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Ltlabner
10-03-2006, 01:12 PM
Hatteburg, Ross, Philips and RA all experienced "carear years" and it helped (along with a weak division) to keep the Reds in the hunt till the end of the season despite predictions, projections and prognostications.

My question is: Was the volume of carear years total conincidence or is there something about Krivsky/Narron/Orginization that helped foster an environment where these carear years could take place....?

One guy has a carear year and it's obviously a fluke. But 4 guys (seems there is someone else but I can't remember..maybe Weathers could be included)? Hatteburg and RA are both "old" and it's freakish that they'd play this well. Ross has never performed like this and Philips had "failed" with the Tribe. So 4 guys with 4 different sets of circumstances yet they all happen to have a carear year the same year.

I just wonder if there is some nebulas orgainizational culture change that has started to happen that will give an extra "boost" to players. Cynics will dimiss it as conicidence. Those who are in Krivsky's corner will likely say "of course, he's just that good". The truth is likely in the middle.

Hard to say, and harder to prove...but it seemed interesting to me.

guttle11
10-03-2006, 01:17 PM
Well, Phillips was projected to be like this his whole career, and even a few Indians players commented on his attitude being different in Cincy, so I don't think there's anything "fuzzy" there.

Hatteberg is just a good hitter, always has been. Finding a home in a hitter friendly park certainly didn't hurt.

Ross finally got the chance to be a regular.

Aurilia's always been productive when he plays a lot. But then again he did play with Bonds for a while...

With the Reds playing in GABP, we're going to see a lot of "career" years.

flyer85
10-03-2006, 01:17 PM
have to include Arroyo on the list as well.

My guess is was nothing but random good fortune.

In 2005 career years were had by Lopez, Valentin, Harang, Jr(career in the sense that he had a late in his career season unlikelyto be repeated).

BUTLER REDSFAN
10-03-2006, 01:33 PM
career

jpurdy974
10-03-2006, 01:34 PM
Aurilia had some pretty good years with the Giants. Over a 3 year span he averaged about .280, 25, and 80. He had a good year, but it compares a lot to that period. Phillips had more AB's in 2006 than he's had in his entire career, and he did what has been expected of him since his career began. With his small amount of major league experience, it's hard to call this year a career year since hopefully his career is just getting off the ground.

redsmetz
10-03-2006, 01:35 PM
I think if someone wears a helmet like this, they can avoid a "carear" year - I think this guy wore one his entire career.

http://www2.indystar.com/library/factfiles/sports/autoracing/img/harroun.jpg

flyer85
10-03-2006, 01:36 PM
Aurilia had some pretty good years with the Giants. Over a 3 year span he averaged about .280, 25, and 80. RA did not have a "career year" in the sense of his entire career but taking into account his age and how far he was removed from his best years what he did in 2006 could be called a late in his career "career year", similar to what Jr did in 2005.

remdog
10-03-2006, 01:46 PM
RA did not have a "career year" in the sense of his entire career but taking into account his age and how far he was removed from his best years what he did in 2006 could be called a late in his career "career year", similar to what Jr did in 2005.

When I think of 'career year' I think of someone that has shown no ability or propensity in the past to do anything close to what he has achieved in the year in question. To me, David Ross had a 'career year'. Hat is boarderline. The others, I wouldn't include.

Rem

SeeinRed
10-03-2006, 02:18 PM
When I think of 'career year' I think of someone that has shown no ability or propensity in the past to do anything close to what he has achieved in the year in question. To me, David Ross had a 'career year'. Hat is boarderline. The others, I wouldn't include.

Rem

I agree. Especially when talking about Aurillia. His "career years" were his years in San Fran. He is just a solid productive player. I would like to see him back next year. At times he carried this club. I don't think it is any coincidence that the first extended losing streak of this season occured when he was on the DL. Griffey was also on the DL at the same time, but I think that Aurillia was more of a factor. His defensive flexibility, which has only recently been developed, is very valuable.

On the other hand, I don't think that losing Aurillia would be a devestating blow to this team.

I would say that expecting Ross to play like he did in the first half of the season next year is just not realistic. He was put in a good situation, which helped get him going, but I think it had more to do with pitchers being unfamiliar with him because of limited playing time before this season.

As for Hatteberg, he is just an outstanding hitter, who came from the AL to the NL. He now plays in a hitters park. Again, he was put in a situation to succeed, but he is just a solid player. He is the prototypical professional hitter. Doesn't strike out, puts the ball in play more often than not. When you do that in GABP, your going to get some good results.

That is why Dunn's K totals are so disturbing. If he put the ball in play more often, he doesn't even have to get all of it, it will go out. Just think if some of those 190+ AB in which he struck out, he had hit the ball in play. Some of them would have gone out. When you don't even hit the ball, you don't stand a chance. The K's are the only thing keeping him from being an absolutely dominating hitter. I'm a supporter of Dunn, but the potential he holds if he cuts down the K's are absolutely scary. But I digress. Sorry for getting off topic.

Phillips is still developing into the player he will become. He shows signs that that player will be every bit as good, or even better than what he showed us this season. The future, however, isn't certain. We'll see. Its to early in his career to call this year a career year. I believe that Krivsky has found the proverbial diamond in the rough in him. He was given a second chance and capitalized on it. Again put in a situation to succeed.

flyer85
10-03-2006, 02:28 PM
As for Hatteberg, he is just an outstanding hitterNothing could be further from the truth. He is a patient, high contact hitter with little power and no speed.

Of the 28 1b who qualified at 1b with over 300 ABs Hatty was 19th in VORP. Just behind Youkilis and ahead of Mike Lamb. Very heady company.

Using VORPr(a rate stat) he was 18th.

Which means that during his "career year" he was still well below average for his position.

BronsonFan
10-03-2006, 05:07 PM
I don't know if Arroyo can pitch much better... but I don't see any reason for him to pitch worse.

Would a 2007 of... 16-10 220 IP 3.65 ERA surprise anyone?

He's a good pitcher in the prime of his career.