Joseph

08-01-2006, 12:00 PM

Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.4 84.4 79.0 74.8 70.1 64.3

NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs

Cardinals 58 46 .480 87.8 74.2 62.80629 18.18193 80.98822

Reds 55 50 .502 85.4 76.6 34.24460 27.28291 61.52751

Brewers 50 56 .456 77.2 84.8 1.71562 2.84155 4.55717

Astros 49 56 .454 76.2 85.8 1.20014 2.04517 3.24531

Cubs 43 62 .442 70.0 92.0 .03242 .05518 .08760

Pirates 40 66 .427 65.2 96.8 .00093 .00045 .00138

From Baseball Prospectus:

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte

Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,

losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted

Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3

from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the

rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning

percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal

distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used

for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%

home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the

visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is

determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the

regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the

championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5

championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25

for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs

Cardinals 58 46 .480 87.8 74.2 62.80629 18.18193 80.98822

Reds 55 50 .502 85.4 76.6 34.24460 27.28291 61.52751

Brewers 50 56 .456 77.2 84.8 1.71562 2.84155 4.55717

Astros 49 56 .454 76.2 85.8 1.20014 2.04517 3.24531

Cubs 43 62 .442 70.0 92.0 .03242 .05518 .08760

Pirates 40 66 .427 65.2 96.8 .00093 .00045 .00138

From Baseball Prospectus:

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte

Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,

losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted

Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3

from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the

rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning

percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal

distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used

for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%

home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the

visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is

determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the

regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the

championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5

championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25

for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!