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View Full Version : What level does Homer start next year?



reds44
10-01-2006, 01:34 PM
Go.

Matt700wlw
10-01-2006, 01:38 PM
He'll start at AAA, but he won't be there long, I wouldn't think.

Always Red
10-01-2006, 01:46 PM
AAA

Plan your staff like he's not going to be there; ie- bring in a FA pitcher, a #2-3 type to add to Harang and Arroyo.

If Homer's tearing it up again, or if (when) someone goes down, bring him up in May or early June. Because I think he'll struggle a little bit right away, but having most of the season in front of him will give him time to get settled and adjust.

By the end of 2007, he's at least the Reds #3 starter, IMO.

TeamBoone
10-01-2006, 01:54 PM
Krivsky said in the booth the other night that he'll probably start in Louisville... he feels AAA is very important in a player's development.

WMR
10-01-2006, 02:05 PM
Meet your opening day starter: HOMER BAILEY! ;)

Nah, I chose AAA.

Falls City Beer
10-01-2006, 02:07 PM
I couldn't possibly care less if he's not with the big club, where he should be. He can be washing cars for all I care. He's got nothing to learn at AAA or AA.

redsfanmia
10-01-2006, 02:32 PM
No reasone to start his arbitration clock, leave him in the minors for atleast 2 more years.

Matt700wlw
10-01-2006, 02:35 PM
No reasone to start his arbitration clock, leave him in the minors for atleast 2 more years.

Sounds like old management....

I don't think that's an issue anymore

redsfanmia
10-01-2006, 04:12 PM
Sounds like old management....

I don't think that's an issue anymore

I was being stupid, like I am often. I think that David would be great as the 4th starter next year but it sounds like from Krivsky that unless he is lights out in the spring that he will start the season at AAA.:bang:

GAC
10-01-2006, 08:55 PM
I couldn't possibly care less if he's not with the big club, where he should be. He can be washing cars for all I care. He's got nothing to learn at AAA or AA.

That is not what his coaches say at AA. While they believe he is the "real deal", the areas where he still needs work is with his change-up and breaking ball (especially vs lefties).

I believe they'll start him at AAA, and go from there.

But success at AA, and vs AA hitting is not a guarantee of success vs ML level hitting. Big difference IMO.

He'll be up here soon enough.

George Foster
10-01-2006, 10:33 PM
It all depends on how he pitches in Spring Training. Jerry wanted him called up this year. K would have a hard time telling Jerry "no" again if Homer kicks butt in Florida.

Caveat Emperor
10-01-2006, 11:26 PM
I couldn't possibly care less if he's not with the big club, where he should be. He can be washing cars for all I care. He's got nothing to learn at AAA or AA.

Except that whole pesky third pitch thing.

If his change is down, then he should start the year at AAA and get proficient at working deeper into ballgames and retiring better hitters. AAA would be a tune-up stop for him where he can get some experience facing guys with ML service time before making the jump up to the show.

If his change isn't down, then he needs to repeat AA and learn to throw it for strikes. He can't get by as a big-league starter with just two pitches -- he'll kill his arm trying to put everything on his fastball if he thinks that is the only weapon he has against hitters.

oregonred
10-02-2006, 01:25 AM
No reasone to start his arbitration clock, leave him in the minors for atleast 2 more years.


Yeah, let's make sure the intriguing 3-man rotation anchor window of Harang + Arroyo + Homer can't ever happen. let him miss out on learning from two workhorses that get almost max results for their talents.

I'd like to see another 8-10 Michalak starts down the stretch drive in 2007...

Barring unforeseen derailing, Homer ought to be up with the club by Memorial Day at the lastest and in the rotation starting after July 4th...

MrCinatit
10-02-2006, 06:56 AM
He will start in AAA, me thinks.
I think they will keep him pretty late during Spring Training, unless he gets absolutely bombed. Of course in doing so, that will bring many to assume he is going north with the big club - until he is sent down the last week, or so.

Falls City Beer
10-02-2006, 09:32 AM
Except that whole pesky third pitch thing.

If his change is down, then he should start the year at AAA and get proficient at working deeper into ballgames and retiring better hitters. AAA would be a tune-up stop for him where he can get some experience facing guys with ML service time before making the jump up to the show.

If his change isn't down, then he needs to repeat AA and learn to throw it for strikes. He can't get by as a big-league starter with just two pitches -- he'll kill his arm trying to put everything on his fastball if he thinks that is the only weapon he has against hitters.

He'll dominate AAA. And he'll still not have worked out his third pitch. That's just more mileage on his arm that the Reds aren't seeing the benefit of. Now if the idea is to leave him at AAA to send his trade value to the roof, then sign me up. Otherwise, this organization is just putting mileage on an arm that could be used on the big team. Use him or trade him.

oneupper
10-02-2006, 09:58 AM
If ST is the determining factor, he'll be in Cincinnati come April.

The first few weeks of ST the competition is AA and AAA anyway, so he shouldn't have any problems with that. Once he does that...it will be difficult to leave him behind (partcularly if he has been promised a shot).

That doesn't mean he'll dominate with the Reds, though (hope he does).

TRF
10-02-2006, 02:47 PM
I couldn't possibly care less if he's not with the big club, where he should be. He can be washing cars for all I care. He's got nothing to learn at AAA or AA.

Stamina, third pitch, being effective by lowering his pitch count, finding some way to pitch into the 7th inning.

Those might be good to learn in the minor leagues. I vote AA. He needs to be as dominant as he was, but pitching deeper into the game. AA is a good place to do that.

flyer85
10-02-2006, 02:49 PM
Stamina, third pitch, being effective by lowering his pitch count, finding some way to pitch into the 7th inning.if that was the qualification a bunch of Marlins pitchers would not have spent time at the major league level in 2006. Instead they showed they could hone their craft and still be effective while helping the team win.

BRM
10-02-2006, 02:54 PM
if that was the qualification a bunch of Marlins pitchers would not have spent time at the major league level in 2006. Instead they showed they could hone their craft and still be effective while helping the team win.

I'd rather the Reds use soft tossing veterans that lack an out pitch over youngsters with upside.

Caveat Emperor
10-02-2006, 08:35 PM
He'll dominate AAA. And he'll still not have worked out his third pitch. That's just more mileage on his arm that the Reds aren't seeing the benefit of. Now if the idea is to leave him at AAA to send his trade value to the roof, then sign me up. Otherwise, this organization is just putting mileage on an arm that could be used on the big team. Use him or trade him.

If he can't throw a third pitch, then the franchise needs to jettison him now while he still has value as a starter.

End of story.

Falls City Beer
10-02-2006, 08:50 PM
If he can't throw a third pitch, then the franchise needs to jettison him now while he still has value as a starter.

End of story.


Or he can hone it at the MLB level.

I'm much more worried about the longevity of his arm than I am his ability to develop a third pitch. Get some mileage out of his arm. Don't let him have TJ surgery following a pitch to Donnie Sadler; let him do it against Scott Rolen.

Highlifeman21
10-03-2006, 04:03 AM
If he can't throw a third pitch, then the franchise needs to jettison him now while he still has value as a starter.

End of story.

Not only is he a two pitch wonder, he's a two pitch wonder that can't consistently throw them for strikes.

I agree, we should entertain offers for young Bailey.

Aronchis
10-03-2006, 05:03 AM
Not only is he a two pitch wonder, he's a two pitch wonder that can't consistently throw them for strikes.

I agree, we should entertain offers for young Bailey.

He can't throw them for strikes? Sure he can. His fastball pretty much was under control the entire season. His curveball was pretty darn close by the late summer. Those are the 2 basic elements of a pitcher like Bailey, you don't need much else at this stage of his career. The changeup is for when he gets older and tones down his speed. Finish honing his curve into a strike throwing machine, you thus have no issues.

Topcat
10-03-2006, 07:38 AM
Double AA I hope at this time I truly do not see the need to David Clyde him. Let him start in dbl aa and progress as the season goes.

TRF
10-03-2006, 09:15 AM
if that was the qualification a bunch of Marlins pitchers would not have spent time at the major league level in 2006. Instead they showed they could hone their craft and still be effective while helping the team win.

Honestly, there is no comparison to the Marlins. First, their farm is STOCKED with high ceiling pitching prospects. The Reds have Bailey, Cueto and Wood. Maybe you add LeCure to that list. All four of those guys started at high A or lower this year.

Second, the Marlins slashed payroll to the extreme. A 15 million dollar payroll. Really, other than Willis, who is under contract, the Fish didn't want a name FA pitcher.

The starters for the Fish persevered despite the fact they were likely rushed a bit, not because of it.

Highlifeman21
10-03-2006, 01:52 PM
He can't throw them for strikes? Sure he can. His fastball pretty much was under control the entire season. His curveball was pretty darn close by the late summer. Those are the 2 basic elements of a pitcher like Bailey, you don't need much else at this stage of his career. The changeup is for when he gets older and tones down his speed. Finish honing his curve into a strike throwing machine, you thus have no issues.

Bailey has a deadly love for his fastball.

Your statement about his curveball asserts that he had no consistency over the course of the season. He had success at the end, and marginal at that.

By only being a 2 pitch guy, you limit your out chances, and you increase the chances for the other team to know what's coming with each delivery. 50-50 chance it's either fastball or curveball. I like those odds, as a MLB hitter.

Give him a 3rd pitch, let him turn one of the 3 into a true out pitch, and we might actually have something with this kid.

It's not only about throwing pitches for strikes, but rather throwing the pitches where you want them.

flyer85
10-03-2006, 02:05 PM
Bailey reminds me a lot of the young Prior. Great fastball over which he has command and a hammer curve ball and no third pitch. But then again when you have a 97MPH and a buckling curve ball, throwing the batter a third pitch is generally doing them a big favor.

Bailey easily handled what is considered the toughest jump in minor league baseball(A to AA).

Does he need a more seasoning? probably.

However, the Reds are very unlikely to have a better option for the 5th starter than Bailey going in to the 2007 season.

Aronchis
10-03-2006, 03:31 PM
Bailey has a deadly love for his fastball.

Your statement about his curveball asserts that he had no consistency over the course of the season. He had success at the end, and marginal at that.

By only being a 2 pitch guy, you limit your out chances, and you increase the chances for the other team to know what's coming with each delivery. 50-50 chance it's either fastball or curveball. I like those odds, as a MLB hitter.

Give him a 3rd pitch, let him turn one of the 3 into a true out pitch, and we might actually have something with this kid.

It's not only about throwing pitches for strikes, but rather throwing the pitches where you want them.

Give me a consistant hammer curve instead. The 3rd pitch is a slow, but steady progress, but not overly required for Bailey's present progress. That is the curve.

Cedric
10-03-2006, 03:36 PM
Bailey has a deadly love for his fastball.

Your statement about his curveball asserts that he had no consistency over the course of the season. He had success at the end, and marginal at that.

By only being a 2 pitch guy, you limit your out chances, and you increase the chances for the other team to know what's coming with each delivery. 50-50 chance it's either fastball or curveball. I like those odds, as a MLB hitter.

Give him a 3rd pitch, let him turn one of the 3 into a true out pitch, and we might actually have something with this kid.

It's not only about throwing pitches for strikes, but rather throwing the pitches where you want them.

That's a myth. Most major league pitchers don't throw their third pitch enough to really make a difference. Harang and Arroyo on this team give you a perfect example of that.