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NPCoach
09-12-2006, 10:04 PM
Many may disagree with this but I have to say it. IMO, the in-season trades made by Krivsky have been absolutely and positively crap. You can argue that Lohse has been a find and that's fine but the bottom line is the overall body of work regarding his in-season moves is really, really, really bad. I don't care that we didn't have to give up much or this or that. The bottom line is we didn't get quality in return and in most cases we got damaged goods. I will watch every game until the end and I won't give up hope but I am really frustrated with the same poor drafting, scouting, developing, stressing of fundamental baseball (my state championship teams in 05 and 06 were hands down more fundamentally sound), and trading for patch work veterans who if they make a dollar are overapaid. Maybe this regime will improve but I have seen enough of Krivsky to realize he has a long way to go. I continue to hold out hope that things will improve. I guess I just needed to vent. Thanks.

muethibp
09-12-2006, 10:07 PM
Not Ross, not Phillips. But most everything after June 1 has had some pretty questionable results.

VI_RedsFan
09-12-2006, 10:16 PM
Congratulations on being the 1,000 person to post a thread on this topic...

Get over it.

Falls City Beer
09-12-2006, 10:21 PM
Many may disagree with this but I have to say it. IMO, the in-season trades made by Krivsky have been absolutely and positively crap. You can argue that Lohse has been a find and that's fine but the bottom line is the overall body of work regarding his in-season moves is really, really, really bad. I don't care that we didn't have to give up much or this or that. The bottom line is we didn't get quality in return and in most cases we got damaged goods. I will watch every game until the end and I won't give up hope but I am really frustrated with the same poor drafting, scouting, developing, stressing of fundamental baseball (my state championship teams in 05 and 06 were hands down more fundamentally sound), and trading for patch work veterans who if they make a dollar are overapaid. Maybe this regime will improve but I have seen enough of Krivsky to realize he has a long way to go. I continue to hold out hope that things will improve. I guess I just needed to vent. Thanks.

I agree completely.

And never apologize for a perfectly legitimate position.

Shaknb8k
09-12-2006, 10:46 PM
Who are you wanting Krivsky to trade? This team was flat out terrible going into this year. Im talking 100 loss awful. They had 1 player who could land us anything worth while and there would be an uprising if he traded him. Pena landed us way more than his actual value and Kearns/Lopez might not have gotten market value but one could give you a good argument that there was hardly any market value in those two.

Dunn is the only player in Cincinnati right now who would land us something big and i believe we arent going to get what most people expect for him. And there is only one player in the minors who could land us something big, Bailey. That is a combined 2 players in the entire organization that could land us something big. There are a few others: Bruce, Votto, Harang, Ross, and a few more out there who could land us some good players but no players that are going to not cause an uprising from the fans.

What im getting at is Krivsky doesnt have anyone to trade. This season we have created some more prospects but not enough depth to legitimize trading some off and the players on the 25-man roster (excluding Dunn) arent going to get you hardly anything or atleast anything better than that player actually offers.

Redszone seems to forget that both sides have to agree to a trade. Many times your can pawn decent talent off onto a team for a much better return (see Braves). But no matter how you figure it your not going to pawn trash off on other teams unless your the Reds version 2000-2005. And so far all Krivsky has been able to do is trade trash.

NPCoach
09-12-2006, 11:04 PM
Oh, I agree we don't have a lot of trade but that's part of my problem with the Reds. Why trade to trade. No doubt they made these trades because they thought they would help the team. If you don't have anything to trade, thus, not expecting much in return when you do trade then just stand pat. The Reds had to have added payroll with the guys they have added over the last three or four months. Why not stand pat and keep the money back for someone productive who can actually help in 2007.

NPCoach
09-12-2006, 11:06 PM
Thanks for the informative post. I thought these boards were for discussion. I opened a topic that served two purposes. One, to help me feel better and to open a little discussion.

redsmetz
09-12-2006, 11:28 PM
Oh, good lord! VI_RedsFan has it right. This has been discussed ad nauseum. With both hands tied behind his back and forced to come into the game late, Krivsky has been gradually tearing down the pile of garbage brought in by the past administration and reconstructing a team which has competed up until early this month. Competed!

This from a team expected to finish last or near to it. Have all the trades worked out? No! They never do! But if anyone believes WK has made trades just for the sake of making them, you've got another think coming. It's absurd.

We had a bullpen at the break that should have been placed in the witness protection program. He has stockpiled pitchers trying to patch together a decent staff. He took flyers on pitchers that other teams would have looked at too (shall we mention Sidney Ponson was picked up by the Yankees, our own reject Dave Williams was taken by the Mets via trade). Pitching is pitching, and you leave no rock unturned.

Go ahead and bemoan all you want. This is not the old days with the Reds and, IMO, it's absurd to suggest it is.

bottom_feeder
09-12-2006, 11:41 PM
I think the OP has an original point. If you guys disagree, how about coming up with counterpoints instead of telling him to shut up? If you're tired of reading the same topic, why read this thread?

Cedric
09-12-2006, 11:47 PM
Look at this roster in February and tell me under any circumstances how a .500 record would be possible?

I think we need some perspective here and we need to stop looking for a miracle man. We had NOTHING but junk to trade away this year and Krivsky was going for it without mortaging the future. In fact I think we have a more flexible future with an actual baseball roster.

And Felipe Lopez as your starting SS was never going to cut it.

ickey333
09-12-2006, 11:49 PM
I hope Krivsky can pick up more "crap" like Schoeneweis and his 0.84 ERA since he's been with the team...and another nice outing to get the win tonight.

guttle11
09-13-2006, 12:21 AM
I hope Krivsky can pick up more "crap" like Schoeneweis and his 0.84 ERA since he's been with the team...and another nice outing to get the win tonight.


You made my point for me.

Fact is, Krivsky's good moves far outweigh the bad. Heck, there'd be no pennant race for Franklin to blow without Ross, Arroyo, and Phillips. And don't forget the jettisoning of guys like Womack, Williams, and McCracken. Addition by subtraction.

TeamBoone
09-13-2006, 12:28 AM
For Pete's sake, the guy only has 8 posts... I'm sure he doesn't know this has been discussed ad nauseum... and he had something to say.

Give him a break.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 12:33 AM
I hope Krivsky can pick up more "crap" like Schoeneweis and his 0.84 ERA since he's been with the team...and another nice outing to get the win tonight.

You mean like Franklin?

For every positive with Wayne, I'll go ya one negative.

GOREDSGO32
09-13-2006, 12:37 AM
I'll agree that most moves in the midseason have done little to nothing, but we didn't really sacrifice a lot either quite frankly.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 12:45 AM
I'll agree that most moves in them idseason have done little to nothing, but we didn't really sacrifice a lot either quite frankly.

They sacrificed too much. And too much is too much.

jimbo
09-13-2006, 12:49 AM
They sacrificed too much. And too much is too much.

This team would have been no better off with White, Hammond, Lopez, Kearns, Germano, etc. etc. The important thing is that at least they tried and didn't simply sit on their hands.

And I still don't see how some feel they sacrificed so much. None of the players they traded were difference makers. It's real easy to criticize after the fact.

Chip R
09-13-2006, 12:59 AM
Congratulations on being the 1,000 person to post a thread on this topic...

Get over it.

That hasn't stopped anyone else from talking about it. Last I checked we didn't have a post police position on this board. If someone else wants to talk about a subject that has been talked about ad nauseum, it's their right to do so. Leave the policing up to the mods.

Jr's Boy
09-13-2006, 01:06 AM
I'm happier now as a Reds fan than a year ago,and knowing we have a future to look forward too,rather than years of frustration.Rome wasn't built in a day and Krivsky has done alot this year with what he's had.The jury is still out on the Nats deal imo.
Kriskey should be GM of the year with what he has done with this bunch.

Highlifeman21
09-13-2006, 01:22 AM
I'm happier now as a Reds fan than a year ago,and knowing we have a future to look forward too,rather than years of frustration.Rome wasn't built in a day and Krivsky has done alot this year with what he's had.The jury is still out on the Nats deal imo.
Kriskey should be GM of the year with what he has done with this bunch.

Omar Minaya will get that hardware. That's a pretty good Mets team he's put together up in Queens.

Jr's Boy
09-13-2006, 02:08 AM
Omar Minaya will get that hardware. That's a pretty good Mets team he's put together up in Queens.

Yeah and he had alot of dough to throw around too.

pedro
09-13-2006, 02:16 AM
The radio is moaning, calling to the dogs
There are still a few animals, left out in the yard
But its getting harder, to describe sailors, to the underfed

westofyou
09-13-2006, 02:18 AM
They sacrificed too much. And too much is too much.
Yeah, the season is a regular Mercury Milkshake.

pedro
09-13-2006, 02:22 AM
Selling news, the monk bought lunch
Ha ha, he bought a little, yes, he did, woo!

Ltlabner
09-13-2006, 07:58 AM
For every positive with Wayne, I'll go ya one negative.

And the award for most "most likely to carry through with his promise" goes to.........

redsmetz
09-13-2006, 08:30 AM
You made my point for me.

Fact is, Krivsky's good moves far outweigh the bad. Heck, there'd be no pennant race for Franklin to blow without Ross, Arroyo, and Phillips. And don't forget the jettisoning of guys like Womack, Williams, and McCracken. Addition by subtraction.

But even saying Franklin is blowing is to look at this with a microscope. Even with our revamped bullpen, we cannot afford to give out outs or extra bases as EE did last night. One out and a runner on second calls for different pitching than one out runner on first. Certainly we want our pitchers to bear down in those situations, but lets play and field smart. Everyone crying for Narron and Franklin's head aren't talking about the two mistakes by EE that nearly cost us the game. Now this isn't to pick on Eddie. It's to note that this club in its situation can ill afford to give up outs, let teams get unearned extra bases and we can't afford to give up runs on a fly ball to center.

I think the reaction to the OP is that this sort of gripe is incessant. Narron this, Franklin that, "MichaelekFranklinKim" is a definite loss if we have to rely on them. I honestly think some folks here just thrive on misery.

Perspective, as noted elsewhere, is needed. Has there ever been a situation where a new GM was hired a week before Spring Training starts for a team expected to finish near the bottom who has stayed in the hunt through the entire season? I don't recall any. If you're looking for being ticked at someone, be mad at MLB for dragging their feet on approving the sale of the team which forced Castellini to not take the reigns until much of the offseason was over.

Krivsky has assembled an intriguing team who have been alternately maddening and inspiring. Yes, these team could have a significantly better record if we had played more consistantly. But the blame can go all around. Sometimes it was the starters, sometimes it was the bullpen and sometimes it was the offensive. Someone aptly noted that if you had said late in the season it would be the starting pitching which would be carrying us at the end, you probably would have been sent for drug testing.

As for me, I'm tired of the whining. It's been a good run and I'm hoping for an exciting finish. It's a damn shame Eric Milton didn't get the win, but we got the W nonetheless. That's the most important thing and it was this TEAM that accomplished that.

redsmetz
09-13-2006, 08:33 AM
For Pete's sake, the guy only has 8 posts... I'm sure he doesn't know this has been discussed ad nauseum... and he had something to say.

Give him a break.

Point taken. NPCoach, my reaction really was a conglomeration of the regular posts on this board that tell us that the Reds are stinking up the universe. My apologies for jumping on you in particular. I still believe there's more good than bad in this season, but maybe that's just me. Welcome to RedsZone.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 10:06 AM
This team would have been no better off with White, Hammond, Lopez, Kearns, Germano, etc. etc. The important thing is that at least they tried and didn't simply sit on their hands.

.

That's not true at all. The important thing is to improve.

And this team's record is worse than it was before "the trade." So that debunks that point as well.

The reason this team is where they are can be summed up in five little letters: A-P-R-I-L.

They are where they are in spite of July and August, not because of it.

UK Reds Fan
09-13-2006, 10:18 AM
Great Moves:
Ross - Terrific Year for no $$$ or no real prospects
Phillips - See Ross
Schowenwiess - .84 ERA, not much $$$ no real prospects

Good Moves:
Arroyo - Great year, below average $$$ but did cost Pena
Guardado - Terrific 10 outings, little $$$ but did come with injury
Lohse - Good performance thus far in pitching where we needed it, did/will cost some $$$ and the argument over Ward as a prospect atleast is debatable.

Medoicre Moves:
Hollandsworth - Mediocre performance or maybe worse, no $$$ and no prospects. But I could argue Deno or Hopper should be our OF depth when Griff, Freel, etc.. need rest.
Yan - Mediocre to below performance, no $$$ and no prospects.
Cormier - Mediocre performance, did cost us 2.2 mil next year and did give up Germano who could have given us better than Cormier himself and certainly better than Michalek.

Bad Moves (as of now anyway):
Bray/Majic - Bad performance is all you can say about these 2, average $$$ and gave up Lopez/Kearns. Opinions aside on Lopez/Kearns, we in no way expected to get players that actually hurt our performance in the trade which is what has occured for this year anyway.
Franklin - I think the guy has been rather poor to no better than barely mediocre, no $$$ and no prospects
Mays - Terrible performance, no $$$, no prospects, but he did sort of hurt us with his handful of starts.


All in all, the moves, to me, have been more helpful to the team rather than hurtful. Outside of Bray/Majic moves, nothing else has really hurt the team as the guys that mostly were replaced (Merk, White, Coffey as closer, Weathers as closer, Burns, Larue, Womack/Freel/Aurillia at 2B, lord knows in starting pitching rotation) weren't going to give improved performance over these guys anyway.

westofyou
09-13-2006, 11:03 AM
And this team's record is worse than it was before "the trade." So that debunks that point as well.

Yep as I said on the day of the "Trade" the worst thing about the trade is if the Reds don't succeed everyone will always point at the Trade as the reason, which in my mind is faulty because it ignores the reality that would have existed if the trade didn't occur.

It's an unknown, but keep kicking it around the room if you must.

westofyou
09-13-2006, 11:06 AM
That's not true at all. The important thing is to improve.

30-6-24-10-16

Those are the games under .500 the Reds finished the past 5 seasons.

Improvement is seen in a reduction of that number.

Not some mallable reality created by fans.

Krusty
09-13-2006, 11:15 AM
Obviously there are a few who forgot what it was like to have Dan O'Brien as the GM.

Red Leader
09-13-2006, 11:31 AM
The bullpen was a disaster and EVERYONE knew that's what would cost us a playoff spot if it stayed the same. Wayne made a move to address it, and several other moves as well. He made a bunch of moves to address the bullpen. Obviously the Kearns / Lopez trade was the biggest and that didn't turn out so well, but all of the other trades were decent, IMO, for what he was trying to accomplish.

The whole don't make a trade to make a trade thing bothers me. Wayne had players in the minors that he didn't want (mostly DanO acquisitions) and didn't want in the organization. Would you rather he kept them here and buried them somewhere, than trade them to address needs on the major league team this year, a year where we had a legitimate shot at the playoffs if the bullpen could be addressed? He knew he wasn't going to get top shelf bullpen talent in return for those minor leaguers, but his thinking was, I'd rather have a player that COULD help the major league team make the playoffs this year rather than a minor league player that has no future in our organization. I don't blame him for that. In fact, I praise him for that.

ThatPitchIsDunn
09-13-2006, 11:46 AM
Franklin I think we can all agree on. This guy is Graves-esque toward the end of his stint with the Reds, seemingly topping out at around 88 on the fastball. The crazy thing about last night is before he fell apart, he struck out Piazza on three pitches. If we need a righty, Coffey and Stormy have been fine for the most part as of late. Enjoy your view from the bench, Ryan.

I'll still give Krivs the slight benefit of the doubt because his moves were kinda forced by injuries at times. This team is probably 5-7 wins better with Mercker and Guardado healthy. I know Merk's been a whipping boy at times, but he had pitched some great outings before his arm finally went. I actually thought our bullpen could handle the job when we'd bring Coffey, Stormy, Merk, Bray in the late innings before Guardado.

Speaking of Bray, I think the jury's still out on him. The kid's 23. I know I know, the return doesn't justify what we gave up. I still think he can be effective.

I don't care if Majewski is young or not. He stinks. He is Rick White/Mike Burns-hold-your-breath-bad. That one definitely hurts.

The toughest thing about gauging Kriv's performance is that he started in February. I'm going to give him one full offseason before I call for his head. Now if he trades Dunn for like Erik Bedard straight up, then I'll have many more angry words.

Jr's Boy
09-13-2006, 12:30 PM
Great Moves:
Ross - Terrific Year for no $$$ or no real prospects
Phillips - See Ross
Schowenwiess - .84 ERA, not much $$$ no real prospects

Good Moves:
Arroyo - Great year, below average $$$ but did cost Pena
Guardado - Terrific 10 outings, little $$$ but did come with injury
Lohse - Good performance thus far in pitching where we needed it, did/will cost some $$$ and the argument over Ward as a prospect atleast is debatable.

Medoicre Moves:
Hollandsworth - Mediocre performance or maybe worse, no $$$ and no prospects. But I could argue Deno or Hopper should be our OF depth when Griff, Freel, etc.. need rest.
Yan - Mediocre to below performance, no $$$ and no prospects.
Cormier - Mediocre performance, did cost us 2.2 mil next year and did give up Germano who could have given us better than Cormier himself and certainly better than Michalek.

Bad Moves (as of now anyway):
Bray/Majic - Bad performance is all you can say about these 2, average $$$ and gave up Lopez/Kearns. Opinions aside on Lopez/Kearns, we in no way expected to get players that actually hurt our performance in the trade which is what has occured for this year anyway.
Franklin - I think the guy has been rather poor to no better than barely mediocre, no $$$ and no prospects
Mays - Terrible performance, no $$$, no prospects, but he did sort of hurt us with his handful of starts.


All in all, the moves, to me, have been more helpful to the team rather than hurtful. Outside of Bray/Majic moves, nothing else has really hurt the team as the guys that mostly were replaced (Merk, White, Coffey as closer, Weathers as closer, Burns, Larue, Womack/Freel/Aurillia at 2B, lord knows in starting pitching rotation) weren't going to give improved performance over these guys anyway.

Great analogy.

Rotater Cuff
09-13-2006, 12:39 PM
I hope Krivsky can pick up more "crap" like Schoeneweis and his 0.84 ERA since he's been with the team...and another nice outing to get the win tonight.

I couldn't agree more. And I believe Bray & Majewski will be big factors in the years ahead. We like Golden Hands alot as well. I'd score him a 6 out of 10 on trades after July 1. And that could rise to an 8 or 9 next season!

Wheelhouse
09-13-2006, 12:42 PM
Congratulations on being the 1,000 person to post a thread on this topic...

Get over it.

I actually share your point of view, but I find that phrase rude, incendiary, and really vague--what do you mean by it? That the poster you are referring to has an emotional problem? That amounts to a direct insult. Seriously, what possible good can come from posting that way?

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
09-13-2006, 12:43 PM
The players that they got rid of this year are going to be easy to replace now that we don't have to do the usual offseason bullpen rebuild. We are going to have some money to spend as far as it sounds to me, phillips replaces lopez, aurillia replaces phillips, sign a big name outfielder in the offseason, and then focus completely on starting pitching. I know everyone is talking about it but I feel it would be a big mistake to trade Dunn unless you already have his power replaced. Example, sign Soriano to play left, and trade dunn for a number one starter and a top peospect in low a ball.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
09-13-2006, 12:49 PM
by the way has anyone looked at our schedule coming up. 2 more shots at the wild card leader, 3 with the cubs(eith an unhealthy zambrano and no mad dog) 3 with Houston who we have owned this year, 4 more with the cubs, 3 with the fish who may be the wild card leaders at that point in time, ans finish up with the pirates. If you asked me to come up with a easier schedule to make this happen it would be very hard to do.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 12:49 PM
It's an unknown, but keep kicking it around the room if you must.


And keep believing Bray and Maj represent a real core of bullpen performance for the next several years.

I'll ask the question again: when DO we get to reckon Krivsky's performance? Two years? Three?

At what point does someone reach a benchmark and is held accountable for performance? Please tell me. And don't give me vagaries. Give me timetables.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 12:51 PM
Yep as I said on the day of the "Trade" the worst thing about the trade is if the Reds don't succeed everyone will always point at the Trade as the reason,

.


Yep. Damn those Reds' fans for expecting results. Jerks.

Wheelhouse
09-13-2006, 12:54 PM
And keep believing Bray and Maj represent a real core of bullpen performance for the next several years.

I'll ask the question again: when DO we get to reckon Krivsky's performance? Two years? Three?

At what point does someone reach a benchmark and is held accountable for performance? Please tell me. And don't give me vagaries. Give me timetables.

Well, how 'bout now? The Reds are .500-- a marked improvement from last year. I guess that can't mean anything but a thumbs up for Wayne.:thumbup:

westofyou
09-13-2006, 12:54 PM
I'll ask the question again: when DO we get to reckon Krivsky's performance? Two years? Three?

I guess 4-7 months is enough eh?

The man took over the team during the first week of Febuary, pitchers and catchers reported the next week. He's been saddled with the many minions and poorly designed choices of the prior regime.

And yet the Reds sit at .500 on 9-13

Color me impressed.

westofyou
09-13-2006, 12:55 PM
Yep. Damn those Reds' fans for expecting results. Jerks.No I damn them for thinking that the only results come in a nice little package labled NOW.

cincrazy
09-13-2006, 12:56 PM
Krivsky has busted his butt and tried from day one. Some moves have worked out, some haven't.

Ross, Phillips, Arroyo, etc. have all worked out, and are a BIG part of the reason we're even talking about playoffs in September.

And a lot of the guys he brought in that haven't worked out (Clayton, Franklin, Everyday Eddie who worked out until he got hurt) have no ties tot his club after this year. The one really questionable move where I think he hit the panic button was the Cormier situation. We went ahead and gave that guy an extra year just for the sake of adding him, and he's been nothing short of awful for us.

I understand your frustration with some of the people, but give Krivsky a full offseason to work with things before making any big judgments, one way or the other.

durl
09-13-2006, 12:59 PM
I believe Krivsky has been a huge improvement over the previous GM and his moves have helped this team. Others have pointed out how this year has been far better than previous years.

Some trades looked good on paper and end up being bad; some looked bad and end up being good. Vice versa on both of those.

All in all, I believe this team will continue to improve because of Krivsky's work.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 12:59 PM
The question should not be: is it improvement? The question should be: is it good?

UK Reds Fan
09-13-2006, 01:00 PM
And keep believing Bray and Maj represent a real core of bullpen performance for the next several years.

I'll ask the question again: when DO we get to reckon Krivsky's performance? Two years? Three?

At what point does someone reach a benchmark and is held accountable for performance? Please tell me. And don't give me vagaries. Give me timetables.

How about this year we grade Kriv's moves? He made one bad trade in Maj/Bray thus far and will probably prove to be bad down the road. Goodness, we've gotten Guardado, Schoweniess, etc.. who have performed way better for way less. The thing I've learned is don't panic at the deadline, just as many good BP arms can be bought/had in waiver deals.

But FCB, you want to crucify over this one bad deal, wouldn't we be way out of it w/o Ross, Phillips, Arroyo, Guardado, Lohse, etc.. not to mention getting Hatteburg in the pre-season which were all Kriv's moves? I think the guy has kept us in it with wise moves and hasn't sold the future hardly much at all.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
09-13-2006, 01:14 PM
The question should not be: is it improvement? The question should be: is it good?

ALL YOU CAN ASK OF A GM IS TO MAKE IMPROVEMENTS, IS IT GOOD MEANS VERY LITTLE IMO, IS IT GOOD ENOUGH, OR IS IT SOMETHING YOU CAN BUILD ON IS THE REAL QUESTION TO BE ASKED. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT WE HAVE DONE THIS YEAR WE SHOULD ALL BE GREATFUL THAT WE ARE STILL IN THE HUNT, AND FOR THEW FIRST TIME IN THE OFFSEASON WE HAVE SOME MONEY TO FILL THE HOLES AND AN OWNER AND GM THAT ARE NOT AFFRAID TO DO IT.

redsmetz
09-13-2006, 02:24 PM
Franklin I think we can all agree on. This guy is Graves-esque toward the end of his stint with the Reds, seemingly topping out at around 88 on the fastball. The crazy thing about last night is before he fell apart, he struck out Piazza on three pitches. If we need a righty, Coffey and Stormy have been fine for the most part as of late. Enjoy your view from the bench, Ryan..

I looked at the sheet the Reds put out for reporters and Franklin's rate of retiring the 1st batter is 77% (or there abouts). His record of allowing inherited runners was also not to shabby. He's our long guy, but maybe he should be the quick, one out guy.


Speaking of Bray, I think the jury's still out on him. The kid's 23. I know I know, the return doesn't justify what we gave up. I still think he can be effective.

I agree.


I don't care if Majewski is young or not. He stinks. He is Rick White/Mike Burns-hold-your-breath-bad. That one definitely hurts.

And yet, since returning fromt he disabled list, he's pitched in three games totalling two innings and given up two hits, walked none and allowed no earned runs. I think the books still out on Maj. Let's see what's he's like rested for next year and healthy.


The toughest thing about gauging Kriv's performance is that he started in February. I'm going to give him one full offseason before I call for his head.

Amen!

westofyou
09-13-2006, 02:26 PM
And yet, since returning fromt he disabled list, he's pitched in three games totalling two innings and given up two hits, walked none and allowed no earned runs. I think the books still out on Maj. Let's see what's he's like rested for next year and healthy.


Poor Gary, our modern day version of Jack Baldschun

redsmetz
09-13-2006, 02:50 PM
Poor Gary, our modern day version of Jack Baldschun

I see from some quick research he was involved in the Robinson trade, but I'm not sure how he compares to Majewski. Was Baldschun injured when he came over? I see the Phillies had traded him to the O's a few days before the big trade sent him to Cincy? Can you enlighten me?

dabvu2498
09-13-2006, 02:52 PM
I see from some quick research he was involved in the Robinson trade, but I'm not sure how he compares to Majewski. Was Baldschun injured when he came over? I see the Phillies had traded him to the O's a few days before the big trade sent him to Cincy? Can you enlighten me?
I'll try to help: they both had high ERA's after their respective trades. :)

ThatPitchIsDunn
09-13-2006, 03:02 PM
And yet, since returning fromt he disabled list, he's pitched in three games totalling two innings and given up two hits, walked none and allowed no earned runs. I think the books still out on Maj. Let's see what's he's like rested for next year and healthy.


That's a good point. I was at the Pads day game in San Diego, and that 8th inning was so frustrating, I forgot that Cormier put the first couple on. Believe me, I want him to get outs in big situations; let's hope the healing process is for both his arm and his mindset.

westofyou
09-13-2006, 03:28 PM
I see from some quick research he was involved in the Robinson trade, but I'm not sure how he compares to Majewski. Was Baldschun injured when he came over? I see the Phillies had traded him to the O's a few days before the big trade sent him to Cincy? Can you enlighten me?

Baldschun was a 28-year-old middle reliever who had logged four 100-inning seasons and one 99-inning season for the Phillies. He was traded to the Orioles on 12-6-66 and 3 days later he was traded to the Reds, his role was to solidify a bullpen that had received average to sub average innings from Roger Craig, Bobby Locke and Jim Duffalo.


ERA DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP
Bobby Locke -2.28 5.82 3.54 17
Roger Craig -.12 3.66 3.54 64
Jim Duffalo 0.09 3.45 3.54 44.1
Dom Zanni 2.16 1.38 3.54 13


In fact Duffalo and Don Zanni were acquired to do what Craig was doing and their future on the team was eclipsed by the acquisition of Baldschum. The Reds were confident that Baldschun’s screwball/fastball approach to pitching would translate into success at Crosley and around the league. Instead the Reds received the worst of Jack Baldschum, the Reds received a 5.53 era vs. the league average of 3.60. His first three appearances as a Red were horrendous and soon confidence in his work was obviously being questioned by the Reds, he never found a groove and spent the next two years mostly in the minors.

GOREDSGO32
09-13-2006, 03:33 PM
Say whatever you want about Lopez and Kearns - the trade isn't going to be proven right or wrong for a long time. What if Kearns and/or Lopez get hurt in the offseason and barely play next year, and Bray/Majeski have 2-3 ERA seasons? Then who wins the trade??

JEA
09-13-2006, 03:38 PM
Say whatever you want about Lopez and Kearns - the trade isn't going to be proven right or wrong for a long time. What if Kearns and/or Lopez get hurt in the offseason and barely play next year, and Bray/Majeski have 2-3 ERA seasons? Then who wins the trade??

Bray and Majeski's agents. :D

jimbo
09-13-2006, 03:51 PM
Say whatever you want about Lopez and Kearns - the trade isn't going to be proven right or wrong for a long time. What if Kearns and/or Lopez get hurt in the offseason and barely play next year, and Bray/Majeski have 2-3 ERA seasons? Then who wins the trade??

I don't think it's about who wins the trade. In my opinion, it's about how it helps your team. The thing I liked about the trade was that it had the possibility to help short-term and long-term. Unfortunately, it didn't help short-term like we had all hoped. But long-term, I think Bray and Majewski both have the capability to help this team. I really didn't see either Kearns or Lopez helping long-term. By all indications, Kearns had been shopped around for quite some time but the Reds obviously never got an offer they liked. With Lopez's shoddy defense and Kearns undiscipline at the plate, combined with the fact that they were both due to get big raises during the offseason, I still feel the trade made sense at the time. This team would be no better off now if Kearns and Lopez were still around IMO.

VR
09-13-2006, 04:16 PM
I'll ask the question again: when DO we get to reckon Krivsky's performance? Two years? Three?

At what point does someone reach a benchmark and is held accountable for performance? Please tell me. And don't give me vagaries. Give me timetables.

Krivsky's performance should be judged as anyone in his position, over time. I want a GM with vision and understanding of winning today and winning tomorrow.


I guess I'd look at what he was handed. A fifth place team, projected to be sixth.

I would then look at the roster to evaluate what impact he had.

I would then look at the payroll to see what impact any acquisitions or exits had on the big picture.

I would then look at the standings and date, and compare them to the initial projections.

I would then come to a reasonable conclusion of his overall performance.

UK Reds Fan
09-13-2006, 04:20 PM
I don't think it's about who wins the trade. In my opinion, it's about how it helps your team. The thing I liked about the trade was that it had the possibility to help short-term and long-term. Unfortunately, it didn't help short-term like we had all hoped. But long-term, I think Bray and Majewski both have the capability to help this team. I really didn't see either Kearns or Lopez helping long-term. By all indications, Kearns had been shopped around for quite some time but the Reds obviously never got an offer they liked. With Lopez's shoddy defense and Kearns undiscipline at the plate, combined with the fact that they were both due to get big raises during the offseason, I still feel the trade made sense at the time. This team would be no better off now if Kearns and Lopez were still around IMO.

I don't think that is necessarily true is it? I mean the acquisition of Guardado and Schowenwiess shows me we could have had good BP production while still keeping Ears and Lopez. And for sure, Lopez's bat would have been an addition to our team given the lack of bat we had there (Clayton and Castro) before Aurillia was plugged in at short. Now Ear's production has been going south before he left CIncy and has only continued to plument in DC.

redsmetz
09-13-2006, 04:40 PM
Instead the Reds received the worst of Jack Baldschum, the Reds received a 5.53 era vs. the league average of 3.60. His first three appearances as a Red were horrendous and soon confidence in his work was obviously being questioned by the Reds, he never found a groove and spent the next two years mostly in the minors.

So, WOY, do you believe that Majewski will be the second coming of Jack Baldschun?

Ltlabner
09-13-2006, 04:49 PM
The question should not be: is it improvement? The question should be: is it good?

That would be a fair question if one could start from scratch and pick and choose players at will without regard to contracts, who is available via trade and payroll limitations. In that fantesy world you could totally rebuild an orginization and unravel 15+ years of abuse and build it into something good.

Since Krivsky operates in the real world where entire orginizations are not stripped to the bone and rebuilt in 7 months I'd say the fair question is "has there been improvement".

westofyou
09-13-2006, 04:49 PM
So, WOY, do you believe that Majewski will be the second coming of Jack Baldschun?

No, but he's got to obtain some thicker skin is my guess, because he's going to hear it, it's because he's a big part of the return for 2 everyday guys.

Quality innings from a middle relief guy would do wonders for this club, when Ediie G was in there it pushed Weathers and Coffey down a notch. Every Ryan Franklin apperance in the middle of the game is a direct result of Majewski having a bad arm. I personally don't think that the goal in getting Franklin existed with him being the number one RH out of the pen.

Burns 8.78 ERA ate up 13.1 Innings prior to the AS Break, White (6.26) 27.1.

That's 40 innings of nightmares and bedsweats.

VI_RedsFan
09-13-2006, 07:50 PM
I actually share your point of view, but I find that phrase rude, incendiary, and really vague--what do you mean by it? That the poster you are referring to has an emotional problem? That amounts to a direct insult. Seriously, what possible good can come from posting that way?

I apologize if I sounded rude by that phrase. I shouldn't have said it and I regret it. I was just annoyed by how many times people have given Krivsky a hard time over the bad trades he has made. Yeah, he did make some questionable moves, but he also made a lot of good ones. In my opinion, without him as the GM, we wouldn't be in the playoff race, we'd be in the cellar like always. Wouldn't you guys rather be in a playoff race than in the cellar? This team has not even sniffed the playoffs for a long time, and now that we are in a wild card race, I'm going to praise Kriv, not knock on him.

That's just my opinion, and I do respect the thread's original poster's opinion as well. I just disagree with him, that's all. I'm not trying to be the "post police", I'm just stating my opinion like NPCoach did. And, once again, I apologize, NPCoach, for being rude to you.

MartyFan
09-13-2006, 08:00 PM
I think a few of us in previous threads and even as the season began with trades for Arroyo and Phillips sighted that Special K was making gradual improvements based on the talent that he had to work with...small improvements each trade.

I can't think of one trade where I feel he has not done that.

A lot of folks want to talk about Kearns and Lopez but honestly they have not done anything better than the pitching we got from the Nationals since they were moved there.

Falls City Beer
09-13-2006, 08:03 PM
A lot of folks want to talk about Kearns and Lopez but honestly they have not done anything better than the pitching we got from the Nationals since they were moved there.

Kearns and Lopez have been infinitely more productive than Maj and Bray.

Natty Redlocks
09-13-2006, 11:16 PM
Kearns and Lopez have been infinitely more productive than Maj and Bray.

Have they been infinitely more productive than Aurilia and Freel? No. This offense is suffering from the same inconsistency that was here when Kearns and Lopez were here.

ChatterRed
09-13-2006, 11:28 PM
This team was basically .500 at the All-Star break and basically .500 since.

Meaning......with Lopez and Kearns it was a .500 team and without them it is too.

The only thing that will change that is some good off season free agent signings...........which may or may not happen. We have nobody to trade, so it will have to come through free agency.

I still believe the pitching is better right now than it was at the All-Star break........tonight's result notwithstanding.

ChatterRed
09-13-2006, 11:30 PM
Kearns and Lopez have been infinitely more productive than Maj and Bray.

Are you serious? You sure you haven't been watching Soriano, thinking it was Lopez?

Hahahahha.

redsupport
09-13-2006, 11:34 PM
Jack Baldschun was the man, opne of the great Reds relievers only eclipsed by Ted Davidson

edabbs44
09-13-2006, 11:52 PM
My two cents:
Wayne did not have much to work with this season. Bob pledged $$$ if they were in it and didn't come through. Maybe he upped payroll by a little, but IMO, Lohse, Cormier and the rest of the acquired stiffs don't equate to throwing money around. In my mind, Bob failed miserably in his 1st year as owner.

Now for Wayne, I think the Arroyo deal was a no brainer. An actual legitimate starter for unclogging the OF had to be done. Phillips and Ross were very good deals, but in retrospect, I think he got lucky. He has made an insane number of deals this season and most of the beneficial ones were made before spring was over.

Now look at the rest of the acquisitions and you can just laugh. Guardado was a good move, but everyone knew he was on borrowed time. Mays = joke. Franklin = Mays. The Washington Memorial. Schoenweis has been very good. Cormier is useless. Yan. Jason Johnson. Lohse has officially turned into a pumpkin.

So what is my assessment? Wayne got very lucky on a few moves. How many DFA signings, last ditch trades and trash heap vet moves did he pull? And how many succeeded? I think this is the only beginning if Bob doesn't step up with some coin. Wayne will be scouring the waiver wire quite frequently.

redsmetz
09-13-2006, 11:54 PM
My two cents:
Wayne did not have much to work with this season. Bob pledged $$$ if they were in it and didn't come through. Maybe he upped payroll by a little, but IMO, Lohse, Cormier and the rest of the acquired stiffs don't equate to throwing money around. In my mind, Bob failed miserably in his 1st year as owner.

Now for Wayne, I think the Arroyo deal was a no brainer. An actual legitimate starter for unclogging the OF had to be done. Phillips and Ross were very good deals, but in retrospect, I think he got lucky. He has made an insane number of deals this season and most of the beneficial ones were made before spring was over.

Now look at the rest of the acquisitions and you can just laugh. Guardado was a good move, but everyone knew he was on borrowed time. Mays = joke. Franklin = Mays. The Washington Memorial. Schoenweis has been very good. Cormier is useless. Yan. Jason Johnson. Lohse has officially turned into a pumpkin.

So what is my assessment? Wayne got very lucky on a few moves. How many DFA signings, last ditch trades and trash heap vet moves did he pull? And how many succeeded? I think this is the only beginning if Bob doesn't step up with some coin. Wayne will be scouring the waiver wire quite frequently.

Oh sheesh. I think this one gets the award for most cynical viewpoint on Redszone. Congrats! I hope you're not a supervisor for people. You're probably brutal when it comes to reviews.

Natty Redlocks
09-14-2006, 12:02 AM
My two cents:
Wayne did not have much to work with this season. Bob pledged $$$ if they were in it and didn't come through. Maybe he upped payroll by a little, but IMO, Lohse, Cormier and the rest of the acquired stiffs don't equate to throwing money around. In my mind, Bob failed miserably in his 1st year as owner.

Now for Wayne, I think the Arroyo deal was a no brainer. An actual legitimate starter for unclogging the OF had to be done. Phillips and Ross were very good deals, but in retrospect, I think he got lucky. He has made an insane number of deals this season and most of the beneficial ones were made before spring was over.

Now look at the rest of the acquisitions and you can just laugh. Guardado was a good move, but everyone knew he was on borrowed time. Mays = joke. Franklin = Mays. The Washington Memorial. Schoenweis has been very good. Cormier is useless. Yan. Jason Johnson. Lohse has officially turned into a pumpkin.

So what is my assessment? Wayne got very lucky on a few moves. How many DFA signings, last ditch trades and trash heap vet moves did he pull? And how many succeeded? I think this is the only beginning if Bob doesn't step up with some coin. Wayne will be scouring the waiver wire quite frequently.

You should become a Cub fan. They spend lots of money, so they must be really good.

edabbs44
09-14-2006, 12:06 AM
You should become a Cub fan. They spend lots of money, so they must be really good.

Yep, $ had nothing to do with those moves. As Maddux is leading a playoff push, Lohse gets bombarded tonight. And I think Ward had more value in return than Izturis does.

edabbs44
09-14-2006, 12:07 AM
Oh sheesh. I think this one gets the award for most cynical viewpoint on Redszone. Congrats! I hope you're not a supervisor for people. You're probably brutal when it comes to reviews.

So $ had nothing to do with these acquisitions? Seriously? Bob has gotten a free ride on this board after pledging to "bite the bullet and add payroll" if they are in it in July. Still waiting...

NPCoach
09-14-2006, 12:19 AM
A lot of what I posted originally hasn't even been addressed. Some of you have taken a small part of my post and picked it apart. That's fine. I agree it could be argued back and forth about the job Krivsky has done and the fact that his work is indeed a work in progress. However, what about the other points: drafting, scouting, developing, coaching (fundamental baseball). This franchise has failed miserably for a long time in all aspects. Again, I guess time will tell if Krivsky improves this franchise in any of these phases. To be honest, the brunt of my rant was directed at many other gentlemen who haven't produced as leaders of the Reds in some capacity. Honestly, I haven't been overly impressed with Wayne but I hope he proves me wrong. For my sanity and the sake of the Reds.

edabbs44
09-14-2006, 12:27 AM
A lot of what I posted originally hasn't even been addressed. Some of you have taken a small part of my post and picked it apart. That's fine. I agree it could be argued back and forth about the job Krivsky has done and the fact that his work is indeed a work in progress. However, what about the other points: drafting, scouting, developing, coaching (fundamental baseball). This franchise has failed miserably for a long time in all aspects. Again, I guess time will tell if Krivsky improves this franchise in any of these phases. To be honest, the brunt of my rant was directed at many other gentlemen who haven't produced as leaders of the Reds in some capacity. Honestly, I haven't been overly impressed with Wayne but I hope he proves me wrong. For my sanity and the sake of the Reds.

At this point I would like to see them take a page out of the Marlins' playbook and use their first 5 draft picks next year on the best pitchers on the board. Also, start to expand their international net. But these things take money.

Newport Red
09-14-2006, 12:34 AM
A lot of what I posted originally hasn't even been addressed. Some of you have taken a small part of my post and picked it apart. That's fine. I agree it could be argued back and forth about the job Krivsky has done and the fact that his work is indeed a work in progress. However, what about the other points: drafting, scouting, developing, coaching (fundamental baseball). This franchise has failed miserably for a long time in all aspects. Again, I guess time will tell if Krivsky improves this franchise in any of these phases. To be honest, the brunt of my rant was directed at many other gentlemen who haven't produced as leaders of the Reds in some capacity. Honestly, I haven't been overly impressed with Wayne but I hope he proves me wrong. For my sanity and the sake of the Reds.

You'll have to remember that Krivsky was hired a week before spring training. Alot of people Krivsky would have liked to join his staff were already under contract with other teams. If after a more conventional off season, drafting, scouting, developing etc. do not improve, you have a reason to not be overly impressed.

paulrichjr
09-14-2006, 12:40 AM
I'm not a huge fan of WayneK. I think he made some good moves like everyone else but made a ton of very bad moves.

Hancock DFA was horrible and many people on here thought and still think it was great even though he would have been a major contributor to our pen this year and could have added at least 3 or 4 wins to the bottom line (by replacing some of the garbage that we had). Just plain horrible move that might have cost us the season.

Even Luke Hudson would have been better than some of these guys that he has brought in but I semi understand this move.

His draft that HE is ultimately RESPONSIBLE for appears on the surface to be very poor. This leads me to wonder if over the long run we would have been better off with DanO this season. We aren't going to win anyway so wouldn't it had been better to have had a good draft.

His big move (Kearns/Lopez) is still loved by some even though if DanO would have made the same move he would have been burned at the stake and NO one would have liked it.

He made moves that many said at the time that he had a plan and that in the longrun it would make sense. Well, it hasn't made sense yet.

SteelSD
09-14-2006, 02:02 AM
Are you serious? You sure you haven't been watching Soriano, thinking it was Lopez?

Hahahahha.

Yeah, FCB is serious as he should be...

2006 Win Shares:

Bray w/CIN: 1 WS
Majewski w/CIN: -2 WS
Clayton w/CIN: 0 WS

Net Win Shares: -1

Kearns w/WAS: 6 WS
Lopez w/WAS: 5 WS

Net Win Shares: 11

Actually, FCB's use of "infinitely" wasn't hyperbole. It was truth as 11 Win Shares actually is infinitely better than -1 Win Shares. Let's really think about that for a moment. The players acquired from the Washington Nationals have combined for a negative contribution thusfar to the Reds while Kearns and Lopez combined Win Share value is 12 more than the acquired player combination.

For the season...

Bray: 2 WS
Majewski: 2 WS
Clayton: 6 WS

Kearns: 16 WS
Lopez: 15 WS

Net Win Share differential: 21 Win Shares

To put that in perspective, if we look at Kearns or Lopez and track ONLY their half-season in Cinci, they were each about as productive as the combination as the combination of Bray, Majewski, and Clayton over their entire seasons to date. That's a pill too bitter to swallow.

Kearns seasonal Win Share total has thusfar been surpassed by only Dunn (21) and Arroyo (17). Add Hatteberg to that list and you'll have the three guys on the Reds who've produced more Win Shares this season than Lopez.

That trade stunk when it was made, and it stinks now. It's most likely to stink in the future as well, but that's the way it goes when you trade above average starting offensive players for mediocre middle relief (or even decent middle relief).

But hey, I guess we get to dream about signing impact Free Agents with the money saved by moving out Kearns and Lopez...during an offseason in which the Reds won't have a protected 1st Round pick. That's swell. Anyone think Krivsky is going to punt draft picks in order to spend the "saved" cash on the high-level Starting Pitchers the Reds desperately need a year after the offseason market resulted in things like a 2-year 14.25 million dollar contract to the likes of Paul Byrd?

If the Reds shoot for a single Type A Free Agent in the offseason, then they better just sign two or three. Blow all your higher draft picks at once. But then, that'll require a monetary investment of epic proportions. Anyone here think that's going to happen? If so, how much do you think Castellini is willing to spend on long-term contracts for those guys? 75 Million? 100 Million?

The alternative is that cash that hasn't already been allocated to the likes of Rheal Cormier and Javier Valentin is used to re-up the Kyle Lohses and Rich Aurilias (if the mutual option is exercised) of the Reds. Fun choices there. Paying more for what the Reds currently have. Yippee!

That trade left the Reds in the lurch. All reasonable chips gone unless Krivsky wants to trade Dunn, Arroyo, or Harang. Some producers putting up career years (Ross, Hatteberg). Others (Aurilia) putting up numbers he most likely won't repeat. Counting on that to continue through 2007 is a recipe for destruction. Griffey declining severely both offensively and defensively when healthy.

We've already seen what happens when Krivsky gets bold. If he does it again, he's going to actually have to get more value than he gives and he has to get past the idea that throwing stuff at the wall while hoping it sticks is a good way to build a ballclub. It's not. You're going to hit sometimes while doing that but you're going to miss a lot as well. Playing roulette with your resources does that.

The best practice is to spend resources only on players who actually project to be help your ballclub rather than throwing darts at a board. If Krivsky does that, we might have something. Until then, we're only going to see reactionary responses to tosses that didn't work out. Esteban Yan cost more than what was given up for Esteban Yan. Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, and Royce Clayton cost more than Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. That's what happens when you need to respond to a move that doesn't project to work out, doesn't work out, and you need another move to cover it.

That's the dynamic and it never changes. I was hoping it would with Krivsky, but it hasn't and it's led to a team that's on the outside looking in. The worst part is that the team still projects one Pythag win less than it did on July 12th. My projected record for 2006 based on Pythag analysis? 78-84. The Reds Pythag projection on July 12th? 78-84. Current Reds Pythag projection? 77-85. After all the mechanizations, Wayne Krivsky has made this team worse and that's really the bottom line.

And, BTW, the Reds Pythag for 2005 was 75-87. We're looking at a most probable two Win Pythag gain. Hardly the stuff of legend.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
09-14-2006, 02:16 AM
Yeah, FCB is serious as he should be...

2006 Win Shares:

Bray w/CIN: 1 WS
Majewski w/CIN: -2 WS
Clayton w/CIN: 0 WS

Net Win Shares: -1

Kearns w/WAS: 6 WS
Lopez w/WAS: 5 WS

Net Win Shares: 11

Actually, FCB's use of "infinitely" wasn't hyperbole. It was truth as 11 Win Shares actually is infinitely better than -1 Win Shares. Let's really think about that for a moment. The players acquired from the Washington Nationals have combined for a negative contribution thusfar to the Reds while Kearns and Lopez combined Win Share value is 12 more than the acquired player combination.

For the season...

Bray: 2 WS
Majewski: 2 WS
Clayton: 6 WS

Kearns: 16 WS
Lopez: 15 WS

Net Win Share differential: 21 Win Shares

To put that in perspective, if we look at Kearns or Lopez and track ONLY their half-season in Cinci, they were each about as productive as the combination as the combination of Bray, Majewski, and Clayton over their entire seasons to date. That's a pill too bitter to swallow.

Kearns seasonal Win Share total has thusfar been surpassed by only Dunn (21) and Arroyo (17). Add Hatteberg to that list and you'll have the three guys on the Reds who've produced more Win Shares this season than Lopez.

That trade stunk when it was made, and it stinks now. It's most likely to stink in the future as well, but that's the way it goes when you trade above average starting offensive players for mediocre middle relief (or even decent middle relief).

But hey, I guess we get to dream about signing impact Free Agents with the money saved by moving out Kearns and Lopez...during an offseason in which the Reds won't have a protected 1st Round pick. That's swell. Anyone think Krivsky is going to punt draft picks in order to spend the "saved" cash on the high-level Starting Pitchers the Reds desperately need a year after the offseason market resulted in things like a 2-year 14.25 million dollar contract to the likes of Paul Byrd?

If the Reds shoot for a single Type A Free Agent in the offseason, then they better just sign two or three. Blow all your higher draft picks at once. But then, that'll require a monetary investment of epic proportions. Anyone here think that's going to happen? If so, how much do you think Castellini is willing to spend on long-term contracts for those guys? 75 Million? 100 Million?

The alternative is that cash that hasn't already been allocated to the likes of Rheal Cormier and Javier Valentin is used to re-up the Kyle Lohses and Rich Aurilias (if the mutual option is exercised) of the Reds. Fun choices there. Paying more for what the Reds currently have. Yippee!

That trade left the Reds in the lurch. All reasonable chips gone unless Krivsky wants to trade Dunn, Arroyo, or Harang. Some producers putting up career years (Ross, Hatteberg). Others (Aurilia) putting up numbers he most likely won't repeat. Counting on that to continue through 2007 is a recipe for destruction. Griffey declining severely both offensively and defensively when healthy.

We've already seen what happens when Krivsky gets bold. If he does it again, he's going to actually have to get more value than he gives and he has to get past the idea that throwing stuff at the wall while hoping it sticks is a good way to build a ballclub. It's not. You're going to hit sometimes while doing that but you're going to miss a lot as well. Playing roulette with your resources does that.

The best practice is to spend resources only on players who actually project to be help your ballclub rather than throwing darts at a board. If Krivsky does that, we might have something. Until then, we're only going to see reactionary responses to tosses that didn't work out. Esteban Yan cost more than what was given up for Esteban Yan. Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, and Royce Clayton cost more than Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. That's what happens when you need to respond to a move that doesn't project to work out, doesn't work out, and you need another move to cover it.

That's the dynamic and it never changes. I was hoping it would with Krivsky, but it hasn't and it's led to a team that's on the outside looking in. The worst part is that the team still projects one Pythag win less than it did on July 12th. My projected record for 2006 based on Pythag analysis? 78-84. The Reds Pythag projection on July 12th? 78-84. Current Reds Pythag projection? 77-85. After all the mechanizations, Wayne Krivsky has made this team worse and that's really the bottom line.
first of all a relief pitcher is not going to factor in win shares as much as everyday line-up guys so i think the whole thing is tainted. Second you went through way too much work for this post, maybe you could figure out which guys in the trade have had more sac bunts to the left side while facing a lefthanded pitcher during night games and then maybe break down which guys use more pine tar which forces said team to spend more money and stops them from important offseason free agent signings. Just kidding this probably took some time on your part, its just that every time i read something about the trade it makes me sick. Get over it, you never know maybe next year we will be saying" hey that trade wasn't so bad after all."

SteelSD
09-14-2006, 02:47 AM
first of all a relief pitcher is not going to factor in win shares as much as everyday line-up guys so i think the whole thing is tainted.

Oh yes, it's "tainted" because mediocre relievers don't produce as much as above-average everyday players. Yeah...got it. Right.


Second you went through way too much work for this post, maybe you could figure out which guys in the trade have had more sac bunts to the left side while facing a lefthanded pitcher during night games and then maybe break down which guys use more pine tar which forces said team to spend more money and stops them from important offseason free agent signings. Just kidding this probably took some time on your part, its just that every time i read something about the trade it makes me sick. Get over it, you never know maybe next year we will be saying" hey that trade wasn't so bad after all."

Yeah. "Maybe next year" is a great position to take. Unfortunately, "maybe next year" has been the catchphrase for the Reds for far too long. And you should feel ill every time you read about that trade. I don't need next year as I evaluate decisions on their merit immediately (that's the way the business world works, BTW). Someone does something dumb and they get no quarter from me.

That trade was dumb. It was a one-dimensional attempt to shore up a need area without understanding the associated value loss. Didn't project a Run Diff gain for the Reds. Didn't project to work out and didn't. So is life. And for the Reds to take a resource value loss on that trade, it needed to project to work out this season. You can't take a value loss on a trade if it doesn't project to work out immediately during a down season for the NL. Again, it didn't and didn't project to so the Reds are where they are. So is life without reason.

So hey, feel free to use "Maybe Next Year", but it should have been this year. The Reds were in that position with the rest of the NL coming back to them. Instead of capitalizing, they made themselves worse. I knew that at the time of the deal (as did others). The Reds had opportunity, blew it and they're now on the outside looking in. Joy.

WVRedsFan
09-14-2006, 03:04 AM
Steel comes through again.

I greive every night about the trade to Washington. When I see Bray or Magic come into a game, I grieve. I grieve when I look out at shortstop and see Clayton or Castro and know they have to bat. I grieve when I see a totally over-rated Freel m who get points from fans because he "plays hard" and then watch him strike out three times, drives in no runs and gets the undying love of fans.

Krivsky traded two players who will be above average players in the prime of their careers for very average relievers. Really dumb. and yet he brings in Dwayne and Hollandsworth and thinks he's done something to help the club. I hope he has a good winter because he took a club with a winning record and coupled with an incompetent manager, turned it into a loser. Take Kearns and Lopez out of the lineup and replace them with two mediocre relievers and you get...losses.

I endorsed the trade, hoping that Denorfia would step in and be the superstar that everyone on RedsZone said he was (silly me) and when that failed we got Freel who is fine except when you need runs. At short we got Aurilia or Clayton and that has been and will be a disaster (although Aurilia has found hsi stroke, Clayton is simply overmatched). The pitching looks like more of the same.

Steel's right. The trade stunk and Krivsky going to have perform miracles to redeem himself. I hope he does. I think he won't.

We've been saying "Next year" for so long that it's a cliche. Rationalizing that an incompetent manager deserves two more years based on a winning record (which is quickly fading away) just because we've stunk so long is really good logic. Narron is Miley's choice and he's never had a winning record anywhere. The players like him, but the players like a lot of folks. Of course with the "trade," it really makes no difference. Like I said, let's hope for a good winter by Wayne. If not, like the groundhog, it's several more years of winter for the Reds. Can't wait, can you?

Ron Madden
09-14-2006, 05:50 AM
Steel comes through again.

I greive every night about the trade to Washington. When I see Bray or Magic come into a game, I grieve. I grieve when I look out at shortstop and see Clayton or Castro and know they have to bat. I grieve when I see a totally over-rated Freel m who get points from fans because he "plays hard" and then watch him strike out three times, drives in no runs and gets the undying love of fans.

Krivsky traded two players who will be above average players in the prime of their careers for very average relievers. Really dumb. and yet he brings in Dwayne and Hollandsworth and thinks he's done something to help the club. I hope he has a good winter because he took a club with a winning record and coupled with an incompetent manager, turned it into a loser. Take Kearns and Lopez out of the lineup and replace them with two mediocre relievers and you get...losses.

I endorsed the trade, hoping that Denorfia would step in and be the superstar that everyone on RedsZone said he was (silly me) and when that failed we got Freel who is fine except when you need runs. At short we got Aurilia or Clayton and that has been and will be a disaster (although Aurilia has found hsi stroke, Clayton is simply overmatched). The pitching looks like more of the same.

Steel's right. The trade stunk and Krivsky going to have perform miracles to redeem himself. I hope he does. I think he won't.

We've been saying "Next year" for so long that it's a cliche. Rationalizing that an incompetent manager deserves two more years based on a winning record (which is quickly fading away) just because we've stunk so long is really good logic. Narron is Miley's choice and he's never had a winning record anywhere. The players like him, but the players like a lot of folks. Of course with the "trade," it really makes no difference. Like I said, let's hope for a good winter by Wayne. If not, like the groundhog, it's several more years of winter for the Reds. Can't wait, can you?


Dan O'Brien has been hammered and hammered hard here, on radio and in the press.

I think the Reds made a mistake hiring O'Brien as GM. and I'm afraid they may have made another mistake with WK.

Everyone is quick to praise WK for the Ross, Phillips Arroyo and Hatteberg deals while at the same time he has brought in 33 other players that have done little or nothing to help this club win games this year or in future seasons.

I hear Wayne and Jerry preach the importance of good pitching and good defense. They have yet to show they have the ability to identify good pitching or good defense.

mth123
09-14-2006, 07:02 AM
I'm not ready to give up on WK but I do think the critics have a lot of valid points.

The trade was a loser. Period. Proven in the posts above (and on the field if you are paying attention).

Ross, Phillips and Hatte worked out but these were guys who were basically w/o jobs when WK picked them up. Very similar to Mays, Yan, etc. He has picked up a lot of cast-offs and his % in them working out may not be much higher than Bowden's was (who also did this often). I think he is perceived to to have a better success rate than others because his first 3 worked out very well. If he would have had a loser or two before these guys hit, with the exact same success rate overall, I believe that the perception would be different and in less favor of WK.

He gets a plus for his Arroyo trade and it has worked out well, but Arroyo was the odd man out this spring in the Boston rotation (when it seemed like they had 7 legit starter candidates) and was somewhat a cast-off as well. We traded one of our better trading pieces for him. Kudos to WK for recognizing his potential, but this was kind of an easy deal due to Arroyo's status in Boston. I think most of us expected more at the time.

I think WK jumped the gun on extending Narron. I have defended Narron on here, but I am fed-up with the bad choices he makes. Its true that in game moves are only a portion of his job, but consistently missing them the way he does eventually leads to a need for change no matter how many other things he does well. A couple of bad mistakes get people fired all the time in other walks of life no matter how much "good service time" they put in.

Somewhere there should be an extra black mark against WK for acquiring Ryan Franklin.

Some of his moves have been criticized of seeming like desparation. They probably were. I don't hold them against him though. They were/are desparate. Having only one legit sniff at the post season in over 10 years is the definition of desparate. Had to go for it somewhat. He didn't really trade much value except for the awful Washington trade. I give him a plus for taking a shot w/o cutting too deeply into the minors.

All of this does not lead to wild optimism as the offseason approaches. I agree with the folks who say he hasn't had enough time. Some one made a very valid point when they said the timing of his hiring did not allow him to bring in people for his staff because they already had jobs. He hasn't had enough time! He needs at least one offseason to really show what he can do.

I'm not ready to Burn WK at the stake, hang him in effigy or even can him yet. He deserves a chance. But I am not brimming with confidence that he will be capable of righting the ship.

Ron Madden
09-14-2006, 07:45 AM
I agree. I'm willing to give WK a fair chance he deserves that much.

It just seems to me like most fans, beat writers and broadcasters are wanting to name him Executive Of The Year already.

I want to have faith in WK, I really want him to be successful.

So far he kind of scares me.

Ltlabner
09-14-2006, 09:11 AM
Well, I guess Krivski's 7 or 8 months to unravel 15 years of neglect is up.

As an owner, how much time does BCast get before it's time for him to go?

edabbs44
09-14-2006, 09:24 AM
Well, I guess Krivski's 7 or 8 months to unravel 15 years of neglect is up.

As an owner, how much time does BCast get before it's time for him to go?

If success in unraveling neglect involves incompetence, then WK is on the right path.

redsmetz
09-14-2006, 09:25 AM
You'll have to remember that Krivsky was hired a week before spring training. Alot of people who Krivsky would have liked to join his staff were already under contract with other teams. If after a more conventional off season, drafting, scouting, developing etc. do not improve, you have a reason to not be overly impressed.

This is exactly the point. While some hires were accomplished, I think we're going to see a whirlwind of activity. Scouting, coaching, the Rule 5 draft, dropping players, signing free agents. Everyone came into this late and had a lot of dreck to move out. And not just on the big league club, but through out the system. Look at some of the minor leaguers who were jettisoned.

After last night's game, I have to wonder if Mark Barry will be staying. While it made little difference in the ultimate outcome, I'm still trying to figure out why he threw up the stop sign on EE. I think have to review the pitching and bullpen coach positions. We may need to hire a shrink for all I know about collective funks.

So much of this talk is so premature. Give these guys a full year of work and development. Others have said it, Rome wasn't built in a day; you don't turn a steamship on a dime, etc. etc. etc. It takes time. This season has been unexpectedly good overall, even if (and most likely when) we miss the mark. It takes time and we're all jaded from a couple of decades of mismanagement.

And, of course, it's only a game - for some genuine perspective.

UK Reds Fan
09-14-2006, 09:28 AM
Here is sort of the final deathblow to the Kearns/Lopez trade...

WK went out and got Guardado, Schowenweiss, Cormier and Franklin all after this deal. 2 have been exceptional, 1 has been average to below average and 1 has been rather terrible. If we would have held onto Kearns/Lopez, we could have still had the 4 guys mentioned above, still be an upgrade offensively with Kearns/Lopez over what we are currently doing, have appreciably more depth and still have trading chips.

The future is an argument that nobady can agree upon, but for the present day Reds, the Kearns/Lopez deal hurt the team and we proceeded to go out and still get better BP pitchers while giving away tons less in player value. End of discussion....bad trade, but at some point we move on. WK has done more to help in Hatteburg, Phillips, Ross, Arroyo, Schowenweiss, Guardado, Lohse than hurt Maj/Bray, Franklin, Yan, Cormier, Hollandsworth, etc..

Ltlabner
09-14-2006, 09:34 AM
And, of course, it's only a game - for some genuine perspective.

For all the angst and blood some here spill on the Reds, I think this fact is often overlooked.

Additionally, the Reds are a business and their business is entertainment. Have the 2006 Reds been more entertaining and held peoples collective attention longer than previous years teams?

People can get hot and bothered over player moves, stats, coaches, whether Jason LaRue did or didn't smile. Ultimatley there will be two questions to measure whether this was a successfull first season for Wayne.

Was there an increase in attendence over 2005?
Did the franchise make more money than they did in 2005?

I don't know the answers to those questions so until then, I'm reserving judgement on whether Krisky is "incompatent" or no better than Dan OBrian. I'd be willing to wager that Bob C is also wise enough to wait for those answers before he makes any decisions.

redsmetz
09-14-2006, 09:51 AM
I know this isn't going to sound right, but I'm excited about this offseason for the first time in years. I've said all along, the postseason this year would be nothing but gravy. I like this club's direction regardless of whether each and every trade or pickup has worked (and, of course, not all have).

REDREAD
09-14-2006, 10:16 AM
Yep as I said on the day of the "Trade" the worst thing about the trade is if the Reds don't succeed everyone will always point at the Trade as the reason, which in my mind is faulty because it ignores the reality that would have existed if the trade didn't occur.

It's an unknown, but keep kicking it around the room if you must.


On the same token though, if the Reds made the playoff, "The Trade" would be heralded as the saving force, regardless of the performance of the guys recieved. We saw evidence of that shortly after the trade, when the team briefly played well. Despite Clayton and Maj being absolutely horrible, they were given credit for "Changing the culture" and "stablizing the pen". Bray's first dozen or so innings were good, but after that, he was horrible too.

We might've still missed the playoffs without the trade, but there's no denying the trade HURT the team. Clayton and Aurillia are poor defenders, I don't even think their defense was an upgrade to Lopez. Freel was certainly a dowgrade to Kearns (that was another early excuse for the trade. Freel played well for 2 weeks so it was "addition by subtraction" regardless of what we got for Kearns).

REDREAD
09-14-2006, 10:25 AM
Say whatever you want about Lopez and Kearns - the trade isn't going to be proven right or wrong for a long time. What if Kearns and/or Lopez get hurt in the offseason and barely play next year, and Bray/Majeski have 2-3 ERA seasons? Then who wins the trade??

Washington still wins the trade. You can't make a bad trade and then say that you "won" it simply because the guy you gave up had a freak accident 6 months later.

Here's an extreme example. Suppose there's an ace pitcher that's a free agent. For some reason, he's always wanted to be a Red. He signs a three year deal with the Reds for 2 million/year. A month after the season starts, he gets into a car accident and stays on the DL the rest of his career. Does that make it a bad signing? IMO, no because the guy got hurt by a random incident. The decision was still good.

If Kearns and Lopez go skiing this winter and crash into each other and end their careers, it's still a bad trade because Wayne WAY undersold them.

REDREAD
09-14-2006, 10:42 AM
Have they been infinitely more productive than Aurilia and Freel? No. This offense is suffering from the same inconsistency that was here when Kearns and Lopez were here.

Freel had a nice 2 weeks after the trade and then was horrible. 601 OPS in August. Not much better in Sept. Someone posted it in the gamethread yesterday, I think he was around 670-690 OPS for Sept.

So there's a CLEAR downgrade there.

Putting Aurilia at SS is harder to analyze. First of all, there is no defensive improvement with Aurilia at SS. He has no range. Last year when Aurillia put the then favored Lopez on the bench, the entire board agreed that Aurillia was worse defensively. But here's the trickier thing. Now with Aurillia at SS, Hat is forced to play everyday instead of platoon.Hat had an 1127 OPS in July, but then dipped to 711 in August and 687 in Sept. He (along with Freel) are a big reason why the offense vanished. Naturally, I can't prove that Hat getting additional playing time caused him to struggle, but if we had another SS option, we'd at least have the option of moving Aurillia back to SS.

For the sake of completeness, Aurilia has had a nice bat down the stretch. He OPSed 875 in August and 1164 in Sept, which does beat Felipe (782/688)

Always Red
09-14-2006, 10:45 AM
I can't stand Leatherpants, but he's not a dummy. I want so much for this team to improve, and for Kriv and Bob Cast to bring the Reds back to championship form. I have to keep telling myself that they've only had 7 months thus far, of new ownership and directing this team.

Compounding that is the fact that O'B's team came out of the gate in April like a lion, and played great for the first part of the season. I think Kriv saw the weaknesses, but didn't want to upset the apple cart until things started to go sour, which of course, they did. You can't come into town, brand new, and break up a winning team. The pitching, especially relief, eventually declared itself, as most thought it would. Pitching has always been the bane of this franchise, and will be for the forseeable future.

How long do you give until you decide if they're on the right path or not? IDK the answer to that. O'B got three years, I think any new GM deserves about the same.

Kriv has been a mixed bag; some good, some bad, some just downright puzzling. He's been like O'B in a way, in that he has brought some of his own guys in to see if they'll work out. How many pitchers has he thrown against that wall to see if they'll stick?

Anyway, back to old Leatherpants, who, though I disdain him, is actually a pretty smart guy (at times). His words after that trade haunt me every time I watch the Redlegs: "Anytime we can trade two middle relievers for two regulars, we think it's a pretty good deal." And he's right. The Reds bullpen was simply brutal back in July; this trade upgraded it to simply bad.

All I can imagine is that early on, Kriv decided that Kearns and Lopez were not his type of player, and especially given their contract status, it was time for them to go. This is going to be a very active off season for the Reds, and after thinking more about it, I can see the entire complexion of this team changing. Hopefully, for the better.

REDREAD
09-14-2006, 10:54 AM
first of all a relief pitcher is not going to factor in win shares as much as everyday line-up guys

That's EXACTLY why we've never seen a trade like this before. I can't ever remember a team trading two guys out of its starting lineup for 2 middle relievers. The bizzare thing is that the Reds really didn't have replacements for Kearns and Lopez either. Freel flopped and if you trade Lopez because of his bad defense, you don't want Aurillia as your starting SS

And Kearns and Lopez are not going to be high priced next year. Neither is likely to cost as much as Lohse will. (although the Reds might nontender Lohse). The Reds also tossed over 2 million to Cormier next year. That would come close to covering the raises for Kearns and Lopez, since the average arb raise is 900k. This move may end up COSTING them money if they want to go out and get a legitimate OF and MI.

TeamBoone
09-14-2006, 11:32 AM
So $ had nothing to do with these acquisitions? Seriously? Bob has gotten a free ride on this board after pledging to "bite the bullet and add payroll" if they are in it in July. Still waiting...

You can't spend the money if there's nothing out there to spend it on!

Well, you can, but why would you?

zombielady
09-14-2006, 11:49 AM
Hey, I just want them to stop trading the guys I like... maybe I'll make Milton and Aurilia my favorites, so they'll get traded...

TeamBoone
09-14-2006, 11:55 AM
I'm not a huge fan of WayneK. I think he made some good moves like everyone else but made a ton of very bad moves.

Hancock DFA was horrible and many people on here thought and still think it was great even though he would have been a major contributor to our pen this year and could have added at least 3 or 4 wins to the bottom line (by replacing some of the garbage that we had). Just plain horrible move that might have cost us the season.

Even Luke Hudson would have been better than some of these guys that he has brought in but I semi understand this move.

His draft that HE is ultimately RESPONSIBLE for appears on the surface to be very poor. This leads me to wonder if over the long run we would have been better off with DanO this season. We aren't going to win anyway so wouldn't it had been better to have had a good draft.

WK was not responsible for the Hancock DFA. It happened early in ST, under the DOB regime.

I don't remember when Hudson was let go... wasn't it in the offseason?

And there's is absolutely NO WAY the Reds would be better off under DOB this season. I can't believe I even read that!! :eek:

TeamBoone
09-14-2006, 11:56 AM
Hey, I just want them to stop trading the guys I like... maybe I'll make Milton and Aurilia my favorites, so they'll get traded...

Aurilia has been tremendous this year... and Milton, for the most part, has been pretty good too. There are a lot worse players on the the Reds than these two.

Always Red
09-14-2006, 11:58 AM
WK was not responsible for the Hancock DFA. It happened early in ST, under the DOB regime.



O'B never made it to spring training; this was Narron's call, as I understand it, and Krivsky agreed.

dabvu2498
09-14-2006, 11:59 AM
WK was not responsible for the Hancock DFA. It happened early in ST, under the DOB regime.

I don't remember when Hudson was let go... wasn't it in the offseason?


Wrong. Krivsky was hired Feb. 8, Hancock was released Feb. 18. Hudson was released March 10.

TeamBoone
09-14-2006, 12:02 PM
Nm

TeamBoone
09-14-2006, 12:03 PM
Wrong. Krivsky was hired Feb. 8, Hancock was released Feb. 18. Hudson was released March 10.

OK, I believe you.... but I thought WK was hired about 3 weeks before ST ended.

dabvu2498
09-14-2006, 12:09 PM
OK, I believe you.... but I thought WK was hired about 3 weeks before ST ended.

He was hired Feb. 8, pitchers and catchers reported Feb. 16.

REDREAD
09-14-2006, 12:31 PM
WK went out and got Guardado, Schowenweiss, Cormier and Franklin all after this deal. 2 have been exceptional, 1 has been average to below average and 1 has been rather terrible. If we would have held onto Kearns/Lopez, we could have still had the 4 guys mentioned above, still be an upgrade offensively with Kearns/Lopez over what we are currently doing, have appreciably more depth and still have trading chips.

..


Yep, it also really hurt that days after the Wash trade, Atlanta was able to get Wickman for a low level prospect. Wickman was older but had virtually identical numbers to Maj at the time of the trade and was healthy. Wayne can cry about the unreported cort shot all he wants, but he knew he was getting a hurt guy. Wickman with Atlanta went on to hold opponents to a 507 OPS and had a 1.37 ERA as a Brave. Natually, that is beyond expectations, but that what we were hoping Maj would give us.

I haven't given up on Wayne. I hope the Wash trade was his "initiation" to being a GM and that he will be less impulsive in the future on a high stakes trade. It almost seemed that Wayne convinced himself he had the Midas touch after Ross, Arroyo, and Phillips and could do no wrong. Hopefully, he at least gained some humility from the trade and will perform better risk analysis.

zombielady
09-14-2006, 12:46 PM
Aurilia has been tremendous this year... and Milton, for the most part, has been pretty good too. There are a lot worse players on the the Reds than these two.

I agree, but we can't get decent trades on bad players... Those are just the two that I feel I can part with, without tears and bereavement leave being involved :cry:

Ltlabner
09-14-2006, 01:47 PM
On 7.13.06 the National's were 15.5 games back with a 38-52 record. As of today they are 27.5 games back with a 63-83 record. So they are 12 games further back in the standings after the trade. So for all those extra "win shares" they picked up, it did them a whole lotta diddly towards actually acomplishing anything.

The Reds went from 4 games back on 7.13 to 5 games back today. Their record went from 46-44 to 72-73 today so the Kriv detractors are correct in saying we are losing more games after "the trade" and all the other moves. It is far from being any proof of "incompetance" however to see a .014 decrease in winning percentage and be 1 game further back. So maybe, just maybe, those two players weren't so critical to us winning ball games afterall.

Unless the Reds lose all of their remaining games, chances are that they will win more games this season since any year dating back to 2000. How in the world anyone could say that doing this, combined with actually being relevant this far into the season, combined with the tremoundous amount of entertainment we've been given is a failure is beyond me.

redsmetz
09-14-2006, 04:01 PM
O'B never made it to spring training; this was Narron's call, as I understand it, and Krivsky agreed.

BTW, I think if they had to do it over, they would have dressed down Hancock, put him on an exercise and diet regime and had him still in the bullpen.

paulrichjr
09-14-2006, 05:17 PM
WK was not responsible for the Hancock DFA. It happened early in ST, under the DOB regime.

I don't remember when Hudson was let go... wasn't it in the offseason?

And there's is absolutely NO WAY the Reds would be better off under DOB this season. I can't believe I even read that!! :eek:

As has already been stated you are wrong on the non-opinion portion of this post and I honestly feel that you didn't understand what I meant on the opinion part. I think I might have worded what I meant in a confusing manner.... I despise what DanO did for the Reds in the short-term but no one can question that his drafts appear to be very good and might help us starting next season with the callup of Bailey. I am saying that if DanO would have been here this year we probably would have had a better draft which long-term is a good thing. We didn't win this season with WayneK so wouldn't you have rather had a 2005 draft all over again?

My words are as follows..."His draft that HE is ultimately RESPONSIBLE for appears on the surface to be very poor. This leads me to wonder if over the long run we would have been better off with DanO this season. We aren't going to win anyway so wouldn't it had been better to have had a good draft."

Hoosier Red
09-14-2006, 05:23 PM
I'm curious why you think the draft appears to be poor.
The results at Billings and GCL seemed to be pretty good? No?

TC81190
09-14-2006, 05:42 PM
I agree completely.

And never apologize for a perfectly legitimate position.

Word.

And really, his moves where he picked up something without trading anything have worked. Such as Brandon Phillips.

But really, his trades have been disastrous. You don't trade a young outfielder with unearthly power for a pitcher on the wrong sides of 25 and a +4 career ERA. He got really, really lucky on that one (although Bonson has started to gradually slide as the season has progressed.)

And then there was 'It'. The Trade.

When you trade a young shortstop who actually can successfully swing the bat, you get more than relievers for him. Same for a well-hitting young rightfielder who can play some good D. Very, very stupid move.

And then there was the draft. He really 'Stumbbled' on that one. Let's see...I have a few outfielders that can hit alright, but I have absolutely no dominant pitching. There's a centerfielder on the board with a questionable bat, and also a few pitchers who have been described as dominant (and one also a 'world class' hitter.) Who do I take?

Wayne is really scuffling here. I'm terrified of this offseason. I'm terrified that like Zach Ward, Cueto or someone like him will get traded for a head-case project (Lohse had better keep it up, or that's yet another Krivsky bomb.)

Please, I've had enough. Enough of the torture...

redsupport
09-14-2006, 05:55 PM
kearns and lopez stats would be better here, they were in a race here and the ballpark is hitter friendly. Pitching Franklin in important games is autolysis

terminator
09-14-2006, 06:27 PM
How in the world anyone could say that doing this, combined with actually being relevant this far into the season, combined with the tremoundous amount of entertainment we've been given is a failure is beyond me.
Well, first, their relevance is based solely on other team's mediocrity. In a normal year they would be 10+ games out of the wild card and division races.

As for having more wins than any team since 2000 being a disappointment, well, this team at 1/1/06 was 99% the same team that we had ended with last year. We all know the first half of last season was a freak train wreck because of injuries and horrendous pitching. After that, we were .500 with Narron.

So, going into the season with no changes we should have expected to see a .500 team. And with all of Bob's (i.e. authorizing the move of Casey) and Wayne's moves (and there's no denying the "Trade" was terrible), we sit here today, basically a .500 team -- which is what we started the year thinking we would be.

At least for me, that's how I see it. I wouldn't call the year a failure, but I would call it a disappointment since were so close to the playoffs and all of the moves ended up amounting to nothing helpful in the short term and I would argue they have somewhat weakened us in the long term.

Aronchis
09-14-2006, 06:29 PM
Word.

And really, his moves where he picked up something without trading anything have worked. Such as Brandon Phillips.

But really, his trades have been disastrous. You don't trade a young outfielder with unearthly power for a pitcher on the wrong sides of 25 and a +4 career ERA. He got really, really lucky on that one (although Bonson has started to gradually slide as the season has progressed.)

And then there was 'It'. The Trade.

When you trade a young shortstop who actually can successfully swing the bat, you get more than relievers for him. Same for a well-hitting young rightfielder who can play some good D. Very, very stupid move.

And then there was the draft. He really 'Stumbbled' on that one. Let's see...I have a few outfielders that can hit alright, but I have absolutely no dominant pitching. There's a centerfielder on the board with a questionable bat, and also a few pitchers who have been described as dominant (and one also a 'world class' hitter.) Who do I take?

Wayne is really scuffling here. I'm terrified of this offseason. I'm terrified that like Zach Ward, Cueto or someone like him will get traded for a head-case project (Lohse had better keep it up, or that's yet another Krivsky bomb.)

Please, I've had enough. Enough of the torture...

You thought that was torture? Your panicing when you shouldn't be yet.

Considering the nature of transitional years, you may have some surprises(Lohse getting dealt returning a better prospect than Zack Ward for example). Considering Krivsky's overhaul really begins now that he enters his first offseason, things may get worse before they get better. The Reds "lucked" out into having a bad NL this year with no team taking charge for a long long time. Krivsky makes a bad deal not so much for the players given up, but that he didn't max their values, but we did return some value. Bray IMO is going to be a rock solid relief man for several years. He is only 23 and is just going to better as his adjustment completes to the majors. A left handed Todd Coffey so to speak, and that isn't a bad deal individually.

Just because you don't score all the time, doesn't mean failure, instead a mistake you hopefully don't repeat in the future. Krivsky has had successes, failures and pushes. You can't also judge a draft yet either. This time last May, Homer Bailey was considered a bust, now he is considered the best thing since burnt toast, maybe he will be considered a bust this time next year, who knows, but allow things to develope. You may be happy with the endgame.

Benny-Distefano
09-14-2006, 07:50 PM
The radio is moaning, calling to the dogs
There are still a few animals, left out in the yard
But its getting harder, to describe sailors, to the underfed



6 pages and I'm the first to catch The Soft Parade reference?


Cobra on my left, leopard on my right.

westofyou
09-14-2006, 08:05 PM
6 pages and I'm the first to catch The Soft Parade reference?


Cobra on my left, leopard on my right.

The monk bought lunch...

Falls City Beer
09-14-2006, 08:33 PM
Well, first, their relevance is based solely on other team's mediocrity. In a normal year they would be 10+ games out of the wild card and division races.

As for having more wins than any team since 2000 being a disappointment, well, this team at 1/1/06 was 99% the same team that we had ended with last year. We all know the first half of last season was a freak train wreck because of injuries and horrendous pitching. After that, we were .500 with Narron.

So, going into the season with no changes we should have expected to see a .500 team. And with all of Bob's (i.e. authorizing the move of Casey) and Wayne's moves (and there's no denying the "Trade" was terrible), we sit here today, basically a .500 team -- which is what we started the year thinking we would be.

At least for me, that's how I see it. I wouldn't call the year a failure, but I would call it a disappointment since were so close to the playoffs and all of the moves ended up amounting to nothing helpful in the short term and I would argue they have somewhat weakened us in the long term.


Great post. At some point "what could've been" must become "was." I have no sense of Wayne's direction, and I'll be the first to admit that that's not necessarily a bad thing; however, when neither the methods of change nor the results (record) don't square in any meaningful way as yet, some doubt simply has to emerge.

TeamBoone
09-15-2006, 01:08 AM
I agree, but we can't get decent trades on bad players... Those are just the two that I feel I can part with, without tears and bereavement leave being involved :cry:

Good point!

machineguy
09-15-2006, 01:26 AM
The Reds probably need an upgrade on the OF position. Freel needs some rest to be more effective. Another starter should be helpful next year. The bullpen needs help. Maybe Bray steps up and pitches better. I wonder if Phiilips is the answer at short? Where does Aurilia fit in the plans and Hatteberg?

SteelSD
09-15-2006, 02:29 AM
On 7.13.06 the National's were 15.5 games back with a 38-52 record. As of today they are 27.5 games back with a 63-83 record. So they are 12 games further back in the standings after the trade. So for all those extra "win shares" they picked up, it did them a whole lotta diddly towards actually acomplishing anything.

On July 12th, the Nationals were posting a .422 Win Percentage. As of today, the Nats have a .432 WP for the season.

On July 12th, the Reds had a .506 WP. Today, they have a .493 WP.

Your effort to spin the trade into a negative from a Win perspective for the Nats is quite obviously entirely misplaced. Kearns and Lopez have produced twelve more Win Shares for the Nats than Bray/Majewski/Clayton have produced for the Reds and the latter combination has produced negative numbers with Cincinnati. As much as you might try, there's really no way to twist those numbers to your advantage. Independent of other factors, the Nats netted positive contributions from the trade and the Reds netted a negative contribution. That's the reality of what happened despite your continued illogical protestations to the contrary.

Ltlabner
09-15-2006, 08:48 AM
On July 12th, the Nationals were posting a .422 Win Percentage. As of today, the Nats have a .432 WP for the season.

On July 12th, the Reds had a .506 WP. Today, they have a .493 WP.

Your effort to spin the trade into a negative from a Win perspective for the Nats is quite obviously entirely misplaced. Kearns and Lopez have produced twelve more Win Shares for the Nats than Bray/Majewski/Clayton have produced for the Reds and the latter combination has produced negative numbers with Cincinnati. As much as you might try, there's really no way to twist those numbers to your advantage. Independent of other factors, the Nats netted positive contributions from the trade and the Reds netted a negative contribution. That's the reality of what happened despite your continued illogical protestations to the contrary.

So the slight improvment in winning percentage is soley due to AK and Lopez? Please. And if they pick up 1,000,000,000 win shares and go backwards in the standings are those winshares worth a crap? That's a heck of a "postive controbution". Hey, come to my team and help us go backwards!

And the Reds downturn is soley due to the loss of AK and Lopez? It has nothing to due with the ENTIRE offense slumping? Nothing to do with Narrons poor pitching staff useage? Nothing to do with playing better teams? Nothing to do with "regressing to the mean"? You want to lay the entire thing at AK and Lopez feet? Wait...that's a retorical question. I know you'll gloss over those key bits because it would be a contiued illogical protestation to the contrary of your argument.

SteelSD
09-15-2006, 11:54 AM
So the slight improvment in winning percentage is soley due to AK and Lopez? Please. And if they pick up 1,000,000,000 win shares and go backwards in the standings are those winshares worth a crap? That's a heck of a "postive controbution". Hey, come to my team and help us go backwards!

And the Reds downturn is soley due to the loss of AK and Lopez? It has nothing to due with the ENTIRE offense slumping? Nothing to do with Narrons poor pitching staff useage? Nothing to do with playing better teams? Nothing to do with "regressing to the mean"? You want to lay the entire thing at AK and Lopez feet? Wait...that's a retorical question. I know you'll gloss over those key bits because it would be a contiued illogical protestation to the contrary of your argument.

Cincinnati combined Win Shares for Bray/Majewski/Clayton: -1

Washington combined Win Shares for Kearns/Lopez: 11

What's clear is that one combination of players has produced a positive contribution to their team and one combination has produced a negative. It's pretty simple to figure out which of the two is helps and which of the two hurts.

And it wasn't me that tried to isolate games back in the standings to Kearns and Lopez. That was you. Unfortunately, your analysis was lacking.

Pre-ASB Winning Percentage:

NYM: .595
WAS: .422

STL: .551
CIN: .506

Post-ASB Winning Percentage:

NYM: .661
WAS: .446

STL: .500
CIN: .473

Washington got slightly better and lost a ton of ground because the Mets produced a dramatically higher winning percentage. Cincinnati got worse and lost ground even though St. Louis has played .500 ball from the ASB to now.

Is that solely due to the loss of Kearns and Lopez? No, but when a trade pimped as a "win now" device swaps positive value for negative value, it sure as heck doesn't help. The trade was supposed to help in a couple areas. It didn't project to, hasn't, and it actually replaced positive contribution with negative contribution. And, most disturbing, the Reds have fallen further back by playing worse baseball when chasing a team playing worse baseball.

From Washington's standpoint, it's a different dynamic. They were a bad team that played better trying to catch a better team that played significantly better baseball after the swap. You failed to note that in your original spin job. Again, it's a simple concept- a team can play better while their competition plays MUCH better and they end up falling further back in the race. But in Washington's case, this has happened while they've received positive contributions from both players acquired.

Regardless of how your closest competitor plays, the name of the game is to add contribution to your team rather than subtract. The Reds did the latter and missed a gaping window opened by the Cardinals' own regression to the mean. That's what happens when you swap productive players for less value and you were warned about it on the day of the trade.

flyer85
09-15-2006, 11:59 AM
That's what happens when you swap productive players for less value and you were warned about it on the day of the trade.but the Reds are going to save a lot of money. :evil:

SteelSD
09-15-2006, 12:06 PM
but the Reds are going to save a lot of money. :evil:

No no no. It was addition by subtraction. All swaps of positive for negative are. ;)

flyer85
09-15-2006, 12:08 PM
No no no. It was addition by subtraction. All swaps of positive for negative are. ;)kinda amusing that an article today pointed out the Reds will go into the off-season needing a couple of OFs.

Aronchis
09-15-2006, 12:22 PM
kinda amusing that an article today pointed out the Reds will go into the off-season needing a couple of OFs.

But they don't need a couple of OF's.

terminator
09-15-2006, 01:41 PM
No, but when a trade pimped as a "win now" device swaps positive value for negative value, it sure as heck doesn't help. The trade was supposed to help in a couple areas. It didn't project to, hasn't, and it actually replaced positive contribution with negative contribution.
That's the crux of the matter. It was intended to help us win now by fixing a short term need. It didn't in part because of bad luck with Majewski and in part for other reasons.

Going forward, I think it's pretty clear that having two middle relievers for two decent position starters was a bad long term move. The only way this turns out well for Wayne is if he takes the money saved by trading Kearns & Lopez and signs a very good player. Then he can argue it is Bray + Majewski + very good player (Jason Schmidt, Hunter?) = Kearns + Lopez and it won't sound so bad.

Forgetting economics as it is now he has to argue that Bray + Mejewski = Kearns + Lopez and considering those players alone it was a bad long term move for this team.