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SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 12:42 PM
What about this?

1)
LaRue (eat $2.5-3 mill., or Ross), Majik, Deno, and Wood or Aurilla/Harris
for
Vernon Wells

This fills Toronto's needs (C, IF, BP) more readily and might be more realistic. They need a DH as well (maybe Griffey, Majik, LaRue?) I dunno.

2)
Milton (eat $4-5 mil) and Coffey
for
Marcus Giles

The Braves need a SP and have almost no money to spend on the FA Market.

3) Dunn, Loshe, Shafer, Claussen
for
Ervin Santana, Brendan Donnelly, Howie Kendrick

or

Dunn
for
Rich Harden/Dan Haren/Joe Blanton, Kirk Saarloos
(I realize you may have to throw in some ML. Probably even more for Harden, but we could try)

or

Dunn, Hatteberg/Aurilla, Shafer
for
Joel Zumaya, Bonderman/Verlander/Robertson
(I realize this may take some fiddling too. But we should really try for Zumaya and a SP)

4) Call the Astros for Brad Lidge, offer minor leaguers, but not much

I think these are pretty realistic. Obviously not much chance of them all happening, but some may. I haven't even touched on Griffey, I think Detroit may take him (with ML for Zumaya/Rodney?) And add Freel if needed to complete some of those deals. (Perhaps instead of Deno)

Free Agency:

RHSP Vicente Padilla
LHSP Ted Lilly
RHRP Joe Borowski
RHRP Chad Bradford


Just some thoughts off the top of my head. Could probably use some tweaking, but the core idea is there. And there are alternate options available. Post your thoughts. What would you do differently? Am I unrealistic? Where could this improve? What do you think will happen?

And be serious and realistic. No lopsided trades or Krivsky joking, but realistic, probable deals and signings.

:)

redsfan30
10-04-2006, 12:45 PM
No way on earth the Tigers would give up both Zumaya and a SP for Dunn and others.

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 12:58 PM
Not even Dunn, Hatteberg, and good ML pitching?

They need a 1B. Hatteberg is a LHB, patient, a little pop, and solid defense. The Tigers desperately need his type of offense. I realize they may not give up a Bonderman-type, but maybe Maroth and Zumaya. Or try for Rodney instead, not nearly as good, but still a great flamethrower. All I say is try for those guys and you land somewhere in the middle.

REDREAD
10-04-2006, 01:43 PM
What about this?

1)
LaRue (eat $2.5-3 mill., or Ross), Majik, Deno, and Wood or Aurilla/Harris
for
Vernon Wells

This fills Toronto's needs (C, IF, BP) more readily and might be more realistic. They need a DH as well (maybe Griffey, Majik, LaRue?) I dunno.




The problem with this deal is that Maj, Deno, and Harris have almost zero value. Most teams would have no problem getting similiar players off the waiver wire. Thus, Toronto is left with an expensive catcher that has a good shot of rebounding and if Wood is included, one pitching prospect.
Remember that Vernon Wells is a great player. Surely, we wouldn't trade Dunn for a comparable return.

To be honest, to get Wells, we're going to have to ante up Dunn, EdE or Homer just to get the conversation started. That's how I think a lot of conversations that Wayne has this winter will end up. That's going to be his biggest obstacle this winter, he has very few sexy trading chips left, but a lot of holes to fill.

Falls City Beer
10-04-2006, 01:45 PM
The more names that get added to single trades means the likelihood of them happening decreases.

cumberlandreds
10-04-2006, 02:00 PM
Not even Dunn, Hatteburg, and good ML pitching?

They need a 1B. Hatteburg is a LHB, patient, a little pop, and solid defense. The Tigers desperately need his type of offense. I realize they may not give up a Bonderman-type, but maybe Maroth and Zumaya. Or try for Rodney instead, not nearly as good, but still a great flamethrower. All I say is try for those guys and you land somewhere in the middle.

I hate to tell you but Hatteburg is = to Casey. They already have that. You are not going to get much from anyone for Hat. If you are lucky, you get a single A prospect. None of those trades will fly. The Reds just don't have much to offer people unless Bailey,EdE and Dunn are thrown into the mix. I wonder how much value Dunn has after his late season collapse?

flyer85
10-04-2006, 02:01 PM
They need a 1B. Hatteburg is a LHB, patient, a little pop, and solid defense. The Tigers desperately need his type of offense. There isn't a team in baseball that desperately needs Hatty's type of offense at 1b.


I hate to tell you but Hatteburg is = to Casey. Actually it is Hatty < Casey

CySeymour
10-04-2006, 02:05 PM
What about this?
3) Dunn, Loshe, Shafer, Claussen
for
Ervin Santana, Brendan Donnelly, Howie Kendrick
:)


Isn't Loshe a free agent? Can't trade him until we sign him.

dunner13
10-04-2006, 02:06 PM
I have a feeling that the only major moves made will be trying to dump milton and larue. I think someone will take larue. Other than that I think wayne will make some minor trades to fill some holes and probably get at least one big free agent. Someone like padilla or lilly. Might pick up a closer as well or just go with bray, hes got the stuff just dont know if hes got the mental side.

flyer85
10-04-2006, 02:07 PM
Isn't Loshe a free agent? Can't trade him until we sign him.Lohse is arb elibigle, only a free agent if the Reds do not offer arbitration. If DanO was a GM maybe someone would trade for him.

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 02:09 PM
The problem with this deal is that Maj, Deno, and Harris have almost zero value. Most teams would have no problem getting similiar players off the waiver wire. Thus, Toronto is left with an expensive catcher that has a good shot of rebounding and if Wood is included, one pitching prospect.
Remember that Vernon Wells is a great player. Surely, we wouldn't trade Dunn for a comparable return.

To be honest, to get Wells, we're going to have to ante up Dunn, EdE or Homer just to get the conversation started. That's how I think a lot of conversations that Wayne has this winter will end up. That's going to be his biggest obstacle this winter, he has very few sexy trading chips left, but a lot of holes to fill.
Actually Majik has excellent trade value. He only gets bashed around here. Ever since his Chicago days he has been regarded as a top-flight reliever. He is young and cheap to boot. Many, many teams see him as a setup man now or closer very soon.
If I recall, Deno has actually been one of the Reds best trading chips. Most clubs seem to have pretty high regard for him. And his last month here couldn't have hurt.
Harris is not a top prospect. But he is a solid projectable one. He was actually drafted pretty high. But, if needed you could swap Freel for Harris.

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 02:13 PM
There isn't a team in baseball that desperately needs Hatty's type of offense at 1b.

Actually it is Hatty < Casey
I beg to differ. Tigers desperately need high OBP guys. They have zero. They need LHB. Hatteberg qualifies for both. Is he sexy? No. Is he cheap? Yes. Does he fit the Tigers needs? Yes. Are they likely to find a better option anywhere near that price range? Probably not.
I realize it's not a very sexy option for the Tigers, but it is just part of the puzzle, and it fits. And they just might do it.

flyer85
10-04-2006, 02:14 PM
Actually Majik has excellent trade value. He only gets bashed around here. Ever since his Chicago days he has been regarded as a top-flight reliever. He is young and cheap to boot.Then I would flip him to the Cubs for Wuertz tomorrow.

flyer85
10-04-2006, 02:16 PM
I beg to differ. Tigers desperately need high OBP guys. not without power. Hatty had a career year, I am sure the Tigers are smart enough not to expect a repeat. There isn't another team in baseball that would give their 1b job to Hatty.

In 2005 Hattys VORP of -3.6 was worse than every 1B in baseball that got more than 300 ABs(and there were 38 of them)

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 02:29 PM
Hatteberg is just a part of the deal. He's not even a key component. Dunn is the big attraction. And as with all the aforementioned deals, there would be prospects involved. I didn't really want to go into that kind of detail. A couple prospects or one hot one (not Bruce, Bailey, maybe Votto) and it may fly.

SeeinRed
10-04-2006, 03:50 PM
not without power. Hatty had a career year, I am sure the Tigers are smart enough not to expect a repeat. There isn't another team in baseball that would give their 1b job to Hatty.

In 2005 Hattys VORP of -3.6 was worse than every 1B in baseball that got more than 300 ABs(and there were 38 of them)

2005 was also one of Hatteberg's worst years. Can't expect that to happen again either. Just pointing that out.

BRM
10-04-2006, 04:02 PM
2005 was also one of Hatteberg's worst years. Can't expect that to happen again either. Just pointing that out.

Maybe not as bad as 2005 but an OPS in the low .700s is very likely.

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 04:07 PM
not without power. Hatty had a career year, I am sure the Tigers are smart enough not to expect a repeat. There isn't another team in baseball that would give their 1b job to Hatty.

In 2005 Hattys VORP of -3.6 was worse than every 1B in baseball that got more than 300 ABs(and there were 38 of them)
Actually, I just looked at the numbers and Hatteberg didn't really have a career year. I thought he did. It looks like he had five other seasons very similar to 2006. 2002 and 2004 would probably be his career years. He had 15 HRs and 82 RBIs in '04! Hatteberg seems like the hallmark of consistent performance. At his price range, and after showing he can still do it this year, he might actually be pretty attractive to some clubs.

BRM
10-04-2006, 04:12 PM
Hatteberg seems like the hallmark of consistent performance. At his price range, and after showing he can still do it this year, he might actually be pretty attractive to some clubs.

I wouldn't label Hat as consistent. OPS by year:

2002: .807
2003: .725
2004: .787
2005: .677
2006: .825

Looks like an every other year player to me and 2007 is likely to be another down year.

registerthis
10-04-2006, 04:13 PM
Actually it is Hatty < Casey

By whose measuring stick? Casey has OPS'ed below .800 for each of the last two seasons, while also missing significant playing time each year. And this doesn't even address the fact that Hatteberg makes 1/6th of Casey's salary.

I'm not seeing how Casey is better than Hatteberg. He may have been several seasons ago, but he's not now.

SeeinRed
10-04-2006, 04:14 PM
Maybe not as bad as 2005 but an OPS in the low .700s is very likely.

Yeah, I agree. I was just making a point. To say that he won't repeat last year, then turn around and say the he could repeat one of his worst years dosen't make any sense. It will likely fall somewhere in the middle.

BRM
10-04-2006, 04:16 PM
By whose measuring stick? Casey has OPS'ed below .800 for each of the last two seasons, while also missing significant playing time each year. And this doesn't even address the fact that Hatteberg makes 1/6th of Casey's salary.

I'm not seeing how Casey is better than Hatteberg. He may have been several seasons ago, but he's not now.

Casey had a better 2004 and 2005 but Hat was better this season. 2003 was close but I'd still give the nod to Casey there.

camisadelgolf
10-04-2006, 04:21 PM
Do you think the Angels would bite on anything similar to Adam Dunn and Javon Moran (or a prospect of similar value) for Chone Figgins, Juan Rivera, and J.C. Romero? Or am I completely overrating Dunn's worth?

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 04:26 PM
Do you think the Angels would bite on anything similar to Adam Dunn and Javon Moran (or a prospect of similar value) for Chone Figgins, Juan Rivera, and J.C. Romero? Or am I completely overrating Dunn's worth?
You are completely underrating Dunn's worth. Where is the SP? If you add Santana, then that may be fair. However, J.C. Romero is a FA. I believe the Angels already said they won't pick up his option. And why would we want Chone Figgins? He seems to be a lesser version of Ryan Freel.

registerthis
10-04-2006, 04:33 PM
Casey had a better 2004 and 2005 but Hat was better this season. 2003 was close but I'd still give the nod to Casey there.

Casey managed to keep his OBP up in 2005, and that is pretty much the only thing that kept him from having an atrocious year. 9 home runs is a pitiful number coming from a supposed power position. Hatteberg had a career-worst year in 2005 as well. However, considering that Hatteberg simply flat-out outplayed Casey this year, I don't view much of a difference between the two players at this point in their careers, particularly when the tremendous gap in their salaries is taken into consideration.

registerthis
10-04-2006, 04:35 PM
You are completely underrating Dunn's worth. Where is the SP? If you add Santana, then that may be fair.

I'd be very interested in a package that involved Dunn and Ervin Santana.

redsfanmia
10-04-2006, 04:35 PM
You are completely underrating Dunn's worth. Where is the SP? If you add Santana, then that may be fair. However, J.C. Romero is a FA. I believe the Angels already said they won't pick up his option. And why would we want Chone Figgins? He seems to be a lesser version of Ryan Freel.

You are drinking the Adam Dunn Kool-Aid my friend. Dunn's trade value is not nearly as high as you seem to think it is. I think we will find out what Dunn's value is this off-season.

registerthis
10-04-2006, 04:38 PM
You are drinking the Adam Dunn Kool-Aid my friend. Dunn's trade value is not nearly as high as you seem to think it is. I think we will find out what Dunn's value is this off-season.

I hope that we don't, because I agree that Dunn's trade value is low right now. However, if this disucssion were taking place at the end of July, rather than the end of September, these suggestions wouldn't be far-fetched at all.
Dunn's awful September has left a sour taste in everyone's mouth, including opposing GMs, so even attempting to trade Dunn right now would be a huge mistake.

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 04:43 PM
You are drinking the Adam Dunn Kool-Aid my friend. Dunn's trade value is not nearly as high as you seem to think it is. I think we will find out what Dunn's value is this off-season.
Actually I try to be as objective as possible. Dunn is worth a lot. Not that this is a great measuring stick, but if you visit the forums for other teams, they salivate over Dunn. So you think Dunn AND a prospect would only net Juan Rivera, Ryan Freel Jr., and a RP? Come on. Maybe you're drinking the Adam-Dunn-is-worth-nothing kool-aid. I dunno. What would you think is a reasonable return?

camisadelgolf
10-04-2006, 05:01 PM
I just looked at Romero's stats, and until now, I didn't realize he had had such a terrible year (prior to that, he seemed to be a consistent reliever). Nix that deal.

Anyway, let's say it's Scot Shields (who I beileve is arbitration eligible and due for a big raise) with Chone Figgins for Adam Dunn. Personally, I see Figgins as better than Freel because he is more durable and steals more bases. (I also think he has less DUIs and voices in his head, in case anyone puts any importance on those kinds of things.)

And to the people who are saying that Chone Figgins is just another Ryan Freel, are you saying you wouldn't want two Ryan Freels on your team?

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 05:05 PM
I just looked at Romero's stats, and until now, I didn't realize he had had such a terrible year (prior to that, he seemed to be a consistent reliever). Nix that deal.

Anyway, let's say it's Scot Shields (who I beileve is arbitration eligible and due for a big raise) with Chone Figgins for Adam Dunn. Personally, I see Figgins as better than Freel because he is more durable and steals more bases. (I also think he has less DUIs and voices in his head, in case anyone puts any importance on those kinds of things.)

And to the people who are saying that Chone Figgins is just another Ryan Freel, are you saying you wouldn't want two Ryan Freels on your team?
About the two Ryan Freels, I don't know. I don't see why we would want them, but I guess you could then trade Freel (he would net more than Figgins). My main point is-where is the SP? If you trade Dunn you get back a very good SP. Shields is great, but he is not a closer. With a big chip like Dunn, you must get a SP or closer.

(EDIT: Looking at both player's stats, they are pretty comparable. Freel gets on base a lot more, strikes out less (a lot less, save for this year). The SB are basically the same, only Figgins attempts more SBs (probably due to coaching). Also, from what I know, Freel has a much better reputation around the league and is absolutely coveted by many GMs. For whatever reason, Figgins isn't.)

Matt700wlw
10-04-2006, 05:06 PM
My dad today told me that Ichiro wants out of Seattle......

Not sure where he heard it, but I believe him.

RedsManRick
10-04-2006, 05:10 PM
I just looked at Romero's stats, and until now, I didn't realize he had had such a terrible year (prior to that, he seemed to be a consistent reliever). Nix that deal.

Anyway, let's say it's Scot Shields (who I beileve is arbitration eligible and due for a big raise) with Chone Figgins for Adam Dunn. Personally, I see Figgins as better than Freel because he is more durable and steals more bases. (I also think he has less DUIs and voices in his head, in case anyone puts any importance on those kinds of things.)

And to the people who are saying that Chone Figgins is just another Ryan Freel, are you saying you wouldn't want two Ryan Freels on your team?

Yes. In fact, we already have another OBP/speed/defense guy in Denorfia. I wouldn't mind having Figgins if was coming from our system, but you don't trade Dunn for a reliever and utility guy, particularly when they don't really address the team needs.

SultanOfSwing
10-04-2006, 05:17 PM
My dad today told me that Ichiro wants out of Seattle......

Not sure where he heard it, but I believe him.
I have heard similar stories. Has something to do with him playing CF. The Mariners want him to, he doesn't. Although, he did come out and say he is willing to play CF next year. And looking on Seattle message boards, the almost wouldn't mind him going. And they drool over Dunn. I'm not sure if that is a general reflection of the Mariner fan base (and thus the FO) or not.

flyer85
10-04-2006, 05:36 PM
I don't view much of a difference between the two players at this point in their careers, particularly when the tremendous gap in their salaries is taken into consideration.that gap may not be there in 2007. And for their careers Casey has been the superior player without a doubt.

REDREAD
10-04-2006, 05:37 PM
Actually Majik has excellent trade value. He only gets bashed around here. Ever since his Chicago days he has been regarded as a top-flight reliever. He is young and cheap to boot. Many, many teams see him as a setup man now or closer very soon.
If I recall, Deno has actually been one of the Reds best trading chips. Most clubs seem to have pretty high regard for him. And his last month here couldn't have hurt.
Harris is not a top prospect. But he is a solid projectable one. He was actually drafted pretty high. But, if needed you could swap Freel for Harris.


I guess I disagree with Maj's value. I would think he's viewed as an injury case with some possible upside. Not totally worthless, but approaching arbitration. So maybe I undersold him a little bit, but overall, I think we'd need a lot more to get Wells.

I still think if you shopped Deno and Harris around, you'd only get yawns.

The Reds had a gapping hole at a middle infield slot, yet they still didn't give Harris a chance when they called him up. The guy is 26 years old now (the same age as Lopez and Kearns, but without the experience).

I doubt Deno will ever hit ML pitching on a regular basis. He has no power as well. He's Reggie Taylor with less power.

flyer85
10-04-2006, 05:37 PM
I think we will find out what Dunn's value is this off-season.or maybe not.

flyer85
10-04-2006, 05:45 PM
He's Reggie Taylor with less power.That is false.

Taylor's OPS for his minor league career is 700. Denorfia's is 822 and was well over 900 in 2005 and 893 in 2006. The best Taylor could manage in a 400+ AB season was ~750.

registerthis
10-04-2006, 06:31 PM
that gap may not be there in 2007. And for their careers Casey has been the superior player without a doubt.

Sure, and Junior's career wipes Denorfia's all over the floor and throws it into the laundry bin, but it doesn't mean that he's better now.

jnwohio
10-05-2006, 12:39 AM
Casey managed to keep his OBP up in 2005, and that is pretty much the only thing that kept him from having an atrocious year. 9 home runs is a pitiful number coming from a supposed power position. Hatteberg had a career-worst year in 2005 as well. However, considering that Hatteberg simply flat-out outplayed Casey this year, I don't view much of a difference between the two players at this point in their careers, particularly when the tremendous gap in their salaries is taken into consideration.

Casey has turned into a walking GIDP machine. Hatte laso hits into his share but not like Sean.

flyer85
10-05-2006, 10:08 AM
Sure, and Junior's career wipes Denorfia's all over the floor and throws it into the laundry bin, but it doesn't mean that he's better now.seeing as Hatty is 37 and Casey 32 I would say there is not much doubt who will be better moving forward.

I'll take the younger guy with the 833 career OPS over the old guy with the 767 career OPS every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Having said that, neither is very good and if you have one of them playing your 1B position you are likely in trouble.

flyer85
10-05-2006, 10:11 AM
Sure, and Junior's career wipes Denorfia's all over the floor and throws it into the laundry bin, but it doesn't mean that he's better now.So in this case the young guy is better and in the other case the old guy is better. :dunno:

flyer85
10-05-2006, 10:13 AM
Casey has turned into a walking GIDP machine. Hatte laso hits into his share but not like Sean.Hmmm ... let's see.

In 2006 Casey had 10 GIDP and Hatty had 13.

If you make it a rate they turn out to be almost the same.

registerthis
10-05-2006, 11:00 AM
So in this case the young guy is better and in the other case the old guy is better. :dunno:

Nope, I'm not sure where I confused you, but I will try again:

I don't think either Casey or Hatteberg has a clear advantage over the other at this point in their careers--neither is better. Perhaps Casey has another '04 or '99 left in him, but I wouldn't bet the bank. Unquestionably, Casey has had the better career--but I'm not debating that. I'm saying that today--and going forward--I don't view them that differently.

And, yes, I agree that any team that has either one of them penciled in as the starting first baseman is in for some trouble next year. And I appreciate what Hatte did for the Reds this past season, but if ever there was a player who screamed "platoon"...

Falls City Beer
10-05-2006, 11:40 AM
If money's no object, I'd take Casey. If it is, I take Hatteberg.

But, honestly, I want neither.

SultanOfSwing
10-05-2006, 12:06 PM
This has quickly turned into a Casey vs. Hatteberg thread. If this is so big, perhaps we should start a new thread. Anyway, what about the original topic?

Heath
10-05-2006, 12:09 PM
This has quickly turned into a Casey vs. Hatteberg thread. If this is so big, perhaps we should start a new thread. Anyway, what about the original topic?

Honestly, everytime I see this Thread, my brain's scrambling letters thinking it says "More Hot Steve". And I haven't seen KittyDuran's name lately :eek: :bang:

flyer85
10-05-2006, 01:10 PM
And I appreciate what Hatte did for the Reds this past season, but if ever there was a player who screamed "platoon"...for next year it screams "pinch hitter".