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View Full Version : What Can Krivsky Do With A Full Offseason?



Krusty
08-01-2006, 09:59 AM
I have to admit Wayne Krivsky has shown that he is just as good as a wheeler and dealer as Jim Bowden, but knows the importance of building for the longhaul with a solid farm system. Just the number of moves he has made in less than a year, makes you wonder what he could do with a full offseason under his belt. With all his moves so far, none of the top 10 prospects of this club were dealt.

If anything, Krivsky has renewed interest in the Cincinnati Reds.

princeton
08-01-2006, 10:01 AM
40 man roster will have 30 relievers and 10 catchers

Chip R
08-01-2006, 10:03 AM
40 man roster will have 30 relievers and 10 catchers

You may be off a bit. You have to make room for 8 middle infielders.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 10:06 AM
I don't know, but the method always seems to be to push back the point at which we make a judgment of a GM--"Now, let's give him the offseason before we make judgments....."

Ltlabner
08-01-2006, 10:08 AM
I know I keep harping on this, but despite all of our flaws we are in the hunt for the WC and division, in the first year since the departure of the Lindner/Allen/Obrian reign of terror. And don't even mention Schott/Bowen and the abuse they heaped on the club. The team has a lot of problems but we are aruging over how to win the division, not how to get out of last place.

It will be very interesting to see what he can acomplish in the offseason both in player moves and contiued FO/scouting/minor league improvements. There will prob be a lot of moves in that area that we may never hear about. My guess is we'll see a reshuffling of onfield tallent. BP to SS. EE to 3rd. etc. Some of the guys here now (Clayton, Weathers, Merker) woln't be back next year. Something tells me Hume will be sent packing also. Hopefully we'll see more of Mario Soto and other helpfull former Reds in spring training and more longer term coaching/consulting roles.

I know people feel we can be a much stronger team if we changed this or that, and I agree with most of the positions. But you have to admit, he's been part of the reason why we went from basement fodder to being "in the hunt" at this time in the season.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 10:12 AM
Right now Krivsky's running on fumes from the draft and deadline flatline; he'll need a Some Girls and not a Bat Out of Hell II to clean his reputation if the Reds fail to make the postseason.

corkedbat
08-01-2006, 10:14 AM
Scrappy up the roster with abundant veteraness?

Actually, I do look for them to make a run at a couple of "name" free agents this year (position and pitching) - especially if they can move Milton and/or Junior.

I don't know how successful they will be going up against the Big Boys, but I think they'll try. If nothing else, just to create a buzz.

Ltlabner
08-01-2006, 10:15 AM
Right now Krivsky's running on fumes from the draft and deadline flatline; he'll need a Some Girls and not a Bat Out of Hell II to clean his reputation if the Reds fail to make the postseason.

Nah, even taking a last place team to 2nd place in one season is a pretty decent debut album. More of a Shake Your Money Maker type thing.

Johnny Footstool
08-01-2006, 10:19 AM
I don't know, but the method always seems to be to push back the point at which we make a judgment of a GM--"Now, let's give him the offseason before we make judgments....."

I can recall a lot of people saying, "You can't judge DanO based on only one offseason. It will take him several years to make his impact."

Ltlabner
08-01-2006, 10:22 AM
I don't know, but the method always seems to be to push back the point at which we make a judgment of a GM--"Now, let's give him the offseason before we make judgments....."

I think we can make a judgement on where he is currently. Currently he's got a team picked to be dead last in 2nd place, 1st in the WC and with a shot at winning the division.

Will this hold up? I don't know. But I don't think I need to push off any judgement on him. So far he's doing a pretty decent job. Room for improvement? Certinally, but so far so good IMO. Sure beats being in last place don't it?

Krusty
08-01-2006, 10:25 AM
Right now Krivsky's running on fumes from the draft and deadline flatline; he'll need a Some Girls and not a Bat Out of Hell II to clean his reputation if the Reds fail to make the postseason.

Say what you want about the Washington trade, but look how the bullpen has reversed its fortunes with the acquistions of Guardado, Majeski and Bray. Now you add Lohse and Cormier to go with Coffey and Weathers, that's better than running out the likes of Shackelford, Standridge and Belisle.

And given Brandon Claussen's fine performance at Louisville last night, I have a hunch Lohse will be starting Saturday's game.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2006, 10:28 AM
I think he could do his best to eliminate any player that was associated with the old regime.

It appears to me that he wants to make his mark with "his" players.

I would think in 2-3 years there will be no links to any of DanO or Jimbo's players, aside from the star prospects (Bruce, Bailey, etc.) and hopefully Dunn and EE.

Krusty
08-01-2006, 10:29 AM
I think he could do his best to eliminate any player that was associated with the old regime.

It appears to me that he wants to make his mark with "his" players.

I would think in 2-3 years there will be no links to any of DanO or Jimbo's players, aside from the star prospects (Bruce, Bailey, etc.) and hopefully Dunn and EE.

Heck, it has taken up to now for Krivsky to unload Dan O'Brien's acquistions. Now that he has the players he wants and the front office people in place, expect the retooling to continue this offseason.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2006, 10:32 AM
Heck, it has taken up to now for Krivsky to unload Dan O'Brien's acquistions. Now that he has the players he wants and the front office people in place, expect the retooling to continue this offseason.


That's what I said or at least meant to say. I should have used the word "will" instead of could.

IslandRed
08-01-2006, 10:45 AM
The way I look at it, we had a GM that seems to be biased toward pitching, defense and a good farm system taking over an organization diametrically opposed to that. It's a rough road he's traveling. I guess it's a matter of preference as to whether the road should be traveled slowly to minimize the jarring, or just clench the teeth, hit the gas and hang on.

dabvu2498
08-01-2006, 10:50 AM
Get more former Twins. ;)

BRM
08-01-2006, 10:52 AM
The way I look at it, we had a GM that seems to be biased toward pitching, defense and a good farm system taking over an organization diametrically opposed to that. It's a rough road he's traveling. I guess it's a matter of preference as to whether the road should be traveled slowly to minimize the jarring, or just clench the teeth, hit the gas and hang on.

It may seem like he's got a preference for defense but he hasn't shown it yet. The only plus defender he's added is Phillips. Other than that, it's been nothing but lip service.

He does seem to be going full steam ahead on improving the pitching.

Krusty
08-01-2006, 10:53 AM
Get more former Twins. ;)

If he gets LHP Johan Santana, I will take all the Juan Castros of the world.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 10:53 AM
Sign Clayton and Guardado to LT contracts

BRM
08-01-2006, 10:54 AM
Sign Clayton and Guardado to LT contracts

What about Aurilia? Any chance he resigns him?

LincolnparkRed
08-01-2006, 10:58 AM
What about Aurilia? Any chance he resigns him?

I have a feeling Jerry will push for that.

IslandRed
08-01-2006, 11:10 AM
It may seem like he's got a preference for defense but he hasn't shown it yet. The only plus defender he's added is Phillips. Other than that, it's been nothing but lip service.

True. That's probably a longer-term and less urgent project than the pitching, and it's not an absolute. When figuring out who to play where, hitting obviously matters a great deal, and it appears they prefer not to do their major position shifts during the season if they can help it.

Where I think we'll see it go -- over time -- is that defense will be more strongly considered and he'll try to acquire players who are actually good at the position, rather than previous regimes' penchants for always choosing the best hitter regardless of defense, playing guys as far left on the defensive spectrum as they could be without being totally embarrassing.

BRM
08-01-2006, 11:17 AM
True. That's probably a longer-term and less urgent project than the pitching, and it's not an absolute. When figuring out who to play where, hitting obviously matters a great deal, and it appears they prefer not to do their major position shifts during the season if they can help it.

Where I think we'll see it go -- over time -- is that defense will be more strongly considered and he'll try to acquire players who are actually good at the position, rather than previous regimes' penchants for always choosing the best hitter regardless of defense, playing guys as far left on the defensive spectrum as they could be without being totally embarrassing.

I hope you're right. I'd like to see Wayne acquire a good SS this offseason. Or a quality 2B and move Phillips to SS. Moving Griffey out of CF would pay huge dividends for the defense as well. We'll find out this winter if Wayne really is defensive-minded.

Kc61
08-01-2006, 02:44 PM
My guess is that the big items this off-season will be:

1. Acquiring a free agent starting pitcher;

2. Trading Griffey or moving his position to right field;

3. Figuring out the middle infield situation.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 02:47 PM
What about Aurilia? Any chance he resigns him?I forgot him, I'm sure Wayne won't.

KronoRed
08-01-2006, 04:06 PM
Rich has a mutual option for 2 million bucks, the Reds will definitely pick it up, but Rich may go on the market to see what he can get.

KronoRed
08-01-2006, 04:07 PM
I don't know, but the method always seems to be to push back the point at which we make a judgment of a GM--"Now, let's give him the offseason before we make judgments....."
Yeah I recall all the Dan O like threads of that nature, he didn't officially suck till he was canned

BRM
08-01-2006, 04:10 PM
Rich has a mutual option for 2 million bucks, the Reds will definitely pick it up, but Rich may go on the market to see what he can get.

He'd probably stay if promised the everyday 3B job.

KronoRed
08-01-2006, 04:18 PM
He'd probably stay if promised the everyday 3B job.
I'll lose all hope in Wayne if he does such a thing :help:

Matt700wlw
08-01-2006, 04:23 PM
If this team fails to make the postseason, it IS NOT because ownership and Krivsky weren't trying to win...


The previous regime would stand pat, and if they got lucky, maybe they could make the playoffs, but quite honestly, that wasn't their main objective.

redsandrails
08-01-2006, 04:33 PM
I wonder if we could save up the 12-13M / year to get Jason Schmidt.

We did dump two guys who will get major raises in Kearns and Lopez.

Keep in mind all the FA's in the pen- Cormier, Guardado, Weathers and Mercker.

Griffey- 12M
Dunn- 10M
Arroyo- 4M
Harang- 4M
Aurilia- 2M
Freel- 2M (resign)
Hatteburg- 1.5M
Castro- 1.5M (resign)
Lohse- 1M- a lot less w/ arb
Valentin- 1M (resign)

500k or less on average: (5M total)
Bray
Encarnacion
Ross
Phillips
Coffey
Ramirez
Donorfia
Watson
Majewski
Claussen

That's only 44 million for 20 players... Ideally 2 starters, 2 relievers and a bench guy would be signed. The roadblock is unloading LaRue/Milton. If a taker was found for Milton (like for Jon Lieber and Mike Lieberthal..adding 2006 payroll but since both are FA's free for 2007). LaRue could probably be dealt for a struggling bench bat for like 2M. The payroll is 46 million then after unloading them.

Jason Schmidt could probably be signed for about 12-13 per year for 4 years as well as a Mark Redman type for 2-3M and 2 middle relievers for 2M apiece, assuming a 65M budget.

Puffy
08-01-2006, 04:40 PM
What about Aurilia? Any chance he resigns him?

That should read "Any chance he does not resign him?"

Puffy
08-01-2006, 04:42 PM
Yeah I recall all the Dan O like threads of that nature, he didn't officially suck till he was canned

Same with Boone, same with Miley, same with Lopez, same with Kearns.

Spring~Fields
08-01-2006, 04:47 PM
Krivsky moved Willy Mo, Kearns and Lopez for pitching. So I am thinking that he might move Dunn, Encarcion and Larue for pitching and payroll reduction or flexibility. For the lack of better words or explanation, I think that Krivsky finds something inconsistent in those types of players that he has moved and he might have that same mind set with the latter three, plus he might not have anything else to deal with, in that Castellini has not really shown me to date that he is a big spender.

Johnny Footstool
08-01-2006, 05:55 PM
Same with Boone, same with Miley, same with Lopez, same with Kearns.

Yep.

buckeyenut
08-01-2006, 06:06 PM
I don't know, but the method always seems to be to push back the point at which we make a judgment of a GM--"Now, let's give him the offseason before we make judgments....."

I don't think this was intended to be a "Wait until the offseason. Then we can judge him" post. I think it was a "Wait until the offseason. Man what fun it is going to be to watch Krivs work." post.

And quite frankly, while his vision for the team is different than mine, I believe he has a vision and is passionate about reaching it very quickly. And that is fun to watch and I respect it greatly.

traderumor
08-01-2006, 06:40 PM
I don't think this was intended to be a "Wait until the offseason. Then we can judge him" post. I think it was a "Wait until the offseason. Man what fun it is going to be to watch Krivs work." post.

And quite frankly, while his vision for the team is different than mine, I believe he has a vision and is passionate about reaching it very quickly. And that is fun to watch and I respect it greatly.
Dude, don't you know that the poster's only refuge is "the GM picked A, I would have done B." You give that up, what do you have? ;)

Cedric
08-01-2006, 08:37 PM
Yeah I recall all the Dan O like threads of that nature, he didn't officially suck till he was canned

This some kind of weird joke?

Dan O'brien was universally hated around these parts from the get go.

I figured you of all people would remember things posted, but lately it seems you forget them when it helps your agenda on other Redszone posters.

Ltlabner
08-01-2006, 08:39 PM
This some kind of weird joke?

Dan O'brien was universally hated around these parts from the get go.

I figured you of all people would remember things posted, but lately it seems you forget them when it helps your agenda on other Redszone posters.

No kidding. People were howling about DanO almost from the first gibberish laden press conference. He was certinally hated come the last trade deadline that passed with almost zero activity.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 09:39 PM
This some kind of weird joke?

Dan O'brien was universally hated around these parts from the get go.

I figured you of all people would remember things posted, but lately it seems you forget them when it helps your agenda on other Redszone posters.

There were a number of people who were taking a wait and see approach with DanO through his first season. It wasn't until the Milton signing that the pitchforks broke out.

He remembers it perfectly.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 09:48 PM
He said Dan O'brien wasn't considered to "suck" until he was canned.

So unless you think that's before the Milton signing your point isn't valid.

Aronchis
08-01-2006, 10:04 PM
Krivsky is looking like a dead duck to me. His inability to see the light on this team and poor excuses of deals he has had lately, really dulls his light as Cast who couldn't convince a younger, more youth driven GM to come here. That in my book is quite telling.

Color me not impressed nor that optimistic what he can do over the offseason. Just that Narron returned makes me mad enough.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 10:08 PM
He said Dan O'brien wasn't considered to "suck" until he was canned.

So unless you think that's before the Milton signing your point isn't valid.

Your point is he was hated from the get-go by everyone. Your point isn't valid.

Anyway, it wasn't until he was "officially" gone that some people started to come out of the woodwork and actively bash the guy.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 10:09 PM
Krivsky is looking like a dead duck to me. His inability to see the light on this team and poor excuses of deals he has had lately, really dulls his light as Cast who couldn't convince a younger, more youth driven GM to come here. That in my book is quite telling.

Color me not impressed nor that optimistic what he can do over the offseason. Just that Narron returned makes me mad enough.

I agree with most of your sentiment. Unfortunately, I think he'll be back next year all year.

MWM
08-01-2006, 10:19 PM
There were a number of people who were taking a wait and see approach with DanO through his first season. It wasn't until the Milton signing that the pitchforks broke out.

He remembers it perfectly.

The way I remember it is that there were plenty of DanO cheerleaders clear until the Reds sucked the middle of last season. His offseason when he signed Milton et al. was generally lauded by both the majority here (although the minority was very vocal, remember RFS's poll) as a great job by DanO. It wasn't until some time last May or June that many of the same people shouting his praises in the offseason were calling for his head on a platter. It was only 18 months ago when he was rather popular.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 10:22 PM
Your point is he was hated from the get-go by everyone. Your point isn't valid.

Anyway, it wasn't until he was "officially" gone that some people started to come out of the woodwork and actively bash the guy.

I guess we just disagree then.

I could have sworn that most people here disliked O'brien way before he was canned.

How many disliked and how many liked? I dunno.

And I never once said that everyone disliked O'brien from the get go. Where you see that? I was talking specifically about the after he was canned point from Krono.

Anyways it's just a difference in memory I guess.

KronoRed
08-01-2006, 10:58 PM
My post said "I recall" never once did I state "IT WAS THIS WAY AND NO OTHER WAY"

Agenda? I have no such thing.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 10:59 PM
the interesting part is that if there are some players who may save the franchise they are likely to be DanO draftees.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 11:01 PM
the interesting part is that if there are some players who may save the franchise they are likely to be DanO draftees.

What I find interesting is that most of the same people who bashed DanO in the early going are the same ones expressing doubt about Wayne now.

Coincidence? I doubt it.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 11:11 PM
What I find interesting is that most of the same people who bashed DanO in the early going are the same ones expressing doubt about Wayne now.

Coincidence? I doubt it.

Honestly I don't see many people without doubts after he entrusted Royce Clayton as our starting SS.

I know this isn't what you want to hear though, but I still think he's done enough good with this roster to warrant some time.

I don't know if you realize that many people don't agree with everything Wayne does just because we tend to have some balance in our thoughts.

Just because some of us might not hate Wayne at this point doesn't mean we have the In Wayne we trust motto.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2006, 11:13 PM
Honestly I don't see many people without doubts after he entrusted Royce Clayton as our starting SS.

I know this isn't what you want to hear though, but I still think he's done enough good with this roster to warrant some time.

I don't know if you realize that many people don't agree with everything Wayne does just because we tend to have some balance in our thoughts.

Just because some of us might not hate Wayne at this point doesn't mean we have the In Wayne we trust motto.

I'm glad you have doubts about him. You are still in the minority.

edabbs44
08-01-2006, 11:17 PM
I'm glad you have doubts about him. You are still in the minority.
Too many people gave him a lifetime pass b/c of Phillips, Ross and Arroyo. I also thought we were headed in a different direction. The rest of the season has been disappointing to say the least. I'm not sure if Phillips and Ross were the luck of the draw, since some of the other acquisitions of the same type ended up being losers (C Ross and Yan). And I am still in awe of the Lohse deal. I don't think that there are many other GMs in the game make that deal, especially since he had already gotten 4 arms for the BP. Take those 4 and add Coffey and you would assume that there are 5 arms you trust at that point. No reason at all to make a potentially disasterous deal to get Lohse. And how Ryan didn't send money over with Lohse still boggles the mind.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 11:20 PM
Too many people gave him a lifetime pass b/c of Phillips, Ross and Arroyo. I also thought we were headed in a different direction. The rest of the season has been disappointing to say the least. I'm not sure if Phillips and Ross were the luck of the draw, since some of the other acquisitions of the same type ended up being losers (C Ross and Yan). And I am still in awe of the Lohse deal. I don't think that there are many other GMs in the game make that deal, especially since he had already gotten 4 arms for the BP. Take those 4 and add Coffey and you would assume that there are 5 arms you trust at that point. No reason at all to make a potentially disasterous deal to get Lohse. And how Ryan didn't send money over with Lohse still boggles the mind.

Wait a minute. Lifetime pass? I doubt it.

Some people just are willing to give his additions time. I know you think it's settled that they have failed, but I doubt people are gonna give him a lifetime pass if we fail miserably with this roster.

I'm not trying to speak for everyone, there might be people with a lifetime pass lol. Just hope people don't think anyone that isn't jumping off the cliff is not gonna criticize. I question what the hell he is doing with Edwin and Royce every friggin game.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 11:25 PM
Too many people gave him a lifetime pass b/c of Phillips, Ross and Arroyo. the thing is, they were nice trades because he gave up little for Ross and Phillips. He gave something for Arroyo but it was something this team was not in desperate need of. However, there is no way he could have known each player would have a career year to this point in the season. Instead they were prudent deals because he gave up little for a potential bigger payoff. Those are the kind of deals you look to make. Instead with the "trade" he gave up a lot for little in return. It did fill a need but a couple of more trades that deplete overall talent like that and this team will be behind the 8 ball for years.

Relief pitchers, of the type acquired are a little more than a dime a dozen(not a bat misser in the bunch). Unforunately DanO had no clue how to build a bullpen and left the team severly handicapped.

If Wayne Krivsky actually thinks guys like Clayton and Castro are useful it scares me to think what he may do in the offseason.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 11:27 PM
the thing is, they were nice trades because he gave up little for Ross and Phillips. He gave something for Arroyo but it was something this team was not in desperate need of. However, there is no way he could have known each player would have a career year to this point in the season. Instead they were prudent deals because he gave up little for a potential bigger payoff. Those are the kind of deals you look to make. Instead with the "trade" he gave up a lot for little in return. It did fill a need but a couple of more trades that deplete overall talent like that and this team will be behind the 8 ball for years.

Relief pitchers, of the type acquired are a little more than a dime a dozen(not a bat misser in the bunch). Unforunately DanO had no clue how to build a bullpen and left the team severly handicapped.

If Wayne Krivsky actually thinks guys like Clayton and Castro are useful it scares me to think what he may do in the offseason.

I'm posting a lot today, sorry for this. But I think it's more a statement of baseball tradition.

SS defense is considered the number one factor and those metrics just aren't used much still. And Terry Ryan believed in Castro also, and he's a damn good GM. Hopefully it's something Wayne can learn from and fast.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 11:33 PM
I'm posting a lot today, sorry for this. But I think it's more a statement of baseball tradition.

SS defense is considered the number one factor and those metrics just aren't used much still. And Terry Ryan believed in Castro also, and he's a damn good GM. Hopefully it's something Wayne can learn from and fast.the lesson is ify ou are going to accept an offensive black hole at a position they had better bring gold glove defense. When Minnesota gave the everyday job to Castro it still took them 2+ months to figure out the Castro gives solid defense but certainly nothing near gold glove at SS.

I do find it interesting that Minnesota took off when they cut bait on the old guys(Batista, Castro, White, Stewart(inj), moved the non producing Hunter down in the order and turned the team over to the younger guys (Cuddyer, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Bartlett, Punto, Liriano).

The Reds have been doing the exact opposite. This team might actually take off if BP went to SS, Freel to 2B, EE to 3B, Denorfia to RF, move Jr down in the order and RA move to platoon at 1b with Hatty and a fill in at the other positions three days a week and the Reds got rid of Clayton and Castro. That is Minnesota lesson to be learned.

WMR
08-01-2006, 11:36 PM
I predict more ex-Minnesota Twins in Krivsky's future.

Cyclone792
08-01-2006, 11:38 PM
The way I remember it is that there were plenty of DanO cheerleaders clear until the Reds sucked the middle of last season. His offseason when he signed Milton et al. was generally lauded by both the majority here (although the minority was very vocal, remember RFS's poll) as a great job by DanO. It wasn't until some time last May or June that many of the same people shouting his praises in the offseason were calling for his head on a platter. It was only 18 months ago when he was rather popular.

I just went back and read that entire thread, then followed that up by reading some of the original Milton thread (the 700+ post thread). I'm shocked that people thought Eric Milton was a pretty good pitcher. I'm utterly blown away that there were people who thought that the Eric Milton signing was a good signing.

Speechless, in fact.

flyer85
08-01-2006, 11:42 PM
I just went back and read that entire thread, then followed that up by reading some of the original Milton thread (the 700+ post thread). I'm shocked that people thought Eric Milton was a pretty good pitcher. I'm utterly blown away that there were people who thought that the Eric Milton signing was a good signing.

Speechless, in fact.
at the time it seemed like it was 80/20 in favor of the signing.

edabbs44
08-01-2006, 11:46 PM
Wait a minute. Lifetime pass? I doubt it.

Some people just are willing to give his additions time. I know you think it's settled that they have failed, but I doubt people are gonna give him a lifetime pass if we fail miserably with this roster.

I'm not trying to speak for everyone, there might be people with a lifetime pass lol. Just hope people don't think anyone that isn't jumping off the cliff is not gonna criticize. I question what the hell he is doing with Edwin and Royce every friggin game.
Check out how many times people say "In Wayne We Trust." This whole season people have used the Arroyo and Phillips deals as proof that he is a genius.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 11:52 PM
I just went back and read that entire thread, then followed that up by reading some of the original Milton thread (the 700+ post thread). I'm shocked that people thought Eric Milton was a pretty good pitcher. I'm utterly blown away that there were people who thought that the Eric Milton signing was a good signing.

Speechless, in fact.

It's quite odd. People were actually talking about his option year being voided by Eric :)

He might be the dumbest man alive if he optioned out.

Cedric
08-01-2006, 11:53 PM
Check out how many times people say "In Wayne We Trust." This whole season people have used the Arroyo and Phillips deals as proof that he is a genius.

Our last GM was Dan O'brien. Can't people have some time to bask in the glow of at least a few good moves :)

KronoRed
08-02-2006, 01:31 AM
at the time it seemed like it was 80/20 in favor of the signing.
I think a lot of people were just shocked the Reds spent that type of cash, most probably when looking past it saw Milton was a prayer to be any good.

Marc D
08-02-2006, 08:37 AM
I haven't read the whole thread so forgive me if I duplicate anything.

Here's my concern with Krivsky and please don't start down the kool aid drinkers vs critics road, I'm just making an observation.

What bothers me is that Kriv's to date great moves (Arroyo, Phillips, Ross, Hatteberg) are all guys having a career year that no one could have reasonably expected. Small sample size but Guardado's probably in that category as well. How much of this was skill and how much was luck? I'll buy Phillips and maybe Ross as skill but if anyone tries to tell me Kriv saw past a career's worth of numbers and foretold Hatteberg and Arroyo's years to date I'll have to disagree strongly.

The rebuilt pen is still a serious question mark with a whopping bill attached, he seems to be fond of a manager who is less than good and the two of them going foreward show signs of being a serious detriment to the development of young players.

All in all I choose to be a dissenter untill we get proof positive Krivsky's the brilliant GM he's been made out to be. Just being better than Dan O isn't enough imo.

redsmetz
08-02-2006, 09:23 AM
I haven't read the whole thread so forgive me if I duplicate anything.

Here's my concern with Krivsky and please don't start down the kool aid drinkers vs critics road, I'm just making an observation.

What bothers me is that Kriv's to date great moves (Arroyo, Phillips, Ross, Hatteberg) are all guys having a career year that no one could have reasonably expected. Small sample size but Guardado's probably in that category as well. How much of this was skill and how much was luck? I'll buy Phillips and maybe Ross as skill but if anyone tries to tell me Kriv saw past a career's worth of numbers and foretold Hatteberg and Arroyo's years to date I'll have to disagree strongly.

The rebuilt pen is still a serious question mark with a whopping bill attached, he seems to be fond of a manager who is less than good and the two of them going foreward show signs of being a serious detriment to the development of young players.

All in all I choose to be a dissenter untill we get proof positive Krivsky's the brilliant GM he's been made out to be. Just being better than Dan O isn't enough imo.

I think sometimes we're into a semantical difference. Is Krivsky brilliant? I wouldn't go that far. I said elsewhere yesterday that he came into a situation that was late in the game for a GM (just before Spring Training) and has taken an organization that was moribund at best and has thus far (and maybe by luck) been masterful in putting it in contention. That is a far cry from where the pundits expect us and it's a ways from where many of us expected us to be too.

I don't think he expected "career years" from players, but saw qualities that various players bring to the team which have proven to be a good part of what has gotten us to where we are. While many were wondering what on earth are we going to do with three 2Ber's or three catchers, etc., he has been putting together a team that can play decent baseball. Of course, much of what he has had to do was expel the dreck that DOB brought in. I think players like Rich A. and Scott H. have been a big help in keeping this team competitive. Perhaps it has been intangibles they've brought, perhaps it's having the proverbial "career year". Whatever - it's working.

Regarding the bullpen certainly remains a question, although it seems to have improved considerably since before the break. Krivsky said in this week's news conference, he wonders where we'd be if we would have had this bullpen out of the gate. Of course, it's a rhetorical question, you can't answer it.

I posed the question in this post somewhere else wanting to see what WK can do with a full off season, particularly with Bob C's clear desire to put a winning club on the field. I continue to look at this year as gravy, EVEN if we fall short, ala 1999. I see the club going in the right direction. I'm sure many of the pieces here now won't be here next year. You raise valid points. It might be luck, it might be skill, it might be tenaciousness under great duress cleaning out a garbage system. Regardless, I like where we are.

Falls City Beer
08-02-2006, 09:29 AM
Yeah, but DanO "got" the Reds over .500 into late June in 2004. But then he didn't make any corresponding trades to improve the club.

Krivsky tried to make those trades, but failed utterly. In fact, as good as his early trades were, his recent trades have been just as bad.

osuceltic
08-02-2006, 11:27 AM
I haven't read the whole thread so forgive me if I duplicate anything.

Here's my concern with Krivsky and please don't start down the kool aid drinkers vs critics road, I'm just making an observation.

What bothers me is that Kriv's to date great moves (Arroyo, Phillips, Ross, Hatteberg) are all guys having a career year that no one could have reasonably expected. Small sample size but Guardado's probably in that category as well. How much of this was skill and how much was luck? I'll buy Phillips and maybe Ross as skill but if anyone tries to tell me Kriv saw past a career's worth of numbers and foretold Hatteberg and Arroyo's years to date I'll have to disagree strongly.

The rebuilt pen is still a serious question mark with a whopping bill attached, he seems to be fond of a manager who is less than good and the two of them going foreward show signs of being a serious detriment to the development of young players.

All in all I choose to be a dissenter untill we get proof positive Krivsky's the brilliant GM he's been made out to be. Just being better than Dan O isn't enough imo.
The difference here, is you're looking at the stats of the players he has acquired and saying "no one could have expected this." Krivsky isn't just looking at the stats. He has scouts following these players. He has scouted these players himself. He has talked to scouts, players and GMs. Maybe he came to the conclusion that guys like Ross and Phillips just needed to play every day. Maybe he felt Arroyo would fare better in a smaller market or as the leader of a pitching staff. Those are the kinds of things a good GM has to consider. He's not just looking at stats and predicting what will happen. He's doing his homework, scouting, collecting information and making informed decisions.

I find it ludicrous to discount the Arroyo, Phillips, Ross and Hatteberg acquisitions. I can understand the criticisms of the Kearns-Lopez trade. I don't agree, but I can understand them. The thing people discount in that discussion is the 16 games before the deadline. Could he have waited for a better deal? Probably, but the season could have slipped away in that time. I don't understand how anyone can be all worked up over any of the other bullpen moves. I really don't. We've given away nothing in those deals. Maybe they work out, maybe they don't. But other than the Kearns-Lopez deal, which is arguable, I really don't understand the complaining.

This franchise has been losing so long, the fans have adopted a losing mentality. Krivsky won't bat 1.000, but take a deep breath and look at the big picture.

flyer85
08-02-2006, 11:30 AM
Krivsky's early acquisitions were good not just because of the results but at a more basic level they were low risk higher reward deals, the kind you want to make. "The trade" was high risk low reward. You had better limit those types to few and far between.

Krusty
08-02-2006, 01:45 PM
Why don't we wait till the end of the season before judging all Krivsky's moves?

flyer85
08-02-2006, 01:47 PM
Why don't we wait till the end of the season before judging all Krivsky's moves?why not wait until 5 years from now when most of the data will be in and we will have almost perfect hindsight.

edabbs44
08-02-2006, 02:35 PM
Why don't we wait till the end of the season before judging all Krivsky's moves?
B/c it's more fun doing it this way. :D

Marc D
08-02-2006, 03:57 PM
why not wait until 5 years from now when most of the data will be in and we will have almost perfect hindsight.

Exactly. I prefer to give my .02 upfront and live with being right, wrong or indifferent as things play out.

I like Krivsky and he does give me hope for our future. That said, no one is beyond reproach and I don't see why we even have forums like this if its not to discuss both the good and bad of every move made by our favorite team.

Be kind of a boring place if we all had blind faith in the leadership, asked no questions and just sat back and enjoyed the ride as some seem so adamant we should do. Standing up and saying that the emporer might not be fully clothed doesn't mean a person isn't enjoying the season.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2006, 04:18 PM
Exactly. I prefer to give my .02 upfront and live with being right, wrong or indifferent as things play out.

I like Krivsky and he does give me hope for our future. That said, no one is beyond reproach and I don't see why we even have forums like this if its not to discuss both the good and bad of every move made by our favorite team.

Be kind of a boring place if we all had blind faith in the leadership, asked no questions and just sat back and enjoyed the ride as some seem so adamant we should do. Standing up and saying that the emporer might not be fully clothed doesn't mean a person isn't enjoying the season.

My thoughts exactly. Well said.

VR
08-02-2006, 04:55 PM
The world of judging GM's has changed drastically over the last 10 years, primarily with the advent of fire sales. All trades are not created equal, so there are winners and losers on different levels, not just talent.

That said, Wayne certainly seems to have a broader comprehension of the big picture.

A balanced team as opposed to loading up on 5 toolers at all levels has me more optimistic than the Bowden regime.

Having an ownership that is willing to spend $ should favor him greatly, but will also put him on a shorter leash in the short term.

The only real test in the offseason will be his ability to do 2 things.

1. Acquire a Schmidt type starter to stick behind Harang as the #2.

2. Unload at least 2 of the Milton/Griffey/LaRue albatross contracts.

After that, the minutia of acquiring players 22-25 on the roster will be pretty standard biz.

registerthis
08-02-2006, 04:58 PM
at the time it seemed like it was 80/20 in favor of the signing.

is there a link to that thread? I searched the archives and couldn't find it. I'm blind, maybe?

Cyclone792
08-02-2006, 04:59 PM
is there a link to that thread? I searched the archives and couldn't find it. I'm blind, maybe?

Enjoy!

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30686

KronoRed
08-02-2006, 05:06 PM
That's funny :D

registerthis
08-02-2006, 05:14 PM
Enjoy!

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30686

Muchos gracias!

Funny stuff, I went to read it to see what Ih ad said and realized I hadn't yet registered with the site when this trade went down. Ah well, I'm sure I would have HATED it at the time. :)

KoryMac5
08-02-2006, 05:54 PM
Yeah, but DanO "got" the Reds over .500 into late June in 2004. But then he didn't make any corresponding trades to improve the club.

Krivsky tried to make those trades, but failed utterly. In fact, as good as his early trades were, his recent trades have been just as bad.

I disagree with this point. If we look at the recent trades some have worked while others have left us wanting more. To get Everyday from Seattle was a very good move by Wayne and I feel that Rheal and Bray will pay big dividends down the stretch. I agree that the Reds gave up too much for Lohse as I feel Ward was going to be a good one down the road. And Maj and Clayton well that's a topic that might crash the board. My point is don't lump everything together, grade the man on the moves he makes seperately. I think you will find that overall he is passing with a B average, not bad for a first year GM.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2006, 10:46 AM
Enjoy!

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30686

Great read.

Several posts with objective stats to back up how bad of a deal this was, followed by a plethora of posts proclaiming what a great deal it was (without any data except W/L to back it up) and, of course, chastising anyone that provided objective analysis that didn't paint a pretty picture of the deal, saying that some people will never be happy and all our fans do is complain...blah blah blah.

Sound familiar?

Krusty
08-03-2006, 11:38 AM
At least Krivsky is aggressive and will go out and make those deals that he feels can help the Reds win. That is better than what Dan O'Brien did. At the same time, Krivsky didn't part with any of the Reds top 10 prospects, which shows he is committed to building the Reds for the longhaul.

Sure he is going to have a few deals that won't pan out but I'm willing to bet that 75 percent of all his trades will be a success.

REDREAD
08-03-2006, 06:27 PM
. No reason at all to make a potentially disasterous deal to get Lohse. And how Ryan didn't send money over with Lohse still boggles the mind.

Louse was acquired to be the #5 starter. I really wish we could've gotten someone better, and I'm not crazy about it.

Due to Claussen's health, Wayne was forced to get somebody after Gernamo was traded. I just wish he could've gotten someone better.

So the real quesiton is: Is picking up Cormier worth having Louse in the rotation instead of Gernamo?

RANDY IN INDY
08-03-2006, 06:33 PM
That all depends on how the young man pitches, and we're about to find out.

REDREAD
08-03-2006, 06:33 PM
I'm utterly blown away that there were people who thought that the Eric Milton signing was a good signing.

Speechless, in fact.

I confess. I liked the Milton signing at the time. Despite all the evidence to the contrary that I read. I was desparate for some hope to cling to, so logic went out the window.

I imagine a lot of other posters felt the same. You get emotionally attached to the team. You want them to get better, so you cling on to the hope that every move helps the team.

paulrichjr
08-03-2006, 11:35 PM
Too many of his deals are turning out to be odd in my mind. I don't understand any of the deals since the Eddie G trade. Yes we needed to make trades but how many relievers did we need and at what cost? He has destroyed the offense so now we don't even need a bullpen because we can't score runs. Frankly he has made some good trades but even his coup - Arroyo - is starting to look suspect the way he has been pitching. I had faith in him until the last couple of moves - now I am very nervous about this winter.

Spitball
08-04-2006, 12:27 AM
Too many of his deals are turning out to be odd in my mind. I don't understand any of the deals since the Eddie G trade. Yes we needed to make trades but how many relievers did we need and at what cost? He has destroyed the offense so now we don't even need a bullpen because we can't score runs. Frankly he has made some good trades but even his coup - Arroyo - is starting to look suspect the way he has been pitching. I had faith in him until the last couple of moves - now I am very nervous about this winter.

Maybe...but I've long felt the Reds would never be a consistent, professional type team until they got past the promise of the Kearns, Lopez, and Pena type players. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see Kearns, Lopez or Pena being players on the teams of the Seventies and that makes a difference to me. I want the Reds to build on players that play the game the way Pete Rose did or Joe Morgan. Kearns, Lopez and Pena were not those kind of players. They had promise but they were not the kind of players to build a consistent team aound. They had huge holes in their mechanics, swings, or desires.

The Reds of the Seventies built a legacy around certain types of players. They were players who had a certain character that Bob Howsam was either lucky enough to inherit or smart enough to acquire. They played hard and they played smart. They were winners. I honestly believe the Reds finally have a front office that has a vision beyond ego and beyond indecision.

Spring~Fields
08-04-2006, 01:11 AM
Too many of his deals are turning out to be odd in my mind. I don't understand any of the deals since the Eddie G trade. Yes we needed to make trades but how many relievers did we need and at what cost? He has destroyed the offense so now we don't even need a bullpen because we can't score runs. Frankly he has made some good trades but even his coup - Arroyo - is starting to look suspect the way he has been pitching. I had faith in him until the last couple of moves - now I am very nervous about this winter.

Krivsky's deals look odd because he is rebuilding the team, in my opinion.

Since Krivsky came to the Reds late he has been evaluating available talent and trying to build his pitching staff. When he came to the Reds he found that the Reds had one decent starter in Harang and basically no bullpen. Krivsky obviously knew that he didnít have a team with a large budget or a team deep in talent in the minors, which limits the directions that he could turn to execute his strategies for turning the franchise around. So he has had to trade off offensive players, back them up with reasonably cheap backup, bench type players while trying to build his pitching staff for the next season.

I assume that Krivsky, Castellini and no one else thought that this team would achieve very much competitively this year because of their pitching and other limited resource/talent constraints. They havenít, with most of what appears to be successes coming early in April and holding their own at a below .500 level since May against a weak National League this season. I think that he will continue to off load some of the expensive or offensive talent that he sees as inconsistent or tradable in an attempt to boost his starting pitching in the off season and continue to backfill with the types of players that he has acquired to date until he is able to bring in better offensive players where possible in 2008.

dougdirt
08-04-2006, 01:18 AM
At least Krivsky is aggressive and will go out and make those deals that he feels can help the Reds win. That is better than what Dan O'Brien did. At the same time, Krivsky didn't part with any of the Reds top 10 prospects, which shows he is committed to building the Reds for the longhaul.

Sure he is going to have a few deals that won't pan out but I'm willing to bet that 75 percent of all his trades will be a success.

I will argue that the Reds did part with a top 10 prospect, or even 2 in Travis Chick and in Zach Ward. Chick was in BA preseason top 10 list for the Reds, and Ward began the season at #13 without throwing a pitch for the Reds system, I bet any money that he was a top 10 guy when he was traded, although Chick might not have been.

I dont really like what Dano did for the major league team, but he also wasnt trading the few peices of talent we had for middle relief pitching.

membengal
08-04-2006, 08:46 AM
Get more former Twins. ;)

I am thinking he deals Dunn to Minnesota for Jesse Crain and then deals Crain to Washington for Cristian Guzman.

It's GOLD, Jerry! GOLD!

paulrichjr
08-04-2006, 11:57 AM
Maybe...but I've long felt the Reds would never be a consistent, professional type team until they got past the promise of the Kearns, Lopez, and Pena type players. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see Kearns, Lopez or Pena being players on the teams of the Seventies and that makes a difference to me. I want the Reds to build on players that play the game the way Pete Rose did or Joe Morgan. Kearns, Lopez and Pena were not those kind of players. They had promise but they were not the kind of players to build a consistent team aound. They had huge holes in their mechanics, swings, or desires.

The Reds of the Seventies built a legacy around certain types of players. They were players who had a certain character that Bob Howsam was either lucky enough to inherit or smart enough to acquire. They played hard and they played smart. They were winners. I honestly believe the Reds finally have a front office that has a vision beyond ego and beyond indecision.

I do not believe that a top GM does what Krivs did with two big pieces like Kearns and Lopez. I do not believe a top GM goes out and gets Loeshe at the deadline when Maddux could be had for probably what he gave up for the two relievers we got that we didn't need. He filled holes that we didn't need filling at the end and made some new ones with the Nats deal. He is starting to scare me.

Spitball
08-04-2006, 01:43 PM
I do not believe that a top GM does what Krivs did with two big pieces like Kearns and Lopez.

Bob Howsam traded Lee May and Tommy Helms, both bigger pieces than either Kearns or Lopez, to improve the team's speed and defense. At the time of the trade, it appeared as though the Reds had given up way too much talent. In retrospect, the trade transformed the team into a dynasty.



I do not believe a top GM goes out and gets Loeshe at the deadline when Maddux could be had for probably what he gave up for the two relievers we got that we didn't need.

I have seen no proof that the Cubs would have dealt Maddux to just any team. I don't know if there was a no trade clause or a gentleman's agreement, but it appears as though San Diego and Dodgers were the only teams discussed as possible destinations for Maddux. Besides, why would you trade such "big pieces" to a division rival for a two month rental? To me, that would be very scary.

KronoRed
08-04-2006, 02:31 PM
I am thinking he deals Dunn to Minnesota for Jesse Crain and then deals Crain to Washington for Cristian Guzman.

It's GOLD, Jerry! GOLD!
I seriously fear Guzman showing up here next spring, after the Nats release him.

paulrichjr
08-04-2006, 10:13 PM
Bob Howsam traded Lee May and Tommy Helms, both bigger pieces than either Kearns or Lopez, to improve the team's speed and defense. At the time of the trade, it appeared as though the Reds had given up way too much talent. In retrospect, the trade transformed the team into a dynasty.




I have seen no proof that the Cubs would have dealt Maddux to just any team. I don't know if there was a no trade clause or a gentleman's agreement, but it appears as though San Diego and Dodgers were the only teams discussed as possible destinations for Maddux. Besides, why would you trade such "big pieces" to a division rival for a two month rental? To me, that would be very scary.


If this turns out to be a Bob Howsam deal then great but those happen very rarely. Krivs has gotten his honeymoon phase now lets be real...if DanO had made the same deals that Krivs just made you and everyone here would be demanding for his dismissal. I was willing to believe in him "even after" the Kearns/Lopez deal but those last two deals just seem like he tried to do something for the sake of doing something. I hope Loshe pitches lights out on Sunday but I honestly believe that Germano would have done better on Sunday than him. And be honest...Don't you?

edabbs44
08-04-2006, 10:46 PM
I confess. I liked the Milton signing at the time. Despite all the evidence to the contrary that I read. I was desparate for some hope to cling to, so logic went out the window.

I imagine a lot of other posters felt the same. You get emotionally attached to the team. You want them to get better, so you cling on to the hope that every move helps the team.
I will say that I liked the Milton signing for one reason a dn one reason only...they finally got a pitcher that other teams wanted. I thought they spent way too much $ on him, but I was happy that he wasn't a 39 yr old coming off major shoulder surgery.

Now for the confession.......I thought they should have tried harder for Pavano.

edabbs44
08-04-2006, 10:48 PM
I do not believe that a top GM does what Krivs did with two big pieces like Kearns and Lopez. I do not believe a top GM goes out and gets Loeshe at the deadline when Maddux could be had for probably what he gave up for the two relievers we got that we didn't need. He filled holes that we didn't need filling at the end and made some new ones with the Nats deal. He is starting to scare me.
Yep. Maddux would have been a huge acquisition. Except the Cubbies may not have dealt him to Cincy.

SteelSD
08-05-2006, 01:21 AM
Bob Howsam traded Lee May and Tommy Helms, both bigger pieces than either Kearns or Lopez, to improve the team's speed and defense. At the time of the trade, it appeared as though the Reds had given up way too much talent. In retrospect, the trade transformed the team into a dynasty.

Tommy Helms a bigger piece than either Kearns or Lopez? No.

The Reds traded Lee May and a couple completely replaceable commodities for a high OBP Second Baseman (Morgan), a league-average SP (Billingham), and a useful defensive-minded Center Fielder (Geronimo) who posted his best offensive seasons during his age-prime years.

That trade is a great lesson about how to swap low IsoD players moving out of their age-prime years for younger players who project much better value. And as to your defensive upgrade point- when that trade went down, Tommy Helms was the only player involved who had a Gold Glove on his mantle.

If the Reds produced such a return for Kearns and Lopez, I would be perfectly content. But they didn't. There was no high-OBP proven projectible MLG middle infielder in the deal. The Reds didn't get anything resembling 200 MLB-average IP. The didn't get any young defensive whiz kid. What they got was 75-80 IP of mediocre, 60 IP of promising, and a bunch of chaff. Meanwhile, the Nationals have improved their Run Diff since the trade- yes, even while jettisoning two relievers whom the Reds now count on to protect leads:

2006 Pre-ASB:

Washington RS/G: 4.52
Washington RA/G: 5.22

Cincinnati RS/G: 5.03
Cincinnati RA/G: 5.20

2006 Post-ASB:

Washington RS/G: 5.31
Washington RA/G: 5.00

Cincinnati RS/G: 4.25
Cincinnati RA/G: 4.65

Washington is pitching better post-trade and they're scoring a lot more- much of it due to the .400+ OBP produced by Lopez and Kearns. Cincinnati is pitching better- and literally none of that is due to the Innings represented by Majewski and Bray in combination. The Nats went from bad offense and bad pitching to great offense and improved bad pitching. The Reds went from good offense and bad pitching to to bad offense and below-average pitching. That isn't enough. Neither is enough to contend, but the former is enough to project a record better than .500. The latter, unfortunately, isn't.

buckeyenut
08-05-2006, 06:49 AM
Steel,

How do you measure the impact of having two more solid arms on the rest of the bullpen?

Before the deals, Coffey was really the only reliable arm in the pen. But he was ineffective because he was being overused. With the guys we picked up, Coffey, Weathers, Standridge and others can be much more effective because they can be used in the right situations rather than being forced to be put in situations where they are over their heads.

Other than bullpen ERA, is there any good way to try and measure that and the extra value you get from the deal in that perspective?

Krusty
08-06-2006, 09:05 AM
If this turns out to be a Bob Howsam deal then great but those happen very rarely. Krivs has gotten his honeymoon phase now lets be real...if DanO had made the same deals that Krivs just made you and everyone here would be demanding for his dismissal. I was willing to believe in him "even after" the Kearns/Lopez deal but those last two deals just seem like he tried to do something for the sake of doing something. I hope Loshe pitches lights out on Sunday but I honestly believe that Germano would have done better on Sunday than him. And be honest...Don't you?

We really won't know the true impact of Krivsky deals till the 2007 season when most of his acquisitions had a full season together. Would have the Reds won more ballgames if they had Guardado, Majeski, Bray and Loshe at the beginning of the season? Would the Reds have had as many errors on the left side of the infield if the Reds had Royce Clayton from the start instead of Felipe Lopez?

Alot of ifs but I would like to see these guys together for an entire season before I start seriously questioning Krivsky's deals.