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Edskin
08-08-2006, 12:28 AM
Two things going on right now in Cincy and at Redszone:

1. A pennant race
2. Debate over how to construct this team

Unfortunately, it's becoming harder and harder to distinguish #1 from #2 and I think it's clouding much of the Reds fan-nation emotions right now.

#1 is made possible by the utter mess that is the NL right now. No doubt about that. Any other year, and #1 isn't on the list-- it's only #2.

But, it IS what is IS. It IS a pennant race. It IS a pennant race in Cincinnati. That sentence hasn't been written on this board in August in a long, long time-- most likely before most had ever heard of Redszone.

I, for one, am confused.

One part of me always has the longterm interest of the organization in mind. Our minor league "talent" scares me. Other than Homer, I have little hope. I see that some of our more productive players are older guys having big years. That scares me. I see a rotation that is improved from the nightmare it has been, but still paper thin and in need of at least one more MAJOR addition for this team to really take the next step. I see a GM caught between trying to win now and trying to win down the road as well.

As many of you know, I was (and remain) in favor of the Washington trade. I am not sold by any means that it was the right thing to do-- but I think it was the right risk to take as long as it is part of a greater plan.

But today, for the first time in forever, I was juiced about a single game all day long. It reminded me of 1999 in so much as my excitement level for a series. This team isn't nearly as good as our 1999 team and I don't "believe" in this team like I did that one either. So, it's not the same. But it's as close as I've been since then. And I wonder if I should maybe latch on to this as long as I can?

We're tied for the wild card on August 8th. We're 4.5 games out of the division w/ 6 games over the next week against the team in front of us. Football is a welcome "addition" to the sports landscape for me this year, rather than a welcome eraser of yet another lost baseball season.

I am still HIGHLY skeptical of this front office, and highly skeptical of this particular team. But my advice to everyone here is to do your best to put those fears/concerns aside, take a look at the standings, and start rooting your tail off. With this organization, who knows when we'll get another chance?

The gamethread was a comedy of whining and crying tonight. The 13-1 score was certainly a major contributor, but I couldn't help but thinking that the tone seemed "off" for a team in our current situation. Almost seemed a shame. I'm not calling anyone out. I'm not complaining. I'm not telling anyone how to "be a fan." Just making an observation and maybe handing out some friendly advice from a person who knows what it's like to be tortured by their favorite teams.

Enjoy it folks, because this time last year, there wasn't even a reason to visit the gamethread.

George Foster
08-08-2006, 12:48 AM
Two things going on right now in Cincy and at Redszone:

1. A pennant race
2. Debate over how to construct this team

Unfortunately, it's becoming harder and harder to distinguish #1 from #2 and I think it's clouding much of the Reds fan-nation emotions right now.

#1 is made possible by the utter mess that is the NL right now. No doubt about that. Any other year, and #1 isn't on the list-- it's only #2.

But, it IS what is IS. It IS a pennant race. It IS a pennant race in Cincinnati. That sentence hasn't been written on this board in August in a long, long time-- most likely before most had ever heard of Redszone.

I, for one, am confused.

One part of me always has the longterm interest of the organization in mind. Our minor league "talent" scares me. Other than Homer, I have little hope. I see that some of our more productive players are older guys having big years. That scares me. I see a rotation that is improved from the nightmare it has been, but still paper thin and in need of at least one more MAJOR addition for this team to really take the next step. I see a GM caught between trying to win now and trying to win down the road as well.

As many of you know, I was (and remain) in favor of the Washington trade. I am not sold by any means that it was the right thing to do-- but I think it was the right risk to take as long as it is part of a greater plan.

But today, for the first time in forever, I was juiced about a single game all day long. It reminded me of 1999 in so much as my excitement level for a series. This team isn't nearly as good as our 1999 team and I don't "believe" in this team like I did that one either. So, it's not the same. But it's as close as I've been since then. And I wonder if I should maybe latch on to this as long as I can?

We're tied for the wild card on August 8th. We're 4.5 games out of the division w/ 6 games over the next week against the team in front of us. Football is a welcome "addition" to the sports landscape for me this year, rather than a welcome eraser of yet another lost baseball season.

I am still HIGHLY skeptical of this front office, and highly skeptical of this particular team. But my advice to everyone here is to do your best to put those fears/concerns aside, take a look at the standings, and start rooting your tail off. With this organization, who knows when we'll get another chance?

The gamethread was a comedy of whining and crying tonight. The 13-1 score was certainly a major contributor, but I couldn't help but thinking that the tone seemed "off" for a team in our current situation. Almost seemed a shame. I'm not calling anyone out. I'm not complaining. I'm not telling anyone how to "be a fan." Just making an observation and maybe handing out some friendly advice from a person who knows what it's like to be tortured by their favorite teams.

Enjoy it folks, because this time last year, there wasn't even a reason to visit the gamethread.

The reason why people are so upset is because they see this season crashing and burning before their eyes...hard to "enjoy" that.

Falls City Beer
08-08-2006, 12:51 AM
I don't see much of anything "muddying" Redszone. I see a bunch of people who got their hopes up only to have them smashed to bits after this trade. It seems like a normal reaction.

dsmith421
08-08-2006, 01:00 AM
We're a mentally fragile fanbase, bottom line. Most of us here have seen the Reds at the top of the sport (1976, 1990) and have been largely frustrated since. I've grown to expect the worst, unfortunately.

CTA513
08-08-2006, 01:15 AM
Kind of reminds me of this thread:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49539



:obrien:

WVRedsFan
08-08-2006, 02:19 AM
Two things going on right now in Cincy and at Redszone:

1. A pennant race
2. Debate over how to construct this team

Unfortunately, it's becoming harder and harder to distinguish #1 from #2 and I think it's clouding much of the Reds fan-nation emotions right now.

#1 is made possible by the utter mess that is the NL right now. No doubt about that. Any other year, and #1 isn't on the list-- it's only #2.
I don't believe we are in a pennant race. We have no chance to ever overtake the Cardinals. They have a fantastic first baseman and a great third baseman. They have swagger. We have Hat and a combination of Aurilia and EdE. No comparison. They have a Cy Young pitcher and a bunch of run machines. We have run machines and Aaron Harang.


As many of you know, I was (and remain) in favor of the Washington trade. I am not sold by any means that it was the right thing to do-- but I think it was the right risk to take as long as it is part of a greater plan.

Here we part. I see a man bitten by the false philosophy that middle relief is valuable. Our middle relief was so horrible that the GM felt he had to go get some while forgetting that we had two viable starters. So, he goes out and gets a multitude of relief pitchers, most of which were no better than what we had, and sacrificed a recent All-Star shortstop and a kid who could be replaced by Chris Denorfia (as WayneK said himself). That worked out well, didn't it? In Felipe Lopez' place we got Royce Clayton and the occasional Juan Castro. Talk about risk. Would the Cardinals have made this trade? Not on your life. Stupid is the word.


But today, for the first time in forever, I was juiced about a single game all day long. It reminded me of 1999 in so much as my excitement level for a series. This team isn't nearly as good as our 1999 team and I don't "believe" in this team like I did that one either. So, it's not the same. But it's as close as I've been since then. And I wonder if I should maybe latch on to this as long as I can?

I'm with you Ed. Me, too, but in the back of my mind I knew what was going to happen. We have assembled a team of role players. Hatteberg, Aurilia, Freel, and Ross are our answer to Albert, Rollin, and Edmunds. That should tell you something. Two old guys (one who had one good year) and a career minor leaguer who tries so hard he overachieves at the expense of good sense. Yep, that's championship material all right. Yet, I root hard for this team because it is the only team that means anything to me.


I am still HIGHLY skeptical of this front office, and highly skeptical of this particular team. But my advice to everyone here is to do your best to put those fears/concerns aside, take a look at the standings, and start rooting your tail off. With this organization, who knows when we'll get another chance?

That's easier said than done, Ed. You just know the end is just around the corner. Of course, we might get lucky and end up with the Wild Card. Then what? Maybe we'll win the LCS and then what? A World Series might be embarrassing, but my guess is that the best we can hope for is the wild card and a return to respectability after a quick series against the Mets. That's what makes this so hard to take. We've been up in the Wild Card so much this season only to crash and burn. We were 2 games up on Saturday night and then we give away a game and get blown out to draw even with everyone. Can we ever believe this team will be consistent enough to win anything?


The gamethread was a comedy of whining and crying tonight. The 13-1 score was certainly a major contributor, but I couldn't help but thinking that the tone seemed "off" for a team in our current situation. Almost seemed a shame. I'm not calling anyone out. I'm not complaining. I'm not telling anyone how to "be a fan." Just making an observation and maybe handing out some friendly advice from a person who knows what it's like to be tortured by their favorite teams.

The problem with tonight's game thread was the way we lost this one. Our team looked tired, lethargic and not into it at all. Our starting pitcher simply was the rookie he was. Our players choked, as they usually do against the Cardinals. And then we see who pitches tomorrow and get sick. Even an emasculated Cardinals team has more swagger and confidence than our team who rolled over and died before 34,000 fans and a host of us watching on TV and listening by radio. I nearly cried, then got mad, and banished the game from my TV (which I should have done the first time George Grande, alias Mr. Sunshine, started telling me how great a catcher and center fielder the Cardinals had). Good teams don't implode like this one does and we all know that elimination is just a matter of time. I hate it.


Enjoy it folks, because this time last year, there wasn't even a reason to visit the gamethread.

But we did. At least I did. If you're a Reds fan, you have no place else to go. It's in your blood. I'll be 58 in November. If I'm lucky, I've got only about 20 more seasons to hope for a team that is at least respectible. For 7 years now, we haven't been. We have a new regime which seems to value the same things we've seen before. Older cheap players and guys DFA'd from other clubs while ridding ourselves of young talent which just might get better. It seems all too familiar to 2000-2005. Yes, this season has been better, but the Washington trade and the results of that trade has made me see exactly what the future of my loved Reds will be. I hope 20 years is enough time. If I live that long.

westofyou
08-08-2006, 02:26 AM
They have a fantastic first baseman and a great third baseman.Who both are regular vistors in Will Carroll's weekly injury updates.

RFS62
08-08-2006, 07:30 AM
It was one game, people.

One game.

GAC
08-08-2006, 07:42 AM
It was one game, people.

One game.

But the most important game of the year! ;)

I was reading USA Sports Weekly yesterday (can't find the article on the net) and they mentioned an interesting stat while speaking of the Card's plight this year.... no team has ever won their division with two 8 game losing streaks in the same season. Of course, where does that leave the Reds?

The NL right now is a muddled mess. Anything can obviously happen in a short series such as the WS (see Marlins); but if the WS were played right now I'd have a hard time betting against the AL team. ;)

Edskin
08-08-2006, 08:22 AM
FCB-- I'm not buying the "crash and burn" thing this year.

I certainly can't make the argument that we're "better" since the trade. But I don't think we're much worse either. You make it sound as if we were "on our way" before the trade and then Wayne made the move and derailed us. I'm not buying that. People can try to convince me that this was the wrong longterm move-- I'll listen to that arguement. But you'll never convince me that this trade derailed our chances this year.

Edskin
08-08-2006, 08:25 AM
Of course, we might get lucky and end up with the Wild Card

I keep reading this sentiment on the board and it baffles me a bit.

I 100% acknowledge the lameness of the NL of this year. No doubt about it.

However, if the Reds win the wild card, even in a bad year for the league, even if we're very lucky, I can't help but give a lot of credit to the FO, manager, etc....

Results DO matter you know. If we somehow make the playoffs in the sport where making the playoffs is the most difficult, I'll consider it a pretty major deal for this organization. For 7 years, we haven't sniffed the post-season and in many of those years we've been one of the biggest jokes in MLB. We're not a joke this year. Frustratingly average perhaps, but not a joke.

I guess my biggest thing is that I distinctly remember where we're coming from, and I like the idea that we're not in that same place this year. Whatever the reason.

RFS62
08-08-2006, 08:55 AM
FCB-- I'm not buying the "crash and burn" thing this year.

I certainly can't make the argument that we're "better" since the trade. But I don't think we're much worse either. You make it sound as if we were "on our way" before the trade and then Wayne made the move and derailed us.


I think the trade definitely derailed us. But it derailed us from the express lane to the bottom of the ocean. We were taking on water and sinking like a rock. Has everyone forgotten how putrid the bullpen was?

GAC
08-08-2006, 09:03 AM
I keep reading this sentiment on the board and it baffles me a bit.

I 100% acknowledge the lameness of the NL of this year. No doubt about it.

However, if the Reds win the wild card, even in a bad year for the league, even if we're very lucky, I can't help but give a lot of credit to the FO, manager, etc....

Results DO matter you know. If we somehow make the playoffs in the sport where making the playoffs is the most difficult, I'll consider it a pretty major deal for this organization. For 7 years, we haven't sniffed the post-season and in many of those years we've been one of the biggest jokes in MLB. We're not a joke this year. Frustratingly average perhaps, but not a joke.

I guess my biggest thing is that I distinctly remember where we're coming from, and I like the idea that we're not in that same place this year. Whatever the reason.

Look at the 1973 Mets (82-79). ;)

I could care less if we "back into" the WC or whatever. Getting the opportunity in a short series where anything can happen is what it's all about.

I have never in my life seen a forum so "doom and gloom" in my life worrying and wringing their hands over what MIGHT happen or what SHOULD happen, due to the averageness of this team.

I know I'm probably wrong, but I get the impression that some can't wait for it to happen - that is, this team to regress to where they think it should be - so they can come back and say "See? I told you all so."

I personally could care less. I'm not gonna let that bother me (never have), and I'm enjoying following/watching this team, with all it's "warts".

If they end up falling short, then Cie La Vie, this management, in a very short order, has surprised alot of the baseball "experts" in 06 and given us fans alot of hope for the future. ;)

Ltlabner
08-08-2006, 09:14 AM
Making the claim that "the trade" derailed our chances makes the assumption that we were on the way to locking up the division, had a rock-solid team and everything was going hunky-dory. Then that nasty Kriv made a trade that underminded everything. That is some grade A revisionst history right there.


Of course, we might get lucky and end up with the Wild Card.

People say this as if it's a bad thing. Like we sinned and got stuck with the WC. Come on. I'd be jumping for joy to get the WC considering where we were just last year. To go from joke of a team to WC winner in one year is pretty darn impressive.

Of course I want to waltz into the World Series and sweep the thing. But that isn't this year's team. Our team is what it is, "the trade" or not. We need to all start living in reality that this is a decent team that been the recipiant of a horrible NL league and carear years from a number of players.

But the fact that BC and Kriv have taken a team that was supposed to be in last place and brought them to be fighting for the division IN AUGUST is an acomplishment in itself. But that gets glossed over and dimissed with "we should be XYZ games ahead if they only did it my way". Some people are actually proclaiming that they want DanO back. They have a GM that has advanced the team this far, this fast and they want DanO back?!?!?! Amazing.

GAC
08-08-2006, 09:27 AM
I think the trade definitely derailed us. But it derailed us from the express lane to the bottom of the ocean. We were taking on water and sinking like a rock. Has everyone forgotten how putrid the bullpen was?

And has this BP's performance, since the trade, improved? ESPN reported the other day that prior to the trade the Red's BP converted 59% of their save opps. Since the trade - 80%. Indications are that this BP peformance has improved. Not in great leaps and bounds, but it has improved.

I need some help with Baseball Prospectus. I've had a premium subscription for awhile, yet I'm a novice when it comes to looking up such stats as a team's breakdown of runs per game to compare prior to and after the trade. I want to do so because it has been offered up on here that our offense has suffered direly since the loss of Lopez and Kearns. Has it really... or is that simply some's subjective opinion? What do the stats reveal?

GAC
08-08-2006, 09:53 AM
Making the claim that "the trade" derailed our chances makes the assumption that we were on the way to locking up the division, had a rock-solid team and everything was going hunky-dory. Then that nasty Kriv made a trade that underminded everything. That is some grade A revisionst history right there.

No GM makes perfect trades all the time. Some, in order to keep their team in contention, do go out on a limb and make trades that are very much crapshoots and risky. Take a good hard look at the acquisitions of Arroyo and Phillips from a historical standpoint - performance wise. I remember full well what many said about these guys when acquired. It wasn't pretty. ;)

And that is exactly what Krivs did with the trading of Lopez and Kearns. The market for pitching right now, especially BP, is so tight that every team is scrambling and snatching up whatever they can IN HOPES these guys might help somehow (Dave Williams - Rick White).

Some have proposed that because of those market conditions that this FO should have stood pat and waited till the off-season. I proposed that myself lonnng before this trade went down, so you'll get no argument from me.

But IF that had happened (stood pat in 06 when we have a shot), then alot of those very same people that were screaming for Krivs to FIX THIS PUTRID BP in May/June, would have been screaming at him for blowing any chance they had this year by not doing nothing.

Guardado, Bray, Cormier were good acquisitions IMO. Franklin and Majewski (now on the DL) we'll see. Not really holding out much hope there.

The key is - how much will the loss of Lopez and Kearns impact this offense in the second half in comparison to the improvement in the bullpen?

Because something had to be done to improve this BP for us to even have any shoot IMO.

When some one can show me the hard numbers showing this, and not simply their subjective opinion, then I'll listen.

But I personally believe that this organization can overcome (and replace) the losses of players like Lopez and Kearns.... and "No!" this FO does not think that guys like Clayton and Castro are those long term answers.

As much as Deno and Freel have been built up on here, and people complaining about lack of playing time and how they need to be in there every day and can help, then that should easily lessen the loss of a Kearns.

Marc D
08-08-2006, 10:03 AM
When I think of a pennant race I think of two great teams slugging it out day after day. A battle of talent, depth and ultimately of wills. The winner takes all and the loser gets his heart torn out. A pennant race, to me, is the most similar sporting event to a great heavyweight fight as one can find.

What we have this year is the net result of a Pud Selig marketing idea to keep more fans interested untill football starts. Everybodys still in it and no one is any good. This isn't a heavyweight fight, its more like a disagreement between George Michael and his partner over floral arangements for the upcoming wedding.

Filtered through that lens it is absolutely infuriating that A) our FO fell for this win now BS and B) they gave away chips now, they could have actually sold later. I wanted '06 to be the year we laid the groundwork for real improvement starting in '07. Instead I feel like we just took the 78 Vega down to Maaco for a $200 paint job.

baseballPAP
08-08-2006, 10:18 AM
I didn't like the trade. At all.
BUT....it made sense. The bullpen was terrible...it is now OK. Maybe better than OK, but I'm holding out on that decision for now. The loss of AK is tolerable, I was always waiting for the other shoe to drop with him anyway. Lopez? A big blow, but I don't see him as being as good as he was last year in the future...a notch below, and still very solid, but not last year good. Clayton surely is a downgrade....I like the energy of Freel and Denorfia in place of Kearns' laid back approach...I'll take a positive there.

One thing is for sure....this team isn't going to sit still and spin its wheels while everyone else makes moves. How long has it been since a transaction scrolled across the bottom of your TV screen and you actually considered the fact the Reds might be involved? I was so sick of hoping for the slightest move the past 5 years...

This team was hoping for .500 this spring. Now they're leading the WC race. OK...so we're only a few games better than 500...but still! And most of the WC competitors, the NLwest, get to beat up on each other the rest of the way.

I'm still pretty positive for this team. More so than April. More so than before the trade. More so than any time since I was at the last home game of the year in 99. I'll take that for now :)

Falls City Beer
08-08-2006, 10:21 AM
FCB-- I'm not buying the "crash and burn" thing this year.

I certainly can't make the argument that we're "better" since the trade. But I don't think we're much worse either. You make it sound as if we were "on our way" before the trade and then Wayne made the move and derailed us. I'm not buying that. People can try to convince me that this was the wrong longterm move-- I'll listen to that arguement. But you'll never convince me that this trade derailed our chances this year.

I definitely have not intimated that the Reds were good to go for a pennant drive without any trades. I've never made that assertion. They had to make moves to improve the team. But these trades made the team worse (or being incredibly generous--roughly the same), not better. And better was what we needed to stick around in the race.

REDREAD
08-08-2006, 10:35 AM
I think the trade definitely derailed us. But it derailed us from the express lane to the bottom of the ocean. We were taking on water and sinking like a rock. Has everyone forgotten how putrid the bullpen was?

But look at the end result of the trade. Bray has contributed. Maj and Clayton have only dragged us down and cost us games.

Look at the other relievers Wayne picked up and the price he paid. Just looking at that subset tells you the problem could've been fixed just as well without giving up Kearns and Lopez. If you expand your search to all the other pitching that was traded, it's obvious that we could've improved the pen greatly WITHOUT trading Kearns and Lopez. Heck, the Dbacks just got Hernandez for two AA guys. Wayne was delusional about how tight the market was. Naturally, 2 weeks before the deadline, all sellers are asking for the moon, just in case someone like Wayne panics.

Falls City Beer
08-08-2006, 10:38 AM
But look at the end result of the trade. Bray has contributed. Maj and Clayton have only dragged us down and cost us games.

Look at the other relievers Wayne picked up and the price he paid. Just looking at that subset tells you the problem could've been fixed just as well without giving up Kearns and Lopez. If you expand your search to all the other pitching that was traded, it's obvious that we could've improved the pen greatly WITHOUT trading Kearns and Lopez. Heck, the Dbacks just got Hernandez for two AA guys. Wayne was delusional about how tight the market was. Naturally, 2 weeks before the deadline, all sellers are asking for the moon, just in case someone like Wayne panics.

And even Bray has had his problems. It's only a matter of time before his ERA reflects what he's doing by allowing as many baserunners as he's allowing.

REDREAD
08-08-2006, 10:40 AM
And has this BP's performance, since the trade, improved? ESPN reported the other day that prior to the trade the Red's BP converted 59% of their save opps. Since the trade - 80%.


And that's largely thanks to Guardado.

Bray got one save for pitching 1/3 inning against Houston with a 2 run lead, and another by pitching an inning with a 2 run lead against Atlanta.

Bray has been nice, but let's remember he's only pitched 10 1/3 innings for us so far. In other words, that's a relatively small portion of the innings pitched in the revitalized bullpen.

Maj and Clayton's screwups have easily outweighed Bray's contributions.

REDREAD
08-08-2006, 10:44 AM
And even Bray has had his problems. It's only a matter of time before his ERA reflects what he's doing by allowing as many baserunners as he's allowing.

Yes, I tend to agree with you. He's sporting a 1.74 ERA now, but that's because the other guys have bailed him out when he's gotten in trouble.
I expect him to be a nice reliever, my only beef is that we probably paid 20 times more for him than we should have.

As much as Bray has been hailed as a savior, he's only pitched 10 1/3 innings.
Obviously, that means the rest of the pen has improved too (in spite of Maj).

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 11:55 AM
FCB-- I'm not buying the "crash and burn" thing this year.

I certainly can't make the argument that we're "better" since the trade. But I don't think we're much worse either. You make it sound as if we were "on our way" before the trade and then Wayne made the move and derailed us. I'm not buying that. People can try to convince me that this was the wrong longterm move-- I'll listen to that arguement. But you'll never convince me that this trade derailed our chances this year.

If this team isn't worse, then I don't know what it is ...


Pitching Before/After Trade

Before After

K/9 6.40 7.29
BB/9 2.80 2.99
K/BB 2.29 2.44
HR/9 1.37 1.27
2B/9 2.20 2.20
BABIP .312 .319
DER .696 .687
ERA 4.79 4.79
DIPS ERA 4.59 4.33

Runs Allowed 5.19 5.13
Runs Scored 5.03 4.26

OBP .342 .346
SLG .451 .431
OPS .793 .777

So what do we have here?

Well, we have some modest gains on the pitching front. Our K/9 has spiked up, but we're also walking more guys. Our HR/9 is showing a minor improvement. There's some decent improvements in DIPS ERA that I also like.

But then it goes downhill from here ...

Check out those BABIPs and DERs. Our defense has worsened since the trade. In fact, it's worsened so much that it's just about swallowed up our gains in the pitching department. In overall run prevention, we are 0.06 runs better per game. That's a neglible difference, which just means that as far as total run prevention goes, we're no different on August 8th than we were on July 12th.

As an aside on the defense, when Chris Denorfia plays, he needs to be in center field, and when Ryan Freel plays in the outfield, he needs to be in center field (unless Denorfia is already there). It goes without saying that our best defensive outfield options need to be in center field instead of being hidden in a corner slot. If Denorfia and Freel were actually manning center field instead of right field, our defensive mess would be cleaned up quite a bit.

Now, onto the offense. While we've actually gained a few points in OBP, we've suffered a 20 point drop in SLG, and that's a huge drop. Our OPS has dropped 16 points, and our run scoring has dropped 0.77 runs.

We actually should be scoring more than just 4.26 runs per game, but the offense has become highly inefficient due to a number of factors, namely 1) the OBP in the three hole, 2) Our best doubles hitter [Encarnacion] receiving spotty playing time, 3) Rich Aurilia batting cleanup vs. RHP and 4) the SS position becoming a black hole offensively since the trade.

The low OBPs in the three/four holes is stifling big innings since there's too many outs in the middle of the order. Obviously individual inning run expectancy drops each time an out is made during the inning. If guys in the 1-2 lineup spots get on base, but the 3-4 spots make outs, run scoring opportunities become diminished and wasted. Likewise, the hole in the bottom of the lineup is causing more outs while also acquiring fewer bases, which leads to fewer baserunners advancing from guys who got on-base via the 5-7 lineup spots. Losing a prolific doubles hitter in Encarnacion will also contribute to inefficiencies in offense since a loss in doubles will send the offensive balance further out of whack.

Regardless of our offensive inefficiencies, however, the days of an 800 run offense are gone. This is an offense that at most would score 750 runs over a full season, and more realistically we're probably looking in the 720 run range. Knowing that, we need a pitching/defensive unit capable of allowing no more than 700 runs over a full season, which is a per game average of roughly 4.35 runs per game.

And as we've seen on the early returns of the trade, we're still worlds away from allowing only 4.35 runs per game.

Reds Nd2
08-08-2006, 11:56 AM
Instead I feel like we just took the 78 Vega down to Maaco for a $200 paint job.

Chevrolet ceased production of the Vega in 1977.

Ltlabner
08-08-2006, 12:04 PM
Cyclone, would it be fair to say that if the defensive issues (specifically CF and SS) were cleaned up the improvemnts in pitching would increase dramatically? Or at least by some amount? In other words, the defensive issues wouldn't eat up the pitching gains so we'd have a better picture of how the bullpen improvements are helping the team.

Puffy
08-08-2006, 12:18 PM
Nice post Cyclone - and welcome to Twins baseball. Cause that is where the Reds are headed under Krivsky.

Only we don't have Santana or Liriano.

SteelSD
08-08-2006, 12:20 PM
Regardless of our offensive inefficiencies, however, the days of an 800 run offense are gone. This is an offense that at most would score 750 runs over a full season, and more realistically we're probably looking in the 720 run range. Knowing that, we need a pitching/defensive unit capable of allowing no more than 700 runs over a full season, which is a per game average of roughly 4.35 runs per game.

And as we've seen on the early returns of the trade, we're still worlds away from allowing only 4.35 runs per game.

Great post, as always, Cyclone. If I may, I think it's important to add the following:

With a 750-Run offense, the Reds would need to produce 670 Runs Allowed to hit a 90-Win pythag projection. Assuming the league average UER rate, the Reds would need to produce an ERA of about 3.86 to achieve the desired result.

Puffy
08-08-2006, 12:21 PM
Great post, as always, Cyclone.

brown-noser.

:mooner:

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 12:25 PM
Cyclone, would it be fair to say that if the defensive issues (specifically CF and SS) were cleaned up the improvemnts in pitching would increase dramatically? Or at least by some amount? In other words, the defensive issues wouldn't eat up the pitching gains as much.

Dramatic improvements may be extreme, but there would definitely be improvements.

Felipe Lopez was an awful defensive shortstop, but it's important to note that Royce Clayton at his age isn't a whole lot better. Clayton may save a small handful more runs than Lopez, but he's still below average. I don't necessarily have a problem with sacrificing offense at shortstop for a great glove there, but if offense is going to be sacrificed the way it has, then that glove better be top of the line. The Reds have been saying they want better defense, but replacing poor defense with below average defense doesn't exactly cut it.

As far as center field, Griffey is the worst defensive center fielder in the game today. He's the worst this season, and he was the worst last season. The only guy that really comes close is Bernie Williams ... when the Yanks play him in center field. Playing Griffey in center field now is just flat out idiotic on its face, but what makes it even more idiotic is we have a guy on our roster [Denorfia] who was annointed by BA as the guy with the best defensive outfield tools in the entire International League. The decision to keep running Griffey out there in center field is costing the team runs, and it's costing us wins; there's no way around that.

FWIW, what people seem to forget about Kearns is that he was a good defensive right fielder. IIRC, the Fielding Bible ranked him 5th last season defensively in right field.

Ltlabner
08-08-2006, 12:29 PM
With a 750-Run offense, the Reds would need to produce 670 Runs Allowed to hit a 90-Win pythag projection. Assuming the league average UER rate, the Reds would need to produce an ERA of about 3.86 to achieve the desired result.

Which certinally opens up some BIG questions to tackle in the offseason.

What to do about Milton (I forget the length of his contract).
What to do about the #5 starting rotation spot.
How to deal with SS in the long term.
Ken Griffey Jr in CF. That's an especially prickley one.

All of these will directly effect getting the team ERA to 3.XX, improving defense or boosting run production. To me, those are the big questions that will prove Kriv's mettle as a GM. How he answers them will definately define the future of the club for a while.

westofyou
08-08-2006, 12:30 PM
FWIW, what people seem to forget about Kearns is that he was a good defensive right fielder. IIRC, the Fielding Bible ranked him 5th last season defensively in right field.
It's easy to forget about him with the speed that the 2 replacements have displayed inthe field, add Freels catches and some fine throws and it gets even further away in my thoughts.

Kearns is good RF, but he's not as fast as those two and it is really telling when they chase balls in the corner.

On another note it looks like teh Kearns in CF experiment was short lived.

Plus take a gander at Lopez's fielding % compared to the other DC SS this year.... ouch.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=was&pagetype=fielding&seasonYear=2006

SteelSD
08-08-2006, 12:31 PM
brown-noser.

:mooner:

I loathe that emoticon.:evil:

Ltlabner
08-08-2006, 12:33 PM
Felipe Lopez was an awful defensive shortstop, but it's important to note that Royce Clayton at his age isn't a whole lot better. Clayton may save a small handful more runs than Lopez, but he's still below average. I don't necessarily have a problem with sacrificing offense at shortstop for a great glove there, but if offense is going to be sacrificed the way it has, then that glove better be top of the line. The Reds have been saying they want better defense, but replacing poor defense with below average defense doesn't exactly cut it.

Couldn't agree more. As I posted earlier, I personally applogize to anybody I posted to saying, "he has to be better than Lopez, he's only a stop-gap, give him time".

Clayton at SS leaves me scratching my head why Castro is here. He certinally isn't a pitching hitting option based on his offensive prowess. So why not slide him into SS as a temporarty solution and at least recognize the benefits of his improved defense.

I know moving BP to short is the best option (at least currently) but they've made it clear they aren't going to change durring the season. So it seems like Castro would be better that this point than Clayton.

dsmith421
08-08-2006, 12:33 PM
Some people are actually proclaiming that they want DanO back.

Prove that.

God, I hate strawman arguments.

I don't want Krivsky or O'Brien. I want a good GM.

Puffy
08-08-2006, 12:41 PM
I loathe that emoticon.:evil:

Hey, hey, hey - that should be I loathe that emoticon :evil:

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 12:51 PM
It's easy to forget about him with the speed that the 2 replacements have displayed inthe field, add Freels catches and some fine throws and it gets even further away in my thoughts.

Kearns is good RF, but he's not as fast as those two and it is really telling when they chase balls in the corner.

On another note it looks like teh Kearns in CF experiment was short lived.

Plus take a gander at Lopez's fielding % compared to the other DC SS this year.... ouch.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=was&pagetype=fielding&seasonYear=2006

The small upgrades are nice, but combined they may save us only about 10 runs over a full season. It's an improvement, I like it and it's a small step in the right direction defensively. Is the sacrifice in offense worth it? Well .....

Then when I look to center field and realize that swapping in Denorfia or Freel for Griffey could save us 30 runs over a full season, I'm less impressed.

Heck, given that Denorfia could be one of the top defensive center fielders in the game, 30 runs may be conservative. It may even be more.

The question becomes where in the field will Griffey hurt us the least defensively. We know it isn't center field. Is it a corner slot or first base? That's an important question the Reds should really be trying to figure out, IMO. Then we have the issue of his fading plate discipline and prowess at the plate, but that's another topic altogether ...

Edskin
08-08-2006, 01:10 PM
Cyclone-- Don't forget those pitching numbers are also colored by the fact that pre-trade Bronson had great numbers, and post-trade, he's had much worse numbers. I think comparing bullpen numbers rather than overall pitching numbers is more accurate.

westofyou
08-08-2006, 01:10 PM
Then when I look to center field and realize that swapping in Denorfia or Freel for Griffey could save us 30 runs over a full season, I'm less impressed.

No duh... who would be?

But all of this moving a HOF player off their natural position doesn't come easy, and if you think it will come in the middle of the year sans injury I'd say you're dreaming.

It's a game with people, egos and headstong individuals.

Look at Larkins last few years, Ozzies.. Mays in CF in the WS, Joe DiMaggio forcing Mantle to a corner.. everyone sees it, even they do.. but not everyone is Mike Schmidt, they're not going to admit defeat in the face of adversary.

It's sucks, it's unfair to the fans and the run differential.. I know all that... but the people in the game make most things ugly, fascinating and downright interesting.

I find the process of the whole season to be just as interesting as the games, the Reds are freaking people out, playing streaky .500 baseball and teetering on the edge of either more prolonged idiocy or choosing a seperate and new path in the organizations history, one that despite most hopes will not materialize as quickly as they think it should, mostly that's because the game is people driven and that despite the wide use and knowledge of numbers that aspect won't change too soon.

That interests me, way more then it probably should in regards to the Reds win and loss record this year.

Reds Nd2
08-08-2006, 01:23 PM
Nice work, as usual, Cyclone.


Our defense has worsened since the trade.

But how much of that can be attributed to the trade? I guess I'm still not convinced this trade made the Reds worse defensively. I left out defensive win shares only because I couldn't seperate them by position.


Zone Rating FRAR
Right Field
Kearns .891 5
Freel .909 2
Denorfia 1.000 4
Wise 1 game played with no chances in RF since the trade.

Short Stop
Lopez .785 0
Clayton .804 6
Castro .759 7




We actually should be scoring more than just 4.26 runs per game, but the offense has become highly inefficient due to a number of factors, namely 1) the OBP in the three hole, 2) Our best doubles hitter [Encarnacion] receiving spotty playing time, 3) Rich Aurilia batting cleanup vs. RHP and 4) the SS position becoming a black hole offensively since the trade.

Yet only one of those factors, replacing Lopez's bat with Clayton's, is due to the trade taking place. The other factors are a Narron problem, not a problem with the trade.

Reds Nd2
08-08-2006, 01:29 PM
...and teetering on the edge of either more prolonged idiocy or choosing a seperate and new path in the organizations history...

Let's hope the Reds take "the one less traveled by".

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 01:50 PM
No duh... who would be?

But all of this moving a HOF player off their natural position doesn't come easy, and if you think it will come in the middle of the year sans injury I'd say you're dreaming.

It's a game with people, egos and headstong individuals.

Look at Larkins last few years, Ozzies.. Mays in CF in the WS, Joe DiMaggio forcing Mantle to a corner.. everyone sees it, even they do.. but not everyone is Mike Schmidt, they're not going to admit defeat in the face of adversary.

It's sucks, it's unfair to the fans and the run differential.. I know all that... but the people in the game make most things ugly, fascinating and downright interesting.

Nah, I'm not dreaming. I want the team to do everything possible to win as many games as possible, and I'm not too particularly interested in letting egos get in the way. The team needs to identify where Griffey should play in order to benefit the team the most. If I was interested in watching a bunch of future aging Hall of Fame egos play, I'd advocate for the acquisition of a bunch of 35 and older guys who will be on the ballot soon.

Cobb moved, Mantle moved, Snider moved. IIRC, I thought Speaker even moved, but I could be wrong there. Richie Ashburn even finished his career up with some games in a corner slot.

Some guys will move, others will refuse. I know it's a game of headstrong egos, but there's times those egos will go against winning.

Grouping Griffey in with DiMaggio in regards to ego won't exactly shine a pretty light down on Junior, either. Not only did DiMaggio force Mantle to center, but some people throw a bit of the blame at Joe for the incident when Mantle wrecked his leg in the outfield.

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 01:53 PM
Cyclone-- Don't forget those pitching numbers are also colored by the fact that pre-trade Bronson had great numbers, and post-trade, he's had much worse numbers. I think comparing bullpen numbers rather than overall pitching numbers is more accurate.

Arroyo's decline is largely because of two reasons, 1) BABIP and LOB regression and 2) Jerry Narron abuse.

I don't think it's purely coincidental that Arroyo's gone down the tubes since his June 13th start where he threw nearly 130 pitches, had 111 pitches after the 6th inning, and actually threw 32 pitches in that 6th inning alone. Narron ran him back out for the 7th, Arroyo looked beyond fatigued, but Narron kept him out there anyway.

Puffy
08-08-2006, 01:56 PM
Not only did DiMaggio force Mantle to center, but some people throw a bit of the blame at Joe for the incident when Mantle wrecked his leg in the outfield.

I've read that as well from a bunch of Yankees who played with the two of them at the time. DiMaggio was a great player, but he also had a great ego.

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 01:57 PM
Nice work, as usual, Cyclone.

But how much of that can be attributed to the trade? I guess I'm still not convinced this trade made the Reds worse defensively. I left out defensive win shares only because I couldn't seperate them by position.


Zone Rating FRAR
Right Field
Kearns .891 5
Freel .909 2
Denorfia 1.000 4
Wise 1 game played with no chances in RF since the trade.

Short Stop
Lopez .785 0
Clayton .804 6
Castro .759 7

Yet only one of those factors, replacing Lopez's bat with Clayton's, is due to the trade taking place. The other factors are a Narron problem, not a problem with the trade.

I don't think the trade itself has made the defense worse, but everything that has occurred since the trade hasn't really improved the defense, and that includes playing Aurilia at third instead of Encarnacion. Error reduction is always good, but not necessarily at the expense of vast range.

Whether it's luck or not, the team defense has been worse since the trade. The improvements have been so minimal that worse play at other positions by guys that were already there (LF, 3B, CF, etc.) is enough to easily offset those slight improvements.

BTW, you're dead on with much of it being a Narron problem.

westofyou
08-08-2006, 02:00 PM
Some guys will move, others will refuse. I know it's a game of headstrong egos, but there's times those egos will go against winning.
Yep, and the majority of those moves will occur during the off season, as a nod to the egos it will be poking.



Mantle moved

Mantle moved out of CF permantly after the 65 season, not in the mid season (though he logged 17% of his OF starts from 62-64 in the corners)

I expect Griffey will be moved off CF this offseason, but it isn't likely to happen this season, and that's all because he's Ken Griffey Jr.

Big Klu
08-08-2006, 02:02 PM
We would all be happier if this was the only muddying going on in RedsZone:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/64/Muddy_Waters.jpg

westofyou
08-08-2006, 02:03 PM
We would all be happier if this was the only muddying going on in RedsZone:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/64/Muddy_Waters.jpg
I saw Muddy open for Clapton on the Slowhand Tour.

Falls City Beer
08-08-2006, 02:06 PM
I saw Muddy open for Clapton on the Slowhand Tour.


It's like Blues Hammer.

pedro
08-08-2006, 02:11 PM
It's like Blues Hammer.

Is that the " really authentic" blues band that Steve Buchemi's GF took him too in Ghost World?

Ltlabner
08-08-2006, 02:13 PM
I saw Muddy open for Clapton on the Slowhand Tour.


Awwww man Muddy isn't nuttin. You should see Albert King, or Albert Lee for that matter. They had range. They could really pic a double play. Their VORP is +36. Ughhhhhh....wait.....nevermind.

Falls City Beer
08-08-2006, 02:14 PM
Is that the " really authentic" blues band that Steve Buchemi's GF took him too in Ghost World?

Yep. It's what my wife and I call Eric Clapton: Blues Hammer.

"I've been PLOOOOOOOWIN!!
Pickin' cotton all day long"

pedro
08-08-2006, 02:15 PM
Yep. It's what my wife and I call Eric Clapton: Blues Hammer.

"I've been PLOOOOOOOWIN!!
Pickin' cotton all day long"

yeah, the only cotton Clapton's ever picked was at the Gap.

pedro
08-08-2006, 02:16 PM
Awwww man Muddy isn't nuttin. You should see Albert King, or Albert Lee for that matter. They had range. They could really pic a double play. Their VORP is +36. Ughhhhhh....wait.....nevermind.


albert collins ain't shabby either.

Cyclone792
08-08-2006, 02:17 PM
Yep, and the majority of those moves will occur during the off season, as a nod to the egos it will be poking.

Mantle moved out of CF permantly after the 65 season, not in the mid season (though he logged 17% of his OF starts from 62-64 in the corners)

I expect Griffey will be moved off CF this offseason, but it isn't likely to happen this season, and that's all because he's Ken Griffey Jr.

Moving Griffey in the offseason is better than not moving him at all. He needed to be moved this past offseason, though I will buy (for now) the aspect of Krivsky being a late hire right before spring training and electing to hold off.

It doesn't take much to look back and see what Cobb did for Connie Mack during Ty's final two seasons. Sure, Mack paid him a ton, but Cobb left his ego at the door and did everything Mack asked. Whether it was start anywhere in the outfield, pinch hit or take the young A's nucleus under his wing, Cobb obeyed Mack's wishes. If Ty Cobb could do that, Ken Griffey, Jr. can move to another position to help his team.

This offseason will shine some light on whether or not people are willing to swallow some pride and shelve the ego to help the team.

westofyou
08-08-2006, 02:25 PM
albert collins ain't shabby either.
The Iceman

37red
08-08-2006, 03:01 PM
I like what Edskin said, right down to the last detail. A lot of people on this site are feeling that old fire because of the "99" team, Larkin Fan, Spitball, and most anyone with a 2000 start up date, not meaning to leave any of the old gang out. It's been a long long time since we could enjoy the excitement of being this close to a playoff spot this time of year no matter how we get there. I have a lot of anticipation for this series like I haven't in a while, I suggest digging in and really hoping we pull off a decent run in the next two weeks.

backbencher
08-08-2006, 03:04 PM
Nah, I'm not dreaming. I want the team to do everything possible to win as many games as possible, and I'm not too particularly interested in letting egos get in the way.

I don't think the first sentence and the second sentence are compatible.

KronoRed
08-08-2006, 04:41 PM
Good posts all around thread..real team effort :)

Edskin
08-08-2006, 04:58 PM
A few more things:

Ryan Freel has a higher OBP AND OPS than Kearns this year-- and Freel's overall of .840 is much better than the .778 Kearns has posted in Washington.

In a combined 41 games in DC, Lopez and Kearns have combined for 3 HR's, and 16 RBI. Lopez has K'd 18 times-- nearing once a game.

Just some more food for thought.

MaineRed
08-08-2006, 06:26 PM
A few more things:

Ryan Freel has a higher OBP AND OPS than Kearns this year-- and Freel's overall of .840 is much better than the .778 Kearns has posted in Washington.
In a combined 41 games in DC, Lopez and Kearns have combined for 3 HR's, and 16 RBI. Lopez has K'd 18 times-- nearing once a game.

Just some more food for thought.

What is it about Lopez and Kearns that have made people so crazed? Are either even above average for their positions, overall?

I don't get it. I know we didn't get Cy Young and Dennis Eckersley in the trade but we didn't give up that much.

We've all but replaced Kearns. The team is weaker at SS but not THAT much weaker (Royce has had some big hits) while the pitching, even with Majewski's out of this world ERA is much improved when it comes to the pen.

The offense hasn't been as good but we can't blame it on Freel and FeLo wasn't having a great year so we can't blame losing him.

I think Griffey and BP struggling along with injuries to Ross and Edwin have dragged down the offensive numbers as much, if not more than the loss of Lopez.

registerthis
08-08-2006, 06:32 PM
What is it about Lopez and Kearns that have made people so crazed? Are either even above average for their positions, overall?

Yes.

And if you don't understand the crux of the reason why people are unhappy with this trade, despite all of the back and forth that has gone on over the past month, then there's nothing I or anyone else could present that would clear things up for you. I'd suggest you shift your efforts elsewhere.

dsmith421
08-08-2006, 06:35 PM
For the 800 millionth time, no one is that sore about losing Lopez or Kearns. It's trading them away for garbage that has people climbing the walls.

MaineRed
08-08-2006, 06:51 PM
Chris Hammond was garbage.

Bray and Majewski are both promising young relievers.

For two guys that no one is sore about losing, I don't know what more we could of expected.

Edskin
08-08-2006, 08:05 PM
It all boils down to three things:

1. How much did/do you like Kearns and Lopez?
2. How much do you think they COULD have landed us in a trade?
3. What are your hopes for Majewski and Bray?

I was not a huge fan of Kearns or Lopez and didn't believe either could land us a solid starting pitcher--even in the off-season. So, therefore, losing them doesn't sting me now and I don't think it will sting in the future. For those who disagree, the yes, I understand why you feel this was a poor trade.

I like Bray quite a bit and view him as a potentially valuable bullpen guy in 7th-8th inning situations and possibly even as a closer. Majewski should be average to above average in the long-run, which is much better than we had for much of this season. If Majewski NEVER regains form is a total bust from here on out, then you'd have to say Krivsky dropped the ball, but I think he'll bounce back.

Honestly, it all comes down to your perception of Kearns and Lopez. That's why those on the opposite side my argument will never see my point and why I doubt I'll ever see theirs.

MaineRed
08-08-2006, 08:15 PM
According to the guy who posted above you Edskin, "NO ONE", is upset about losing Kearns and Lopez.

Apparently they are all just upset we didn't get a serious prize for two guys we are not upset about losing.

But I'm supposed to be shifting my efforts elsewhere.

oregonred
08-08-2006, 11:26 PM
It all boils down to three things:

1. How much did/do you like Kearns and Lopez?
2. How much do you think they COULD have landed us in a trade?
3. What are your hopes for Majewski and Bray?

I was not a huge fan of Kearns or Lopez and didn't believe either could land us a solid starting pitcher--even in the off-season. So, therefore, losing them doesn't sting me now and I don't think it will sting in the future. For those who disagree, the yes, I understand why you feel this was a poor trade.

I like Bray quite a bit and view him as a potentially valuable bullpen guy in 7th-8th inning situations and possibly even as a closer. Majewski should be average to above average in the long-run, which is much better than we had for much of this season. If Majewski NEVER regains form is a total bust from here on out, then you'd have to say Krivsky dropped the ball, but I think he'll bounce back.

Honestly, it all comes down to your perception of Kearns and Lopez. That's why those on the opposite side my argument will never see my point and why I doubt I'll ever see theirs.

excellent summation of the differing opinions on the trade :thumbup:

dsmith421
08-08-2006, 11:28 PM
According to the guy who posted above you Edskin, "NO ONE", is upset about losing Kearns and Lopez.

Apparently they are all just upset we didn't get a serious prize for two guys we are not upset about losing.

But I'm supposed to be shifting my efforts elsewhere.

As you seem to be shadowing me around this site, making pithy comments about everything I say, perhaps you'd like to PM me instead and save the rest of the site from having to read this crap?

kaldaniels
08-09-2006, 01:03 AM
Yes.

And if you don't understand the crux of the reason why people are unhappy with this trade, despite all of the back and forth that has gone on over the past month, then there's nothing I or anyone else could present that would clear things up for you. I'd suggest you shift your efforts elsewhere.

It is a stretch to consider either of the 2 above average...best case scenario you are talking they are in the upper 40 percentile of players at their position in the NL, which is above average yes, but quite debatable....neither are anything close to being one of the top 5 in the league at their position (which is really above average in my opinion...in the NL 5 players at a position would be above average, 6 average, 5 below average.) You could arguably list 7 players better than each of the 2 at their position in the NL, which would definitlely label them as average.

I have yet to make a verdict in this trade yet...but you have to realize, Reds fans have been enamored with the potential of these 2 for years, but unfortunatly, neither are anything special. You act all condescending towards the previous poster, who in my opinion, does pose a serious question.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-09-2006, 01:13 AM
You act all condescending towards the previous poster, who in my opinion, does pose a serious question.

The question was:

"What is it about Lopez and Kearns that have made people so crazed? Are either even above average for their positions, overall?"

It deserved the response it received.

kaldaniels
08-09-2006, 01:15 AM
Yes.

And if you don't understand the crux of the reason why people are unhappy with this trade, despite all of the back and forth that has gone on over the past month, then there's nothing I or anyone else could present that would clear things up for you. I'd suggest you shift your efforts elsewhere.

I am still shaking my head over the above average comment...so I digress...here is a grab bag of players that you could present an argument that are better than Kearns and Lopez at their position...I threw a few names in due to their age/potential, as some people may point to same traits in Kearns and Lopez. Here we go (NL only)

SS - Eckstein,Bill Hall,Reyes,Renteria,B.Hall,Izturis,Lugo,Hardy,Cons ell,Vizquel,
Furcal,Barmes

RF - Francoer,Encarnacion,Drew,Giles,Jenkins,S Green,J Jones,Alou,Burnitz,J Guillen,L Milledge,Mench, (lets throw Freel in this list as well)

Now, I understand the Kearns/Lopez Kool-Aid has been flowing freely around here for 4 years, however, it is a snap for me to pick 7 or 8 names from each of the above lists who I'd rather have than the two , which sadly IMO puts the dynamic duo in average territory.

To sum it up, the question, "Are Lopez and Kearns above average" is not a stupid question, but one derserving of a discussion.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-09-2006, 01:32 AM
I am still shaking my head over the above average comment...so I digress...here is a grab bag of players that you could present an argument that are better than Kearns and Lopez at their position...I threw a few names in due to their age/potential, as some people may point to same traits in Kearns and Lopez. Here we go (NL only)

SS - Eckstein,Bill Hall,Reyes,Renteria,B.Hall,Izturis,Lugo,Hardy,Cons ell,Vizquel,
Furcal,Barmes

RF - Francoer,Encarnacion,Drew,Giles,Jenkins,S Green,J Jones,Alou,Burnitz,J Guillen,L Milledge,Mench, (lets throw Freel in this list as well)

Now, I understand the Kearns/Lopez Kool-Aid has been flowing freely around here for 4 years, however, it is a snap for me to pick 7 or 8 names from each of the above lists who I'd rather have than the two , which sadly IMO puts the dynamic duo in average territory.

To sum it up, the question, "Are Lopez and Kearns above average" is not a stupid question, but one derserving of a discussion.


Are you suggesting that the above list of players is better than Kearns and Lopez?

I'm not sure what that proves if those players were actually better, but if you truly believe that list in it's entirety, then I don't think there is anything to discuss.

You should just agree to disagree with the "Kearns/Lopez Koolaid" drinkers.

kaldaniels
08-09-2006, 01:39 AM
Are you suggesting that the above list of players is better than Kearns and Lopez?

I'm not sure what that proves if those players were actually better, but if you truly believe that list in it's entirety, then I don't think there is anything to discuss.

You should just agree to disagree with the "Kearns/Lopez Koolaid" drinkers.

It's my opinion that most people (depending on what they like in a player *coughBurnitzcough*) could pick 7 or 8 names from each position they'd rather have than Lopez/Kearns...it's a debatable issue is my point. Agree to disagree, but the poster with the question didn't deserve to be brushed off IMO.

kaldaniels
08-09-2006, 01:48 AM
Are you suggesting that the above list of players is better than Kearns and Lopez?

I'm not sure what that proves if those players were actually better, but if you truly believe that list in it's entirety, then I don't think there is anything to discuss.

You should just agree to disagree with the "Kearns/Lopez Koolaid" drinkers.

Never did I say that, just presented a list of debatable options, again, don't be condescending.

SteelSD
08-09-2006, 02:02 AM
Now, I understand the Kearns/Lopez Kool-Aid has been flowing freely around here for 4 years, however, it is a snap for me to pick 7 or 8 names from each of the above lists who I'd rather have than the two , which sadly IMO puts the dynamic duo in average territory.

Well now, here we REALLY go...


SS- Eckstein,BillHall,Reyes,Renteria,B.Hall,Izturis,Lu go,Hardy,Consell,Vizquel,
Furcal,Barmes

If you can find 8 names on that list (excluding the second Bill Hall), then please do so. Don't talk about "finding" 7 or 8 names on that list. Actually do it.

Here's your Runs Above Position numbers for the players you cited:

David Eckstein: -6.2 RAP
Bill Hall: 10.8 RAP
Jose Reyes: 14.7 RAP
Edgar Renteria: 15.7 RAP
Cesar Izturis: -7.4 RAP (3B)
Julio Lugo: 15.4 RAP
J.J. Hardy: -2.9 RAP
Craig Counsell: -5.1 RAP
Omar Vizquel: 9.4 RAP
Rafael Furcal: 3.5 RAP
Clint Barmes: -15.5 RAP

Felipe Lopez: 5.4 RAP

The very idea that you included Clint Barmes is laughable. You appear to value the projection of the "young" SS crop but exclude Lopez from that young SS crop and, in error, project that Lopez won't improve while other players with lesser skill sets will. Instead, you'd position that oft-injured 35-year old Craig Counsell would be a better option.

I'm not even going to get into your RF list; which includes a goodly portion of complete duds.

Both players ARE (I repeat ARE) better-than-average options at their current positions and both project well coming into their age-prime seasons. I'll await your objective reasoning as to why each aren't, but I figure I'll be waiting a long time.

remdog
08-09-2006, 07:58 AM
There were other options to this trade that haven't been mentioned: flip floping Lopez and Phillips is one. Whether Lopez could play 2nd is an unknown to me and maybe the Reds didn't think he could make the switch. But, had he been able to do it you could then trade Kearns straight up for a reliever with Freel/Denorfia covering right field. That may have improved the middle defense while retaining a better hitter.

Another option would have been to trade Lopez straight up for a reliever, move Freel to 2nd and Phillips to SS. That probably wouldn't have done much for the 'D' but would have retained Kearns' 'power bat' in the OF.

Rem

BuckeyeRedleg
08-09-2006, 09:26 AM
Never did I say that, just presented a list of debatable options, again, don't be condescending.


I am still shaking my head over the above average comment...so I digress...Now, I understand the Kearns/Lopez Kool-Aid has been flowing freely around here for 4 years, however, it is a snap for me to pick 7 or 8 names from each of the above lists who I'd rather have than the two , which sadly IMO puts the dynamic duo in average territory.

Yes, you did say that and you might want to take your own advice on being condescending.

By the way, please read what Steel has posted above. I appreciate him taking the time to debate the "options" on one of your lists.

kaldaniels
08-09-2006, 10:42 AM
Well now, here we REALLY go...



If you can find 8 names on that list (excluding the second Bill Hall), then please do so. Don't talk about "finding" 7 or 8 names on that list. Actually do it.

Here's your Runs Above Position numbers for the players you cited:

David Eckstein: -6.2 RAP
Bill Hall: 10.8 RAP
Jose Reyes: 14.7 RAP
Edgar Renteria: 15.7 RAP
Cesar Izturis: -7.4 RAP (3B)
Julio Lugo: 15.4 RAP
J.J. Hardy: -2.9 RAP
Craig Counsell: -5.1 RAP
Omar Vizquel: 9.4 RAP
Rafael Furcal: 3.5 RAP
Clint Barmes: -15.5 RAP

Felipe Lopez: 5.4 RAP

The very idea that you included Clint Barmes is laughable. You appear to value the projection of the "young" SS crop but exclude Lopez from that young SS crop and, in error, project that Lopez won't improve while other players with lesser skill sets will. Instead, you'd position that oft-injured 35-year old Craig Counsell would be a better option.

I'm not even going to get into your RF list; which includes a goodly portion of complete duds.

Both players ARE (I repeat ARE) better-than-average options at their current positions and both project well coming into their age-prime seasons. I'll await your objective reasoning as to why each aren't, but I figure I'll be waiting a long time.

1) You act like RAP is the end all statistic to judge this players. Other stats count also. So do intangibles.

2) I completly take into account Lopez's fielding...he is dead last in the NL with a .955 fielding percentage. That said....

My List
1)B Hall
2)Reyes
3)Renteria

No argument needed I believe on those 3.

4) Vizquel...using RAP he is head and shoulders above Lopez. Having a career season pretty much hitting, his league leading .993 average in the field does it for me...not nearly as much range as he once had sure....

5) One I didn't even mention, Hanley Ramirez. Really, pretty similar to Lopez. Below average fielder at this point. Offensively, very very similar to Lopez. I would choose Ramirez at this point.

6) Jimmy Rollins, solid player. Down year at the plate for him this year. Good in the field (.987).

7) Lugo. I take his ~.300 average over the last 2 season and give him the edge...a good ballplayer. Don't think he'll be playing much SS the rest of the way, but that is where he plays on most teams.

8) Furcal. Career .283 average. Steals alot of bases, as does Lopez. Not a good fielder, but better than Lopez. I choose Furcal. Others may not.

9) R. Clayton. The dominant force at his position. The standard by which others will be judged for years to come. Just kidding, thought we could use a laugh.

That said, this list could surely be torn down by a multitude of stats (with the exception of Clayton). There is no way to absolutely positively say "this guy is better than this guy". Debate could be warranted. Thats all.

registerthis
08-09-2006, 10:50 AM
For two guys that no one is sore about losing, I don't know what more we could of expected.

You think two middling middle reliever prospects are a reasonable price for two established, productive offensive starters? If I'm a GM, I want to trade with you. Again and again...

registerthis
08-09-2006, 10:55 AM
It is a stretch to consider either of the 2 above average...

Kearns is 3rd in OPS amongst all NL right fielders, on top of very good defense. Lopez is in the top 50% of NL SS in OPS, is above average in RAP, and has stolen 30 bases.

Perhaps you and I just have different definitions of "above average."

westofyou
08-09-2006, 11:29 AM
You think two middling middle reliever prospects are a reasonable price for two established, productive offensive starters? If I'm a GM, I want to trade with you. Again and again...
Obviously some folks do, so why don't you reign your disdain for others opinions back a noch and quit being so snarky?

ochre
08-09-2006, 11:33 AM
For those still in doubt about the talent inequity of this trade, keep in mind the same very Krivsky acquired more value for one player with more holes in his game than either Kearns, or Lopez before the season. Pena for Arroyo ought to be the scale this trade is measured on. Would you trade Arroyo straight up for the whole lot that Kearns and Lopez netted?

Krivsky paid a painful premium trying to draw a 6 with a hand of 3 4 5 and 7.

westofyou
08-09-2006, 11:37 AM
Krivsky paid a painful premium trying to draw a 6 with a hand of 3 4 5 and 7.Yep, no doubt.

He also dumped the worst fielding starting SS in the Reds had in the last 50 years.

Hey but you all knew that too.

registerthis
08-09-2006, 11:49 AM
Obviously some folks do, so why don't you reign your disdain for others opinions back a noch and quit being so snarky?

Oh leave the self-righteous schtick somewhere else. I'd say the disdain for the anti-trade camp--and Lopez and kearns in particular--from those who thought the trade was A-OK has been pretty high. Or perhaps one line zingers are exempt?

Marc D
08-09-2006, 11:49 AM
For those still in doubt about the talent inequity of this trade, keep in mind the same very Krivsky acquired more value for one player with more holes in his game than either Kearns, or Lopez before the season. Pena for Arroyo ought to be the scale this trade is measured on. Would you trade Arroyo straight up for the whole lot that Kearns and Lopez netted?

Krivsky paid a painful premium trying to draw a 6 with a hand of 3 4 5 and 7.

You can't measure all other trades by that one. At the time Kriv traded a huge upside/5 tool Bowden special for a swing man type pitcher with a career ERA well north of 4. Hardley a blockbuster but a good fair deal for both sides. If the luck is reversed and WMP has the career year and BA is injured WK is in seriously hot water right now. I'm not saying the trade didn't need to be made or that BA hasn't helped us(obviously), just that the trade wasn't the complete fleecing that some here make it out to be.

You can't farily judge a trade when one guy gets hurt and the other pitches like Cy Young for the first few months. Neither will last and I still contend that time will show the WMP/BA trade to be a wash over their careers.

registerthis
08-09-2006, 11:51 AM
You can't measure all other trades by that one. At the time Kriv traded a huge upside/5 tool Bowden special for a swing man type pitcher with a career ERA well north of 4. Hardley a blockbuster but a good fair deal for both sides. If the luck is reversed and WMP has the career year and BA is injured WK is in seriously hot water right now. I'm not saying the trade didn't need to be made or that BA hasn't helped us(obviously), just that the trade wasn't the complete fleecing that some here make it out to be.

I don't think many people here believe we "fleeced" the Sox in the Arroyo deal. Most peoples opinions--mine included--were that the deal was one that had the potential to work out for both sides. Not every trade has to have a dominant winner/loser.

westofyou
08-09-2006, 11:52 AM
Oh leave the self-righteous schtick somewhere else. I'd say the disdain for the anti-trade camp--and Lopez and kearns in particular--from those who thought the trade was A-OK has been pretty high. Or perhaps one line zingers are exempt?
Yeah I'm being self-righteous.... thanks for the update.

ochre
08-09-2006, 11:57 AM
You can't measure all other trades by that one. At the time Kriv traded a huge upside/5 tool Bowden special for a swing man type pitcher with a career ERA well north of 4. Hardley a blockbuster but a good fair deal for both sides. If the luck is reversed and WMP has the career year and BA is injured WK is in seriously hot water right now. I'm not saying the trade didn't need to be made or that BA hasn't helped us(obviously), just that the trade wasn't the complete fleecing that some here make it out to be.

You can't farily judge a trade when one guy gets hurt and the other pitches like Cy Young for the first few months. Neither will last and I still contend that time will show the WMP/BA trade to be a wash over their careers.
It was a legit contrast. An offseason trade of a position player of similar status netted a viable, legit middle of the rotation starter. I could have brought up the Pierzynski trade as another example, since Krivsky was there for that one too, as another example of an offseason position players value. It's a stare contest. We blinked.

Marc D
08-09-2006, 11:58 AM
I don't think many people here believe we "fleeced" the Sox in the Arroyo deal. Most peoples opinions--mine included--were that the deal was one that had the potential to work out for both sides. Not every trade has to have a dominant winner/loser.

I'm not saying you did, but I have seen MANY posts on here commenting on WK's fleecing Boston. Most were in the form of "look at the genius that was the Arroyo trade, how dare you question Wayne" format when we started howling ovet the Nats deal.

Puffy
08-09-2006, 12:05 PM
Obviously some folks do, so why don't you reign your disdain for others opinions back a noch and quit being so snarky?


Yep, no doubt.

He also dumped the worst fielding starting SS in the Reds had in the last 50 years.

Hey but you all knew that too.

No offense WOY, but since this trade has went down you haven't exactly been "unsnarky"

registerthis
08-09-2006, 12:06 PM
I'm not saying you did, but I have seen MANY posts on here commenting on WK's fleecing Boston. Most were in the form of "look at the genius that was the Arroyo trade, how dare you question Wayne" format when we started howling ovet the Nats deal.

I think, considering Arroyo's performance in Cinci, that the trade has worked out more for the Reds than Boston, but when the trade went down I don't recall anyone saying that we ripped Boston off. If anything, more people felt that Pena had a greater upside than Arroyo and that Krivsky got the short end of the stick.

westofyou
08-09-2006, 12:07 PM
No offense WOY, but since this trade has went down you haven't exactly been "unsnarky"
Really?

I must have a hard time seeing that since all the hits I keep taking from not wanting to kill someone over it

But hey, thanks I'll try not and insult others after they insult me and maybe others can do the same.

registerthis
08-09-2006, 12:12 PM
I must have a hard time seeing that since all the hits I keep taking from not wanting to kill someone over it

Yeah, I want to kill someone over this trade...thanks for the update.

westofyou
08-09-2006, 12:13 PM
Yeah, I want to kill someone over this trade...thanks for the update.
Anytime reg, anytime.

ochre
08-09-2006, 12:14 PM
come on guys. Drop the interpersonal conflict stuff. We all tend to invest a little of ourselves in this team, so it's easy to start taking things personally, but it really doesn't get us anywhere. Just let it go.

registerthis
08-09-2006, 12:16 PM
FWIW, until 3 posts ago I hadn't brought anything personal into the discussions over this deal. But that's OK, we really seem to like generalizations around here...

EDIT: Sorry, I'll drop it. Don't know how it started int he first place...

SteelSD
08-09-2006, 12:53 PM
1) You act like RAP is the end all statistic to judge this players. Other stats count also. So do intangibles.

RAP is Runs Above Position. In short, it's an offensive statistic that tells us how far above positional average the player is. As for other statistics, it appears BA and FP are the "end-all" for ya', which is a shame.


2) I completly take into account Lopez's fielding...he is dead last in the NL with a .955 fielding percentage. That said....

That Fielding Percentage is exactly .002 lower than Julio Lugo's AL numbers (dead last). Yet Lugo makes your list?


My List
1)B Hall
2)Reyes
3)Renteria

No argument needed I believe on those 3.

Neither Reyes nor Hall know much about taking a walk, which hurts their long term projections. They're volatile. Hall is a second baseman who's playing Shortstop and his lack of range is one of the reasons the Brewers are an even worse fielding team (.685 DER) than the Reds. Renteria's making 10 million bucks. You can't have Renteria on the team because you can't afford him and I certainly don't see 7 million bucks of additional value versus Lopez; especially considering how volatile Renteria has been in the past couple of years offensively.

BTW, you missed Khalil Greene.


4) Vizquel...using RAP he is head and shoulders above Lopez. Having a career season pretty much hitting, his league leading .993 average in the field does it for me...not nearly as much range as he once had sure....

39 year old SS having his final offensive party makes the cut, eh?


5) One I didn't even mention, Hanley Ramirez. Really, pretty similar to Lopez. Below average fielder at this point. Offensively, very very similar to Lopez. I would choose Ramirez at this point.

Well, he's cheaper than Lopez. And...he's cheaper than Lopez.


6) Jimmy Rollins, solid player. Down year at the plate for him this year. Good in the field (.987).

Actually, this season is about what you can expect from Rollins at the plate on an annual basis. He's a good defensive SS. Spendy too and will become more spendy going forward.


7) Lugo. I take his ~.300 average over the last 2 season and give him the edge...a good ballplayer. Don't think he'll be playing much SS the rest of the way, but that is where he plays on most teams.

Ah yes, the guy who was last in FP in the AL this season with a .957 FP. Apparently, that's an attribute that gets Lopez kicked off your above average list, but we'll ignore it with Lugo because we need names. Started off all Joe Randa with the stick this season. Voted most likely to go all Joe Randa post SD trade.


8) Furcal. Career .283 average. Steals alot of bases, as does Lopez. Not a good fielder, but better than Lopez. I choose Furcal. Others may not.

Apparantly, the 2006 FP breaking point is .956? Slightly above (Lugo- .957, Furcal- .961) gets you on the list? Furcal's a better fielder (.829 ZR) than Lopez this season, but even moreso than Renteria he is the epitome of overpaid (8.7M).


That said, this list could surely be torn down by a multitude of stats (with the exception of Clayton). There is no way to absolutely positively say "this guy is better than this guy". Debate could be warranted. Thats all.

And I appreciate debate. Debate is good; far better than randomly assuming there are throngs of above-average SS taking the field for NL clubs every night. And I'm not saying that, all things being equal, I wouldn't choose some of the players from your list over Lopez.

That being said, the guys on your list are far from "slam dunk" choices due to many factors; including offense, defense, and associated cost. Some of them are above-average offensively, as is Lopez. Some of them are below-average defensively, as is Lopez. But at the same time, Lopez is an above average option, as are some from that list. And, if nothing else, your list really allows us to see how few viable alternatives exist versus a guy like Lopez.

registerthis
08-09-2006, 12:58 PM
But, you didn't take into account Work Ethic, Steel.

When you factor in Lopez's Work Ethic % of .764, it pales in comparison to Furcal's .839 and Renteria's .875. That's where the difference is made up.

Edskin
08-09-2006, 03:34 PM
Clayton and Freel have hit as many HR's as Kearns/Lopez have since the trade. And Freel's offensive numbers are MUCH better than Austin's this year.

And BTW, I'm not a big fan of comparing Kearns to other "RF'ers" only. I think it's more accurate to compare him to outfielders as a whole. Most OF'ers are pretty interchangeable.

RFS62
08-09-2006, 03:38 PM
The main school I'm seeing in this thread right now is Kindergarten.

Guys who have been good friends and had mutual respect for one another for a long time are slamming and getting slammed right and left.

This thread is like one of the old religion threads. Neither side is going to change their minds.

kaldaniels
08-09-2006, 03:46 PM
RAP is Runs Above Position. In short, it's an offensive statistic that tells us how far above positional average the player is. As for other statistics, it appears BA and FP are the "end-all" for ya', which is a shame.



That Fielding Percentage is exactly .002 lower than Julio Lugo's AL numbers (dead last). Yet Lugo makes your list?



Neither Reyes nor Hall know much about taking a walk, which hurts their long term projections. They're volatile. Hall is a second baseman who's playing Shortstop and his lack of range is one of the reasons the Brewers are an even worse fielding team (.685 DER) than the Reds. Renteria's making 10 million bucks. You can't have Renteria on the team because you can't afford him and I certainly don't see 7 million bucks of additional value versus Lopez; especially considering how volatile Renteria has been in the past couple of years offensively.

BTW, you missed Khalil Greene.



39 year old SS having his final offensive party makes the cut, eh?



Well, he's cheaper than Lopez. And...he's cheaper than Lopez.



Actually, this season is about what you can expect from Rollins at the plate on an annual basis. He's a good defensive SS. Spendy too and will become more spendy going forward.



Ah yes, the guy who was last in FP in the AL this season with a .957 FP. Apparently, that's an attribute that gets Lopez kicked off your above average list, but we'll ignore it with Lugo because we need names. Started off all Joe Randa with the stick this season. Voted most likely to go all Joe Randa post SD trade.



Apparantly, the 2006 FP breaking point is .956? Slightly above (Lugo- .957, Furcal- .961) gets you on the list? Furcal's a better fielder (.829 ZR) than Lopez this season, but even moreso than Renteria he is the epitome of overpaid (8.7M).



And I appreciate debate. Debate is good; far better than randomly assuming there are throngs of above-average SS taking the field for NL clubs every night. And I'm not saying that, all things being equal, I wouldn't choose some of the players from your list over Lopez.

That being said, the guys on your list are far from "slam dunk" choices due to many factors; including offense, defense, and associated cost. Some of them are above-average offensively, as is Lopez. Some of them are below-average defensively, as is Lopez. But at the same time, Lopez is an above average option, as are some from that list. And, if nothing else, your list really allows us to see how few viable alternatives exist versus a guy like Lopez.


You make several good points but here's the thing. A question was asked, are Lopez and Kearns above average and why do you consider them so, and the respondent answered with a curt "yes". I'm just saying the guy asked a question and deserved a respectful answer. Every person in the room will have a different ranking of the aforementioned players, that's a given. Me, I feel Kearns and Lopez are right now, middle of the pack guys, and you know what, I'm sure many agree with me. Many won't. However, I gave an objective answer and ranking (my reasoning idiotic to many, but that's cool),instead of basically mocking the question. I believe, that once you leave Redsville, Kearns and Lopez are nothing special, but thats just my opinion. My point was, that it derserves debate, not ridicule, something that I appreciate you see.

Chip R
08-09-2006, 04:11 PM
Yeah, I think this discussion has run its course.