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NDIrish9
08-28-2006, 11:16 PM
6.0 Innings, 2 H, 8 K, 0ER

In attendance: Wayne

goreds2
08-28-2006, 11:18 PM
6.0 Innings, 2 H, 8 K, 0ER

In attendance: Wayne

As always.......:pray:

TeamBoone
08-28-2006, 11:22 PM
I hope he sticks to his gun and does NOT bring him up.

Unassisted
08-28-2006, 11:22 PM
Hope you're not holding your breath waiting for this to happen. You could get serious brain damage from holding it for 13 months. ;)

jesusfan
08-28-2006, 11:23 PM
I would love to see Homer make those last 4 starts by the "5th" starter...

indy_dave00
08-28-2006, 11:42 PM
In 12 AA starts covering 68 innings Homer allowed 8 earned runs 1.05 era. In 68 innings allowed only 46 hits , 24 walks and 77 strikeouts. If he won tonight he'd be 6-0 in AA , not sure what else he'd need to do to impress.

goodwilly98
08-28-2006, 11:50 PM
In 12 AA starts covering 68 innings Homer allowed 8 earned runs 1.05 era. In 68 innings allowed only 46 hits , 24 walks and 77 strikeouts. If he won tonight he'd be 6-0 in AA , not sure what else he'd need to do to impress.

A promotion to AAA with the same numbers put up there :D

nmculbreth
08-28-2006, 11:58 PM
In 12 AA starts covering 68 innings Homer allowed 8 earned runs 1.05 era. In 68 innings allowed only 46 hits , 24 walks and 77 strikeouts. If he won tonight he'd be 6-0 in AA , not sure what else he'd need to do to impress.

Refine his curve and change.

keeganbrick
08-29-2006, 12:07 AM
A promotion to AAA with the same numbers put up there :D
AAA means nothing these days.

lo ryder
08-29-2006, 12:10 AM
With this fine offensive display on the left coast, why subject him to this?

Surely couldnt help Homers confidence. Lets look ahead for a change.

goreds2
08-29-2006, 12:13 AM
&&&&&& Won't you come home Homer Bailey, won't you come home.....&&&&&

cincyinco
08-29-2006, 07:29 AM
As much as I have been a supporter of keeping Homer down all year - I'm beginning to wonder if he's just the kind of jolt this team needs. Remember Krod coming up for the Angels? When rosters expand, I'm wondering if it wouldnt' be good to bring him up and give him a cup of coffee. In limited work of course.

cincinnati chili
08-29-2006, 07:45 AM
I wonder if somebody could present data on the first 5 major league starts of pitchers who dominated double A, then skipped Triple-A. It may not be pretty.

I know it's trendy these days to say that Triple-A is inferior to Double-A. I don't buy it. While there might be more "high ceiling" guys in Double-A, the level of play is noticeably better at Triple-A. Relevant to Bailey, there are more guys at Triple-A who can punish a pitcher's mistakes.

That being said, Bailey might be ready. The Reds just need to proceed with caution, which it's clear to me that Krivsky has done.

redsmetz
08-29-2006, 07:57 AM
A promotion to AAA with the same numbers put up there :D

Amen.

Aronchis
08-29-2006, 09:05 AM
Triple A is Jerry Narron's wet dream. Where all players are scrappy. Jerry picked the wrong level to manage.

Oh yeah, I think AAA would be a interesting challenge for Homer, but considering the innings he has thrown, make it next year when he is 21(or close to it).

Always Red
08-29-2006, 10:15 AM
Here's my plan for Homer:

1. let him finish the year at Chattanooga, and help them with their playoffs.
2. shut down for the year after that.
3. start next year in AAA Louisville.
4. First one of the 5 starting pitchers goes on the DL or is getting shelled, bring Homer up to the Reds, hopefully to stay.

In other words, let's build a starting 5 next year that does NOT include Homer, and if we need him and he comes through, then it's a bonus.

just my opinion.

BoCcc2832
08-29-2006, 10:47 AM
News flash for everyone that thinks Homer is going to be called up because Krivsky was there: he's been there since Friday and will continue to be there today and tomorrow...it wasn't just b/c of Homer

goreds2
08-29-2006, 11:00 AM
Wayne does visit all the Minor League teams on a regular basis.

Jr's Boy
08-29-2006, 11:29 AM
Geez,the title of this thread is so misleading.I got fired up when I logged on to RZ,should have known ''if it sounds too good to be true......

CaiGuy
08-29-2006, 11:34 AM
Here's my plan for Homer:

1. let him finish the year at Chattanooga, and help them with their playoffs.
2. shut down for the year after that.
3. start next year in AAA Louisville.
4. First one of the 5 starting pitchers goes on the DL or is getting shelled, bring Homer up to the Reds, hopefully to stay.

In other words, let's build a starting 5 next year that does NOT include Homer, and if we need him and he comes through, then it's a bonus.

just my opinion.
That's a great idea. That would give him some AAA time, and wouldn't be putting to much trust in a minor league pitcher. Bailey isn't going to lead us to the playoffs this year folks, even if the mistake of calling him up is made. Even next year is a push.

mbgrayson
08-29-2006, 11:36 AM
I think the main management worry on calling up Homer is number of innings pitched. Too many MLB 19 or 20 year old call ups throw too many innings and develop arm trouble.

The Mariners have been very careful with King Felix. Felix Hernandez turned 20 in April. He leads the Mariners in innings pitched this year with 160. He, like Homer, has a 97-98 mph fastball. Felix has better secondary pitches than Homer. He has struggled some this year, going 11-12 with a 4.54 ERA.

Felix was called up to Seattle in August last year at age 19. He was 4-4, had a 2.67 ERA in 84 MLB innings, struck out 77 and walked 23. Ten of his twelve late season starts were 'quality starts'. Overall, in 2005 at age 19, Felix threw 172 innings. He pitched 88 of those innings in AAA Tacoma.

When Felix was 18, there was fan discussion of calling him up from AA. See this link. (http://www.all-baseball.com/nextyear/archives/014870.html) The Ms resisted, and shut him down after he got to 149 innings in 2004.

Seattle has gradually increased Felix's innings pitched from 149, to 172, and will allow him to get near 200 this year. However, Felix Hernandez is only one month older than Homer Bailey!

Boston Red
08-29-2006, 12:17 PM
See Hamels, Cole for the fool's gold that AA numbers can be when a pitcher gets his first dose of Major League hitters.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 01:37 PM
See Hamels, Cole for the fool's gold that AA numbers can be when a pitcher gets his first dose of Major League hitters.

Fewer hits than IP, 103 strikeouts in 88 innings....hardly fools gold.

TeamBoone
08-29-2006, 02:07 PM
In 12 AA starts covering 68 innings Homer allowed 8 earned runs 1.05 era. In 68 innings allowed only 46 hits , 24 walks and 77 strikeouts. If he won tonight he'd be 6-0 in AA , not sure what else he'd need to do to impress.

Not saying I'm not impressed, but AAA dominance needs to happen.

pedro
08-29-2006, 02:09 PM
Not saying I'm not impressed, but AAA dominance needs to happen.


At this point I'm not sure. I was dead set against calling him up earlier but at this point I'm not sure it's not worth a shot.

TeamBoone
08-29-2006, 02:10 PM
Hasn't it been repeated over and over by the "brass" that he needs to develop (and conquer) another pitch?

I would hate to see his development impeded by not doing that before he is promoted to the bigs.

Jefferson24
08-29-2006, 02:14 PM
If your going to pitch him it needs to be at the major league level. If you going to shut him down because of innings pitched then that's fine too. I just don't think he needs to keep proving himself over and over again at AA. Pitch him in Cincinnati or rest him.

pedro
08-29-2006, 02:57 PM
Hasn't it been repeated over and over by the "brass" that he needs to develop (and conquer) another pitch?

I would hate to see his development impeded by not doing that before he is promoted to the bigs.


True, but I think the fact that he has done so well at AA coupled with the Reds being so in need and still in the race change things a bit. The Reds haven't been this close in 7 year. Who knows when it will happen again.

danwl
08-29-2006, 03:20 PM
Seattle has gradually increased Felix's innings pitched from 149, to 172, and will allow him to get near 200 this year. However, Felix Hernandez is only one month older than Homer Bailey!

This is true, but a little misleading since King Felix is the most heralded young pitching prospect in the history of history itself. OK, a huge overstatement, but the point being that he is wunderkind, not the game plan for developing pitchers.

I see this reflected in the rest of your post, so I am pretty sure we agree here.

OldXOhio
08-29-2006, 03:31 PM
not sure what else he'd need to do to impress.

At this point in his career, it's not about what Bailey can do for the Reds...it's more about what the Reds can do for Bailey in giving him the best chance to succeed. If that's accomplished by throwing him into the fire of a major league playoff chase, then so be it. Personally, I don't think that's the best course of action for his development.

Boston Red
08-29-2006, 04:41 PM
Fewer hits than IP, 103 strikeouts in 88 innings....hardly fools gold.

Yeah, Hamels is settling in nicely and becoming the solid pitcher his minor league stats indicated that he would. However, after his first 11 starts he was 2-5 with a 5.98 ERA. And that includes his mastery of the Reds in his MLB debut.

Boston Red
08-29-2006, 04:45 PM
BTW, here are Hamels' ridiculous minor league stats before he came up to the bigs and got swatted around (fairly similar to what Homer is doing): http://minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Cole%20Hamels&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=430935

jimbo
08-29-2006, 05:10 PM
The Reds haven't been this close in 7 year. Who knows when it will happen again.

This is exactly the mentality that I believe Krivsky and Castellini is trying to change with the organization. Developing a strong minor league system is the key to long-term consistancy with the Reds and bringing up your top pitching prospect before he is truly ready goes against that philosophy.

RedsManRick
08-29-2006, 05:17 PM
While I've been strongly in the "don't bring him up" camp to date, I'm seriously beginning to think that if he's handled right, a September coming out of the Cincy pen could be a great thing.

1.) Our pen is in desperate need of a guy who can get a strikeout.
2.) His inning count would be seriously limited such that we don't really risk burnout.
3.) A little ego check could do him good after dominating AA with pretty much an awesome fastball and not much else.
4.) If he's gonna be on the team next year anyways, I'm not concered about the arb implication. You don't want to "waste" a guy's arb time, but who knows when the next playoff run will be.

Bring him up. Make him a high leverage middle reliever. Give him 10 appearances before the playoffs and hope he gets the chance to make a few more in October. The only thing you have to be sure of is that regardless of how well he pitches, he IS a starter (long term) until he proves he can't be. I don't want to see him Papelbonned, even if I'd love to get that for a month.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 05:20 PM
OK, people seriously need to read this. Homer Bailey throws a curveball, and he throws it often enough!

Those who continue to say he gets by with just a fastball dont have the slightest clue of whats going on.

RedsManRick
08-29-2006, 05:26 PM
OK, people seriously need to read this. Homer Bailey throws a curveball, and he throws it often enough!

Those who continue to say he gets by with just a fastball dont have the slightest clue of whats going on.

Once I regain my sight, can you show me where you're getting that insight from Doug. I'm sure there's a whole bunch of misinformation floating around and I'm as bad as the next person about stating "fact" without proper citation. But, based on many things I've read, and his performance in the futures game, Homer seems to be overly reliant on his fastball.

Not disagreeing with you, just trying to see what those of us who are making the incorrect claim have missed.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 05:32 PM
I have listened to every game he has pitched since he was called up to Chattanooga, and for nearly every game I have charted his pitches as best as the announcers will tell you what he just threw.
The problem with a lot of people is they see/saw the futures game and think thats what he does every night. That is not how he pitches. Yeah, he throws a lot of fastballs. So does nearly every pitcher who throws 93+. You then mix in your other pitches, something that Homer does.
His change up still needs quite a bit of work, but his curveball is coming around like scouts thought it would. He is locating it quite a bit more than he has in the past.

Chip R
08-29-2006, 05:35 PM
While I've been strongly in the "don't bring him up" camp to date, I'm seriously beginning to think that if he's handled right, a September coming out of the Cincy pen could be a great thing.


I feel sort of the same way. But I just think the temptation and pressure to put him in the rotation will be too great. I mean, how can you justify having Homer in the bullpen when you have Michalak in the 5th spot?

pedro
08-29-2006, 05:37 PM
I think putting him in the pen is a bad idea. I'm afraid changing roles this late in season might be more dangerous to his health than letting him start.

RANDY IN INDY
08-29-2006, 05:41 PM
At this point, I say leave him down.

RedsManRick
08-29-2006, 05:42 PM
I think putting him in the pen is a bad idea. I'm afraid changing roles this late in season might be more dangerous to his health than letting him start.

FWIW, I think the Tigers will be bringing Andrew Miller out of the pen the rest of the way.

I'd be interested to see what TC has to say about the effect of changing roles on a pitcher, be it physically, mentally, or both.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 05:46 PM
Miller had it in his contract to get the call up, and well he just isnt good enough to join the rotation in Detroit yet.

jimbo
08-29-2006, 06:04 PM
OK, people seriously need to read this. Homer Bailey throws a curveball, and he throws it often enough!

Those who continue to say he gets by with just a fastball dont have the slightest clue of whats going on.

From every comment I've read coming from coaches, scouts, managers, management, etc. say just the opposite. I read where a scout mentioned just a month ago that he only threw something like 14 breaking pitches in one of his recent starts.

mth123
08-29-2006, 09:52 PM
I wonder if somebody could present data on the first 5 major league starts of pitchers who dominated double A, then skipped Triple-A. It may not be pretty.

I know it's trendy these days to say that Triple-A is inferior to Double-A. I don't buy it. While there might be more "high ceiling" guys in Double-A, the level of play is noticeably better at Triple-A. Relevant to Bailey, there are more guys at Triple-A who can punish a pitcher's mistakes.

That being said, Bailey might be ready. The Reds just need to proceed with caution, which it's clear to me that Krivsky has done.


I think this post is exactly correct concerning the difference between AAA and AA. There are a lot of has beens in AAA but even more never will be's in AA. Success in AAA does prove something. Especially when a guy is testing his complimentary pitches.

Razor Shines
08-29-2006, 10:06 PM
OK, people seriously need to read this. Homer Bailey throws a curveball, and he throws it often enough!

Those who continue to say he gets by with just a fastball dont have the slightest clue of whats going on.
This is what Team Clark said about Homer this month. Are you saying that his curve ball has gotten markedly better since then? That would be shocking considering the contrast in your opinion and his.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50077&highlight=In+case+you+were+wondering

ol'Sparky
08-29-2006, 10:08 PM
always impressed w/ the amount of discussion about Homer.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 10:30 PM
This is what Team Clark said about Homer this month. Are you saying that his curve ball has gotten markedly better since then? That would be shocking considering the contrast in your opinion and his.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50077&highlight=In+case+you+were+wondering

Like TC said, the game they were at, was one of Homers worst games of the season in Chattanooga. The very next outing, Homer struck out 4 people looking on his curve ball, and had quite a few more for strikes. I dont doubt what TC's buddy saw when he was there, he was just there on a very bad day control wise for Homer. Everyone has days where they cant locate pitches.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 10:35 PM
From every comment I've read coming from coaches, scouts, managers, management, etc. say just the opposite. I read where a scout mentioned just a month ago that he only threw something like 14 breaking pitches in one of his recent starts.

Well he only throws 1 breaking pitch, a curve ball. So lets say he threw 14 curve balls and 10 change ups. Thats 24 off speed pitches out of probably 80 that he threw. That means he threw 56 fastballs and 24 offspeed pitches. Thats 70% FB and 30% off speed. I dont know what ratio other guys who throw 94+ have, but I bet its quite similar to that.

Matt700wlw
08-29-2006, 10:37 PM
From the Chattanoogan:


Homer Bailey (7-0/1.06) put on another dazzling performance Monday night. He pitched six innings giving up two hits, no runs, walked none, and struck out eight batters. The Mudcats got their first hit in the fourth inning, a single up the middle by Rex Rundgren.

Cincinnati general manager, Wayne Krivsky, who sat behind home plate, had to be impressed as the Reds’ top prospect mixed his pitches, maintained excellent control, and threw consistently in the mid-nineties. He struck out the last batter he faced in the game with a 97 mph fastball.

TeamBoone
08-30-2006, 02:31 AM
OK, people seriously need to read this. Homer Bailey throws a curveball, and he throws it often enough!

Those who continue to say he gets by with just a fastball dont have the slightest clue of whats going on.

Really! Then why is it KRIVSKY who says he needs to develop another pitch?

I guess he doesn't have the slightest clue of what's going on.....

dougdirt
08-30-2006, 03:34 AM
TB, 1, where did Krivsky say this and when did he say it? 2, Homer does need to develop another pitch. Its called a change up. He can get by with a FB and curve, but wont be the pitcher he can be until he gets that change up down as a good pitch.

cincyinco
08-30-2006, 05:52 AM
Homer has a dominant fastball, but I've read every single gamethread that Dougdirt has put up in the farm forum, and I can tell its more than fastballs. I've read several accounts also that his change up has made great strides this year, although it still needs a fair amount of work.

This is what they mean when they say Homer needs to develope another pitch. Its the general consensus that to be a successful and dominant starter in the majors, you need 3 average or above pitches. Homer has 2 right now. The fastball is plus plus, the Curve is plus with potential to be plus, and the changeup is lagging behind - but has potential to be average.

I really have to agree with dougdirt here, those who say he's getting by on his fastball alone are just not seeing the big picture. Sure if his secondary stuff isn't working as well, he may rely on the fastball more - thats how pitchers adjust. But from every single thread I've read in the farm forum, and every scouting report I've read on Bailey - all say he's made tremendous progress with his secondary pitches and command. And I'd say the numbers certainly reflect that.

RANDY IN INDY
08-30-2006, 08:48 AM
Major League Hitters>AA Hitters. He will need to use his curveball and offspeed pitches more in the Majors. I have also heard that Bailey's fastball, while very fast, doesn't have the greatest amount of movement, which means the breaking stuff and changeup will be even more important.

I'd love nothing more than to see Bailey come up and dominate in the last month, but just being realistic, I hope they don't rush him up this season.

Redus
08-30-2006, 01:17 PM
Well if theyre gonna bring him up its getting a little late. Keep trotting out the Michalaks and the Ryan Franklins Krivsky geeeez ....

Chip R
08-30-2006, 02:56 PM
From today's Enquirer

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060830/SPT04/608300383/1071


The Reds also could slide prospect Homer Bailey into that spot. Krivsky saw Bailey throw for the first time since spring training Monday at Double-A Chattanooga.

"He threw all three pitches," Krivsky said. "He changed speeds. He had his delivery under control."

The numbers were typical Bailey: six innings of two-hit shutout ball, no walks, eight strikeouts.

He's 7-0 with a 1.06 ERA in 12 starts for Chattanooga.

Bailey, a 20-year-old right-hander, is still under consideration for a September call-up. Krivsky wouldn't say Tuesday if that will happen.

"We haven't made that decision," he said.

Bailey doesn't have to be up by Sept. 1 to be added to the playoff roster. Because the Reds have pitchers on the disabled list, they can add any pitcher in the organization to the playoff roster. They didn't have any position players on the DL, so Denorfia had to be up before Friday to be eligible.

red-in-la
08-30-2006, 03:12 PM
You bring up Homer now and he pitches well over 200 innings......and if the Reds make the playoffs, he would pitch even more. Don't do it. Learn from the past.

Homer might end up the next Gary Nolan......don't blow his arm out for 6 weeks of the season.

This team isn't going to win the WS anyway.....just wait 'till next year.

durl
08-30-2006, 03:23 PM
I believe the possible worst thing we can do as Reds fans is expect the kid to be an ace. That's a lot of pressure to put on a kid. I will admit that some players thrive on such a challenge, but in this case, I say better safe than sorry. Plus, how many young pitching phenoms have had years of success at the top level?

Anyway, I agree with those that say we need to see what he can do in AAA, then bring him up in September to pitch a couple of games.

RadfordVA
08-30-2006, 03:32 PM
You bring up Homer now and he pitches well over 200 innings......and if the Reds make the playoffs, he would pitch even more. Don't do it. Learn from the past.

Homer might end up the next Gary Nolan......don't blow his arm out for 6 weeks of the season.

This team isn't going to win the WS anyway.....just wait 'till next year.

Homer has only pitched 138 innings according to this article on the official site so I dont know how he would get 200 innings in before the year ends. As the fifth starter he would only get about 4 or 5 starts probably which even if he averaged 7 innings per would put him at 173. Which would still be around the range of what krivsky wants from him. If you read the quotes from Krivsky it sure sounds like he is thinking about bringing him up for Tues. start. He leaves it up in the air unlike previous qoutes in the season.
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060829&content_id=1635452&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

TeamBoone
08-30-2006, 06:30 PM
Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Hold your horses on Homer
Paul Daugherty / Cincinnati Enquirer

There is a very good chance David "Homer" Bailey, who's working in Chattanooga, Tenn., has no idea we are obsessing over him up here. Yet we are, and every time he wins another start, throws another 98 mph fastball past another Double-A hitter for yet another strikeout, the obsession grows.

The kid just turned 20. Can we let him learn how to pitch before we ask him to save the Reds' season?

No, we cannot. Each day, there is some new Homer urging from someone who thinks Cincinnati's year will implode without a fifth starting pitcher.

Name the No. 5 guy on the Padres, Rockies, Giants, Astros and Braves and win fabulous prizes.

Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky has been clear about his intentions for Bailey. They involve having him learn his curveball and changeup so he can come at major-league hitters with something more than just pure flame. The kid hasn't passed physics, yet we'd like him to build a rocket.

And by the way, just because a pitcher throws 98 mph once or twice a game doesn't mean he has a 98-mph fastball.

"He's right on schedule," Krivsky said Tuesday. "The right place for him is where he is right now."

And do you really want a guy named Homer pitching in a pennant race at Great American Small Park? What's his other nickname - Tater?

Yet we persist. He can start until Brandon Claussen rejoins the rotation. He'll come up in September anyway - why not now? How 'bout one start? Just one start wouldn't hurt. Can he make one start, Wayne? Pretty please?

It's starting to sound like a Dr. Seuss book. Green Eggs and Homer.

Would you, could you for Joe Mays? Would you, could you in four days?

Sam I Am Krivsky: I would not start him on the road. I would not start him if it snowed.

There's another good reason not to bring up Bailey:

It doesn't work.

Name one pitcher not named Doc Gooden in the last 30 years who made his major-league debut at age 19 or 20 and had a career worth savoring. I can name a few who tried and failed:

David Clyde debuted in 1973 at age 18 with the Texas Rangers. He was 4-8 that year, 18-33 for his career. Clyde was set aside by the age of 24.

Todd Van Poppel was 19 in '91, when he pitched for Oakland. Van Poppel toppled - he won 40 games in 11 years.

Steve Avery was 3-11 pitching for Atlanta at age 20. Oakland's Big Three of a few years back - Barry

Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson - made their first big-league starts at ages 22, 22 and 23 respectively.

In fact, 21 seems the earliest age any successful starting pitcher has made his debut. Josh Beckett started four games for the Florida Marlins at 21. Dontrelle Willis burst on the scene at the same age. A.J. Burnett was 22. And so on. Even Gooden had just one winning season after the age of 26.

Would you, could you, in the 'pen?

Sam I Am Krivsky: I do not like him in the 'pen. I do not want to say it again.

The only problem with how Bailey is being groomed is this: Recently, he has been throwing way too many fastballs. In the Futures Game July 9, Bailey threw heat exclusively, 20-plus pitches. His Chattanooga starts also have been fastball-fests.

If you'd like him to develop quickly, make Bailey throw curveballs and changeups. You already know about the other pitch.

Bring up former Reds great Mario Soto from the Dominican Republic. Make Bailey his pet. Reds insiders in March said Soto was such a good teacher, he could be a major-league pitching coach. Put him on Homer's changeup.

Other than that, leave the kid alone. The Reds' chances of making the postseason do not ride on the arm of a barely 20-year-old. His future rides on the team's decisions, though. Only fools rush in.

"My mind isn't on him being here" was how Krivsky put it Tuesday.

I do not like him as an '06 Red. Get that through your stubborn head.


http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...332/1071/SPT04



Reds have their reasons for not rushing up Bailey
By Marc Katz

Mack Jenkins evoked the names of David Clyde and Todd Van Poppel, then he brought up Ryan Wagner.

It was all designed to mean don't expect to see Homer Bailey hurried along to the big leagues. Bailey just turned 20 on May 3.

"It's not the result," said Jenkins, the Reds minor league pitching coordinator. "It's the process."

So while Bailey is throwing 97-mph fastballs and shutting down Class AA Southern League opponents, he still has to work on other pitches, his quickness in delivering the ball to the plate, covering first base and other sundry skills.

"It's not how quick you make it to the majors," Reds field coordinator and former farm director Tim Naehring said. "It's how long you stay."

David Clyde was drafted as an 18-year-old by Texas in 1973, the first player taken. By the time he was finished in the majors at the tender age of 24, he had compiled an 18-33 record and 4.63 ERA.

Van Poppel was also a first-round pick. He was in the majors with the A's in 1991, the year after he was drafted, and still a teenager. Van Poppel lasted a bit longer in the majors off and on through 2004 (he was with the Reds). But his overall record was just 40-52 with a 5.58 ERA. He's not going to the Hall of Fame.

Wagner was drafted in the first round by the Reds in 2003 out of the University of Houston and was considered nearly major-league ready.

He zoomed through the Reds' system, from Class AA Chattanooga (5 games) to Class AAA Louisville (4 games) to the Reds, where he was 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in 17 games.

Wagner's ERA bloated to 4.70 in 2004 and 6.11 last season. He is now struggling at Louisville.

"Wagner had success, a lot of success," Jenkins said. "Then, he became too predictable. When all the scouting reports came in (from other teams), they said, 'If you see a slider, don't swing.' "

His slider was always just off the plate, a sucker pitch for batters because they couldn't reach it. When they stopped swinging, Wagner had to come over the plate with another more hittable pitch.

The learning process is the same with position players, and it isn't all about hitting. It's about fielding, too.

Votto, for instance, used to be a catcher. He has been working on playing first base, and the Reds want to make sure he has it right before they promote him to the big club. Of late, the Reds have had fielding problems.

"Joey needs work holding runners, fielding bunts, turning double plays," Reds assistant farm director Grant Griesser said. "And it's a lot better learning defense when you're swinging the bat well."

Votto is swinging the bat well in Chattanooga, where he is in contention for a triple crown.

Numbers are mostly the focus. There is more to it. Bailey and Votto will eventually make it to the majors, and soon.

Just not right now.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/sport...106inside.html

Cedric
08-30-2006, 06:54 PM
Tim Naehring.

I hope Krivsky does the exact opposite of what Naehring wants.

dougdirt
08-30-2006, 07:00 PM
TB, of course he needs work on his pitches. He didnt however say he needed to develop another pitch.

mound_patrol
08-30-2006, 09:29 PM
The best pitch in baseball is a well located fastball. And at 96, 97 even better. I would have no problem with the Reds bringing him up as a fifth starter. Not because he will save this team, but because it pushes him in a whole new way. I would be opposed to him coming up to throw out of the bullpen. We are grooming him to be a starter so lets not mess with that in any way. But I'm all for giving him a shot, but if we don't then he needs to be shut down at 150 innings like they had originally planned.

red-in-la
08-30-2006, 11:23 PM
Homer has only pitched 138 innings according to this article on the official site so I dont know how he would get 200 innings in before the year ends. As the fifth starter he would only get about 4 or 5 starts probably which even if he averaged 7 innings per would put him at 173. Which would still be around the range of what krivsky wants from him. If you read the quotes from Krivsky it sure sounds like he is thinking about bringing him up for Tues. start. He leaves it up in the air unlike previous qoutes in the season.
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060829&content_id=1635452&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

I had seen an article that said he had pitched 173 innings......whatever it is, pitching into September or even October is too much for a 20 year old kid.

FoReel
08-30-2006, 11:25 PM
The best pitch in baseball is a well located fastball. And at 96, 97 even better. I would have no problem with the Reds bringing him up as a fifth starter. Not because he will save this team, but because it pushes him in a whole new way. I would be opposed to him coming up to throw out of the bullpen. We are grooming him to be a starter so lets not mess with that in any way. But I'm all for giving him a shot, but if we don't then he needs to be shut down at 150 innings like they had originally planned.
The best pitch might be the fastball, but with nothing to back it up and throw off the hitters, a little bit, then your going to get rocked.

Eric_Davis
08-30-2006, 11:48 PM
Why is this topic even on the board?

I thought it was a given that his pitch count was limited to 150 innings this year.

If I'm wrong about this, someone let me know.

TeamBoone
08-31-2006, 12:56 AM
I just looked it up. He's pitched 138.2 innings.

cincyinco
08-31-2006, 03:09 AM
Major League Hitters>AA Hitters. He will need to use his curveball and offspeed pitches more in the Majors. I have also heard that Bailey's fastball, while very fast, doesn't have the greatest amount of movement, which means the breaking stuff and changeup will be even more important.

I'd love nothing more than to see Bailey come up and dominate in the last month, but just being realistic, I hope they don't rush him up this season.

Thats what everyone here said when they promoted him to AA as well. He certainly has risen to that challenge and then some. What more do you want from the guy? He is Dominating. Everyone asked him to do that. Everyone is getting what they wished for.

And what reports are you guys reading? Everything I read about the guy says his fastball has plenty of late movement with sink, and that he's inducing a lot of grounders. 7 HR in roughly 140 innings certainly supports that.

Ltlabner
08-31-2006, 08:06 PM
Thats what everyone here said when they promoted him to AA as well. He certainly has risen to that challenge and then some. What more do you want from the guy? He is Dominating. Everyone asked him to do that. Everyone is getting what they wished for.

Show that he can get AAA batters out.

Once he shows he can do that it's time for the big leagues.

cincyinco
08-31-2006, 08:30 PM
Show that he can get AAA batters out.

Once he shows he can do that it's time for the big leagues.

Fair enough, but Homer has done what everyone has asked of him and more. He deserves a reward. I don't see how bringing him up to the big league club with a month to go - giving him side sessiosn with Ruhle - and letting him come out of the pen in select situtations for an inning or two at a time.. would be harmful to this team. It may be beneficial in several ways - from the contributation to the team, to the development of Bailey, and just good old fashion rewarding for performance(confidence booster).

Ltlabner
08-31-2006, 08:38 PM
It may be beneficial in several ways - .

Yes, and it can be detrimental to his development in several ways. Injury, gets rocked, pushes his arm too hard which doesn't show up till later, etc.

Do you want to take that chance for the best pitching prospect the Reds have had at least since the turn of the century, if not longer?

Do you want to take that risk when Homer will likely have zero impact on making the playoffs? The chances of him comming in and propelling us further are much smaller than the chance of something harmfull happening, IMO.

Do you want to take that risk if we get eliminated? Do you want to risk throwing away the best pitching prospect in years on a season that means nothing?

I guess I'd rather them take it slow and methodical with his development then rush him out there in a PR stunt or a panic attempt to help the team win.

mth123
09-01-2006, 05:58 AM
I agree that Homer has "earned" it. I prefer time in AAA in a perfect world, but that alone would not stop me from bringing him up. BUT....

He has thrown a 138 innings when the plan for the year said 135. Shut him down and call Homer a success for 2006. Let the hype and his value grow over the winter

redsmetz
09-01-2006, 09:35 AM
Well, let me be the first to say Homer Bailey has arrived.....

to THE REDS ZONE!

I noticed this morning that our newest member is the ID "Homer Bailey", just joined "the club" today. Welcome, Homer!

cumberlandreds
09-01-2006, 09:41 AM
Well, let me be the first to say Homer Bailey has arrived.....

to THE REDS ZONE!

I noticed this morning that our newest member is the ID "Homer Bailey", just joined "the club" today. Welcome, Homer!


Maybe he could tell if he thinks he's ready for the big leagues? :D

Big Daddy P
09-01-2006, 12:09 PM
Just because he's 20 doesn't mean he's not ready. If his stuff is that good, his arm is sound, and he's mentally ready, why not?

He's got to be a starter too. Don't screw with his starter's mentality. Just monitor his pitch counts and let him go.

Why the heck not? He might be the shot of pitching adrenaline the Reds need to get going again.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
09-01-2006, 12:12 PM
Yes, and it can be detrimental to his development in several ways. Injury, gets rocked, pushes his arm too hard which doesn't show up till later, etc.

Do you want to take that chance for the best pitching prospect the Reds have had at least since the turn of the century, if not longer?

Do you want to take that risk when Homer will likely have zero impact on making the playoffs? The chances of him comming in and propelling us further are much smaller than the chance of something harmfull happening, IMO.

Do you want to take that risk if we get eliminated? Do you want to risk throwing away the best pitching prospect in years on a season that means nothing?

I guess I'd rather them take it slow and methodical with his development then rush him out there in a PR stunt or a panic attempt to help the team win.
IMO this season already means something, what if you bring him up and it puts you over the top. It's only a bad idea if it doesn't work, it's only a good idea if it does, how does this differ from any other move that is made during a season?

Always Red
09-01-2006, 12:23 PM
Generally, I am a positive person, but in Homer's case, at this time of the year, I think you have to ask- what if he fails?

Look at Hamels of the Phils, who has been compared to Homer Bailey by a lot of folks here. Hamels pitched 5 very nice innings against the Reds in his debut in May, and then got hammered by the NL for 2 months straight after that (ERA over 6.00 for June and July). In August, he's been great. He needed some time to adjust and get his game together.

If Bailey comes up right now, we are putting him into a win only situation; if he fails, it's not just him that fails, ut our playoff hopes are dashed as well. He must win, now. There will be no time for him to pitch poorly and improve over time, or to adjust to the game on the major league level at all. And if he comes up and fails, what will that do to his confidence in the long run, since there is no time for him to recover this season, as Hamels has done?

I think that has to be part of the thinking into not using him right now. If they were going to bring him up, they should have done it early. Certainly he's got a great arm, and live stuff. Next year is soon enough- I'd start him out in AAA, and if he's still lights out after 4 starts there, he's up for good. One other thing I'd do is build a starting 5 pitching staff, for next year, with the thought that Bailey will not be on it. If he forces the situation, well, that's a good problem-you can never have enough good starting pitching!

Ltlabner
09-01-2006, 02:14 PM
IMO this season already means something, what if you bring him up and it puts you over the top. It's only a bad idea if it doesn't work, it's only a good idea if it does, how does this differ from any other move that is made during a season?

Because any other move durring the season didn't involve our best pitching prospect in years.

You are right, it's only a bad idea if it doesn't work. But if it "doesn't work" you run the risk of screwing up a big pitching prospect. For a team that is desperate for solid pitching.

The risk of something bad happening outweighs the chance of HB "putting us over the top" in the playoff race, IMO.

jimbo
09-01-2006, 02:25 PM
Because any other move durring the season didn't involve our best pitching prospect in years.

You are right, it's only a bad idea if it doesn't work. But if it "doesn't work" you run the risk of screwing up a big pitching prospect. For a team that is desperate for solid pitching.

The risk of something bad happening outweighs the chance of HB "putting us over the top" in the playoff race, IMO.

I couldn't agree with this post more. This organization has to develop strong pitching from within in order to be a consistant contender and accepting the risks involved with rushing the best pitching prospect to come up through the Reds minor league system in 20+ years before he is ready is a risk I don't want to see Krivsky take.

Chip R
09-01-2006, 02:34 PM
One other thing to remember for those who want to see Homer get the big callup is that he would have to work with the Reds pitching coaches. Now tell me that doesn't send a shiver up your spine.

Team Clark
09-01-2006, 02:44 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...332/1071/SPT04




http://www.daytondailynews.com/sport...106inside.html

I read this article and I almost vommited. Seriously.

TWO GYNORMOUS problems here....

Mack Jenkins does not need to be talking to ANYONE. :confused: He is the ABSOLUTE WORST Pitching Coach/Coordinator in ALL of Baseball. Hands down, no debate. Funny how I was just talking about Mack yesterday with a friend of mine in the White Sox org. He laughed and said "I hope they don't let him near Bailey, that kid will be F'd up". No Kidding.

The best thing he could possibly come up with in the article is a cliche. Get rid of this guy already!!!


Major problem TWO: Grant Griesser also does not need to be speaking to anyone! Especially about Baseball. If you have met Grant you know what I am saying. This BS about Votto needing to work on his Defense is a real hum dinger. First of all, Votto just did not start playing 1B 2 weeks ago. He's a former Catcher so I will bet my house that he knows the bunt coverages. As far as holding runners is concerned I would seriosuly doubt he is deficient in that category. All this from a guy who has ROUTINELY turned away minor league free agents at the A and AA level who are now tearing it up in AAA or playing in the big leagues. His standard excuses are "Well, we don't have that on our report" or "We're not looking to fill any spots". Moron. Like Ty Waller of the Padres always said "Send me someone good and I'll take a look, send me someone BETTER and I'll sign him"

I get so sick of reading crap like this from guys who have nearly been fired (Griesser) or will be "Naehring" or SHOULD be "Jenkins". :bang: I can not wait for this off season.

Team Clark
09-01-2006, 02:52 PM
FWIW, I think the Tigers will be bringing Andrew Miller out of the pen the rest of the way.

I'd be interested to see what TC has to say about the effect of changing roles on a pitcher, be it physically, mentally, or both.


It's hard to tell. You really have to judge that case by case. There is an adjustment. The LONGER you pitch the more you know how to make those types of adjustments. Simply because you know how your body and mechanics will respond. The White Sox and Cardinals have done a great job with their two young 'ens. McCarthy and Wainright.

Newman4
09-01-2006, 04:09 PM
Any word on who's starting Tuesday? The "blank" is like deafening silence. Off in the distance I hear whispers of "Homer.....Homer......Homer....."

goreds2
09-01-2006, 04:31 PM
Any word on who's starting Tuesday? The "blank" is like deafening silence. Off in the distance I hear whispers of "Homer.....Homer......Homer....."

:jump:

Ltlabner
09-01-2006, 04:33 PM
Any word on who's starting Tuesday? The "blank" is like deafening silence. Off in the distance I hear whispers of "Homer.....Homer......Homer....."

I think I hear the whispers too!

"Homer....stay home.....Homer...stay home....Homer...stay home"

;)

TeamBoone
09-01-2006, 06:16 PM
I think I hear the whispers too!

"Homer....stay home.....Homer...stay home....Homer...stay home"

;)

:D :D :D (I agree)

BoydsOfSummer
09-01-2006, 06:56 PM
I'm on record as being against bringing him up. But I'm leaning more the other way now. Don't put him in the rotation, but 5-6 bully appearances shouldn't hurt him nor run him above his innings limit. If he gets knocked around a little that's expected; if he has some success,all the better. Heck,even riding the pine up here with the big boys would be a positive experience I would think.

Starting his arb clock is another matter,however.

klw
09-01-2006, 06:58 PM
Any word on who's starting Tuesday? The "blank" is like deafening silence. Off in the distance I hear whispers of "Homer.....Homer......Homer....."

Won't it be Michalik after they bring him back once Sarasota's season ends. Could also be J. Johnson.

redsrule2500
09-01-2006, 06:59 PM
ugh they need to bring him up

cincyinco
09-01-2006, 07:02 PM
One other thing to remember for those who want to see Homer get the big callup is that he would have to work with the Reds pitching coaches. Now tell me that doesn't send a shiver up your spine.


With Vern Ruhle back? That doesn't scare me in the slightest.

Team Clark
09-01-2006, 08:25 PM
With Vern Ruhle back? That doesn't scare me in the slightest.


Excellent point and a NEW Dynamic to this conversation. Makes me think a little. I may be for 1 start with Vern hooked to his hip.

MrCinatit
09-01-2006, 09:19 PM
Excellent point and a NEW Dynamic to this conversation. Makes me think a little. I may be for 1 start with Vern hooked to his hip.

Wouldn't that make his windup a little awkward? :p:

I'm totally on the fence on this one. Part of me is afraid, another part wants to see what the kid could do up here. Vern being present does give me a little more comfort, if he were to be bought up.

Always Red
09-02-2006, 12:28 AM
in Vern I trust!

ChatterRed
09-02-2006, 01:02 AM
Nah. We don't need Bailey. We got Michalak. And we always have Joe Mays. Who needs Bailey.

TeamBoone
09-02-2006, 02:47 AM
Nah. We don't need Bailey. We got Michalak. And we always have Joe Mays. Who needs Bailey.

I don't think anyone said anything about whether or not Homer is needed. The debate is about what is/is not best for his development.

Highlifeman21
09-02-2006, 02:56 AM
Hypothetical Homer Situation...

Say he is brought up.... how will the kid react after he gets his precious fastball taken yard at the big league level? He still doesn't consistently throw any pitch not named fastball for strikes, so the scouting report on him will be real simple: see fastball, hit fastball.

I don't see the kid dealing too well in this situation, and that, is my biggest reason why he needs some AAA love before he graces GABP with his presence.

flyer85
09-02-2006, 11:09 AM
Last night Krivsky said that Homer will be staying with the Lookouts through the playoffs. He possibly could come up after that.

texasdave
09-02-2006, 12:42 PM
With the middle name of 'Dewitt', how can Homer not be destined to come up and save the Reds' backside? It has already been written in permanent ink on his birth certificate.