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View Full Version : My annual season Wrap-Up/look ahead to 2007



Edskin
10-05-2006, 07:23 AM
I do it every year......so bear with me :)

Most people have covered the major highs and lows of this season, so instead, I'm going to go with a "quick hit" style and tell you what I "learned" from 2006:

I learned........

--That it's real nice having a couple of guys at the top of the rotation that you can count on. Arroyo was great this year, and Harang put it together nicely. No doubt, those two were the biggest reason we hung around in the Central.

--That I was wrong on Lopez/Kearns deal. I defended Krivsky to no end and I still don't think we had ANY shot of winning more games with those two, BUT..the trade didn't make us any better, which is the entire point. It was all sound and fury.....signifying nothing.

--That I am simply not a big Adam Dunn fan. I believe the answer to the "Dunn debate" on this board lies somewhere in the middle. I agree that Dunn is our best player-- and I think that is a PROBLEM. What happened over the past two months goes beyond a "slump" in my eyes.

--That I do not want the Reds signing anyone else's rejects anymore. It's old and tired, and most importantly, it usually doesn't work. Those guys are released for a reason and we seem to love to have that fact hammered home in Cincy.

--That this season never "felt" like a pennant race to me. Was it better than the past 4-5 years? Yes. Was it even close to 1999? No way. I don't think this team ever had a "special" feel to it. I never believed in them. The NL was incredibly weak and we still finished below .500. In the end, I really don't think we exceeded expectations at all. I think we were somewhere around the 17th-20th best team in baseball. I expected us to be in the low 20's. Forgive me for not throwing a party.

--That I prefer the Marlins model of rebuilding. Folks, you've got to give to get and you've got to take some major risks. This team is FAR from contending. We need more than tweaks. We need major overhauls. You don't accomplish those things by dealing Jason Larue. You accomplish those things by taking your biggest strengths and dealing them. It is absolutely a risk. But one I'm willing to take.

As for 2007..........

Assuming we don't make a huge splash in FA, and assuming we make the kind of off-season deals we're used to, I don't see this team as having any hope of doing much better than 80 wins again-- and that's the upside.

I would take the big plunge. I'd make EVERYONE available.

I'd start with Dunn. I'd offer him up for MAJOR pitching prospects. I'm not talking about guys in the low minors or with minimal upside, I'm talking major studs. SOMEONE WILL take the Dunn bait and part with a stud pitcher or two.

I'd do the same with Arroyo. He's VERY attractive right now. Signed, inexpensive, coming off a great year. I have my doubts whether or not he can repeat that success-- a contending team would certainly part with a nice ransom to land a pitcher coming off that type of year with that kind of salary.

I am SICK of the Hatteberg's and Aurilia's dominating the roster. I was so envious watching the Marlins this year. Everyone thought they were tanking the season when they made those off-season deals, but now look at the talent they've produced.

My biggest fear is that in an effort to remain "cool" with the fans, Cast will stay the course and we'll see more of the same in Cincy. I applaud him for his effort, I really do. It's nice having an owner that wants to win. But 80 win seasons don't interest me year after year. I'll take a 70 win season in 2007 if it nets us the parts we'll need to eventually become a champion.

That's what gets lost here, IMO.

The goal is NOT to be respectable.

The goal is to win the World Series.

We've been down for so long that 80 wins feels like a milestone season.
But let's not forget what it's all about.

The roster as currently constructed has NO chance of contending for the ultimate prize. Only one way to change that..............

Always Red
10-05-2006, 08:02 AM
The roster as currently constructed has NO chance of contending for the ultimate prize. Only one way to change that..............

good post, Ed. Very thoughtful and rational, IMO.

Your last sentence gets right to the heart of the matter. And I agree, as is right now, this team is looking at another 75-80 win season next year.

Kriv and Castellini have watched this team all year, much closer than I have, for sure, and I'm sure they see the same. With all the movement this year, I really think this offseason will be very busy. The Reds cannot do it like the Marlins rebuild, as their farm system is WAY more productive than ours.

We need a new look Reds. I've read often, one of the definitions of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results. This team needs a new approach, and I think we're going to get it.

or at least, I hope so!

paulrichjr
10-05-2006, 08:14 AM
Agree 100%. I just wish we had made moves in 06 for 07. We delayed winning by many years folks.

REDREAD
10-05-2006, 11:22 AM
--That I prefer the Marlins model of rebuilding. Folks, you've got to give to get and you've got to take some major risks. This team is FAR from contending. We need more than tweaks. We need major overhauls. You don't accomplish those things by dealing Jason Larue. You accomplish those things by taking your biggest strengths and dealing them. It is absolutely a risk. But one I'm willing to take.
..............

The problem is that the Reds can't do a Marlins style rebuild. You need more in your farm than Homer and Bruce to pull that off. You also need more than 2-3 marketable vets.

Look at the best case scenero:

Dunn gets you two prospects that pan out. One is an average player, one is above average (let's say a #2 starter).

Arroyo and Harang gets you the same return, 1 average and one above average.

Homer, Maj, Bray, and Coffey all work out and are solid. EdE is still around.

Even in this best case scenerio, I don't see enough talent to contend. There's just not enough talent in the pipeline and not enough marketable vets to trade for kids.

redsfan30
10-05-2006, 11:52 AM
Fantastic work!!!!

Two points jumped out at me the most. The "solution" to the Adam Dunn "situation" is somewhere in the middle. He's nowhere near as good as the numbers make him out to be but he's also nowhere near as good as the haters make him out to be. He truely falls somewhere in the middle.

And I 100% agree with making everyone on this roster available for trade, especially Bronson Arroyo. I mentioned in a thread a few days ago that he'd be a big attraction in the trade market if he's made available.

George Foster
10-05-2006, 10:41 PM
Fantastic work!!!!

Two points jumped out at me the most. The "solution" to the Adam Dunn "situation" is somewhere in the middle. He's nowhere near as good as the numbers make him out to be but he's also nowhere near as good as the haters make him out to be. He truely falls somewhere in the middle.

And I 100% agree with making everyone on this roster available for trade, especially Bronson Arroyo. I mentioned in a thread a few days ago that he'd be a big attraction in the trade market if he's made available.

I waffle day to day on the Arroyo trade possibility. He eats up a lot of innings and he could have just learned how to pitch. Or, he could of just had a great year and will return to a 10-14 pitcher. Dealing with this situation could be the biggest decision Wayne has to make this winter.

I lean toward keeping him because he still has a 91mph fastball and he controls his junk well. Today's hitters tend to be "dead red fastball guys" and his curve keeps them on their front foot. I just think when he got into trouble this year he threw the junk to often and up.

oregonred
10-06-2006, 06:37 PM
The problem is that the Reds can't do a Marlins style rebuild. You need more in your farm than Homer and Bruce to pull that off. You also need more than 2-3 marketable vets.

Look at the best case scenero:

Dunn gets you two prospects that pan out. One is an average player, one is above average (let's say a #2 starter).

Arroyo and Harang gets you the same return, 1 average and one above average.

Homer, Maj, Bray, and Coffey all work out and are solid. EdE is still around.

Even in this best case scenerio, I don't see enough talent to contend. There's just not enough talent in the pipeline and not enough marketable vets to trade for kids.

That's the problem the Reds/Krivsky have had all along. Pena dealt for pitching. The much debated trade with a couple of chips. Otherwise you are left with spins at the Roulette wheel or shopping at the junk yard.

Hopefully the end of the veteran/waiver wire de jour fishing experiments will end when the Reds actually build a respectable and deep minor league pipeline over the next couple of years. Veteran castoffs are a necessity right now, hopefully a trend will emerge that shows it's a short term band-aid (jury is out)

They are top heavy with Homer/Votto/Bruce. Not a single infusion (small or large) from the Reds minor league system helped during the course of the 2006 season post AS Break (Denofria was the only one to consider and his impact started to hit very late)