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Rojo
08-17-2006, 04:40 PM
Its now an insane 22-2 since joining the team.

osuceltic
08-17-2006, 04:41 PM
Its now an insane 22-2 since joining the team.
Another lucky break for Krivsky ...

penantboundreds
08-17-2006, 05:01 PM
yeah osu dowwwwwner

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 05:02 PM
Only place to go: down.

CTA513
08-17-2006, 05:11 PM
Hes pitched good in his 3 starts for the Reds.
The bullpen blew 2 of his starts and today he left the game with a 1-1 tie.
Lohse has about a 1.96 ERA in his 3 starts and the Reds have lost all 3 games.

Rojo
08-17-2006, 05:16 PM
Only place to go: down.

Every silver-lining has its cloud.

HotCorner
08-17-2006, 05:28 PM
Another lucky break for Krivsky ...

http://nappydesigns.com/wp-uploads/debbie_downer.jpg

smith288
08-17-2006, 05:31 PM
Only place to go: down.
You live in darkness or what?

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 06:11 PM
You live in darkness or what?

Yes. And in that darkness, I'm completely naked.

TeamBoone
08-17-2006, 06:19 PM
Isn't it just as possible that he's getting better? Perhaps Hume has helped him overcome a weakness. Perhaps the change of scenery has been a blessing.

Sometimes you just don't know what has jump-started someone... I'm just glad it did.

flyer85
08-17-2006, 06:21 PM
tells you that his success is not a fluke

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 06:24 PM
tells you that his success is not a fluke

What success is that?

Being well below average in the AL for 5 seasons?

flyer85
08-17-2006, 06:43 PM
What success is that?
over three starts, thats what the 2/22 ratio is all about. I assume you read from the top,

The point is you can have some success over a number of starts that is due to being BABIP lucky.

The success of Lohse is not due to "luck" in his starts, it is due to few BBs, a bunch of Ks and limited HRs.

Will it continue? WHo knows, but his current success as a Reds starter is not because he has been BABIP "lucky".

I will concede he has never missed bats at near the rate he is missing them in his starts with the Reds.

flyer85
08-17-2006, 06:58 PM
Chris Carpenter is a pitcher whose American league numbers were bad before getting to the NL at age 29

ERAs with Toronto
5.09, 4.37, 4.38, 6.26, 4.09, 5.28

Lohse - 5.68, 4.23, 4.61, 5.34, 4.18
(the above look very similar, neither very good)
with STL and posting
3.46, 2.83

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 07:13 PM
Chris Carpenter is a pitcher whose American league numbers were bad before getting to the NL at age 29

ERAs with Toronto
5.09, 4.37, 4.38, 6.26, 4.09, 5.28

Lohse - 5.68, 4.23, 4.61, 5.34, 4.18
(the above look very similar, neither very good)
with STL and posting
3.46, 2.83

Yeah, but Carpenter was a) injured often and b) had a breakout season in 2001 only to be injured in the following season before being picked up by the Cards the next season.

Lohse is many seasons removed from his "breakout" season (2003) and has presumably been healthy in the intervening years.

Rojo
08-17-2006, 07:16 PM
He's the same age as Harang and Aaron didn't have an era under four-and-a-half until last year.

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 07:21 PM
He's the same age as Harang and Aaron didn't have an era under four-and-a-half until last year.

I'm not saying that Lohse can't gaslight the NL for a while or that he won't continue to help the team down the stretch, but he is in no way a longterm rotation solution.

But I can't fault him so far. And if all Lohse was brought in to do was to help out down the stretch, I can't obviously fault Wayne for picking him up either.

But I think it's very, very dangerous to expect great things from him in the long or short term.

redsrule2500
08-17-2006, 07:26 PM
maybe krivsky is just a genius.

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 07:28 PM
maybe krivsky is just a genius.

I think that's been roundly disproven.

Nugget
08-17-2006, 07:35 PM
When you guys going to learn - if the REDS pick up a guys who is struggling in another team and manages to turn it around its fluke, he's going to return to career norms soon and the league will soon figure him out. Whereas if its the Cards or the Dodgers, they've unearthed an absolute gem and why couldn't the REDS have done it.

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 07:36 PM
When you guys going to learn - if the REDS pick up a guys who is struggling in another team and manages to turn it around its fluke, he's going to return to career norms soon and the league will soon figure him out. Whereas if its the Cards or the Dodgers, they've unearthed an absolute gem and why couldn't the REDS have done it.

I don't think Weaver is the answer to ANYTHING for the Cards; in the same way Lohse is no kind of answer for the Reds.

Rojo
08-17-2006, 07:37 PM
But I think it's very, very dangerous to expect great things from him in the long or short term.

It's my middle name, baby!

Falls City Beer
08-17-2006, 07:38 PM
It's my middle name, baby!

:confused:

Nugget
08-17-2006, 07:50 PM
I don't think Weaver is the answer to ANYTHING for the Cards; in the same way Lohse is no kind of answer for the Reds.

Neither would I. But I don't think writing off Lohse v Carpenter is either. Lohse has a chance. Same with BP. RA has managed to turn things up and whatever you say about Milton he has been serviceable this year. Another year of improvement who knows?

flyer85
08-17-2006, 08:16 PM
Carpenter had his arm surgery late in the 2002( a bad year), sat out all of 2003(while a Card).

2001 was not really a breakout season if you look at his peripherals(they still weren't good)
BB rate over 3, K rate of ~7, HR rate over 1.2. His ERA was down but the peripherals weren't all that different than his hideous 2000 season.

He was a stuff pitcher coming off arm surgery who had never really had a good season when he came to the Cards. No one could have predicted success let alone a Cy Young award.

Lohse is similar in that he has excellent stuff and for whatever reason hasn't put it together. If Carpenter can do it for the Cards then Lohse, its worth the gamble. He certainly has a ceiling that guys like EZ, Claussen, Germano, and others will never have.

The Reds will never have success trying to sign those top notch guys in the free agent market(cost is too high and the risk is too great). Plus look at that expensive 05 class and what a disaster they have been (Milton, Leiber, Benson, Ortiz, Clement, O Perez, etc).

Maybe the Reds can catch lightning in a bottle, even if only for a short time.

oregonred
08-17-2006, 08:27 PM
We should be 65-56 after Lohse's three starts and getting ready to print playoff tickets. We'd be in great shape for the playoffs if not for three crushing losses that coincided with his three starts...

That being said, this move has exceeded all expectations so far. I only saw him pitch the Braves game but this is actually a pitcher with some nice stuff. In other words there's more than hope he could turn out to be readily serviceable from now through at least 2007. The good news is that the Reds control his rights so its like an option for the org to see firsthand if he is someone you want to tender for '07 -- given lack of pitching options and at least two rotation holes, I suspect the answer is going to be yes. Getting pitchers with some decent stuff from the AL (BA, Guardado, Lohse) -- seems like a good model to follow into the offseason.

Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Lohse?
FA acq/trade (assuming we can deal Milton)

osuceltic
08-17-2006, 10:13 PM
http://nappydesigns.com/wp-uploads/debbie_downer.jpg
You guys need to check your sarcasm detector.

MartyFan
08-17-2006, 10:34 PM
I think Krivsky is a master at identifying talent that is an upgrade over the talent that the Reds have or have had in the past.

BTW...The Kearns/Lopez and Wagner deal with the Nationals will be one of his best when it is all said and done...Let it be writen!!!

Rojo
08-17-2006, 10:36 PM
:confused:

Danger

marcshoe
08-18-2006, 12:11 AM
At any rate, he's become a more interesting option than we've seen in the last couple of spots so far. I keep looking at his numbers prior to this, and I have no idea what's happened.

Maybe he is that rare player for whom things can suddenly click into place. I wn't hod my breath, but who knows?

GAC
08-18-2006, 06:04 AM
Only place to go: down.


Here at the family called Redzone, I'm gonna start referring to you as that "middle" child..... honery as hell! :lol:

lollipopcurve
08-18-2006, 08:23 AM
Lohse was in the rotation for some good Twins teams -- he's got ability.

I like his 4 pitch mix, headed by a decent fastball. Not sure how he holds up over 200 innings, but I definitely like him as a mainstay going into 2007 -- will be interesting to see if they try to keep him beyond next year.