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View Full Version : Germano traded for Cormier



Reds Fanatic
07-31-2006, 09:39 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5832710


Cormier, 39, becomes the fourth reliever added by Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky in recent weeks, joining right-hander Gary Majewski and lefties Bill Bray and Eddie Guardado.
Cormier was 2-2 with a 1.59 ERA in 34 innings for the Phillies this season. He has been more effective against right-handed hittters, who are batting .197 against him, than left-handers, who are batting .259.

As a player with 10 years of major-league service, five consecutively with the same team, Cormier had the right to block any trade.

Germano, 23, made two appearances for the Reds this season, including a start Saturday in which he pitched 52/3 innings against the Brewers. He was 8-6 with a 3.69 ERA for Class AAA Louisville, the Reds' top affiliate.

kaldaniels
07-31-2006, 09:41 AM
Joe Randa for Eddie Guardado and Cormier....I'll take it.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2006, 09:44 AM
Solid trade I guess, but I hope this isn't Wayne's last move. Starting pitching is the biggest need right now for this team. One more solid starter would probably win the Wildcard.

smith288
07-31-2006, 09:44 AM
Meh... THe bullpen has aged 10 yrs before my eyes it feels

flyer85
07-31-2006, 09:44 AM
What a deal.

Can he play SS?

osuceltic
07-31-2006, 09:47 AM
Meh... THe bullpen has aged 10 yrs before my eyes it feels
It's aging like fine wine, then. Who cares how old they are? I want guys who get the job done. Were you happier three weeks ago?

SteelSD
07-31-2006, 09:50 AM
That would suggest Mercker may not be coming back from his DL stint.

registerthis
07-31-2006, 09:52 AM
Good trade, I like it.

Cormier's not a big K guy, but his ERA and WHIP are very good, and he is a primarily groundball pitcher who keeps the ball in the yard (2 HR in 34 IP).

Now, if we could only get Narron to actually start *using* his pen.

cumberlandreds
07-31-2006, 09:53 AM
Suffice it to say that Germano's start was a showcase for this. Upgraded the BP a little more. Still need that starter. But I doubt we get it.

lollipopcurve
07-31-2006, 09:55 AM
That would suggest Mercker may not be coming back from his DL stint.

And some insurance/depth in case Guardado continues to have soreness, probably.

flyer85
07-31-2006, 09:55 AM
That would suggest Mercker may not be coming back from his DL stint.My first thought.

Cormier has a BABIP of 23% and a strand rate of 89%.

I wonder if WK knows the difference between luck and skill. Cormiers xERA is 4.02

Cormier is an excellent bet to implode over the last months of the season. 13Ks in 34IP is incredibly low.

edabbs44
07-31-2006, 09:59 AM
Like it...that's the kind of deal they needed b/f giving up AK and FeLo.

wheels
07-31-2006, 09:59 AM
Well....That certainly was anti-climactic.

Reds Fanatic
07-31-2006, 10:01 AM
Overall the numbers for Cormier are very good this year. He has slipped since the all star break. Since the break he has an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 2.0. So hopefully that is just a few bad appearances and not a sign of things to come.

smith288
07-31-2006, 10:01 AM
It's aging like fine wine, then. Who cares how old they are? I want guys who get the job done. Were you happier three weeks ago?
No however it seems like we are picking up fodder. On the surface, Rheal's numbers look nice until you peel away the first layer and see a guy who cant miss bats, walks some and apparently has extreme luck behind him defensively. Not a great combo and doesnt address the SP that is more dire than the BP (did I say that?)

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 10:02 AM
That would suggest Mercker may not be coming back from his DL stint.


Mercker talked about how if it wasn't a tight race, he just take a bunch of advill and keep pitching. He also talked about retiring and mentioned the Reds asked him to do a rehab stint.

After reading that article, I kind of assumed he was finished. Not that I'm some kind of mind reader, but IMO Mercker's comments are a lot more telling than Doc Hollywood's standard "day to day" template for his so called "medical reports" that never tell us anything.

NC Reds
07-31-2006, 10:03 AM
I can live with this. Mercker's injury may end his season I guess. Germano probably projects as no better than a fifth starter (though the Reds could definitely use upgrades with the fourth and fifth starters). I would have been interested to see Germano get another start.

I still can't get over the Kearns/FeLo trade. Seeing Clayton and Castro getting important at bats gives me nausea. I miss the Ear too. :thumbdown

flyer85
07-31-2006, 10:03 AM
Overall the numbers for Cormier are very good this year. The numbers are good due to luck, the skill set isn't there. He is due for a normalization a lot more than Majewski was, I guess Wayne didn't learn his lesson on that one.

BRM
07-31-2006, 10:04 AM
My first thought.

Cormier has a BABIP of 23% and a strand rate of 89%.

I wonder if WK knows the difference between luck and skill. Cormiers xERA is 4.02

Cormier is an excellent bet to implode over the last months of the season. 13Ks in 34IP is incredibly low.

The BABIP correction could be ugly.

edabbs44
07-31-2006, 10:04 AM
On a related topic, what's Cincinnati's average age now? Remember when they were young? :D

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 10:05 AM
My first thought.

Cormier has a BABIP of 23% and a strand rate of 89%.

I wonder if WK knows the difference between luck and skill. Cormiers xERA is 4.02

Cormier is an excellent bet to implode over the last months of the season. 13Ks in 34IP is incredibly low.

I respect your opinion, but I don't understand why people get upset if we pick up a pitcher that has had a low BABIP. The assumption that every pitcher will normalize to the same BABIP is flawed, IMO. As your last statement says, it implies that only relievers with high K and low BB rates will be successful, which is not the case.

Kc61
07-31-2006, 10:05 AM
Another veteran reliever, having a good year, to help the pen this year. In exchange for a AAA starter who doesn't seem to have a big upside. Makes perfect sense, good move.

But have to hope there is more if this team is going to really go for the playoffs.

PuffyPig
07-31-2006, 10:06 AM
It's funny how lots don't mind crapping on Cormier because he has been lucky this year (and he has), but also don't mind crapping on Majewski this year who has been incredibly unlucky since he joined the Reds. Last I looked, Majewski had an ERA (DIPS) of just over 1.00 with us.

registerthis
07-31-2006, 10:07 AM
The numbers are good due to luck, the skill set isn't there. He is due for a normalization a lot more than Majewski was, I guess Wayne didn't learn his lesson on that one.

He does keep the ball in the park though, and always has. That ha snothing to do with being BABIP lucky.. The low K rate is somewhat of a concern, but if he can continue to induce ground balls and keep the balls from landing in the moon deck, that's OK by me.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2006, 10:09 AM
What can Cormier give the Reds out of the bullpen that Germano couldn't give them if he was moved to the bullpen?

Puffy
07-31-2006, 10:09 AM
Well, if this means that Narron won't ride Harang and Arroyo so hard down the stretch then its a real good trade.

If it doesn't then its ahhhhhhhh, no biggie either way. Certainly not sad that Germano is gone. I didn't see his ceiling being all that high.

smith288
07-31-2006, 10:10 AM
It's funny how lots don't mind crapping on Cormier because he has been lucky this year (and he has), but also don't mind crapping on Majewski this year who has been incredibly unlucky since he joined the Reds. Last I looked, Majewski had an ERA (DIPS) of just over 1.00 with us.
I have felt that way about Majewski since he got here...the guy cant seem to buy a break in getting "blooped" to death.

Puffy
07-31-2006, 10:10 AM
What can Cormier give the Reds out of the bullpen that Germano couldn't give them if he was moved to the bullpen?

One word. Veteranness.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2006, 10:11 AM
Good move.

Of course, more proof that relief pitching can come cheap. Hmmm.

smith288
07-31-2006, 10:12 AM
I dont like this trade... His name is too "frenchy" sounding!

flyer85
07-31-2006, 10:12 AM
As your last statement says, it implies that only relievers with high K and low BB rates will be successful, which is not the case.they are the ones that will be the most consistent and successful irrespective of any luck that comes into play.

A lot of people warned about Majewski before he showed up what was likely to happen. Guess what, he got to Cincy and his BABIP normalized and now everyone thinks he is awful when he is just the same pitcher he has always been.

If Cormier's BABIP and Strand% normalize(which is the most probable outcome) we have just acquired a pitcher who will be of little value because every time a pitcher allows a ball in play the dice are being rolled. I would say that Cormier's string of snake eyes are due to come to an end.

westofyou
07-31-2006, 10:12 AM
Good move.

Of course, more proof that relief pitching can come cheap. Hmmm.
You mean 39 year old relief pitching. Hmmm

flyer85
07-31-2006, 10:13 AM
I have felt that way about Majewski since he got here...the guy cant seem to buy a break in getting "blooped" to death.Probability of regression to the mean can be a pain in the rear end.

westofyou
07-31-2006, 10:13 AM
I dont like this trade... His name is too "frenchy" sounding!
He was one of the guys that Montreal wanted years ago to get some of those hockey fans into the park.

smith288
07-31-2006, 10:15 AM
He was one of the guys that Montreal wanted years ago to get some of those hockey fans into the park.
Well, we have the French fan base...all 2 of them and that is his wife and some guy name Jaque who only likes baseball because the baserunners run away from the ball :D

traderumor
07-31-2006, 10:19 AM
What can Cormier give the Reds out of the bullpen that Germano couldn't give them if he was moved to the bullpen?
Throwing with his left hand?

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2006, 10:19 AM
You mean 39 year old relief pitching. Hmmm

As opposed to 23 and 26-year old relief pitching that should come at such a cost.

Guardado (35) has been our most effective reliever to date, and he was acquired for practically nothing.

And as far as age goes, I thought Wayne was making moves for this year. If that's the case, what do I care how old they are? Guardado and Cormier are more or as effective than Majewski and Bray they were had for a fraction of the cost.

IslandRed
07-31-2006, 10:20 AM
Regarding the BABIP normalization:

1. Yes, BABIP will tend to normalize over time.

2. That doesn't mean it necessarily normalizes within the course of a season. Guys have way-low or way-high BABIPs for a season all the time.

Like flipping a coin, the odds of heads/tails are 50/50. Even if there have been six straight "heads," that doesn't mean the next flip is more likely to be "tails." You'd assume that over time, it will even it up, but if you only have a few more flips, you wouldn't bet the farm on a run of "tails."

His hit-lucky 2006 is certainly worth considering for his prospective employment in 2007, but that's not the issue at hand.

westofyou
07-31-2006, 10:20 AM
Throwing with his left hand?
Knowing some of the players in the league?

westofyou
07-31-2006, 10:21 AM
Guardado and Cormier are more effective than Majewski and Bray they were had for a fraction of the cost.
2.70 for Bray so far, can he wash your car to get on your good side?

traderumor
07-31-2006, 10:21 AM
they are the ones that will be the most consistent and successful irrespective of any luck that comes into play.

A lot of people warned about Majewski before he showed up what was likely to happen. Guess what, he got to Cincy and his BABIP normalized and now everyone thinks he is awful when he is just the same pitcher he has always been.

If Cormier's BABIP and Strand% normalize(which is the most probable outcome) we have just acquired a pitcher who will be of little value because every time a pitcher allows a ball in play the dice are being rolled. I would say that Cormier's string of snake eyes are due to come to an end.I too appreciate BABIP. In this case, you are using a very small sample size to make a conclusion that Majewski is "normalizing" and then taking a leap that the same will happen to Cormier. I do not think that is a very good application of a statistical effect.

Krusty
07-31-2006, 10:21 AM
I expect a couple of more moves by Krivsky today. As for Cormier....good deal. He is an upgrade over Mercker and Shackelford and gives the Reds three lefties in the pen. Plus he is a veteran that can handle the pressure of pitching when the game is on the line.

I'm hearing the rumor that the Reds are interested in RHP Jason Schimdt. I have no link but just conversing with others on the net.

Far East
07-31-2006, 10:22 AM
The future is now, and I think Cormier helps the Reds win more games this year, but I loved Germano's last outing.

Anybody who can command a sometimes tight, hard curve and a sometimes slower looping one and paint the bottom of the zone with sinkers is going to be an innings eater for many years.

I agree with Narron that Justin certainly did not look like a rookie out there. Sorry he's gone.

flyer85
07-31-2006, 10:23 AM
Regarding the BABIP normalization:

1. Yes, BABIP will tend to normalize over time.

2. That doesn't mean it necessarily normalizes within the course of a season. Guys have way-low or way-high BABIPs for a season all the time.

while #2 is true, the issue is the probability is that it will normalize within the season. Especially with the combination of it with the strand rate of 89%(average is ~70).

Could Cormier continue to be "lucky" for the remainder of the season? Yes he could, the question is do you want to bet on that.

Ltlabner
07-31-2006, 10:23 AM
I too appreciate BABIP. In this case, you are using a very small sample size to make a conclusion that Majewski is "normalizing" and then taking a leap that the same will happen to Cormier. I do not think that is a very good application of a statistical effect.

Very, very well said.

Krusty
07-31-2006, 10:24 AM
Let's remember that Germano was a Dan O'Brien acquistion. And we all have seen how much Krivsky loves O'Brien's acquistions.

registerthis
07-31-2006, 10:24 AM
I'm hearing the rumor that the Reds are interested in RHP Jason Schimdt. I have no link but just conversing with others on the net.

With the Giants in the playoff hunt?

No way.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2006, 10:24 AM
Throwing with his left hand?

The standard lefty-lefty matchup is probably how Narron will use him.

Unfortunately, lefties are hitting Cormier much better than righties this season.

And don't the Reds already have 3 lefties in the pen plus a lefty closer (Mercker, Bray, Shackelford, Guardado)?

Puffy
07-31-2006, 10:27 AM
I'm hearing the rumor that the Reds are interested in RHP Jason Schimdt. I have no link but just conversing with others on the net.

Too bad the Reds already blew their load of chips for Majic and Bray. Well, chips not named Bailey or Bruce.

In short, the Reds don't have the prospects to outbid anyone for Schmidt.

traderumor
07-31-2006, 10:27 AM
The Germano and Chick trades seem to indicate that Krivsky has came to similar conclusions about certain prospects that have been arrived at on this board. Germano is little more than a back of the rotation guy and may even top out at middle relief, if he even makes it for more than cups of coffee. Chick is working on being one of the most traded minor leaguers in the shortest amount of time in history and showed no consistency in his stay here to go with a few, very few, flashes. Just the types of guys that are very expendable at this time of year.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2006, 10:28 AM
Regarding the BABIP normalization:

1. Yes, BABIP will tend to normalize over time.

2. That doesn't mean it necessarily normalizes within the course of a season. Guys have way-low or way-high BABIPs for a season all the time.

Like flipping a coin, the odds of heads/tails are 50/50. Even if there have been six straight "heads," that doesn't mean the next flip is more likely to be "tails." You'd assume that over time, it will even it up, but if you only have a few more flips, you wouldn't bet the farm on a run of "tails."

His hit-lucky 2006 is certainly worth considering for his prospective employment in 2007, but that's not the issue at hand.

I agree with this. It's more concerning when you take a young relief pitcher with a low BABIP and expect him to be here years down the road, maintaining that low BABIP.

Cormier, I would assume is just around for this year, so I'm not concerned about long-term BABIP regression.

TheBigLebowski
07-31-2006, 10:30 AM
Nice move, but I hope this is not the only trade we see today.

We need a 5th starter. Considering we just dealt Germano, another move has to be in the offing.

smith288
07-31-2006, 10:30 AM
Too bad the Reds already blew their load of chips for Majic and Bray. Well, chips not named Bailey or Bruce.

In short, the Reds don't have the prospects to outbid anyone for Schmidt.
Naw...this is the mutha load chip right here.

http://www.chieftain.com/archive/2006/jul/16/sptCSB106ROCKIESREDSBASEBAL.jpg

traderumor
07-31-2006, 10:30 AM
The standard lefty-lefty matchup is probably how Narron will use him.

Unfortunately, lefties are hitting Cormier much better than righties this season.

And don't the Reds already have 3 lefties in the pen plus a lefty closer (Mercker, Bray, Shackelford, Guardado)?Like someone already noted, Mercker is already gone. Bray is a lefty reliever. Also, I wasn't assigning any value to Cormier's left-handedness, but that is a significant difference in comparison to Germano, regardless of if he is planned for LOOGY duty or to face several batters (I'm guessing the latter).

registerthis
07-31-2006, 10:30 AM
Cormier, I would assume is just around for this year, so I'm not concerned about long-term BABIP regression.

As per Mark's blog, Cormier was signed to an extension through 2007 with a club option for 2008.

Looks like we get to find out how lucky Cormier has been.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2006, 10:31 AM
2.70 for Bray so far, can he wash your car to get on your good side?

And I edited my post right after I posted it to include "as" effective because of Bray.


I don't mind Bray, just think Majewski came at a hefty price, compared to what we are seeing with the Guardado's, Wickman's, and Cormier's.

flyer85
07-31-2006, 10:31 AM
With the Giants in the playoff hunt?

No way.Carroll said the Giants have been shopping him. After going 0 for the week and getting swept by the Pirates maybe they have decided to pull the plug.

Krusty
07-31-2006, 10:32 AM
Nice move, but I hope this is not the only trade we see today.

We need a 5th starter. Considering we just dealt Germano, another move has to be in the offing.

Patience grasshopper. This will be an interesting day.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2006, 10:32 AM
As per Mark's blog, Cormier was signed to an extension through 2007 with a club option for 2008.

Looks like we get to find out how lucky Cormier has been.

Hilarious. What he due for 2007?

Maybe my feelings have now changed regarding this move.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2006, 10:34 AM
The Germano and Chick trades seem to indicate that Krivsky has came to similar conclusions about certain prospects that have been arrived at on this board. Germano is little more than a back of the rotation guy and may even top out at middle relief, if he even makes it for more than cups of coffee. Chick is working on being one of the most traded minor leaguers in the shortest amount of time in history and showed no consistency in his stay here to go with a few, very few, flashes. Just the types of guys that are very expendable at this time of year.

This is what's baffling to me. The Reds have guys like Germano in the minors who have decent stuff but don't project to be great starters. The Reds also have a desperate need for young bullpen help, which is allegedly at a premium these days. But instead of taking those decent minor leaguers and converting them to relievers, Krivsky trades them for aging vets.

Seems like if the market price is so high for good, young relievers, Krivsky would try developing some of his own.

BRM
07-31-2006, 10:36 AM
But instead of taking those decent minor leaguers and converting them to relievers, Krivsky trades them for aging vets.


Maybe he views the aging veterans as a better bet for success in a playoff run.

Reds4Life
07-31-2006, 10:36 AM
Reds have scheduled a 4:30pm press conference, not sure they'd do that for a 39 year old relief pitcher. It's possible, since they signed him to an extension, but I don't really know.

Perhaps something bigger is going to happen today.

Reds Fanatic
07-31-2006, 10:37 AM
According to Marc's blog Brandon Watson was sent back to Louisville to make room for Cormier.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2006, 10:37 AM
Maybe he views the aging veterans as a better bet for success in a playoff run.

Clearly he does.

registerthis
07-31-2006, 10:40 AM
Seems like if the market price is so high for good, young relievers, Krivsky would try developing some of his own.

"Win now" is apparently the mantra.

smith288
07-31-2006, 10:43 AM
http://www.amti.biz/PDFDownloads/Walker%20file/walker%20model%20info/Guardian%207749.jpg

New tool to help the Reds pitchers from the bullpen to the mound


i kid i kid

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2006, 10:45 AM
"Win now" is apparently the mantra.

If that is the case, then deal for a Schmidt or Dontrelle.

If you are going to do it, do it.

deltachi8
07-31-2006, 10:50 AM
Perhaps something bigger is going to happen today.

If by "bigger" you mean dumber....well you get the point.

I didnt mind the first trade of the day though.

traderumor
07-31-2006, 10:50 AM
http://www.amti.biz/PDFDownloads/Walker%20file/walker%20model%20info/Guardian%207749.jpg

New tool to help the Reds pitchers from the bullpen to the mound


i kid i kidThat's pretty good. What about having Coffey carry them on his back instead of running in for his own appearances? Or maybe revive the golf carts with the baseball caps on them of the 70s?

registerthis
07-31-2006, 10:52 AM
If that is the case, then deal for a Schmidt or Dontrelle.

If you are going to do it, do it.

I don't disagree.

But if people are wondering why Wayne is trading for prospects to develop in our farm system, I think this is the answer.

cumberlandreds
07-31-2006, 11:27 AM
Teams used to have golf carts to bring pitches in from the bullpen. The Reds need wheelchairs for their's.;)

M2
07-31-2006, 11:41 AM
I like this trade a lot. Cormier should be a solid addition to the pen and I didn't expect Germano to be of much help to the major league club ever.

Cedric
07-31-2006, 11:42 AM
I like this trade a lot. Cormier should be a solid addition to the pen and I didn't expect Germano to be of much help to the major league club ever.

I agree totally.

Germano has nothing in this arm, you can't expect guys like that to continously get major league hitters out.

Cormier isn't just having a great year for this one year, his career numbers are pretty nice.

reds44
07-31-2006, 11:43 AM
Solid trade.

Can't have enough (solid) bullpen arms.

VR
07-31-2006, 11:43 AM
My people are telling me he's the Rheal dheal.

:help:

edabbs44
07-31-2006, 11:48 AM
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but from CBSsportsline.com

The Reds added left-hander Rheal Cormier to their bullpen Monday, sending 23-year-old right-hander Justin Germano to Philadelphia. The Reds said Cormier had agreed to a one-year contract extension through 2007, with a club option for 2008.

2008? Hopefully he'll be back from hip replacement surgery by then. jk.

Blimpie
07-31-2006, 11:52 AM
Let's remember that Germano was a Dan O'Brien acquistion. And we all have seen how much Krivsky loves O'Brien's acquistions.Yep. The last four months have reminded me of the De-Stalinization period witnessed in the Soviet Union after WWII.

Although no Dan OBrien statues have fallen nor any capital cities been renamed...it is EXACTLY the same.

redsfan30
07-31-2006, 11:53 AM
I'm definetly cool with this deal.

traderumor
07-31-2006, 11:56 AM
I like this trade a lot. Cormier should be a solid addition to the pen and I didn't expect Germano to be of much help to the major league club ever.Too bad we couldn't have squeezed Myers out of them :evil:

CTA513
07-31-2006, 12:02 PM
The standard lefty-lefty matchup is probably how Narron will use him.

Unfortunately, lefties are hitting Cormier much better than righties this season.

And don't the Reds already have 3 lefties in the pen plus a lefty closer (Mercker, Bray, Shackelford, Guardado)?


Cormier vs. Left: .259
Cormier vs. Right: .197

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2006, 12:08 PM
Cormier vs. Left: .259
Cormier vs. Right: .197

His OPS splits are even more pronounced:

vs. Left .748
vs. Right .554

M2
07-31-2006, 12:09 PM
Best part of this deal is that Cormier's an experienced lumberjack.

http://www.current.org/prog/prog0523lumberjacks.jpg

M2
07-31-2006, 12:10 PM
His OPS splits are even more pronounced:

vs. Left .748
vs. Right .554

It's what makes him a middle reliever instead of a LOOGY.

Chip R
07-31-2006, 12:17 PM
Yep. The last four months have reminded me of the De-Stalinization period witnessed in the Soviet Union after WWII.


Some of these guys were in Little League then.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2006, 12:19 PM
I like this trade a lot. Cormier should be a solid addition to the pen and I didn't expect Germano to be of much help to the major league club ever.

Me too. This one gets a gold star. Getting to watch him with some frequency, the guy's got that je ne sais quoi, too. He's a battler.

Unassisted
07-31-2006, 12:21 PM
Best part of this deal is that Cormier's an experienced lumberjack.

http://www.current.org/prog/prog0523lumberjacks.jpg
So he'll only be available to pitch night games, since he sleeps all day? ;)

CougarQuest
07-31-2006, 12:25 PM
So he'll only be available to pitch night games, since he sleeps all day? ;)
I'm a lil concerned about the hi-heels and stockings:laugh:

M2
07-31-2006, 12:30 PM
So he'll only be available to pitch night games, since he sleeps all day? ;)

You've got that backwards. He sleeps all night and he works all day.

Can't wait till his papa comes to the park.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 12:36 PM
they are the ones that will be the most consistent and successful irrespective of any luck that comes into play.
.

Sure, a guy like Rob Dibble that can blow people away with K's is going to be more consistent. But unfortuantely most of those relievers are closers making the big bucks or are pretty much untouchable.

Every successful staff has some guys that don't K a whole lot of people, yet somehow find a way to be successful. I doubt it's luck.. The whole notion that anything that can't be explained by statistical analysis is "luck" is silly.
It's gotten to the point where some people take BABIP as gospel, when it's just a theory that isn't supported very well.

My concern with Maj was that he was worked hard and had tendonitis this spring. Also, he is a young guy putting himself under a lot of pressure to perform. I think he'll rebound and not be horrible, but he's not the dominant setup guy that Wayne told us he was. And yes, we overpaid, but IMO, it wasn't because of his BABIP.

LoganBuck
07-31-2006, 01:03 PM
2.25 Million for 07 according to Jayson Stark.

DoogMinAmo
07-31-2006, 01:13 PM
2.25 Million for 07 according to Jayson Stark.

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

registerthis
07-31-2006, 01:17 PM
Me too. This one gets a gold star. Getting to watch him with some frequency, the guy's got that je ne sais quoi, too. He's a battler.

I agree--good move. Certainly can't hurt.

MWM
07-31-2006, 01:23 PM
I like it, too. It's hard to not like a trade where what you part with is not liekly to ever do much in the majors.

Reds Fanatic
07-31-2006, 01:38 PM
Here's a quote from Cormier about coming to the Reds:


"It's a great opportunity for me to pitch for a team that is in the hunt for the postseason," Cormier said. "I enjoyed my time here. I wish it could've included a playoff run."

Cyclone792
07-31-2006, 01:47 PM
Lousy strikeout rate, but he's put together a career of keeping the ball in the park. Unlike Majewski, Cormier played in a home park this season that gives up quite a few home runs, and so far this season in Philadelphia Cormier's done a very nice job avoiding the home run.

The cost of Germano was minimal, I think, and while I don't think I'd pay $2+ million for Cormier next season, I'm not necessarily too upset about the extension. If Cormier can continue to keep the ball in the park as a Red - which I think he can do - he'll help us out a bit and thereby make the trade/extension work out for us.

flyer85
07-31-2006, 01:50 PM
Lousy strikeout rate, but he's put together a career of keeping the ball in the park. Unlike Majewski, Cormier played in a home park this season that gives up quite a few home runs, and so far this season in Philadelphia Cormier's done a very nice job avoiding the home run.He likely also benefitted from top notch left side of the infield defense in Philly. He is unlikely to get that from the Reds.

Cyclone792
07-31-2006, 02:04 PM
He likely also benefitted from top notch left side of the infield defense in Philly. He is unlikely to get that from the Reds.

Cormier's going to give up more hits here over the final two months than he gave up in the first four in Philly; I don't think anybody can deny that. But for the lowly cost of Justin Germano, if he can continue to keep the ball in the park, then I'm ok with that.

Drop that bullpen HR/9 rate at a minimal cost, and we'll benefit.

reds44
07-31-2006, 02:07 PM
Rotoworld says that the only way Cormier would waive his 10-5 rights was if the Reds signed him to an extension.

Not a big deal because it is only 1 year.

DoogMinAmo
07-31-2006, 02:09 PM
We had guys to bring in when you needed to strike out one guy, and now Cormier strikes me as the guy you bring in when you need the DP. I can see value in his role. I still hope there is more to come.

Doc. Scott
07-31-2006, 02:49 PM
Rotoworld says that the only way Cormier would waive his 10-5 rights was if the Reds signed him to an extension.

Not a big deal because it is only 1 year.

How well did guaranteeing money to comparable oldsters Chris Hammond and Rick White work out? And that was only $1.3 million combined for both of 'em.

Now $2.25 million for Cormier? Ugh.

corkedbat
07-31-2006, 03:04 PM
Best part of this deal is that Cormier's an experienced lumberjack.

http://www.current.org/prog/prog0523lumberjacks.jpg

You just like the fact that he puts on women's clothing and hangs around in bars. :D

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2006, 03:06 PM
I don't mind the deal all that much, but I don't like the extension.

It just seems like Krivsky should give some of these young arms a chance in the bullpen before shipping them off for the 1998 All-Stars.

Az Red
07-31-2006, 03:08 PM
Another outcome is, according to the Card MLB fan site, the Reds stole Cormier away from St Louis.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-cardinals&msg=59123.1&ctx=0

KronoRed
07-31-2006, 03:50 PM
Not a bad deal, Germano may be something one day..or he may be junk.

RedsManRick
07-31-2006, 04:18 PM
I think the Reds were shopping Toyotas too. They just wouldn't pay 50 grand for a Camry.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2006, 04:30 PM
Well, I think it's fair to say the Reds were window-shoppers/flea-market scroungers instead of wheelers and dealers.

DanO would have been proud of this deadline.

Now the deals get much, much smaller post-deadline. Oh well, maybe it's best? :confused:

BRM
07-31-2006, 04:32 PM
Well, I think it's fair to say the Reds were window-shoppers/flea-market scroungers instead of wheelers and dealers.

DanO would have been proud of this deadline.

Now the deals get much, much smaller post-deadline. Oh well, maybe it's best? :confused:

Would you rather have seen Wayne acquire Mark Redman?

Falls City Beer
07-31-2006, 04:34 PM
Would you rather have seen Wayne acquire Mark Redman?

Were "nothing" and "Mark Redman" my only choices?

Linebrink would have been nice (i.e. a real closer in his prime).

Blimpie
07-31-2006, 06:19 PM
Some of these guys were in Little League then.:laugh:

oregonred
07-31-2006, 07:10 PM
Well, I think it's fair to say the Reds were window-shoppers/flea-market scroungers instead of wheelers and dealers.

DanO would have been proud of this deadline.

Now the deals get much, much smaller post-deadline. Oh well, maybe it's best? :confused:

Maybe I missed all the big trades then?? Zito/Schmidt/Willis/Oswalt/Tejada/Soriano/ et al. They must have been moved since the other "smart" GMs and teams all went shopping at Nordstrom and Coach...

... So other than the Yanks writing some checks no one else can cash in taking on a couple of bad contracts and the treading water Dodgers with some hot prospects to deal (interesting moves with Betemit/Lugo) -- the other 28 GM's did exactly what??

The Cards hit the jackpot -- that Belliard move was a hot one ;)

KronoRed
07-31-2006, 07:53 PM
Some of these guys were in Little League then.
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

PuffyPig
07-31-2006, 11:13 PM
Linebrink would have been nice (i.e. a real closer in his prime).

Before we annoit someone a "real closer", shouldn't he have, ah, maybe closed????

Those 2 whole saves in 5 years must be blinding you.

RFS62
08-01-2006, 08:06 AM
Maybe I missed all the big trades then?? Zito/Schmidt/Willis/Oswalt/Tejada/Soriano/ et al. They must have been moved since the other "smart" GMs and teams all went shopping at Nordstrom and Coach...

... So other than the Yanks writing some checks no one else can cash in taking on a couple of bad contracts and the treading water Dodgers with some hot prospects to deal (interesting moves with Betemit/Lugo) -- the other 28 GM's did exactly what??

The Cards hit the jackpot -- that Belliard move was a hot one ;)



:beerme:

Heath
08-01-2006, 08:44 AM
Best part of this deal is that Cormier's an experienced lumberjack.

http://www.current.org/prog/prog0523lumberjacks.jpg

Perfect. He's ok. Not spectacular or sucky. But OK.

Works for me.

Matt700wlw
08-01-2006, 02:34 PM
He's 39.


So what? He has the best ERA of any reliever in the National League.

Put another :thumbup: next to Wayne Krivsky

flyer85
08-01-2006, 02:36 PM
He's 39.


So what? He has the best ERA of any reliever in the National League.

Put another :thumbup: next to Wayne Krivskyat the pace of his current workload he's likely to have little impact no matter how he pitches.

Over this season his workload suggest he has been moved from the role of middle relief to more of a LOOGY.

For 2003-2005 he averaged a little over an inning an appearance and faced twice as many LHB as RHB.

This year he has 43 appearances and 34IP and his RHB to LHB ratio is around 1.

Matt700wlw
08-01-2006, 02:39 PM
at the pace of his current workload he's likely to have little impact no matter how he pitches.

I would think with the depth the Reds have in the bullpen know, his workload could lighten a bit.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 02:43 PM
I would think with the depth the Reds have in the bullpen know, his workload could lighten a bit.34IP 2/3 of the way through the season is incredibly light. His data suggests he has been used quite a bit as a LOOGY this season. I suspect that he likely has been allowed to pitch against poorer RHB and whenever a good RHB came up Manuel got him out of the game.

Will the Reds use him in a similar role?

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 05:31 PM
Current line:

SPLIT...G..IP....H..R..HR..BB..SO..W.L.Sv..P/GS.WHIP.BAA..ERA
Season.3.19.0.12..2..0....2...5....2..0..0...88.0. .0.74..185..0.47


The History of Justin Germano:
----------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 20 - 7:26 pm et

Justin Germano made a case to stay in the rotation by throwing six solid innings Sunday.

He gave up just six hit and one unearned run, walking one and striking out none. Germano's undefeated through three starts and has been very impressive in the process.

--------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 14 - 11:41 am et

Justin Germano will likely remain in the rotation, according to manager Bud Black.

"More than likely," manager Bud Black said, "it looks as though he's going to stay in the rotation." Germano has an 0.69 ERA in the two games he has started in place of Clay Hensley. The Padres will likely return Hensley to the rotation when he returns from the disabled list next week, meaning Germano will move to the bullpen or possibly David Wells, who has struggled lately, will spend some time on the disabled list.
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

-------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 13 - 7:20 pm et

Justin Germano allowed three hits in seven innings and combined with two relievers on a shutout of the Cardinals on Sunday.

All three games of the series were shutouts, with the Padres winning twice. Scott Linebrink and Trevor Hoffman finished up a 3-0 game today. Germano won in the majors for the first time since May 22, 2004. Clay Hensley bounced back nicely before landing on the DL and deserves to retain his rotation spot when he returns later this month. Still, it's going to be hard to demote Germano when he's throwing like this.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 8 - 9:59 pm et

Justin Germano limited the Braves to one run and three hits over six innings Tuesday in a no-decision.

Germano left with a one-run lead, but that was blown when Heath Bell gave up his second and third runs of the year. Germano will get at least one more start in place of Clay Hensley. The way he's thrown this year suggests that he'd be pretty useful as a fifth starter in Petco, but the Padres won't have any need for him once Hensley is healthy.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 8 - 2:26 pm et

Padres purchaed the contract of RHP Justin Germano from Triple-A Portland.

When Germano faces the Braves tonight, it will be his first appearance for the Padres since 2004. He had a 1.69 ERA in five starts for Portland.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 4 - 6:23 pm et

Justin Germano, who has a 1.69 ERA in five starts for Triple-A Portland, will be called up to replace Clay Hensley in the rotation Tuesday.

Germano gets picked over Mike Thompson. It's doubtful that he'll survive Clay Hensley's return in two or three weeks, but he would be interesting in NL-only leagues if he could stick around.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Mar. 30 - 9:51 pm et

Padres sent RHP Justin Germano outright to Triple-A Portland.

Germano, who was claimed off waivers from the Phillies 11 days ago, cleared waivers this time. He could be needed as a starting pitcher later on.

----------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Mar. 19 - 5:50 pm et

Padres claimed RHP Justin Germano off waivers from the Phillies.

Germano, who was traded to the Reds in 2005 and the Phillies last season, is back with his original organization after Philadelphia failed in an attempt to slip him through waivers. He's out of options, so there's a good chance he'll be available on the wire again later this month. Germano is decent insurance for the rotation, but the Padres have better bullpen options.
Related: Phillies

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jul. 31 - 11:41 am et

Phillies acquired RHP Justin Germano from the Reds for LHP Rheal Cormier.

Germano, who just made a spot start for the Reds on Saturday, was 8-6 with a 3.69 ERA, 124 H and 67/22 K/BB in 117 IP for Triple-A Louisville. The subpar strikeout rate in the result of a below average fastball, but he has a plus curve and decent change, giving him a chance to be a fifth starter. The Phillies could plus him into their rotation soon, though it's doubtful that he'll have fantasy value when it happens.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jul. 30 - 1:05 pm et

Reds optioned RHP Justin Germano to Triple-A Louisville.

Germano gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings Saturday in a spot start against the Brewers.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jul. 29 - 1:48 pm et

Reds recalled RHP Justin Germano from Triple-A Louisville.

Germano will start Saturday against the Brewers. He might make one or two additional starts before Brandon Claussen comes off the DL.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jul. 29 - 12:44 am et

The Reds confirmed that they'll call up left-hander Justin Germano to start Saturday's game against the Brewers.

Dewayne Wise will go to make room. Germano shouldn't have any fantasy value while holding a rotation spot until Brandon Claussen returns.

-------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jul. 27 - 9:32 am et

Justin Germano is likely to start Saturday's game against the Brewers.

The Reds waived Joe Mays on Wednesday and currently have TBA listed as Saturday's starter. Germano, who is 8-6 with a 3.69 ERA for Triple-A Louisville this season, is expected to be given the start. He will only remain in the rotation until Brandon Claussen returns so his value in fantasy leagues isn't great.
Source: Cincinnati Post

--------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jun. 6 - 5:58 pm et

Reds optioned RHP Justin Germano to Triple-A Louisville.

Germano made one appearance in a week with the club, pitching a scoreless inning on May 30.

----------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres May. 30 - 1:14 pm et

Reds recalled RHP Justin Germano from Triple-A Louisville.

Germano was 3-6 with a 4.66 ERA in 10 starts at Louisville. He'll be used in middle relief.

------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Mar. 24 - 3:47 pm et

Reds optioned RHP Justin Germano and LHP Michael Gosling to Triple-A Louisville; reassigned LHP Jung Keun Bong to minor league camp.

The competition between Germano and Gosling to act as Paul Wilson's replacement came to an end when Bronson Arroyo was acquired. Germano was pitching the better of the two, so he might be next in line for a rotation spot until Wilson gets back.
Source: Cincinnati Post

-----------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Mar. 17 - 5:02 pm et

Justin Germano beat the Blue Jays by allowing one run in four innings on Friday.

Germano has given up seven runs and 19 hits in 13 innings. He's competing with Michael Gosling for a spot on the Reds that might not exist if Paul Wilson begins the season in the rotation.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Mar. 3 - 6:25 pm et

Justin Germano gave up two runs and four hits in two innings today against the Tigers.

An easly advantage to Michael Gosling. The two pitchers are competing to become the Reds' sixth starter, with the possibility that either will end up in the rotation should Paul Wilson stumble in his recovery from shoulder surgery.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Jul. 23 - 2:53 pm et

RHP Justin Germano was traded from the Padres to the Reds in a three-player deal.

Germano, who made five starts for the Padres last year, was 7-6 with a 3.70 ERA, 111 H and 100/32 K/BB in 112 IP for Triple-A Portland. The Reds are assigning him to Triple-A for now, but expect him to make at least a few starts in the majors before season's end. His below average fastball leaves him with a limited ceiling, but he could still be a fifth starter or quality middle reliever.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Justin Germano-S- Padres Mar. 19 - 4:28 pm et

Justin Germano, optioned to Triple-A yesterday, was returned to major league camp after Jake Peavy got hurt.

If Peavy isn't ready for Opening Day, either Germano or Tim Stauffer would join the rotation. Stauffer would be the favorite.

--------------------------------------------------------

Drafted - Selected by San Diego Padres in 13th Round (379th overall) of 2000 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) Jun 13,2000 - signed

----------------------------------------------------------

Position: P Full Name: Justin William Germano Born: August 6, 1982 Pasadena,California Height: 6-2 Weight: 190 Bats: R Throws: R High School: Claremont (Claremont,CA)

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Justin-Germano.shtml

redsrule2500
05-21-2007, 05:34 PM
Why does it seem that every pitcher becomes good once they leave Cincinnati? (and vice versa!)

RedsManRick
05-21-2007, 05:55 PM
Germano has 5 SO in 19 IP. I don't know too many pitchers with a 2.37 K/9 that succeed long term. He's not missing bats. He's not allowing hits. Unless he knows some magic of BABIP, that .198 BABIP probably won't hold up.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 05:57 PM
Why does it seem that every pitcher becomes good once they leave Cincinnati? (and vice versa!)

That's not a coincidence.

But, in Germano's case, he didn't become good. He was already good. His lines at AAA Portland were the same before he became a RED as they were after he was a RED. The REDS just didn't give him a chance.

You don't have to strike people out to pitch effectively, nor do you have to avoid being struck out to hit effectively.

The Phillies also had the same problem as the REDS, and the Padres never seem to have this type of problem. The Padres' Baseball system is great at evaluating and developing pitchers, as are the Braves and the A's. It's not a coincidence.

Though Wayne was able to identify Arroyo, he missed this one on Germano. Too bad Elizardo Ramirez wasn't traded away instead of Germano.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 05:58 PM
Germano has 5 SO in 19 IP. I don't know too many pitchers with a 2.37 K/9 that succeed long term. He's not missing bats. He's not allowing hits. Unless he knows some magic of BABIP, that .198 BABIP probably won't hold up.

I hate the concept of missing bats to pitch effectively.

A pitcher's much better off to get a player to hit the ball poorly than to try to get him to miss the pitch completely.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 06:01 PM
Let me define, "good". Good is the ability to go 7 innings and give up 3 runs or less, which is an ERA under 4.00 and would make that pitcher a very solid #3 pitcher in either league.

BRM
05-21-2007, 06:03 PM
I hate the concept of missing bats to pitch effectively.

A pitcher's much better off to get a player to hit the ball poorly than to try to get him to miss the pitch completely.

If you scour the stats page at ESPN for pitchers with K/9's as low as Germano's, you won't find many successful pitchers.

Cooper
05-21-2007, 06:06 PM
I'd rather have a pitcher miss bats. You stack up 10 pitchers who miss bats vs 10 who don't. They have the same stats excet for K's per 9innings. The guys that miss bats will out perform those that don't 90% of the time (over a season). Over the life of a career...i'm guessing it's 100 % of the time.

The Baumer
05-21-2007, 06:10 PM
Does anyone know if Cormier will arrive in time to pitch tonight's game in WA?

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 06:11 PM
I know, but how can you have it both ways?

If the best hitters strike out the most...the power hitters, then what good does it do if you can strike them out? The next time they'll just hit a 3-run blast or a bases-clearing double to the wall.

Just because the majority of pitchers who are unsuccessful have low K/9 ratios, doesn't mean that a pitcher who does is or will be a poor pitcher.

Germano is the evidence staring you in the face right now. You can't deny it.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 06:13 PM
I'd rather have a pitcher miss bats. You stack up 10 pitchers who miss bats vs 10 who don't. They have the same stats excet for K's per 9innings. The guys that miss bats will out perform those that don't 90% of the time (over a season). Over the life of a career...i'm guessing it's 100 % of the time.

But, it's not 100% of the time. The list of pitcher in the 135 years of baseball is endless that have had success by getting players to hit poorly, not miss altogether.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 06:17 PM
Get away from the stats page and speak to a pitching coach.

Ask him what's the most important aspect of pitching.

They will all tell you, "the ability to spot your pitches". Speed isn't a factor, nor are strikeouts.

The strikeout is the most overated stat in baseball.

If you can spot your pitches you'll keep the other team from scoring runs, you'll enduce popups, you'll enduce lazy flyballs, you'll enduce double-plays, you'll enduce lazy groundballs, you'll enduce dribblers back to the pitcher, and you'll keep your defenders on their toes a lot more than a strikeout pitcher will. The innings will be quicker, you'll go deeper into games. A strikeout pitcher will come out of the game sooner.

Cooper
05-21-2007, 06:17 PM
He's been hit lucky. No pitcher with that low K's/9 can succeed over time. Germano's stats can (imho) only get worse from here on out. They're a facade.

The best hitters don't strike out the most. Some do --but most have a low K/PA.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 06:20 PM
He's been hit lucky. No pitcher with that low K's/9 can succeed over time. Germano's stats can (imho) only get worse from here on out. They're a facade.

The best hitters don't strike out the most. Some do --but most have a low K/PA.

He has not been "hit lucky". That's a stat made up by someone who sits at a computer and needs to get out to the ballpark and watch some live pitching.

He was the cause of what happened. He caused the balls to be hit poorly, not "luck".

Cooper
05-21-2007, 06:24 PM
Do the test --you'll find it's 100% of the time--everything else being equal. If everything is equal (except for K's /9 innings), the guys with the higher K rate will have better careers.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 06:50 PM
Germano, promoted from triple-A Portland on May 8 to replace injured Clay Hensley (strained groin), held Seattle to an unearned run and six hits in six innings and the Padres beat the Mariners, 2-1, on Sunday. Germano (2-0) has given up one run and 12 hits in 19 innings for a 0.47 earned-run average.

"I've said over the past couple weeks that Germano is pitching in the big leagues where he left off in triple A," Padres Manager Bud Black said. Germano was 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five starts for Portland.

"He has the ability to throw strikes," Black added. "He's locating. He's changing speeds to affect the hitters' timing. Then you add the movement on his fastball and that equates to success."

Padres closer Trevor Hoffman, who got his 11th save despite a shaky ninth inning, said of Germano: "Justin has had three quality starts. He has worked his way into this rotation. I know they're going to have some difficult decisions to make. Clay did a nice job prior to his injury. It's a good problem to have."

I'll take the opinions of Bud Black over some stat put together on a computer....and the above quote was the first thing I found a couple of minutes ago...almost an hour after my comments about "having the ability to locate your pitches" as being the most important quality a pitcher can have.

RedsManRick
05-21-2007, 07:00 PM
Given the statement you've bolded above, I take it that you feel Black is right. Because of the bolded items, Germano is currently the best pitcher in baseball. He's allow fewer hits than Johan Santana. I'm not saying he's not effective. 2 walks in 19 IP is great. He certainly has shown very good control. However, his BABIP is simply unsustainable. I'll refer you to last year's BABIP leaders with a minimum of 100 IP (to minimize the role of luck -- variation).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=115841

An interesting thing to note is that as you increase the minimum IP threshold, your outliers (in both directions) fall off. This is because as the IP, you have a regression to the mean effect. Extreme cases which result from a small sample size start go away. For example, if you limit the query to those pitchers with at least 200 IP, a list of some very good pitchers, the lowest BABIP is .259 (Carlos Zambrano) and the worst is .336 (Zack Duke). In 2005, that range was .248 (Roger Clemens) to .328 (John Lackey). 2004, .252 (Johan) to .332 (Jason Jennings). It's not that pitchers don't have an effect. Clearly there is some relationship between pitcher quality and BABIP. But the effect is small regresses to a mean of ~.290 over large sample sizes. If such variation were truly under the pitcher's control, you'd see elite pitchers with BABIP of .250, like we see in any given season. But, alas, we just don't. Over 95% of pitchers with a few seasons worth of innings with have a BABIP of between .270 and .310. And the quality of those pitches will be quite mixed across that limited spectrum.

It's been shown in multiple studies that pitchers simply don't have very much influence over how often a ball put in to play becomes a hit -- other than keeping it in the yard. It's somewhat counter intuitive, but it's been shown over and over, starting with the work by Voros McCracken a few years back.

A few points of supporting evidence, realizing of course this isn't "proof" per se'. Career BABIP:

Great Pitchers
G Maddux: .288
P Martinez: .277
J Santana: .287
M Rivera: .276
R Johnson: .301

Bad Pitchers:
E Milton: .294
K Lohse: .313
L Cormier: .296
L Hudson: .285
D Williams: .273

Only a few pitchers in baseball history have career BABIP outside of the range we would expect to see if there was simply random variation (ie. no ability to control BABIP). Hopefully somebody can link the work done in this regard by BP.

I think that the above sample shows while great pitchers might have a minor effect, by and large, all pitchers fall in the same, relatively small range, particularly over longer careers in which things have a chance to even out. If anybody is reknown for inducing bad contact, you'd say it would be Mariano Rivera and Greg Maddux. Yet, over their careers, they've allowed the same BABIP as Luke Hudson and Dave Williams.

The idea behind pitching to contact is not that you can induce bad contact at will. It's rather this simple set of percentages based on possible at bat outcomes:

Strikeout: 100% chance of an out
Ball in play (non-homer): 70% chance of an out
Walk: 0% chance of an out
Homer: 0% chance an out and 100% of a run(s) scoring.

Don't walk people and don't give up too many homers and you'll be an effective pitcher. If you can do the above, then strikeout as many guys as possible and you'll be an even more effective pitcher. But even the worst starters in baseball only allow 31% balls in play for hits compared to 27% for the best. The real difference in pitchers is fewer walks, fewer homers, and fewer balls in play (aka strikeouts).

The quality of the balls in play isn't something that the pitcher has much control over. Not only do the career numbers bear that out, but look at season to season variation of any given pitcher. If it was really something he could control, would you expect it to be more consistent?

Thus, when an Aaron Harang is giving up a BABIP of .340 in 2007, we recognize that he's essentially getting unlucky. Over the course of the season that will regress to the mean and he'll suddenly allow fewer runs. However, he very well could be allowed the exact same types of hits, they just won't fall in as often and won't fall in in the same situations.

If you don't want a pitcher to have to miss bats, you better hope he doesn't walk anybody and doesn't allow homers. Allowing more ground balls is also a good thing because ground balls are less likely to be extra base hits. That's how you get a Chien Mien Wang. However, take away any one of those things and you have a Victor Zambrano (BABIP: .287), who just allows too many base-runners to be truly effective, even though he keeps the ball in the yard.

MWM
05-21-2007, 07:33 PM
Get away from the stats page and speak to a pitching coach.

Ask him what's the most important aspect of pitching.

They will all tell you, "the ability to spot your pitches". Speed isn't a factor, nor are strikeouts.

The strikeout is the most overated stat in baseball.



Then you shouldn't have any problem finding a dozen or so pitchers who have had long, successful careers while having very low strike out totals. There just aren't that many of them.

RedsManRick
05-21-2007, 07:50 PM
I'll take the opinions of Bud Black over some stat put together on a computer....and the above quote was the first thing I found a couple of minutes ago...almost an hour after my comments about "having the ability to locate your pitches" as being the most important quality a pitcher can have.

I don't quite understand this logic ED. We're not claiming opinions. The "stat put together on a computer" is simply a measurement of things that actually happened. How does a guys opinion carry more weight than actual occurances. If I have a thermometer which tells me it's 72 degrees and the weatherman tells me it's 74, I'm going with 72.

I have no doubt that locating pitches is an extremely important skill for pitchers to be successful. However, the logical leap from locating pitches being important to strikeouts not being important is simply a misstep. Locating pitches means that the pitcher isn't walking people by missing the zone. It means he's not allow homers by grooving pitches down the middle. Locating pitches allows the pitcher to do lots of things that lead to success.

There's a very strong correlation between great control, and great success. Bud Black has identified this correctly. But that doesn't mean he's got the causation formula complete. There's a difference between knowing how to do something and know why the thing you're doing has a given effect.

As others have pointed out, if all it took to be successful was locating pitches well, then surely you'd find cases of pitchers who struck out very few people and had great success. But you just don't see that. Does it mean you have to strike out a ton of guys to be succesful? Nope. It's a balance formula of sorts. The fewer people you strikeout, the more balls get put in play. The more balls get put in play (given a fixed BABIP of around .290, as I argued earlier), the more people get on base. The more people get on base, the more runs score. So sure, if you never walk anybody and never allow home runs, you can balance out the negative affect of allowing lots of base runners via hits. However, without a modicum of strikeouts, it's virtually impossible to allow so few walks and so few homers to make up the difference. That minimum amount of strikeouts, as history has shown, is around 5.5k/9 IP. And the more strikeouts you have, the more walks you can have and the more homers you can give up without losing effectiveness.

I don't mean to belabor the point ED. I understand where you're coming from. However, I don't believe a coach necessarily is the expert on why something works. They may know what and they may know how, but that doesn't mean they know why. Heck, if the "what" and "how" are right, they don't need to know "why". When an objective, unbiased measurement based in thousands of observations over decades suggests that their "why" is wrong, I'm going to stick with the numbers.

One last point that may help. That idea of balance is very important. Yes, strikeouts are a very good thing. However, they don't erase the need for being successful in other areas as well. You can strikeout 300 guys a year, but if you walk everybody in sight and allow a bunch of home runs, you're gonna stink in terms of ERA. History has given us no player who could strikeout enough people to offset the necessity to keep the ball in the yard (no more than 2.5 HR/ 9 IP) and not give up a ton of free passes (5 BB / 9 IP).

red-in-la
05-21-2007, 08:04 PM
Any program that I have ever written that dealt with lists of data, which is what stats usually are, had some prejudice in it. So when I hear a statement like, "stats are simply a measurement of what really happened" I have to smirk a bit.

Not that I am questioning this set of stats at all RMR, it's just that the statment sounds just too much like, "well, I saw it on TV so it must be true."

In other words, comparing the EVALUATION of stats to a measurement on a thermometer is just a bit too accepting to me.....but that is just me.

Eric_Davis
05-21-2007, 08:17 PM
I don't quite understand this logic ED. We're not claiming opinions. The "stat put together on a computer" is simply a measurement of things that actually happened. How does a guys opinion carry more weight than actual occurances. If I have a thermometer which tells me it's 72 degrees and the weatherman tells me it's 74, I'm going with 72.

I have no doubt that locating pitches is an extremely important skill for pitchers to be successful. However, the logical leap from locating pitches being important to strikeouts not being important is simply a misstep. Locating pitches means that the pitcher isn't walking people by missing the zone. It means he's not allow homers by grooving pitches down the middle. Locating pitches allows the pitcher to do lots of things that lead to success.

There's a very strong correlation between great control, and great success. Bud Black has identified this correctly. But that doesn't mean he's got the causation formula complete. There's a difference between knowing how to do something and know why the thing you're doing has a given effect.

As others have pointed out, if all it took to be successful was locating pitches well, then surely you'd find cases of pitchers who struck out very few people and had great success. But you just don't see that. Does it mean you have to strike out a ton of guys to be succesful? Nope. It's a balance formula of sorts. The fewer people you strikeout, the more balls get put in play. The more balls get put in play (given a fixed BABIP of around .290, as I argued earlier), the more people get on base. The more people get on base, the more runs score. So sure, if you never walk anybody and never allow home runs, you can balance out the negative affect of allowing lots of base runners via hits. However, without a modicum of strikeouts, it's virtually impossible to allow so few walks and so few homers to make up the difference. That minimum amount of strikeouts, as history has shown, is around 5.5k/9 IP. And the more strikeouts you have, the more walks you can have and the more homers you can give up without losing effectiveness.

I don't mean to belabor the point ED. I understand where you're coming from. However, I don't believe a coach necessarily is the expert on why something works. They may know what and they may know how, but that doesn't mean they know why. Heck, if the "what" and "how" are right, they don't need to know "why". When an objective, unbiased measurement based in thousands of observations over decades suggests that their "why" is wrong, I'm going to stick with the numbers.

One last point that may help. That idea of balance is very important. Yes, strikeouts are a very good thing. However, they don't erase the need for being successful in other areas as well. You can strikeout 300 guys a year, but if you walk everybody in sight and allow a bunch of home runs, you're gonna stink in terms of ERA. History has given us no player who could strikeout enough people to offset the necessity to keep the ball in the yard (no more than 2.5 HR/ 9 IP) and not give up a ton of free passes (5 BB / 9 IP).

That was a good explanation....very well written. I'll get back to you.

RedsManRick
05-21-2007, 08:20 PM
Any program that I have ever written that dealt with lists of data, which is what stats usually are, had some prejudice in it. So when I hear a statement like, "stats are simply a measurement of what really happened" I have to smirk a bit.

Not that I am questioning this set of stats at all RMR, it's just that the statment sounds just too much like, "well, I saw it on TV so it must be true."

In other words, comparing the EVALUATION of stats to a measurement on a thermometer is just a bit too accepting to me.....but that is just me.

Well, BABIP is the percentage of balls in play which were hits. Is there bias in that number? Sure! Official scorers make different decisions, some rules have changed over time, etc. Just the same way a thermometer might not be precisely calibrated. Any measurement is bound to be flawed in some way.

I certainly don't mean to claim absolute perfect truth. The use of statistics is a measurement of reality the same way that human perception and judgment is a measurement. However, I have more faith that the numbers are a more accurate, less biased representation of that reality than is the perception and judgment of any one person.

I'll fully own up to the fact that biases exist in all data. However, the claim of bias in a generic manner does not substantiate the implied claim that the bias is equivalent to that which exist in human perception. If you can expound on your claim of bias in the numbers, showing me how they misrepresent reality, I'm all for it.

However, the claim being made here is fully enclosed within those biased measurements. It's saying, when X measured thing occurs, Y measured thing tends to result. Unless you are suggesting that those statistical measurements are fundamentally and significantly different than what is really happening, then the claim is true, but fundamentally not important in this context.

Are those numbers "perfect"? Heck no. Do they provide better insight in to the "reality" of pitcher performance than Bud Black's intuition and experience, yes, I think they do. I guess that's the fundamental difference in the arguments being made. I will say that I have never met a person who has the background of understanding statistical methods and baseball who disagrees with the basic contentions I've made in this thread.

I don't disagree that Bud Black has numerous insights which are very germane and useful. However, I think that we often see people take their legitimate insights, observations, and experience and make conclusions which are at best only weakly supported and at worst not supported at all by other means of measurement.

I brush my teeth everyday. I get hungry every day. That doesn't brushing my teeth makes me hungry, despite all my experiential evidence suggesting it does... I am a veritable expert on brushing my teeth and feeling hunger. That doesn't mean I'm an expert on the origination of the feeling of hunger. It's a minor, but very important distinction.

MWM
05-21-2007, 08:25 PM
Good stats are simply probabilities. That's all they're intended for. Sometimes they get interpreted as absolutes and sometimes people position them as absolutes, but they aren't intended to be. It's not impossible to be a good pitcher in the majors for a sustained period of time with low strike out totals. It's just not likely and it hasn't happened very often.