View Full Version : Career Years ?

08-28-2006, 11:13 AM
There are a number of Reds who are currently enjoying great years; Hatteburg, Ross, Philips, EE come to mind first but their are prob others.

Which one(s) of the current Reds do you think are likely to repeat that sucess in subsequent years?

Which one(s) do you think are flash in the pans?

Why do you feal this way? Do you have back up/reasoning for your "prediction" or is it just a gut feal (either is fine by me, just currious) ?

08-28-2006, 11:23 AM
I think Phillips and EE are up and coming players who will build off of this year. I like Hatteberg a lot, but he's already started to cool down as of late, and I definitely don't see him hitting .300 next year. I think he'll be around .280 or so with a good OBP, but I can't see him repeating this year. David Ross, I'm not sure about. Either the guy's ready to break out, or he's a complete flash in the pan. I'd like to believe that he's ready to step up and be a big time player, but then again, if he is our full time starter next year and pitcher's make the adjustments that are inevitable, it'll be interesting to see how he handles it.

08-28-2006, 11:26 AM
I can't see Hatteberg playing like this next year. He is hitting WAY over his career norms.

I think EdE will stay right around this. I'm sure others will make adjustments on him, and he will do the same (which has already happened a lot this year).

Ross might be a bit over his head right now, but I'll take a slight drop off from him next year anyway. Ross has some major holes in his swing (like anything not middle in) or anything slower than 85 mph.

Phillips I think will stay right where he is now. He started off hot, then kind of leveled off and has hovered around .290 area. If anything, I hope he gets a bit better by learning more patience and waiting for HIS pitch.

08-28-2006, 11:31 AM
Hatteberg will very likely never be this good again. Late for a career year, but a career year nonetheless.

Both Phillips and EE are young enough that you have to imagine they'll be able to repeat this success, if not improve on it.

Dave Ross, there's no way he repeats this OPS over 300+ AB. Seriously, the guy has been hitting a homer every 10.1 ABs. David Ortiz has hit one every 10.3 ABs and he leads the majors. Perhaps he has a half dozen seasons of being an above average platooned catcher. I doubt he ever maintains these rates over a decent.

Harang is having his best year, but that's largely attributible to simple improvement, and there's every reason to believe he'll be this good for a number of year.

08-28-2006, 11:32 AM
David Ross = Chris Bando - Watch Out

Always Red
08-28-2006, 11:58 AM
David Ross = Chris Bando - Watch Out
agree; Ross may never do this again. I can't think of any catchers who have improved so dramatically after the age of 29 (David will be 30 next spring). I hope that he can reproduce this, but I wouldn't count on it.

Hatte is having a career year, and good for him (and us). He's been productive, but I'd like a better OPS'er at 1B. But that's just me. I really like what he and Aurilia have done as a platoon, however.

Phillips and Eddie are two guys that I expect to step up and be even better next year than they are right now. I think this year of experience and extensive playing (first extended in the bigs for both), and pennant race will only make them both into better ballplayers in the future.

08-28-2006, 11:58 AM
Most likely to repeat
EE - slightly under his 90% PECOTA
BP - slighty over his 90% PECOTA

Hatty and Ross are way over their 90% PECOTA.

Caveat for Ross is often catchers develop hitting skills an power later, however, I still wouldn't expect a repeat of 2006.

Hatty will be dead weight next year when he reverts to career norms.

08-28-2006, 01:00 PM
Hatte is having a career year, and good for him (and us). He's been productive, but I'd like a better OPS'er at 1B. But that's just me. I really like what he and Aurilia have done as a platoon, however.

Hatteberg is 12th among qualified 1B in OPS. Not stellar, but good luck finding a more productive FA signing at his price. This is without a doubt the absolute best performance we could've hoped for from him. I'd love a 1.000 OPS guy at 1B too, but give finite resources and a (supposed) slugging CF, Scott fits the bill just fine. I imagine Votto will be up at some point next year and will be eased in to the position. The speed of that change will be based largely on how much Hatty regresses.

08-28-2006, 01:02 PM
Hatteberg is 12th among qualified 1B in OPS. Not stellar, but good luck finding a more productive FA signing at his price. This is without a doubt the absolute best performance we could've hoped for from him.and I sure hope they aren't expecting anything near that next year. Although if he repeats his September performance from last year, 2006 won't turn out to be a career year.

08-28-2006, 02:34 PM
EE and BP: Should at the least stay the same and, likely, improve. They are young, have a lot of potential and aren't playing "over their numbers" so to speak.

Hatte: Fantastic year. Doubt he does it again at his age. I don't think he'll be dead weight, but platooned with RA he could continue to contribute.

Harrang: This year I think he progressed to "the next level" (whatever that means) . Can he progress at the same rate next year? That would be fantastic. He's young, tallented and a "fighter". I know "a fighter" is subjective and poo-poo'd by some but I think that factors into his improvement potential.

Ross: To me, the big question mark. I like the kid, but I hope the Reds don't do something stupid like offer him a huge contract. He's never played this well before so the safe bet is that he woln't do it again. However, maybe this orginization, a "change of scenery", Chris Chambliss and the pollen count have all combined to mean he woln't do as well next year, but woln't completly drop off the earth. I'd like to see him back next year but with "the LaRue" problem the catching situation will be a sticky one to figure out in 2007.

08-28-2006, 02:44 PM
I think Ross will continue to hit homeruns, but I dont know if he will be able to hit for average like he has done so far this year.

Red Heeler
08-28-2006, 02:48 PM
EE is probably due for a sophomore slump next year, but I expect him to have a fine career.

2006 David Ross = 2005 model Javier Valentin. Hope Kriv sells high over the winter.

Harang is simply continuing the upward progression he has shown since he has been in Cincinnati. I expect him to be solid in future years as well.

Brandon Phillips reminds me so much of Pokey Reese that he scares the bejeebers out of me. Every time I try to get excited about having him as the everyday SS, visions of the post-1999 Pokey spring into my head.

08-28-2006, 05:37 PM
David Ross = Chris Bando - Watch Out

Yikes! 12 HR in 220 AB at the age of 28 - then 9 HR for the rest of his career.

I hope Ross isn't Bando Part Deux but thanks for the scary thought.

08-28-2006, 05:44 PM
I think EE, and BP will continue to do what they are doing with EE having the most potential. I love what Scott is doing but I see him having maybe 1 more year that he can bat above .300 but no more than that. I say Ross keeps his HR potential but he is a .270 hitter, not .300

It's obvious to me that EE has the most potential out of those players. He seems to be progressing as each month goes along and he lays off a lot more pitches this year and he can do what not many else can on this team...... Hit the ball to opposite field and all over (not a pull hitter such as Griff, Dunn, Ross, etc). He is already is one of the better young fastball hitters in the league and he is beginning to look better on the breaking pitch too.

08-28-2006, 06:34 PM
Ross + Aurillia will probably not be quite as good next year.

Hatteberg will definitely come back to earth.

I expect a slight decline in Phillips, just because he played so well for the first half of the year.

I expect improvements from Maj and Bray :)

08-28-2006, 06:58 PM
Edwin I think will become pretty solid in the future, as well as Brandon Phillips. David Ross? Can you say fluke? He's a very integral part of this team this year obviously, but there's no way he's going to do this again.

08-28-2006, 07:15 PM
EE isn't having a career year. He's just getting started. My opinion is that this will be remembered as one of his early below average seasons.

I think Phillips will play like this again, but may have a drop next year and bounce back the year after.

Hatte has peaked.

Ross? who knows?

08-28-2006, 07:24 PM
Just a thought (without looking up anything), maybe Hatte is doing good because of GAB? Seems like i've seen a few of his HRs barely go out in right, which would be an out in some stadiums