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reds44
08-15-2006, 01:00 AM
Back in April there were some rumors about a EE-Willis trade. Many of us said that we would do the trade in a heartbeat. Some said Willis is a young, legit ace and we could trade Edwin because we had a plethora of hitting. Well today I pose the same question. If you could deal Edwin for Willis would you do it?


Tale of the Tape:


Edwin Encarnacion
Age- 23
At-bats- 225
hits- 77
runs- 40
doubles- 24
homers- 11
rbis- 55
batting average- .302
on base- .391
slugging- .533
ops- .924

Dontrelle Willis (only the W-L, ERA, GS, CG, and HRs includes tonight's start)
Age- 24
wins- 7
losses- 10
era- 4.14
innings pitched- 159
strike outs- 105
walks- 58
hits- 178
hrs- 15
gs- 26
cg- 3
whip- 1.49

career whip- 1.30
career era- 3.44


Simple question, would you trade Edwin for Willis?

I vote no.

REDREAD
08-15-2006, 01:09 AM
Yes, I would still do it in a heartbeat. EdE is one of my favorites, but it's easier to find a 3b than it is a #1 pitcher.

TOBTTReds
08-15-2006, 01:20 AM
Yes, I would still do it in a heartbeat. EdE is one of my favorites, but it's easier to find a 3b than it is a #1 pitcher.

Willis's numbers aren't very good. He is a #3 for us it seems. Unless Arroyo never finds it again, then he is a 2.

Ron Madden
08-15-2006, 03:08 AM
I know Pitching is the name of the game and all but..

As most of you know, I've been on Edwins bandwagon for two years now.
I like this kid and really believe we have something special here.

It's been almost as hard for the Reds to bring up good 3rd basemen as it has been to bring up good pitchers.

Let's hope WK can bring in some pitching while holding on to Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion.

dougdirt
08-15-2006, 03:23 AM
Not a chance if it were up to me.

reds44
08-15-2006, 03:25 AM
I know Pitching is the name of the game and all but..

As most of you know, I've been on Edwins bandwagon for two years now.
I like this kid and really believe we have something special here.

It's been almost as hard for the Reds to bring up good 3rd basemen as it has been to bring up good pitchers.

Let's hope WK can bring in some pitching while holding on to Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion.
That would be my plan. Build the entire team around EE and Dunner.

Topcat
08-15-2006, 04:20 AM
Voted yes but with a more detailed reason. I honestly feel that as a trading chip Dontrelle may be the kind of guy that could truly help restock a teams over all depth and fast track a team back into contention alot quicker.

To clarify yes to the trade. Then flip Dtrain for a huge over prospect haul.

buckeyenut
08-15-2006, 06:45 AM
Personally, I never would have dealt EE for Willis. I would have however dealt EE in a deal that included Willis AND Cabrera. That discussion I would still have.

Jpup
08-15-2006, 07:01 AM
in a second.

puca
08-15-2006, 07:10 AM
Not unless the Reds are going to suddenly bump their payroll to the 80-90 million range. And even then I would have to think long and hard about it.

RedLegSuperStar
08-15-2006, 07:34 AM
Is Jerry Narron allowed to vote and how many times?

Seriously.. I would do the deal straight up Encarnacion for Willis but only on two conditions. Only if the deal is done in the Offseason, or if we are out of the race come July 31st and we can plug a Ryan Freel/Rich Aurilia/..dang..Juan Castro in. If it were to happen during the offseason like right at the Winter Meetings and that gave us all offseason to scout out a above average 3rd baseman. Edwin is as close to untouchable but if it were for D-Train I think you have to pull that trigger.

BrooklynRedz
08-15-2006, 09:27 AM
I think it's really foolish for any club to identify (either internally or publicly) any player as untouchable. Doing so limits the options available to improve the roster and puts you at a distinct disadvantage.

edE for Willis? Great question. I'm interested to hear the disccussion re: the most accurate metric that compares hitters and pitchers.

TRF
08-15-2006, 09:31 AM
nope. He's starting to show the wear of all those innings on that still young arm. I think last year was an incredible hiccup in what has been a trend of declining effectiveness.

Just a hunch, but I'd say he headed for a bigger drop next year too.

Reds1
08-15-2006, 10:17 AM
I said no before and said no again. I worry that he's slowing down and see him being very ave. talking about D!

RedsManRick
08-15-2006, 10:27 AM
Willis' mechanics and that he's played in a very friendly pitcher's park tells me no. There are a number of young starters I'd be happy to trade him for, even excluding Liriano and Hernandez, Willis just isn't among them.

Johnny Footstool
08-15-2006, 11:10 AM
What is the fascination with Willis? Is it the high leg kick? Is it the hat worn slightly askew? Could it be the media hype? Because his numbers really aren't that good.

RedsMan3203
08-15-2006, 12:06 PM
I vote no.... I still think something is wrong with Willis.

But there could be a chance if there is a sign and trade for Willis.

Get him locked for 7+ years.. then maybe... if he doesn't sign... no.

The_jbh
08-15-2006, 01:15 PM
I wouldn't do this now... we don't have the offense anymore to make the playoff run and deal EE...

This offseason would be a different story. An ace is an ace... you gotta do it aslong as u can get an extension on him

and I am a HUGE EE fan but I dont think u can pass on a lefty ace thats young and has good character

edabbs44
08-15-2006, 01:57 PM
agree EdE is a great young ballplayer, but there have been plenty of EdEs. Would you have dealt Kevin Maas for Willis? How about Kearns, pre Ray King avalanche? Ben Grieve? Jerome Walton? Bob Hamelin?

Listen, I love EdE and I hope he'll be here for a long time. But one thing this team has been missing is a front of the rotation starter. And Willis is that. Check out his numbers last year. Do you think maybe he's being affected by the fire sale from last year? I have no idea. But last week at this time I think this board would have been all over this deal. If WK asked me about this deal and he said he could lock up Willis for 5+ years, I would say YES.

puca
08-15-2006, 02:45 PM
There have also been plenty of great young pitchers that became less-than-great older pitchers.

Would you have traded for Javier Vazquez? How about Ismael Valdez? Mike Hampton? Billy Swift? Atlee Hammaker? Mike Hampton? Ramon Martinez? Plenty of good young pitchers flame out as well.

In fact mostly due to injury, I would guess the attrition rate is much higher for young pitchers.

Kc61
08-15-2006, 03:12 PM
No, no, and no.

EE has convinced me that he is going to be a star player whose best years are ahead. Unclear if Willis' best years are ahead or are past.

Mario-Rijo
08-15-2006, 05:40 PM
I absolutely would. I like everyone else like EE, but D-Train would be a seriously major upgrade. Not just to the rotation (automatic #1 starter), but think of the merchandising and attendance boosts. Revenue goes up and so does the team! Plus I just love his passion for the game which would exude to the rest of the team, passion = success if you got the tools to back it up and he has them.

edabbs44
08-15-2006, 09:02 PM
There have also been plenty of great young pitchers that became less-than-great older pitchers.

Would you have traded for Javier Vazquez? How about Ismael Valdez? Mike Hampton? Billy Swift? Atlee Hammaker? Mike Hampton? Ramon Martinez? Plenty of good young pitchers flame out as well.

In fact mostly due to injury, I would guess the attrition rate is much higher for young pitchers.
Look at the numbers for some of those guys you named. How can you compare Swift to Willis? Swift won over 11 games once in his career...at the age of 31. Look at Martinez' numbers...pretty solid. Wouldn't mind his success. Hammaker had one above average season. Hampton didn't have an ERA over 3.83 until he got to Colorado. If they could trade EdE for Hampton's equivalent stats, I'd be all over it.

Ron Madden
08-16-2006, 03:44 AM
Call me a bit old fashioned, call me a stat head or call me a fool. I believe it would be a major mistake to trade EE for Willis right now or after the season.

I believe signing any Pitcher to a long term contract is a sucker bet or at least a very expensive roll of the dice.

Things aint easy for Pitchers, every pitch could be your last due to the unnatural stress put on the arm. Or a shot hit back up the middle.

Small market clubs must develop talent, recognize the value of that talent and identify the wants and needs of other clubs in order to remain competitive. Let's hope WK keeps this in mind. :)

puca
08-16-2006, 08:20 AM
agree EdE is a great young ballplayer, but there have been plenty of EdEs. Would you have dealt Kevin Maas for Willis? How about Kearns, pre Ray King avalanche? Ben Grieve? Jerome Walton? Bob Hamelin?

Listen, I love EdE and I hope he'll be here for a long time. But one thing this team has been missing is a front of the rotation starter. And Willis is that. Check out his numbers last year. Do you think maybe he's being affected by the fire sale from last year? I have no idea. But last week at this time I think this board would have been all over this deal. If WK asked me about this deal and he said he could lock up Willis for 5+ years, I would say YES.

I could point out that there is no comparison between Jerome Walton and EdE. I could also point out that Hamelin, Maas and Greive were non-athletic corner of/1b types and that Hamelin and Maas were a few years older than EdE (which matters greatly in projecting hitters).

But I won't. ;)



Look at the numbers for some of those guys you named. How can you compare Swift to Willis? Swift won over 11 games once in his career...at the age of 31. Look at Martinez' numbers...pretty solid. Wouldn't mind his success. Hammaker had one above average season. Hampton didn't have an ERA over 3.83 until he got to Colorado. If they could trade EdE for Hampton's equivalent stats, I'd be all over it.

Okay, maybe Swift was a bad example. I didn't look up the age where he one his ERA title - for some reason I thought he was younger. Take away Swift and add Britt Burns, Mark Gubizca, Mark Fidrych, Joe Magraine, Steve Avery and even Kerry Wood to the list of guys who burned brightly at a young age but didn't couldn't sustain it.

Maybe Hammaker, Fidrych and some of th eothers didn't have a run as long as Willis is currently enjoying, but it was because of injuries. Injuries happen. They happen quite often to pitchers. There is no timetable for injuries. Sometimes they derail a career. That is my point. For completely different reasons, Willis is no more a sure thing than EdE.

edabbs44
08-16-2006, 09:48 AM
I could point out that there is no comparison between Jerome Walton and EdE. I could also point out that Hamelin, Maas and Greive were non-athletic corner of/1b types and that Hamelin and Maas were a few years older than EdE (which matters greatly in projecting hitters).

But I won't. ;)


Okay, maybe Swift was a bad example. I didn't look up the age where he one his ERA title - for some reason I thought he was younger. Take away Swift and add Britt Burns, Mark Gubizca, Mark Fidrych, Joe Magraine, Steve Avery and even Kerry Wood to the list of guys who burned brightly at a young age but didn't couldn't sustain it.

Maybe Hammaker, Fidrych and some of th eothers didn't have a run as long as Willis is currently enjoying, but it was because of injuries. Injuries happen. They happen quite often to pitchers. There is no timetable for injuries. Sometimes they derail a career. That is my point. For completely different reasons, Willis is no more a sure thing than EdE.
I understand your point, but the Reds haven't had a very good young ML pitcher since forever. And pitching is much harder to obtain and develop than hitting is. So if you are able to get a pitcher like that, it's tough to say no to. Since Willis has a track record longer than EdE's.

Johnny Footstool
08-16-2006, 12:06 PM
Willis' peripheral numbers say he's mediocre at best and has benefitted greatly from his defense. Low K/9 means he's prone to long stretches of little or no success -- kind of like he's having this season.

He's been hyped as a great pitcher, so people tend to believe he is even when he isn't.