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View Full Version : A slightly different approach to Dunn



RedsManRick
09-29-2006, 12:09 PM
Pretend that Adam Dunn is a free agent this year. Assume that he has no predispotion to play for a given team, be it Reds, Astros, or otherwise. It's all about the benjamins.

1.) What deal would you offer?
2.) What is the best deal you think he'd get (and from whom)?

registerthis
09-29-2006, 12:28 PM
Pretend that Adam Dunn is a free agent this year. Assume that he has no predispotion to play for a given team, be it Reds, Astros, or otherwise. It's all about the benjamins.

1.) What deal would you offer?
2.) What is the best deal you think he'd get (and from whom)?

I'd offer him 3 years, $27 million, and throw in some bonuses for winning the home run title or something similar.

Since I think that'd be a fair deal for him, it's hard to imagine what he *could* get, since different teams value different things. I could see a team stocked with high average hitters, but who lacks a dominant power threat in the lineup, pursuing him and offering him more. Something in the realm of $10-$12 million a year wouldn't be out of the question for a consistent 40 homer guy who is entering his prime years.

klw
09-29-2006, 12:38 PM
Well here is another question that I don't know has been discussed too much yet and that is whether the Reds should exercise the 2008 option on Dunn.
When Dunn signed his contract this spring he got salaries of $7.5 million for this season and $10.5 million for 2007. The club has an option for a $13 million salary in 2008, which it can buy out for $500,000. I am on the fence and obviously would depend on the trade options, Bruce's and Stubbs' development etc. In terms of his contract, the numbers are similar to Sexson who has always struck me as being a guide for Dunn's value though always a couple of years older. If Dunn performs at a similar level in early '07 to his performance this year, should the Reds pick up his option for '08?

redsfan4445
09-29-2006, 12:41 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

pedro
09-29-2006, 01:15 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

I would.

Johnny Footstool
09-29-2006, 01:35 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

Who wouldn't?

Berkman is second only to Pujols in the NL.

Z-Fly
09-29-2006, 01:37 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

I like Dunn but I know he could never play centerfield for any stretch of time like Berk did.

registerthis
09-29-2006, 01:49 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

In a heartbeat.

texasdave
09-29-2006, 01:52 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

.....and I'd drive Dunn to the airport.

justincredible
09-29-2006, 01:53 PM
Would you trade Dunn for Berkman? curious

Dunn is my favorite player but I would trade him for Berkman in a heartbeat.

SultanOfSwing
09-29-2006, 02:03 PM
Who wouldn't?

Berkman is second only to Pujols in the NL.

What happened to Howard? Did he just get traded to the AL? Soriano would probably enter into that discussion based upon his 2006 season.

registerthis
09-29-2006, 02:07 PM
What happened to Howard? Did he just get traded to the AL? Soriano would probably enter into that discussion based upon his 2006 season.

I think i'd need to see another season similar to 2006 from each of them to place them on the same plane as Pujols or Berkman. Although, I will say that Soriano putting up the power numbers that he has this season while playing in the MLB equivalent of the Grand Canyon is beyond impressive.

SultanOfSwing
09-29-2006, 02:21 PM
I think i'd need to see another season similar to 2006 from each of them to place them on the same plane as Pujols or Berkman. Although, I will say that Soriano putting up the power numbers that he has this season while playing in the MLB equivalent of the Grand Canyon is beyond impressive.

Soriano I agree with, I would like to see another season like this from him. But what has Howard done not to deserve these comparisons? He is almost 5 years younger than Berkman. He has not played for 1.5 seasons and both have been better than anything Berkman has ever done. Pitchers fear Howard more than Berkman (and even Pujols ??). The power is incomparable. IMO, Howard is in a class above Berkman, even this early in his career.

LoganBuck
09-29-2006, 02:24 PM
What are the odds that the season ends and we find out that Dunn has been playing with some undisclosed injury so as to justify his 2nd half performance?

registerthis
09-29-2006, 02:26 PM
Soriano I agree with, I would like to see another season like this from him. But what has Howard done not to deserve these comparisons? He is almost 5 years younger than Berkman. He has not played for 1.5 seasons and both have been better than anything Berkman has ever done. Pitchers fear Howard more than Berkman (and even Pujols ??). The power is incomparable. IMO, Howard is in a class above Berkman, even this early in his career.

Howard is not as young as some people think he may be--he is, in fact, the same age as Dunn, who has been in the majors three years longer than Howard.

I'm certainly not knocking Howard, he's having an unbelieveable season and I'd be more than happy to have him on the Reds. But Berkman and Pujols have consistently produced season after season after season. If Howard comes back next year and even approaches what he has done this year, I'll happily elevate him to the same status as each of them. But I'm not prepared to do that with Howard quite yet.

registerthis
09-29-2006, 02:26 PM
What are the odds that the season ends and we find out that Dunn has been playing with some undisclosed injury so as to justify his 2nd half performance?

Well he played with a broken hand last year, didn't he?

RedsManRick
09-29-2006, 04:07 PM
So.......... dolllar values anybody? The idea here was how much you sign Dunn for as a FA and what you think the market puts him at.

Johnny Footstool
09-29-2006, 05:35 PM
Soriano I agree with, I would like to see another season like this from him. But what has Howard done not to deserve these comparisons? He is almost 5 years younger than Berkman. He has not played for 1.5 seasons and both have been better than anything Berkman has ever done. Pitchers fear Howard more than Berkman (and even Pujols ??). The power is incomparable. IMO, Howard is in a class above Berkman, even this early in his career.

This season, Howard has been better than Berkman, but the margin is not all that wide.

But Berkman has a career .983 OPS, has beaten 1.000 OPS three times, and aside from his rookie callup, has never had an OPS under .927.

Howard still has to prove he can repeat his high level of performance. Berkman has proven it many times.

BRM
09-29-2006, 05:38 PM
Berkman was the 16th pick in 1997. The Reds took Brandon Larson with the 14th pick that year.

GridironGrace
09-29-2006, 06:10 PM
I like the 3 years AROUND 30 million stage... But the incentives i give are

1. You play where i say.. if you play 50% at 1B cause i want you too u'll get a bonus

2. Less than 100 K's Do this and you get a HUGE incentive say....3million i wanna MAKE HIM wanna get better at the plate and put more balls in play.

3. HR Champ = money as well

with those kinds of incentives you make a great player strive and work hard to do better and to adapt more contact in his swing. You also leave the door open to OFFER 3 years 20 mil first and get him cheaper

registerthis
09-29-2006, 06:58 PM
2. Less than 100 K's Do this and you get a HUGE incentive say....3million i wanna MAKE HIM wanna get better at the plate and put more balls in play.

3. HR Champ = money as well

You do realize that these two incentives are contradictory, right?

Natty Redlocks
09-29-2006, 07:37 PM
What are the odds that the season ends and we find out that Dunn has been playing with some undisclosed injury so as to justify his 2nd half performance?

If you look at his career numbers, he always has a great July, starts declining in August, and is practically useless by September. That was the pattern before this season.

jnwohio
09-30-2006, 02:01 AM
If you look at his career numbers, he always has a great July, starts declining in August, and is practically useless by September. That was the pattern before this season.

That doesn't rule out that he may often play hurt in the last half and possibly even supports that theory.

I wonder if Dunn himself or anybody with the organization have ever considered that less might yield more, i.e. he might actually produce more if he were played less becasue he would experience less wear and tear and not be dead on his feet in the last 6 weeks of the season.

Natty Redlocks
09-30-2006, 06:21 AM
That doesn't rule out that he may often play hurt in the last half and possibly even supports that theory.

I wonder if Dunn himself or anybody with the organization have ever considered that less might yield more, i.e. he might actually produce more if he were played less becasue he would experience less wear and tear and not be dead on his feet in the last 6 weeks of the season.

I've wondered that myself. I'd rather have him sit out one game a week all year if it meant he'd keep producing. I just can't see them doing that, though. You have to admit, if he could DH, that would be a big help, which is why I could definitely see him flourishing in the AL.

mth123
09-30-2006, 07:33 AM
I could see a team like Baltimore offering quite a lot. Baltimore strikes me as the team that would go the most nuts moneywise. Maybe 5/75. I would think that Seattle, San Diego and the Angels would be after him hard as well. If the question includes taking the current landscape into account, San Diego would have Klesko and Giles coming off the books and they have a CF that can cover for him. Dunn is the kind of guy that has enough power to consistently HR in the big park. Angels are similar with Erstad, Kennedy, Salmon and Weaver off the books but I am making an educated guess that Soriano would be the top target there. Seattle has discussed Ichiro in CF to make room for a big power bat in a corner.

Houston would probably go after him with a home town discount in mind. Maybe 5/65. Bagwell is finally off the books in 2007. (IIRC they didn't really have time to spend the insurance money in 2006 because of the uncertainty and timing of the issues involved.)

If Dunn was a free agent I think it would take at least 4 Years at about $13 Million per year to sign him and that might not get it done unless he is motivated to play in that city. I have no idea if Cincinnati is on that list.

Maldez
10-01-2006, 12:24 AM
Berkman knows how to hit. Adam Dunn is just strong as an ox and relies on brute force and the law of averages to get him by. In 90% of his ABs he gives the impression of being absolutely lost up there. He routinely takes the first pitch which is almost always a batting practice fast ball right down the middle. That sets up the pitcher to throw him just about anything else on pitch 2 because Dunn'll be hackin'.....and missin'.

Once Dunn's 0-2 it's a foregone conclusion that he's gonna whiff, even in his own mind. He'll generally wave at the third strike with an almost "who gives a ****" effort.

I don't know if I can take another 15 of watching that ****.

fearofpopvol1
10-01-2006, 02:40 PM
Berkman knows how to hit. Adam Dunn is just strong as an ox and relies on brute force and the law of averages to get him by. In 90% of his ABs he gives the impression of being absolutely lost up there. He routinely takes the first pitch which is almost always a batting practice fast ball right down the middle. That sets up the pitcher to throw him just about anything else on pitch 2 because Dunn'll be hackin'.....and missin'.

Once Dunn's 0-2 it's a foregone conclusion that he's gonna whiff, even in his own mind. He'll generally wave at the third strike with an almost "who gives a ****" effort.

I don't know if I can take another 15 of watching that ****.

I completely agree. Additionally, pitchers aren't stupid. They have him figured out and capitalize off of this. His only saving grace are inexperienced pitchers or ones that accidentally mislocate a pitch.

Johnny Footstool
10-01-2006, 03:51 PM
Berkman knows how to hit. Adam Dunn is just strong as an ox and relies on brute force and the law of averages to get him by. In 90% of his ABs he gives the impression of being absolutely lost up there. He routinely takes the first pitch which is almost always a batting practice fast ball right down the middle. That sets up the pitcher to throw him just about anything else on pitch 2 because Dunn'll be hackin'.....and missin'.

Once Dunn's 0-2 it's a foregone conclusion that he's gonna whiff, even in his own mind. He'll generally wave at the third strike with an almost "who gives a ****" effort.

I don't know if I can take another 15 of watching that ****.

Then quit watching.

RANDY IN INDY
10-01-2006, 05:26 PM
While I would agree, I hope your intellectual weight doesn't get questioned on that response, Johnny.;)

Johnny Footstool
10-01-2006, 06:29 PM
I'm not worried, Randy.