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View Full Version : I'll be perfectly honest: I don't get it



Brutus
07-31-2006, 11:44 PM
Everyone here has their own rights to an opinion. And most, do have in fact valuable opinions and very educated ones at that.

Did Wayne Krivsky overpay for these last three trades?

Maybe he did, maybe he didn't. That's such a subjective topic there probably isn't really a great answer, but the answer lies within the end result.

If you ask me, the end result is two-fold - do the Reds make the playoffs and do they retain the bulk of their future.

In this particular humble opinion - most likely will to the first question and most definitely yes to the second.

But isn't this what everyone wanted?

Goodness, since 1999, everyone here has complained about the Reds being too complacement. They've complained at the near futility of ownership and upper management. They've been upset because they want to see the Reds put a winner on the field.

For the first time in that 6-year span, Wayne Krivsky has quickly cleaned out a very sobering clubhouse and made the Reds a playoff and division contender heading into August. Yes, not only did they start well, but here we are heading into the last 8 weeks of the season and they are in first place for the wildcard and just 3.5 games behind St. Louis.

Think back to the beginning of the season, maybe before the season. How many people would have been absolutely ecstatic if someone had told you that Krivsky would take Cincinnati's bleak pitching staff in March, and molded it to a sufficient, dependable staff by July. You would have all been thrilled.

If Krivsky is nothing else - he's serious and he's determined to field a winner.

So the Reds gave up a couple of moderate pitching prospects. Big deal!

What do you want? Would you rather the Reds sit tight and make no deals whatsoever? I would guarantee anyone that if Krivsky wanted to mortgage the future, he could have made several more trades this week. Homer Bailey and Joey Votto are still in the Reds' organization, which that right there tells me Krivsky doesn't want to risk the future either.

But I've got news for anyone complaining about losing the Justin Germanos and Zach Wards of the world - unless you're willing to take on huge salaries, you don't get something for nothing.

As of April 1-15, it was readily apparent that the Reds severely lacked one thing: a bullpen.

As of August 1, although the Reds are not the perfect team, no one can say any longer there is a glaring weakness. That is the goal here, is it not?

Eddie Guardado, Dave Weathers, Todd Coffey, Billy Bray, Gary Majewski, Rheal Cormier and Kyle Lohse. That's a little better than Weathers, Coffey, Kent Mercker, Matt Belisle, Rick White, Brian Shackelford and Mike Burns.

I happen to think giving up Germano for Cormier is steep, but it was necessary. I also still think giving up Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns in the same deal for the return the Reds got from the Nationals was too much.

But again, I see the rationale for doing so, and since that trade, I feel the Reds have become a slightly better team if the effects aren't even immediately obvious beyond having a better record after the trade than before.

In any event, I'm going to step down from this soapbox. There's nothing wrong with these opinions... but to those complaining about these trades, what would you rather have?

We're talking about small trades to make the team better for prospects that may project as nothing more than No. 4 starters. Is that really a bad thing for an organization finally in a playoff hunt the last month or two of the season? I would hope not.

cincrazy
08-01-2006, 12:04 AM
Couldn't agree more. Took the words right out of my mouth.

KalDanielsfan
08-01-2006, 12:32 AM
he could have done a helluva lot more with what he gave up. lopez/kearns could have brought a helluva lot more than bray and majewski

CincyReds2003
08-01-2006, 12:35 AM
he could have done a helluva lot more with what he gave up. lopez/kearns could have brought a helluva lot more than bray and majewski


:deadhorse


Since we're beating a deadhorse, I do love this little tidbit in the Sporting News..

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=113295

Trade deadline winners and losers
July 31, 2006

Now that the trade deadline officially (and finally) is history, let's check in on some of the winners and losers.

Winner: Reds. In the past month, they've bolstered their bullpen with four and possibly five new relievers, depending on how Kyle Lohse does as a starter. Already on top of the wild-card race, look for the Reds to stay in contention the rest of the season. If balloting for executive of the year was today, GM Wayne Krivsky would be a runaway winner.

Loser: Jim Bowden. He can spin it any way he likes now, but when Alfonso Soriano signs with the Yankees this winter, Bowden's failure to trade him could cost him his job. Make that should cost him his job.

Brutus
08-01-2006, 12:39 AM
he could have done a helluva lot more with what he gave up. lopez/kearns could have brought a helluva lot more than bray and majewski

I happen to agree with you, and I've felt that way (and even said as much) since the trade.

But the best measure of a trade is not as black and white as getting the most talent in return for the least amount of talent. It's about fitting pieces into a puzzle.

With every move made, the game changes. Sometimes the old cliche 'less is more' is appropriate when making deals too.

I think he could have maximized his return with Lopez and Kearns, but he didn't. Regardless of what he's done or could have done, he has the Reds in position for a playoff spot and they're much better than they have been the last 6 years - made up of a large handful of players that he acquired. So instead of saying, "he got beat on this deal or that deal," we should be saying, "collectively, he's made some great deals that have put a winner on the field."

If Bray doesn't live up to his potential, and Majewski continues to struggle, and Clayton's weak bat hurts the Reds consistently and they fade down the stretch because of lacking Kearns and Lopez in the lineup, then it's fair game to say he could have done better. And you're right, he probably could have done better in terms of acquiring talent.

But right now, I see no reason to criticize the man too much. Not given the circumstances overall.

Ibleedblue
08-01-2006, 12:51 AM
I totally agree. I don't really think we have lost anybody that was going to help us now or in the future. Ward was good where he was at, but in Low A, who really knows what he was going to be? What we gained was a good bullpen and that was worth it, if you ask me.

KalDanielsfan
08-01-2006, 12:52 AM
I happen to agree with you, and I've felt that way (and even said as much) since the trade.

But the best measure of a trade is not as black and white as getting the most talent in return for the least amount of talent. It's about fitting pieces into a puzzle.

With every move made, the game changes. Sometimes the old cliche 'less is more' is appropriate when making deals too.

I think he could have maximized his return with Lopez and Kearns, but he didn't. Regardless of what he's done or could have done, he has the Reds in position for a playoff spot and they're much better than they have been the last 6 years - made up of a large handful of players that he acquired. So instead of saying, "he got beat on this deal or that deal," we should be saying, "collectively, he's made some great deals that have put a winner on the field."

If Bray doesn't live up to his potential, and Majewski continues to struggle, and Clayton's weak bat hurts the Reds consistently and they fade down the stretch because of lacking Kearns and Lopez in the lineup, then it's fair game to say he could have done better. And you're right, he probably could have done better in terms of acquiring talent.

But right now, I see no reason to criticize the man too much. Not given the circumstances overall.


You're right. i mean i shoudlnt criticize him but I also want to flip that and ask why people are on his nuts for this too. For people to claim we now have the best bullpen in the NL is ridiculous. we're not even close.

mets, padres, cards, and maybe even the marlins have better bullpens than the reds do right now.

so lets not get too negative and lets not exagerrate either.

and honestly, one prospect, lopez and kearns would have gotten Tejada this deadline.

i would have bet my left nut on it.

and a few mid level prospects coudl have gotten the likes of Bray and Majewski

kaldaniels
08-01-2006, 12:58 AM
You're right. i mean i shoudlnt criticize him but I also want to flip that and ask why people are on his nuts for this too. For people to claim we now have the best bullpen in the NL is ridiculous. we're not even close.

mets, padres, cards, and maybe even the marlins have better bullpens than the reds do right now.

so lets not get too negative and lets not exagerrate either.

and honestly, one prospect, lopez and kearns would have gotten Tejada this deadline.

i would have bet my left nut on it.

and a few mid level prospects coudl have gotten the likes of Bray and Majewski

Statwise to this point in the season, I don't know but I'll take your word. Down the stretch however, no chance the Reds bullpen is the worst of that bunch.

I do appreciate you being a fan of mine though. :thumbup:

GOREDSGO32
08-01-2006, 01:00 AM
Well see, I think all the trades he did were good solid trades.

Kearns and Lopez is going to be dissected over and over for weeks, months, even years to come probably ... but it was two everyday players for two likely, everyday bullpen pitchers. Lopez wasn't going to be the next Larkin, he's not going to be a perrenial All Star guys - same with Kearns. People act like they were MVP candidates. Maybe we could have drew more, maybe not, but if we waited till the offseason would it have been acceptable? If we make the playoffs this year, would you trade that for still having Kearns and Lopez in the offseason, and not making the playoffs? BTW we saved some dough in that deal, it doesnt matter how big the wallet is on Castellini - it can be used for more important matters like pitching.

The other two trades are ones the Reds win easily. I don't see how anyone at any form can say we got ripped. It's two played in the majors versus two players in the minors. Once again, people overvaluing their players. Germano is probably going to be a career minor leaguer with spot major league playing time. A guy who does solid work in the minors, but not spectacular, and comes to the majors a time or two. Jose Acevado anyone? And we traded a single A dime a dozen pitcher, who ANYTHING could happen to down the line. Even if he's awesome and progresses according to plan - its 2 years before they see anything. And guess what people? There's a draft every year of pitchers in the same position. It's a crapshoot for players that low in the orginzation, I can't see the point of crying about that.

jregensb
08-01-2006, 01:16 AM
Did Wayne Krivsky overpay for these last three trades?
Last three trades? You can go back further than that for claims that K got fleeced. There were people who thought he overpaid for Arroyo.

That said, I'm satisfied with the roster if not necessarily the everyday lineup. A lot of people have been upset with Clayton, but for my money Majewski is the guy who's making the Kearns deal look bad. His ERA over the last ten games is a very unmanageable 11.88; the bulk of the damage coming after he started sporting the wishbone C.

CincyReds2003
08-01-2006, 01:47 AM
This took me a while but I analyzed the stats of the bullpen since this trade was made...The bullpen has a 3.63 ERA since the trade, and a 3.4 ERA since the All-Star Break. Todd Coffey has a 2.50 ERA since the trade, and a 0.00 ERA since the All-Star Break. The bullpen is also responsible for 5 Wins, 7 saves, 8 holds, 2 Blown Saves, and 1 loss. Yes, if you take out Maj, the ERA comes down to 2.40. If anything, this trade, as well as the bullpen shakeup has affected this team. I truly think that people were scared that their jobs were in jeopardy, and they got their heads out of wherever they were, and started performing. I like all of the deals because this team is better and we are 11-8 since making these deals,while over a nineteen game stretch before the trade, we were 7-12. If something wasn't done, I think St.Louis would be coasting with a double digit lead over us, as well as being 7 or more games behind the Wild Card. We might have given up too much, but we would have fallen hard by now, without making some kind of deal.

cincrazy
08-01-2006, 01:52 AM
There's no way on earth the Orioles give up Tejada for Kearns and Lopez and another. If Ervin Santana and Aybar don't pry Tejada away from Balt., I would imagine that nothing short of Adam Dunn and Homer Bailey from this organization would bring in a player like him. Angelos wasn't going to give him up, plain and simple.

KalDanielsfan
08-01-2006, 02:03 AM
maybe a Votto, Bailey, kearns and lopez would ve gotten soriano?

soriano at second base, mvoe phillips to SS?

that would have been sick.

Brutus
08-01-2006, 02:07 AM
maybe a Votto, Bailey, kearns and lopez would ve gotten soriano?

soriano at second base, mvoe phillips to SS?

that would have been sick.

Sick? yes.

But what happens when Soriano begins making errors at a much more frantic pace than Lopez did at SS? You have the same problems all over again.

What's worse... what if you give up Votto, Bailey, Kearns and Lopez and then Soriano leaves at the end of the year. You just gave up your entire organization's brightest future for a 2-month rental.

RedsIn07
08-01-2006, 02:09 AM
maybe a Votto, Bailey, kearns and lopez would ve gotten soriano?

soriano at second base, mvoe phillips to SS?

that would have been sick.
Dear God no.

Soriano would have mostly likely been a 2 month rental for a team like the Reds and not anywhere near worth that cost, plus he's pretty bad defensively anywhere you put him.

KalDanielsfan
08-01-2006, 02:17 AM
maybe i was being a bit overzealous lol but I just miss the days of great offense.

the larkin, oneill, davis, sabo (when he was throwing up 28 hr's a year), hal morris flirtation with the batting crown, 1990 reds...

now that was a great offense.

Brutus
08-01-2006, 02:19 AM
Kal, the Reds have had great offense for the last decade, and where has it got them?

They led the NL in runs last year, where did that get them?

Offense isn't the problem. They needed pitching to boast anything more than saying they can outscore teams 11-8 on a given day.

toledodan
08-01-2006, 02:22 AM
the only player we have traded so far this summer that i regret losing is kearns. while i hate losing him we are a stronger club. freel is getting more playing time which most people wanted. the bullpen is almost redone as well. if only we can get narron to move phillips to short now we could get castro and clayton out of the everyday spot. also EE needs to be at third everyday. this needs to be the everyday lineup starting tuesday.

freel RF
dunn LF
griffey CF
edwin 3B
hatteburg 1B
rich 2B
phillips SS
ross C
pitcher

we can flip rich and edwin's spot in the order if it makes narron happy.:D

KalDanielsfan
08-01-2006, 02:26 AM
the only player we have traded so far this summer that i regret losing is kearns. while i hate losing him we are a stronger club. freel is getting more playing time which most people wanted. the bullpen is almost redone as well. if only we can get narron to move phillips to short now we could get castro and clayton out of the everyday spot. also EE needs to be at third everyday. this needs to be the everyday lineup starting tuesday.

freel RF
dunn LF
griffey CF
edwin 3B
hatteburg 1B
rich 2B
phillips SS
ross C
pitcher

we can flip rich and edwin's spot in the order if it makes narron happy.:D

are u crazy? this lineup would make too much sense! you know narron isnt gonna ever use it ;)

REDREAD
08-01-2006, 01:45 PM
Loser: Jim Bowden. He can spin it any way he likes now, but when Alfonso Soriano signs with the Yankees this winter, Bowden's failure to trade him could cost him his job. Make that should cost him his job.

Disagree with this. Bowden named his price for Sorianno, and no one took it. Sometimes it makes sense to not trade a pending FA when the offers aren't worthy. If nothing else, it helps Bowden next year at the deadline, because they know he won't cave in like some loser teams on the last day and take the best available deal, even if it's bad.

If you're not getting a young player that has a good chance to be at least average plus 1-2 other decent prospects, why even bother trading Sorianno?

Look at the floatsam we got in 2003 (other than Harang, and yes, I'm including Claussen in there). Other than Harang, no real contributions despite a lot of roster turnover. The buzzards were circling our corpse because they knew in the end that the Reds would give away players. Would've been better to just hold most of those guys and get legitimate value out of 1 or 2 than to trade all 8 of them for very little.

At bare minimum, Bowden gets draft picks for Soraino. At best, he might be able to resign him. Either scenerio might be a better yield than settling for the best offer on July 31.

registerthis
08-01-2006, 01:47 PM
:deadhorse

So it's OK to make a post rationalizing some of the deals that krivsky has made, but disagreeing with one or more of those deals is beating a dead horse?

Gotcha.

Always Red
08-01-2006, 02:33 PM
Well, we'll see how it all pans out, with time.

I know 2 things:

1. Krivsky and Castellini did not get an offseason to tweak the team to their liking prior to this season.

2. This is a better baseball team than the one that left Sarasota at the end of March.

Redhook
08-01-2006, 03:11 PM
EE needs to be at third everyday. this needs to be the everyday lineup starting tuesday.

freel RF
dunn LF
griffey CF
edwin 3B
hatteburg 1B
rich 2B
phillips SS
ross C
pitcher

we can flip rich and edwin's spot in the order if it makes narron happy.:D

How this is not the everyday lineup is beyond me and pretty much everyone else:dunno: ? Phillips can play shortstop. I truely believe Sparky or Lou would find a way, some way, to get the best 8 players on the field.

EddieMilner
08-01-2006, 03:29 PM
the only player we have traded so far this summer that i regret losing is kearns. while i hate losing him we are a stronger club. freel is getting more playing time which most people wanted. the bullpen is almost redone as well. if only we can get narron to move phillips to short now we could get castro and clayton out of the everyday spot. also EE needs to be at third everyday. this needs to be the everyday lineup starting tuesday.

freel RF
dunn LF
griffey CF
edwin 3B
hatteburg 1B
rich 2B
phillips SS
ross C
pitcher

we can flip rich and edwin's spot in the order if it makes narron happy.:D

I keep hearing people scream about having BP move to SS for the rest of the year. I truly feel it would take the off season to get BP ready to play SS for a season. Going from playing 2B everyday to SS everyday is not an easy task. Everyone on this board acts like its as easiest thing to do in baseball. If BP could play SS effectively right now, the Reds would have him there. He'll be there when he isn't a liability.

buckeyenut
08-01-2006, 05:42 PM
So it's OK to make a post rationalizing some of the deals that krivsky has made, but disagreeing with one or more of those deals is beating a dead horse?

Gotcha.
Every time anyone mentions anything related to Krivsky, that one trade seems to be brought up. My view at this point is, so what? Worst case, he screwed up one trade. I'd say he is hitting on about 75% so far.

Matt700wlw
08-01-2006, 05:44 PM
he could have done a helluva lot more with what he gave up. lopez/kearns could have brought a helluva lot more than bray and majewski

Based on.....??

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 05:45 PM
At this point, what's done is done--no more big trades likely to happen till the offseason. Krivsky's not done what I think he could have accomplished, but honestly complaining about those particular trades or non-trades isn't going to change anything.

I'll now turn my rage toward their ability or inability to execute between the chalk lines.

REDREAD
08-01-2006, 05:48 PM
Every time anyone mentions anything related to Krivsky, that one trade seems to be brought up. My view at this point is, so what? Worst case, he screwed up one trade. I'd say he is hitting on about 75% so far.

The only other trade he might've screwed up on is the Lohse trade. While I'm not mad about the loss of the prospect, Lohse is kind of a high risk guy, and I question the need for him in the pen, given that we just picked up Cormier.

I know nobody wants to hear this, but I think the real reason we got Lohse was as insurance for Clausen at the #5 slot. It's a good idea to get insurance for the #5 slot, but I would've liked getting something better.

Note, I'm not saying the Lohse trade was criminal or anything :lol: , and it's not likely to cost us big if it blows up but it might end up being a bad trade.