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View Full Version : Perhaps Lopez could have been traded for Maddux



redsupport
09-01-2006, 01:36 PM
I think Lopez ability exceeds Izturis(who is presently injured) Perhaps some patience would resulted in Maddux pitching here rather than for the Dodgers

Red Leader
09-01-2006, 01:38 PM
Maddux wanted to pitch for a west coast team. If he couldn't have been dealt to a west coast team, they wouldn't have dealt him. At this point in his career, whatever Greg Maddux wanted, Greg Maddux was going to get. I don't see how the Reds would have had a legitimate shot at acquiring him no matter who they offered.

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 01:42 PM
I would take the guys we got over Maddux. One year left on a deal for a team unlikely to make the play-offs with or without him.

At the time of the trade, it started off supposedly a one for one swap of Majewski and Kearns (so if we only traded Kearns we would have probably got Majewski and one of the prospects or something close to that), so I'm guessing Bray and either Thompson or Harris (and of course Clayton) is what Lopez was worth in the trade.

I would take 6 years of Bray over 1/2 year of Maddux any day.

SultanOfSwing
09-01-2006, 03:39 PM
I think Lopez ability exceeds Izturis

Whoa! Stop right there. Felipe Lopez is not the same caliber SS as Izturis. They are both 26. Izturis won a Gold Glove in 2004 and is an excellent defensive SS all the way around. The SS position is all about defense and offense is a bonus. In the 2004 season Izturis batted .288 .330 .381 with 25 SB and 62 RBIs. Lopez's number in 2005 were .291 .352 .486 with 15 SB and 85 RBIs. The offensive production is very comparable, but the defense is a landslide. Add to that that Izturis has proven to be better over a greater time and the fact that defense does not go away, Lopez could not have gotten G. Maddux for us.

Even with that said, as the previous posters have mentioned, Maddux was not going anywhere but the West Coast.

flyer85
09-01-2006, 03:48 PM
Whoa! Stop right there. Felipe Lopez is not the same caliber SS as Izturis. and Izturis is not the same caliber an offensive player as Lopez. Lopez is cheaper and also not coming off TJ surgery. A .710 OPS and a .840 are anywhere near comparable.

Likely could have brought Maddux and then some.

RedFanAlways1966
09-01-2006, 04:06 PM
Perhaps trading a player to a team w/in your own divison might factor into a trade too?

flyer85
09-01-2006, 04:13 PM
Perhaps trading a player to a team w/in your own divison might factor into a trade too?anything is possible.

What we do know is that the Cubs got very little return on Maddux (certainly Izturiz with his lack of hitting, injury history and salary is no prize).

SultanOfSwing
09-01-2006, 04:16 PM
I think Lopez ability exceeds Izturis(who is presently injured) Perhaps some patience would resulted in Maddux pitching here rather than for the Dodgers


and Izturis is not the same caliber an offensive player as Lopez. Lopez is cheaper and also not coming off TJ surgery. A .710 OPS and a .840 are anywhere near comparable.

Likely could have brought Maddux and then some.

Yes, Lopez has more power, but I don't believe that makes him a much better (if at all) offensive player than Izturis. Lopez has always been a question mark. He had a breakout season in 2005 but has not fared so well this year. Don't get me wrong, I like Lopez and hope he does well, and he may very well have success in the future. However, which would you rather have a Gold Glove SS with a solid bat and excellent speed or a poor SS with a power bat (and not overwhelming power, ie Tejada) and very good speed?

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 04:22 PM
Yes, Lopez has more power, but I don't believe that makes him a much better (if at all) offensive player than Izturis. Lopez has always been a question mark. He had a breakout season in 2005 but has not fared so well this year. Don't get me wrong, I like Lopez and hope he does well, and he may very well have success in the future. However, which would you rather have a Gold Glove SS with a solid bat and excellent speed or a poor SS with a power bat (and not overwhelming power, ie Tejada) and very good speed?

Comparing Izturis and Lopez offensively is like trying to compare Izturis and Lopez defensively.

flyer85
09-01-2006, 04:24 PM
Yes, Lopez has more power, but I don't believe that makes him a much better (if at all) offensive player than Izturis. What does matter is if you have have something that correlates better to run creation than OPS and also that it shows Izturis is on par with Lopez.

Izturis is going to make over $4M next year, likely quite a bit more than Lopez will be paid. In addition Lopez may still have value playing other positions, Izturis would only have value(maybe) at SS and he better play GG defense.

jimbo
09-01-2006, 04:30 PM
anything is possible.

What we do know is that the Cubs got very little return on Maddux (certainly Izturiz with his lack of hitting, injury history and salary is no prize).

Not necessarily when you consider they would have gotten nothing at the end of the season if they had kept him.

Could the Reds have traded Lopez for Maddux if they had kept him? Probably not because Maddux wanted to go west, a point which people seem to keep forgetting. I think Reds fans are overvaluing Lopez. His bat is ok, nothing great. His defense was a liability. If I had my choice between Izturis and Lopez, I take Izturis for that reason.

Newman4
09-01-2006, 04:31 PM
which would you rather have a Gold Glove SS with a solid bat and excellent speed or a poor SS with a power bat (and not overwhelming power, ie Tejada) and very good speed?

I'd pick Tejada over either of them. By the way, since when does Tejada not have overwhelming power? Dude has hit an average of 28 HR per year and never hit below 20 in the last eight.

Homer Bailey
09-01-2006, 04:33 PM
It should also be noted that it is very unlikely that the Cubs would trade within the central division, even if it was for only half of a year. I could also easily see Maddux turning down a trade to us simply because of the fact that he owns us and would love to pitch against the Reds every game of his career.

flyer85
09-01-2006, 04:38 PM
I could also easily see Maddux turning down a trade to us simply Maddux did not have a no-trade clause.

jimbo
09-01-2006, 04:43 PM
Maddux did not have a no-trade clause.

No, but it was well known he had a verbal agreement with Cubs ownership on who he would get traded to.

texasdave
09-01-2006, 04:44 PM
Maddux did not have a no-trade clause.

In a technical sense that is correct. But I believe the Cubs would not have traded him to a team that he didn't want to pitch for. That is not to say that he would have turned down a trade to Cincinnati.

SultanOfSwing
09-01-2006, 04:47 PM
Comparing Izturis and Lopez offensively is like trying to compare Izturis and Lopez defensively.


What does matter is if you have have something that correlates better to run creation than OPS and also that it shows Izturis is on par with Lopez.

Izturis is going to make over $4M next year, likely quite a bit more than Lopez will be paid. In addition Lopez may still have value playing other positions, Izturis would only have value(maybe) at SS and he better play GG defense.

I understand all the arguments given here. I am only trying to look at matters from the other team's viewpoint. Let us say you were the Cubs' GM and had two offers on the table for Greg Maddux -- one is Izturis, the other is Lopez. So you look at all the deciding factors to choose the best option.

1) Defensive = No contest. Izturis hands down. One of the best 2 or 3 defensive SS in baseball.
2) Power = Lopez. Izturis has very little power. Lopez proved he had power in 2005 and put up great power numbers for a MI. That said Izturis isn't terrible, he did have 4 HR 32 Doubles in 2004 vs. 23 HR 34 Doubles in 2005 for Lopez.
3) Average = Draw. Both batted a little below .300 in their breakout seasons. Other than that just average.
4) Speed = Izturis. I do believe most scouts regard him as very dangerous on the basepaths. That said, they are both very fast.
5) Age = Draw. Both 26.
6) Salary = Lopez. Millions cheaper, but Lopez is due for a big raise next year.

I think in the end a GM would look at both and see they are still a bit unproven. Lopez had the better offensive year, but not overwhelmingly. What you want most from your SS is defense, and Izturis porvides that in abundance. It basically comes down to the fact that they both had breakout years, but Izturis won a Gold Glove while doing it.

And throw the "intangibles" that everyone loves to talk about. Izturis seems to have some, Lopez doesn't.

That is just one man's opinion.

SultanOfSwing
09-01-2006, 04:52 PM
I'd pick Tejada over either of them. By the way, since when does Tejada not have overwhelming power? Dude has hit an average of 28 HR per year and never hit below 20 in the last eight.

I meant Tejada does have overwhelming power. I guess I phrased that incorrectly. Sorry. :)

The fact is, with a player like Tejada, if he was lacking defensively (which he is not) you could overlook that with what he brings to the table offensively. Lopez does not fit that category IMO.

terminator
09-01-2006, 05:03 PM
The way Maddux was pitching before the trade deadline I wouldn't have given up anything for him. His ERA was nearly 5.00 and that was because he had a fantastic April. I think his ERA was 6+ in May, June and July.

Hindsight being 20/20, of course . . . it would have been nice.

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 05:12 PM
1) Defensive = No contest. Izturis hands down. One of the best 2 or 3 defensive SS in baseball.
2) Power = Lopez. Izturis has very little power. Lopez proved he had power in 2005 and put up great power numbers for a MI. That said Izturis isn't terrible, he did have 4 HR 32 Doubles in 2004 vs. 23 HR 34 Doubles in 2005 for Lopez.
3) Average = Draw. Both batted a little below .300 in their breakout seasons. Other than that just average.
4) Speed = Izturis. I do believe most scouts regard him as very dangerous on the basepaths. That said, they are both very fast.
5) Age = Draw. Both 26.
6) Salary = Lopez. Millions cheaper, but Lopez is due for a big raise next year.




I think you're underestimating Lopez's hitting advantage over Izturis.

This season Lopez has an OPS of .755 and had an OPS of .838 last season.
This season Izturis has an OPS of .623 and had an OPS of .624 last season.

These two shortstops are incomparable offensively. Lopez absolutely destroys Izturis as a hitter. The last 2 seasons Lopez has been a better hitter for average, displays more patience and has way more power. If you want to bring speed on the basepaths into the argument, Lopez kills him there too.

The last 2 seasons Izturis has 9 SB and 12 CS. In '04 he had 25 SB's. For whatever reason, he's not much of a threat anymore. Lopez on the other hand has 48 SB the last 2 years and 18 CS. He's easily the better threat on the basepaths.

Obviously Izturis is much better with the glove, but IMO that does not even come close to Lopez's hitting prowess over Izturis. Izturis has been pathetically bad at the plate the last seasons (worse than our beloved Royce Clayton by a lot).

I have not put much credit to Izturis' '04 season, but that's because we have more than 600 at-bats since then, and it looks to me that his hitting skills have decline very rapidly (and it's not a small sample).

registerthis
09-01-2006, 05:26 PM
I think you're underestimating Lopez's hitting advantage over Izturis.

This season Lopez has an OPS of .755 and had an OPS of .838 last season.
This season Izturis has an OPS of .623 and had an OPS of .624 last season.

These two shortstops are incomparable offensively. Lopez absolutely destroys Izturis as a hitter.

Career RC/27:

Felipe Lopez: 4.71
Cesar Izturis: 3.42

That means that a team of Felipe Lopez's would score 1.3 runs per game MORE than a team of Izturis's. Over the course of a full season, that amounts to a run differential of over 210 runs.

Keep in mind, also, that Izturis has had more plate appearances in which to establish himself. Lopez only recently became a full time player, and his numbers have greatly increased since then--in 2005, there was nearly a 3 runs per game difference between the two of them. Lopez and Izturis aren't even in the same league offensively, there's really no question about that.

SultanOfSwing
09-01-2006, 05:28 PM
I think you're underestimating Lopez's hitting advantage over Izturis.

This season Lopez has an OPS of .755 and had an OPS of .838 last season.
This season Izturis has an OPS of .623 and had an OPS of .624 last season.

These two shortstops are incomparable offensively. Lopez absolutely destroys Izturis as a hitter. The last 2 seasons Lopez has been a better hitter for average, displays more patience and has way more power. If you want to bring speed on the basepaths into the argument, Lopez kills him there too.

The last 2 seasons Izturis has 9 SB and 12 CS. In '04 he had 25 SB's. For whatever reason, he's not much of a threat anymore. Lopez on the other hand has 48 SB the last 2 years and 18 CS. He's easily the better threat on the basepaths.

Obviously Izturis is much better with the glove, but IMO that does not even come close to Lopez's hitting prowess over Izturis. Izturis has been pathetically bad at the plate the last seasons (worse than our beloved Royce Clayton by a lot).

I have not put much credit to Izturis' '04 season, but that's because we have more than 600 at-bats since then, and it looks to me that his hitting skills have decline very rapidly (and it's not a small sample).

So then, if Izturis and Lopez were on the same team, you would start Lopez? Do you think any manager would?

registerthis
09-01-2006, 05:30 PM
So then, if Izturis and Lopez were on the same team, you would start Lopez? Do you think any manager would?

Depends on how much offense I needed, and how the rest of my team was built.

If I had a pitching staff comprised predominantly of fly ball pitchers, or I had a third baseman and a second baseman who could cover a lot of ground at their respective positions, then sure.

Alternatively, I'd move Felipe to 2B and let Izturis man short and play the role of offensive black hole.

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 05:49 PM
So then, if Izturis and Lopez were on the same team, you would start Lopez? Do you think any manager would?

Lopez for sure. Even with his poor defensive skills, he's still worth more to me then Izturis is.

REDREAD
09-01-2006, 07:37 PM
It should also be noted that it is very unlikely that the Cubs would trade within the central division, even if it was for only half of a year. I could also easily see Maddux turning down a trade to us simply because of the fact that he owns us and would love to pitch against the Reds every game of his career.

Why wouldn't the Cubs trade within the division? They made that big trade with the Pirates for A Ramerez.

In this case, they are hypothetically trading Maddux who will be retiring soon for a 26 year old guy that would hopefully be around a long time for them. (Again, this assumes they like Lopez).

pedro
09-01-2006, 08:00 PM
and by any metric you choose (errors, RF, ZR, simply watching) Felipe Lopez is arguably the worst fileding SS in the major leagues this year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 08:08 PM
and by any metric you choose (errors, RF, ZR, simply watching) Felipe Lopez is arguably the worst fileding SS in the major leagues this year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating

Ya, I think everyone would agree on that, but his hitting still outweighs his fielding problems in comparison to Izturis IMO.

pedro
09-01-2006, 08:19 PM
Ya, I think everyone would agree on that, but his hitting still outweighs his fielding problems in comparison to Izturis IMO.

IMO neither one of their respective positive attributes outweigh their negative ones. TMBS, I'd rather suffer through watching Izturiz poor offensive play than Lopez poor defense.

IMO Washington is Lopez' last stop as a SS. He wouldn;t be playing there for any other team and as soon as Bowden gets canned he probably won;t be playing SS for them either.

pedro
09-01-2006, 08:26 PM
Lopez is worth about 30 runs more on offense than Izturis over the course of a year. I'm not sure that Izturiz' defense doesn't close that gap.

(based on assumption of 650 plate appearances each and using the RC/27 numbers provided by registerthis above)

MartyFan
09-01-2006, 08:29 PM
I love posts like this...ther is absolutely no way to determine if there is anything to them at all.

It's like saying perhaps Batman was really a better super hero than Superman.

Maybe chocolate is better than vanilla.

paulrichjr
09-01-2006, 08:59 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46564&highlight=give+me+maddux

This is what I said back in May. It was interesting that very few people thought Maddux had anything left. I do not buy this stuff about Maddux not wanting to go somewhere because frankly he had no choice. If the Reds had made an offer that was superior to the Dodgers offer the Cubs would have taken it... I think we would be leading the division right now with Maddux in the rotation.

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 09:12 PM
Lopez is worth about 30 runs more on offense than Izturis over the course of a year. I'm not sure that Izturiz' defense doesn't close that gap.

(based on assumption of 650 plate appearances each and using the RC/27 numbers provided by registerthis above)


A simple stat to use is WSP (win share percentage, it's a rate stat combining offense and defense for how often you acquire win shares) Win shares aren't my favorite stat, but I find they do a suitable job for defense and pretty good for offense. Here's their percentages by year:

Izturis:

2004: .609
2005: .235
2006 w/ Dodgers: .222
2006 w/ Cubs: -.024

Lopez:

2004: .534
2005: .663
2006 w/Reds: .452
2006 w/Nats: .337

This certainly is not an all end to the argument or anything close, but it's a pretty good indication of judging a player's worth in both aspects.

Lopez at his best is better than Izturis at his best. If Izturis were able to get his hitting back up to 2004 levels of play he would out-perform Lopez's current level of play. Lopez certainly looks like the better of the 2 players based on all 3 seasons, but would likely be more valuable if he could handle the switch to 2nd base. Lopez may not be a very valuable SS right now, but I think he's more valuable than Izturis even when factoring in fielding. Anyways, that's just one way of looking at it.

westofyou
09-01-2006, 09:18 PM
Lopez may not be a very valuable SS right now, but I think he's more valuable than Izturis even when factoring in fielding. Depends on whether you value the runs or the fielding, at SS I'm prone to value the firleding. 16% or so of all batted balls end up there, Lopez currently has 0.5 defensive WS, that's in 127 games, Izturis has 0.5 in 17 games.

If I had a GB staff I'd be prone to take the hit on the batting side and go with Izturis.

Patrick Bateman
09-01-2006, 09:21 PM
Depends on whether you value the runs or the fielding, at SS I'm prone to value the firleding. 16% or so of all batted balls end up there, Lopez currently has 0.5 defensive WS, that's in 127 games, Izturis has 0.5 in 17 games.

If I had a GB staff I'd be prone to take the hit on the batting side and go with Izturis.

That's why I used the rate stat. It shows (assuming it's an accurate measure) regardless of what you value (fielding or batting) who wins more games. You may prefer the slick fielding SS more, but it ultimately will lead to less victories in this instance.