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jamess697
08-14-2006, 09:57 PM
Is Bill Bray not exciting, we have a 23 year lefty (who will only get better), poised to be our closer for years to come. I think it is great to have a leader and mentor like Guardado for Bray to learn from. Bray has improving stuff and with experience, and confidence he will be outstanding!

flyer85
08-14-2006, 10:01 PM
14IP 24H 5BB 11K
4.40 ERA 1.8 WHIP

I must be missing something.

redram
08-14-2006, 10:23 PM
14IP 24H 5BB 11K
4.40 ERA 1.8 WHIP

I must be missing something.

I Think you are missing quite a bit if you cannot see this kid will be a force in the future. He already shows flashes of being a great pitcher and he is very young. I am looking forward to watching him for years to come. Even at his age his is so much better than most we had by far. I would rather have a 24 year old with his potential, than some of these fossils we had before him any day.

HumnHilghtFreel
08-14-2006, 11:11 PM
14IP 24H 5BB 11K
4.40 ERA 1.8 WHIP

I must be missing something.


Look at stats all you want, but he's a young kid with some pretty good looking stuff.

Ravenlord
08-14-2006, 11:17 PM
Look at stats all you want, but he's a young kid with some pretty good looking stuff.
who looks like, and has numbers like Gabe White.

Superdude
08-14-2006, 11:33 PM
Has anyone seen him throw a changeup yet? I kept hearing about his changeup and the possibility of converting to starting, but I haven't seen him throw it yet.

Reds1
08-14-2006, 11:53 PM
He has some sweet pitches. As all young players he's searching for consistancy. He actually seems to be tougher on rightys, but it's early. The potential is there, but the stats are misleading. I would think anyone who has watched him would see some pretty darn good potential. I guess the mgr does too as he has a few saves and has pitched in the close games. Right now we don't have anyone lights out in the pen so he's as good as any.

redssouth
08-15-2006, 01:16 AM
Gabe White was in the minors with the Yankees at age 24. He didnt have his breakout year until he was 26 with the Reds. And then followed that up with a dud the next year. I think Bray has twice the potential of Gabe White. Bray is a guy who in two minor league seasons averaged 10.53K/9. And he is 23 i believe. He gives up a good amount of hits, but he has the ability to miss some bats. He could develop into a really good reliever.

guttle11
08-15-2006, 01:41 AM
Look at stats all you want, but he's a young kid with some pretty good looking stuff.

The guy certainly has electric stuff that stats can't see, but the stats don't lie, and "stuff" doesn't win ball games.

As of now, he's nothing more than decent.

Shaggy Sanchez
08-15-2006, 01:44 AM
Ryan Wagner had pretty good looking stuff at one point as well and he even pitched pretty well for a short time. A lot of things can happen to pitchers, I hope Bray becomes a dominant closer for many years but so far I haven't seen it.

HumnHilghtFreel
08-15-2006, 02:02 AM
The guy certainly has electric stuff that stats can't see, but the stats don't lie, and "stuff" doesn't win ball games.

As of now, he's nothing more than decent.

Indeed, but the original post was talking about how exciting the possibilities for his future are.

puca
08-15-2006, 07:19 AM
Gabe White was in the minors with the Yankees at age 24. He didnt have his breakout year until he was 26 with the Reds. And then followed that up with a dud the next year. I think Bray has twice the potential of Gabe White. Bray is a guy who in two minor league seasons averaged 10.53K/9. And he is 23 i believe. He gives up a good amount of hits, but he has the ability to miss some bats. He could develop into a really good reliever.

Actually Gabe White was pitching for the Expos at age 23. His next stop...the Reds.

puca
08-15-2006, 07:25 AM
I can't get excited about middle reliever prospects unless they throw upper 90's. Sure, it is possible he becomes a closer some day, but it is more likely he toils as a decent middle reliever for 5-10 years, mixing in some good years along with some very average years with some downright bad years. Because that is what middle relievers do.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 08:59 AM
Look at stats all you want, but he's a young kid with some pretty good looking stuff.but you just don't know how it is going to turn out. He may be good or end up moediocre like he is now.

redssouth
08-15-2006, 09:03 AM
Actually Gabe White was pitching for the Expos at age 23. His next stop...the Reds.

Upon further review... your right... read the transaction log wrong, i think it was all the trades back to the same team that traded you in the first place.

44Magnum
08-15-2006, 09:26 AM
I think the kid will be a very good pitcher for years to come.

registerthis
08-15-2006, 09:31 AM
Indeed, but the original post was talking about how exciting the possibilities for his future are.

There have been plenty of pitchers with good "stuff" who have flamed out in the Majors. I'll save my excitement for someone like Bailey, or for someone who is actually demonstrating success at the major league level.

Always Red
08-15-2006, 09:34 AM
You just never know with pitchers.

Between arm injuries, flash-in-the pan types, control issues, and head cases, it's just too hard to look into the crystal ball. For example, Standridge would be exceptional, if he could throw strikes. But he can't, so he can't be counted on, yet.

That's why you can't stockpile too many good ones.

If I were the GM, the first 6-7 players I'd draft every single year would be pitchers. And that way, if they pan out well, and you don't need that many pitchers, well, you can always trade middle relievers for everyday players!

OK, sorry that was kind of a shot, and do still like "The Trade." I like Bray, and think he's a keeper.:D

Chainer
08-15-2006, 11:08 AM
There have been plenty of pitchers with good "stuff" who have flamed out in the Majors. I'll save my excitement for someone like Bailey, or for someone who is actually demonstrating success at the major league level.

Since we're on the level of speculation....and posing the 'what if' questions....


'What if' Bailey doesn't turn out like he's supposed to? And what makes him any different than speculating on Bray, who's already at the Major League level?

BoydsOfSummer
08-15-2006, 12:37 PM
It's his rookie campaign,he still has a month and a half to show his stuff. We should have a fairly good idea by then. He should be showing steady improvement by then instead of getting knocked around.

registerthis
08-15-2006, 12:46 PM
'What if' Bailey doesn't turn out like he's supposed to? And what makes him any different than speculating on Bray, who's already at the Major League level?

Could Bailey flame out? Of course, for every Johan Santana there are a hundred Ty Howingtons.

But I put more stock in Bailey because the professional scouts--whose business it is to recognize baseball talent--have projected him to have a higher ceiling than Bray. The difference, as per your question, is that not all prospects are made equal. Bray has the potential to be very good, Bailey has the potential to be outstanding.

Chainer
08-15-2006, 12:50 PM
Could Bailey flame out? Of course, for every Johan Santana there are a hundred Ty Howingtons.

But I put more stock in Bailey because the professional scouts--whose business it is to recognize baseball talent--have projected him to have a higher ceiling than Bray. The difference, as per your question, is that not all prospects are made equal. Bray has the potential to be very good, Bailey has the potential to be outstanding.

Brandon Larson had the 'potential' to be outstanding, and look what happened with him!

RedsFanatic
08-15-2006, 12:57 PM
Larson could never hit offspeed pitches.

puca
08-15-2006, 12:57 PM
But Bray doesn't even have a good minor campaign to hang a hat on. I haven't seen him pitch, so maybe his stuff is just that electric, but just can't see a reason to be blindly optimistic about his future success.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 01:01 PM
I haven't seen him pitch, so maybe his stuff is just that electric, Overall it isn't. Still needs better command of his fastball and about one of every three sliders(when he stays on top) is pretty much unhittable because it drops off the table. However, right now the majority of his sliders break more in the horizontal plane. If he ever is able to get 80-90% of those sliders dropping off the table he will have something special.

RANDY IN INDY
08-15-2006, 01:18 PM
I like Bray. Wish his fastball had a little more late movement, and with the right coaching, that may happen. The slider is pretty nasty, and as Ricardo pointed out, staying on top of that pitch is a key for him. Just the slightest turn of the wrist and fingers to the left really makes that pitch go flat.

RANDY IN INDY
08-15-2006, 01:59 PM
The good thing about Bray is that he hasn't logged many innings in the minor leagues, and as a closer at William and Mary, I doubt that he logged that many innings in his college career. The Reds should really try to put him on an off season arm strengthening program and consider him at some point as a starter.

registerthis
08-15-2006, 02:01 PM
Brandon Larson had the 'potential' to be outstanding, and look what happened with him!

Sure, you could find thousands like him in the annals of baseball history.

You asked what the difference was between Bray and Bailey, and I answered you: ceiling.

oregonred
08-16-2006, 02:56 AM
14IP 24H 5BB 11K
4.40 ERA 1.8 WHIP

I must be missing something.

Yes, Bill Bray was the best young MLB arm moved during July. He quickly moved into being maybe the most trusted setup man and his presence alone has helped move others in the pen into better and more appropriate roles.

That being said, I looked at Bray as the best part of "the trade" going forward as being under Reds control until 2012 and just turning 23 a couple months back. His dividends were to be received somewhat in 2006 but mostly over the next 6 seasons as a key lefty setup man or potential closer on an organization desperately needing a young infusion of pitching talent. (on the cheap too). Obviously the Maj injury situation and ineffectiveness jumbled things on a number of fronts the last few weeks. Bray's minor league K numbers were pretty sick -- I believe he was in the 11-12 K/9 IP range in ~30IP of AAA ball this season.

He has been OVERUSED in the last 2-3 weeks and it better stop soon or else he may get hurt and this trade is going to look really bad. His arm is young and he hasn't logged many IP in pro balls. He needs to grow in high leverage situations, but not 4-5 times a week. I'd rather see him pitch a couple of key innings twice a week rather than 4-5 appearances with an inning here and there.

I'd take him over Kearns in a heartbeat. I'm thrilled to have someone like Bray on the Reds staff for the next several years.

redsmetz
08-16-2006, 05:50 AM
He has been OVERUSED in the last 2-3 weeks and it better stop soon or else he may get hurt and this trade is going to look really bad. His arm is young and he hasn't logged many IP in pro balls. He needs to grow in high leverage situations, but not 4-5 times a week. I'd rather see him pitch a couple of key innings twice a week rather than 4-5 appearances with an inning here and there.

I think this is going to be the trick for the remainder of the season; how to use the bullpen effectively without burning everyone out. I think we're running many of our pitchers at the maximum and we have to be careful not to burn folks out (physically or mentally).

oregonred
08-16-2006, 02:09 PM
I think this is going to be the trick for the remainder of the season; how to use the bullpen effectively without burning everyone out. I think we're running many of our pitchers at the maximum and we have to be careful not to burn folks out (physically or mentally).

Some folks I don't care about overuse other than the negative impact to team over the next few weeks. Weathers/Guardado/Franklin/WK's pickup of the day. Get every ounce of what you can for them 2006 and then you move on with their replacements next spring.

Bray/Maj/Coffey are going to be pen centerpiece mainstays for possibly the next 4-5 seasons and need to be used appropriately to keep them healthy over the next several seasons. In particular, Bray needs to be coddled a bit and used appropriately (not 4-5 times a week) more than anyone in the pen right now.

Red in Atl
08-16-2006, 03:33 PM
I'll give you the best comparison, BJ Ryan. We traded him young in '99. It took him 4-5 years to be a closer but look at him now. It would be real nice to be the receiver in such a trade instead of the giver.

Billy Bray, closer 2008

boognish
08-16-2006, 06:35 PM
Well, at least the rest of the way, inappropriate guys won't have to be used in blowouts. Franklin pitched 212, 200.1, and 190.2 innings as a starter the last 3 seasons. He is extremely flyball happy and thus homer happy, but that was the good thing about acquiring him...Bray, Coffey, and Weathers won't get burned up pitching as often in games already decided.

Schoenweis...do they see him as a starter in our heavily RH-hitting division? He started 2 years ago for the White Sox, but wasn't very effective...

Patrick Bateman
08-16-2006, 07:08 PM
I must be missing something.

You got that right.

His ERA/WHIP is easily skewed by the fact that he's only pitched 14 innings for the Reds. His BAPIP is .331 this season. That wont continue.

With the Reds he has the following numbers:
6.3 K/9
2.9 BB/9
0.57 Hr/9

That makes a pretty good DIPS ERA of 3.30.

For the season total he's a little worse than that (3.78 DIPS), but that's still pretty solid for a 23 year old that will likely improve. Basing a pitcher's talent on 14 innings with ERA and WHIP as your primary stats is a poor way in doing so.