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jamess697
09-11-2006, 05:19 PM
Who is next years 5th starter in an overachieving rotation?

A few ideas I had
Elizardo-had a decent stretch this year, but got hurt, and he isn't consistant
Claussen-injury from this year may cost him-possibly back to pen
Kim-I hope not!
Michalek-too old-I think he had only one good big league game in him
Jason Johnson-See above about Kim!
Milton/Lohse-do we go after a big name pitcher which would push one of these guys down
Homer-possibly at the end of season-but not opening day

Always Red
09-11-2006, 05:27 PM
Here's an idea I like: bring in a new guy, another #3-4 type, and push Milty and Lohse down to #4-5 slots. Heck, if you've got $$ to throw around, bring in a #1.

Homer starts off year in AAA. If Lohse falters (and I think he is the leading candidate to do so), bring Homer up in May/June. Move Lohse to relief.

I think Lohse would be an excellent closer; he's got live stuff, throws hard, and has a nasty type attitude. He wants to be a starter; I understand that and would give him every opportunity to do so. Bt if he can't make it as a starter, then go with him in the bullpen.

That way you don't have to count on Homer right out of the gate.

Who's the free agent pitcher? IDK, you tell me!

RedsManRick
09-11-2006, 05:41 PM
I agree (and have changed my mind on this recently). The price for Zito/Schmidt is likely to be crazy and not worth it. I'd go for a reasonable deal for Gil Meche or Vicente Padilla and open with Harang, Arroyo, FA, Milton, Lohse with Homer in Louisville.

dabvu2498
09-11-2006, 05:44 PM
Who's the free agent pitcher? IDK, you tell me!

Tomo Ohka gets my vote.

Always Red
09-11-2006, 05:45 PM
Tomo Ohka gets my vote.

I'd like that; plus he's a Reds killer and we wouldn't have to deal with him next year.

VI_RedsFan
09-11-2006, 05:48 PM
I agree (and have changed my mind on this recently). The price for Zito/Schmidt is likely to be crazy and not worth it. I'd go for a reasonable deal for Gil Meche or Vicente Padilla and open with Harang, Arroyo, FA, Milton, Lohse with Homer in Louisville.

That is a very good idea. Going after Schmidt is dumb considering he's on the wrong side of 30 and his velocity is going down. I'd consider a Dunn for Bonderman plus a prospect or two deal that Krusty mentioned in another thread. That could push Lohse (His performance in a Red's uniform combined with his stuff and age automatically puts him in the rotation for next year) and Milton to the 4/5 slots with Bonderman being the #3. That gives a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Bonderman
Lohse
Milton

That looks like a solid rotation to me. I'm in the crowd that says that this team does not need an ace to have success. Harang, Arroyo, and Bonderman can combine to be our "ace."

Joseph
09-11-2006, 06:44 PM
Who are your 1-4 in this example?

redsfanmia
09-11-2006, 07:20 PM
I dont think that we want to start Homer's arbitration clock next year when we could run out EZ again. I really think that we could win with a rotation of :
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Loshe
4. Homer
5. Milton

UC_Ken
09-11-2006, 08:00 PM
Homer dominated AA this year. Unless he has a horrible spring he's earned the right to be in the rotation next year. I'm in the camp that thinks Milton's pitched well but if you could trade him to a pitcher's park we could spend the 9 mil better in other spots.

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. FA addition/Trade (I like the Padilla idea)
5. Homer

I'm putting Homer at 5 because it gives us the options to skip some starts and limit his innings to whatever the number is supposed to be for someone his age.

BigRed
09-11-2006, 08:32 PM
Arroyo
Harang
Free Agent
Lohse
Milton

We could do worse than that. I think that they definitely need to go after an established closer since Eddie is out all next year.

guttle11
09-11-2006, 08:44 PM
Ohka would be the most reasonable FA choice. I don't have stats in front of me, but he seems like a heavy groundball pitcher when he's on.

flyer85
09-11-2006, 08:49 PM
Reds should take a look at Ted Lilly

johngalt
09-11-2006, 08:53 PM
Arroyo and Harang are givens. Those two take the top two spots.

I really think the Reds are going to make a run for a very good FA pitcher. I haven't taken a close look at possibilities, but I see them signing one guy who can make something of an impact.

Given his track record with Krivsky in Minnesota, I think you'll see Lohse back to start the year in '07 as well. I think there's a very good chance he tosses an ERA up around 4.00 over a full season in the NL and could even do better given his stuff and age.

The last spot is interesting. I think the Reds will make another run at trying to deal Milton this offseason to get rid of that final year of the deal. If they are successful, I think you'll see them sign another vet to start in the fifth spot. In either instance, I'd say you'll see Milton for the new vet start until around the end of June/early July and then be moved to the bullpen or dealt to turn the spot over to Homer Bailey. This lets you get a free half year or so out of Bailey as far as arbitration goes while also giving him some time against AAA hitters.

johngalt
09-11-2006, 08:54 PM
Reds should take a look at Ted Lilly

I'm in total agreement on that one. Decent strikeout rate from a lefty works for me.

Tom Servo
09-11-2006, 08:59 PM
Reds should take a look at Ted Lilly
Theodore Roosevelt Lilly for Reds in 07

Strikes Out Looking
09-11-2006, 09:19 PM
Make Bronson happy: 4 man rotation in '07

Falls City Beer
09-11-2006, 09:21 PM
Reds should take a look at Ted Lilly

And not take a second look at Lohse. Or if they do take a second look at Lohse, lowball the hell out of him. The thought of paying him over 4 million makes me want to vomit.

Falls City Beer
09-11-2006, 09:24 PM
The Reds' biggest failure this season is not dumping Milton. He needs to be gone next season--at the start of next season.

Will M
09-11-2006, 09:55 PM
Ted Lilly is a flyball pitcher similar to Milton

Flyball pitchers don't do well at GABP

- Will

Will M
09-11-2006, 10:00 PM
Harang
Arroyo
?
Lohse ( if he continues to pitch well his last ~5 starts )
EZ , Claussen or Bailey: whoever wins the job in spring training

The ? revolves around Milton. Milton is an OK pitcher who is in the wrong ballpark for his style ( flyball pitcher ). He would do MUCH better in LA, San Diego, Washington, etc

IF we can trade Milton then the 3rd starter slot will be much stronger.
I don't expect Zito or Schmidt but we could make a run at a free agent starter like Ohka or even trading for someone who could be a decent #3 ( 200+ IP and a sub 4.00 ERA )

- Will

Casey_21
09-11-2006, 10:04 PM
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Lizard

Get Clausen gone... Please.

Falls City Beer
09-11-2006, 10:05 PM
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Lohse
4. Milton
5. Lizard

Get Clausen gone... Please.


So you're saying we shouldn't improve a terrible rotation?

Great idea.

Next year's rotation better look almost nothing like this year's, or this team is toast.

Casey_21
09-11-2006, 10:10 PM
So you're saying we shouldn't improve a terrible rotation?

Great idea.

I really dont see anything wrong with it. It seems most the games we lost this year is because of relief, and failure to produce runs, wich is terrible. There is no reason for that with the line-up we have.

Falls City Beer
09-11-2006, 10:14 PM
I really dont see anything wrong with it. It seems most the games we lost this year is because of relief, and failure to produce runs, wich is terrible. There is no reason for that with the line-up we have.

The only truly reliable arm in the rotation is Arroyo, and even he had a down month. Harang has put up some good numbers, but also some deceptively bad numbers, and doesn't weather particularly well over the course of a season.

And those are the good things. Everyone else in your proposed rotation either currently sucks or has sucked for so many years, I've lost count. Either way, when 60% of your rotation reside in the bottom 10% of all starters, you've got a ton of work to do.

flyer85
09-11-2006, 10:31 PM
I wouldn't mind taking a chance on F. Cordero as closer

Casey_21
09-11-2006, 10:34 PM
The only truly reliable arm in the rotation is Arroyo, and even he had a down month. Harang has put up some good numbers, but also some deceptively bad numbers, and doesn't weather particularly well over the course of a season.

And those are the good things. Everyone else in your proposed rotation either currently sucks or has sucked for so many years, I've lost count. Either way, when 60% of your rotation reside in the bottom 10% of all starters, you've got a ton of work to do.

Lol... True that, FCB. I know they had their ups and downs, and though Harang would be a 3rd starter at best on any contending club, and Arroyo wasnt a starter period on the Sox, they are the best we have. What do you suggest we do to improve it, get rid of the best two we have? That don't make alot of sense, either. Nor is it something the Reds will do. The rest, I agree, arent too great, to say the least, or they are washed up. I dont see us getting much out of a trade, either.. unless we traded Dunner. As a fan favorite, that wouldnt go down too well. There aint much on the market right now for good pitching. We all know Kriv's is good, and still... look what we got stuck with. We can't afford callibur pitching. I say we work with what we got, and see what happens.

Falls City Beer
09-11-2006, 10:37 PM
Lol... True that, FCB. I know they had their ups and downs, and though Harang would be a 3rd starter at best on any contending club, and Arroyo wasnt a starter period on the Sox, they are the best we have. What do you suggest we do to improve it, get rid of the best two we have? That don't make alot of sense, either. Nor is it something the Reds will do. The rest, I agree, arent too great, to say the least, or they are washed up. I dont see us getting much out of a trade, either.. unless we traded Dunner. As a fan favorite, that wouldnt go down too well. There aint much on the market right now for good pitching. We all know Kriv's is good, and still... look what we got stuck with. We can't afford callibur pitching. I say we work with what we got, and see what happens.

It's time to trade Dunn and start patchworking the offense till some of the kids arrive from the farm.

It beats patchworking the rotation and throwing away great offensive efforts from the kids, as the Reds have done now for years.

Start with a dominating rotation and see where that gets you. My guess: a lot farther than a great offense and no pitching.

Casey_21
09-11-2006, 10:47 PM
Dunn's gonna remain a Red... He brings in the cheddar, and puts (_(_) in the seats. ;)

mth123
09-11-2006, 11:35 PM
Harang
Arroyo
?
Lohse ( if he continues to pitch well his last ~5 starts )
EZ , Claussen or Bailey: whoever wins the job in spring training

The ? revolves around Milton. Milton is an OK pitcher who is in the wrong ballpark for his style ( flyball pitcher ). He would do MUCH better in LA, San Diego, Washington, etc

IF we can trade Milton then the 3rd starter slot will be much stronger.
I don't expect Zito or Schmidt but we could make a run at a free agent starter like Ohka or even trading for someone who could be a decent #3 ( 200+ IP and a sub 4.00 ERA )

- Will

While I agree that Milton would be better in SD or LA, so would just about any pitcher not already pitching there. What makes you think that SD or LA would trade for Milton at $9 Million when they could get any number of guys off any number of teams?

I think we are stuck with Milty until mid-season when his contract becomes less of a commitment. That's ok by me. He can be traded when Bailey is ready to take his spot and we'll probably get a prospect as well.

This is not in response to the poster quoted above but just a general thought. There are 150 rotation spots in MLB. There are not 150 pitchers better than Milton. There just aren't. Its unreasonable to think he can be replaced so easiliy and it would be a waste of a chip and some cash to DFA the guy.

Spitball
09-12-2006, 12:28 AM
I believe Krivsky is a shrewd builder, and if Dunn is dealt, WK would trade with a team capable of filling more than one need. I would think he would target the Angels' system and their desire to add power to meet this need.

For Dunn, they may over pay. Imagine a package headed by Ervin Santana. He has absolutely electric stuff with late movement down in the zone. They don't seem to appreciate this guy with their ability to sign free agent pitchers and the coming of Jered Weaver. I like this guy more than Bonderman and the Angels might be willing to throw in more.

Erick Aybar is buried behind Orlando Cabrera and his long term contract. Offensively, he has a chance to be the next Rafael Furcal, except he has the potential to be a better defensive player. He would be the other key.

I'd also extort Chone Figgins and a bullpen arm like Scot Shields.

If Dunn goes, it should fill multiple holes with quality players who will be in Cincinnati for a number of years. That seems to be Krivsky's mode of operation.

.

Highlifeman21
09-12-2006, 12:58 AM
It's time to trade Dunn and start patchworking the offense till some of the kids arrive from the farm.

It beats patchworking the rotation and throwing away great offensive efforts from the kids, as the Reds have done now for years.

Start with a dominating rotation and see where that gets you. My guess: a lot farther than a great offense and no pitching.

So who do we get for Dunn, realistically?

We trade Dunn to a NL team, and he beats us. We trade Dunn to an AL team, and what top line pitching is realistically available on teams that could feasibly use/need Dunn?

I don't see us drastically upgrading our pitching by trading Dunn. I think his value is greatest remaining on our roster.

Start with Arroyo and Harang, and build from there. I agree that Milton needs to be gone in the offseason, and Lohse is honestly best served as our closer next year, but that leaves us with 3 rotation holes to fill, and I don't see all of them being filled AND upgraded via FA. I haven't given up on Claussen yet, but I know many have. The Lizard is done in my book, so who, realistically, does that leave us with options for the rotation?

fewfirstchoice
09-12-2006, 01:05 AM
GUys i believe everyone is selling Loshe way short on what he is capable of.He is a 27 year old pitcher who throws the ball 93-94 mph and has mad movement on the ball,also his changeup is looking better and better to me.I believe he has the ability to be a good solid 3 man in the rotation and possibly a 2 man.NExt time he pitches (if he is on that game) just watch the swings other batters take against him and late they swing the bat.The kid can pitch guys.

buckeyenut
09-12-2006, 06:23 AM
And not take a second look at Lohse. Or if they do take a second look at Lohse, lowball the hell out of him. The thought of paying him over 4 million makes me want to vomit.

Given his stuff and the way he has pitched since coming over, this doesn't make sense to me. Why would we throw Lohse under the bus? I understand he won't be as good as he has been. But what is it about him that makes you think he can't be a good #4 starter?

mth123
09-12-2006, 07:44 AM
And not take a second look at Lohse. Or if they do take a second look at Lohse, lowball the hell out of him. The thought of paying him over 4 million makes me want to vomit.

I'm on the fence here. Lohse has 5 years of mediocre to bad pitching in the AL and 5 weeks of good pitching for the Reds. I think he is deserving of a number 4 or 5 spot somewhere in MLB if for no other reason than there are not enough quality pitchers around to fill 150 Major League rotation spots. His bad years were at a young age. He has stuff. He has upside. And although he has been labeled a problem child by some, he seems to have some fire in his belly which I like.

Given these facts, I want him back but agree with the low ball approach. Maybe $3.25 (can't go much lower with the 80% rule? Right?) with some incentives that can get him to $5 or $6 Million, which is more than he could get on the market. If he hits the incentives, he'll be worth it. Don't want to gamble $4.5 to $5 Million guaranteed (which is what it may take) on a question mark like this.

When there isn't enough food to go around, even some stuff you wouldn't normally eat starts tasting a little better to you. That may be what we have to face with Lohse and Milton.

SultanOfSwing
09-12-2006, 10:20 AM
I agree with several of the posts here. I do believe Krivsky will try to move Milton in the off-season. And trust me, there will be plenty of offers. It only boils down to how they benefit us. I really think Krivsky will move Milton no matter what. It is the last year of the contract, and if you could draw in a Padilla/Okha type for less, why not. If we pay part of the salary, probably $3-5 million, we could get a decent return. To just dump the salary, don't expect much.

I to believe Dunn will be actively shopped, and probably traded. I really like Dunn, but the return we could get for him is huge. I have always thought the Angels and Tigers would be a perfect fit for him. The Angels could give us more of what we need though. Some on this board tend to undervalue Dunn pointing to his strikeouts and BA. Others overvalue him. The truth lies somewhere in between. The bottom line is, Dunn is an incredible offensive weapon. Name active players who are putting up their 3rd consecutive 40HR, 100RBI, 100RS, 100Walk season. And are under 27. There is only one. No matter his batting average other teams realize that and covet him. It is interesting to visit other fan forums. They all covet Dunn and would give up almost anything to get him. It would probably be realistic to expect a Santana/Ayabar, etc. type return from the Angels, especially if we packaged more - say Denorfia or a catcher.

I don't think Griffey will be shopped, but Krivsky will listen to offers. I love Griffey, but if we could move him and sign Hunter or get Wells, that would be amazing.

I think LaRue will be gone by Opening Day 2007. You might even be surprised by the return.

Just a few thoughts off the top of my head.

Oh! And I would love to aggressively go after Gagne and Kerry Wood in the off-season. Give them low-risk, high-reward incentive-laden contracts to be in the bullpen. Unfortunately, other teams will have the same idea, and they will get overpaid. But it would definitely be worth a shot. Also see what Mark Prior would cost us in a trade. Denorfia for Prior? Just be really careful with Prior and give him all the time he needs to recover and only put him in the bullpen.

MississippiRed
09-12-2006, 11:55 AM
It seems to me that the most important criteria for GABP is a pitcher who gets outs via the ground ball. This requires a SS, however. It won't do any good to have a ground ball pitcher unless we have a SS with ++ range. (I was sick that the Cubs got Izturis. If I were Krivsky, I would be building my team around Brandon Phillips, a good defensive SS, and some pitchers with a 2 to 1 ratio of ground balls to fly balls. Of course, K's are nice, it's what happens when we don't get the K's that is of concern.)

Ohka would be a good choice. Trade Milton plus some others for Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb or some younger version of those guys. I'm not an expert on other team's players, ours either for that matter, but I would be searching all AL teams for sinker/slider pitchers with live arms. I wouldn't be concerned as much with their records. Bring in 4 or 5 of these guys, throw them against the wall, and see which one(s) stick.

Michael

BRM
09-12-2006, 12:47 PM
Next year's rotation better look almost nothing like this year's, or this team is toast.

I agree. The Reds really need to find two new starters and force one of Milton or Lohse to the bullpen or out of town.

Kc61
09-12-2006, 01:05 PM
I agree. The Reds really need to find two new starters and force one of Milton or Lohse to the bullpen or out of town.

Lohse, over his career, is about neutral between ground outs and fly outs. This year, with the Reds, he's managed to cause more ground outs than fly outs.

Milton is an extreme fly ball pitcher and has been throughout his career.

Lohse is a better fit for the Reds.

klw
09-12-2006, 02:13 PM
1. Zito
2. Matsuzuka
3. Arroyo
4. Pettite
5. Harang

Closer- Smoltz

vaticanplum
09-12-2006, 02:18 PM
The price for Zito/Schmidt is likely to be crazy and not worth it.

I hear this a lot and I'd like to get a better feel for what people mean by this in context. These are two of the best pitchers in baseball and only seem to be getting better. The combination of Harang/Arroyo/Zito, for example, with the potential of an even deeper rotation than that within a couple of years, makes me feel faint. You get Zito or Schmidt and immediately this is a different team. It wins more games, obviously, by virtue of the quality of the starting pitching and the weight lifted off the bullpen, but it also commands more respect and attracts better players and larger numbers of fans (ideally).

The idea of the "price not being worth it" is where I get a little lost. Someone like Barry Zito is one of the few pitchers whom I believe is actually worth what he will end up getting paid, given the current market. Eric Milton: now there's an example of a pitcher for whom the price is "crazy and not worth it". The question for me, then, is whether the Reds can afford such a pitcher. With their current budget, no. It would cost too much money and force us to probably have to undersell our other great players. Is that what people mean when they say this? I agree with that. But if Castellini suddenly coughs up a bunch of cash -- and I do not put that past him -- then this is absolutely the kind of player I think we should target. They're not just names; they're difference-making starting pitchers. The price for them is not inherently "crazy and not worth it", although the price for the Reds may be.

vaticanplum
09-12-2006, 02:22 PM
and Arroyo wasnt a starter period on the Sox

Arroyo was a starter with Boston, usually #4 throughout the course of his career there. There was talk of putting him in the bullpen before this season, but nothing was definite yet, and with the injuries they've had there's no question he would have been back in the starting rotation pretty quickly even if he had begun the season in the bullpen.

SultanOfSwing
09-12-2006, 02:42 PM
I hear this a lot and I'd like to get a better feel for what people mean by this in context. These are two of the best pitchers in baseball and only seem to be getting better. The combination of Harang/Arroyo/Zito, for example, with the potential of an even deeper rotation than that within a couple of years, makes me feel faint. You get Zito or Schmidt and immediately this is a different team. It wins more games, obviously, by virtue of the quality of the starting pitching and the weight lifted off the bullpen, but it also commands more respect and attracts better players and larger numbers of fans (ideally).

The idea of the "price not being worth it" is where I get a little lost. Someone like Barry Zito is one of the few pitchers whom I believe is actually worth what he will end up getting paid, given the current market. Eric Milton: now there's an example of a pitcher for whom the price is "crazy and not worth it". The question for me, then, is whether the Reds can afford such a pitcher. With their current budget, no. It would cost too much money and force us to probably have to undersell our other great players. Is that what people mean when they say this? I agree with that. But if Castellini suddenly coughs up a bunch of cash -- and I do not put that past him -- then this is absolutely the kind of player I think we should target. They're not just names; they're difference-making starting pitchers. The price for them is not inherently "crazy and not worth it", although the price for the Reds may be.

I understand what you are saying, but the others are right. Schmidt is getting older and declining. You do not want to pay him $15+ million per year for 3+ years, especially someone like the Reds. Pretend he wins 20 games for the next 3 years at $18 million a year. Would we not be better off spending that 18 on say Torii Hunter and Vincente Padilla, who will probably win 15+ games a year? The Schmidt and Zito money handcuffs you for years to come.

And too, I lot of people (myself included) believe Zito to be over-rated to some extent. Yes he is very good and Cy Young winner. But he isn't can't miss. But he will get can't miss money. Can't miss guys are Santana, Halladay, Kazmir, Webb, Oswalt, Carpenter, etc. It seems that the price of Zito and Schmidt is bloated because of the lack of top-quality starters in this year's FA.

I truly we believe we are better served paying for 2 #3-4 type starters, an OF and BP help, than one great starter who at best wins 22 games.

vaticanplum
09-12-2006, 02:49 PM
I truly we believe we are better served paying for 2 #3-4 type starters, an OF and BP help, than one great starter who at best wins 22 games.

And that's the crux of the argument. I think you may well be right here, especially given that Harang and Arroyo are good enough to occupy the 1-2 spots for a few years. So is Zito the best way to spend our money? Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the other options. I simply disagree though that he isn't worth a lot of money, period. I agree with some of your points about Schmidt, but I do not think Zito is overrated. he's what, 29 years old or something, he's had an excellent year, he's a southpaw, and he's healthy. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't continue on a stellar path for a good while. Any team in baseball would be helped by a great starter who "at best wins 22 games". There are enough factors already against Zito going to a team like the Reds; if they could come up with a decent amount extra money and convince him, I can't think of anybody who wouldn't think that wasn't a major coup for the Reds, as long as it wasn't greatly at the expense of other players on the team.

Will M
09-12-2006, 05:32 PM
WILL be overpayed.

Look at BJ Ryan last year. Not to say he is a bad player ( he is a good player ) but he got a bad contract. He actually had a good year for the Blue Jays. Now look at AJ Burnett...

The free agent market is NOT the place for a small/mid market team to build their team. It can be a place to fill a hole or two but you can't expect to win by outbidding the big boys ( who have LOTS more money than you ) in the free agent market.

I think that the Reds will sign a player or two, they just need to find the right player at the right price.

- Will

flyer85
09-14-2006, 01:32 PM
Start with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey.

buckeyenut
09-16-2006, 10:11 AM
I still disagree completely with this approach. I believe this team and this city needs a guy like Schmidt to anchor everything. Drop Schmidt in the #1 spot and let him roll. Harang and Arroyo break camp as 2 and 3 with Milton and Lohse 4 and 5. Bailey, if he makes the team out of spring training breaks in out of the pen, to protect that golden arm and give him a chance to get used to ML hitters. If we need a spot start or two, maybe he gets it, maybe the Lizard does.

But I think if you spend the money to bring in Schmidt, you are done on the pitching staff and you focus the rest of your effort upgrading the offense.

mth123
09-17-2006, 10:26 AM
Since its the week-end I had some time to do a little more research:

1. Aaron Harang has allowed a BABIP of .334 in 2006. If that could "normalize" to the .290 range I think he would jump up a class and become the true #1 for this team. He needs a LT Contract in the offseason.

2. Bronson Arroyo has been a little lucky with a BABIP of .275. He has been marvelous down the stretch and has shown as a guy who could pitch in big games. He's cheap at less than $4 Million.

3. Eric Milton has been lucky at .269 BABIP in 2006. He has been acceptable as a bottom of the rotation pitcher who gets the team to the late innings often with a chance to win. He's way overpaid but you probably won't get a taker without eating the contract and then you'd be paying for a bigger question mark in that spot. He probably starts the year in the 2007 rotation and can hopefully be traded at the All-Star break with his contract expiring.

4. Kyle Lohse has put up a number of good starts the first time around the league. He got pounded in his start against SD which was his first start against a team for the second time. His BABIP with the Reds has been surprisingly unlucky at .350. With his stuff, athleticism and age he may be just as good a gamble as anyone. His last start wrecked his stats and he probably became more affordable. If his BABIP improves he could be OK in the middle of the rotattion. He should be brought back if the price is right. I wouldn't pay more than $3.5 Million. I would offer incentives that allow him to make more if he pitches well.

5. Elizardo Ramirez shoulder exam showed nothing serious. He put up a number of good starts in the middle of the season. He faltered at the end when the innings piled up and the shoulder ached. His BABIP was .323. He could also show improvement with just normal luck. He's 24 next year and still cheap.

6. Brandon Clausen had his shoulder cleaned out and supposedly will be ready to go in 2007. I'm not a big Claussen fan but he did have a BABIP of .332 and could improve if that moves to normal. (Maybe not enough.)

7. Homer Bailey should arrive in 2007 about the All Star break. Ideally the Reds will be in it, go get a starter during the season and keep Homer in the Pen in 2007. If they are not, Milton goes for sure and Homer takes his spot.

Add to this, the analysis that Cyclone did in the ORG that shows a BABIP of .320 with Griffey in CF and .286 when he isn't, the fact that the offense is lacking a bat big time, and that many position players appear worn down or overexposed (Freel, Hat, Dunn, Phillips) then you see that this team needs a position player in the worst way. Specifically one that can Play CF while adding offense and improving the defense and the pitching as a result. A good CF would provide some improvement from within.

I do think this team needs at least one more solid starter (two if Lohse isn't the answer) but if I have to choose spending money on a high quality CF or another Starter, I think they need the CF more. As this team is constructed right now, starting pitching is a bigger strength (less weak) than the offense, defense or the bullpen. If they can bring in the pitchers as well, I target Padilla (4.44 ERA in a similar park, in the AL with the DH against him and with a BABIP of .306) as RedsManRick suggested in another thread. He may cost $6 to $7 Million though.

If I can't sign both, I choose to sign the CF first. The problem may be that no good ones are available. Hunter and Cameron both have team options and may not be available. Aaron Rowand could be another option but I do not think its likely either. I want no part of Juan Pierre.

Always Red
09-17-2006, 01:34 PM
I still disagree completely with this approach. I believe this team and this city needs a guy like Schmidt to anchor everything. Drop Schmidt in the #1 spot and let him roll. Harang and Arroyo break camp as 2 and 3 with Milton and Lohse 4 and 5. Bailey, if he makes the team out of spring training breaks in out of the pen, to protect that golden arm and give him a chance to get used to ML hitters. If we need a spot start or two, maybe he gets it, maybe the Lizard does.

But I think if you spend the money to bring in Schmidt, you are done on the pitching staff and you focus the rest of your effort upgrading the offense.

Jason Schmidt?

What makes him an ace? IDK, when you look at his numbers, I'd put him between Arroyo and Harang for this year alone, and Harang at least is trending to become better than Schmidt.

Historically, Schmidt is 127-89 with a 3.90 ERA and a WHIP of 1.32. He's one 18 games once, 17 games once (3 and 4 years ago), and other than that, never more than 13 wins a year. Good numbers, certainly, and I'd consider Schmidt one of the better pitchers in the NL.

I'd love to see him be a Red, but I would not consider him to be any better than Harang and Arroyo. And he'll cost you a bundle of $$$; you'd probably pay twice as much for Schmidt as you would for Arroyo and Harang, and be getting similar production. But if money's no problem, I would not have a problem adding him to the staff at all.

cincrazy
09-17-2006, 01:48 PM
I don't think Schmidt has too many years left at a highly productive level. And moving from SBC Park (that's the name of the Giants stadium correct?) to Great American will make some kind of a difference. I just stay away from Schmidt, and even Zito. It's just way too much of a risk for a mid market team.

Will M
09-17-2006, 09:17 PM
Kenny Lofton & Dave Roberts. They both bat LH. Could start against rhp with Freel or Deno in CF against lhp

I also agree that we need depth. We have a lot of guys who are good in the right circumstances but wear down playing every day.

- Will

buckeyenut
09-19-2006, 07:43 AM
You guys, along with a look at his stats from thebaseballcube.com (http://www.thebaseballcube.com), have changed my mind on Schmidt. He is solid this year, but definitely on a downward curve that I want no part of.

Looking at the stats, I have also changed my mind on Barry Zito. Last year looks like an abberation now and he is much more in line with his historical norms. Given the likely 0.5-1.0 boost to his ERA just from being in the NL, Zito would be an excellent target. He is plenty young enough and just might have enough questions to bring the $$ down a little. He is worth the risk IMO.

I also agree completely that we need Jr in LF or RF from the start next year, not CF. That alone will help all of our pitchers. FA options there aren't pretty though. I think Freel/Denorfia might have to do the trick.

UC_Ken
09-20-2006, 12:09 AM
Arroyo has the right to demand a trade after being traded in the middle of a multi-year contract. Is there any indication if he's going to or not. Given is succesful year this seems like an opportunity to at least hit up the Reds to bump his salary.

Scrap Irony
09-20-2006, 12:13 AM
If I'm running the team and have the cash to spend, I'd do the following:

Deal Dunn to the Tigers or Angels. Demand Bonderman and a decent prospect from Detroit. Demand Santana and either Kendrick or Figgins from LA/ Anaheim/ Orange County. First to bites on the deal wins the services of a truly outstanding DH.

Pick up Gary Matthews, Jr., to play CF. Offer of 4 years/ $28 million should do the trick. Pick up Frank Cattalanotto to play RF. Two years at $12 million should make that happen. Offer Julio Lugo a three year $24 million contract and hope he accepts. Sign Tomo Ohka as a middle shelf starter (three years, $15 million). Sign Jason Marquis, too, but convert him to closer. (Same contract)

Total '07 FA expenditure: $31 million

After dealing Dunn, there's the $21 million mark-- with added TV revenue and the dumping of both the Kearns and Lopez contracts-- I think the owners would live with.

Deal Milton, LaRue (or Ross), assorted relievers, and allow our favorite ex-Giant to leave as well. Deal all you can for prospects and suspects. Accept salaries back in lieu of prospects if you must, but look primarily for lightning in the bottle comebacks and pray. Nothing to lose at this point.

With Junior in LF, Matthews in CF, and Cattalanotto/ Freel in RF, the D is very solid and both Denorfia and Freel can also play if Junior gets hurt. The IF D is extremely solid, with Phillips again playing 2B and Lugo at SS.

No ace, but, with the addition of Ohka and the pitcher from either the Angels or the Tigers, you've got four solid hurlers. Add Bailey to the mix as the fifth starter. (Little pressure and he's able to watch and learn from Harang and Arroyo for a full season.) Put Claussen in the pen as a middle reliever to start with. If he excels, try him as a set-up guy. He should have a solid career there. Ditto Lizard. Lots of options in the pen may mean a deal or two. Grab prospects and bench ballast. Pray for a Hatteberg rejuvenation.

Compete all year.

Simple, no?

mth123
09-20-2006, 12:19 AM
Arroyo has the right to demand a trade after being traded in the middle of a multi-year contract. Is there any indication if he's going to or not. Given is succesful year this seems like an opportunity to at least hit up the Reds to bump his salary.

He doesn't have enough Major League service time to demand a trade. The clause you are talking about is for players with at least 6 years major league time I believe. Whatever the number Arroyo doesn't have enough.

Will M
09-20-2006, 12:42 AM
1. Deal Dunn to the Tigers or Angels. Demand Bonderman and a decent prospect from Detroit. Demand Santana and either Kendrick or Figgins from LA/ Anaheim/ Orange County. First to bites on the deal wins the services of a truly outstanding DH.

I am ok with this. IMO the Tigers & Angels are the two teams that would want Dunn & could give us a young starter.

2. Pick up Gary Matthews, Jr., to play CF. Offer of 4 years/ $28 million should do the trick.

Whoa. Remember Matthews has had one good pre free agency year in a big time hitter park. Caution is in order.

3. Pick up Frank Cattalanotto to play RF. Two years at $12 million should make that happen.

Someone who hits lefty to split time with Freel is good.
Dave Roberts & Kenny Lofton are also worth a look.

4. Offer Julio Lugo a three year $24 million contract and hope he accepts.

I like Lugo as do LOTS of other teams. He won't come cheap.
If we could swing a deal with the Angels we wouldn't need Lugo.

5. Sign Tomo Ohka as a middle shelf starter (three years, $15 million).

ok

6. Sign Jason Marquis, too, but convert him to closer. (Same contract)

what??? Jason Marquis is terrible!

7. Deal Milton - ok

8. Deal LaRue (or Ross) - I really dislike LaRue's hitting, pitch calling & attitude. Ross/Valentine should catch in 2007

9. allow our favorite ex-Giant to leave as well.

why? whats wrong with keeping Aurillia in the same role he had this year?

- Will

blumj
09-20-2006, 12:44 AM
He doesn't have enough Major League service time to demand a trade. The clause you are talking about is for players with at least 6 years major league time I believe. Whatever the number Arroyo doesn't have enough.
Right, that clause only applies to players who sign free agent contracts, Arroyo signed an extension while still arbitration eligible. He has no right to demand a trade.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
09-20-2006, 04:33 AM
I dont think that we want to start Homer's arbitration clock next year when we could run out EZ again. I really think that we could win with a rotation of :
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Loshe
4. Homer
5. Milton
If Homers arbitration clock is a concern right now than he is not as good as we think and we are in trouble.