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View Full Version : Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?



Jim Fazio
08-26-2006, 05:58 PM
Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?

RedFanAlways1966
08-26-2006, 06:00 PM
Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?

Ask Hall-of-Famer Reggie Jackson... he had the same "problem". :)

Dom Heffner
08-26-2006, 06:00 PM
It's simply a matter of guessing. And when he guesses right, goodbye baseball.

If you want Tony Gwynn, you'll lose about 30 homers a year. Take your pick. Not everybody can be Carlos Beltran.

MWM
08-26-2006, 06:02 PM
Uh, because hitting a baseball against major league pitchers is hard.

westofyou
08-26-2006, 06:05 PM
18.5% of Dunns swings were misses last year.

ARod was 19.1% and he won the MVP.

Go figure.

forfreelin04
08-26-2006, 06:07 PM
Hard to do, true. But when he is striking out frequently he tends to not stay back on his back foot nearly as long which causes his swing to become longer. Hence the missing. I think he explained this himself one time on Welsh's Mechanics of the Game. You'll also see him swing at more pitches out of the zone which he is usually quite good at not doing. Usually, this is because he is trying to will himself out of a slump.

TOBTTReds
08-26-2006, 06:13 PM
Hard to do, true. But when he is striking out frequently he tends to not stay back on his back foot nearly as long which causes his swing to become longer. Hence the missing. I think he explained this himself one time on Welsh's Mechanics of the Game. You'll also see him swing at more pitches out of the zone which he is usually quite good at not doing. Usually, this is because he is trying to will himself out of a slump.


I believe the essential part is that his swing is so long. The longer your swing, the more you will miss. Imagine trying to hit a golf ball (if you play golf) with an 8 foot long driver. Now use a shorter 3-wood. Obviously easier to hit with the 3-wood. That is an exaggerated answer, but maybe you will get the idea.

forfreelin04
08-26-2006, 06:28 PM
Dunn is gonna have to carry this team pretty soon. Edwin is gonna cool off and I don't see Griffey doing it.

RedsManRick
08-26-2006, 06:30 PM
Recognizing the location of the ball visually and the ability to make your bat hit that ball are two different things. I don't know how actual scouts break it down, but I would do it this way:

1.) Ability to recognize pitch location (Rec)
2.) Ability to make contact (Con)
3.) Ability to drive the ball when contact is made (Pow)

If 10 is "Hall of Fame" ability, 5 is average major leaguer, and 0 is unsuitable for the majors, I'd rate Dunn:

Pow: 10
Rec: 9
Con: 4

Frankly I'm surprised more pitchers don't challenge him, particularly when the bases are empty. He's got some places in the zone where he doesn't make great contact. However, if gets one in his wheelhouse, he'll crush it.

Now that Barry Bonds' bat has slowed, you'll notice his contact rate is way down. Same with Frank Thomas. Each of the above three skills age differently. Contact ability tends to peak early in a player's career (before 30). Contact is about hand/eye coordination and fast twitch muscles. These are, for the most part, in decline throughout a player's career. This isn't always reflected in batting average, because of the way contact interacts with power and recognition when it comes to actually getting hits.

Dunn has what are often referred to as "old player" skills. That doesn't bode well for his career arc. It's not likely that he'll ever hit for higher averages than he does now, though he could if he fixes a specific problem which causes him to make poor contact now. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain a .260ish average as he goes in to his early 30's.

BigREDSfaninKY
08-26-2006, 06:35 PM
18.5% of Dunns swings were misses last year.

ARod was 19.1% and he won the MVP.

Go figure.

Where do you find these stats?:confused:

Handofdeath
08-26-2006, 06:37 PM
Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?

I think the root of it and of a lot of the Reds problems at times is lack of discipline. At their best the Reds can beat anybody in MLB. But sometimes they do the dumbest things and they were doing it before Narron got there. Just a general lack of fundamentals.

forfreelin04
08-26-2006, 06:40 PM
Fundamentals, Oh no! Fundamentals in baseball!! You have awaken the Lords of the Stat!!! I can hear there murmurs!!!

gilpdawg
08-26-2006, 06:41 PM
Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?
Because he swings a lot.

forfreelin04
08-26-2006, 06:48 PM
Because he swings a lot.

Short and simple. I love it. He does seem to be swinging alot more then normal. I hate caught looking K's, but at least he is getting burned by the umpires on those low strike calls and not hurting himself.

Handofdeath
08-26-2006, 06:57 PM
Fundamentals, Oh no! Fundamentals in baseball!! You have awaken the Lords of the Stat!!! I can hear there murmurs!!!
SHHH!!! Maybe if we remain quiet they'll stay away. Or we can just quietly chant OBP! OBP! OBP!;)

HumnHilghtFreel
08-26-2006, 07:04 PM
I agree that it's because of his long swing, which leaves a lot of holes. If he shortened it up he probably would be more effective at putting a bat on the ball more often. However, I think he's getting paid more for his longball than his singles, so the long swing works for him.

forfreelin04
08-26-2006, 07:16 PM
SHHH!!! Maybe if we remain quiet they'll stay away. Or we can just quietly chant OBP! OBP! OBP!;)


HAHA Classic. I'm all for OBP, but to say there is no such thing has bad fundementals in baseball is a crock.

fearofpopvol1
08-26-2006, 09:01 PM
3 things likely to happen when Dunn comes to the plate.

1.) It's a strikeout
2.) It's a walk
3.) It's a homerun

mth123
08-26-2006, 09:04 PM
3 things likely to happen when Dunn comes to the plate.

1.) It's a strikeout
2.) It's a walk
3.) It's a homerun

I bet he has a pretty good DIPS OPS:D

UK Reds Fan
08-26-2006, 10:00 PM
Bottom-line for both Dunn and Griffey...
With the extreme shifts both of these guys see each at bat, no excuse for shortening the stroke with runners on or 2 strikes and punching it the other way.

It is extremely frustrating to see 2 hitters at 3 and 5 that struggle to get on base without luxury of a walk so often in Dunn and Griffey. When a pitcher can stay ahead of those guys early in the count and not give base on balls to Griff and Dunn, our offense is going to be pretty much hard to be consistent because these 2 can't consistently put good wood on the ball.

I think it is personally selfish of these 2 to continually go for the downs and pull every freaking ball like they do in those extreme shifts. Dunn personally left the last 2 games with so many opportunities to get runners in or move them over, but he's trying to knock it thru a brick wall instead of just putting the lumber on the ball and making solid contact. But as long as Dunn hits the long ball, most on here will kiss his behind and crown him better than he truly is. EdE, Hatteburg, Ross and Aurillia have all been more important to our offense this year than Griff or Dunn IMO.

mth123
08-26-2006, 10:13 PM
EdE, Hatteburg, Ross and Aurillia have all been more important to our offense this year than Griff or Dunn IMO.

While I see your point and really like what these guys (and Phillips and Freel) bring to the table offensively, make no mistake that Griffey and Dunn are still the guys who other pitchers and managers pitch and manage around. That sets the other players up to succeed. I seriously doubt that any of the role players mentioned above would be as good w/o Dunn and Griffey as focal points. (EdE is moving from role player to focal point before our very eyes though!)

lo ryder
08-26-2006, 10:28 PM
Several valid points have been made on this topic. I will throw in my .02 also

Hitting in the bigs requires a tremendous amount of hand to eye coordination. Anyone who has watched Dunn play defense can see this is not one of his strongest assets. Many may disagree, but I still would argue Austin Kearns had more overall talent than Adam, but both could be valuable to a team in his own way.

And yes, I still despise the TRADE!:D

BoydsOfSummer
08-26-2006, 11:30 PM
Physics? :dunno:

Always Red
08-27-2006, 12:59 AM
Many may disagree, but I still would argue Austin Kearns had more overall talent than Adam, but both could be valuable to a team in his own way.


The funny thing is that I was always astounded at the number of times Kearns himself would swing and miss. He never struck out as much as Dunn, but I've never seen anyone swing and miss as much as Kearns. He has an enormous hole in his swing, inside and just above the belt.

Maybe woy can tell us Kearns' % of swings and misses?;)

westofyou
08-27-2006, 01:08 AM
Maybe woy can tell us Kearns' % of swings and misses?

Nah, I only have the top 10 from last year (BTW it's in the Bill James Stat Book by Baseball Infosolutions)

Larue led the league with 24% last year..... and as far as Kearns he's still 2nd on the Reds in K's for the year.

UK Reds Fan
08-27-2006, 06:55 AM
While I see your point and really like what these guys (and Phillips and Freel) bring to the table offensively, make no mistake that Griffey and Dunn are still the guys who other pitchers and managers pitch and manage around. That sets the other players up to succeed. I seriously doubt that any of the role players mentioned above would be as good w/o Dunn and Griffey as focal points. (EdE is moving from role player to focal point before our very eyes though!)

At this point in his career, I think fans make way more out of Griffey's value than opposing pitchers do. I see pitchers go right at Griff, if you pitch to your gameplan, Griff tends to hit right into the shift. I don't see anyone this year really pitching around Griff, if they are, why isn't his OBP sky high?

mth123
08-27-2006, 07:47 AM
At this point in his career, I think fans make way more out of Griffey's value than opposing pitchers do. I see pitchers go right at Griff, if you pitch to your gameplan, Griff tends to hit right into the shift. I don't see anyone this year really pitching around Griff, if they are, why isn't his OBP sky high?

There is some validity to your point, but his OBP is lower because he is swinging at too much Crap! He is being pitched Crap for the reasons I mentioned earlier. OBP doesn't tell the whole story. Hatte has a great OBP but no one is pitching around him. I tend to think he is having a good year partly because he is hitting in front of Griffey. Dunn's best streak of the year was when he was in front of Griffey. And don't think that Edwin's emergence isn't at least partly because he hits between Griffey and Dunn. Similarly, Griffey has gotten a little hotter as Edwin has emerged. As I said earlier, Edwin is moving into that category before our eyes.

I agree that Griffey is on the down side but some times I wonder if fans see it sooner than the players. We follow what he is doing each day. Opposing players only see him once in a while and may chalk up any bad games as a slump, remembering the guy he used to be. I, of course, have no real way of knowing this, just my theory. I have the same theory as to why players and to some extent Managers like veterans. Guys on the down side are remembered for what they were. They have never seen the young guys.

Handofdeath
08-29-2006, 07:55 PM
The funny thing is that I was always astounded at the number of times Kearns himself would swing and miss. He never struck out as much as Dunn, but I've never seen anyone swing and miss as much as Kearns. He has an enormous hole in his swing, inside and just above the belt.

Maybe woy can tell us Kearns' % of swings and misses?;)


I do know that Kearns is still 2nd on the team in K's and hasn't been with the Reds in quite a while.

OldRightHander
08-29-2006, 08:17 PM
but to say there is no such thing has bad fundementals in baseball is a crock.

Everyone's favorite poster. You bring back fond memories.

RichRed
08-30-2006, 02:11 PM
HAHA Classic. I'm all for OBP, but to say there is no such thing has bad fundementals in baseball is a crock.

I must've missed the post that said there's no such thing as bad fundamentals. Where is it?

TeamBoone
08-30-2006, 06:06 PM
He wasn't missing too much last night! Until JN double-switched him out of the game anyway. Unfortunate to say the least as the Reds pretty much played another full game after that point.

Ltlabner
08-30-2006, 07:32 PM
Since we're mired in a horribly timed losing streak and many of you were up till the wee hours this morning only to be heartrbroken I thought some laughs were in order.

How about these classics from your favorite poster from the past (BF, that is) :


Has anyone seen alot of Encarnacion live? He is certainly NOT a speed guy and NOT going to be a big HR guy. - 14 HR and 29 2B in a injury shortened season.


I've seen plenty of players hit 20 homeruns who I wouldn't be too excited to have in batting order. Huh?


HOWEVER, allow me to remind a few of you about a team some thirty years ago in cincinnati that won the world series back to back with a group of pitchers not altogether of different caliber than the current crop. The Big Red Machine pitchers were of the same caliber as 2005's Ortiz and Milton? Wow.


I'll check hitting chart tonite and have a response for you. Until then enjoy your .230 hitting can't miss prospect who reds got in a TRADE. Actually, EE is hitting 2.93BA, .377 OBP and 5.25SLG.


Thank god for Chris Denorfia. Oh yes. The world would be a far less safe place if it wern't for the crime fighting super-hero that is Deno.


Denorfia, a player who in just a handful of games has shown solid eye at plate and ability to use opposite field, A solid eye that has produced a .208BA, .309OBP and impressive .250 SLG.


When Reds stop setting new marks in baseball history for strikeouts every year and become better with hitting/fielding fundamentals then yes, pitching will no doubt improve just by association..................................... I see.....I wish someone would tell BA that all he has to do to get back to pitching well is to help LaRue get his hitting groove back.

Anyway, we are all entitled to our opinions. I'm sure if someone did a bunch of one line quotes from my posts I'd sound pretty silly too.

Hope this chears us up a bit...... :)