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Team Clark
08-12-2006, 08:49 PM
In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.

keeganbrick
08-12-2006, 08:54 PM
I wouldnt judge on how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs by comparing him to Scott Mathieson.

Razor Shines
08-12-2006, 08:57 PM
In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.
Wow I have been wondering how his curve was coming along, 4 out 18 sounds like it's not.

keeganbrick
08-12-2006, 08:58 PM
That was Homer's worst outing at AA this year as far as control is concerned. He also gave up what, 1 run even with those 5 or 6 walks he had through 6 innings.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 08:59 PM
I wouldnt judge on how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs by comparing him to Scott Mathieson.

I absolutely would. I have seen both pitch in person. Bailey 3 times. Mathieson 4. Are they exactly the same? Nope. HOWEVER, delivery, arm speed, pitches, arm action, finish, and projectability are almost all equal. Bailey has a higher ceiling in my opinion.

Sham
08-12-2006, 09:00 PM
Thanks for the info TC, always insightful.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 09:01 PM
Wow I have been wondering how his curve was coming along, 4 out 18 sounds like it's not.


What's more amazing is that he is throwing 90+% Fastballs and is dominating. His fastaballs are straight as an arrow. Fortunately he has good deception and they just happen to be coming in at 96 MPH on avg.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 09:02 PM
That was Homer's worst outing at AA this year as far as control is concerned. He also gave up what, 1 run even with those 5 or 6 walks he had through 6 innings.

Hey, I'm not saying Homer is crap. He's just not ready. He also touched 98MPH on the gun a handful of times. Not too shabby.

dman
08-12-2006, 09:08 PM
I wouldnt judge on how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs by comparing him to Scott Mathieson.
Just in case you were wondering, Team Clark has probably forgotten more about how to judge prospects than most of us will ever know. I'm not saying you were getting into a pissing match with him, but it appeared to be headed that way. A wise person on this board once told me not to get into a pissing match with an empty bladder. Believe me, Team Clark has a full bladder when it comes to scouting and prospect topics.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 09:14 PM
Just in case you were wondering, Team Clark has probably forgotten more about how to judge prospects than most of us will ever know. I'm not saying you were getting into a pissing match with him, but it appeared to be headed that way. A wise person on this board once told me not to get into a pissing match with an empty bladder. Believe me, Team Clark has a full bladder when it comes to scouting and prospect topics.

dman, I appreciate the comments. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. That is what makes this board so great. Thanks again for the kind words. I'm pretty good at my job but I am no Roy Clark.

keeganbrick
08-12-2006, 09:15 PM
I'm aware of what Team Clark does, Im not tryin to argue with his knowledge. I just believe Homer Bailey would be able to pitch to the Reds and not give up 6 ER in 3 1/3 innings though.

Razor Shines
08-12-2006, 09:16 PM
Just in case you were wondering, Team Clark has probably forgotten more about how to judge prospects than most of us will ever know. I'm not saying you were getting into a pissing match with him, but it appeared to be headed that way. A wise person on this board once told me not to get into a pissing match with an empty bladder. Believe me, Team Clark has a full bladder when it comes to scouting and prospect topics.
That's funny. I actually had just posted in the game thread how I didn't think there was a comparison between Mathieson and Bailey, but edited my post and completely changed my opinion (or it was changed after I was made aware of new info) after reading TC's post. Some might think that is stupid, but I've never seen Bailey pitch and TC has, I don't have a problem admitting when someone knows more than I.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 09:17 PM
I'm aware of what Team Clark does, Im not tryin to argue with his knowledge. I just believe Homer Bailey would be able to pitch to the Reds and not give up 6 ER in 4 1/3 innings though.

It would be pretty cool to see him come up and pull a Jared Weaver.

Sham
08-12-2006, 09:17 PM
TC you are the only reason I still read this board. Thanks for the real info.

dman
08-12-2006, 09:18 PM
dman, I appreciate the comments. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. That is what makes this board so great. Thanks again for the kind words. I'm pretty good at my job but I am no Roy Clark.
You're right. I never want to deter somebody from expressing opinions. And sometimes things that are written (typed) come across a lot differently than what somebody wanted to convey.

But you sir, are a welath of info when it comes to your trade, and I'm more than happy to stick up for you and pay you due hommage.

keeganbrick
08-12-2006, 09:18 PM
No, no, not the guy for the Cardinals...oh you mean for the Angels.:devil:

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 09:24 PM
That's funny. I actually had just posted in the game thread how I didn't think there was a comparison between Mathieson and Bailey, but edited my post and completely changed my opinion (or it was changed after I was made aware of new info) after reading TC's post. Some might think that is stupid, but I've never seen Bailey pitch and TC has, I don't have a problem admitting when someone knows more than I.

Bailey has all the tools and makeup of a sharp #1 pitching prospect. There's just a little more to it than that. I'll give you an idea of what I am talking about. I caught throughout my career and have caught guys with ridiculous "stuff" i.e. Isringhausen, Percival, K-Rod, Pulsipher before he went coo-koo and many others. When I first caught Izzy he only had a good fastball. Then came the slider and THEN came a really nice curve. It took him quite some time to pull all of that together. K-Rod's slider was so amazing in Angels camp that Big leaguers were coming over to watch him throw. This was in 2002 before anyone had really heard of him. Percival almost broke my thumb on several occasions.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 09:25 PM
You're right. I never want to deter somebody from expressing opinions. And sometimes things that are written (typed) come across a lot differently than what somebody wanted to convey.

But you sir, are a welath of info when it comes to your trade, and I'm more than happy to stick up for you and pay you due hommage.

Sham and dman thank you both for the comments.

LoganBuck
08-12-2006, 09:54 PM
TC, did you ever catch Paul Wilson as a youngster? What did you think of him. I have heard some say he had similar stuff to Bailey at one time.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 10:00 PM
Yes. I caught Paul on many occasions. Mostly while he was rehabbing in Norfolk. He was pretty much finished back then. He was "scared" to throw. He kept expecting the pain to come back. I was just talking to Rob Dibble about that a few days ago. Because of the fact that he wouldn't go full out on his pitches he threw poorly. Every year that he has been in the big leagues, except one, he has given up more hits than innings pitched because he is VERY hittable. When he first came on the scene he truly was a phenom. 4 pitches for strikes including a 95+ MPH FB. Hit all of his spots and the disparity in speeds between pitches was very unsettling. I wished I had that kind of talent.

I saw him throw up close at GAB and he was about the same or worse. Having said all of that.... Paul Wilson is one of the nicest, classiest professionals I know. He's the type of person that most of us aspire to be. He makes Casey look like a punk. That's how good of a guy Paul is.

redssouth
08-12-2006, 10:59 PM
Completely agre TC... Met Paul Wilson and Danny Graves in at Atlanta, hung out with them all night, in a hotel bar, talked baseball, they were super nice and respectful to my wife. Paul Wilson was just a super cool guy, and not your typical ball player. Met a lot of the guys, only one guy wasnt very friendly. Great experience. And after hanging out all night, we showed up for BP the next day in ATL, got their attention, and they came over and talked to us, and threw a couple of baseballs our way. Really awesome guys.

Team Clark
08-12-2006, 11:01 PM
Completely agre TC... Met Paul Wilson and Danny Graves in at Atlanta, hung out with them all night, in a hotel bar, talked baseball, they were super nice and respectful to my wife. Paul Wilson was just a super cool guy, and not your typical ball player. Met a lot of the guys, only one guy wasnt very friendly. Great experience. And after hanging out all night, we showed up for BP the next day in ATL, got their attention, and they came over and talked to us, and threw a couple of baseballs our way. Really awesome guys.

Good to hear. I knew Danny pretty well. Always cool with me. I'd What year was that? I'd like to take a guess at who the not so nice person was... We can do it via PM.

2001MUgrad
08-12-2006, 11:27 PM
TC,

Great info. Earlier on in the year they were using the excuse about him holding runners on. But after hearing more and seeing him in the Futures Game its painfully obvious that all he has is a fastball. With that being said. Most 1 inning relief pitchers can get by on having 1 real good pitch and 1 so-so pitch. Could Bailey in your opinion help this team now out of the Bullpen??

TeamBoone
08-12-2006, 11:40 PM
I'm aware of what Team Clark does, Im not tryin to argue with his knowledge. I just believe Homer Bailey would be able to pitch to the Reds and not give up 6 ER in 3 1/3 innings though.

Maybe, but believe it or not, so could some other guys in the Reds rotation.

And, in the long run, it would hurt Homer more than it would help. Just because he can whoop on AA batters, does not guarantee he'd do the same in the bigs... more than likely, the whooping would be on the other foot.

MikeS21
08-13-2006, 12:53 AM
In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.
My greatest peeve is that I'm not sure there is anyone in the Reds' system who knows how to fix the "mechanical" problems of pitchers.

My second greatest peeve is that you can have ten or fifteen people on this board who can spot mechanical trouble and pitch tipping, etc., and yet no one in the organization seems to catch it. And if you do get word to someone in the organization, they seem to laugh it off as internet fodder and still don't see any problems after they have been alerted to it.

That'swhy I enjoy TC's posts and observations so much. I figure sooner or later, someone will listen.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 01:06 AM
TC,

Great info. Earlier on in the year they were using the excuse about him holding runners on. But after hearing more and seeing him in the Futures Game its painfully obvious that all he has is a fastball. With that being said. Most 1 inning relief pitchers can get by on having 1 real good pitch and 1 so-so pitch. Could Bailey in your opinion help this team now out of the Bullpen??

No. The Reds need to groom him as a starting pitcher. There is a process involved in that. They do not need to "break the cycle" just to help the bullpen. IMO.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 01:07 AM
Maybe, but believe it or not, so could some other guys in the Reds rotation.

And, in the long run, it would hurt Homer more than it would help. Just because he can whoop on AA batters, does not guarantee he'd do the same in the bigs... more than likely, the whooping would be on the other foot.

You tell 'em baby. I got your back. When are we going to go eat anyway?

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 01:10 AM
That'swhy I enjoy TC's posts and observations so much. I figure sooner or later, someone will listen.

You would think so. I have passed quite a bit on but I'm not sure it has sunk in. People in Baseball stay pretty tight with one another and often try to help each other out. Occasionally you get some folks who have too much pride and can not accept what you say or what you are seeing. It's a shame but what are you going to do? I guess you just laugh.

You are correct that the Reds do have a lot of "bottom of the barrell" coaches. Not all of them are bad, but most are. Most unqualified LOWEST bidder gets the job.

reds44
08-13-2006, 01:41 AM
In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate. He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.
When I talked to Hal in Houston he told me the same type of thing. I agree Homer isn't ready.

SanDiegoRed
08-13-2006, 01:45 AM
I am ready for bed like 3 hours ago but i am enjoying the hell out of this conversation.

Doc. Scott
08-13-2006, 01:51 AM
In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.

I like the comparison of Mathieson. Scott hadn't pitched above AA and also hadn't really dominated the lower levels. But because he has the velocity and really looks like a big-league pitcher, here he is at age 22. He got the callup because he'd suddenly started seeing the wins for half a season.

And like TC said, once the Reds figured out it was the ol' number one and pray for rain, they got to him.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 01:51 AM
I am ready for bed like 3 hours ago but i am enjoying the hell out of this conversation.

Me too. :laugh: Long Day. I spent the day in the dugout and almost got thrown. I normally do not give the umps a real hard time because I caught for so long I gained a great feal of respect for them. On the flip side, if you are terrible and you affect the outcome of the game and intentionally do so to be a jerk.... I will be certain to let you know.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 01:54 AM
I like the comparison of Mathieson. Scott hadn't pitched above AA and also hadn't really dominated the lower levels. But because he has the velocity and really looks like a big-league pitcher, here he is at age 22. He got the callup because he'd suddenly started seeing the wins for half a season.

And like TC said, once the Reds figured out it was the ol' number one and pray for rain, they got to him.


Great points (as usual) Doc. That's why I was a little hardline on my defense. Of all the guys in the big leagues I thought Mathieson was the absolute closest in comparison. Not just experience but the entire package.

SanDiegoRed
08-13-2006, 01:54 AM
I had to go to a family fuction tonight and missed the game...Thank God for this board and the insights here. I live and die with the Reds and have for over 35 years. Its nice to have something exciting to talk about for a change. Its been awhile.

Razor Shines
08-13-2006, 01:57 AM
Me too. :laugh: Long Day. I spent the day in the dugout and almost got thrown. I normally do not give the umps a real hard time because I caught for so long I gained a great feal of respect for them. On the flip side, if you are terrible and you affect the outcome of the game and intentionally do so to be a jerk.... I will be certain to let you know.
I umpire high school and I am the same way when I go to my younger brother's games (he's in high school). When I ump I have no problem getting yelled at by coaches as long as they know the rules. I cannot believe the number of coaches that don't know what they are talking about. I'm only 24 so to an older coach it's obviously me that doesn't know the rules, oh that makes me so angry.

2001MUgrad
08-13-2006, 02:01 AM
No. The Reds need to groom him as a starting pitcher. There is a process involved in that. They do not need to "break the cycle" just to help the bullpen. IMO.

If he is this far away, I would think 2007 is out of the question? When will he be ready if he stays on course. He is what 20, no rush. just curious.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 02:01 AM
I umpire high school and I am the same way when I go to my younger brother's games (he's in high school). When I ump I have no problem getting yelled at by coaches as long as they know the rules. I cannot believe the number of coaches that don't know what they are talking about. I'm only 24 so to an older coach it's obviously me that doesn't know the rules, oh that makes me so angry.


I saw stuff today that was just flat out insane. One umpire told our Manager "You better get him outta here", so our skip says "Why??.. he knows more than you do" LOL! :laugh: I just had to laugh.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 02:06 AM
If he is this far away, I would think 2007 is out of the question? When will he be ready if he stays on course. He is what 20, no rush. just curious.

I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.

Razor Shines
08-13-2006, 02:13 AM
I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.
I've never seen him pitch. Can he throw his fastball where he wants atleast? Or is he just putting it down the middle and throwing it hard enough to dominate at AA?

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 02:24 AM
I've never seen him pitch. Can he throw his fastball where he wants atleast? Or is he just putting it down the middle and throwing it hard enough to dominate at AA?


His control of the FB is pretty good but his command is not great. Once he gets rid of that overstride he will be able to command the FB better. If he had excellent command of his FB right now and could get 50% of his breaking balls over I would say give him the last start of the year, provided the Reds are in the Playoffs. That experience could give him something to really grown on in the off-season. BUT, he does not have that type of command. These guys in AA are good hitters but continue to fail to make small adjustments to jump on him.

I'd rather see him develop a great slider. It's the same plane as the FB and with his power behind it...whew. Probably untochable. Easier to teach and you will get quicker results. He could continue to work on that curve in his bullpen sessions. But hey...what do I know? Rijo had a pretty nice run with it. He just threw it too much.

jmcclain19
08-13-2006, 02:41 AM
Bailey to me strikes me as a guy who needs to be pushed to succeed. Look at what he's done since he was in ST this year.

Didn't really do well at all last year, but the hope still shined bright and glimmered from time to time. Based on the 2005 performance, He probably should have started the year off in Dayton, but excelled in ST and was placed in Sarasota. Once again, he didn't really blow anyone away there, but his stuff was still good, so the Reds challenged him and he stepped up.

Have to wonder if the Reds keep doing that, at some point he's going to have to self motivate.

But he just seems to me to be that type. Can't really get up for the Pirates game, but against the Cards he's threatening a no-no. Not that I know anything inside or have any unpublished knowledge, just a gut feeling.

forfreelin04
08-13-2006, 08:57 AM
I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.


TC, thanks for all your insights its nice to actually read about how the game is played for a change then well you know haha. I cant believe Homer is actually consciously throwing a change slow. This truly shows is immaturity to be a ML ready SP. I did that when I started throwing a straight change in HS. Of course I didnt throw 96. Amazingly I still had tendon problems anyways. Now I can firmly agree with all those parents and coaches that told my Dad throwing an excess amount of roundhouse curves at a young age would mess up my shoulder. I had to chuckle when Arroyo said he could throw 125 pitches a game because his breaking stuff allows him to take the strain off his arm. Funny he said that before the AS break.
I havent seen him throw since Dayton but is he still throwing arrows to the plate? I always thought a guy with the natural gift to throw a baseball at such speed could benefit from throwing two separate fastballs simply with different grips. One that rose and then one that moved away from a right handed hitter. He should throw the changeup preferably circle since it will cut down the speed of the pitch and have better movement. Then mix in a nice drop curve which could be thrown at full speed for a sharp break on the inside corner and/or throw the same curve Daid Wells esque just for good measure. Oh and hed have to get them all over the plate when necessary. Then I think Reds fans would get the ACE they want.

On a side note, with EZ getting demoted and his recent problems on the mount I beg to ask has he been tipping his pitches? I havent see him pitch on TV being in the dreaded Cleveland area but Id be willing to bet so. Amazing how this happens twice a year it seems and yet the Reds coaching staff doesnt catch onto it until its too late.

Newman4
08-13-2006, 10:26 AM
TC, I have a few questions regarding Homer that you may be able to help with:

1. What has happened to his curveball? His draft write up/scouting report says this: "11/5 CB W/ TIGHT ROTATION, SHARP K ZONE BITE WHEN OUT FRONT" and Baseball America graded it a 70 as early as last year and described as a 'plus pitch'. BA also mentioned Homer working on 'refining' his change last year and in another article discuss his 'plus command of all three pitches'. Has he regressed due to his success with his fastball?

2. Doesn't Homer throw harder than Mathieson on a consistent basis? I have heard Homer compared to A.J. Burnett in terms of velocity with his fastball. Up until recently, I would think Homer would have better control than Mathieson as well, thus better results

By the way, I agree with you about the slider. If he can't get the curve going this season, then working on a slider in the off season could make all the difference.

BuckWoody
08-13-2006, 10:58 AM
It would be pretty cool to see him come up and pull a Jared Weaver.
I'd like to nominate this post for understatement of the year. :D


I would not rule 2007 out. Sept 2007 might be OK if he keeps progressing. You need to throw a lot of innings to refine pitches. He needs some movement on his FB, he's a little long in his stride which is preventing him from turning that breaking ball over. His change is flat because he is slowing his arm down to "conciously" throw a change. You needs INNINGS to get that worked out. Bad part is he needs innings with a really good instructor hooked to his hip. The Reds really do not have one.
What are the chances of getting Mario Soto to come back to the organization full-time? It seemed like he was really doing a good job teaching that nasty change of his in spring training. I'm not 100% clear on his reasons for leaving Louisville earlier this season...I certainly hope there is no rift between him and the club. Seems like we could attach him to Homer's hip and it would do wonders.

Jr's Boy
08-13-2006, 01:25 PM
If anyone can find Homer's quote after the futures game where he said ''my fastball is my best pitch and that they want me to work on a change up and curve but my fastball is my best pitch''.That wasn't the exact quote,but I do remember reading him say that after the game.

redsfan4445
08-13-2006, 02:40 PM
Yes. I caught Paul on many occasions. Mostly while he was rehabbing in Norfolk. He was pretty much finished back then. He was "scared" to throw. He kept expecting the pain to come back. I was just talking to Rob Dibble about that a few days ago. Because of the fact that he wouldn't go full out on his pitches he threw poorly. Every year that he has been in the big leagues, except one, he has given up more hits than innings pitched because he is VERY hittable. When he first came on the scene he truly was a phenom. 4 pitches for strikes including a 95+ MPH FB. Hit all of his spots and the disparity in speeds between pitches was very unsettling. I wished I had that kind of talent.

I saw him throw up close at GAB and he was about the same or worse. Having said all of that.... Paul Wilson is one of the nicest, classiest professionals I know. He's the type of person that most of us aspire to be. He makes Casey look like a punk. That's how good of a guy Paul is.

TC.. last season, i was watching Paul pitch (look at his last 3 starts before his injury), and he was constantly throwing across his body which will strain your rotater... his left leg was like stiff as he came thru on his pitches.. his mechanics were ALL messed up..I actualy wrote the Reds saying he was a arm injury waiting to happen. and 2 starts later he gets hurt!.. did he always pitch this way? even when he thru 95mph? Also Tom Hume in a interview with the Creeper said he didnt focus on mechanics.. HOW in the WORLD can he be a pitching coach?? This is what has also baffled me about when Milton doesnt finish off his pitches and nobody doesnt question that and later find out he has a knee injury!!.. its obvious if you look at his no-hitter game he pitched.. he was extending to the plate and he hardly ever does that with the reds..i always thought he had a groin problem or a knee problem. He always loooked like he was trying to throw flat instead of finishing off his pitches!!
if he has a knee problem.. it wont be long before he hurts his arm.. plus if he doesnt extend towards the plate.., every pitch stays up and is very hittable!!.. im not trying to be a no-it-all, its just basic pitching priniciples.. and it bothers me Tom Hume doesnt see this!!!

anyway i always enjoy your insites as well..

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 03:41 PM
TC, thanks for all your insights its nice to actually read about how the game is played for a change then well you know haha. I cant believe Homer is actually consciously throwing a change slow. This truly shows is immaturity to be a ML ready SP. I did that when I started throwing a straight change in HS. Of course I didnt throw 96. Amazingly I still had tendon problems anyways. Now I can firmly agree with all those parents and coaches that told my Dad throwing an excess amount of roundhouse curves at a young age would mess up my shoulder. I had to chuckle when Arroyo said he could throw 125 pitches a game because his breaking stuff allows him to take the strain off his arm. Funny he said that before the AS break.
I havent seen him throw since Dayton but is he still throwing arrows to the plate? I always thought a guy with the natural gift to throw a baseball at such speed could benefit from throwing two separate fastballs simply with different grips. One that rose and then one that moved away from a right handed hitter. He should throw the changeup preferably circle since it will cut down the speed of the pitch and have better movement. Then mix in a nice drop curve which could be thrown at full speed for a sharp break on the inside corner and/or throw the same curve Daid Wells esque just for good measure. Oh and hed have to get them all over the plate when necessary. Then I think Reds fans would get the ACE they want.

On a side note, with EZ getting demoted and his recent problems on the mount I beg to ask has he been tipping his pitches? I havent see him pitch on TV being in the dreaded Cleveland area but Id be willing to bet so. Amazing how this happens twice a year it seems and yet the Reds coaching staff doesnt catch onto it until its too late.

Yes, Homer is still throwing arrows. I'm not sure why he is not throwing a dominant 2 seamer. Probably because they do not have anyone to teach it.

EZ... I believe he was. Actaully from what I saw and some others had said was that it was his front leg that was giving it away. He would bring up his leg high for a fastball and maybe 3/4 for a breaking ball to get in a position to rotate down quicker. I know that he has fallen in love with that change. That is Javy's fault.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 03:45 PM
TC, I have a few questions regarding Homer that you may be able to help with:

1. What has happened to his curveball? His draft write up/scouting report says this: "11/5 CB W/ TIGHT ROTATION, SHARP K ZONE BITE WHEN OUT FRONT" and Baseball America graded it a 70 as early as last year and described as a 'plus pitch'. BA also mentioned Homer working on 'refining' his change last year and in another article discuss his 'plus command of all three pitches'. Has he regressed due to his success with his fastball?

2. Doesn't Homer throw harder than Mathieson on a consistent basis? I have heard Homer compared to A.J. Burnett in terms of velocity with his fastball. Up until recently, I would think Homer would have better control than Mathieson as well, thus better results

By the way, I agree with you about the slider. If he can't get the curve going this season, then working on a slider in the off season could make all the difference.

1) When he throws it for a strike IT IS A PLUS pitch. The "When out front" statement tells it all. When behind he's all over with it. You have to consistently repeat your delivery to be a successful Major League pitcher.

2) Homer throws 2-3 Mph faster on occasion. They both sit at 94-95. That's plenty good in my book. AJ's ball EXPLODES in the zone. Homer's looks like it is on a clothes line. No comparison.

Thanks for the questions. Really good stuff.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 03:47 PM
I'd like to nominate this post for understatement of the year. :D


What are the chances of getting Mario Soto to come back to the organization full-time? It seemed like he was really doing a good job teaching that nasty change of his in spring training. I'm not 100% clear on his reasons for leaving Louisville earlier this season...I certainly hope there is no rift between him and the club. Seems like we could attach him to Homer's hip and it would do wonders.

I am sure Mario will be back. There is no rift. I saw Mario in Louisville when he was the interim guy. He was working with Lizard. I did a game report if you can find it archived. Mario had not seen his family in a month and has several business concerns at home. He really needed to get back. Real shame because he is big league pitching coach material.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 03:57 PM
TC.. last season, i was watching Paul pitch (look at his last 3 starts before his injury), and he was constantly throwing across his body which will strain your rotater... his left leg was like stiff as he came thru on his pitches.. his mechanics were ALL messed up..I actualy wrote the Reds saying he was a arm injury waiting to happen. and 2 starts later he gets hurt!.. did he always pitch this way? even when he thru 95mph? Also Tom Hume in a interview with the Creeper said he didnt focus on mechanics.. HOW in the WORLD can he be a pitching coach?? This is what has also baffled me about when Milton doesnt finish off his pitches and nobody doesnt question that and later find out he has a knee injury!!.. its obvious if you look at his no-hitter game he pitched.. he was extending to the plate and he hardly ever does that with the reds..i always thought he had a groin problem or a knee problem. He always loooked like he was trying to throw flat instead of finishing off his pitches!!
if he has a knee problem.. it wont be long before he hurts his arm.. plus if he doesnt extend towards the plate.., every pitch stays up and is very hittable!!.. im not trying to be a no-it-all, its just basic pitching priniciples.. and it bothers me Tom Hume doesnt see this!!!

anyway i always enjoy your insites as well..

Great point and observations. You have to look at it this way. (Took me YEARS to finally believe in this) Paul was already injured. He would not tell anyone so he began to favor different areas of his body forcing his mechanics to go south as he continued to compensate. Your observations are correct, just reverse the cause and effect.

When I first caught Paul he was lights out. Mark Prior like mechanics. Smooth and sneaky. That was one time. Then the next time I caught him about a year, year and a half later he was toast. He was just afraid to throw. Soto went through that after rotator cuff surgery.

As far as Hume not saying he doesn't focus on mechanics. Don't take that too far out of context. Big Leaguers for the most part have pretty solid mechanics coming in. What you are searching for is that "feeling" that goes with making a perfect pitch. Anyone who has ever hit or pitched knows what I am talking about. Even Golf. (RFS62 will appreciate this) When you have your mechanics down everything is effortless. That's what a pitching coach is trying to get you back to. Mechanics are not always the answer. 90% it's our head that screws us up. Hume is really sharp with Mechanics. You have to realize that he is getting a lot of guys coming up that have been poorly coached. That is a WHOLE LOT of extra work for a pitching coach. Lee Tunnel has yet to impress me. (Not that he has too)

Reds Nd2
08-13-2006, 08:42 PM
Has Bailey shown any improvement at holding runners on? Has he quickened his move to the plate with a runner on first?

dougdirt
08-13-2006, 09:08 PM
TeamClark, I listened to the Lookouts game today, and it sounded like he had his curve working pretty good today. He had 3 strikeouts on it and several called looking strikes on it. It still doesnt sound like he is using his change up much, and I have also heard that he seems to slow down his arm speed when he throws it(the change). I was wondering if you had actually seen that, or heard about that or if I had heard bad information on that.

Newman4
08-13-2006, 09:44 PM
It seems as though Homer has kinda lost the "feel" for his change up. Probably due to not having to use it. Being a former pitcher, a change up is a pitch you have to have a feel for. Kinda like guys who have nice touch on their jumpshot in basketball, it's a finesse type thing that you have to work on. Wow, the way he dominated today, the FB/CB combo might just be enough to get him to above average starter status in MLB while working the change in periodically. Anyone go to the game?

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 10:56 PM
TeamClark, I listened to the Lookouts game today, and it sounded like he had his curve working pretty good today. He had 3 strikeouts on it and several called looking strikes on it. It still doesnt sound like he is using his change up much, and I have also heard that he seems to slow down his arm speed when he throws it(the change). I was wondering if you had actually seen that, or heard about that or if I had heard bad information on that.

Good to know his curve was working. He really needs that changeup to be good in the bigs but he could get by with 98 and a good curve.


I metnioned in one of my posts above that he is slowing his arm down to throw the change. It's a shame he isn't throwing it as much. You can't work on it if you don't throw it.

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 10:57 PM
Has Bailey shown any improvement at holding runners on? Has he quickened his move to the plate with a runner on first?


I don't have his times but the last two times I saw him he only had a couple of runners on. Hard to judge when you are throwing 1 hitters. :laugh:

MartyFan
08-13-2006, 11:17 PM
TC: In a previous post you said "
You are correct that the Reds do have a lot of "bottom of the barrell" coaches. Not all of them are bad, but most are. Most unqualified LOWEST bidder gets the job."

As a Reds fan I am pretty confident we will see this change with Mr. C and Special K at the healm.

Can you sight any specific coaches who are undervalued in their organization that could be a boost to the Reds?

Team Clark
08-13-2006, 11:46 PM
TC: In a previous post you said ""

As a Reds fan I am pretty confident we will see this change with Mr. C and Special K at the healm.

Can you sight any specific coaches who are undervalued in their organization that could be a boost to the Reds?


No, I would not care to do that. I hope you could understand why.

However, I would say that there are a lot of guys who are not in the game who would work out well. I would replace Rick Sweet immediately with Marc Hill, who is home in Missouri. I would then let Rick be a Roving Instructor. I would send Mark Berry back to AA to manage. Mark was previously a Manager of the Year (twice) in the Reds system. Jayhawk is a good manager but not a great TEAM guy. Jayhawk would be a great Catching Instructor. Mark is a good team guy. Sr. needs to be in a Roving Hitting situation. Running around and evaluating the Reds minor leagues is a waste of his knowledge. Those are a few of many changes I would make that I can give details about.

JTMONEY
08-14-2006, 12:09 AM
i would love to bring up bailey but if he does bad and we send him down it could mess up his confidence

RedsFanatic
08-14-2006, 12:21 AM
i would love to bring up bailey but if he does bad and we send him down it could mess up his confidence

Ahhh, the paranoia that Homer could turn into Brian Reith part deux. I think the argument that you will kill their confidence is extremely overrated, if they are going to "make it" they will have there share of bad starts. Liriano came up last September and had an ERA over 5. This year he is the best pitcher in baseball. All young pitchers take a beating occasionally, the ones that fight through it and learn from their mistakes are successful. The ones that become shellshocked and sulk (Brian Rieth) fade into oblivion.

Brutus
08-14-2006, 01:09 AM
Team Clark,

It's my observation that perhaps Homer is a victim of his own success. Think about it, why would a kid continue to work on a changeup when he's striking out guys at the Double-A level to the tune of over once per inning, and giving up just one earned run every nine innings?

It's a very short-sighted way of looking at things, but when you're a kid like Homer, you're probably too naive to understand that big league hitters will rip him apart if he doesn't develop that changeup.

One clarification - do you think it will take until next September until you feel he's ready or do you think the Reds will wait that long? I will defer to your insight as to whether he's ready next September, but I can't see the Reds waiting that long to get him up there - although I admit Wayne Krivsky does seem dedicated to not rushing the kid.

Another question - what do you think of Joey Votto and how far away is he? Obviously Scott Hatteberg has him blocked in the immediate future, but could he make the team next spring or is he another half-season or year away?

dougdirt
08-14-2006, 02:25 AM
Good to know his curve was working. He really needs that changeup to be good in the bigs but he could get by with 98 and a good curve.


I metnioned in one of my posts above that he is slowing his arm down to throw the change. It's a shame he isn't throwing it as much. You can't work on it if you don't throw it.

Thats what I get for skipping over a few posts...there were quite a few. Sorry for skipping over it and having you cover it again. Thanks for answering the question still though.

jredmo2
08-14-2006, 06:42 AM
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but here's a quick video of Homer in the bullpen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UPqCm3wh5I

His curve looks pretty nasty here. Not sure if that translates to anything, I'm no expert.

cumberlandreds
08-14-2006, 09:20 AM
In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.

I wondering that very thing while watching Mathieson saturday night if he was similar to Bailey. Grande or Welsh said he was just in A ball last season. Thanks for your insights.

princeton
08-14-2006, 10:21 AM
I would send Mark Berry back to AA to manage. Mark was previously a Manager of the Year (twice) in the Reds system.

and Mark Berry's going, what did I ever do to THAT guy?

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 12:12 PM
Team Clark,

It's my observation that perhaps Homer is a victim of his own success. Think about it, why would a kid continue to work on a changeup when he's striking out guys at the Double-A level to the tune of over once per inning, and giving up just one earned run every nine innings?

It's a very short-sighted way of looking at things, but when you're a kid like Homer, you're probably too naive to understand that big league hitters will rip him apart if he doesn't develop that changeup.

One clarification - do you think it will take until next September until you feel he's ready or do you think the Reds will wait that long? I will defer to your insight as to whether he's ready next September, but I can't see the Reds waiting that long to get him up there - although I admit Wayne Krivsky does seem dedicated to not rushing the kid.

Another question - what do you think of Joey Votto and how far away is he? Obviously Scott Hatteberg has him blocked in the immediate future, but could he make the team next spring or is he another half-season or year away?

That is an excellent theory on Homer's success. I'm not sure I have a good answer for that unless I were to speak with Homer. It's possible he's wondering "why am I fooling with this changeup".... Much like Nuke LaLoosh was wondering many things in his Minor League days. Homer needs a Crash Davis.

I think the Reds will wait until September 07. That being said, if he shows consistent improvement in developing his curve, change and maybe a slider he could be in the rotation by June. I would only need to see a young pitcher, of his caliber, throw Major League quality breaking balls and change ups for 60-75 innings at this stage. Possibly 100 innings if he had a few bumps along the way. From what I see and hear he is only showing those quality pitches in flashes. That will not cut it. To Homer's credit, he's only as far along as should be expected. He's certainly not behind in his development.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 12:13 PM
Thats what I get for skipping over a few posts...there were quite a few. Sorry for skipping over it and having you cover it again. Thanks for answering the question still though.

No problem. Happens to me all the time when I try to keep up with the Game Threads.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 12:15 PM
to be successful in the bullpen you only need two pitches, in addtion, there certainly have been a number of major league starters who had great success with only two pitches.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 12:15 PM
and Mark Berry's going, what did I ever do to THAT guy?

LOL! Yeah I bet. He's a tremendous administrator and organizer. He scripts Spring Training for the Big Leagues. That's one heck of a task believe me. He just needs to get back on the Managerial track IMO.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 12:18 PM
to be successful in the bullpen you only need two pitches, in addtion, there certainly have been a number of major league starters who had great success with only two pitches.


I just do not know what you accomplish by taking your #1 Starting Pitching prospect and quickly turn him into an inexperienced reliever. Homer really only has one pitch right now anyway. His curve is only good periodically.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 12:23 PM
I just do not know what you accomplish by taking your #1 Starting Pitching prospect and quickly turn him into an inexperienced reliever. Papelbon says hello

RedsManRick
08-14-2006, 12:24 PM
Given the hypothesis that Homer is becoming a victim of his own success, wouldn't it make sense then to move him up to AAA. I know that there's arguably more "talent" in AA, but let him face some guys who know how to deal with pitchers like him. Push him more and knock his ego down a peg if that's really the issue.

I just don't get why hitters aren't just sitting dead red on his fastball. There seems to be a similarity with Ryan Wagner in so far as once hitters figure out what not to mess with, they can sit on what they can handle and kill it. If he can simply live on his fastball in AA, perhaps he needs to be "forced" in to developing the rest of his repitoire.

Re: the Minor League SP -> Major League RP -> Major League SP route, it seems to be working in Minnesota. Not saying it's why they're successful, only that it doesn't seem to have been a hindrance.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 12:25 PM
Papelbon says hello

That is an excellent point. The Red Sox could afford to do that with Papelbon where I do not think the Reds can. Just My Opinion.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 12:27 PM
Given the hypothesis that Homer is becoming a victim of his own success, wouldn't it make sense then to move him up to AAA. I know that there's arguably more "talent" in AA, but let him face some guys who know how to deal with pitchers like him. Push him more and knock his ego down a peg if that's really the issue.

I just don't get why hitters aren't just sitting dead red on his fastball. There seems to be a similarity with Ryan Wagner in so far as once hitters figure out what not to mess with, they can sit on what they can handle and kill it. If he can simply live on his fastball in AA, perhaps he needs to be "forced" in to developing the rest of his repitoire.

Re: the Minor League SP -> Major League RP -> Major League SP route, it seems to be working in Minnesota. Not saying it's why they're successful, only that it doesn't seem to have been a hindrance.

It's a great idea. Problem is if they did that today he may only get two starts.

RedsManRick
08-14-2006, 12:30 PM
So TC, do you start him in AAA next year then? What about Arizona? If he has a great spring in '07, is he in "danger" of making the major league rotation?

flyer85
08-14-2006, 12:45 PM
That is an excellent point. The Red Sox could afford to do that with Papelbon where I do not think the Reds can. Just My Opinion.Supposedly it is only temporary, as it would be for the Reds. Without a doubt this team needs RH bullpen help.

I would sure to hate to think if this team misses the playoffs by a game and Bailey could have actually helped this team out of the bullpen.

jimbo
08-14-2006, 12:57 PM
Supposedly it is only temporary, as it would be for the Reds. Without a doubt this team needs RH bullpen help.

I would sure to hate to think if this team misses the playoffs by a game and Bailey could have actually helped this team out of the bullpen.

I'm sure that Bailey could come up here now and help the team in the bullpen. Why I'm against it though is that I'd like the Reds to show some long-term consistancy instead of making the playoffs one year and being a perennial loser the next 10. In order to accomplish that, they have to develop a strong minor league system and that starts with Bailey.

Like I said, he could probably help in the bullpen, but IMO it would hinder his development and future.

dougdirt
08-14-2006, 01:10 PM
Papelbon says hello
Papelbon is also 5 years older than Homer Bailey. Turning a 25 year old starter into a reliever may not do anything to his mind, doing it to a 20 year old on the other hand is a completely different story. As for the Papelbon thing being temporary, I will believe it when I see it. He has been so good as a closer, I am not sure they will pull that trigger until he struggles some.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 01:15 PM
I'm sure that Bailey could come up here now and help the team in the bullpen. Why I'm against it though is that I'd like the Reds to show some long-term consistancy instead of making the playoffs one year and being a perennial loser the next 10. will the career years the Reds are getting from a number of players going to be repeated next year?

Will the NL be as universally mediocre as it is this year?

The Reds may not get another chance for 10 years. This team as currently contructed is not built for lots of future successes.

tbball10
08-14-2006, 01:17 PM
ok, is TC a scout?

dougdirt
08-14-2006, 01:18 PM
Yes, he is.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 01:21 PM
So TC, do you start him in AAA next year then? What about Arizona? If he has a great spring in '07, is he in "danger" of making the major league rotation?

I think that I would start him in AAA. He would really need to show that he has bcome more consistent with his pitches. I think that he will. I would find it remarkable that he would make the big league club out of ST. I could not see his "stuff" becoming that good over the winter. Can't rule it out either. Not like it has never happened before. I would not let him participate in the Arizona fall league. No real need for it.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 01:23 PM
Supposedly it is only temporary, as it would be for the Reds. Without a doubt this team needs RH bullpen help.

I would sure to hate to think if this team misses the playoffs by a game and Bailey could have actually helped this team out of the bullpen.

I certainly see what you are saying. You have a valid point. You just have to trust the guys you have in the pen. They have to get the job done. Bailey in the pen would have to be a last resort. If it has come down to that then maybe the season is already lost.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 01:25 PM
ok, is TC a scout?

AND I work in Player Development. :laugh: I have not completely turned over to the Dark Side!! :laugh:

flyer85
08-14-2006, 01:28 PM
I certainly see what you are saying. You have a valid point. You just have to trust the guys you have in the pen. They have to get the job done. Bailey in the pen would have to be a last resort. If it has come down to that then maybe the season is already lost.currently the Reds have 3 RHP in the pen. They are going to be playing the heavily RH teams of the Cards and Pirates. They may be down to 2 RHP in the pen if Franklin goes to the rotation. I'm not sure pitching Michalak against the slap hitting Pirates makes a lot of sense.

jimbo
08-14-2006, 01:29 PM
The Reds may not get another chance for 10 years. This team as currently contructed is not built for lots of future successes.


Therein lies the problem. I agree, it's current contruction is not built for long-term success. The philosophies that this organization has taken on for the last 10 years or so has to change, or this acceptance of mediocrity will continue. The Reds will never be able to compete on the free agent market with the higher payroll teams, so in order to achieve any consistant success, it has to develop a strong minor league system. Boston can get away with bringing up their best starting prospect and putting them in the bullpen "temporarily," the Reds simply cannot take that risk.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 01:31 PM
Boston can get away with bringing up their best starting prospect and putting them in the bullpen "temporarily," the Reds simply cannot take that risk.I fail to see the risk. I suppose it depends on what they do the remainder of the season. Certainly pitching out of the pen is less stressful than being a starter and would limit his innings. His workload profile to this point of his career suggests he should not go beyond 150-160IP this season.

jimbo
08-14-2006, 01:37 PM
I fail to see the risk. I suppose it depends on what they do the remainder of the season. Certainly pitching out of the pen is less stressful than being a starter and would limit his innings. His workload profile to this point of his career suggests he should not go beyond 150-160IP this season.

I guess I see the possible risk being, since you've taken this young starter and conditioned his arm and mind to be a major league closer, will he be capable of being converted back into the starter you originally thought he could be. IMO, the value of a good starter far outweighs the value of a good closer.

And I'm not so sure there is less stress on a reliever than a starter. The stresses between the two are different, but just as equal in my mind.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 01:41 PM
I guess I see the possible risk being, since you've taken this young starter and conditioned his arm and mind to be a major league closer, will he be capable of being converted back into the starter you originally thought he could be. IMO, the value of a good starter far outweighs the value of a good closer.
the mindset is to get the current hitter out. As a reliever you have to do it 3-6 times in a night instead of 18-27.

The Reds are short of RHP relievers and the only real option is activating Belisle, what happens if it doesn't go well of his back acts up again?

The Reds are almost out of options at this point and if they really want to win this year ...

The point is the Bailey is probably the best option the Reds have at this point. Is it ideal? No but if you really want to win now then you had better pull out the stops and go for it.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 01:50 PM
If Standridge could grow some Marbles he would be outstanding in the pen.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 01:53 PM
If Standridge could grow some Marbles he would be outstanding in the pen.but he is on the DL with "back problems" as well. Back problems are always a huge warning flag and completely unpredictable.

jimbo
08-14-2006, 01:53 PM
the mindset is to get the current hitter out. As a reliever you have to do it 3-6 times in a night instead of 18-27.


Relievers and closers may at times have to get those 3-6 outs multiple times during a week, which also includes warming up without pitching occasionally. A reliever will also normally throw his absolute best stuff velocity wise because he knows he is only going an inning or so, whereas a starter will pace himself. The stresses are different, not necessarily unequal.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 02:10 PM
but he is on the DL with "back problems" as well. Back problems are always a huge warning flag and completely unpredictable.

Yes that is a fact. Just ask Belisle!

redsmetz
08-14-2006, 02:14 PM
will the career years the Reds are getting from a number of players going to be repeated next year?

Will the NL be as universally mediocre as it is this year?

The Reds may not get another chance for 10 years. This team as currently contructed is not built for lots of future successes.

What's to say next year's team is going tolook like this year's team? I would assume that there will be quite a number of moves over the offseason. Remember (I say this repeatedly), we're working to win now without sacrificing the future. Patience is the order of the day.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 02:32 PM
What's to say next year's team is going tolook like this year's team? I would assume that there will be quite a number of moves over the offseason. Remember (I say this repeatedly), we're working to win now without sacrificing the future. Patience is the order of the day.Reds are mostly bereft of trading chips at this point. I really have a hard time seeing that the 2007 Reds will look appreciably different than the 2006 version (other than Bailey showing up at some point in 2007).

princeton
08-14-2006, 02:33 PM
You just have to trust the guys you have in the pen. They have to get the job done. Bailey in the pen would have to be a last resort. If it has come down to that then maybe the season is already lost.

Just. But, we don't.

(actually, Coffey looked good yesterday. He had great action on the fastball to LHHers-- looked almost like a hard screwball)

but Bailey would give a very different look out of this bullpen. I highly doubt that it would work, and I wouldn't COUNT on it. But unless there's an option that I'm not seeing, it's worth looking at. I wouldn't let him get clobbered, and I wouldn't give him a key start. Just a bullpen appearance, then another if that goes OK, then another if that's OK too. See where he's at and if he responds to the higher level.

DoogMinAmo
08-14-2006, 02:38 PM
TC,

Have you seen any of the minor league bullpen options the Reds have, and would they fly in the majors? Their stats seem pretty good, but does their talent translate?

Shafer
Coutlangus
Calvin Medlock

Could Josh Hall, who had limited success as a starter in the majors have better success as a reliever? A lot of questions, but thanks in advance!

flyer85
08-14-2006, 02:40 PM
what the bullpen needs is a pitcher than can miss bats.

Team Clark
08-14-2006, 03:00 PM
TC,

Have you seen any of the minor league bullpen options the Reds have, and would they fly in the majors? Their stats seem pretty good, but does their talent translate?

Shafer
Coutlangus
Calvin Medlock

Could Josh Hall, who had limited success as a starter in the majors have better success as a reliever? A lot of questions, but thanks in advance!

I like Medlock and Coutlangus. I know that I have seen Shafer a time or two I just do not remember a lot about him.

Coutlangus at Chattanooga has some nice stuff. I have seen him plow right through guys in the 8th or 9th and then I have seen him have bouts of wildness. If memory serves he's about a strikeout per inning maybe a little more. He's going to need another year or two. Mechanics are a tad inconsistent.

Medlock has Billy Wagner's build. Another strong pitcher that has three quality pitches. He's a little guy at 5'9 or 5'10 but he's a battler. I think he is from Texas. Pitcher's from Texas kick butt. He could pitch in AAA right now. If the Reds were 10 games out I'd bring him up in Sept.

Josh Hall. I think Josh Hall could be every bit as successful as Harang. Harang is tougher mentaly than Hall which is all the difference in the world.

Someone asked about Votto earlier and I forgot to answer. Votto is the real deal as a hitter. He makes adjustments at every level. Pitching as you go higher gets better. More pitches are around the plate, hence, Quality Pitches. You see more strikes as you progress from Low A to AAA and the strikes are crisp, have more movement and simply have a higher degree of "filth". :laugh: Votto stays strong through the ball. I would really like to see him get 30-40 Major League AB's so that in AAA next year he will have some experience to use when adjusting his swing. This is of course perfect world thinking. 30-40 AB's are not readily available in a Pennant Race.

texasdave
08-14-2006, 03:06 PM
i have to agree with ricardo cabesa on this issue. if september 1st comes and there is no homer bailey in the reds bullpen (assuming the reds are still in serious playoff contention) then something is wrong. if homer is going to pitch any innings after september 1st they should be in the majors not AA.
i say this for the following reasons:

1) i think it would be a tremendous boon to turning around the fortunes and the mindset of this organization if the reds should make the playoffs. i dont think im misrepresenting the facts when i say that this franchise has been on the downswing for awhile now. making the playoffs could go a long way in reversing that trend. although there are no guarantees.

2) the reds bullpen needs help. as of right now i dont believe they have anyone in the pen that can come in and get a big strikeout when needed. homer very well may be that guy. he is probably as close to being that guy as there is in this organization. that could prove crucial down the stretch.

3) it is said quite often that homer only has one reliable pitch and thus will not be able to fool major league hitters and pitch successfully. however, 98 mph heat probably trumps that line of thinking. especially facing hitters for the first time and only pitching one inning at the most. when billy wagner pitched for the astros it was usually heat, heat and more heat. he often talked about mixing his slider in more but never really did. in the short haul i would think a 98 mph heater would work just fine.

4) i have read where sticking homer in the bullpen in september will somehow detour his progress as a starting pitcher. how so? pitching in a big league pennant race to me seems far more valuable experience than making a couple more starts down in chattanooga. as far as changing his mindset from starting pitcher to reliever - well that seems to be a reach to me. anyone who has been a starter all his life and then is put it the pen temporarily is not gonna forget what it is like to be a starting pitcher. how many times have you read about a pitcher who is in the pen saying he still thinks of himself or wants to be a starter. (see kyle lohse). you don't start for years and then up and forget how.

just sayin'

RedsFanatic
08-14-2006, 03:46 PM
This team isn't going to win the world series this year. Hopefully everyone has realized that. Why start Homer's arbitration clock now?? I would rather they shut his arm down at the beginning of September. Then he will be approaching 150 innings for the year. You must remember that Homer only turned 20 a few months ago. Be patient with him.

flyer85
08-14-2006, 03:49 PM
This team isn't going to win the world series this year. Hopefully everyone has realized that. Why start Homer's arbitration clock now?? as long as he is not going to be a super two(and he wouldn't), starting his arb clock means very little at this point unless the Reds expect him to pitch almost all of next season in the minors.

Ltlabner
08-14-2006, 03:55 PM
I fail to see the risk. I suppose it depends on what they do the remainder of the season. Certainly pitching out of the pen is less stressful than being a starter and would limit his innings. His workload profile to this point of his career suggests he should not go beyond 150-160IP this season.

See Ryan, Wagner.

Risk of him getting destroyed due to reliance on his fastball and underdeveloped other pitches. I don't see that is a good step in "player development".

Being in the pen means he'd likely be thrown into pressure situations that he's not ready to handle (See Rameriz, Elizardo) and fails miserably. Additionally, the natural tendency when young, wanting to please and being in a pressure MLB situation is to (1) tense up (2) throw just a little harder. Both are great ways to injure yourself physically.

The guy has shown limited success getting AA hiters out for a short period of time. Why would that translate right into MLB success?

Always Red
08-14-2006, 03:56 PM
This team isn't going to win the world series this year. Hopefully everyone has realized that. Why start Homer's arbitration clock now?? I would rather they shut his arm down at the beginning of September. Then he will be approaching 150 innings for the year. You must remember that Homer only turned 20 a few months ago. Be patient with him.
Never say never, my friend!

Anything can happen; using logic, the A's should have killed the Reds back in 1990.

Having found themselves in a pennant race, even if by default, I think the Reds owe it to themselves and their fans to go down, if they do, with all of their guns blazing.

Having said that, I do totally agree with you on Homer. Just not for your reason.:)

flyer85
08-14-2006, 03:59 PM
See Ryan, Wagner.
non sequitur

Ltlabner
08-14-2006, 04:04 PM
non sequitur

Nope...pitcher with great potential that was rushed through the system (at least that is the general concensus). That worked out pretty well for us didn't it?

flyer85
08-14-2006, 04:10 PM
Nope...pitcher with great potential that was rushed through the system actually he was simply a pitcher who has complex/violent mechanics which he got into a groove in 2003 and has never been able to recapture those mechanics(which is not highly unusual). He now has a slider that breaks almost completely in the horizontal plane and a fastball over which he has no command. An excellent corollary is the flameout in 2006 of Turnbow. Afterall, Cordero being rushed in 2003 sure hasn't hurt him. The difference? Cordero has very smooth and simple repeatable mechanics(like Bailey does).

Wagner was simply a player the Reds should not have drafted at 14. His problems have little to do with being rushed and much more to do with difficult to repeat mechanics to which he has refused to make adjustments.

RedEye
08-14-2006, 04:20 PM
I've said this before, but I'll say it again: I think Homer and Wagner are apples and oranges. If Homer is brought up this week, they will indeed have one thing in common: appearing in the majors much earlier than anyone expected. However, the comparisons can, and should, end there.

We need to remember that Wagner was a college reliever who moved through the minors much like many of his drafted peers did, albeit less successfully (Chad Cordero and Huston Street, to name a few). As far as most scouts could tell at the time of the draft, Wagner's out pitches were already ML ready. The Reds agreed, and needed BP help, so they brought him up early.

Homer, on the other hand, was drafted as a high school starter whose pitches were still raw. After two years of dominance in the minor leagues, there is still considerable doubt as to whether he yet has a consistent off-speed complement for his fastball--something a starter needs more than a reliever, who only comes in for an inning or two and faces batters once rather than thrice in a game. However, Homer may be ready to do the job out of the bullpen since his 97 MPH heater--paired with anything else slower--will still fool quite a few ML guys the first time around (see Bobby Jenks or K-Rod for two recent examples of this).

There is also an intangible element here. Wagner, by all accounts, had a serious attitude problem by the time he left Cincy. Not all of this was his fault, as the Reds tried to mold him unsuccessfully into a better pitcher and then dumped him back into the minors when he struggled. Homer, as far as I can tell from anecdotal evidence, is a level-headed kid who rises to competition levels (see his dominance at AA, which was supposed to be more difficult for him). This very well might happen again if he were promoted to the bigs. And, once again, a 97 MPH heater doesn't hurt.

Yes, the Reds screwed up Ryan Wagner. But Ryan Wagner also let himself get screwed up. A kid with a different make-up might have responded positively to criticisms and coaching rather than losing composure and confidence. Further, someone with a fragile psyche is probably primed for failure in the MLB... sometimes it's just a question of when rather than how (see Beane, Billy).

Homer, so far at least, does not seem to be quite so vulnerable. In any case, his case is far different than Ryan Wagner's. If we don't bring him up, let's not bring him up because we deem that's best for Homer Bailey--and not because we fear he might be the next Ryan Wagner. Because he just simply isn't.

TeamBoone
08-14-2006, 04:25 PM
I would sure to hate to think if this team misses the playoffs by a game and Bailey could have actually helped this team out of the bullpen.

If that happens, I doubt it's because Homer was brought up.

I'm more inclined to think that he'd get lit up by major league hitters and this point in his development possibly allowing two things to happen (neither of them good):

1 - his confidence is shot in the foot.

2 - he could potentially be the reason for the Reds to lose those two games rather than win (I'm sure he'd be neverous as you-know-what... that's not good either when you're in a playoff hunt; you want your pitchers experienced).

flyer85
08-14-2006, 04:44 PM
I'm more inclined to think that he'd get lit up by major league hitters and as a reliever and a pitcher who can command a 97 mph fastball I am inclined to think he won't get lit up. There have been a number of successful bullpen guys who were excellent with nothing more than command of an overpowering fastball. When you are throwing that hard the batters don't even swing at the curveball. They simply take it and hope. If a hitter is geared up for the overpowering fastball there is no way they can adjust to hit the curveball.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
08-14-2006, 05:20 PM
Nope...pitcher with great potential that was rushed through the system (at least that is the general concensus). That worked out pretty well for us didn't it?
Im not going to go through listing names, but pitchers with mid to high 90s fast balls are rushed into the bigs all the time and alot of times it works out fine. Ryan Wagner was a head case imo, lets not hold that against Homer and keep him from getting some playoff pitching experience.

dougdirt
08-14-2006, 05:22 PM
Im not going to go through listing names, but pitchers with mid to high 90s fast balls are rushed into the bigs all the time and alot of times it works out fine. Ryan Wagner was a head case imo, lets not hold that against Homer and keep him from getting some playoff pitching experience.
Oh he will get playoff experience. Chattanooga has already qualified for the AA playoffs.

terminator
08-14-2006, 05:42 PM
One thing to remember is that what Homer does when he first comes up -- whether sooner as a reliever or later as a starter -- will not immediately tell us how good he will be.

When you look at the current HOFer's pitching you have (with no real argument IMHO) Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Their stats:

Name, First Full Year ERA, Career ERA

Maddux, 5.61, 3.06
Clemens, 4.32, 3.11
Glavine, 5.54/4.56, 3.46
Johnson, 4.40, 3.19
Martinez, 3.42, 2.75

There are some good ones who start well, e.g. Mussina, Oswalt and Zito. Some pitch sparingly the first few years and then come on strong, e.g. Schilling.

That isn't to say that Bailey should come up or stay down, it just means we don't know how he will do when he comes up and regardless of what he does, it won't give us the answer to how good he will end up being.

STLRedsBacker
08-14-2006, 05:51 PM
I'd like to see Homer take the same path as Francisco Liriano. Slowly, then to the 'pen, then dominating as a starter (although I'd like to skip this latest part with the injury).

kaldaniels
08-16-2006, 01:14 AM
Team Clark...great responses so far. Here's another question if you don't mind. 2 words that pop up on these threads whenever Bailey is mentioned seem to be "arbitration clock". What significance does that actually hold when considering calling someone up to the bigs. You mention bringing Votto coming (ideally) for 30-40 at-bats and then starting out in AAA next year. Many on here would be up in arms for the team to actually plan Votto's MLB path in that way. Do GM's/Scouts not take into effect the players arbitration status as much as some on these boards do??? Just curious. Thanks!

Cedric
08-16-2006, 02:18 AM
If that happens, I doubt it's because Homer was brought up.

I'm more inclined to think that he'd get lit up by major league hitters and this point in his development possibly allowing two things to happen (neither of them good):

1 - his confidence is shot in the foot.

2 - he could potentially be the reason for the Reds to lose those two games rather than win (I'm sure he'd be neverous as you-know-what... that's not good either when you're in a playoff hunt; you want your pitchers experienced).

K-Rod wasn't nervous as you-know-what. The great one's are able to handle the pressure and get people out.

Homer Bailey isn't a tenth round pick with low expecations, he's dealt with pressure from the minute his name was called in the draft.

He's ready.

dougdirt
08-16-2006, 02:55 AM
Krod also made 50 appearances that year as a reliever in the minors before coming to the majors as a relief guy.

Oh, and Homer isnt ready. He needs more consistancy with his curve ball, and needs to figure out how to throw a change up without slowing down his arm speed.

Cedric
08-16-2006, 03:00 AM
Krod also made 50 appearances that year as a reliever in the minors before coming to the majors as a relief guy.

Oh, and Homer isnt ready. He needs more consistancy with his curve ball, and needs to figure out how to throw a change up without slowing down his arm speed.

I wasn't trying to compare Homer to K-rod in terms of their role on team, just showing that the great one's aren't nervous in the hunt.

Homer has a good enough fastball and secondary pitches to compete and get hitters out at this level, I believe that.

His workload is getting up there though, that's the only reason we might not see him this September.

Aronchis
08-16-2006, 07:04 AM
Good thread on Homer. As I have been trying to tell people, Homer doesn't have the great "pure/explosive" fastball like Burnett or Verlander(who has very middling secondary stuff, but people can't handle his fastball at all). He is more like Beckett, who likewise, has a similiar fastball and has gotten rocked alot this season because those AL teams are smashing the straight heat.

I wouldn't worry about the offspeed so much at this stage, it may be years if he lasts that long before it can become more reliable. Nor does he need a slider, his breaking pitch, which is due consistancy next year, shall be enough.

What Homer needs to finish off his arsenal is a 2 seamer. I think that could be the kicker with him. Give him a 4th pitch and possible a more trusted 3rd pitch at this stage of his career.

StillFunkyB
08-16-2006, 09:12 AM
Homer Bailey essentially only has two pitches.

Slowing down while throwing you changeup pretty much eliminates that from being used at the major league level.

So, that leaves the curve, which has already been stated that he has trouble throwing for strikes on a consistent basis.

If he was to be called up, he might get a couple of good starts until the word gets out and hitters are sitting on the fastball.

Major League hitters will sit on his fastball, and take him to the cleaners.

He needs to either harness that curve, or learn how to throw the change so hitters don't know it's coming.

I don't think you can use previous success, or failure by other players to really determine if someone is ready or not. You have to go by what HB can do himself, and right now his secondary pitches are not good enough to fool big league hitters.

HB is not ready, yet. It's very easy to see that.

Jpup
08-16-2006, 09:25 AM
Hey TC, how about Tom House? Any chance the Reds could bring him into the fold? Everything I have read says that House is the premiere guy as far as mechanics. Why isn't he working for a big league club?

dabvu2498
08-16-2006, 09:31 AM
Hey TC, how about Tom House? Any chance the Reds could bring him into the fold? Everything I have read says that House is the premiere guy as far as mechanics. Why isn't he working for a big league club?
He's making a pant-load of money selling videos, books, doing clinics, etc. https://www.npadirect.com/vcc/designerlean/artandscienceofpitching/135138/

johngalt
08-16-2006, 10:33 AM
Team Clark...great responses so far. Here's another question if you don't mind. 2 words that pop up on these threads whenever Bailey is mentioned seem to be "arbitration clock". What significance does that actually hold when considering calling someone up to the bigs. You mention bringing Votto coming (ideally) for 30-40 at-bats and then starting out in AAA next year. Many on here would be up in arms for the team to actually plan Votto's MLB path in that way. Do GM's/Scouts not take into effect the players arbitration status as much as some on these boards do??? Just curious. Thanks!

I doubt you'd see many people "up in arms" if that scenario played out with Votto since 1) he's already on the 40 man and using an option year and 2) his time in the bigs to get 30-40 at-bats wouldn't really affect his arbitration time much. He'd still be able to get three full seasons in before being eligible. His situation is a bit different than Homer's.

Cedric
08-16-2006, 01:20 PM
Homer Bailey essentially only has two pitches.

Slowing down while throwing you changeup pretty much eliminates that from being used at the major league level.

So, that leaves the curve, which has already been stated that he has trouble throwing for strikes on a consistent basis.

If he was to be called up, he might get a couple of good starts until the word gets out and hitters are sitting on the fastball.

Major League hitters will sit on his fastball, and take him to the cleaners.

He needs to either harness that curve, or learn how to throw the change so hitters don't know it's coming.

I don't think you can use previous success, or failure by other players to really determine if someone is ready or not. You have to go by what HB can do himself, and right now his secondary pitches are not good enough to fool big league hitters.

HB is not ready, yet. It's very easy to see that.

When did you watch him pitch? I'm not being a smartass, just wondering.

TeamBoone
08-16-2006, 01:38 PM
Wednesday, August 16, 2006


HOMER UPDATE: As well as Homer Bailey has pitched, there's a possibility his season will be coming to an end shortly.

He has thrown 123 innings this year. That's near the limit the Reds want for a 20-year-old.

"We're cognizant of it," general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "You've got to be careful about it. What you always want is 30 innings more than the year before."

Bailey threw 1032/3 innings at Single-A Dayton last year.

SEPTEMBER CALL-UPS: Krivsky hasn't decided how many players will be called up when rosters expand Sept. 1.

"When you're in the race, you bring up more," he said. "You never know when a pinch runner could help you win a game. I can tell you cost won't be a factor."

The Reds will get an influx of arms around Sept. 1 as players come off the disabled list. Right-handers Gary Majewski, Jason Standridge and Matt Belisle all should be ready by then.

Outfielder Chris Denorfia is pretty much assured of a call-up.

Other players on the 40-man roster who would be candidates: infielders Ray Olmedo and Joey Votto, outfielder Brandon Watson, left-handers Michael Gosling and Phil Dumatrait and right-handers Ramirez and Mike Burns.
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060816/SPT04/608160362/1071

Team Clark
08-16-2006, 01:42 PM
Team Clark...great responses so far. Here's another question if you don't mind. 2 words that pop up on these threads whenever Bailey is mentioned seem to be "arbitration clock". What significance does that actually hold when considering calling someone up to the bigs. You mention bringing Votto coming (ideally) for 30-40 at-bats and then starting out in AAA next year. Many on here would be up in arms for the team to actually plan Votto's MLB path in that way. Do GM's/Scouts not take into effect the players arbitration status as much as some on these boards do??? Just curious. Thanks!


I would say it comes into account "very little". You need the best 25 guys on your roster if at all possible. I'm sure it has happened at some point but I would have to say it happens very little.

Team Clark
08-16-2006, 01:45 PM
Hey TC, how about Tom House? Any chance the Reds could bring him into the fold? Everything I have read says that House is the premiere guy as far as mechanics. Why isn't he working for a big league club?

Tom is very successful with his own business. Not sure if he would do it. Tom is a great mechanics guy. He'd be great in High A. Not that he couldn't be a ML PC again.

Team Clark
08-16-2006, 01:48 PM
I doubt you'd see many people "up in arms" if that scenario played out with Votto since 1) he's already on the 40 man and using an option year and 2) his time in the bigs to get 30-40 at-bats wouldn't really affect his arbitration time much. He'd still be able to get three full seasons in before being eligible. His situation is a bit different than Homer's.

Totally agree. I'd love to see him get those AB's but that is highly unlikely at this point.

Dan
08-16-2006, 01:51 PM
I'd like to see Homer take the same path as Francisco Liriano. Slowly, then to the 'pen, then dominating as a starter (although I'd like to skip this latest part with the injury).

Isn't this the way it used to be, especially with phenomns? IIRC the Orioles did this with many of their starters through the years. Didn't Bonus Baby Koufax spend his first 4 or 5 years pitching mostly out of the 'pen? I think the Reds did this with Rijo the first year they had him.

Seems to me lately, though, that pitchers get deemed "starter" or "reliever" before they ever get to the bigs. Then when a starter gets the call up he's thrust into that role as soon as possible, sometimes making his debut, without an amount of time in the 'pen to get used to the rigors of pitching against ML hitters. (Tomko and Josh Hall are 2 recent examples for the Reds.)

SeeinRed
08-16-2006, 04:12 PM
From the looks of it, I might be in the minority. I don't see the urgency to bring up Homer, even if it is in a relief roll. If the Reds are contending, and you are looking for a 20 year old AA player to put this team into the playoffs, there is something wrong. For one, he may have a fastball that could blow away a major league batter.... once.... if it is in the right spot. Major league batters can hit a 98 mph fastball. Especially when they see it a few times, and it doesn't move much. The only thing a 98 mph fastball would do at that point is fly farther when hit.

Besides, a lot of what most people know about Homer is what they hear about him dominating the level that he is pitching at. Not to say there aren't good players in AA, but there is another level above that before you even get to the Majors. The biggest difference between the levels is the adjustments that the hitters make. If you only have to adjust to one pitch, it makes the hitters job a whole lot easier. Let him develope his pitches. You learn so you can play in the majors, you don't play in the majors to learn (the basics that is). If you are still trying to learn about your own game and trying to get big leaguers out, you are going to get into some tough situations. There is a reason that there is a player developement side to baseball. Kids don't just come in ready to play on the big stage. The goal is not to get him good enough to help out, the goal is to get him to be as good as he can be. You don't accomplish that by telling him he is already good enough to play on the big league team. You do that by letting him play his way through the system.

I guess the best example in professional sports is Freddy Adu. This kid was suppose to be able to go into the MLS at 16 and absolutely dominate. He was supposed to change the face of soccer. He clearly wasn't ready to play in the MLS. He has struggled to become average. The reason he was supposed to be so good was because he could dominate at every level he had played at, but he hadn't played on a comparable stage to the MLS. He had failed to refine his game and adjust to professional soccer. Now, I know that it is kinda comparing apples and oranges here, but just because a kid succeeds at lower levels, it doesn't guaruntee anything. Yeah, Bailey could come up and dominate out of the bullpen throwing just fastballs. But there is just as good of a chance, if not better, that he gets rocked. Remember, he throws hard, but with not a lot of movement right now, and really no secondary pitches to speak of. Nothing to make a major leaguer do anything but sit on a fastball anyway. That will all come down the road. But right now, if hitters can sit on one pitch, their jobs just got a whole lot easier.