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flyer85
08-15-2006, 04:02 PM
from BP


Optioned OF-R Chris Denorfia (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/denorch01.shtml) to Louisville (Triple-A). [8/10]
Returned LHP Kent Mercker (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/merckke01.shtml) to the 15-day DL (elbow inflammation); purchased the contract of LHP Chris Michalak (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/michach01.shtml) from Louisville; designated 2B/SS-R William Bergolla (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/bergowi01.shtml) for assignment. [8/12]
Optioned RHP Elizardo Ramirez (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/ramirel01.shtml) to Louisville; recalled LHP Brian Shackelford (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/shackbr01.shtml) from Louisville. [8/13]
Let's get this straight: the team needs three lefties in the pen beyond having a left-handed closer? And it's potentially going to make a journeyman like Michalak its fifth starter down the stretch? And it wants to go to the mat with Todd Hollandsworth (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/hollato01.shtml) (replacing Denorfia) and Juan Castro (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/castrju01.shtml) as key reserves? I guess that combination of events might make you think the Reds were in the International League while being managed by Tony LaRussa, but such is not the case.
Instead, you have a team that has shipped out Ramirez after starting him without any restóread that again, but I assure you, he pitched in the 14-inning game on the 11th, then got drubbed starting on the 12th. Now, maybe if this was still a team being managed by Bob Boone, you could accept this as some sort of weird experiment, destined for failure like all of Boone's passing fancies. But that isn't the caseóthis is a team in the thick of the wild-card chase, and it should be minding every roster move and every game carefully. Maybe this is a mistake you put on manager Jerry Narron, but I think this is more basically a screwup by Wayne Krivsky, in what has become a litany of stretch-drive missteps. Ramirez hasn't been outstanding of late, but two quality starts in his five since the All-Star break before that sort of mismanagement indicates to me that he isn't Joe Mays (http://baseballprospectus.com/dt/maysjo01.shtml). The fact that, after the game, Narron talked about how well things worked out, when Ramirez got drubbed, should leave any observer boggled. The Reds may lead, but when you get this punch-drunk on roster management, it hardly bodes any better than making the Bray/Majewski deal did.
So what about this latest addition to the rotation? Michalak's had a nice year at Louisville, allowing 3.8 runs per nine. He's also allowed 17 home runs in 132.1 innings, and he can't dent bread with his best cheese. He's not really a groundball pitcher (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=136422&tm=LouIL&bp=p), so put him in the GA(B)P, and it seems to me you've got a formula for big-fly mayhem. It's a reflection on the Reds' relative desperation that they've reached this spot, but between mismanaging Ramirez and winding up with an overstocked pen that still isn't that good, its become pretty obvious that things aren't working out all that well.

Doc. Scott
08-15-2006, 04:18 PM
I agree with Kahrl about the bad move of starting Ramirez right after he pitched in relief the night before, but Christina obviously hasn't processed how bad EZ was struggling. I agree with the Reds' decision to option Ramirez to AAA.

I also don't think there's been any indication that Michalak will be a main rotation cog, either, beyond talk of the one start.

I also agree with Kahrl about Hollandsworth vs. Denorfia, but Todd's not coming back in 2007 and Denorfia likely is, so it's not a lethally bad decision to go with Hollandsworth in the pennant race at this point.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 04:20 PM
I agree with Kahrl about the bad move of starting Ramirez right after he pitched in relief the night before, but Christina obviously hasn't processed how bad EZ was struggling. I agree with the Reds' decision to option Ramirez to AAA.

I also don't think there's been any indication that Michalak will be a main rotation cog, either, beyond talk of the one start.One would think the Reds need another RH reliever going into the series against a heavily RH team like the Cards and following it up with the RH Pirates.

lollipopcurve
08-15-2006, 04:25 PM
Ah yes -- series of poor moves reverses 9-20 nosedive and keeps team in wild card lead -- how pitiful.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 04:33 PM
Ah yes -- series of poor moves reverses 9-20 nosedive and keeps team in wild card lead -- how pitiful.correlation does not imply causation

Roy Tucker
08-15-2006, 04:40 PM
I still don't like Denorfia not being on the potential playoff roster.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 04:42 PM
I still don't like Denorfia not being on the potential playoff roster.that is an issue the Reds seriously need to deal with. If no Denorfia there is no speed on the bench and there is no way you need three catchers in a playoff series.

IslandRed
08-15-2006, 04:45 PM
If the K-Rod loophole is still in effect, then with all the guys we have on the 60-day DL we could put just about anyone we wanted on the postseason roster, particularly if MLB still has the "eh, whatever" attitude. The only thing they truly seem to care about is that the guy was in the organization before September 1.

15fan
08-15-2006, 04:48 PM
there is no way you need three catchers in a playoff series.

That never stopped Booby Cox when he was constructing the Braves' post-season lineup.

Every year, he'd put 3 catchers on the roster.

And every year, it would bite him in the butt.

It's been like watching Sisyphus.

lollipopcurve
08-15-2006, 04:49 PM
correlation does not imply causation

Of course, there are many causes, but I fail to understand how all the roster moves can be broadbrushed as "punch drunk" when that trade marked the end of a 9-20 streak and the beginning of a .500+ stretch. One would have to think that the moves have had some positive bearing, though it's clear that Kahrl has no interest in noting any positive contributions from new arrivals (Castro, Lohse, Guardado) nor in allowing for the possibility of an intangible influence such as the proverbial "sent message" from the FO. Why would she, when it's so superior to condescend?

flyer85
08-15-2006, 04:54 PM
Of course, there are many causes, but I fail to understand how all the roster moves can be broadbrushed as "punch drunk" because it is really hard to see how, other than adding Guardado, the moves have helped the team(everyday Freel was simply unintended happenstance). It has resembled churning more than anything else. There has been a lot of activity but the Reds are basically in the same place they were a month ago. They have been running in place.

And now that 5th starter spot and RH relief are sore thumbs sticking out there.

Danny Serafini
08-15-2006, 04:56 PM
If the K-Rod loophole is still in effect, then with all the guys we have on the 60-day DL we could put just about anyone we wanted on the postseason roster, particularly if MLB still has the "eh, whatever" attitude. The only thing they truly seem to care about is that the guy was in the organization before September 1.

The one catch is that they have to replace the injured players with someone at the same position, so right now all they can add are pitchers. That said, don't be surprised when August 31st rolls around to see an injured scrub minor league OF get called up and instantly placed on the 60 day DL so they can "replace" him with Denorfia.

lollipopcurve
08-15-2006, 04:59 PM
They have been running in place.

As opposed to sinking like a stone, which is what would have happened had Krivsky stared at the the Pythag and sat on his hands.

I give the FO credit for trying.

VR
08-15-2006, 04:59 PM
Silly article. Ramirez had his ticket Louisville the night before....he only started out of desperation. Does anyone following this team daily think he should have been kept up here?

A guy with a 9 ERA over 20+ innings has something going wrong. Mechanics, fatigue, tipping pitches......all elements you don't want to work through in the bigs.....in a pennant race.

You hope he can go down, get things healthy or fixed, and be an impact when they need it the last 4 weeks of the season.

redsmetz
08-15-2006, 05:04 PM
Silly article. Ramirez had his ticket Louisville the night before....he only started out of desperation. Does anyone following this team daily think he should have been kept up here?

A guy with a 9 ERA over 20+ innings has something going wrong. Mechanics, fatigue, tipping pitches......all elements you don't want to work through in the bigs.....in a pennant race.

You hope he can go down, get things healthy or fixed, and be an impact when they need it the last 4 weeks of the season.

I thought the same thing. This writer clearly didn't do their homework. It was the night before AND the previous start against St. Louis. I like Ramierez long term if he can find himself again, but he needed to go down.

These pundits aren't like the duct tape and all on this team. I think we're going to hang tight with everybody. We've got our work cut out for us, but I'm hopeful.

Johnny Footstool
08-15-2006, 05:07 PM
Ah yes -- series of poor moves reverses 9-20 nosedive and keeps team in wild card lead -- how pitiful.

It was a 17-20 nosedive.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 05:07 PM
As opposed to sinking like a stone, which is what would have happened had Krivsky stared at the the Pythag and sat on his hands.
little evidence of that. The Reds have been worse in run differential after the break than before it. They are -29 run differential for the season and -14 of that has come in the month after the break.

redsmetz
08-15-2006, 05:11 PM
little evidence of that. The Reds have been worse in run differential after the break than before it. They are -29 run differential for the season and -14 of that has come in the month after the break.

I'll take a game and a half back in mid August any day regardless of run differentials or Pythagorian thereoms or whatever.

flyer85
08-15-2006, 05:14 PM
I'll take a game and a half back in mid August any day regardless of run differentials or Pythagorian thereoms or whatever.Ok, but has nothing to do with the point of the discussion.

Kc61
08-15-2006, 05:14 PM
I trust Krivsky and the pros running the Reds front office. I disagree with just about every word of this article.

EZ pitched because of extreme circumstances. Denorfia did not do well while up, hit lots of grounders to short and muffed a key outfield play. Castro has been superb as a reserve this year, defensively and, yes, offensively. Michalak had a good AAA year and can keep teams off balance the first time through the league. Shackleford has a special ability to get out lefties that the other relievers don't have. Hollandsworth is a veteran who has always hit pretty well; he fits the team's needs perfectly.

With the exception of the acquisition of Majewski, I support every move these new FO guys have made. (I think the Reds should have received a better/healthier reliever in the Nats deal.) Now, let's beat the Cards.

westofyou
08-15-2006, 05:19 PM
little evidence of that. The Reds have been worse in run differential after the break than before it. They are -29 run differential for the season and -14 of that has come in the month after the break.
In the central only the Astros are positive since the AS Game, it's like the old black and blue division of the NFC Central...

Now back to the Astros, they walked 8 times yesterday and still didn't score a run, just a pitiful offense at times.

VR
08-15-2006, 05:26 PM
It was a 17-20 nosedive.

Or 8 of 9

Or 18 of 25

The 8 game winning streak being alluded to was made up of 7 quality starts and 6 wins by the starters. The two relief wins coming on the behalf of blown saves.

The starters rocked....the relievers stunk. The fact that the starters decided to stink as well during the next 29 games didn't get relievers of the stink wagon.

Johnny Footstool
08-16-2006, 01:25 AM
I'll take a game and a half back in mid August any day regardless of run differentials or Pythagorian thereoms or whatever.

Iceberg in the water.

REDREAD
08-16-2006, 01:42 AM
Karhl seems to be one of these writers that loves to claim being smarter than the GM. Every piece I've seen him/her write is like that (although I admit I haven't read everything that it has written).

Crying about the Lizard getting sent down? That was a move that had to be made. Yes, our poor minors isn't likely to offer anything better, but you can't bury your head in the sand and just let the Lizard get rocked every time. I would've prefered to start Franklin and Lohse at the back of the rotation instead of giving Michaleak a start.

Yes, we are overloaded in LH pitching in the bullpen, but it's more important to get the best guys you have available on the roster.

I can't see why people are upset over Denofornia being sent down either. Yes, Hollandsworth isn't that great, but Chris Deno wasn't hitting, and this team can't carry a pinch running specialist with 12 guys in the pen, 3 catchers, and Castro.

Cedric
08-16-2006, 01:48 AM
Karhl seems to be one of these writers that loves to claim being smarter than the GM. Every piece I've seen him/her write is like that (although I admit I haven't read everything that it has written).

Crying about the Lizard getting sent down? That was a move that had to be made. Yes, our poor minors isn't likely to offer anything better, but you can't bury your head in the sand and just let the Lizard get rocked every time. I would've prefered to start Franklin and Lohse at the back of the rotation instead of giving Michaleak a start.

Yes, we are overloaded in LH pitching in the bullpen, but it's more important to get the best guys you have available on the roster.

I can't see why people are upset over Denofornia being sent down either. Yes, Hollandsworth isn't that great, but Chris Deno wasn't hitting, and this team can't carry a pinch running specialist with 12 guys in the pen, 3 catchers, and Castro.

Elizardo reminds me so much of a younger Jose Acevado. Just horrible stuff and one lucky stretch.