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View Full Version : How Many Wins Would You Sign Up For?



MaineRed
08-13-2006, 10:59 PM
A post by Mario-Rijo got me to thinking what the minimun number of wins it will take to win the wild card? To be more precise, whats it going to take to win the Wild Card by one game?

I think I would say 86. The Reds are currently on pace for 84. Seems to me that if they play just a little better than their current pace, they'd have a good chance to make it. Someone would have to play really good baseball to pass them. Houston for instance would have to go 29-18 the rest of the way to get to 86.

Curious to see what others think the number is.

Also wanted to mention that the Reds have gained ground on everyone in the current WC race over the last 10 games, except the Astros who went 6-4, like the Reds. That fact seems to have been lost with the Dodgers coming up and blowing by everyone. But they now lead the West. The Reds continue to benefit from having most of their competition coming from the West. Arizona was in first for awhile and then fell out. Then the Giants crept up but now they are all but out of it. The next thing you know the Dodgers blow by, but they vault into first and out of the wild card race. We still have the Pads, Rockies and D-Backs to worry about but with the Dodgers it is going to be hard for more than one of them to get hot. And whoever does will probably win the divison.

I like what Aurillia said on Baseball Tonight. The Reds just want to win series. 2-0-1 in their last 3.

KronoRed
08-14-2006, 12:20 AM
The mid 80 range sounds about right to me, I'd guess 85.

mbgrayson
08-14-2006, 01:11 AM
I think it will take 89-90. SOMEONE will get hot, like the Dodgers are now, and run off a bunch of wins.

Hopefully it will be the Reds....

Mario-Rijo
08-14-2006, 07:22 PM
Thanks for the props MaineRed.

Now the answer, hmmmmm. I know how about some research.

Winners of the W/C past 5 years:
2005 Houston 89-73
2004 Houston 92-70
2003 Florida 91-71
2002 San Francisco 95-66
2001 St. Louis & Houston tie for Division @ 93-69 (Loser of division which was St. Louis I believe gets the W/C)

I think I am going to go with 87 or 88 wins. The league is poorer than last year but due to the parity I see everyone scrapping down to the end. Let's just say 88 wins get's it.

That means we need to go 27-17 (44 games left) the rest of the way. And Houston would have to go 31-14 (45 games left), San Diego (Because LA wins that Division) would have to go 28-17 (45 games left), St. Louis would have to go 26-19 (45 games left). Frankly I believe we can win the Central but we need to get REDHOT and I mean right now. But if not I think St. Louis even with all their struggles can go 26-19 or better. But S.D. isn't going to go 28-17 with the schedule they have left (it's brutal). So that really leaves it up to us and the 'Stros. Can the 'Stros go 31-14? I seriously doubt it, So if we just go that 27-17 we wrap it up.

If we can't go 27-17 against the worst possible schedule left in the NL we simply didn't deserve it in the 1st place.

Oh BTW if we win every series that would net us 30 wins (as we have 2 4 game series), so I guess we could split the two 4 game series win all the rest and come out with 89 wins. Wow good 'ole JN has his thinking cap on doesn't he.

deltachi8
08-14-2006, 07:31 PM
86