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View Full Version : Harrang or Arroyo. Who would you take?



fearofpopvol1
09-16-2006, 07:17 PM
I know that Harrang is "considered" to be the ace and over the course of this season, has seemed more consistent. However, Bronson really only had that one bad stretch and even during that time, many of the times he lost had something to do with errors or a struggling offense.

As of late though, Harrang just hasn't looked as good and Arroyo has been pitching well.

So if the Reds really needed a win, who would you count on to get it? Harrang or Arroyo and why?

I would've said Harrang earlier in the season, but as of late, I would take Arroyo.

Sean_CaseyRules
09-16-2006, 07:31 PM
I would say Harang. He has been the Ace of the staff this year and I believe that he is the most reliable guy on our pitching staff.

Tom Servo
09-16-2006, 08:05 PM
I would've said Harrang earlier in the season, but as of late, I would take Arroyo.
I'd say that's pretty much the concensus answer. They've both gone through rough patches, Bronson's in July and now Harang's during the last month.


I do think Bronson's just got a better grasp of what he can do with the ball than Aaron does at this point in his career. Harang tend to leave a few too many meatballs right down the plate. Arroyo's not perfect either as he struggles with sometimes leaving hanging curves/sliders to lefties but still I think I'd have to say Arroyo over Harang if I need a win.

Plus Bronson knows how to take his hacks at the plate. :)

RedFanAlways1966
09-16-2006, 08:48 PM
I would say Harang. He has been the Ace of the staff this year and I believe that he is the most reliable guy on our pitching staff.

I don't know about that, S_CRules. Harang & Arroyo have the same number of starts this year (32). The only stats that Harang leads in is strikeouts and Home Runs Allowed. Two important stats, ERA & WHIP, are not as close as some might think:

Harang: 3.90 ERA ; 1.32 WHIP.
Arroyo: 3.17 ERA ; 1.14 WHIP.

Arroyo has avg. 6.92 IP/GS while Harang has avg. 6.49 IP/GS. Qulaity starts are 21 for Arroyo (65.6%) and 15 for Harang (46.9%).

Aaron Harnag is a good pitcher and I am not demeaning him. But Bronson Arroyo has been the team's Most Valuable Pitcher this year and deserves the title of Ace for this team IMO.

Sean_CaseyRules
09-16-2006, 09:00 PM
I don't know about that, S_CRules. Harang & Arroyo have the same number of starts this year (32). The only stats that Harang leads in is strikeouts and Home Runs Allowed. Two important stats, ERA & WHIP, are not as close as some might think:

Harang: 3.90 ERA ; 1.32 WHIP.
Arroyo: 3.17 ERA ; 1.14 WHIP.

Arroyo has avg. 6.92 IP/GS while Harang has avg. 6.49 IP/GS. Qulaity starts are 21 for Arroyo (65.6%) and 15 for Harang (46.9%).

Aaron Harnag is a good pitcher and I am not demeaning him. But Bronson Arroyo has been the team's Most Valuable Pitcher this year and deserves the title of Ace for this team IMO.

Thanks for the info, I did not know all of that. It just seemed like he pitched a lot better this season, but the numbers do not lie!

Tony Cloninger
09-16-2006, 09:01 PM
Arroyo has been the only starter who realizes that this team was in a WC race....and pitched accordingly. The others have been up and down.....harang may just be wearing down....but he sure seems to lose it at the worst times.

Shaggy Sanchez
09-16-2006, 09:09 PM
I don't know about that, S_CRules. Harang & Arroyo have the same number of starts this year (32). The only stats that Harang leads in is strikeouts and Home Runs Allowed. Two important stats, ERA & WHIP, are not as close as some might think:

Harang: 3.90 ERA ; 1.32 WHIP.
Arroyo: 3.17 ERA ; 1.14 WHIP.

Arroyo has avg. 6.92 IP/GS while Harang has avg. 6.49 IP/GS. Qulaity starts are 21 for Arroyo (65.6%) and 15 for Harang (46.9%).

Aaron Harnag is a good pitcher and I am not demeaning him. But Bronson Arroyo has been the team's Most Valuable Pitcher this year and deserves the title of Ace for this team IMO.

One could argue though that Arroyo has had an advantage over Harang this year because of coming from the AL. Harang has been pitching to the NL hitters for a few years now and they know what to expect from him. I would give the advantage to Harang because of this.

RedFanAlways1966
09-16-2006, 09:15 PM
Thanks for the info, I did not know all of that. It just seemed like he pitched a lot better this season, but the numbers do not lie!

Thanks for the thanks, S_CRules. Harang is consistent and I like him. He has been more than a surprise to most since he was obtained in the Jose Guillen trade that took place on July 29, 2003 and was called up from Louisville on Aug. 8, 2003. He is also the first #1 starter on a REDS team (this year) to put up respectable numbers in a very looooonnnngggg time! Hamilton, Harnisch, Haynes, Lidle, Wilson, etc... UGH!

You were not here at the time, but you should have seen the reaction of some when "the great" Jose Guillen was traded to Oakland by Kullman & Maddux. :devil:

By the way (and interesting to me)... I checked and noticed that the run support for Harang and Arroyo are darn close this year... 156 runs for Harang - 151 runs for Arroyo.

RedFanAlways1966
09-16-2006, 09:19 PM
One could argue though that Arroyo has had an advantage over Harang this year because of coming from the AL. Harang has been pitching to the NL hitters for a few years now and they know what to expect from him. I would give the advantage to Harang because of this.

That is a valid point, Shaggy. On the flip-side you'd think scouting reports and film are used in today's game. However, there is no substitute for facing the real thing. Good point! :)

Always Red
09-16-2006, 09:31 PM
I don't know about that, S_CRules. Harang & Arroyo have the same number of starts this year (32). The only stats that Harang leads in is strikeouts and Home Runs Allowed. Two important stats, ERA & WHIP, are not as close as some might think:

Harang: 3.90 ERA ; 1.32 WHIP.
Arroyo: 3.17 ERA ; 1.14 WHIP.

Arroyo has avg. 6.92 IP/GS while Harang has avg. 6.49 IP/GS. Qulaity starts are 21 for Arroyo (65.6%) and 15 for Harang (46.9%).

Aaron Harnag is a good pitcher and I am not demeaning him. But Bronson Arroyo has been the team's Most Valuable Pitcher this year and deserves the title of Ace for this team IMO.

great post, and I agree totally!

Up until a month ago, I'd have voted for Harang. This month Arroyo has been awesome. I was at the shutout he threw last week against the Padres, and it was almost effortless. I was sitting behind homeplate, and the angles he gives you are very deceptive. Plus, Arroyo has shown an ability to be rubber-armed, and after his first poor attempt at pitching on 3 days rest, has shown me that he could probably do it for long stretches of time.

I think the AL/NL thing probably doesn't hold much water after you've been pitching in the NL all year long.

Truth is, while neither can be considered an "ace," IMO both guys are probably #2's at this point. That's a pretty good start to putting a staff together for next year.

TOBTTReds
09-16-2006, 10:23 PM
I think people get caught up in W/L too much. During that stretch of 11? games where Arroyo didn't have a win, he had some decent games still.

6/24 6 ip, 3 r
6/29 7 ip, 2 r
7/15 7 ip, 0 r
7/20 8 ip, 2 r
8/01 6 ip, 4 r

There were 4 quality starts in his "bad" streak, and I would say three of them were "great" starts (7 ip, 2 runs, just my personal definition). It was definitely a little rough patch for him, but still OK. Here is is ERA by month:

2.34 - April
2.79 - May
2.57 - June
5.45 - July (Two or three really bad starts)
4.78 - Aug (One or two bad starts)
1.13 - Sep

He has been VERY solid this year.

Sean_CaseyRules
09-16-2006, 11:44 PM
By the way (and interesting to me)... I checked and noticed that the run support for Harang and Arroyo are darn close this year... 156 runs for Harang - 151 runs for Arroyo.


That is where I thought there would be the most difference between the two of them...hmm....that just seems weird to me...

redsupport
09-16-2006, 11:47 PM
arroyo pitched clutch and the bullpen blew plenty for him

Johnny Footstool
09-16-2006, 11:51 PM
Arroyo has been the only starter who realizes that this team was in a WC race....and pitched accordingly. The others have been up and down.....harang may just be wearing down....but he sure seems to lose it at the worst times.

The season is full of highs and lows for every player. Arroyo pitched just as well at the begining of the season as he has been doing in July and August.

HumnHilghtFreel
09-17-2006, 12:24 AM
I'd say Arroyo. They're both good pitchers, but I think Arroyo seems to want the ball more. His willingness to take the mound on 3 days rest shows that he really wants to go out there and win.

Not to say that Harang doesn't... he's a different kind of pitcher who probably couldn't go on 3 days rest.

TOBTTReds
09-17-2006, 12:34 AM
If we are talking just next year or now I say Arroyo. To build a team or staff around, I say Harang. His numbers getting consistant, and his strike outs are way up this year (30 more in 3 fewer innings). He is gonna be a 200 k guy for us. Who was our last?

RedLegSuperStar
09-17-2006, 12:54 AM
Right now i've got to go with Arroyo.. In his last 3 games he is 3-0 with an ERA under 1 run. Harang has struggled as of late and Bronson has turned it on. If these two could of equaled their pre All-Star break trends we may be still a top the Wild Card.

Reds1
09-17-2006, 01:20 AM
We need both and another arm or two if we are going to be worth a darn next season. If I had to choose I'd take Harang, but to tell you the truth I like what I'm seeing from Arroyo. Hell, he's probably about the only one lately I"ve enjoyed watching. When you have Griffey and Dunn doing nothing it's just too much on the rest of the team to make up.

machineguy
09-17-2006, 01:44 AM
Arroyo is better and a better guitar player too.

mth123
09-17-2006, 06:43 AM
Aaron Harang has been very unlucky in 2006. His BABIP is .334. This means with no improvement at all he could get significantly better results by this normalizing to about .290 or so. Arroyo has a slightly lucky .275 BABIP. I don't expect a ton of improvement for him but he shouldn't get much worse either. These guys need to hold the K rates into next year for this to be true and Arroyo's in particular seems volatile while Harang's has steadily improved during his career.

When these factors are coupled with performance this year and age I'll take Harang. I think if he keeps his weight and conditioning under control he could move up another notch from a # 2 caliber starter to a number 1A if not pure #1 status.

These guys could both benefit from better OF play but Harang probably moreso.

RedsBaron
09-17-2006, 08:13 AM
For this season, Arroyo.

zombielady
09-19-2006, 10:49 AM
I'd have to say Arroyo. Of course, I am an emotional fan. I like the guys who make big plays and get me excited. (In truth, all of my Joe Randa love is attributed to one play... I actually cried when they traded him last season... :cry: )

George Anderson
09-19-2006, 12:01 PM
Harang.

It seems Harang gives more quality starts than Arroyo.

redsupport
09-19-2006, 12:06 PM
arroyo has figured out september, harang has not been heard from

RedFanAlways1966
09-19-2006, 12:33 PM
It seems Harang gives more quality starts than Arroyo.

32 starts for each. 21 QS for Arroyo, 15 QS for Harang. :)

RedsManRick
09-19-2006, 12:57 PM
I'm really curious about what happened to Arroyo's k/9 last year and in his second year in Pittsburgh. Those are the numbers of two completely different pitchers. If he can maintain this K rate and keep his walks down, there's no reason he can't see continued success, even with the homers.

Falls City Beer
09-19-2006, 01:01 PM
I'm really curious about what happened to Arroyo's k/9 last year and in his second year in Pittsburgh. Those are the numbers of two completely different pitchers. If he can maintain this K rate and keep his walks down, there's no reason he can't see continued success, even with the homers.


I agree.

Jr's Boy
09-19-2006, 01:03 PM
From an economics standpoint I'd have to take Arroyo.Plus he has big game experience coming from Boston.

zombielady
09-19-2006, 02:47 PM
From an economics standpoint I'd have to take Arroyo.Plus he has big game experience coming from Boston.

That and he's cute! :D

Cyclone792
09-19-2006, 03:17 PM
I'm really curious about what happened to Arroyo's k/9 last year and in his second year in Pittsburgh. Those are the numbers of two completely different pitchers. If he can maintain this K rate and keep his walks down, there's no reason he can't see continued success, even with the homers.

Earlier this year some SOSH posters theorized that the league had caught up with Arroyo's tendencies and scouted him well, particularly AL East teams who saw Arroyo quite a bit.

I was toying around with some stuff and decided to throw it out there among the masses ...

2004 AL East K/9: 6.38
2005 AL East K/9: 3.72

2004 non AL East K/9: 7.68
2005 non AL East K/9: 5.04

It seems tough to draw any conclusions from isolating the AL East as there was a hefty drop in K/9 across the board.

2004 Home K/9: 6.90
2005 Home K/9: 4.10

2004 Road K/9: 7.34
2005 Road K/9: 4.70

Interesting that he had a slightly higher road K/9 in both seasons, but again the drop was across the board and not isolated to either factor.

RHB PA/K 2004: 4.04 (364 total PA)
RHB PA/K 2005: 7.36 (368 total PA)

LHB PA/K 2004: 7.69 (400 total PA)
LHB PA/K 2005: 10.20 (510 total PA)

Still a drop across the board, however, he did face a larger percentage of LHB in 2005 and than in 2004 so that can explain a portion of his K/9 drop.

Arroyo does have a history of getting torn up by elite hitters, or hitters that typically bat in the third/fourth spots of a team's batting order. From 2003-2005, Arroyo's OPS against vs. #3 order hitters was .961 along with an OPS against vs. #4 order hitters of 1.046. This season those figures are down to .852 and .737 against #3 and #4 order hitters, respectively. It is possible, perhaps probable, that he's faced fewer left-handed elite hitters this season than last season, but last season's K/9 is still such a large discrepancy.

It's definitely interesting, that's for sure.

Strikes Out Looking
09-19-2006, 03:28 PM
I'm just happy we can have this thread. The Reds are 2/5 of the way towards a really good starting rotation. If they can get to 4/5 they are perpetual playoff contenders.