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Wheelhouse
08-12-2006, 01:05 PM
This is not an overall rip of Narron. I don't understand manager's saying "I don't want so-and-so to beat us." That is ridiculous, because last night, Howard beat us--beacause Narron felt he had to walk him. A player can win by swinging the bat, or by the presence of his bat. There's no factoring out a player from a game. It's strictly an issue of percentages, and when there is bases loaded and no outs, I would bet the team scores 80-90% of the time. Insane thinking to not want a certain "player to beat you." Play the percentages.

TheBigLebowski
08-12-2006, 01:29 PM
As I stated in my Narron rant, We've got a 60-65% chance to record an out on Howard (factoring a higher% of failure due to the fact that the Lizard was pitching), and in the scenario in which we record an out, approx a 30% chance of a DP. The pitcher followed. MUCH higher percentages for success than walking the freaking bases loaded with no outs in extras as a visitor. Our chances of a positive outcome in that scenario are approximately what you estimate, 10-15%.

Ludicrous managing. That call is not one I will be able to forget anytime soon.

GAC
08-12-2006, 09:44 PM
I said this on the other thread (I'm lazy, so I "cut n pasted" it here)....

You'd rather pitch to the guy who is leading the NL in Hrs and RBIs in that situation with the pitcher due up next? They were already in a pinch with two men on - take the bat out of this guy's hand and if anyone is gonna beat you then it's gonna be the pitcher not a Howard. The pitcher came up with bases loaded and that presents greater possibilities/odds (as slim as they were) to get out of the inning. And he did K.

Yes, the odds were against us in that situation; but I'd sure rather not take those chances vs Howard.

A 70% chance of getting Howard out? You get the pitcher out (which they did) and then induce a groundball, you have the opp for a DP, force out at home, and getting out of the inning. Once you get that first out, then it opens up greater possibilities. But you gotta get that first out.

And also remember - Howard is no speedster at 1B. An INF GB and you have an excellent chance of a DP and to get out of that inning.

Phhhl
08-12-2006, 11:27 PM
I said this on the other thread (I'm lazy, so I "cut n pasted" it here)....

You'd rather pitch to the guy who is leading the NL in Hrs and RBIs in that situation with the pitcher due up next? They were already in a pinch with two men on - take the bat out of this guy's hand and if anyone is gonna beat you then it's gonna be the pitcher not a Howard. The pitcher came up with bases loaded and that presents greater possibilities/odds (as slim as they were) to get out of the inning. And he did K.

Yes, the odds were against us in that situation; but I'd sure rather not take those chances vs Howard.

A 70% chance of getting Howard out? You get the pitcher out (which they did) and then induce a groundball, you have the opp for a DP, force out at home, and getting out of the inning. Once you get that first out, then it opens up greater possibilities. But you gotta get that first out.

And also remember - Howard is no speedster at 1B. An INF GB and you have an excellent chance of a DP and to get out of that inning.

Wolf didn't k. He hit a screamer to short that Aurilia nabbed for the first out of the inning.

The thing is, the difference between a runner at 2nd and a runner at 3rd with no outs seems to be vast to me. I don't know the numbers statistically, but the lead runner was the only guy that mattered in that situation. By advancing him to third with no outs, no matter who was at the plate, was basically suicide.

Dumb move.

TheBigLebowski
08-12-2006, 11:31 PM
I said this on the other thread (I'm lazy, so I "cut n pasted" it here)....

You'd rather pitch to the guy who is leading the NL in Hrs and RBIs in that situation with the pitcher due up next? They were already in a pinch with two men on - take the bat out of this guy's hand and if anyone is gonna beat you then it's gonna be the pitcher not a Howard. The pitcher came up with bases loaded and that presents greater possibilities/odds (as slim as they were) to get out of the inning. And he did K.

Yes, the odds were against us in that situation; but I'd sure rather not take those chances vs Howard.

A 70% chance of getting Howard out? You get the pitcher out (which they did) and then induce a groundball, you have the opp for a DP, force out at home, and getting out of the inning. Once you get that first out, then it opens up greater possibilities. But you gotta get that first out.

And also remember - Howard is no speedster at 1B. An INF GB and you have an excellent chance of a DP and to get out of that inning.


The trick in completing double plays is not getting the runner at first. In most circumstances, the hard thing is getting the hitter out. If we'd have pitched to Howard and he hit a ground ball, easy DP. The degree of difficulty in turning a DP with Howard at 1B instead of Utley does not change.

reds44
08-13-2006, 12:28 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060812&content_id=1606433&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


Major respect: Ryan Howard, coming into his two-on, nobody-out plate appearance in the 14th inning on Friday, was batting just .236 with runners in scoring position.That didn't matter one bit to Narron, who took the route he took in Howard's last two trips, walking the Phillies slugger intentionally.

"I don't care what it is," Narron said of Howard's average in the key spots. "All I know is when he steps in that box, he's in scoring position."

"It's a compliment, I guess, if the coach is looking at you like that, to where they're going to walk you to load the bases and put the winning run on," Howard said. "But the competitive spirit within wants to go out there and do something."

The walk to Howard loaded the bases for pitcher Aaron Fultz, who lined out. Aaron Rowand followed with a game-winning RBI single.

"You've got a pitcher hitting behind him," Narron said. "We were hoping for a strikeout and a double play and get out of it. Everybody in baseball knows what kind of hitter [Howard] is. He's one of the best RBI guys in baseball. I think it's a no-brainer."

Johnny Footstool
08-13-2006, 01:29 PM
Great strategy if you need only one out. When you need 3 outs, it's ridiculous.

As for Howard being in scoring position when he steps into the box, SO WHAT? His run isn't the one that matters.

Spring~Fields
08-13-2006, 01:59 PM
I said this on the other thread (I'm lazy, so I "cut n pasted" it here)....

You'd rather pitch to the guy who is leading the NL in Hrs and RBIs in that situation with the pitcher due up next? They were already in a pinch with two men on - take the bat out of this guy's hand and if anyone is gonna beat you then it's gonna be the pitcher not a Howard. The pitcher came up with bases loaded and that presents greater possibilities/odds (as slim as they were) to get out of the inning. And he did K.

Yes, the odds were against us in that situation; but I'd sure rather not take those chances vs Howard.

A 70% chance of getting Howard out? You get the pitcher out (which they did) and then induce a groundball, you have the opp for a DP, force out at home, and getting out of the inning. Once you get that first out, then it opens up greater possibilities. But you gotta get that first out.

And also remember - Howard is no speedster at 1B. An INF GB and you have an excellent chance of a DP and to get out of that inning.

Correct me if I am wrong please.
He walks the guy to load the bases one night with no one out and then the next night he pitches to the same guy with two outs, both times with the game on the line. If I am correct, I don't understand the managers inconsistent strategy.

Crash Davis
08-13-2006, 02:09 PM
Ryan Howard 2007:

131 K's
123 Hits
29.4% hits per at bat
31.3% K's per at bat

When you took the bat out of his hands, you also took the strikeout out of your own hands.