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View Full Version : Complete this trade idea..



Gamble
09-15-2006, 04:40 AM
During the upcoming offseason I would look for Baltimore to once again entertain the idea of moving Miguel Tejeda. Now, if you were Wayne Krivsky would you take that opportunity and put together a package including Adam Dunn to get Miguel Tejeda? (I for one have wanted to see Tejeda in a Reds uniform since his departure from Oakland, his intensity and love for the game would be a perfect match for Cincinnati, it has been a long time since this ballclub has had a player of that caliber.)

The key to this deal is to not only get Tejeda but to also find a way to get Erik Bedard in this package also. What else would have to be included to snag these two?

If the rumors were true during the July 31st deadline, the idea of Tejeda coming to Cincinnati was more than speculation. But it was at the expense of Homer Bailey and that tells us Wayne Krivsky is not looking to move him. So excluding Bailey what would it take to get this deal done?

mth123
09-15-2006, 07:10 AM
I don't think you can get Bedard w/o including Bailey.

Krusty
09-15-2006, 09:44 AM
Rumor is Tejeda is better at third defensively than at shortstop.

roby
09-15-2006, 10:19 AM
Rumor is Tejeda is better at third defensively than at shortstop.

The reds already have third base covered with EE. I would keep Tejada at SS. How about Dunn, Coffey and Cormier. One could wish!!!

PuffyPig
09-15-2006, 10:45 AM
I don't think you can get Bedard w/o including Bailey.

THey probably couldn't get him even including Bailey.

Would you trade EE for a package including a hot-shot third base propsect?

You don't trade a young cheap sure thing for a "possible". You do trade an expensive sure thing in a package for a hot-shot. The time to get Bedard was before he broke through or when he's on the verge of FA.

guttle11
09-15-2006, 11:30 AM
During the upcoming offseason I would look for Baltimore to once again entertain the idea of moving Miguel Tejeda. Now, if you were Wayne Krivsky would you take that opportunity and put together a package including Adam Dunn to get Miguel Tejeda? (I for one have wanted to see Tejeda in a Reds uniform since his departure from Oakland, his intensity and love for the game would be a perfect match for Cincinnati, it has been a long time since this ballclub has had a player of that caliber.)

The key to this deal is to not only get Tejeda but to also find a way to get Erik Bedard in this package also. What else would have to be included to snag these two?

If the rumors were true during the July 31st deadline, the idea of Tejeda coming to Cincinnati was more than speculation. But it was at the expense of Homer Bailey and that tells us Wayne Krivsky is not looking to move him. So excluding Bailey what would it take to get this deal done?

Dunn, Cueto, and Medlock for Tejada.

Stay away from Bedard.

Highlifeman21
09-15-2006, 09:58 PM
During the upcoming offseason I would look for Baltimore to once again entertain the idea of moving Miguel Tejeda. Now, if you were Wayne Krivsky would you take that opportunity and put together a package including Adam Dunn to get Miguel Tejeda? (I for one have wanted to see Tejeda in a Reds uniform since his departure from Oakland, his intensity and love for the game would be a perfect match for Cincinnati, it has been a long time since this ballclub has had a player of that caliber.)

The key to this deal is to not only get Tejeda but to also find a way to get Erik Bedard in this package also. What else would have to be included to snag these two?

If the rumors were true during the July 31st deadline, the idea of Tejeda coming to Cincinnati was more than speculation. But it was at the expense of Homer Bailey and that tells us Wayne Krivsky is not looking to move him. So excluding Bailey what would it take to get this deal done?

1. Welcome to RedsZone!

2. I'm a Tejada fan, but I would never move Dunn for Tejada. Not in a million years.

3. As for Bedard, I'm not sold on him, and I would like to see how this Homer Bailey rollercoaster plays out first. While I fully expect Homer Bailey to never remotely even closely realize the ridiculously lofty expectations placed on him by us fans, he may be serviceable, as a #3.

mth123
09-15-2006, 11:13 PM
THey probably couldn't get him even including Bailey.

Would you trade EE for a package including a hot-shot third base propsect?

You don't trade a young cheap sure thing for a "possible". You do trade an expensive sure thing in a package for a hot-shot. The time to get Bedard was before he broke through or when he's on the verge of FA.

I agree for the most part. The key word in the original post was including Bailey (along with Dunn). My point was no Bedard w/o Bailey. But like you, still not sure even with him.

I'd also be squeamish about dealing Dunn. Next year at $10 Million he is still cheap for his 40 HRs and high OBP. It would likely take $13 to $15 million to replace his production on the FA market. That would probably be in LF and you would still have the same problem of where to play JR, no good everyday option in CF, and less money for pitching. Sure you could probably sign Hunter with the money and fix a couple of those problems, but the offense would be worse with Hunter subbing for Dunn IMO. Hunter is a very, very good complimentary player. But a complimentary player he is. W/O Dunn this team needs a centerpiece.

markymark69
09-15-2006, 11:38 PM
I don't think you can get Bedard w/o including Bailey.


Agreed. I do not believe there would any way to pull a deal off like that w/o Bailey heading the other way.

Natty Redlocks
09-15-2006, 11:56 PM
Sure you could probably sign Hunter with the money and fix a couple of those problems, but the offense would be worse with Hunter subbing for Dunn IMO. Hunter is a very, very good complimentary player. But a complimentary player he is. W/O Dunn this team needs a centerpiece.

I agree with you in principle here. There are so few true franchise players, when you get one you need to hang on to them with both hands.

Unfortunately, neither Dunn nor Griffey qualify as a true franchise player. They're both complementary players, and this team has no centerpiece. That doesn't mean Dunn never will be, but the time is quickly approaching to decide whether you build around him or trade him while his value is high. His disappearing act every September is simply not the stuff a centerpiece is made of.

mth123
09-16-2006, 12:08 AM
His disappearing act every September is simply not the stuff a centerpiece is made of.

How many Septembers have the Reds been in contention for him to disappear? This sounds like a yearly occurrence.

Natty Redlocks
09-16-2006, 06:48 AM
How many Septembers have the Reds been in contention for him to disappear? This sounds like a yearly occurrence.

His career September OPS was around .755 last time I checked.

Todd Hollandsworth's career September OPS is around .775.

If your team would be better off benching you for T-Hole down the stretch, you MIGHT not be a franchise player.

mth123
09-16-2006, 07:27 AM
His career September OPS was around .755 last time I checked.

Todd Hollandsworth's career September OPS is around .775.

If your team would be better off benching you for T-Hole down the stretch, you MIGHT not be a franchise player.

We all have stats we think are important I suppose. If you pick and choose enough you can seemingly make a case for or against anything. Stats are great when applied correctly. You can choose the small sample size of Sept OPS which were accumulated through years of meaningless games with many of his team's primary players sitting out with injury (Griffey, Kearns, Casey, Pena, Boone, etc.) during most of those years.

I choose to see a guy who won't be 27 until November, who has put up 3 years in a row with over 40 Homers, a high OBP and a high OPS. There aren't many players with stats like that in MLB and even fewer that are only 26. I seriously doubt many will become available to build this team around and if they are they will probably cost more than $10 Million. I'd trade Dunn if I could get a serious haul that filled three or four needs long term. Lacking that I would build around the guy. Don't make the mistake of thinking that trading Dunn is payroll relief. It will cost more than he is paid to replace him.

We probably just disagree on this point.

Highlifeman21
09-16-2006, 11:55 AM
I agree with you in principle here. There are so few true franchise players, when you get one you need to hang on to them with both hands.

Unfortunately, neither Dunn nor Griffey qualify as a true franchise player. They're both complementary players, and this team has no centerpiece. That doesn't mean Dunn never will be, but the time is quickly approaching to decide whether you build around him or trade him while his value is high. His disappearing act every September is simply not the stuff a centerpiece is made of.

Dunn is a franchise player. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise. EE is developing into a franchise player. Right now, Harang is our franchise pitcher.

But, in your world, the Reds lack a franchise player....

Natty Redlocks
09-16-2006, 08:23 PM
We all have stats we think are important I suppose. If you pick and choose enough you can seemingly make a case for or against anything. Stats are great when applied correctly. You can choose the small sample size of Sept OPS which were accumulated through years of meaningless games with many of his team's primary players sitting out with injury (Griffey, Kearns, Casey, Pena, Boone, etc.) during most of those years.

I choose to see a guy who won't be 27 until November, who has put up 3 years in a row with over 40 Homers, a high OBP and a high OPS. There aren't many players with stats like that in MLB and even fewer that are only 26. I seriously doubt many will become available to build this team around and if they are they will probably cost more than $10 Million. I'd trade Dunn if I could get a serious haul that filled three or four needs long term. Lacking that I would build around the guy. Don't make the mistake of thinking that trading Dunn is payroll relief. It will cost more than he is paid to replace him.

We probably just disagree on this point.

It's not just September, though. I just checked: his lifetime August OPS is .820 -- pretty ordinary for your best hitter. And Sept. has now dropped to .748, which means that for the last two months of the season, his entire career, the OPS is well below .800. That's not a tiny sample size. It's roughly a third of his at-bats, arguably the most important third, with pennant races going on and theoretically playoff games ahead. If the Reds ever make the playoffs, do you want it to be with your "franchise player" in a free fall since July?

I really really do understand the value of Dunn. I love his patience. He does his part to make pitchers work. He's an imposing presence in the lineup. He gets on base and scores a lot. He drives in more runs than anyone else on the team. He's really young and may get way better. He's better defensively than most people give him credit for.

But he's going to get very expensive very soon. The time is coming to decide whether he's your guy to build your offense around or not. If so, bat him third and leave him there. If not, start exploring what you can get for him. This offseason would be a good time for that.

mth123
09-17-2006, 05:59 AM
It's not just September, though. I just checked: his lifetime August OPS is .820 -- pretty ordinary for your best hitter. And Sept. has now dropped to .748, which means that for the last two months of the season, his entire career, the OPS is well below .800. That's not a tiny sample size. It's roughly a third of his at-bats, arguably the most important third, with pennant races going on and theoretically playoff games ahead. If the Reds ever make the playoffs, do you want it to be with your "franchise player" in a free fall since July?

I really really do understand the value of Dunn. I love his patience. He does his part to make pitchers work. He's an imposing presence in the lineup. He gets on base and scores a lot. He drives in more runs than anyone else on the team. He's really young and may get way better. He's better defensively than most people give him credit for.

But he's going to get very expensive very soon. The time is coming to decide whether he's your guy to build your offense around or not. If so, bat him third and leave him there. If not, start exploring what you can get for him. This offseason would be a good time for that.


Good post and nice discussion. I'm not against trading him. It just needs to be for a lot. A whole lot. A couple of sure things to fill holes and a couple of top prospects that project well. They need to be reasonably priced so their will be money available to go get a middle of the order stud. I don't see getting all that and can't see how you can improve the team by trading him without getting that.

Since you have these stats, how much is influenced by this year? Were the numbers better w/o 2006? The Reds have ridden Dunn hard in his career. Most years by August he's one of the few guys still healthy. He plays everyday with dings and aches and bruises while trying to hold some level of threat in the offense. Meanwhile others on his team have been out with more serious injuries. This season Dunn seems to have expanded his zone somewhat in the second half. I suspect (based purely on my own assumptions) that he is trying too hard. Getting himself out by trying to hit the big HR on pitches he should be taking. I wonder if this has been the case in past years when he was the last threat left standing.

Natty Redlocks
09-17-2006, 09:16 AM
Good post and nice discussion. I'm not against trading him. It just needs to be for a lot. A whole lot. A couple of sure things to fill holes and a couple of top prospects that project well. They need to be reasonably priced so their will be money available to go get a middle of the order stud. I don't see getting all that and can't see how you can improve the team by trading him without getting that.

Since you have these stats, how much is influenced by this year? Were the numbers better w/o 2006? The Reds have ridden Dunn hard in his career. Most years by August he's one of the few guys still healthy. He plays everyday with dings and aches and bruises while trying to hold some level of threat in the offense. Meanwhile others on his team have been out with more serious injuries. This season Dunn seems to have expanded his zone somewhat in the second half. I suspect (based purely on my own assumptions) that he is trying too hard. Getting himself out by trying to hit the big HR on pitches he should be taking. I wonder if this has been the case in past years when he was the last threat left standing.

Thanks. I don't have the exact numbers without this year, but I started looking at his monthly splits early in the season and noticed the dropoff in August followed by horrible (for him) Sept. numbers. I hoped it was because they were never in contention before and this year would be different. So far, it's been worse than usual. It definitely looks like a pattern to me, and a very disturbing pattern for a guy you want to build your offense around. I know everyone is struggling right now and Jr. is hurt (big surprise), but Dunn is the guy who should be stepping up. I don't believe for a second that he's lazy or not trying; I just think he can't, and that's bad. I agree they do ride him hard, and maybe some more days off earlier in the year would help, but I've never really bought into that.

I share your concern that he'll be gone in some horrible trade for something like Adam Everett and Chad Qualls. I agree they need to get plenty for him, and agree that he probably won't return anywhere near what people want or expect. But he's a bargain at 10 million; after next year, he becomes much less of a bargain (13.5 I think?) If they're going to pay him like a franchise player, he needs to start acting like one; that's all I'm really saying. Here's hoping EE turns into Miguel Cabrera next year.