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Joseph
08-01-2006, 12:00 PM
Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.4 84.4 79.0 74.8 70.1 64.3
NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Cardinals 58 46 .480 87.8 74.2 62.80629 18.18193 80.98822
Reds 55 50 .502 85.4 76.6 34.24460 27.28291 61.52751
Brewers 50 56 .456 77.2 84.8 1.71562 2.84155 4.55717
Astros 49 56 .454 76.2 85.8 1.20014 2.04517 3.24531
Cubs 43 62 .442 70.0 92.0 .03242 .05518 .08760
Pirates 40 66 .427 65.2 96.8 .00093 .00045 .00138

From Baseball Prospectus:
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3
from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the
rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning
percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal
distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used
for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%
home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the
visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

fielder's choice
08-01-2006, 12:10 PM
Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??

flyer85
08-01-2006, 12:12 PM
Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??Harry and Lloyd are probably laying money on 'em right now.

tripleaaaron
08-01-2006, 01:14 PM
do you have the adjusted percentages for the other wild card possibles? we are 60% likely to win the wild-card, correct? are these adjusted based on trade deadline?

flyer85
08-01-2006, 01:16 PM
do you have the adjusted percentages for the other wild card possibles? we are 60% likely to win the wild-card, correct? are these adjusted based on trade deadline?34 to win the division and 27 to win the wildcard.

Reverend Doo-Rag
08-01-2006, 01:20 PM
[code]the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times.

I used to have a 1974 Monte Carlo with a 350. Does that count?

max venable
08-01-2006, 01:34 PM
Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??
http://www.homevideos.com/freezeframes1203/dumb144.jpeg

mbgrayson
08-22-2006, 01:21 AM
In case anyone is interested, there are 3 cool sites to bookmark as the Reds stay in the playoff hunt.

First of all, here is a link to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php). It is updated every morning.

There is another playoff odds site, that uses a different calculation method. It is called Cool Standings, and is is located HERE (http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1.com).

Then there is the Magic Number....Our Magic Number to win the division (against St. Louis) is now 41. For the Wild Card against the Padres and Phillies it is 36. The Magic Number is the number of combined Reds wins and opponent losses needed to make the playoffs. Here is a good Magic Number site (http://www.magicnumbers.org/magic.php?division=nlc&year=2006)that calculates Magic Numbers...

These sites are fun to watch when the Reds win, as you can the odds go up, and the Magic Number drop.

Mike

oregonred
08-22-2006, 02:30 AM
Nice links

Cubs still had a 1/2200 chance as of this morning. See the billy goat jinx is just a myth :)

redsmetz
08-22-2006, 08:28 AM
I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.

I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning.

Thanks.

MrCinatit
08-22-2006, 08:57 AM
I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.

I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning.

Thanks.

*Gives sheepish look from the back of the class*
Whew. Thought I was the only one.

wheels
08-22-2006, 09:02 AM
You folks might wanna check out the archives.

I think someone made huge threads that sum up some of things discussed around here over the years, and statistics was definitely one of them.

I'd post links for ya, but I'm on my way out the door.

redsmetz
08-22-2006, 09:32 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31264&highlight=statistics

This looks like the archived info, although I'm not sure it explains it fully.

dfs
08-22-2006, 10:04 AM
Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.

They played out the rest of the season via simulation a million times. The easy and important numbers are the last three columns.

1st column is name of the club.
2nd is how many wins they have to date.
3rd is how many losses to date.
I'm not confident what the 4th collumn is. If you really want to know, I could ask Clay. He doesn't really give enough information. My guess is that it's the simulations estimate about that teams expected winning percentage for the rest of the year.
The fifth column is the number of wins the simulation expects the reds to have at the end of the year.
The sixth column is the number of losses the simulation expects the reds to have at the end of the year.
The seventh column is the percentage chance the team has of winning the division according to the simulation.
The eighth column is the percentage chance the team has of winning the wildcard according to the simulation.
The last column is the percentage chance the team has of going to the post season.

FWIW despite the winning streak, via this method as of today the reds are about a 50-50 proposition to make the post season.

The next couple of series and the west coast trip should clear things up far more than any simulation can.

redsmetz
08-22-2006, 10:41 AM
Thanks, DFS.

Cyclone792
08-22-2006, 11:41 AM
I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.

dfs answered the questions pretty well.

The 4th column is very complex, and I think I know what it is, but there's a slight chance I could be wrong. I beileve it is called "Third Order Wins," which is based on a bunch of factors. First, BP calculates how many wins we should have given our Equivalent Runs Scored and Equivalent Runs Against (those are BP stats for how many runs we should have scored/allowed so far). Then they mix in a strength of schedule factor and adjust the Equivalent Runs Scored/Against appropriately. Finally, a home-field advantage factor and regression to the mean factor is applied to finally spit out the winning percentage you now see.

You're probably wondering, "well, what is the point of all that?" It's simply to identify teams which may have a slightly better chance than others to perform a bit better based on their current performance to date. A real case example is the Dodgers recent surge, which really isn't surprising at all. IIRC, before LA's surge, BP had them pegged as having a good chance to go on a run and leap out in front. It doesn't mean it was going to happen, but they had better odds of doing that than say ... the Padres or Diamondbacks.


I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning.

Thanks.

This is something that I've thought about doing, but the problem is just a lack of time for doing it thoroughly and correctly. The thorough answers which would help people really understand some of the sabermetric stats are just longer than two or three sentence descriptions.

Perhaps during the offseason when things slow down I may be able to put something like that together, but I can't make any promises! I do plan on bringing the RedsZone HOF polls back up in the offseason, though.