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mth123
09-04-2006, 12:35 PM
Since many think the season is over and others like me are bored waiting for the game on a Holiday. I thought I would try to get some opinions on next year's team. I have categorized the players based on how I see it. Obviously, the guys in the Back for Sure and Others I keep categories are "touchable" in the right deal (but can't really predict deals). The Trade Bait guys are guys who should be shopped or used as sweetener in deals involving others. Just trying to spur some discussion.

Back For Sure (14)
Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Harang, Brandon Phillips (at SS), Ryan Freel (as a Roving 80% of the time player), Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg (Just signed), Eric Milton (Stuck with him), Ken Griffey Jr (Stuck with him but in RF:pray: ), Javier Valentin (Just signed), Bill Bray (Trade Justification), Gary Majewski (Trade Justification), Rheal Cormier (probably Stuck), Todd Coffey

Others I'd Keep (5)
Rich Aurilia (at a reasonable price as a roving 80% of the time player), Kyle Lohse (at 80% of current pay), David Weathers (on a deal same as this year), Brendon Harris, Brian Shackelford (cheap loogy)

Trade Bait
David Ross (sell High), Jason Larue (Payflex), Matt Belisle, Jason Standridge, Elizardo Ramirez, Chris Denorfia (blasphemy I know), William Bergolla

Goodbye
Kent Mercker, Juan Castro, Royce Clayton, Todd Hollandsworth, Scott Schoenweiss ( I like him but we are stuck with lots of lefties and can use the money elsewhere), Ryan Franklin, Paul Wilson, Chris Michalek, Joe Mays, Eddie Guardado

Injury Comebacks to Gamble With
Grant Balfour, Brandon Claussen

Contributers from the Minors
Rey Olmedo (In Castro's role), Homer Bailey (at mid-season), Joey Votto (at Mid-season), Probably one or more of several relievers that I don't know enough about (Shafer, Coutlangus, Medlock, etc).

I see a need at Starting Pitcher, Closer, CF (who has power, range and plays good defense) and maybe catcher but probably either Larue or Ross will be back. Although both Milton and Griffey are on bad contracts, I wouldn't just give them away for payflex (I would Larue). Even with the flaws they have, it would cost a lot to replace Griffey and even Milton.

Hatteberg and Aurilia are keepers while in contention and if they are playing well. Otherwise they move to the bench or could be traded with their roles going to Votto and Harris.

With the money going out and the new TV deal, there should be some money available to add some impact players. CF and Closer are probably more realistic than a starter who is an improvement and who will be worth the money.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 12:59 PM
That's some awful trade bait (no offense).

I'd try to make the roster look as little like the current one as possible. I'd really think about cashing in Harang for younger, higher-ceiling arms (two, preferably). I'd trade Dunn for the same return. Then I'd bring up Votto and sign a couple FA bats.

I'd keep Arroyo because he's steady and cheap, and every team needs a guy who's a shoe-in to throw 200 innings.

Oh, and I'd eat Milton's contract and cut him.

Ltlabner
09-04-2006, 01:10 PM
I'd really think about cashing in Harang for younger, higher-ceiling arms (two, preferably). I'd trade Dunn for the same return. Then I'd bring up Votto and sign a couple FA bats.

Whoa.

So you'd trade one of our only reliable starters for prospects (thus meaning we go back into "we'll be competitive in 5 years mode)"?

And then you'd trade away major portion of our offensive production again for prospects?

So you want to fire Kriv now becuase he hasn't produced (in your opinion), but you want the Reds to take a course of action that means that they likely woln't produce for a while.

I'm having a hard time following you here FCB.

mth123
09-04-2006, 01:10 PM
That's some awful trade bait (no offense).


I agree the trade bait is not very good. Obviously the whole team is trade bait in the right deal. Probably should have called it, guys I'd love to get something for instead of just getting rid of them.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 01:16 PM
Whoa.

So you'd trade one of our only reliable starter for prospects (thus meaning we go back into "we'll be competitive in 5 years mode)"?

And then you'd trade away major portion of our offensive production again for prospects?

So you want to fire Kriv now becuase he hasn't produced (in your opinion), but you want the Reds to take a course of action that means that they likely woln't produce for a while.

I'm having a hard time following you here FCB.

The Marlins are outproducing the Reds with kids and a rookie manager. I'm not concerned about a timeline as long as the arms coming back to the Reds are a) close to the majors and b) higher ceiling than Harang or Arroyo or anything else currently in the Reds system (which won't be difficult to trump).

And maybe in the next couple of years one or two of the system's arms can bolster the bullpen. So, no, I don't think I'm "setting the team back" in my formulation; if anything, I think I'm "speeding them up"; instead of playing the wait and see game with the current Reds "prospects" and the MLB arms we have. This ballclub needs an infusion of starters worse than any club in MLB--even after all of Krivsky's "tinkering." If you can get a starter and reliever for Harang, you do it.

Ltlabner
09-04-2006, 01:19 PM
I'm not concerned about a timeline as long as the arms coming back to the Reds are a) close to the majors and b) higher ceiling than Harang or Arroyo or anything else currently in the Reds system (which won't be difficult to trump).

Ok, I'll continue to play along.

Which team out there is likely to (a) have two young, promising, on the verge of being almost-MLB ready arms and (2) be willing to give them up and (III) be willing to trade them for Harrang?

Without a trading partner that meets these requirements then your plan doesn't go very far.

It's definatley a radical plan. I can't imagine the freakout that would likely occur if Harrang was traded for two prospects, no matter how promissing they were.

MaineRed
09-04-2006, 01:21 PM
I can't see trading either Arroyo or Harrang. They are two of the best the Reds have had in ages. I think the goal should be to add to them, not use them to build our 2009 staff. Find another guy that falls in line right behind them and then pray Bailey is all he is hpyed up to be and you've got a pretty good staff. Then your looking at a guy like Lohse, Milton or whomever as your fifth starter instead of using those names to fill out the top of your rotation.

Votto will depend on Richie Rich and Hatteberg. If they play anywhere near the way they have this year, bringing Votto up before September will be tough, unless you make a trade. That of course might be a good option, especially if the two vets continue their good play while Votto is Adam Dunning the door down. That would be ideal.

I'm also open to trading Ross. Love what the guy has brought to the team with his stick but I do not like his defense. I think we should go with Larue next year. You know he is going to be looking for redemption. I feel bad for the guy. The Reds are finally contending and he just can't get out of his funk. Maybe it is wishful thinking to believe he isn't toast but the same could be said for believing Ross will hit another 20ish dingers. Larue and Valentin were the most potent catcher combo in the NL last year. I don't give up on Jason. Especially when he is the only defensive catcher the Reds have.

It will be interesting to see what the Reds do at SS. That is the biggie for me. Maybe the Reds find a CF, move Junior to right, Freel to second and BP to SS. Rich could back up Freel and Edwin and get even more time at second when Freel was giving one of the OFers a day off.

So yeah, as far as the line-up goes, a CF might be all the Reds need.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 01:25 PM
Ok, I'll continue to play along.

Which team out there is likely to (a) have two young, promising, on the verge of being almost-MLB ready arms and (2) be willing to give them up and (III) be willing to trade them for Harrang?

Without a trading partner that meets these requirements then your plan doesn't go very far.

It's definatley a radical plan. I can't imagine the freakout that would likely occur if Harrang was traded for two prospects, no matter how promissing they were.

I don't know, find the teams that fancy themselves a contender next year, and see what each of those clubs has in its minor league system and go from there.

MaineRed
09-04-2006, 01:26 PM
The Marlins are outproducing the Reds with kids and a rookie manager.

There are more teams outproducing the Reds with vets and vet managers. The Marlins example proves it can be done but it is not being done by anyone else.

And lets face it, if this was MarlinsZone, you and a lot of other folks would be saying we are only in the thing because the rest of the NL sucks. You'd tell us that if it were a normal year, our kids and stupid rookie manager would of been out of it long ago.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 01:31 PM
There are more teams outproducing the Reds with vets and vet managers. The Marlins example proves it can be done but it is not being done by anyone else.

And lets face it, if this was MarlinsZone, you and a lot of other folks would be saying we are only in the thing because the rest of the NL sucks. You'd tell us that if it were a normal year, our kids and stupid rookie manager would of been out of it long ago.

Well, in the AL two very young teams (Tigers, Twins) are also seeing tremendous success.

mth123
09-04-2006, 01:31 PM
It will be interesting to see what the Reds do at SS. That is the biggie for me. Maybe the Reds find a CF, move Junior to right, Freel to second and BP to SS. Rich could back up Freel and Edwin and get even more time at second when Freel was giving one of the OFers a day off.

This is exactly what I was thinking when calling Freel and Aurilia 80% of thetime roving players. Aurilia will play 1b against lefties and Griffey needs to sit one day per week with Freel in the OF. As you say, Aurilia could get some time backing up at 3B and SS. He could also play 2b on the rare days that Dunn sits with Freel in LF. Just need a CF.

If Aurilia gets too expensive, I wonder if Harris could play that role? Probably not backing up at SS, but could everything else I think. I hope he hits enough.

puca
09-04-2006, 01:37 PM
The Marlins would trade away everyone not bolted down that would fetch a top prospect(s). That would mean trading Arroyo and Freel along with Harang and Dunn. Hatteburg and Ross would also be goners if a decent offer were to be found. Problem is that the Marlin-model is not condusive to keeping fans - no matter how good the file-sale return is.

Besides I don't think the Reds have enough to trade to make it work. Don't be fooled. The Marlins got extreemly lucky (or maybe they are just that good), to hit on such a high percentage of their prospects.

mth123
09-04-2006, 01:39 PM
Well, in the AL two very young teams (Tigers, Twins) are also seeing tremendous success.

The Tigers have exceptional young pitching and a young CF that can go get 'em (remember those). But they are pretty veteran everywhere else including a 40 year old starter and an old cast-off leading the AL in Saves. Ordonez, Polanco, Guillen and even Inge need to be considered veterans. The catcher is a future HOF. I'd love to follow the model they have, but getting that many good young pitchers will be hard to duplicate.

The Twins are a good example, but having Sanatana helps a lot. Maybe Krivsky can get some of their keepers instead of just the cast-offs.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 01:41 PM
Besides I don't think the Reds have enough to trade to make it work. Don't be fooled. The Marlins got extreemly lucky (or maybe they are just that good), to hit on such a high percentage of their prospects.

You've been a Reds' fan too long if you think it's difficult or impossible to get a Marlins-esque return on players--or that they're lucky for having torn down and rebuilt twice already and currently sit in the middle of rebuilding and contention # 3.

I don't think the Reds have to trade everything, necessarily; like I said, no reason at all to trade Arroyo given his contract status. But Harang is another matter, and so is Dunn, both of whom should ( I say should, but with Wayne you never know) bring back monster returns.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 01:42 PM
The Tigers have exceptional young pitching and a young CF that can go get 'em (remember those). But they are pretty veteran everywhere else including a 40 year old starter and an old cast-off leading the AL in Saves. Ordonez, Polanco, Guillen and even Inge need to be considered veterans. The catcher is a future HOF. I'd love to follow the model they have, but getting that many good young pitchers will be hard to duplicate.

The Twins are a good example, but having Sanatana helps a lot. Maybe Krivsky can get some of their keepers instead of just the cast-offs.

If Santana helps, then so does Willis.

We're splitting hairs here. The fact is, both the Tigers and Twins are overall pretty young teams.

MaineRed
09-04-2006, 01:51 PM
The Tigers are young?

Their ace is 41. Their closer is 37. Most of the position players are 29 or older. Their two catchers are 32 and 33. They do have some nice young pitchers but they are harldy the Marlins. This is a vet based team:

Kenny Rodgers, Todd Jones, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Dmitri Young, Sean Casey, Pudge, Placido Palanco. Even guys like Inge, Thames andn Monroe are 29.

The Twins are closer to the Marlins but it also helps when you have homegrown kids like Mauer and Liriano on top of what might be the best pitcher in baseball. The Reds can't trade Larue and bring up Joe Mauer and we can't dump Eric Milton and call up Francisco Liriano. The Twins are young but they still count on Luis Castillo, Torri Hunter, Brad Radke and Joe Nathan. At the start of the year they were counting on Rondell White.

If the Reds want to go with kids like the Marlins, Twins and Tigers, I think they should build up the farm system to match those teams first.

Homer Bailey
09-04-2006, 02:33 PM
I can't believe that no one has thrown out the idea of Freel playing in center everyday? I know that CF is usually a power position, but I think that if Freel plays RF everyday this year he wins a golf glove. I mean the guy gets to EVERYTHING. The same can obviously not be said for griffey. Move Griff to right (which won't sit well with him because he's arrogant and thinks he can still play center) and put that speedy little Farney in center and watch him compete with Andrew Jones to win a gold glove now that Edmonds is going down the tube.

Always Red
09-04-2006, 02:42 PM
For some of these guys being called up this weekend, it's going to be their last look.

I think the offseason is going to be a busy one. There are a lot of spare parts scattered between Cincinnati, Louisville and Chattanooga, parts that Krivsky and Castellini did not acquire. I look for a lot of them to be swapped for spare parts of other teams, maybe guys that Krivsky is more familiar with. I'll say this much for Kriv, the best guys that he has brought in have been the guys he was the most familiar with, the ex-Twins. He's had a season now to evaluate his own talent and see what he actually has, and if he likes it or not.

I think Castellini is a man of his word. He'll do what he has to do in order to win, sooner than later. If not this year (looking increasingly doubtful), then next year.

I try to always remember that he got control of this team just before spring training, and hired Kriv soon after. They have tried to shake this team up and change it's complexion as much as possible during the season, which is very hard to do if you are also trying to stay in contention. It would have been much easier to change this team if they'd have started the season out like the Royals did, for instance. Plus, needs ALWAYS cost more, in season. That's been a huge point of contention on this board since mid-July!

I look for a lot of dealing in the offseason. I would not be surprised at all to see anyone dealt off of this team- including Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Phillips and Encarnacion. Those 5 have to be the most desireable, and would bring back the most in return.

If I were Kriv, I'd make anyone available- including Votto, Bruce and, yes, even the legendary Homer Bailey. I'd rather see Homer in a Reds uniform winning 20 games, but boy, if we had a nickel for every hot shot AA pitcher that flamed out prior making it to the majors...

Bailey just might be worth more right now than he ever will be.

I'm not saying trade him, not at all. I'm saying make him (and everyone else) available and see what you can get back in return.

Kc61
09-04-2006, 02:58 PM
The only definite keepers for the Reds next year are, in my view:

Harang
Arroyo
Encarnacion
Phillips.


That's it. In particular, I don't believe the Reds can afford to just sit with Dunn, Griffey and Milton given their high salaries and (yes, I'll say it) production levels. I'm not saying they're goners, just don't be shocked if any of them go. Also, Freel is not a lock. Reds could be offered a lot for Freel.

This is a new GM and the "givens" may not be given anymore. The core may change.

Razor Shines
09-04-2006, 03:27 PM
I hope they re-sign Rich and then try to trade him and Hatte for some pitching, even if it's prospects. I can't see Hatte producing like he has this year, and Rich might have a decent season next year, but IMHO the value of both those guys is as high as it's ever going to be. I might even throw David Ross in there too, but I'd be slightly more reluctant considering he's only 28 and maybe he just took a little longer to figure it out.

Dunnomite
09-04-2006, 03:34 PM
Well, in the AL two very young teams (Tigers, Twins) are also seeing tremendous success.

Detroits average age is 29, not very young.... 19 in mlb

Shaggy Sanchez
09-04-2006, 03:52 PM
The Twins are closer to the Marlins but it also helps when you have homegrown kids like Mauer and Liriano on top of what might be the best pitcher in baseball. The Reds can't trade Larue and bring up Joe Mauer and we can't dump Eric Milton and call up Francisco Liriano. The Twins are young but they still count on Luis Castillo, Torri Hunter, Brad Radke and Joe Nathan. At the start of the year they were counting on Rondell White.

If the Reds want to go with kids like the Marlins, Twins and Tigers, I think they should build up the farm system to match those teams first.

The Twins got Liriano as a throw in from the Giants in the Nathan deal. Those are the deals that Krivsky needs to be finding for the Reds to get better.

puca
09-04-2006, 04:10 PM
You've been a Reds' fan too long if you think it's difficult or impossible to get a Marlins-esque return on players--or that they're lucky for having torn down and rebuilt twice already and currently sit in the middle of rebuilding and contention # 3.

I don't think the Reds have to trade everything, necessarily; like I said, no reason at all to trade Arroyo given his contract status. But Harang is another matter, and so is Dunn, both of whom should ( I say should, but with Wayne you never know) bring back monster returns.

When the Marlins tear down the completely tear down. They don't hit at 100% success on all their trades (Nate Bump/Jason Grilli and Vald Nunez come to mind). They rebuild through shear volume. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they miss. I'm not saying the Reds can't get 'Marlin-esque' return for Harang, but sometimes that return is Nate Bump and Jason Grilli.

I would argue that a bigger key to the Marlins success is that they actually develop players. 2/5ths of their staff is home grown (Johnson and Olsen), and Willis was grown from a 'A' prospect. They have out drafted and developed the Reds. That is the area where the Reds should be looking to model themselves after the Marlins.

WVRedsFan
09-04-2006, 04:12 PM
Back For Sure (14)
Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Harang, Brandon Phillips (at SS), Ryan Freel (as a Roving 80% of the time player), Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg (Just signed), Eric Milton (Stuck with him), Ken Griffey Jr (Stuck with him but in RF:pray: ), Javier Valentin (Just signed), Bill Bray (Trade Justification), Gary Majewski (Trade Justification), Rheal Cormier (probably Stuck), Todd Coffey

I'm not so sure Milton will be around next year as well as Cormier. We'll see. And Freel can and will be trade bait. See below.


Others I'd Keep (5)
Rich Aurilia (at a reasonable price as a roving 80% of the time player), Kyle Lohse (at 80% of current pay), David Weathers (on a deal same as this year), Brendon Harris, Brian Shackelford (cheap loogy)

Rich will go with the highest bidder after the season he's had and we won't go the price. He's gone. The others are only going to be around if there is nothing better out there. In fact, I don't expect to see any of them in a Reds uniform next year.


Trade Bait
David Ross (sell High), Jason Larue (Payflex), Matt Belisle, Jason Standridge, Elizardo Ramirez, Chris Denorfia (blasphemy I know), William Bergolla

If we deal Ross, we have no catcher. I doubt that we'll do that. Larue, Belisle, Standridge and Denorfia should be dealt and I'm sure Krivsky will try, but what is their real worth? Not much, I'd say. Add Freel to this list. He could probably fetch a couple of good prospects and my guess that the FO feels the same way considering his non-production late in the season.


Goodbye
Kent Mercker, Juan Castro, Royce Clayton, Todd Hollandsworth, Scott Schoenweiss ( I like him but we are stuck with lots of lefties and can use the money elsewhere), Ryan Franklin, Paul Wilson, Chris Michalek, Joe Mays, Eddie Guardado

I agree with the exception of Castro. Krivsky and most of the Reds organization loves him. He'll be back. As for the others, I do not expect the Reds to try to sign any of them except Guardado.


Injury Comebacks to Gamble With
Grant Balfour, Brandon Claussen

Only Claussen. And he may even fail. After two arm surgeries and his seming ability to make more pitches than a batting practice appliance, I don't expect much from him ever again. In fact, both of them may be selling cars this time next year. We may never see these two again, somewhat like Paul Wilson, RCast's "savior" from earlier in the year.


Contributers from the Minors
Rey Olmedo (In Castro's role), Homer Bailey (at mid-season), Joey Votto (at Mid-season), Probably one or more of several relievers that I don't know enough about (Shafer, Coutlangus, Medlock, etc).

Olmedo will never spend a full season on the roster. That's Castro's job. Bailey and Votto won't see the roster next year until this time of year. They seem to be moving these kids along slow. As for the relievers, it will depend on how they do in spring training.


I see a need at Starting Pitcher, Closer, CF (who has power, range and plays good defense) and maybe catcher but probably either Larue or Ross will be back. Although both Milton and Griffey are on bad contracts, I wouldn't just give them away for payflex (I would Larue). Even with the flaws they have, it would cost a lot to replace Griffey and even Milton.

You missed shortstop and/or second base. If Phillips moves to short (and I really do not expect that), we'll need a dependable second baseman and visa-versa. And if you get that CF, you need to move Freel somewhere else (maybe second?). I disagree that Junior's contract was bad. Look at what they are paying lesser (and I mean this) outfielders these days. Junior's contract is low compared to them. I'd DFA Milton and eat his salary.


Hatteberg and Aurilia are keepers while in contention and if they are playing well. Otherwise they move to the bench or could be traded with their roles going to Votto and Harris.

With the money going out and the new TV deal, there should be some money available to add some impact players. CF and Closer are probably more realistic than a starter who is an improvement and who will be worth the money.

Watch Hatt go back to career norms, meaning a new first baseman is needed. Not knocking Scott, but you just can't depend on him hitting .300 next year.

Good post and thought provoking.

mth123
09-04-2006, 04:49 PM
I can't believe that no one has thrown out the idea of Freel playing in center everyday? I know that CF is usually a power position, but I think that if Freel plays RF everyday this year he wins a golf glove. I mean the guy gets to EVERYTHING. The same can obviously not be said for griffey. Move Griff to right (which won't sit well with him because he's arrogant and thinks he can still play center) and put that speedy little Farney in center and watch him compete with Andrew Jones to win a gold glove now that Edmonds is going down the tube.

This wouldn't be the worst thing, but I think if this were going to happen it already would have. They need to add a player with Pop who can play defense and I think they are more likely to get that in CF than at 2B or SS. Moving Freel and signing a CF seems more doable. I also like Freel in a roving role with some time off each week. Penciling him in as an everyday starter at a certain position seems to eventually get you to the type of stats he has had this August. At 2B you have Harris or Aurilia also getting time and it leaves Freel available to spell Griffey once a week or so.

Aronchis
09-04-2006, 04:51 PM
If the Reds rebuild from bottom up. Dunn,Harang and Arroyo all must go as their ages become restrictive unlike say if the Limiteds sold in 03-04. All the older expensive players would be gone as well.

Falls City Beer
09-04-2006, 05:35 PM
When the Marlins tear down the completely tear down. They don't hit at 100% success on all their trades (Nate Bump/Jason Grilli and Vald Nunez come to mind). They rebuild through shear volume. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they miss. I'm not saying the Reds can't get 'Marlin-esque' return for Harang, but sometimes that return is Nate Bump and Jason Grilli.

I would argue that a bigger key to the Marlins success is that they actually develop players. 2/5ths of their staff is home grown (Johnson and Olsen), and Willis was grown from a 'A' prospect. They have out drafted and developed the Reds. That is the area where the Reds should be looking to model themselves after the Marlins.

Building a farm is the given.

What the team does while it grows up is largely what's going to keep the fans around. So they should get crackin' and not wait on Godot to arrive.

REDREAD
09-07-2006, 07:18 PM
Kyle Lohse (at 80% of current pay),

It would be nice to get Lohse to accept a paycut, but I don't think we'll be able to push that through. He was healthy all year. He'll take us to arb if we try to cut his salary and probably win. Even though Lohse has nearly a 6 ERA for the year, very seldom do you get players who aren't injured to agree to a pay cut. In fact, I can't think of any right now. (although that doesn't mean it never happened).

The Reds have a tough decision on Lohse. He made about 4 million this year. I'm guessing it takes about 4.5 million to get him to come back. That might be cheaper than a comparable FA, but that's a pretty big gamble. Hopefully by the end of the season, we'll have a better read on what to expect out of the guy.

REDREAD
09-07-2006, 07:23 PM
I would argue that a bigger key to the Marlins success is that they actually develop players. 2/5ths of their staff is home grown (Johnson and Olsen), and Willis was grown from a 'A' prospect. They have out drafted and developed the Reds. That is the area where the Reds should be looking to model themselves after the Marlins.

Another advantage that the Marlins had during their teardowns, is that they had a lot of players that were above average to trade that contenders wanted and would pay a decent price for. Looking at the Reds' roster, I see Dunn, Arroyo, EdE, and Harang as the only "premium" guys. It seems as though the Marlins had about 7-8 premium guys to trade.

I think the Reds waited too long to trade Freel. Other teams are going to look at his disappearing act in August as well. Unless he plays well as a full timer next year, I think he's pretty much cemented his repuation as a part timer.

Falls City Beer
09-07-2006, 08:19 PM
It would be nice to get Lohse to accept a paycut, but I don't think we'll be able to push that through. He was healthy all year. He'll take us to arb if we try to cut his salary and probably win. Even though Lohse has nearly a 6 ERA for the year, very seldom do you get players who aren't injured to agree to a pay cut. In fact, I can't think of any right now. (although that doesn't mean it never happened).

The Reds have a tough decision on Lohse. He made about 4 million this year. I'm guessing it takes about 4.5 million to get him to come back. That might be cheaper than a comparable FA, but that's a pretty big gamble. Hopefully by the end of the season, we'll have a better read on what to expect out of the guy.

If the Reds sign Lohse for 4.5 million they will have flushed 4.5 million right down the toilet.

The guy is fool's gold.

vaticanplum
09-07-2006, 09:19 PM
Which team out there is likely to (a) have two young, promising, on the verge of being almost-MLB ready arms and (2) be willing to give them up and (III) be willing to trade them for Harrang?

Sounds like quintessential trade deadline bait to me. I would think it's much less likely to happen in the offseason. I also tend to think that such a trade is a lot less likely to happen now after the Washington trade, because a) Krivsky would take an enormous amount of heat for something that would be perceived (note that I said perceived) as a similar deal, and b) that trade, said to me, at least, that Krivsky wants to hang onto Dunn (don't forget that one of the first things he did was give him a contract extension as well), and I think Harang is even less likely to go than Dunn.

Apart from that, though, if Krivsky hangs around for awhile I would not be surprised to see him make a fair share of deals like this. I don't think he's afraid of prospects and I don't think he will cling too dearly to any player who's making tons of money if he can be even nearly replaced at a lower cost. This is taking into consideration both the ballclub he helped manage before and the financial constraints of the one he's managing now. I think this is a good thing in theory...I just hope he finds good enough prospects to justify it.

edit: Wow, I said "less likely" three times in that first paragraph. Freudian...maybe my optimism is waning.

Z-Fly
09-08-2006, 01:32 PM
The Twins got Liriano as a throw in from the Giants in the Nathan deal. Those are the deals that Krivsky needs to be finding for the Reds to get better.

EE was a throw in on the Rob Bell/Ruben Mateo deal.......

Does this mean bring back Jimbo.

Shaggy Sanchez
09-08-2006, 01:41 PM
EE was a throw in on the Rob Bell/Ruben Mateo deal.......

Does this mean bring back Jimbo.

Maybe if you would have read the entire post you would see that I was correcting a statement that Liriano was a homegrown product of Minnesota. I don't see where it has anything to do with Jimbo.

OldXOhio
09-08-2006, 02:06 PM
Scott Schoenweiss ( I like him but we are stuck with lots of lefties and can use the money elsewhere)

Haven't we argued for years on here that money needs to continually be spent on improving the pitching? Amidst some of the dreck WK's brought in, SS has been a nice find.