Pinch me please

[lo ryder]

Did Milton really just bat with the bases loaded and 2 outs? Sorry, tonight was bowling night.

[redsmetz]

From the AP story


"I told [bench coach Bucky Dent] before the inning started, 'This inning Miltie is going to come up with a 3-2 game and [with] the bases loaded with two outs, and I'm going to let him hit,'" Narron said. "As well as he's pitching here, we've got a lot of game left and we've got our lineup coming up at least twice probably. I had a lot of confidence in our guys."

It was confidence rewarded.

It was a gutsy call and we got more innings out of Milton.

[muethibp]

Because it worked out and we won does not turn a poor decision into a gutsy one.

[Always Red]

plus, Uncle Milty has actually been hitting the ball well all year.

I think it was a good decision by Narron.

[redsmetz]

plus, Uncle Milty has actually been hitting the ball well all year.

I think it was a good decision by Narron.

I agree completely. Far too often folks are ready to decry every move of Narron's, but he's looking at the larger picture and we were served well by this decision.

[Razor Shines]

I think it just shows how little faith Narron has in the pen. Can you really blame him? Just Wednesday he sent the pen out there with a lead and they attemtped to burn down the entire stadium. Last night I hated the decision to let Milton hit, and I still don't like it, but I also thought "who else would I trust to pitch?". Milton was only around 65-70 pitches at the time, which is well below the point where he is extremely flammable. Seemed to me that Narron had the choice of placing his faith in our bullpen or our offense, obviously he went with the latter. So while I would probably not have let Milton hit, I can't find too much fault in his decision.

[Unassisted]

That move surprised me, too... until I remembered the bullpen's contribution in Wednesday's game.

[reds1869]

Because it worked out and we won does not turn a poor decision into a gutsy one.

The best hitter coming off our bench would only have had roughly a 30% better chance of reaching base than Milton. Narron made a reasonable risk/reward call, and it paid off big time.

[HotCorner]

Because it worked out and we won does not turn a poor decision into a gutsy one.

Poor decision or unpopular decision? Ultimately it worked out as he had planned so his decision was in fact a good one.

Not that I agree with his decision though. ;)

[muethibp]

The best hitter coming off our bench would only have had roughly a 30% better chance of reaching base than Milton. Narron made a reasonable risk/reward call, and it paid off big time.

Many other baseball decisions are made on far smaller margins than 30%. I don't think that's anything to wave away.

If it were Harang, I would have understood leaving him in. But Milton has seemed to have significant trouble in the 6th and on, so it seemed like it was time to go get him (low pitch count notwithstanding). But it worked out.

This is a situation where reasonable people can differ, though my heart and brain tells me that hitting for him was the right call at the time. But I understand why he made the decsion he made. It's not like it was a Milton v. Beltran or Franklin v. Duncan situation...

[cumberlandreds]

I think what this shows to is that Narron has very little confidence in his middle to long releif guys. If he had the supreme confidence in them he would have no doubt PH in that situation,IMO.

[Razor Shines]

The best hitter coming off our bench would only have had roughly a 30% better chance of reaching base than Milton. Narron made a reasonable risk/reward call, and it paid off big time.

There's no way that's correct. That would mean we have someone on the bench with an OBP around .530. It makes your point better, actually, that the best we had on the bench was only around .300.

[muethibp]

There's no way that's correct. That would mean we have someone on the bench with an OBP around .530. It makes your point better, actually, that the best we had on the bench was only around .300.

That's some pretty shady math there. Milton has an OBP of .229. Valentin has an OBP of .292. Valentin has a 28% better chance of getting on base than Milton.

[reds1869]

That's some pretty shady math there. Milton has an OBP of .229. Valentin has an OBP of .292. Valentin has a 28% better chance of getting on base than Milton.

Javy was exactly who I was thinking of. I was just estimating, but it looks like I was pretty close. Shocking since I failed the same math course twice in college. :)

Edit: in fairness, .292 is only 7% higher than .229; .292 is actually a 29% OBP.

[ol'Sparky]

Did Milton really just bat with the bases loaded and 2 outs? Sorry, tonight was bowling night.

and this one belongs to the reds !!:beerme:

[Razor Shines]

That's some pretty shady math there. Milton has an OBP of .229. Valentin has an OBP of .292. Valentin has a 28% better chance of getting on base than Milton.
I'm very confused. 29% is 28% better than 23%? Maybe I'm looking at wrong.

[reds1869]

There's no way that's correct. That would mean we have someone on the bench with an OBP around .530. It makes your point better, actually, that the best we had on the bench was only around .300.


After thinking about this I agree with you completely. I never was the best at math, as I mentioned above. Thanks for making me look better, only to have me shoot myself in the foot. ;)

[muethibp]

Javy was exactly who I was thinking of. I was just estimating, but it looks like I was pretty close. Shocking since I failed the same math course twice in college. :)

Edit: in fairness, .292 is only 7% higher than .229; .292 is actually a 29% OBP.

Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that while .292 is 63 percentage points higher than .229, considered as a percentage higher, .292 is .229 is 28% higher (you originally said 30% higher). Just like 100% higher than .229 is .458.

[Newman4]

Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that while .292 is 63 percentage points higher than .229, considered as a percentage higher, .292 is .229 is 28% higher (you originally said 30% higher). Just like 100% higher than .229 is .458.

That's correct if stating that .292 is 28% higher than .229. But what's incorrect is stating that he has a 28% or 30% better chance of reaching base because 1.000 is considered 100% not .229. Therefore, you're taking .229 and .292 out of 1.000 not out of .229. He actually had a 6.3 % better chance as well.

[SultanOfSwing]

I think what this shows to is that Narron has very little confidence in his middle to long relief guys. If he had the supreme confidence in them he would have no doubt PH in that situation,IMO.

I disagree, I think he has tremendous confidence in the revamped bullpen. But only a healthy, rested bullpen. Milton was pitching very well after the 2nd and had a very low pitch count. Narron has supreme confidence in his offense. They had already gotten into SF's bullpen, therefore it was likely that the Reds could score at least once more. Narron didn't want the same situation that Alou had. And too, Milton is a decent hitter; it's not a guarantee that a PH would have fared any better. IMO, it just wasn't worth the alternative risk with only a 1-run deficit.

[TeamBoone]

A tad more info on Narron's decision, which I agreed with at the time. At first I thought, what's he doing? And then I remembered the hit he got when he pinch hit the other night.


Milton's pitch count was so low - in the high 50s - and he was pitching well. The other factor was Narron's confidence that the Reds would score.