View Full Version : Quick '07 Draft Preview

Homer's Ghost
10-02-2006, 08:59 PM
From Brewerfan.net

2007 Draft
The Brewers enjoyed a taste of what it's like to draft outside of not only the top 10 picks, but the first half of the first round. With a disappointing season the Brewers are poised to draft in the top 10 once again. As of games played through September 18, with a 68-82 record (a .453 winning percentage), the Brewers would draft seventh in next year's draft. The Brewers last drafted seventh overall in 2002 when they selected Prince Fielder. Being able to draft a player like Fielder is about the only silver lining you can take from a season like this.

While the 2006 draft crop was considered relatively weak, the 2007 group is considered quite strong. There is an exciting player at every position from both the college and high school levels. In other words, there will be something for everyone. There is also very good premium talent at the top supplemented by a fair amount of depth.

Most consider the top prospect overall to be left-handed pitcher David Price from Vanderbilt. He was named Baseball America's player of the summer for his amazing performance pitching for Team USA. That marked his second tour with Team USA, and he has two very good seasons at Vandy under his belt as well. He's a prototypical staff ace, with a 6'6" projectable frame and a very impressive and complete arsenal. However, I'm going to buck the trend and make Matt Wieters my top overall prospect heading into next spring. For me Price and Wieters are really prospects 1A and 1B, much like Mark Teixeira and Mark Prior were considered near equals entering the spring of 2001. If I had the first overall pick right now I would take Wieters given his productivity at every level he has played, with both a metal and wood bat while considering his switch-hitting ability, his leadership skills and the fact that he's a catcher. Prepare yourself for Jason Varitek (who also attended Georgia Tech) comparisons when it comes to Wieters.

The biggest and more specific strengths in next year's draft are the number and depth of powerful arms at the high school level, prep third basemen, college closers and college lefties in general.

High School
1. Josh Vitters, 3B, Anaheim, CA
2. Rick Porcello, RHP, Chester, NJ
3. Michael Main, RHP, Deltona, FL
4. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mystic, CT
5. Tanner Robles, LHP, Murray, UT
6. Michael Burgess, RF, Tampa, FL
7. Jason Heyward, 1B, McDonough, GA
8. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Virginia Beach, VA
9. Justin Jackson, SS, Asheville, NC
10. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Lenoir, NC

Prep notes:
Similar to last year, we're probably going to see the high school pitchers jockey for position all spring long. There were several pitchers that stood out at the major showcase and tournament events over the summer of 2006, with a new name performing particularly well from event to event. Rick Porcello and Madison Bumgarner are two arms that pitched well almost the entire summer. Michael Main and Matt Harvey may have the strongest arms, but they also may need the most polish. Main is an exciting overall prospect that could be drafted very high as a multi-tooled outfielder, but his near-100 mph fastball means his future lies on the mound. Tanner Robles is about as smooth as they come from the left side, and Ramirez is about as polished as they come. Throw righties Sam Runion (Asheville, NC), Erik Goeddel (Hillsborough, CA), Greg Peavey (Vancouver, WA) and Tim Alderson (Pheonix, AZ) as well as lefty Joshua Smoker (Sugar Valley, GA) onto the polished pitcher pile. Michael Burgess and Jason Heyward bring the power, and if you're looking for a slick all-around shortstop, you have two to choose from: Justin Jackson and Christian Colon (Anaheim Hills, CA). Josh Vitters sits at the top of my list, proving all summer long that he has the best present day skills of any high school player. He performed well at every major stop, hitting the best pitchers in the nation along the way. Vitters may not be a third baseman in the long run, but his bat should make that concern irrelevant. Matt Dominguez (Van Nuys, CA) and Victor Sanchez (Norwalk, CA) add to the depth of talented third baseman. Outfielder Kentrail Davis (Theodore, AL) and infielder John Tolisano (Sanibel, FL) gives the prep ranks two more polished all-around players with very good present hitting skills.

1. Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
2. David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
3. Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State
4. J.P. Arencibia, C, Tennessee
5. Sean Doolittle, LHP/1B, Virginia
6. Joe Savery, LHP/1B, Rice
7. Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia
8. Matt Mangini, 3B, Oklahoma
9. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
10. Bryan Augenstein, RHP, Florida

College notes:
I already talked about Price and Wieters above, so I'll start with the 7' tall Andrew Brackman here. Brackman reportedly has already decided not to play basketball for the Wolfpack this year. You know with his stature scouts are already drooling over his future potential. J.P. Arencibia gives the draft class another solid catching prospect with a proven bat. Sean Doolittle and Joe Savery both pitch and hit nearly equally well, although both are currently preferred as pitchers given their polish and power repertoires. Add two more SEC lefties, Nick Schmidt and James Adkins (Tennessee) to face David Price at some point next spring, and throw two lefty relievers in the mix when you're talking about potential first-rounders: Cole St. Clair (Rice) and Daniel Moskos (Clemson). The best reliever available is Georgia's Josh Fields, whose high 80s slider makes his mid-90s fastball look like a pretty good pitch to hit. If Doolittle isn't drafted as a hitter, Matt Mangini likely takes the honors as the best pure hitter. Bryan Augenstein burst onto the prospect scene as a sophomore at Florida, one of the few Gators that actually had a good year. It's a good year for shortstops in the college ranks as well. Take you pick from Rutgers' Todd Frazier, Mississippi's Zach Cozart, Arizona State's Andrew Romine, Rice's Brian Friday, Oregon State's Darwin Barney and North Carolina's Josh Horton. In the polished pitcher category, Wes Roemer (Cal State Fullerton) leads the way, who worked 50+ innings last spring before issuing a single walk. Right-handed pitchers Sean Morgan (Tulane), James Simmons (UC Riverside), Wynn Pelzer (South Carolina), Brad Meyers (Loyola Marymount), Sam Demel (TCU) and Eddie Kunz (Oregon State) could all find themselves taken in the first round with big springs.

Predicting who the Brewers will take is no easy task, especially this far in advance. One thing is for sure, until Jack Zduriencik selects a college pitcher in the first two rounds, something he has yet to do as scouting director of the Milwaukee Brewers (since 2000), I'll look elsewhere. If the team is looking to address an organizational need like when they took Ryan Braun in 2005, a catcher might be the way to go, especially since next year's draft looks particularly strong at the position.

While Zduriencik hasn't taken a college pitcher in the first two rounds of the draft, he hasn't selected a high school pitcher in the first round two years in a row. That leads me to a bat, and given the love for tools I am going to single out Tampa's Michael Burgess, who not only has the power potential as a left-handed hitter to rival Prince Fielder's, but also has incredible arm strength that would make him a natural fit in right field.


10-03-2006, 10:31 AM
Brackman's the kid from Cincinnati, right?

It's early, but he might not be a bad one to take.

10-03-2006, 11:41 AM
Brackman's the kid from Cincinnati, right?

It's early, but he might not be a bad one to take.

Yeah, Moeller. He throws high nineties and is obviously a great, great all around athlete.

10-03-2006, 12:55 PM
Matt Wieters is the weirdest combination of a both ways player I've seen in a while.

Stud hitter. Stud catcher. Stud closer.

And if you would have asked about the 2007 draft last year, Joe Savery would have been the runaway choice for No. 1 overall pick. Big power Lefty, who is also a monster hitter at first base. Watch his stock rise and fall this year.

Edd Roush
10-03-2006, 01:04 PM
Yeah, Moeller. He throws high nineties and is obviously a great, great all around athlete.

Yep, Brackman is a fellow Moeller grad. In fact, my best friend is Brack's cousin. I am actually surprised to hear that he is quitting basketball. Obviously his future lies with baseball, but he always told me he liked basketball a lot. It's nice to see him ranked so high, it's too sad the Reds aren't going to be able to get ahold of his 6'11 frame and 99 mph reaching fastball. Brack is a complete stud, some say the righty Randy Johnson.

Although a potential problem with Brack is his injury risk, I remember his senior year in high school he had tendinitis and i know last year he had injury problems as well. Hopefully he overcomes them and reaches his full potential.

10-03-2006, 01:07 PM
I like Brackman too, problem aside from Johnson nearly everyone of these giants since him have had arm problems.

Edd Roush
10-03-2006, 01:10 PM
I like Brackman too, problem aside from Johnson nearly everyone of these giants since him have had arm problems.

Yep, that's why I heard he wasn't selected highly out of Moeller. Scouts are very leery of his height and worry that his long arms will lead to future mechanical difficulties. If teams are worried about injuries among their top draft picks, they most likely won't go for Brack.

10-03-2006, 01:38 PM
Scouts are very leery of his height and worry that his long arms will lead to future mechanical difficulties.

I think I'd avoid a 7-footer with some injury history. But what do I know...

The drumbeat has been consistent -- lotta good top end talent in 07. Nice to hear when the Reds are picking 15th.

10-03-2006, 02:06 PM
I am actually surprised to hear that he is quitting basketball. Obviously his future lies with baseball, but he always told me he liked basketball a lot.

I think it makes perfect sense though. He is draft eligible this year, and will probably be a top 10 pick barring an injury or totally horrible season. He has advisors Im sure, and if I were one, I would advise him not to take the chance of an injury playing basketball that could cost him millions.

10-03-2006, 02:15 PM
I'd never say anything bad about Coach Cameron, but many have questioned the way the kid was used at Moeller.

My prediction for 1st overall pick: David Price.

Edd Roush
10-03-2006, 02:26 PM
I am in no way saying that it doesn't make perfect sense. I guess now he's really gearing up for his professional career. Up until now, it seems like he just wanted to be a young adult and have fun playing basketball and have fun like any college student. Looks like now, by giving up his summer to play on the USA team and finally giving up basketball, Brack is really gearing up for his major league career.

10-04-2006, 11:57 AM
Scott Boras is representing Andrew Brackman, reportedly Matt Wieters and Justin Jackson, and has been after JP Arencibia iirc. I know for sure he's representing Brackman.

Unless something happens, Price is going to go #1 overall. He's better than Andrew Miller, from everything I've heard. He hit 98 on some guns this summer, has advanced secondary pitches, and a terrific frame for a power pitcher. The only knock on him has been his mechanics, where he has a bit of a dip in his delivery. He doesn't throw in a single fluid motion and instead whips his arm a bit. This apparently is an easily correctable problem and helps with his deception, so it shouldn't hurt his stock too much.

Wieters is an incredible hitter. There are a number of questions about his ability to stay behind the dish at catcher, though. He has a rather large body and enough athleticism to move to 3B, 1B, RF, or LF. He has a terrific combination of power, patience, and the ability to hit for average. His arm is pretty good, but that bat is just incredible. He has the potential to be the best college hitter since Texeira.

Two of the best relief prospects out there are Cole St. Clair (RHP, mid-high 90s, curve, change) and Daniel Moskos (lefty, mid-high 90s, great slider).

Savery hurt his shoulder and underwent surgery, which was why he didn't play in the Cape Cod League. We'll see how he bounces back from it this season, as apparently it wasn't anything too serious.

Doolittle is probably going to be drafted as a 1B, since he's been having arm trouble and is an extreme FB pitcher (I want to say something in the neighborhood of a .3 GO/FO ratio). He's terrific defensively and is a pretty good hitter, to his advantage.

The key thing to this draft will be whether or not MLB decides to do away with compensatory picks. If that's the case, things might get really interesting considering this draft is rather loaded, imo.

I'll addmore later, but I gotta run to class.

10-07-2006, 01:16 PM
David, tampa: Jim, who are some of the candidates for TB with the top pick in the '07 draft?

SportsNation Jim Callis: Here's the top of the sneak preview that John Manuel is working on for our issue:
1. David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt
2. Matt Weiters, c, Georgia Tech
3. Andrew Brackman, rhp, North Carolina State
4. Matt Harvey, rhp, Fitch HS, Groton, Conn.
5. Justin Jackson, ss, Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.

I'll add a bit more to the fun here. :D

One thing I forgot to mention about David Price is his athleticism. For a guy his size (6'6), he has terrific agility and awareness around the mound. Some scouts, coaches, and draftniks seem to think that he has a chance to be a gold glove pitcher, given this talent. If all things go according to plan, he should be ML-ready when he's drafted. That's not to say he'll be a finished product, but his stuff is already so good that he could come in to any team right away and be a productive starting pitcher. Whether or not that happens is anyone's guess.

I was in a bit of a rush when I was typing up my evaluation of Wieters and I noticed a mistake I made. His arm isn't pretty good; it's terrific. If he weren't a position player, he'd be a reliever and would still be a darn good prospect. He's touched 97 on his fastball in the past and could have ended up becoming a talented reliever. However, you simply cannot ignore how good his bat is. There is a really good reason why the Prior/Teixeira comparisons are being thrown around with Price and Wieters.

Brackman is going to be a fascinating study. I've seen him listed anywhere from 6'10 to 7'. However, there are a lot of things that work in his favor. For one, Brackman played basketball at NC State and for a period of time debated giving up baseball to focus on improving his skills and entering the NBA Draft. So, because he's split his time between the two sports (much like Jeff Samardzija in the last draft), he's still a bit rough around the edges. However, unlike Samardzija, his stuff is already fairly advanced and he has a decent degree of polish. He's not going to be one of those guys who needs to start from the ground up. Also, to his advantage, his arm doesn't have the mileage on it that some other guys in this draft do (more on that in a minute). He repeats his delivery, has three plus pitches (works 92-94 and has touched 97), plus a low arm angle, which can absolutely murder some hitters (see: Pujols). He's also pretty skinny. With some tall guys, you worry about their conditioning because they balloon up in a hurry. This guy won't be one of them. You'll instead worry about his endurance.

Matt Harvey is a RHP who's been competing with Michael Main and Robert Stock (until Stock committed to Southern Cal) for the top pitcher's spot in the draft. He has a projectable frame and already sits in the low 90s with his fastball. He's a pitcher from a mold similar to Chris Carpenter, with an over the top delivery, sitting in the low to mid 90s, with a big 12-6 curveball that completely fools hitters. He has a smooth delivery and clearly is the product of being the son of a coach who knows what he's doing.

Justin Jackson is indeed a Scott Boras client. Typically with Boras HS clients, they are incredibly tough signs (save for two years ago with Pawelek, who was the first official signee and paid slightly below slot). I don't know if that'll be the case with Jackson, considering most people see him as the top HS position player. The most important thing for him is that he is already polished defensively. Most scouts don't think he'll have to move to another position. He also has the complete package of tools, with most of them likely to end up as above average to plus. Coaches and scouts rave about him on and off the field. The only major concern I've seen with him is plate discipline. Not because people rag on it, but because people really don't talk about it. He could end up being really good at it...but I have no idea.

I'll talk a bit about Michael Main since I've seen plenty of people consider him as the top HS prospect overall. As a 15 year old, he was pitching 90-91. He has a large, imposing, and durable frame, reminiscent of Mike Mussina. His fastball sits at around 94 with good life. He's hit 97 on the radar gun on a few occasions. His curveball and change are both already good pitches. He has an injury history which seems to have finally cleared up. However, he has a tendency to overthrow and will have to iron out his mechanics.

That's all for now!

10-07-2006, 01:46 PM
I know we have an entire season and a lot can change but as of right now with the 15th pick are we look around Savery or lower?

10-24-2006, 12:41 PM
I haven't played against or heard much about any of those college guys other than Brackman. But we faced a kid named Detwiler from Missouri State last year who was hitting 94 from the left side with a plus curveball. Lot of rumors about him going mid 1st round.

10-24-2006, 02:48 PM
in fall ball back in HS Brackman k'd the first 8 batters in our game, no one even fouled one off. I managed to bloop a single off him as the 9th batter. I was proud of that.

10-24-2006, 04:27 PM
I managed to bloop a single off him as the 9th batter. I was proud of that.

Nice work.