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Playadlc
08-12-2006, 12:35 AM
In all my life of watching baseball, I don't know if I have EVER seen a dumber move than walking Howard with men on 1st and 2nd with no one out in the bottom on the 14th.


I am just stunned right now.

redsfaninbsg
08-12-2006, 12:39 AM
That really was a bad move. If he gets Howard out, then you have the pitcher for the second out/double play.

RBA
08-12-2006, 12:40 AM
I have to agree with you guys.

HumnHilghtFreel
08-12-2006, 12:40 AM
He took a gamble and he lost, that's all it was. I'd advise him not to go to Vegas considering his luck on a lot of the gambles he seems to take though.

reds1869
08-12-2006, 12:41 AM
What's scarier is that I think Bucky Dent agreed with the move.

snowstorm
08-12-2006, 12:42 AM
While I generally agree, the odds of Howard getting a hit in that situation is pretty good, so I don't really think it matters. It should never have come down to that. We had the lead twice and couldn't hold it either time.

RedsFanInMD
08-12-2006, 12:42 AM
Considering the solid hit to end the game, I think the point is moot.

Gizmo
08-12-2006, 12:42 AM
What's scarier is that I think Bucky Dent agreed with the move.


you mean Bucky "Bleepin'" Dent? :)

EKURed
08-12-2006, 12:42 AM
What's scariest is that he continues to take the Reds best and hottest hitter out of games that are not decided. It's a joke...

Gizmo
08-12-2006, 12:42 AM
Considering the solid hit to end the game, I think the point is moot.
Good point, does ease the pain a little.

redsfan4445
08-12-2006, 12:43 AM
im still STUNNED he took our Edwin when he is HOT at the plate!!! argggggggg

RedsFanBrooklyn
08-12-2006, 12:45 AM
EZ could not have gotten Howard out, and he played the odds and got the first out he wanted from the pitcher.

Not an excuse, but when your pitcher can't get anyone out, it makes your managing a little tougher.

I agree with the poster who said this one was lost by Bray and Guardado. Reds had the game and let it slip away.

Faulting the 14th is sort of too easy.

EKURed
08-12-2006, 12:45 AM
im still STUNNED he took our Edwin when he is HOT at the plate!!! argggggggg

It's asinine!!! His reasons are stupid!!! He didn't take Dunn out, did he? I wouldn't take Dunn out either, but who would you rather have at the plate, especially right now? Dunn or Encarnacion? It's an easy answer...

Playadlc
08-12-2006, 12:48 AM
I mean, seriously...can anyone off hand think of a dumber move ever made by a MLB manager.

HumnHilghtFreel
08-12-2006, 12:48 AM
It's asinine!!! His reasons are stupid!!! He didn't take Dunn out, did he? I wouldn't take Dunn out either, but who would you rather have at the plate, especially right now? Dunn or Encarnacion? It's an easy answer...
True, but infield defense and outfield defense are apples and oranges. I don't think he should sub out EE either, but the odds of a booted grounder or bad throw are more likely than an outfielder making an error.

KYRed
08-12-2006, 12:49 AM
Narron's moves are really disheartening. The walk is not even a decision for most MLB managers, you face Howard even though you don't like it.

If Jerry hadn't been given an extension I could at least be dreaming right now that he'd been gone next year and we'd have an improvement, but as it stands we all know we get him next year as well unless Wayne makes a shocking move.

dieselman44
08-12-2006, 12:49 AM
If Howard or the pitcher would have hit into a double play then Rowand never would have batted. I dont think it was the correct move to load the bases with nobody out, the percentage of the guy on third scoring in that situation is far better then the percentage of howard getting a hit.

redsfan4445
08-12-2006, 12:50 AM
True, but infield defense and outfield defense are apples and oranges. I don't think he should sub out EE either, but the odds of a booted grounder or bad throw are more likely than an outfielder making an error.

Edwin had 2 HOMERS and has been clutch with men on base.. WHY take him out????

HumnHilghtFreel
08-12-2006, 12:51 AM
Edwin had 2 HOMERS and has been clutch with men on base.. WHY take him out????
I said I didn't agree with taking him out, but I was explaining from my point of view why what he was saying didn't happen.

eagle
08-12-2006, 12:52 AM
If Bray and Guardardo do their job then Narron is not put in this position. The bottom line is the bullpen has to step up or this team is going to fade.

RedsFanatic
08-12-2006, 12:53 AM
Narron is going to run Bray's arm into the ground much like Robinson did to Majewski. The kid is only 23 and Jerry has him out their almost every day.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2006, 12:55 AM
I mean, seriously...can anyone off hand think of a dumber move ever made by a MLB manager.

Thursday, July 20, 2006.

Reds/Mets 2-2 tie in the 6th or 7th inning. Reds have bases loaded and only one out with Edwin Encarnacion due up - he of the career 1.713 OPS with the bases juiced - and Narron pinch hits for him. Hatteberg (the PH) K's and the Reds fail to score and wind up losing 4-2.

big boy
08-12-2006, 12:55 AM
I agree with the poster who said this one was lost by Bray and Guardado. Reds had the game and let it slip away.


If Jr. makes a catch that many other CFs would have made, the game would have been over. The Reds need to address that situation, badly.

EKURed
08-12-2006, 12:56 AM
He handles Encarnacion like he's a slappy who can't play defense. That's not exactly what EE is...

crazybob60
08-12-2006, 12:57 AM
Jerry "King of those kind of managerial moves" Narron....
You know how sometimes managers are an understudy of another manager before they become a manager? And they usually are for several years. Well what about Narron, who do you think he learned most of his coach styles from? I am just very curious, i8f thtye have had the same success/failures????

KYRed
08-12-2006, 12:58 AM
the percentage of the guy on third scoring in that situation is far better then the percentage of howard getting a hit.

That's it in a nutshell. It's not like Howard is batting .735 on the season. Even with the recently poor EZ, odds are Howard is out and so is the pitcher next up. Then we have a chance for the 15th.

snowstorm
08-12-2006, 12:59 AM
If Jr. makes a catch that many other CFs would have made, the game would have been over. The Reds need to address that situation, badly.

I almost forgot about that. A few years ago, Griffey would have caught that one easily. Now he seems very slow in the outfield. His age and the injuries have really caught up to him.

cReds1
08-12-2006, 01:00 AM
In all my life of watching baseball, I don't know if I have EVER seen a dumber move than walking Howard with men on 1st and 2nd with no one out in the bottom on the 14th.


I am just stunned right now.

Sure you have, starting a $13M player in CF and going Ofer 5 and his sidekick starting and going Ofer 6.

goreds2
08-12-2006, 01:00 AM
Howard is prone to strikeouts. In my 33 years of watching baseball, I have never seen a move to place the runner at 3rd with no outs. (Bob Boone was in the ballpark tonight though. :eek: :eek: :eek: )

Jerry is lucky Marty will not be asking the questions in tomorrow's pre-game show.

RedsFanBrooklyn
08-12-2006, 01:02 AM
Just so I get this right, fans of the Reds -- a team that has not even competed for the postseason since 1999, a team until recently managed by Dave Miley and Bob Boone -- think that the manager who has their team -- a team, mind you, picked dead last in the NL Central by every publication and pundit -- in the Wild Card lead in mid-August should be fired ASAP?

I'm all for hyperbole, but anyone honestly think this same exact team with Miley, Boone or some "established" guy like Jim Tracy managing would be int his position?

Is he perfect? Heck, no. But let's be reasonable.

Playadlc
08-12-2006, 01:04 AM
Just so I get this right, fans of the Reds -- a team that has not even competed for the postseason since 1999, a team until recently managed by Dave Miley and Bob Boone -- think that the manager who has their team -- a team, mind you, picked dead last in the NL Central by every publication and pundit -- in the Wild Card lead in mid-August should be fired ASAP?

I'm all for hyperbole, but anyone honestly think this same exact team with Miley, Boone or some "established" guy like Jim Tracy managing would be int his position?

Is he perfect? Heck, no. But let's be reasonable.

I never said he should be fired. All I am saying is that was the dumbest decision I have ever seen a MLB manager make.

cReds1
08-12-2006, 01:05 AM
Just so I get this right, fans of the Reds -- a team that has not even competed for the postseason since 1999, a team until recently managed by Dave Miley and Bob Boone -- think that the manager who has their team -- a team, mind you, picked dead last in the NL Central by every publication and pundit -- in the Wild Card lead in mid-August should be fired ASAP?

I'm all for hyperbole, but anyone honestly think this same exact team with Miley, Boone or some "established" guy like Jim Tracy managing would be int his position?

Is he perfect? Heck, no. But let's be reasonable.

Another CLASSIC post! :rolleyes:

Please tell us all why he deserved a contract extension? What has he done? The season is not over and it is only going to get uglier!

reds1869
08-12-2006, 01:06 AM
Just so I get this right, fans of the Reds -- a team that has not even competed for the postseason since 1999, a team until recently managed by Dave Miley and Bob Boone -- think that the manager who has their team -- a team, mind you, picked dead last in the NL Central by every publication and pundit -- in the Wild Card lead in mid-August should be fired ASAP?

I'm all for hyperbole, but anyone honestly think this same exact team with Miley, Boone or some "established" guy like Jim Tracy managing would be int his position?

Is he perfect? Heck, no. But let's be reasonable.

I don't advocate firing him at all. But I do advocate giving him the strictest of warnings if I'm WK. Rolling the dice is one thing, throwing them off the table and at the people who hope you'll win is quite another.

RedsFanBrooklyn
08-12-2006, 01:07 AM
Another CLASSIC post! :rolleyes:

Please tell us all why he deserved a contract extension? What has he done? The season is not over and it is only going to get uglier!

1. Has his team LEADING THE NL WILD CARD

What else do you need, a lesson in baseball?

or maybe you'd rather have Kearns, Lopez, Miley and fourth place back?

EKURed
08-12-2006, 01:08 AM
Don't forget....Narron is a self-proclaimed "BASEBALL GUY" so you know he has sound logic behind all of his moves....whatever!!!

EKURed
08-12-2006, 01:08 AM
1. Has his team LEADING THE NL WILD CARD

What else do you need, a lesson in baseball?

or maybe you'd rather have Kearns, Lopez, Miley and fourth place back?
I'm guessing they won't be after tonight depending on the Diamondback game...

Razor Shines
08-12-2006, 01:09 AM
If Jr. makes a catch that many other CFs would have made, the game would have been over. The Reds need to address that situation, badly.
Is that the one that hit off of his glove? I didn't get to see the whole game?

cReds1
08-12-2006, 01:10 AM
1. Has his team LEADING THE NL WILD CARD

What else do you need, a lesson in baseball?

or maybe you'd rather have Kearns, Lopez, Miley and fourth place back?


Woahhhhhhhhhhh, a lesson in baseball, another CLASSIC line, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, he has us leading the NL wild card, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, it is August, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

Bwwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

please tell me his overall record as a manager or do you need a lesson in baseball?

KYRed
08-12-2006, 01:11 AM
in the Wild Card lead in mid-August should be fired ASAP?

ASAP? That's just making something up. I'm just dissapointed that we aren't seeing a full season from him before he gets that K extension after being reviewed post season.

Razor Shines
08-12-2006, 01:14 AM
Another CLASSIC post! :rolleyes:

Please tell us all why he deserved a contract extension? What has he done? The season is not over and it is only going to get uglier!
People keep saying that, and have been since, what, a month into the season. Seems after every loss, someone is on here saying "Well that's it season's done." But we're still leading/tied in the wild card. If we win tomorrow please say it again so atleast you'll be consistent.

RedsFanBrooklyn
08-12-2006, 01:14 AM
Woahhhhhhhhhhh, a lesson in baseball, another CLASSIC line, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, he has us leading the NL wild card, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, it is August, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

Bwwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

please tell me his overall record as a manager or do you need a lesson in baseball?


Ah, OK.

So you're one of THOSE guys.

That makes ignoring you in the future a lot easier, thanks.

For the record, he's 105-103 as Reds manager.

reds1869
08-12-2006, 01:15 AM
What is this, the thread for eighth graders? My goodness people, back up your staements. It gets old hearing "Jerry's the greatest," "Jerry stinks," and "so does your mom." And none of those are backed up with anything by half of the posters on this thread. Geesh. Narron is neither the best or worst manager in the history of baseball. Both sides of this argument need to think a little bit. As for me, I'll flip flop after every game. :)

RedsFanatic
08-12-2006, 01:18 AM
So we should extend a manager for have his team play "mediocre" baseball. IMO, the job of the manager is to motivate and make sounds baseball decisions. Tonight and many other games he has not helped this teams chance to win with his decisions. And how is our 13 million dollar many unable to hustle out ground balls? I don't give a **** if he is Ken Griffy Jr. chew his ass out.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 01:29 AM
If Jr. makes a catch that many other CFs would have made, the game would have been over. The Reds need to address that situation, badly.

If Ross doesn't throw the ball into center field in the 9th inning, the Reds win. There is a lot of blame to go around for tonight's game.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 01:33 AM
I may be in the minority, but I don't think it was the unsound decision that everyone claims it to be. The key to walking Howard in that situation is that you have a reliever coming to the plate next who has only 3 at-bats the entire year. I don't think Narron does it if any position player was coming up next. You strike out the pitcher, which didn't happen but you got the out, and you can get out of the inning with a ground ball.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 01:34 AM
Sure you have, starting a $13M player in CF and going Ofer 5 and his sidekick starting and going Ofer 6.

Griffey is making $9 million this season.

RedsFanBrooklyn
08-12-2006, 01:36 AM
I may be in the minority, but I don't think it was the unsound decision that everyone claims it to be. The key to walking Howard in that situation is that you have a reliever coming to the plate next who has only 3 at-bats the entire year. I don't think Narron does it if any position player was coming up next. You strike out the pitcher, which didn't happen but you got the out, and you can get out of the inning with a ground ball.

Agreed.

I can't blame folks for being mad, especially given that the winning run came in on a single.

However, I sincerely doubt EZ's chances to get Howard out 9 out of 10 times in that situation.

RedsFanatic
08-12-2006, 01:42 AM
Agreed.

I can't blame folks for being mad, especially given that the winning run came in on a single.

However, I sincerely doubt EZ's chances to get Howard out 9 out of 10 times in that situation.

Howard is hitting around .290. So the odds are in Elizardo's favor to get him out.

marcshoe
08-12-2006, 01:44 AM
As to the odds of the inning playing out the way Narron thought it might, Rowand had grounded into double plays 10 times in around 400 plate appearances this year.

There are other scenarios that would have kept a run from scoring, but that's the one narron seemed to be counting on. I wonder what the percentages are for runs scoring from third with no out?

RedsFanBrooklyn
08-12-2006, 01:45 AM
Howard is hitting around .290. So the odds are in Elizardo's favor to get him out.

Very true.

He also got one out in the inning: the pitcher. So four others beat those odds.

KYRed
08-12-2006, 01:50 AM
Very true.

He also got one out in the inning: the pitcher. So four others beat those odds.

There weren't really 4 that "beat the odds" because Howard was given 1st base, he didn't earn it.

This decision may not be 100%, but it's about 99.95%. I'm not sure another big league manager walks Howard there.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 01:53 AM
This decision may not be 100%, but it's about 99.95%. I'm not sure another big league manager walks Howard there.

I'd agree if there was anyone besides a relief pitcher up next, that was the key behind the decision.

TOBTTReds
08-12-2006, 02:00 AM
Here's the difference between bad plays, and bad moves.

Bad plays happen when guys mechanically mis-execute a play (bad throw, missed catch, strikeouts).

Bad moves are made with the intention of making the move. Dunn didn't come to the plate hoping to strikeout. But...

Narron did:
Take out his 3 rbi's and 2 HR's to put in a fielder, at probably the least important position in the field instead of moving Freel to center and taking out Griffey (atleast Griffey is horrible in the field and plate).

Walk RH with men on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs in the 14th. Is he Babe Ruth x 2???

EDIT: How about having Dunn bunt with 2 on and 0 out in extras? I kind of wanted that, especially the way he was swinging. That is a toss up, but I'll add it.

---------

I'm not excusing the bad plays, but I'm saying they are made with effort, where as a bad move is made intentionally. Narron is mysterious to me.

RedsFanatic
08-12-2006, 02:05 AM
Here's the difference between bad plays, and bad moves.

Bad plays happen when guys mechanically mis-execute a play (bad throw, missed catch, strikeouts).

Bad moves are made with the intention of making the move. Dunn didn't come to the plate hoping to strikeout. But...

Narron did:
Take out his 3 rbi's and 2 HR's to put in a fielder, at probably the least important position in the field instead of moving Freel to center and taking out Griffey (atleast Griffey is horrible in the field and plate).

Walk RH with men on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs in the 14th. Is he Babe Ruth x 2???

---------

I'm not excusing the bad plays, but I'm saying they are made with effort, where as a bad move is made intentionally. Narron is mysterious to me.

Keep in mind that Jerry only let Castro play for a half of an inning:help:

TOBTTReds
08-12-2006, 02:10 AM
I have no idea how this team is in first still. It is unreal. Good comebacks I guess.

Narron is like a Resume. It doesn't get you the job, and can only keep you from getting it.

Narron won't get you the win, he can only keep you from winning.

Billy_Bearcat
08-12-2006, 02:11 AM
EDIT: How about having Dunn bunt with 2 on and 0 out in extras? I kind of wanted that, especially the way he was swinging. That is a toss up, but I'll add it.

That's an excellent point. Since when did certain players become too good to bunt?

marcshoe
08-12-2006, 02:14 AM
I'd agree if there was anyone besides a relief pitcher up next, that was the key behind the decision.

Relief pitchers would have had to have been coming up in the next two spots in order for that move to make sense. Of course, the way things were going tonight, that might have happened before long. :eek:

jnwohio
08-12-2006, 02:22 AM
What's scariest is that he continues to take the Reds best and hottest hitter out of games that are not decided. It's a joke...

Agreed. Everytime he makes that switch, I call it the prevent defense and recall the old Bob Trumpyism "the only thing a prevent defense prevents is victory".

With this bullpen, you need to have a lead that is a lot bigger than surrmountable by a bloop and a blast before you deploy all your defensive specialists. It was particularly hurtfull tonoite because then in the next half inning he had to burn both Castro and Clayton for pinch hitters and had no bench even before extra innings had started.

TOBTTReds
08-12-2006, 02:25 AM
Looking at the box score, you would think EdE got hurt.

realistic
08-12-2006, 02:39 AM
No excuse for walking the winning run to 3rd base with 0 outs. I dont care if Randy Johnson were on deck, its just plain foolish.

WVRedsFan
08-12-2006, 02:46 AM
Just so I get this right, fans of the Reds -- a team that has not even competed for the postseason since 1999, a team until recently managed by Dave Miley and Bob Boone -- think that the manager who has their team -- a team, mind you, picked dead last in the NL Central by every publication and pundit -- in the Wild Card lead in mid-August should be fired ASAP?

I'm all for hyperbole, but anyone honestly think this same exact team with Miley, Boone or some "established" guy like Jim Tracy managing would be int his position?

Is he perfect? Heck, no. But let's be reasonable.

Heh. Easy to be an apologist when the Cardinals are 28-31 in the same time period the Reds are 28-33. The NL is simply horrible this year. Apologize all you want, but ten to twelve wins can be put on the head of Jerry Narron this year regardless of whatever else happened.

His lineups and in-game moves defy description. His management of the pitching staff and bullpen are questionable at best. I can see this team with a lead in the division with most any experienced winning manager in charge. And don't give me Jim Tracy. What in the wide, wide world of sports make anyone think he is the gold standard by which managers should be judged. Look at the "sure bet" Pirates this year and the ullimited money of the Dodgers teams he led the last three years.

Our guy is cheap and convenient.

WVRedsFan
08-12-2006, 02:49 AM
What is this, the thread for eighth graders? My goodness people, back up your staements. It gets old hearing "Jerry's the greatest," "Jerry stinks," and "so does your mom." And none of those are backed up with anything by half of the posters on this thread. Geesh. Narron is neither the best or worst manager in the history of baseball. Both sides of this argument need to think a little bit. As for me, I'll flip flop after every game. :)

Jerry's winning percentage over his career is .475. Since June 3rd, his winning percentage as Reds manager is .459. He's never managed a winning team. He's our manager for next year. Do the math.

Not that it makes any difference, BTW. The Jerry love flows.

Sorry, but a winning record as the Reds manager is a work in progress. Let's look at it at the end of the season. I eat crow better than most and will be glad to do it.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 03:35 AM
Relief pitchers would have had to have been coming up in the next two spots in order for that move to make sense.

Well, I'm not sure I agree, but that's ok. If Narron pitches to Howard and he hits the game winning hit, this thread would be dedicated to bashing him for pitching to Howard and giving him the chance to beat us, just like when he decided to pitch to Pujols in St. Louis earlier in the season. How does the saying go? Damned if you do..........???

I question more why Harang was not allowed to pitch a few more innings. Fact of the matter is though, the decision to walk Howard was not what cost the team the game. Inept hitting when the chances were there and shoddy defense is what lost this game for the Reds.

TOBTTReds
08-12-2006, 11:59 AM
Well, I'm not sure I agree, but that's ok. If Narron pitches to Howard and he hits the game winning hit, this thread would be dedicated to bashing him for pitching to Howard and giving him the chance to beat us, just like when he decided to pitch to Pujols in St. Louis earlier in the season. How does the saying go? Damned if you do..........???


Completely different situation. Putting the winning run on 3rd with 0 outs is VERY different. Plus, Howard has some holes in his swing that we exposed last night that tells me we could have tried to get him to K (second highest in majors behind Dunner). If he gets the game winning hit, someone would have mentioned walking him here, then THEY would be the ones getting bashed. It just doesn't make sense.

dieselman44
08-12-2006, 12:19 PM
Well, I'm not sure I agree, but that's ok. If Narron pitches to Howard and he hits the game winning hit, this thread would be dedicated to bashing him for pitching to Howard and giving him the chance to beat us, just like when he decided to pitch to Pujols in St. Louis earlier in the season. How does the saying go? Damned if you do..........???

I question more why Harang was not allowed to pitch a few more innings. Fact of the matter is though, the decision to walk Howard was not what cost the team the game. Inept hitting when the chances were there and shoddy defense is what lost this game for the Reds.


I think that if Howard gets the game winning hit then this thread would be dedicated to bashing EZ not Narron.

As for some ppl that say"well this team was suppose to finish last" who cares what the "experst sports writers" pick teams to finish, whens the last time they were right. Jerry is a .500 manager at best, he makes the worst in-game desicions I personally have ever seen. Look at the reds record, two games over, I any normal season we would be 10 gams back from the wildcard, so all this Jerry has done good with this team talk is really pathetic. After given all the extra pieces I feel he actually should be doing BETTER.

SteelSD
08-12-2006, 12:36 PM
Completely different situation. Putting the winning run on 3rd with 0 outs is VERY different. Plus, Howard has some holes in his swing that we exposed last night that tells me we could have tried to get him to K (second highest in majors behind Dunner). If he gets the game winning hit, someone would have mentioned walking him here, then THEY would be the ones getting bashed. It just doesn't make sense.

That IBB doesn't make sense because it's nonsensical.

The Reds desperately needed the potential Out Howard represented. With the game tied in the bottom of the final Inning and 0 Outs, it's acceptable to IBB in the following situations:

Runner on 2nd
Runner on 3rd
Runners on 2nd and 3rd
Runners on 1st and 3rd

Narron would have a defense had the last scenario been in play because, in that situation, having an Out at any base is preferable to having no force potential at 3rd. Therefore, sometimes it's ok to suck it up and push a Runner to 2B. But that's an extreme scenario in which the IBB may be preferable situationally because the winning Run is already standing at 3B.

Basically, the least palatable of all acceptable possibilities would have been far better than Narron's unacceptable decision.

It appears that Narron walked Howard in order to (in his mind) preserve the possibility for victory. Problem is that he actually dramatically reduced win probability to the point of virtually conceding the ballgame. It's inexcusable for a MLB Manager to not realize that.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 01:03 PM
I think that if Howard gets the game winning hit then this thread would be dedicated to bashing EZ not Narron.


I doubt it. There was a lot of Narron bashing when he pitched to Pujols and he hit the walkoff home run in St. Louis, with the main emphasis being you should never pitch to him late in the game when he has a chance to beat you. The opposing argument? You don't walk a guy in that situation and put the winning run in scoring position. Not exactly the same situation, but somewhat similar.

EZ is still the one who gave up the game winning hit. This managing decision did not cost the Reds the loss.

jimbo
08-12-2006, 01:12 PM
Completely different situation. Putting the winning run on 3rd with 0 outs is VERY different.

It's a similar decision IMO.

Everyone here is judging the decision based on only looking at the surface. With a relief pitcher up next with only 3 at-bats all season, and Rowand up after him who has hit into 10 double plays this season, it was a sound decision as opposed to giving Howard the chance to beat you with one swing of the bat.

MaineRed
08-12-2006, 01:28 PM
Howard is hitting around .290. So the odds are in Elizardo's favor to get him out.

Based on how Elizardo has looked his last two appearances, I am not sure this is true. I bet the opponents are hitting well over .500 against him the last two times out and not many of them are Ryan Howard.

MaineRed
08-12-2006, 01:31 PM
Apologize all you want, but ten to twelve wins can be put on the head of Jerry Narron this year regardless of whatever else happened.

So the Reds should be somewhere around 70-45 in your opinion?

I don't even know how to respond, so I won't.

cincrazy
08-12-2006, 01:58 PM
Narron hasn't had an easy job. Between the 5,000 different relievers he's had at his disposal all season, and the dicey infield situation, he's handled it perfectly. We haven't heard anything out of the clubhouse about anyone being ticked off. Edwin didn't like sitting every day at first, but he didn't make a big deal out of it. That's a sign of a good manager. The guy's in the clubhouse respect his decisions, win or lose.

Highlifeman21
08-12-2006, 03:04 PM
Considering the solid hit to end the game, I think the point is moot.


Over a vastly drawn in infield, between vastly drawn in outfielders...

It's still horrible strategy to walk the bases loaded with no outs while being the visiting team. It's even worse strategy to bring the infield that far in when you could have played them at DP depth. There really wasn't anything Narron did right at all last night, which fell directly in line with everything else he's done this season.

Loving that extension Krivsky gave him....

cinredsfan2000
08-12-2006, 04:35 PM
My question about narron is what was his record before and after the contract extension? I Know Bob C. / Wayne K gave him the extension somewht early in the season right? Seems to me narron's descion making has taking a turn for the worst since the contract extension. But this also makes me wonder what might have a more established manager done in this situation say Lou Pinella or Davey Johnson ? :confused:

dieselman44
08-12-2006, 04:42 PM
If Tony LaRussa was managing this team we'd be 25 games above .500.

RedlegJake
08-13-2006, 09:43 AM
If Tony LaRussa was managing this team we'd be 25 games above .500.

I really hope that was sarcasm.

MaineRed
08-13-2006, 11:04 AM
I really hope that was sarcasm.

I don't think it was RedlegJake. A guy earlier blamed Narron for 10-12 losses. Make those wins and the Reds go from a few games over, to about 25 over. People actually believe this stuff.

The problem with this thinking is that people fail to remember the wins Narron got for a decision he made. The reason this is forgotten is because too often people are complaining about his moves, even when they work.

The thinking seems to be that when a team wins a game even though the manager has thrown out a flawed line-up, that game would of been a win, guaranteed, had Narron just used the correct line-up to begin with. These are wins in spite of the manager.

You know, Narron goes with Rich at third. Rich goes 2-4 with a HR and the Reds win. Does Narron get credit for playing Rich? Nope, people are too busy blaming him for not playing Edwin.

But if they lose, the loss is blamed ON Narron. And apparently there are 10-12 of these. We've won 0 because of our managers moves. But we've lost 10-12.

Narron only gets credited when his decisions don't work out.

NEVER is there credit given when they do. Words like, luck get thrown around instead.

25 games over .500? No way.

OUReds
08-13-2006, 12:32 PM
RE 99-02 0 Out 1 Out 2 Out
Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117
1st 0.953 0.573 0.251
2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344
3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387
1st_2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466
1st_3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538
2nd_3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634
Loaded 2.417 1.650 0.815



Above is the run scoring scoring probabilities given the 24 possible out/baserunner situations using data from the 1999-2002 seasons. (from http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html )

Lets ignore the obvious difference between bases loaded and zero outs and 1st and 2nd with no out. Given the pitcher was up the rationale was clearly that bases loaded one out is better then 1st and 2nd zero outs. What the data shows is that bases loaded one out is still an inferior situation (with an average of 1.65 runs scoring) on average then first and second zero outs (avg. 1.57 runs). When you factor in the very real chance that the pitcher might have driven in the run from third, the decision looks even worse from a pure probablility standpoint.

I understand the this doesn't take into account that Ryan Howard is better then your average player, but even so I don't see how this move can be defended as statistically wise.

Further, one of the best possible outcomes would have been an out without moving the runner to third with less then two outs. Who is the most likely batter to strike out in the Philly's lineup? Ryan Howard.

RedFanAlways1966
08-13-2006, 01:39 PM
Jerry's winning percentage over his career is .475. Since June 3rd, his winning percentage as Reds manager is .459. He's never managed a winning team. He's our manager for next year. Do the math.

Not that it makes any difference, BTW. The Jerry love flows.

Sorry, but a winning record as the Reds manager is a work in progress. Let's look at it at the end of the season. I eat crow better than most and will be glad to do it.

Let's look at some other MLB managers using this line of thinking...

* Connie Mack (Hall of Fame, 1937)
> Career record: 3731-3948 (.486)
>> Hall of Fame? How did that happen?

* Joe Torre
> First 5 years as a manager: 286-420 (.380)
>> How many years has Narron been managing?
>> Does managing high-paying teams vs. low-paying teams (nice setup there, MLB) matter? DOES IT?
>> Think Joe Torre might get consideration for the Hall?

* Pete Rose
> 6 years: 412-373 (.525)
>> Only 1 losing season.
>> Playoffs? ZERO for those who didn't know.

Ltlabner
08-13-2006, 04:34 PM
Let's look at some other MLB managers using this line of thinking...

* Connie Mack (Hall of Fame, 1937)
> Career record: 3731-3948 (.486)
>> Hall of Fame? How did that happen?

* Joe Torre
> First 5 years as a manager: 286-420 (.380)
>> How many years has Narron been managing?
>> Does managing high-paying teams vs. low-paying teams (nice setup there, MLB) matter? DOES IT?
>> Think Joe Torre might get consideration for the Hall?

* Pete Rose
> 6 years: 412-373 (.525)
>> Only 1 losing season.
>> Playoffs? ZERO for those who didn't know.


Please, please. Don't let facts and logic get in the way of a good old fashion hate Jerry session.