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View Full Version : Soriano stays with the Nationals



Phhhl
07-31-2006, 04:42 PM
Bowden should be fired if they don't re-sign him.

Reds Fanatic
07-31-2006, 05:27 PM
Soriano will remain with the Nationals according to Sporsline. Apparently Bowden was asking too much so a deal did not get done.

KronoRed
07-31-2006, 05:30 PM
Not surprised at all, Soriano is the definition of a Bowden player.

westofyou
08-01-2006, 11:47 AM
Let's see if this topic can avoid the bolded part.

IMO Bowden made a mistake quite similar to a prior one in his career, he handcuffed his current franchise with a player, a player with 1/2 the cache of the previous mistake he made.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5373&PHPSESSID=5443e22554c93acd3a12a0565d50bed7


#1: The Nationals hold on to Alfonso Soriano.

In an environment of constant change—the MLB rumor mills—the one thing I held to throughout July is that Soriano would be dealt. He was one of the top three hitters available, playing out his contract for a team that isn’t contending or currently in danger of doing so in the next two years. That Jim Bowden wouldn’t get this deal done, despite having the last top-tier hitter available and at least four teams actively pursuing him, is a terrific argument for replacing him in the Nats front office.

One of the hardest things to analyze from the informed-outsider position is deals that don’t happen. You hear and read all kinds of rumors, but only Bowden knows what offers were actually put on the table. It’s well-established that Bowden, perhaps emboldened by his steal from the Reds, was asking for a lot for Soriano, and that factor appears to have driven the end result. But what also played into it was the Nationals’ apparent desire to negotiate a long-term deal with Soriano to keep him in D.C. after this season.

Let’s look at that option. At 30, Soriano is having what may be the best year of his career, with his highest EqA and on pace to post his highest WARP. He’s shown definite improvement in his plate discipline and has hit for more power than ever before. His defense, in his first year in left field, has been passable. He’ll be one of the top free agents this offseason; as a WAG, let’s say he gets slightly less than Johnny Damon money: four years, $48 million, for his ages 31-34 seasons, the early decline phase. I think that’s conservative.

Soriano was a great player at his peak in New York and something less than that with the Rangers. In deciding they want to keep him, the Nats are making the fundamental mistake of evaluating a player entirely on his most-recent work and deciding that that’s his level. Year in and year out, hundreds of millions of dollars—no, I’m not exaggerating—are committed to players who have their best year at the best time and have little hope of repeating it. The most likely scenario is that Soriano doesn’t match his age-30 performance again, while being paid for it through 2010. If he signs with the Nationals, his ages 31 and 32 seasons will almost certainly be spent on teams that are fringe contenders, rather than true ones. Signing him makes less sense for them, from a projected return standpoint, than it does a number of other teams who might leverage his performance, his marginal revenue product, into playoff spots.

Now look at the other path. As I said, it’s hard to know what was actually rejected, but let’s consider a fairly low-end, quite reasonable offer that made the rounds. The Twins reportedly offered Scott Baker and Jason Kubel for Soriano. Kubel won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2007 at least, Baker not until 2008 at least. Both are solid B prospects, and Kubel has a higher upside than that. Bowden wanted prospect Matt Garza instead, and no deal was reached.

Let me simplify this choice: Bowden decided that he’d rather have Alfonso Soriano from ages 31-34 than Jason Kubel from 25-28, Scott Baker from 25-28…and $35 million! Unless Soriano is suddenly going to morph into Albert Pujols--hell, even if he is—you have to pull the trigger on this trade. The gap in production for the cost is far too great. You can make this deal and then use the money on Jason Schmidt and think seriously about the 2007 wild card.

Even that’s not really the choice. There’s nothing stopping Bowden from trading two months of performance that do nothing but hurt his team’s draft position next year and maybe drive some small amount of money into the team’s coffers, then chasing Soriano this winter! You’re betting the small chance that he’ll sign with his new team before hitting the market, but you’re getting back two pre-arb players, one who bats third and the other who could be your #2 starter right now.

Run the numbers with the other offer that was widely reported, the Angels’ Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar, and the results are the same. Bowden had multiple ways to make the Nationals a much better team from 2007-2010 and he didn’t get the job done. He overplayed his hand and set the Nationals back this weekend. Coming off of years of mishandling, they couldn’t afford that kind of loss. Unless Soriano somehow clears waivers, this is the biggest story, and biggest mistake, of deadline 2006.

backbencher
08-01-2006, 12:41 PM
I never bought into the theory that Bowden's personality interfered with his ability to make trades - no GM should let personality get in the way of a deal.

I wonder if it hurt him here, though - not in that he asked for too much, but in that no one trusted him enough to leave an offer on the table for long.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 01:04 PM
I never bought into the theory that Bowden's personality interfered with his ability to make trades - no GM should let personality get in the way of a deal.

I wonder if it hurt him here, though - not in that he asked for too much, but in that no one trusted him enough to leave an offer on the table for long.

I completely disagree on how personality wouldn't interfer with a trade. I think the Tommy Lasorda situation in LA would glean a little light onto what kind of egomaniac Bowden was.

Johnny Footstool
08-01-2006, 01:38 PM
I think Bowden screwed up pretty badly, but I also think there's a chance he'll make a waiver deal with someone. Soriano is expensive and a pending FA, so there's a chance he could slip through to a team that really wants/needs him.

Highlifeman21
08-01-2006, 02:57 PM
I think Bowden screwed up pretty badly, but I also think there's a chance he'll make a waiver deal with someone. Soriano is expensive and a pending FA, so there's a chance he could slip through to a team that really wants/needs him.

I can't imagine Soriano clearing waivers for a deal to take place. I would bet someone, anyone would claim him to block the move.

Bowden screwed the pooch on this deal, or lack thereof. He went from King of DC when he "fleeced" the Reds, as some media outlets reported, to not trading away his biggest bargaining chip. If this year was Bowden audition for the new Nationals ownership, then consider him a flop, and I'd be very surprised if he were retained thru the offseason.

Matt700wlw
08-01-2006, 03:59 PM
Bowden must think he can resign him.


I think he's an idiot, and is still the Jim Bowden we all grew to despise.... :)

BRM
08-01-2006, 04:01 PM
Someone will offer Soriano equivalent money and the opportunity to play 2B again and he'll leave D.C. Bowden dropped the ball on this one.

REDREAD
08-01-2006, 04:45 PM
It all depends.

It depends on what Bowden was offered. If he was offered middling talent, then sometimes it makes sense to say "no", even if that means taking nothing. Why? Because the next time people are negotiating with Bowden at the trade deadline, they know he won't simply cave at the best offer to avoid getting nothing.

If nothing else, the Nationals will either resign him or get draft picks. That might be better than getting a Yarnell, Reith, and Drew Henson for him.

On the surface, it looks like a no brainer just to take what you can get for Soraino, but look at what Carlos Lee fetched.. not a whole lot. If the Nats couldn't get one "sure thing youngster" plus 2 other good prospects, I can see why Bowden decided not to deal. It looks like it quickly became a buyer's market.

And I doubt most fans are mad at Bowden for not dealing Soriano. Sure, the diehard message board types will be, but most fans aren't rooting for the team to trade their best player for the purpose of rebuiding. To say that not trading Soriano should cost Bowden his job is just plain silly. After all, Bowden was the one who took the risk to get Soriano in the first place, despite everyone saying he was stupid.

Matt700wlw
08-01-2006, 04:56 PM
Somebody should have told Bowden their offer was a "6 tooler" and he would have had to change his leather pants

KronoRed
08-01-2006, 05:01 PM
Someone will offer Soriano equivalent money and the opportunity to play 2B again and he'll leave D.C. Bowden dropped the ball on this one.
Guess he wants the draft pick for a high school arm ;)

Johnny Footstool
08-01-2006, 05:34 PM
I can't imagine Soriano clearing waivers for a deal to take place. I would bet someone, anyone would claim him to block the move.

Bowden screwed the pooch on this deal, or lack thereof. He went from King of DC when he "fleeced" the Reds, as some media outlets reported, to not trading away his biggest bargaining chip. If this year was Bowden audition for the new Nationals ownership, then consider him a flop, and I'd be very surprised if he were retained thru the offseason.

He doesn't have to clear waivers, he just has to make it past all the low-level teams and get picked by a wildcard contender. There's no way the Cardinals, Yankees, or Red Sox could get him, but he might make it to a midrange contender. There's a chance he could do that, slim though it may be.

Spitball
08-01-2006, 06:27 PM
He doesn't have to clear waivers, he just has to make it past all the low-level teams and get picked by a wildcard contender. There's no way the Cardinals, Yankees, or Red Sox could get him, but he might make it to a midrange contender. There's a chance he could do that, slim though it may be.

True, but with a waiver deal, Bowden is no longer an auctioneer selling to the highest bidder.

This winter, he must hope Soriano takes a home team discount or else he pays a very high price to keep Soriano. If Soriano doesn't sign with the Nats, Bowden looks like a fool, IMO.

Spring~Fields
08-01-2006, 06:30 PM
Bowden needs to be spending his egg money on pitching, pitching, pitching.

Spitball
08-01-2006, 07:24 PM
Bowden needs to be spending his egg money on pitching, pitching, pitching.

What, with Ramon Ortiz as his ace??? ;)

UKFlounder
08-01-2006, 08:51 PM
A few months ago, some thought Bowden foolish for acquiring Soriano - he played 2B, where Vidro was, would not convert to the OF and would not put up good numbers in such a pitchers park.

Now, Bowden is called a fool for not getting rid of that same player.

Interesting how things turn around, and though I certainly understand those who criticize JimBo for not trading him, perhaps the "best trade he made will be one he didn't make" in the long run. Who knows?