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RedsManRick
08-29-2006, 12:05 PM
The below from Kevin Goldstein at BP. I advocated taking Lincecum this year based on everything I had seen. Certainly you can't call any pitching a sure thing, but wow.


Tim Lincecum, rhp, San Jose Giants

In the age of ubiquitous communication, information can come from anybody, anywhere, and at any time. Last night while looking at boxscores from the day's games, an IM window popped up from somebody who sees as much California League action as anyone, who was watching San Jose take on Visalia. Four simple words: "Tim Lincecum is sick." Sitting at 95-96 mph and touching 98 on numerous occasions, Lincecum allowed one hit over 5.2 shutout innings, allowing one hit, walking two and striking out 11. In 26.2 innings as a pro, Lincecum has 49 strikeouts and has limited opposing batters to a .138 average. At 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds, Lincecum's ability to do what he does is often referred to as "freakish." One of my few hobbies outside of baseball is reading a lot and collecting a little concerning sideshows of the early 20th century, in particular, human oddities. In that world, there were two types of performers--the real deal, and "grifts," or fakes--and part of the interest in attending such shows was the debate over which attractions were the genuine article. Those who thought Lincecum was a grift dropped him to the 10th overall pick... and they were wrong.

Patrick Bateman
08-29-2006, 01:05 PM
The below from Kevin Goldstein at BP. I advocated taking Lincecum this year based on everything I had seen. Certainly you can't call any pitching a sure thing, but wow.

There was never really a doubt tom whether he had the skill and "stuff" to be a good pitcher, but it was his mechanics and build that I didn't like (and I think the Reds would agree).

He is a gamble based on how he is a big injury risk and may turn out to be better suited for the bullpen.

With that said, I would have still taken him over Stubbs based on how close he is to the majors while possessing a high ceiling. He's a good bet to make the majors while still having a good ceiling. Both of those aspects are very important.

LoganBuck
08-29-2006, 01:19 PM
I don't think anyone on this board can lay claim to the solo title of wanting to draft a certain player over Stubbs. I would much rather have had a pitcher Lincecum, or Drabek, spring to mind. We really don't need all the "what if posts?", for another pitcher ala Kazmir, and Sowers. I grow weary of those posts. Most of us wanted a pitcher, we didn't get one, move on.

I am ok with the Stubbs pick today, not because of his performance, but the premise that the Reds will need a centerfielder in three years, might as well get him, and fix his swing, he has the tools and can take a walk.

dougdirt
08-29-2006, 01:22 PM
Going into the draft, I just didnt want Drew Stubbs. I wanted anyone taken in the top 40 that was not Drew Stubbs. If he turns it around and becomes a decent player one day, I will eat crow all day long. Until then, I still cant believe they took a guy who had so many questions about his ability to hit with a top 10 pick.

flyer85
08-29-2006, 02:07 PM
I don't think anyone on this board can lay claim to the solo title of wanting to draft a certain player over Stubbs. A lot of people wanted Lincecum. I sure hope Stubbs pants fit like a glove.

RedsManRick
08-29-2006, 02:59 PM
I wasn't trying to claim the exclusive title and proclaim myself genius; just showing where the early returns fell. Certainly our system is quite weak in terms of good bats at the lower levels, and it's way too early to draw any conclusion about Stubbs or anybody else (though many are worried about his contact rate). Also, as was pointed out, Lincecum has funky mechanics and could break down before or shortly after he makes any impact.

Just saying that at least according to one person, if there were any worries that his stuff wouldn't translate, that concern seems to have been addressed.

NC Reds
08-29-2006, 05:12 PM
I'm in the camp of people who advocated Lincecum on draft day. Leading to the draft I also had some interest in Max Scherzer. I just didn't understand why we drafted a toolsy outfielder when starting pitching is a black hole in the organization. Can you imagine the buzz on this board if we had Bailey-Cueto-Lincecum in this organization? I would put that group of three against any other organization's group of three.

I haven't given up on Stubbs; I just never understood why he was rated so highly.

Superdude
08-29-2006, 06:51 PM
Lincecum has funky mechanics and could break down before or shortly after he makes any impact.

What's wrong with his mechanics? I'm definitely not an expert, but even though he throws completely out of his shoes, Lincecum's delivery doesn't look all that crazy. The 5'11" frame scares me more than his delivery.

OnBaseMachine
08-29-2006, 07:16 PM
I was one of the people calling for the Reds to draft Tim Lincecum. Too damn bad they didn't. Homer Bailey and Tim Lincecum would be a sick 1-2 duo for the next decade.

jmcclain19
08-29-2006, 07:52 PM
I'm so glad the Reds drafted Stubbs over Lincecum. The Reds definitely don't need his type of pitching, you know, dominant.

Aronchis
08-29-2006, 08:39 PM
Lincecum should beat up high A with is polish and stuff.

I don't see him as a starter however, and that will factor into decisions and it did to more teams than the Reds.

mth123
08-30-2006, 06:32 AM
I am ok with the Stubbs pick today, not because of his performance, but the premise that the Reds will need a centerfielder in three years, might as well get him, and fix his swing, he has the tools and can take a walk.

I don't think the Reds can wait three years to address the black hole in CF. A real solution is needed that will:

1. Improve the defense and help the pitching staff.
2. Have enough "street cred" in the player community to spur Griffey to move.

I suppose Ryan Freel could qualify for number 1, but to satisfy number 2 they will need to go outside the organization. If so, then Stubbs becomes a non-priority as compared to a pitcher (I think he already is anyway).

LoganBuck
08-30-2006, 11:59 AM
I don't think the Reds can wait three years to address the black hole in CF. A real solution is needed that will:

1. Improve the defense and help the pitching staff.
2. Have enough "street cred" in the player community to spur Griffey to move.

I suppose Ryan Freel could qualify for number 1, but to satisfy number 2 they will need to go outside the organization. If so, then Stubbs becomes a non-priority as compared to a pitcher (I think he already is anyway).

Your statement is true, but the problem is will Griffey move, or will Narron and Krivsky avoid the subject.

Aronchis
08-30-2006, 07:12 PM
Your statement is true, but the problem is will Griffey move, or will Narron and Krivsky avoid the subject.

Doesn't matter. Griffey only has 2 more years on his contract and he may not even survive them. By the time if by a miracle, Stubbs reached the majors, Griffey would be finished IMO.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-31-2006, 01:00 AM
Well, at least we got Bailey and Bruce. You have to have some 1st round busts to even it out, especially with this organization.

It just seems that once again the Reds have out-thought themselves by passing on Lincecum.

Whether he was helping the 'pen late in the season with a chance to eventually start (see Roy Oswalt) or just a full year of minor league ball away, I thought that he was the best pick for our slot.

I hope I'm wrong, but Drew Stubbs does not appear worthy of the money or the selection. There were Stubbs doubters long before the Reds drafted him. I'm sure they had good reason and his perfomance so far, at 22, in rookie league -a hitters league no less, where all other regulars have out hit him, speaks volumes.

I'm sure he's got a great glove and is a super-duper kid, but unfortunately, that's not quite enough.

Cedric
08-31-2006, 01:47 AM
Well, at least we got Bailey and Bruce. You have to have some 1st round busts to even it out, especially with this organization.

It just seems that once again the Reds have out-thought themselves by passing on Lincecum.

Whether he was helping the 'pen late in the season with a chance to eventually start (see Roy Oswalt) or just a full year of minor league ball away, I thought that he was the best pick for our slot.

I hope I'm wrong, but Drew Stubbs does not appear worthy of the money or the selection. There were Stubbs doubters long before the Reds drafted him. I'm sure they had good reason and his perfomance so far, at 22, in rookie league -a hitters league no less, where all other regulars have out hit him, speaks volumes.

I'm sure he's got a great glove and is a super-duper kid, but unfortunately, that's not quite enough.
Yep, not quite enough. Let's cut him.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-31-2006, 08:23 AM
Yep, not quite enough. Let's cut him.

Can't. He's already been paid too much.

Keep him in Billings again for 2007 (blame it on the injury) and hope he finally hits amongst the youngsters so that he can be shined up and then hope that Bowden or some other GM fascinated with tools offers something better than Majewski or Bray for him.

They need to just admit their mistake and move on.

cincyinco
08-31-2006, 08:43 PM
It amazes me how many people are soooo impatient - especially when it comes to a game such as baseball... which on the surface, is slow.

You don't call it quits on a guy after a 1/2 season. Thank god we didn't give up on Homer after his year last year.

nmculbreth
08-31-2006, 08:54 PM
It amazes me how many people are soooo impatient - especially when it comes to a game such as baseball... which on the surface, is slow.

You don't call it quits on a guy after a 1/2 season. Thank god we didn't give up on Homer after his year last year.

Agreed. I didn't like the pick at the time but the fact that people are ready to give up on him after a bad half season at rookie ball is laughable. I think it's clear that Stubbs needs to work on his swing but let's not forget that he has the tools to be a very successful big league player.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-31-2006, 11:09 PM
You don't call it quits on a guy after a 1/2 season. Thank god we didn't give up on Homer after his year last year.

I just didn't particularly like the pick. That's all. We've seen Kazmir and now Sowers make an impact and the Reds have passed on another good one, for a marginal hitting, slick fielding CF.

No thanks.

Patience is going 11 years since making the playoffs and in the meanwhile watching an organization out-think itself at every turn.

You are right, I have little patience, but that has little to do with why I'm not bursting with fruit flavor at the thought of Drew Stubbs. You gotta admit, the guy didn't bring it with his stick in a hitting league, playing against younger kids.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-31-2006, 11:13 PM
Agreed. I didn't like the pick at the time but the fact that people are ready to give up on him after a bad half season at rookie ball is laughable. I think it's clear that Stubbs needs to work on his swing but let's not forget that he has the tools to be a very successful big league player.

Laughable is passing on Lincecum.

Cedric
08-31-2006, 11:21 PM
Laughable is passing on Lincecum.

We'll see. Way too early to make any judgements based on a handful of innings from a college pitcher in High A ball.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-31-2006, 11:49 PM
Ced, who is the guy in your avatar?

Cedric
08-31-2006, 11:53 PM
Ced, who is the guy in your avatar?

Ernest Hemingway.

I'm nervous about Saturday by the way. I don't like having an inexperienced back seven trying to tackle Wolfe.

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 12:19 AM
It amazes me how many people are soooo impatient - especially when it comes to a game such as baseball... which on the surface, is slow.

You don't call it quits on a guy after a 1/2 season. Thank god we didn't give up on Homer after his year last year.

Good points.

I would have preferred Lincecum, but Stubbs is also a very good prospect.

He may be a college player, but he was always thought of as a raw college player. He's not polished, so it will be awhile before we see dividends. The sky is the limit for Stubbs, we just have to be patient with him. No doubt, he's off to a slow start, but that was not unexpected, and does not mean that he wont hit in the future.

Aronchis
09-01-2006, 03:13 PM
I bet if DanO were still GM, Lincecum may have been the pick, he didn't shy away from short pitchers and he already drafted his outfield stud the year before.

Maybe they should have just kept DanO for the draft since 05 was a good improvement over 04, 06 could have really been flying high lol.

HBP
09-01-2006, 05:01 PM
It amazes me how many people are soooo impatient - especially when it comes to a game such as baseball... which on the surface, is slow.

You don't call it quits on a guy after a 1/2 season. Thank god we didn't give up on Homer after his year last year.

Another example is Votto. I wouldn't say people gave up on him after 2005, but he was by no means an elite prospect like he is now. It's funny to look at the people ranked ahead of him by BA after '05.

cincyinco
09-01-2006, 06:09 PM
You dont' have to sell me on not liking the pick. If you take the time to research the threads regarding this draft, about 2 weeks ahead of time I predicted that Lincecum would fall to the Reds and that we had a shot at grabbing him. I'm not trying to step up on the soap box, but Stubbs was not my guy either. At all. And still wasn't on draft day. And still isn't.

But that part of the process is over. We have what we have. And I can at least come to grips with the pick more today, than I could on draft day. Stubbs has had a rough debut. But there's still a long road to go ahead. And lots of things can happen.

I've stated time and time again we have no idea what could be going on with Stubbs. He could be working on a mechanical issue in his swing that the Reds brass asked him to address. He could be wore down from a long college season, and a quick pro debut. There could be many reasons, none of which we are privy too unless we're Stubbs or connected inside with the Reds in some capacity.

So while this 1/2 season may be a bit of a dissapointment, I'm nowhere near ready to write this kid off. If he can turn into a Juan Pierre with OBP skills and a bit more pop? - And I don't think that would be too far of a stretch as a comparison - I think I would be one happy camper with the pick.

Superdude
09-01-2006, 06:35 PM
I'm nowhere near ready to write this kid off. If he can turn into a Juan Pierre with OBP skills and a bit more pop? - And I don't think that would be too far of a stretch as a comparison

I don't mean to be cruel, but that is a horrible comparison. Pierre hits for a great average, has 11 career homeruns, and once stole 65 bases. That doesn't sounds like Stubbs at all. I think Mike Cameron is the best comparison...(mediocre average, good OBP, with a 20+ homers and 30+ stolen bases.

cincyinco
09-02-2006, 10:11 AM
I bet if DanO were still GM, Lincecum may have been the pick, he didn't shy away from short pitchers and he already drafted his outfield stud the year before.

Maybe they should have just kept DanO for the draft since 05 was a good improvement over 04, 06 could have really been flying high lol.

LOL.. agreed.. if there was one thing I liked about DanO it was his drafts. I don't buy into the stereotype's that short pitchers can't succeed.. especially one's with Lincecum's stuff. Its amazing.

Everyone talked about his mechanics too - well, I'd like to point out that there is still so much unknown about the art of pitching, that weird mechanics don't scare me - ala Dontrelle Willis. As long as the guy stays healthy, and by all accounts Lincecum has never had a major arm injury during his career. He has an unorthodox throwing regimine program, and its worked his whole career. Nothing about this guy scares me, except his talent and the fact we passed it up... Was real bummed about that. Giants got a great pick.. him and Cain should form and awesome duo. Tim L. should be ready soon, would have been nice to have him and Homer ready about the same time table. Oh well.

cincyinco
09-02-2006, 10:21 AM
Another example is Votto. I wouldn't say people gave up on him after 2005, but he was by no means an elite prospect like he is now. It's funny to look at the people ranked ahead of him by BA after '05.

perfect example, votto really struggled... this can happen to anyone, even the best have "off years" or prolonged slumps from time to time. No one should give up on a guy who still has a high ceiling and big upside because of 1 bad year. Let them put up another bad year before writing them off.

Players adjust differently. A good case is NYM prospect Carlos Gomez. Youngest player in AA this year. Take a look at his stats:

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=460576&tm=BinEL&bp=b

Monthly splits show how lost he was to start the year, then wah-lah! He started figuring it out in June, had an outragous July, and a solid August. If you look over his career he's struggled at lower levels too. He is similar to Stubbs in that he is very toolsy. Sometimes the toolsy players take longer to develope, but when they do they are exciting ballplayers.

Don't give up on Stubbs yet guys... his ceiling is pretty high for a prospect, even if the tools have yet to translate to results.

cincyinco
09-02-2006, 10:29 AM
I don't mean to be cruel, but that is a horrible comparison. Pierre hits for a great average, has 11 career homeruns, and once stole 65 bases. That doesn't sounds like Stubbs at all. I think Mike Cameron is the best comparison...(mediocre average, good OBP, with a 20+ homers and 30+ stolen bases.


Just my humble opinion, i'm no pro scout... stubbs hit for average with aluminum... and with some decent pop and OBP... i see him at his peak as a .280 hitter, .380 OBP, 470ish SLG type guy with 20HR on a GOOD year, but gap power and 30+ Stolen bases with incredible defense(which by all accounts i've read is GG quality... wasn't his speed rated 80 on the 20-80 scale?

mth123
09-02-2006, 10:32 AM
Just my humble opinion, i'm no pro scout... stubbs hit for average with aluminum... and with some decent pop and OBP... i see him at his peak as a .280 hitter, .380 OBP, 470ish SLG type guy with 20HR on a GOOD year, but gap power and 30+ Stolen bases with incredible defense(which by all accounts i've read is GG quality... wasn't his speed rated 80 on the 20-80 scale?


If he does that, then this pick is a big success. We all want the second coming of Willie Mays with the 1st round pick, but many never even reach the majors. Where is John Oliver these days?

Thanks for the scouting report, I learn a lot about these guys here.

cincyinco
09-02-2006, 11:16 AM
If he does that, then this pick is a big success. We all want the second coming of Willie Mays with the 1st round pick, but many never even reach the majors. Where is John Oliver these days?

Thanks for the scouting report, I learn a lot about these guys here.

keep in mind thats what i think his peak or prime years could look like if he makes it... he could just as easily turn into corey patterson for all we know. :mooner:

flyer85
09-11-2006, 01:46 PM
Tim Lincecum, rhp, High Class A San Jose (Giants)

As the division finals began in the complicated California League playoffs, San Jose, who had a bye in the first round, put their 2006 first-round pick on the mound in the opener. Lincecum, fresh from racking up 58 strikeouts over 31.2 innings in his debut, led the Giants to a 3-2 win over Visalia with his longest outing since signing. In seven innings, Lincecum allowed one run on five hits and a walk, while striking out ten. One scout in attendance clocked the diminutive righty consistently in the mid-90s with plenty of 98s thrown in for good measure, and described his curveball as earning a 70 or better ranking on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. With the Giants in the mix of a very crowded National League wild card race, just one game could make all the difference. Will Lincecum be pitching in that game? Don't count on it, but don't bet against it either.