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View Full Version : Should Dunn be moved down in the batting order?



Wheelhouse
08-27-2006, 07:46 PM
Or would he perform as poorly? One thing I know, having such a millstone in the middle of the batting order is doing a number on the offense.

guttle11
08-27-2006, 07:47 PM
He should hit second.

Hatteberg, with his ability to get on base, would fit in anywhere in the lineup.

cincrazy
08-27-2006, 07:53 PM
I agree. Dunn was lighting it up hitting 2nd. I don't know if that would change anything now, but we should at least give it a shot.

Wheelhouse
08-27-2006, 07:56 PM
He should hit second.

Hatteberg, with his ability to get on base, would fit in anywhere in the lineup.

I dunno--I like the feeling of a good at-bat in the second slot. You almost never get that from Dunn.

I say mix him in down at 7 or 8. Take some pressure and expectations off. We know he doesn't repond well to pressure base on his avg with RISP. He might pull out of this downturn in his year if he were in a more laid-back place in the lineup.

Tom Servo
08-27-2006, 07:59 PM
I've been in favor of switching Dunn and Hatt in the batting order since the new "everyday" lineup was first used.

CTA513
08-27-2006, 08:00 PM
If Dunns going to hit 8th then we should see his walks increase as other teams will give him nothing to hit so they can pitch to the pitcher.

Newman4
08-27-2006, 08:03 PM
How about they move Griffey out of the 3 hole before we worry about Dunn hitting #5?

CTA513
08-27-2006, 08:06 PM
How about they move Griffey out of the 3 hole before we worry about Dunn hitting #5?

When Griffey was struggeling they left him in the #3 hole untill he broke out of it.

pedro
08-27-2006, 08:10 PM
Nope.He should be moved back to 2nd where he hit .333

SteelSD
08-27-2006, 08:10 PM
I dunno--I like the feeling of a good at-bat in the second slot. You almost never get that from Dunn.

Right...

Adam Dunn 2006- 2 slot: .333 BA/.433 OBP/.627 SLG- 1.060 OPS

The guy has also posted a .409 OBP/.648 SLG- 1.025 OPS w/RISP.

Yeah, no "good at-bats" and just crumbles with RISP. Sure. Good one.

justincredible
08-27-2006, 08:11 PM
Dunn should be moved back up to #2 in the order. He was lighting it up from the #2 spot.

Wheelhouse
08-27-2006, 08:53 PM
Right...

Adam Dunn 2006- 2 slot: .333 BA/.433 OBP/.627 SLG- 1.060 OPS

The guy has also posted a .409 OBP/.648 SLG- 1.025 OPS w/RISP.

Yeah, no "good at-bats" and just crumbles with RISP. Sure. Good one.

Wanna fight? Seems so. Goof. Mods please watch for this incendiary poster.

SteelSD
08-27-2006, 09:00 PM
Wanna fight? Seems so. Goof. Mods please watch for this incendiary poster.

Yeah, call me a name and then ask for the mods to watch out for me?

Wow. Top notch stuff there.

And yes, when you say things like Dunn "doesn't respond well to pressure" when his performance says otherwise you need to be corrected. You want to avoid being challenged, then be more accurate.

pedro
08-27-2006, 09:04 PM
Wanna fight? Seems so. Goof. Mods please watch for this incendiary poster.


Are you calling Steel out? That's so cute.

Maybe you should challenge him to a drag race at the old quarry?

That'll show him. Plus then you'd finally get to make the grade with Becky. She's the tops.

Wheelhouse
08-27-2006, 09:17 PM
Yeah, call me a name and then ask for the mods to watch out for me?

Wow. Top notch stuff there.

And yes, when you say things like Dunn "doesn't respond well to pressure" when his performance says otherwise you need to be corrected. You want to avoid being challenged, then be more accurate.

Corrected? You're assuming your OPS nonsense is true...Dunn's astronomical K's offset any benefits his OBP gives. The strikeout is the worst AB in the game, aside from hitting into a double play. Fully 1/3 of the time Adam Dunn steps to the plate, the outcome is the worst (again aside from a DP) at-bat a hitter can have. I'm sorry, at that rate when he does make contact, you've gotta do alot more than hit .246 and hit solo home runs.

Wheelhouse
08-27-2006, 09:19 PM
Are you calling Steel out? That's so cute.

Maybe you should challenge him to a drag race at the old quarry?

That'll show him. Plus then you'd finally get to make the grade with Becky. She's the tops.

Yes. In the spirit of his childishness, I thought he would understand that lingo.

BEETTLEBUG
08-27-2006, 09:36 PM
I agree Dunn should hit second.

joshnky
08-27-2006, 09:41 PM
To get this thread back from the hijackers I agree that we need to shake up the lineup. Bat Dunn second, maybe BP first, RA 4th, whatever I don't care. MAybe this team enjoys Narron's constant tinkering and can't handle stability. I don't care if they call up the entire AAA starting 8 to start if it jump starts the offense (although I don't recommend this).

guttle11
08-27-2006, 09:41 PM
Are you calling Steel out? That's so cute.

Maybe you should challenge him to a drag race at the old quarry?

That'll show him. Plus then you'd finally get to make the grade with Becky. She's the tops.

As long as they don't drain it. Boomhauer must never know...

The answer is beyond obvious. Adam Dunn is best out of the #2 spot. Maybe if we start enough threads about it Alan Cutler will bring it up, then Narron will make it happen. Alan gets things done, you know.

ghettochild
08-27-2006, 09:42 PM
He should hit second.

Hatteberg, with his ability to get on base, would fit in anywhere in the lineup.
qft

SteelSD
08-27-2006, 10:03 PM
Corrected? You're assuming your OPS nonsense is true...Dunn's astronomical K's offset any benefits his OBP gives. The strikeout is the worst AB in the game, aside from hitting into a double play. Fully 1/3 of the time Adam Dunn steps to the plate, the outcome is the worst (again aside from a DP) at-bat a hitter can have. I'm sorry, at that rate when he does make contact, you've gotta do alot more than hit .246 and hit solo home runs.

This season, we see an 83% correlation between high team RISP BA and high team RISP Runs Scored per PA. The correlation between high RISP OPS and high RISP RS/PA is 87%. It's 89% for high SLG.

Let's take a look at RBI per PA correlations now:

RBI/PA to BA: 85%
RBI/PA to OPS: 89%
RBI/PA to SLG: 90%

Unlike you, I assume nothing. Instead, I check things out. Those are the correlations. I can't make them up. I can't fake them, alter them, or spin them. Both OPS and SLG are more important w/RISP than is Batting Average. And I'm not going to get started on yet another rebuttal to your strikeout nonsense. That's been firmly rebuffed every time someone posts about it. It's been long over. You hate Dunn. Yes, we know this. Pick yourself up and move on.

You simply don't have facts on your side here. That's nothing new, but it sure does get old as does your trend of personally attacking anyone who won't allow you to consistently post mistruths.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2006, 10:20 PM
Nope.He should be moved back to 2nd where he hit .333

Agreed. It was stupid to drop him in the first place.

Wheelhouse
08-27-2006, 10:31 PM
This season, we see an 83% correlation between high team RISP BA and high team RISP Runs Scored per PA. The correlation between high RISP OPS and high RISP RS/PA is 87%. It's 89% for high SLG.

Let's take a look at RBI per PA correlations now:

RBI/PA to BA: 85%
RBI/PA to OPS: 89%
RBI/PA to SLG: 90%

Unlike you, I assume nothing. Instead, I check things out. Those are the correlations. I can't make them up. I can't fake them, alter them, or spin them. Both OPS and SLG are more important w/RISP than is Batting Average. And I'm not going to get started on yet another rebuttal to your strikeout nonsense. That's been firmly rebuffed every time someone posts about it. It's been long over. You hate Dunn. Yes, we know this. Pick yourself up and move on.

You simply don't have facts on your side here. That's nothing new, but it sure does get old as does your trend of personally attacking anyone who won't allow you to consistently post mistruths.

Excuse me? When has the damage of strikeouts ever been addressed? It is well accepted that when you don't put the ball in play and make an out, it is a crippling out. You don't even force the defense to execute a play. Is this up for debate? Again, you maintain your stunningly thin assertions about what a good hitter actually is and make a blind statement about strikeouts with no evidence whatsoever to back up your rantings. And I don't hate Dunn. He was my favorite player when he came up. Since then, I've seen his all-around game deteriorate and worse, his not being the best athlete he can be. I wish he'd do his job better, that's all. And on the second bolded item, I don't understand...pick my self up? From what, where...ohhh, another attempt to take a jab at me. Well, I'll take the high road...

TeamBoone
08-27-2006, 10:38 PM
Who's Alan Cutler?

Newman4
08-27-2006, 11:23 PM
My lineup:

1. Freel CF
2. Phillips 2B
3. Hat 1B
4. EE 3B
5. Dunn LF
6. Griffey RF
7. Ross C
8. RA SS

SteelSD
08-27-2006, 11:44 PM
Excuse me? When has the damage of strikeouts ever been addressed?

Do you have the ability to use the search function? If so, please do so and you'll find a plethora of conversations about the negligible effect of strikeouts.


It is well accepted that when you don't put the ball in play and make an out, it is a crippling out. You don't even force the defense to execute a play. Is this up for debate? Again, you maintain your stunningly thin assertions about what a good hitter actually is and make a blind statement about strikeouts with no evidence whatsoever to back up your rantings.

If you want evidence, then use the search function and read away. But as many times as it's been covered, I'll be darned if you can't be responsible for finding the evidence you're looking for.


And I don't hate Dunn. He was my favorite player when he came up. Since then, I've seen his all-around game deteriorate and worse, his not being the best athlete he can be. I wish he'd do his job better, that's all. And on the second bolded item, I don't understand...pick my self up? From what, where...ohhh, another attempt to take a jab at me. Well, I'll take the high road...

Right. You really like Dunn. Here are some examples:

Wheelhouse 4/16/06: I agree with Marty. Dunn is a terrible situational hitter, a terrible fielder, and a terrible baserunner. He has a nice OPS though which makes him untouchable to certain posters...:rolleyes:

Wheelhouse 4/16/06: Look-- I guarantee that as poor a fielder and as one dimensional a hitter Dunn is, he will not last long on a Krivsky/Narron team.

Wheelhouse 4/16/06: I maintain that the Reds will not keep a player whose game is as imbalanced as Dunn's.

Wheelhouse 4/17/06: You can throw out as many decimals and numbers and Billy Beanisms you want, but I've watched Dunn play alot, and that's my opinion, your new-jack stats notwithstanding.

There were another oh...26 or 27 pages in that thread after you slinked away after your theories were summarily dismissed. Oh, and a number of pages on that thread dealt with Dunn's strikeouts. But, apparently, you didn't pay attention after you stopped posting.

Wheelhouse 5/09/06: I agree. But watch it, in the game the SABR guys watch (it's called "Notmakingouts", and they're pushing to make it the national pastime) he's their baby. Like Caesar's wife, Dunn is beyond reproach.

Yeah. Nice job "taking the high road" with your initial entry into a thread.

Wheelhouse 5/13/06: To satisfy all I won't talk about Avg. RISP, though it is the stat I look at. Let's look at his OBP this year with runners in scoring position Bases empty: .422 and with RISP:.333 -- that's almost a ninety point difference, about twice the difference between his batting avg. and avg. with RISP! This a guy who has a problem when men are on base.

A little early to conclude anything about RISP hitting, but hey you got your chance to bash so you might as well take it.


Wheelhouse 5/14/06: Doesn't that make you doubt the validity of the "new-jack" Runs Created stat, when Dunn is clearly flailing? Do you feel good when the guy is at bat? Not me. I think these flavor-of-the-month stats need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Yes, you hate stats you don't understand.

Wheelhouse 5/14/06: Yeah, and if you do that he becomes a huge whiff artist with few walks, 40 hrs in a band-box, terrible d, and horrible baserunning instincts.

So where again do we send your Adam Dunn Fan Club tee-shirt to?

Wheelhouse 5/14/06: First, this is an ongoing problem with Dunn, not a slump. Second, hitting with RISP is not a "type" of hitting, it's good hitting! Leaving ducks on the pond is bad hitting. Third, these stats have been run in regression tests by the people who invented them--which is like the divorcee validating the botox.

I can't find a more shining example of someone who doesn't have the first clue as to how statistical analysis actually works. Per the norm, your last post on that 10-page thread was page 4 after you were thoroughly trounced.

When Adam Dunn does well, you're there with backhanded praise:

Wheelhouse 6/15/06: I think we all hope yesterday's home run with runners on signals an end to Dunn's terrible problems at the plate with runners on base.

Yeah. That's a heck of a lot of support there.

Let's ignore the fact that Dunn has performed better with RISP from 2003-current. Let's forget that Dunn has been better in Close and Late situations versus his norm during those seasons. According to you, that couldn't really happen. Yet it has but you either don't appear to know it or have chosen to ignore it.

Dunn does something good and you're there to point out a deficiency. Dunn does something you think is bad and you're all over him. It's as if you're simply waiting for the opportunity to bash the guy and even when he does well, you're hedging by backhandedly bashing the guy. Normally, I'd suggest that it's time to go all-in, but it's absolutely clear you already have- and in the negative fashion. Don't think for a second that you have any credibility if you praise Dunn when he goes on his next hot streak. The bandwagon is closed for you.

guttle11
08-28-2006, 12:08 AM
My lineup:

1. Freel CF
2. Phillips 2B
3. Hat 1B
4. EE 3B
5. Dunn LF
6. Griffey RF
7. Ross C
8. RA SS

You're putting the most feared hitters, and the "game changers" at the back of the lineup where they'll get fewer AB's? In no case, ever, should Freel and Phillips both get more AB's than those behind them.

My lineup:

1. Freel-Speed, hustle
2. Dunn-plays best in that spot
3. Griffey-It ain't changing
4. Edwin-Seems to be the top RBI guy
5. Hatteberg-"professional AB", would drive in more runs here, makes few outs
6. Aurilia-Solid, scrappy vet
7. Phillips-Little speed before a bopper
8. Ross-Good pop, seems to have a good eye.
9. Pitcher-Well, bad

Highlifeman21
08-28-2006, 12:09 AM
I dunno--I like the feeling of a good at-bat in the second slot. You almost never get that from Dunn.

I say mix him in down at 7 or 8. Take some pressure and expectations off. We know he doesn't repond well to pressure base on his avg with RISP. He might pull out of this downturn in his year if he were in a more laid-back place in the lineup.


I bet it was a sad sad day in your life when Bob Boone got canned. You probably loved when he batted Dunn all over the lineup...

Dunn's best place in the lineup is most logically the #3 or #4 slots, but with the offensive blackhole that is Ken Griffey, Jr occupying the 3 spot, and Narron not liking to go back to back lefties in his 3, 4, or 5 spots, we will never see Dunn in the 3 hole in our lifetimes.

I've been a fan of Dunn in the 2 spot, since he actually has given us good ABs there, contrary to your less than popular belief. Moving Dunn below the 5 spot only hurts his chances to have a successful AB, since our lineup offers no protection for him if you bat him lower than 5.

Ken Griffey, Jr should bat 5th, Dunn 3rd. EE as clean up has been a good solution after the ASB.

SMcGavin
08-28-2006, 12:14 AM
Steel, what you posted about RISP correlations to runs scored was really interesting. RISP has always been the one time that I actually looked at batting average. Do you know if those correlations have been true in past seasons as well?

As for Dunn, I would hit him 3rd. Hatteberg is our best OBP guy, I like him 2nd. With Dunn 3rd he still gets the protection that seemed to help him so much earlier this year. I'd go:

RF Freel
1B Hatte
LF Dunn
3B Edwin
CF Griffey
C Ross
SS Aurilia
2B Phillips

SteelSD
08-28-2006, 01:00 AM
Steel, what you posted about RISP correlations to runs scored was really interesting. RISP has always been the one time that I actually looked at batting average. Do you know if those correlations have been true in past seasons as well?

I'll have to check on that. We do know that SLG has consistently been the primary RBI driver amongst OPS component stats.


As for Dunn, I would hit him 3rd. Hatteberg is our best OBP guy, I like him 2nd. With Dunn 3rd he still gets the protection that seemed to help him so much earlier this year. I'd go:

RF Freel
1B Hatte
LF Dunn
3B Edwin
CF Griffey
C Ross
SS Aurilia
2B Phillips

Third wouldn't be a bad slot for Dunn. I'd prefer he hit in the two slot to maximize his PA, but a Hatteberg/Dunn two-three combination would certainly wear out pitchers. Griffey needs to be moved down. He needed to be moved down much earlier this season and the choice to keep him in the three hole has cost this team Runs. And I hate the fact that Aurilia is at the Shortstop position rather than being the platoon guy at 1B. But it is what it is- an attempt to maximize the offensive output of the 2006 Reds while fielding a pitching staff and defense that doesn't do a great job of not allowing Runs.

buckeyenut
08-28-2006, 05:55 AM
And I hate the fact that Aurilia is at the Shortstop position rather than being the platoon guy at 1B. But it is what it is- an attempt to maximize the offensive output of the 2006 Reds while fielding a pitching staff and defense that doesn't do a great job of not allowing Runs.

This is the part I am actually interested in regarding this thread, since the Dunn stuff has been rehashed 100 times.

What would you recommend doing with SS given the assumption that Phillips stays at 2B rest of this year and your options are Aurillia, Clayton and Castro?
Does the lift from Aurillia's offense, at least against against LHP, offset his defensive deficiencies compared to the other two? Who would you use at SS vs righties? vs lefties? I don't like Aurillia as my starting SS, but I've been of the mindset it is a better option than Clayton or Castro.

Sorry if this has been talked elsewhere. I'm on here every day and I've missed it if it has been talked.

UK Reds Fan
08-28-2006, 08:14 AM
Steel, what you posted about RISP correlations to runs scored was really interesting. RISP has always been the one time that I actually looked at batting average. Do you know if those correlations have been true in past seasons as well?

As for Dunn, I would hit him 3rd. Hatteberg is our best OBP guy, I like him 2nd. With Dunn 3rd he still gets the protection that seemed to help him so much earlier this year. I'd go:

RF Freel
1B Hatte
LF Dunn
3B Edwin
CF Griffey
C Ross
SS Aurilia
2B Phillips

Probably best lineup since Dunn is really not effected by LHP vs. RHP. Your balance is still there from lefty vs. righty.