version : Don't trade our top prospects for marginal players!



Stingray
07-31-2006, 12:40 AM
I've been a Reds fan since 1939. My dad had a significant role(at CG&E) with the installation of lights at Crosley Field, although I was too young to remember it. I lived three houses away from Lonnie Frey although I don't think I ever met him. I'm 75 years old. If anyone on this board should be impatient to win, it should be me(how many years do I have left?).

However, as a small market team, we'll never have sustained winning by trading our top prospects for older marginal players to maybe get to the first or 2nd round of the playoffs. We need to develop our own players keep them at least through their early arb years. Sign the real difference makers(Dunn, Harang, for example) to long term contracts. Get prospects or draft choices for those who become too expensive or are playing above our evaluation of their potential. This approach requires top scouting(pay for the best) and the ability to stick to a plan. This is the only way we'll be more than an occasional splash in the pan.

Don't sacrifice our future for a Zito or Willis-sp?(to many $$$ for us to keep long term and too expensive in young talent for a rental) or a Redman(not worth much young talent for a marginal upgrade).

Don't trade any of our top ten prospects - please. I'm still young enough to wait a few more years for a WS win(most of the posters here have 40 or 50 years).

TOBTTReds
07-31-2006, 12:45 AM
I've been a Reds fan since 1939. My dad had a significant role(at CG&E) with the installation of lights at Crosley Field, although I was too young to remember it. I lived three houses away from Lonnie Frey although I don't think I ever met him. I'm 75 years old. If anyone on this board should be impatient to win, it should be me(how many years do I have left?).

However, as a small market team, we'll never have sustained winning by trading our top prospects for older marginal players to maybe get to the first or 2nd round of the playoffs. We need to develop our own players keep them at least through their early arb years. Sign the real difference makers(Dunn, Harang, for example) to long term contracts. Get prospects or draft choices for those who become too expensive or are playing above our evaluation of their potential. This approach requires top scouting(pay for the best) and the ability to stick to a plan. This is the only way we'll be more than an occasional splash in the pan.

Don't sacrifice our future for a Zito or Willis-sp?(to many $$$ for us to keep long term and too expensive in young talent for a rental) or a Redman(not worth much young talent for a marginal upgrade).

Don't trade any of our top ten prospects - please. I'm still young enough to wait a few more years for a WS win(most of the posters here have 40 or 50 years).

Great post, and I agree. So you don't like the scrappy vets?

FYI - Can't trade for draft picks...but everything else you said is great.

Stingray
07-31-2006, 12:51 AM
If you offer arb and lose a player you can be awarded picks.

Stingray
07-31-2006, 01:16 AM
[QUOTE=AvesIce51] So you don't like the scrappy vets?

Not in place of equally good(or better) young players.

I'd play:


Hat/Aur platoon -1B, Freel 2B, Phillips - SS, EE - 3B, Dunn - LF, Deno - CF, Jr - RF, Hot hand - C every day except for occasional rests for these regulars. Best to win now AND for the future.

Ron Madden
07-31-2006, 01:20 AM
[QUOTE=AvesIce51] So you don't like the scrappy vets?

Not in place of equally good(or better) young players.

I'd play:


Hat/Aur platoon -1B, Freel 2B, Phillips - SS, EE - 3B, Dunn - LF, Deno - CF, Jr - RF, Hot hand - C every day except for occasional rests for these regulars. Best to win now AND for the future.


Good Stuff. :thumbup:

Cyclone792
07-31-2006, 01:25 AM
Good stuff, Stingray, and I really do believe the team can easily be improved internally simply by utilizing the players we already have on our roster in a better fashion, just like you state.

Your lineup above is an excellent start as it gets better defense at both SS and CF while also getting EE in the lineup and Clayton out of the lineup, and I believe the run value difference in your lineup would easily trump what Narron's been sending out there every day.

Spitball
07-31-2006, 01:39 AM
If you have the chance to contend, you have to gamble. B.J.Ryan is a good example of a good gamble. The Reds traded Ryan and Jacobo Sequea to the Orioles for Juan Guzman in 1999. Guzman helped the Reds to a Wild Card tie with the Mets. It was great fun even if the Reds didn't make the real playoffs. B.J.Ryan made the All-Star game this year, but he wasn't with the Orioles. He had really only one really good season with the Orioles before he left. I'd much rather have had Guzman's contrbutions that lead to a tie breaker than Ryan's one good season with the Orioles.

Success is measured in winning seasons, not crops of promising promises.

Redus
07-31-2006, 01:51 AM
They better not give anything worthwile for Redman. He's no better than Claussen/Germano.

rcb126
07-31-2006, 03:13 AM
If you have the chance to contend, you have to gamble. B.J.Ryan is a good example of a good gamble. The Reds traded Ryan and Jacobo Sequea to the Orioles for Juan Guzman in 1999. Guzman helped the Reds to a Wild Card tie with the Mets. It was great fun even if the Reds didn't make the real playoffs. B.J.Ryan made the All-Star game this year, but he wasn't with the Orioles. He had really only one really good season with the Orioles before he left. I'd much rather have had Guzman's contrbutions that lead to a tie breaker than Ryan's one good season with the Orioles.

Success is measured in winning seasons, not crops of promising promises.

But imagine if the Reds had Ryan now......"the trade" might not have ever been necessary. Sometimes it pays to be patient unless you are SURE you can win it all.

Tornon
07-31-2006, 03:26 AM
They better not give anything worthwile for Redman. He's no better than Claussen/Germano.

Don't forget.. he's a scrappy vet that knows how to play the game

Ravenlord
07-31-2006, 03:45 AM
Don't forget.. he's a scrappy vet that knows how to play the game
and an All-Star.

Redus
07-31-2006, 04:15 AM
Don't forget.. he's a scrappy vet that knows how to play the game
I think you meant a crappy vet :thumbup:

KronoRed
07-31-2006, 05:18 AM
and an All-Star.
So was Turnbow

Redus
07-31-2006, 05:28 AM
and an All-Star.
Yes he was. He reminds me of the glorius All Stars Jack Armstrong and Atlee Hammaker :evil:

UKFlounder
07-31-2006, 07:04 AM
But imagine if the Reds had Ryan now......"the trade" might not have ever been necessary. Sometimes it pays to be patient unless you are SURE you can win it all.

But 7 years of patience? And even if Ryan developed with the Reds as he did with Baltimore, what are the chances the Reds would have given him the big $$$ last offseason?

So if he did become an All-Star, but left as a free agent, this year's bullpen still may not have been that much better.

Of course, if we had known in 99 that we would lose the tie-breaker then maybe the deal was a bad one, but without the benefit of hindsight, it was, IMO, a good deal, and, even with hindsight, I'm not sure that keeping Ryan would have had any impact on this season anyway

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 09:08 AM
Don't trade any of our top ten prospects - please. I'm still young enough to wait a few more years for a WS win(most of the posters here have 40 or 50 years).

I can see the argument for not wanting to trade Bruce, Edwin E, or Homer under any circumstances, but I think any other minor leaguer/prospect is fair game. Maybe I'm missing a couple, but I don't think we have 10 legitimate prospects in the system right now, thanks to Bowden and O'Brien.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 09:13 AM
But imagine if the Reds had Ryan now......"the trade" might not have ever been necessary. Sometimes it pays to be patient unless you are SURE you can win it all.

But if the Reds had brought up Ryan at the same time the O's did (reasonable assumption), he would've been a free agent last year, and I doubt we would've shelled out the cash to keep him.

That's the thing with prospects. They are really only cheap for the first 3 years, and then under control for 3 more. Some people were even rumbling that Kearns and Lopez were going to be too expensive next year. I disagree, but the point is that at one time Kearns and Lopez were viewed as young cornerstones of the team. However, after 4 years of service time, they're viewed as too pricey.

Everything in baseball is under a much shorter timespan now. Sadly, it's not like the old days where you could draft a guy and get his production for 15 years. IMO, that lessens the value of prospects, although they are still important.

Steve4192
07-31-2006, 09:21 AM
Don't trade any of our top ten prospects - please
Here is the problem with that line of thinking ... many of our top 10 prospects won't even pan out to be maginal major leaguers.

That's just the way prospects work. Most of 'em never pan out. The trick is keeping the ones who will pan out and trading the who won't for actual major league contributors.

Stingray
07-31-2006, 10:41 AM
Here is the problem with that line of thinking ... many of our top 10 prospects won't even pan out to be maginal major leaguers.

That's just the way prospects work. Most of 'em never pan out. The trick is keeping the ones who will pan out and trading the who won't for actual major league contributors.

That's where scouting comes in. Don't trade anyone you rate in your top ten. And sure many of them won't make it but the ones that do will become a valuable asset. Whereas the vet(Guzman) will be long gone.

Sure, the one game playoff was fun, but it was nothing compared to the 70's or even 1990. Our goal should be the WS - not to squeeze into an early playoff loss.

We're finally recovering from Marge's idioticy and beginning to develop a strong farm system don't blow all now.

BTW, I'm not saying you don't trade a top prospect if it gives you a legimate chance to win a WS, but none of the deals we're talking about would do that. Just like the Guzman deal didn't.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 12:37 PM
That's Sure, the one game playoff was fun, but it was nothing compared to the 70's or even 1990. Our goal should be the WS - not to squeeze into an early playoff loss.
.

You've got to make the playoff though in order to win it all.

No team wins the world series entirely through the draft either. I'm trying to think of the last world series winner that didn't make a trade in July. I can't remember one, although it may have happened a few times.

Stingray
07-31-2006, 01:16 PM
A top ten Reds minor leaguer for an expensive marginal upgrade rental(We're not going to pay KL $3.5M+ next year).

dougdirt
07-31-2006, 02:52 PM
but I don't think we have 10 legitimate prospects in the system right now, thanks to Bowden and O'Brien.
Not sure how you can say that.
Bailey, Bruce, Wood, Ward (until an hour and a half ago) were all Obrien guys, not to mention he brought in Javon Moran and Elizardo Ramirez for a horrible Cory Lidle.
Bowden was responsible for Joey Votto who is our #3 prospect currently and well thats about where his ship ends as far as our system currently. To say that he is responsible for our system not being so good, ok fine. But to lay it on Dano is a bad choice. Dano knew what he was doing with the minor league system.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 03:16 PM
We're finally recovering from Marge's idioticy and beginning to develop a strong farm system don't blow all now.
.

To be honest, Wayne has already traded a good chunk of future for now.

He might as well go all out and trade Homer for Schmidt at this point, or another huge move for a SP.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 03:18 PM
Not sure how you can say that.
Bailey, Bruce, Wood, Ward (until an hour and a half ago) were all Obrien guys, not to mention he brought in Javon Moran and Elizardo Ramirez for a horrible Cory Lidle.
.

The point is that compared to other teams, we have a pretty weak system, although I agree with you it has moved up from being completely barren. Still, there's not likely to be any help any time soon. Maybe Homer helps us in 2008, but I don't see anyone else being ready until then.

dougdirt
07-31-2006, 03:25 PM
Redread, comparatively speaking yes, but Dano did have the minor leagues going in the right direction with his 2005 draft, and while the 2004 draft after round 1 has looked pretty bad, round 1 so far, is all you need to work out from that draft. Although I think Votto can help out before 2008 and honestly, I think Phil Dumatrait could as well, not as a starter, but as a bullpen guy.