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View Full Version : Playoff Baseball why Wayne made the moves he did.



bellhead
07-31-2006, 10:54 PM
Ok. Here is my 2cent blurb of why Wayne made the moves he made, some may agree with me or not, but they are my 2 cents. Wayne realizes this team can win the world series this year as it is built. We have the two best 1-2 combo in the national leauge right know with Harang and Arroyo. The playoffs in Baseball are unlike the regular season due to extended days off. This means the pitching staffs are shortened rarely do you see the #4 pitcher, you see the #1 and #2 starters in roughly 60% of the games. The rest is the #3 and the bullpen. The Reds problay have the deepest bullpen now in national leuage and one of the 3 best in baseball. All they lack is the Tom Gordon, Wagner top end close now. The bullpen is the second key to the puzzle. With a deep pen the #3 and #4 starter are neutralized to a certain extent. All they need to give you is 4-5 good innings, then bring in the pen. The third is team defense which is now very good also.

If they Reds can hold onto the wild card, they would be favorites due to pitching in any matchup against National leuage playoff teams right now. The Mets are the best team in the national right now but we have a better 1-2 than they do, the Cards, and whoever will win the West.

Why do I believe in why this is true we will use the 2001 world series where the D-backs rode the best 1-2 in recent memory to the championship.
The best example is the Diamondbacks run in 2001. They had the best 1-2 punch in recent memory. With Johnson and Schilling which lead them to the title. Here are the stats below.

In the division series which is 5 games.
Diamondbacks vs. Cards

Game 1 Schilling 0 runs 9 innings (win)
Game 2 Johnson 3 runs 8 innings (loss)
Game 3 Batista (win)
Game 4 Lopez (loss)
Game 5 Schilling 1 run 9 innings (win)

So Johnson and Schilling pitched 60% of the games in the division series.

In the NLCS
Diamondbacks vs. Braves

Game 1 Johnson 0 runs 9 innings (win)
Game 2 Batista (loss)
Game 3 Schilling 1 run 9 innings (win)
Game 4 Lopez see side not 3 innings (win)
Game 5 Johnson 2 runs 7 innings (win)



Diamondbacks IP H R
Albie Lopez 3 5 2
Brian Anderson(W, 1-0) 3 1/3 4 1
Mike Morgan(H, 2) 1/3 1 0
Greg Swindell(H, 1) 1/3 0 0
Miguel Batista 0 3 1 1
Byung-Hyun Kim(S, 2) 2 0 0

In game four with Lopez being the weakest link the D's went to the pen quickly and shut Atlanta down except for 2 more runs.

So again 60% Johnson and Schilling. They are a combined 5-1 at this point.

Now the world series
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees.

Game 1 Schilling 7 innings 1 runs (win)
Game 2 Johnson 9 innings 0 runs (win)
Game 3 Anderson (loss)
Game 4 Schilling 7 innings 1 run (loss) blown by pen 4-3 yanks
Game 5 Batista 7.2 innings 0 runs (win)
Game 6 Johnson 7 innings 2 runs (win)

66% of the games the two headed monster pitched.

They finished for the postseason 8-2 which is astounding and it should have been 9-1 except the blown loss in game 4 by the pen. The two-headed monster arguement which is what I am basing this on is won the world series for them. You are going to face my top two guys 60% of the time and beat them. Are my top two guys better than years, this year for us Reds fans yes they are better than anybody in the national and that is why my head is high right now. We are in an excellent position now. All we have todo is make it to the post season.

The trades today where made to put this team in a position to win the championship this year. Alot of the problems are gone we still have several holes, but the bullpen is fixed, we have a dominant 1-2 pitcher combo, and the defense is sound. These are the three elements to winning the post season. Based on the moves today and the last few weeks, the Reds can very well win it. The American leauge is tougher this year than the National, but puzzle has been put together very well by Krisky and it is almost complete.

thatcoolguy_22
07-31-2006, 11:23 PM
Based on the moves today and the last few weeks, the Reds can very well win it. The American leauge is tougher this year than the National, but puzzle has been put together very well by Krisky and it is almost complete.


it makes perfect sense not to trade for a 5th starter however one must remember that our 1-2 punch is not the same today as it was between april and june. Mar to Jun arroyos stats

Apr 4-0 2.34 5g 7bb 30k
May 2-2 2.79 6 10 29
June 3-2 2.57 6 9 30


Now here is July...
July 0-3 5.45 5 8 29

not quite johnson or schilling esque

He is on pace to pitch more innings than at any point in his career and he seems to be tiring down the stretch... Hopefully Narron will be more willing to pull our pitchers before they hit the wall with our revamped bullpen. Harang is solid and should remain near the 3.5 ERA mark. If we could have put together some sort of blockbuster involving Homer+ for a Zito, Dontrelle, or Schmidt it would have been closer to your Johnson and Schilling example... On the flip side I LOVE the way that our bullpen has come together and the improved defense. Royce Clayton already making 3 errors since hius arrival should be a concern but I still think that we have enough to make a playoff push.

dieselman44
07-31-2006, 11:40 PM
mets have a better 1-2 punch then us, martinez-glavine

macro
07-31-2006, 11:47 PM
mets have a better 1-2 punch then us, martinez-glavine

Yes, they do, and would most likely sweep the Reds in a five-game series.

RedsMan3203
07-31-2006, 11:47 PM
Martinez is hurt, and Glavine.. well

For July - Glavine




G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
6 6 0 2 0 0 0 33.0 50 28 22 3 15 16 6.00 1.97 .357



Take it how you want it.

So, 0 wins in 6 GS, 33 IP and given up 50 hits! ERA at 6, WHIP of 3 and Oppents are hitting .350 off of him.

Not so steller.

RedsMan3203
07-31-2006, 11:51 PM
Month G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
April 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 39.1 31 12 10 2 13 31 2.29 1.12 .215
May 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 33.2 27 11 11 3 9 29 2.94 1.07 .225
June 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 34.2 43 19 19 10 11 15 4.93 1.56 .312
July 6 6 0 2 0 0 0 33.0 50 28 22 3 15 16 6.00 1.97 .357




Take a look at his whole season really... Each month goes by.. he gets worse.

Tommyjohn25
07-31-2006, 11:51 PM
mets have a better 1-2 punch then us, martinez-glavine


I disagree, I think Harang can match up with any other number 1 in the NL, as far as Arroyo/Glavine, I think it's a wash, whoever has the better command that day would get the win. However, I do know that the Mets have the better offense.

edabbs44
07-31-2006, 11:52 PM
I disagree, I think Harang can match up with any other number 1 in the NL, as far as Arroyo/Glavine, I think it's a wash, whoever has the better command that day would get the win. However, I do know that the Mets have the better offense.
I love Harang, but he can't match Webb.

RedsMan3203
07-31-2006, 11:53 PM
I love Harang, but he can't match Webb.


Not Stuff Wise....

But you put those 2 pitchers up against each other... Its going to be one hell of a game....

keeganbrick
08-01-2006, 12:03 AM
Martinez and Glavine > Harang and Arroyo.

We must win the Central so we do not have to play them in first round.






















Bailey > Martinez and Glavine

James B.
08-01-2006, 12:05 AM
If the reds can make the playoffs then they have as good a chance as anybody in the National League to go to the world series. The mets sre the better team but you never know. All it takes is for a team to get hot at the right time. I think it's great that the reds are finally in the playoff race. If you would have said that this team was leading the wild card this late in the season before the season started I think everyone would have been happy.

I love the new bullpen. I just hope that Narron will start going to it earlier in games now. I think that the starters are being left in the game to long. I could see that last month before the trades but now Narron has options.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 12:09 AM
The Mets have a number of great weapons, not the least of which is the postseason secret cache named Orlando Hernandez. When he chooses to be untouchable, he is.

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2006, 12:22 AM
We have the two best 1-2 combo in the national leauge right know with Harang and Arroyo.

Don't think so. I would also take Carpenter/Suppan over Harrang/Arroyo as well. Oswalt/Clemens is definitely a better overall punch as well (even if their offense can't help them). A healthy Sheets/Capuano also I think is better. Both teams (while not likely) could still be contenders.

That's not a knock to Harrang, but more so to Arroyo and his recent struggles.

jimbo
08-01-2006, 12:24 AM
However, I do know that the Mets have the better offense.

True, but a good offense can be overcome by good pitching.

Razor Shines
08-01-2006, 12:47 AM
Martinez and Glavine > Harang and Arroyo.


I don't agree, I think it's a complete wash this year. Harang has been great this year, Pedro hasn't been healthy but will probably get together and be himself in the playoffs, Glavine has struggled of late and is getting old, Arroyo has also struggled of late and the Mets offense got a little worse today losing Nady. I think it would be a good series.

The Baumer
08-01-2006, 01:39 AM
Harang has the advantage of not pitching against the Reds, although the opposing pitchers have the advantage of pitching to a sleepwalking Ken Griffey Jr. So, actually, I think it's even.

cincrazy
08-01-2006, 02:56 AM
If Mulder can come back healthy, the Carpenter and Mulder surpass Arroyo and Harang. I love Arroyo and Harang, but those two guys alone aren't going to be enough. With as weak as the NL is, we certainly have a chance, but we would need to catch some breaks. And so far, we have. Hopefully that continues.

Redhook
08-01-2006, 09:16 AM
Wayne realizes this team can win the world series this year as it is built. We have the two best 1-2 combo in the national leauge right know with Harang and Arroyo. The playoffs in Baseball are unlike the regular season due to extended days off. This means the pitching staffs are shortened rarely do you see the #4 pitcher, you see the #1 and #2 starters in roughly 60% of the games. The rest is the #3 and the bullpen. The Reds problay have the deepest bullpen now in national leuage and one of the 3 best in baseball. All they lack is the Tom Gordon, Wagner top end close now. The bullpen is the second key to the puzzle. With a deep pen the #3 and #4 starter are neutralized to a certain extent. All they need to give you is 4-5 good innings, then bring in the pen. The third is team defense which is now very good also.

Why do I believe in why this is true we will use the 2001 world series where the D-backs rode the best 1-2 in recent memory to the championship.
The best example is the Diamondbacks run in 2001. They had the best 1-2 punch in recent memory. With Johnson and Schilling which lead them to the title. Here are the stats below.

We are in an excellent position now. All we have todo is make it to the post season.

The trades today where made to put this team in a position to win the championship this year. Alot of the problems are gone we still have several holes, but the bullpen is fixed, we have a dominant 1-2 pitcher combo, and the defense is sound. These are the three elements to winning the post season. Based on the moves today and the last few weeks, the Reds can very well win it. The American leauge is tougher this year than the National, but puzzle has been put together very well by Krisky and it is almost complete.

I do love your optimism. You make some good points and I agree with your analysis, but I don't think this team is quite ready. I've bolded the topics I'll discuss.

I love the Reds and think we can make the playoffs, but not for one second do I think we can win it all this year. I don't think we're the 1990 Reds by any stretch.

We don't have the best 1-2 combo in the National. Clemens/Oswalt is much better. Sheets/Capuano is probably better when healthy.

Our team defense is still not very good. Is it better than it was? A little bit, I guess. Dunn in left and Jr. in center is not very good. Clayton has proved that he isn't as good as advertised. RA at third reduces errors, but also reduces range. I still think our defense is very questionable.

Yes, Johnson and Schilling were the best 1-2 combo in recent memory. And I'll go further. They might be the best 1-2 of all-time. Johnson is sure hall-of-famer and is one of the best lefties of all-time. Schilling is border-line HOF and when on, he is one of the best. Harang/Arroyo are not Johnson/Schilling. I know you didn't say they were, but I don't think you can compare them either. I love Harang and Arroyo, but I don't believe they're good enough to carry this team through the playoffs like Johnson/Schilling did.

We're in good position right now, not excellent. We have a one-game lead. We have a tough next 3 series (LA, Atlanta, St. Louis) so we'll see what happens.

I think we can win the Wild Card. I would love it if we did. And I think we might be able to win one series in the playoffs. Anything more is highly unlikely this year. Hopefully next year we'll have a decent SS, one more good starter and a whole year with a good pen. Then, we will have a shot at winning it all.

ChatterRed
08-01-2006, 09:28 AM
According to Marty Brenneman, Lopez is not a good shortstop. According to Team Clark, Kearns is lazy and has a hitch in his swing that he refuses to correct. Don't know what the truth is..........but those two doing the analysis seem to have some decent credentials. So I think everyone needs to get off of Krivsky's back on that trade.

Our bullpen went from horrible to respectable very fast with the addition of Guardado, Bray, Mejewski, and now Cormier. And it seems like Coffey, Standridge, and the Standridge's twin (who's name escapes me right now) are pitching better of late. Kriv's has stockpiled some good young talent and experienced talent in the bullpen for the final 2 months. That is impressive in itself. Maybe the 5th starter is going to be by committee.........hahaha! Who knows.

ThatPitchIsDunn
08-01-2006, 09:35 AM
This may be splitting hairs, but didn't the 2001 Series go 7 games? This only furthers your point though as I believe Schilling started Game 7 on 3 days rest and Johnson came in relief on I think one.

2 in the 9th off Rivera in Game 7 to win the World Series. What a Fall Classic that was.