PDA

View Full Version : Trying To Rationalize



Moonlite Graham
08-06-2006, 04:40 PM
Ill preface this by saying I know its probably being discussed ad nauseum on other threads but....

I rarely ever post after a loss, and have for the most part have had relative tolerance with most of Narron's moves....but today's game has me totally flummoxed.

I think we all went into todays game with the idea that with Smoltz pitching against Lohse, our chances of winning were probably remote. But nevertheless all the stars were lining up for us to not only get what really amounts to a "bonus win" of the course of a season, when you consider what we were going against and also sweep a series and provide major momentum going into a big series with the Cardinals.

But it was almost like Narron's thought process was...oh well we arent supposed to win this game anyway why not run "The Walking Talking Batting Tee" Gary Majewski out there late in the game and take our chance. And then when the inevitable happens, spin it into...."oh well we won the series".

A week or so ago Narron said he would never again make decisions based on his heart, I think thats exactly what he did today, trying in vain to restore the confidence of someone who has none and flat out giving away the game in the process.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong?

Moon

wojo1025
08-06-2006, 04:51 PM
I was really really hoping that when Maj came in with the bases full, threw 1 pitch and got out of the inning, I was hoping that sparked something inside the kid and got him going. Unfortunately I just do not think that's possible at this point in the year. I truly believe he's just out of gas. As I mentioned in the game thread, he is try to hard to force the ball to the plate rather than just gearing back and throwing. He looks beat. I don't know if it was all the innings in Was, or the fact that he started his season early this year (WBC) but he looks tired. DL him for a while and try and get that arm some rest!

Narron makes two to three decisions per game that leave me scratching my head, I'm kinda use to that at this point in the season. I will say, however, that as soon as Maj came into the game, he should've had Coff warming up. Maj just hasn't been reliable since the trade and there is no way you should put all your eggs in that basket. By having Maj pitch the 8th with noone warming up, that is exactly what Narron did. He decided that he was going to win or lose this game with Maj and that, so far this year, is a horrible thing to do.

GOREDSGO32
08-06-2006, 04:55 PM
Who knows dude, this Majeski guy has hurt us so much. This trade is looking so lopsided, I have no clue what was going through Krivsky's mind when he made it.

wojo1025
08-06-2006, 04:57 PM
Who knows dude, this Majeski guy has hurt us so much. This trade is looking so lopsided, I have no clue what was going through Krivsky's mind when he made it.


What a wonderful, well thought out response

reds44
08-06-2006, 04:58 PM
Don't try to rationalize what Narron does. You'll try to think like him and only end up being strangely attracted to mid-30 year old men.

Tom Servo
08-06-2006, 05:13 PM
It's ridiculous how much flak Jerry gets here when a player doesn't perform well, and how little credit (read: none) he gets when the player does.

We lost today because Gary Majewski didn't pitch well. Quite simple, really.

IslandRed
08-06-2006, 05:17 PM
A week or so ago Narron said he would never again make decisions based on his heart, I think thats exactly what he did today, trying in vain to restore the confidence of someone who has none and flat out giving away the game in the process.

Sounds as reasonable as any. Given how Majewski's pitched, it's questionable to use him in a high-leverage situation at all and if they do, it's got to be on a short leash. There's no justification for not having someone ready to come in after giving up hits to the first two hitters in the eighth.


Who knows dude, this Majeski guy has hurt us so much. This trade is looking so lopsided, I have no clue what was going through Krivsky's mind when he made it.

I think he expected to get the Majewski that had been pitching prior to the trade. People made some good arguments that he wasn't all that special, really just an average bullpen guy, but average is one thing and awful is another.

Always Red
08-06-2006, 05:20 PM
It's ridiculous how much flak Jerry gets here when a player doesn't perform well, and how little credit (read: none) he gets when the player does.

We lost today because Gary Majewski didn't pitch well. Quite simple, really.
I agree, Tom. Jerry Narron has lost 54 games by himself this year, and the Reds have won 57, in spite of Narron's coaching those games.

I think the Narron criticism is a little extreme. I wonder how Sparky would fare in today's internet world of instant feedback?

TeamBoone
08-06-2006, 05:21 PM
We lost today because Gary Majewski didn't pitch well. Quite simple, really.

Exactly! And with Majic's track record with the Reds, that's precisely the reason JN should not have put him into today's tight game. If JN really REALLY had the urge to pitch him, no matter what, at least put him in early. That way, at least the team has some time to get back the runs you just KNOW he's going to give up.

Not only that, he put him in without having anyone warming up... again, based on his track record, it's a no brainer that someone should be ready to go if need (because there's an extremely good possibility that they're going to be needed... in a hurry).

ChatterRed
08-06-2006, 05:24 PM
Anyone with a brain knew not to put Mewjewski in that situation. He may be a good pitcher, but his confidence is lacking and possibly his arm is tired.

We had a chance to win that game today and Narron possibly lost it by going to the confidence lacking pitcher.

traderumor
08-06-2006, 05:27 PM
Sinker ballers who can't make the ball sink get lit up big time. See Danny Graves. Majewski needs 7-10 days off with some side work only or an inning of mopup if available. That seems to be a no-brainer prescription at this point, but I guess we'll see.

jnwohio
08-06-2006, 07:23 PM
I was a little bit surprised not that JN used Majik but that he left him in after the 1st two reached in the 8th because up to that point he had been managing like it was the 7th game of the World Series (and I do NOT fault him for that attitude at thias point).

Prior to the inning I figured Majik would be sent out to start it but would probably face only Jones or only stay in until somebody reached on him; and then they would bring on Cormier or Stormy, depending on if the next batter was a leftie or a rightie.

I guess with Guardado so iffy, he maybe was holding Cormier and Stormy for the ninth; but it does no good to hold them if you can get there. The other consideration is that he has to have a pen for the Cardinal series; so some of the guys had to be held back today I guess.

I thought the entire 8th inning had some strangeness to it. On the triple, it looked like they had Hatte behind the runner and off the line despite there being no outs. Then Denorfia let the ball get by him; and that was huge because if he comes up with it cleanly it looked like the Braves were about to hold the 2nd runner at 3rd. At the worst, if Denorfia comes up with it cleanly the score is tied with the lead run still at 2nd.

If the Reds end up a game short somebody is going to bring this one up as the one that got away from them.

reds44
08-06-2006, 07:24 PM
I was a little bit surprised not that JN used Majik but that he left him in after the 1st two reached in the 8th because up to that point he had been managing like it was the 7th game of the World Series (and I do NOT fault him for that attitude at thias point).

Prior to the inning I figured Majik would be sent out to start it but would probably face only Jones or only stay in until somebody reached on him; and then they would bring on Cormier or Stormy, depending on if the next batter was a leftie or a rightie.

I guess with Guardado so iffy, he maybe was holding Cormier and Stormy for the ninth; but it does no good to hold them if you can get there. The other consideration is that he has to have a pen for the Cardinal series; so some of the guys had to be held back today I guess.

I thought the entire 8th inning had some strangeness to it. On the triple, it looked like they had Hatte behind the runner and off the line despite there being no outs. Then Denorfia let the ball get by him; and that was huge because if he comes up with it cleanly it looked like the Braves were about to hold the 2nd runner at 3rd. At the worst, if Denorfia comes up with it cleanly the score is tied with the lead run still at 2nd.

If the Reds end up a game short somebody is going to bring this one up as the one that got away from them.
Cormier and Weathers were not available. It was either Magic or Coffey for the 8th.

KalDanielsfan
08-06-2006, 07:37 PM
*stays silent for once*

RedEye
08-06-2006, 08:14 PM
What a wonderful, well thought out response

And what a wonderful, well thought out response to the response. Jeez, wojo... where do you get off slamming anyone who posts any kind of doubt about the trade? It's almost like you are the Trade police, out there to make sure that no one critiques Wayne's lopsided deal... and if they do, it better be "well thought-out" or they don't have the right to be a Reds fan. Gimme a freakin' break.

Still smarting,

RedEye

Ltlabner
08-06-2006, 08:28 PM
And what a wonderful, well thought out response to the response. Jeez, wojo... where do you get off slamming anyone who posts any kind of doubt about the trade? It's almost like you are the Trade police, out there to make sure that no one critiques Wayne's lopsided deal... and if they do, it better be "well thought-out" or they don't have the right to be a Reds fan. Gimme a freakin' break.

Wow, it's almost like there are some "Anti-trade Police" out there. That if people are tired of hearing how this is the worst trade in the history of baseball, and dare to comment on it, they are in big trouble. And if said poster finds posts made after a loss that are likely just emotional outbursts, they are not allowed to critique them.

You have a perfect right to hate the trade and comment on it. Just don't forget that others have a perfect right to comment on your posts. The door swings both ways.

TeamBoone
08-06-2006, 08:48 PM
I think we all went into todays game with the idea that with Smoltz pitching against Lohse, our chances of winning were probably remote.

I don't know about everyone else, but I didn't think that at all. The Reds often seem to do quite well against the better pitchers (though I hold Smoltz in such high esteem as most do).

The Reds had the momentum and the guys seem to have the right attitude. If not for JN's pitching decision, I think the Reds would have won this one hands down.

I don't like saying things like this, but today, I totally blame him (JN). He had a trackrecord to work with but paid absolutely no attention and didn't even have a backup plan (someone warming). Too bad he can't be benched for this blatant error and not managing the game efficiently by doing the "little things" right. He had no business bringing in GM in the 8th with only a 2-run lead... absolutely no business.

Hmmmm. After posting, I realized that I had already responded on this thread. Sorry for doing so again. I'm a bit flummoxed too. The management of this particular game has me rattled and a tad bit bitter.

Ltlabner
08-06-2006, 09:08 PM
I don't like saying things like this, but today, I totally blame him (JN). He had a trackrecord to work with but paid absolutely no attention and didn't even have a backup plan (someone warming). Too bad he can't be benched for this blatant error and not managing the game efficiently by doing the "little things" right. He had no business bringing in GM in the 8th with only a 2-run lead... absolutely no business.

I am judging by what I heard on the Breneman report and these threads that Narron left Magic in several pitches too long.

To me, this is the really issue with Narron we should be talking about. EE/RA and linup construction is mearly window dressing.

His lack of understanding with regards to pitching is a big problem that we should address asap. That's what will cost us real games in the future.

VR
08-06-2006, 09:14 PM
Any concerns about the Reds bats taking yet another 6 inning hiatus?

RedEye
08-06-2006, 09:56 PM
Wow, it's almost like there are some "Anti-trade Police" out there. That if people are tired of hearing how this is the worst trade in the history of baseball, and dare to comment on it, they are in big trouble. And if said poster finds posts made after a loss that are likely just emotional outbursts, they are not allowed to critique them.

You have a perfect right to hate the trade and comment on it. Just don't forget that others have a perfect right to comment on your posts. The door swings both ways.

Of course the door swings both ways. And it will continue to swing both ways until the Reds drop from contention this year... or until they don't. I just don't admire pots who call the kettle black, that's all. If you're going to say quite sarcastically that someone has a "well thought out" argument, then you better offer one yourself. Fair is fair.

wojo1025
08-06-2006, 10:01 PM
And what a wonderful, well thought out response to the response. Jeez, wojo... where do you get off slamming anyone who posts any kind of doubt about the trade? It's almost like you are the Trade police, out there to make sure that no one critiques Wayne's lopsided deal... and if they do, it better be "well thought-out" or they don't have the right to be a Reds fan. Gimme a freakin' break.

Still smarting,

RedEye

IF you knew the beef between the two of us, you wouldn't be posting. That being said, I don't care if Maj gets rocked every time he comes out, when the Reds use the money they saved to sign a good FA in the off season, I do not want to hear a single one of you "trade doubters" coming back and being excited about the person we signed. Kearns and Lopez were going to cost the Reds a TON of money, and in my opinion, Lopez was not going to be anywhere close to worth the money he was going to get. So I think Clayton/Maj/2 prospects for Lopez was a nice trade. I still have faith that given some time off Maj will be fine. Bray for Kearns is looking good because Bray has been lights out since coming over. You are looking at our next closer. I am so sick of everyone crying everytime Maj comes in and pitches bad. Yes he has been bad, that is obvious. Would I make that trade tomorrow knowing what I know now? Absolutely. The Reds HAD to get relief pitching. Would you be happy if they were still running Rick White, Estaban Yan, Chris Hammond, Joe Mays out there instead? Of course not. He took a gamble and it's been 50-50. We got a kid that could be nothing short of spectacular and we got a guy that is struggling right now, that happens. AND we saved a TON of money when AK and FeLo go to arbitration. And the rookies we got in the trade could be good, could be awful, those guys were throw ins. When FeLo and AK were 0-15 between the two of them to start in Washington, what do you think the Nationals fans were saying? They were pissed they gave up Bray for those two hacks. People go through slumps. Right now Maj's arm looks tired and his confidence is shot. He comes in now trying to force strikes because he doesn't want another outing like his last, and anyone that's ever played a sport knows you can't force the ball to do anything. He needs a break, plain and simple. When Kent or Matt come back, I would DL Maj and let him regroup and give his arm some time. Do I want to see him out there every night? No. But I must ask, Does Kearns get to the ball Freel caught the other night to save the game? As a matter of fact, does AK Do ANYTHING Freel has done lately? I would rather have a guy out there busting his butt and doing everything he can (even if it means getting picked off sometimes and running full steam into a wall sometimes) instead of a guy that will hit an occasional home run and throw out a few guys at the plate. Give me Freel everyday of the week. Would I rather see FeLo at short instead of Clayton, sure, but I think was never comfortable with FeLo playing there either. Everytime a groundball went his way I prayed it didn't end up in the 5th row somewhere. And now we don't have to pay him 10 million in the next couple years.

That thoughtful enough? Or should I just say "our pitchers suck, our manager sucks, our hitters don't hit no homers! If we had Kearns and Lopez we'd be ruling this biznitch"

KronoRed
08-06-2006, 10:05 PM
Cormier and Weathers were not available. It was either Magic or Coffey for the 8th.
My main beef was that Coffey wasn't even warming up till 2 runners were on, Narron hitched his wagon to Magic no matter what happened

RedEye
08-06-2006, 11:53 PM
That thoughtful enough? Or should I just say "our pitchers suck, our manager sucks, our hitters don't hit no homers! If we had Kearns and Lopez we'd be ruling this biznitch"

Thanks for the thoughtful response, wojo. I actually agree with much of what you said, and when I come across as a doubting thomas, it's only because I still can't rationalize this trade no matter how hard I try. I appreciate your efforts to make your position clear.

Let me try to make my own position crystal...

The problem with the trade is that the only way you can defend it is by what happens on the field now. The Reds are now 57-54, and as much as I like them being competitive, I don't see much of their curent 'success' stemming from that trade.

If anything, they are still in this only because St. Louis has been stinking it up. Guardado was acquired in a much smarter earlier deal (Travis Chick probably won't amount to much), and he has probably been the biggest part of the bullpen's turnaround (7 saves). To make the trade look even worse, we then acquired bullpen depth two weeks later (Lohse, Cormier) for a bit of minor league talent. Frankly, I think chances are that the bullpen would be just as good without the deal of Kearns and Lopez. Heck, we've even LOST several games, including today's game, BECAUSE of Maj. So that evens out anything that Bray's participation might have gained us in the process. I think without The Trade, we're still looking at a 57-54 Reds team or thereabouts.

Although Lopez and Kearns will make big money later in their careers, neither was due much next year--at least compared to their on-field value. As far as I know, the maximization of young, cheap players is the key to small market, competitive baseball. Krivsky overpaid--he admitted as much in the media--for what he thought was a known quantity: two young relievers to help NOW. The problem is, only ONE of those relievers is helping now (Bray) and the other is about the same if not worse than what we originally had. Sure, you can argue that the Reds might be able to save a bit of money thanks to avoiding arbitration hearings, but they also could have used their two trade chips in other ways--perhaps to acquire that #1 or #2 starter in the offseason. Not to mention that keeping Kearns and/or Lopez would have kept the offense chugging along to support our shaky starters.

You can defend the trade all you want, but I still don't see it as a smart move. Not by a long shot. I'll gladly laud Kriv for the Phillips, Arroyo, Guardado and Ross moves, and I'll somewhat less enthusiastically defend the Cormier and Lohse deals. But the day Kearns AND Lopez (as opposed to just one of them) were traded will go down in my memory as a day when it became much more difficult to back this front office with gusto. IMO, it was the day Wayne became impatient and the day that lots of folks on RedsZone scrambled to try to find ways to defend a pretty undefensible desperation move.

Lastly, none of these opinions makes me any less a Reds fan than someone who blindly supports Kriv's every move. I live and die with the Reds every day, and if I critique The Trade, it's only because it makes my breakfast cereal taste a little worse in the morning. I really hope this all works out for the Reds, and I'll be watching them every step of the way, come rain or shine, Weathers or Majewski.

wojo1025
08-07-2006, 12:17 AM
I thought FeLo was up for arbitration next year? After signing with Boras there was no way we were keeping him for a reasonable amount of money, just wasn't going to happen. The other trades you have to break down.

1) We got Eddie for Chick. Eddie was out as the closer in SEA and had made it clear he wanted out. When a player does this, it's hard to get anything of value for him. Also, Eddie has had shoulder troubles. Look @ his health since he came here. He's missed a couple games due to injury and Marty was talking today about Eddie going on the DL. You could look @ that trade by saying we gave up a "prospect" for an over the hill pitcher that will retire in the next year. I like the trade for EE, just showing both sides.

2) Rheal Cormier for Justin Germano. Rheal at the time had the lowest ERA in the league, but he also was a 39 year old pitcher you has a 1/1 walk to K ratio. He is a situational lefty that has a hard time throwing strikes. Also, in order to waive his no trade clause, the Reds were forced to extend his contract for another year. So we gave up Germano, who had a lot of upside, for another pitcher that will retire in 2 years and has really had a hard time getting people out since joining the Reds.

3) Kyle Loshe for Zach Ward: This trade we gave up a kid that hadn't lost a game this year and was breezing his way through game for a guy that not only lost his spot in the Twins rotation this year, but was ultimately sent to the minors. In a year that everyone needs pitching, this guy wasn't good enough to hold a roster spot. How much does that say for him?

Again, if you break down all of the bullpen moves, they were very questionable. The fact is, Wayne got what he could. He got a couple prospects, a veteran SS and a guy that last season pitched 86 innings and had a sub 3.00 ERA. A sinker ball pitcher that had only given up 6 HRs in the last two seasons. A guy that, combined with Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero made the Nationals 7 8 9th innings guys almost impossible to score off of. How was Wayne to know he'd get here and implode? I firmly stand by the fact that if this kid gets some rest (DL him) and comes out and has a couple good outings, the snowball will start rolling and we'll all realize how good this guy can be.

I hated to see Austin go, I honestly did. I loved the fact that if a batter shot one to RF he had to hustle to 1b or there was a chance he'd get thrown out. If there was a single to RF with a runner @ 2d, the 3b Coach had a tough decision to make because you know AK had a cannon out there. I loved the 20 homers he hit. I hated the fact that he seemed to get hurt every year. I hated the fact that his swing was entirely too long and he had a hard time cutting back on the strikeouts. We have enough guys that strike out, we needed to add some guys in the lineup that could make contact and reach base.

I don't know why, but I could never firmly get behind FeLo. He never seemed to hustle down the line, he looked lost at SS from time to time. He always just seemed kinda smug. It could just be the demeanor that showed on t.v. and he may've been the nicest guy on the ballclub, but he just didn't look like he belonged. His defense left a lot to be desired, but he was a heck of a hitter and a typically weak offensive position. However, that being said, when he signed with Scott Boras that pretty much ended the chances of him staying with the Reds long term. Jim Bowden, along with every other GM in the league, probably knew that. So why would they give up anything good for him? Why give up someone spectacular for a guy that's had 1 good season in the bigs and was a very unreliable glove?

Overall, I like the moves WK made and he hasn't exactly sold our future to make them. I would've liked to see him go out and get another bat, SP, or SS at the deadline, but I am sure it wasn't easy with what we have to work with. Also, everyone was looking for pitching, so I doubt we had many people willing to help us out. There just weren't enough teams out of the race at that point, or even now, there still aren't that many teams out of the race. Honestly, look at the Abreu trade. The Phillies got absolutely beat up in that trade. The Mets gave up a 27 year old OF with numbers similar to Kearns and they got a 42 year old pitcher and a kid that couldn't stay on the Pirates roster. We got two 20 something guys that were pitching in the majors, plus a SS, plus a minor league INF, plus a pitching prospect.

The market was bad this year and Wayne got guys that everyone thought would help. He gave up two guys with TONS of potential, but we needed pitching and that's what we got.

fearofpopvol1
08-07-2006, 12:25 AM
As much as Gary has made me mad, I think he's been overworked. He needs a rest. Frank overworked that arm. Will he ever put up numbers like last year? Seems unlikely at GAB. But I guarantee you he'll put up better numbers than he has as of late with some rest.

RedEye
08-07-2006, 12:38 AM
The market was bad this year and Wayne got guys that everyone thought would help. He gave up two guys with TONS of potential, but we needed pitching and that's what we got.

Great post. If I had 'em, I'd give you rep points for that one. :)

You may be right about the trade market. Wayne may have gotten what he could when he could. But I still think that the Kearns/Lopez deal was one where he should have folded instead of pursuing the hand. Bowden knew everything you mention, of course; he was eager to fleece us, and he did.

Maj may indeed turn out to be a good pitcher for us some day. But with each day that goes by, he wastes the purported value that we were 'overpaying' to get him. I also don't think he was ever really as good as you say. He's never had a very respectable strikeout rate, and he's always been a pitcher that rides on luck rather than any kind of dominance (lots of walks and hits in the past, working out of jams constantly, it had to catch up to him sometime). As much as I respect some of K's evaluation of talent, he just screwed this one up.

Somehow I can stomach the other moves (Cormier, Guardado, Lohse) because we were only giving up potential, and we're not talking Scott Kazmir or Jeff Bagwell-like potential. The one thing I don't like is the Cormier extension, because I have a feeling he's going to turn into Chris Hammond Part Deux. Otherwise, as I said, these other moves are defensible. Guardado has been nothing but solid, even if I can't figure out how ML hitters miss his 87 MPH fastball. Cormier seems to bring some accountability from the left side. Lohse went out and showed tonight that he can be a serviceable fifth starter, especially the first time through the NL. That first time through might make a one or two game difference in the standings (even though the team wasted a pretty good outing by him this evening).

I agree that it would have been nice to land another bat. I have a feeling that there was one more prospective trade on the table, perhaps that Tejada deal that everyone was talking about. Had we landed Miggy and gotten serious about re-signing him next year, then the rest of the moves would have made more sense, and I would understand Kriv's larger plan. Right now, however, this cluster of moves has the distinct feeling of a young GM flailing to try to make an impression in his first go-round. It's refreshing after DanO's deadening cautiousness, but it's got drawbacks, too.

Anyway, wojo, next time we cross paths on the game thread, I hope you won't take my disparaging comments about the bullpen badly--especially when they start giving up runs. After your long posts this evening, I certainly won't be so irked when you respond to my posts with a seasoned skepticism.

Go Reds!

Highlifeman21
08-07-2006, 01:05 AM
I agree, Tom. Jerry Narron has lost 54 games by himself this year, and the Reds have won 57, in spite of Narron's coaching those games.

I think the Narron criticism is a little extreme. I wonder how Sparky would fare in today's internet world of instant feedback?

The Reds have won games in spite of Jerry Narron. Let's make no mistake about that. Narron's "strategy", or lack thereof at times, will ultimately cost this team in the long run, as we've seen him already cost us games on the micro level.

Big picture, Narron shouldn't be a part of this organization in any capacity. Small capacity, it's no coincidence that the Reds are undefeated in games where Narron gets tossed. 4-0 this year, IIRC.

You can't pin all the losses on Narron, so I won't make that outlandish claim, but it shouldn't be any stretch of the imagination to easily pin up to as much as 25-33% of the Reds' losses on Jerry Narron.

The Narron criticism is just.