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texasdave
10-05-2006, 02:04 PM
In a recent thread (Dump on Dunn) one poster wondered about Adam Dunn's minor league statistics and another poster surmised that Dunn was unlikely to hit over .280 in the majors. I decided to look up AD's minor league stats and noticed that he batted .304 in the minors. Well if a player hits .304 in the minors is .280 a reasonable expectation for the majors? I had no idea. So I decided to look up players that are comparable to Dunn to see how they performed. Not knowing exactly which players were comparable I simply settled on comparing AD to the top five home run hitters in each league. This seemed reasonable. Only batting average was looked at. The minor league numbers were taken from baseballcube.com and the major league numbers were taken from cnnsi.com. Not being well-versed in statistics I am not drawing any conclusions, but merely posting the results found.

Player: MinBA MajBA Difference
Pujols .314 .332 +.018
Soriano .270 .280 +.010
Howard .299 .304 +.005
Thomas .304 .305 +.001
Hafner .297 .297 -----
Berkman .308 .304 -.004
Dye .292 .277 -.015
Ortiz .310 .283 -.027
Thome .316 .282 -.034
Jones .302 .267 -.035
Dunn .304 .245 -.059

I apologize for not being able to line up the columns better.

Z-Fly
10-05-2006, 02:14 PM
Good post. Very Intresting.

redsfan30
10-05-2006, 02:43 PM
This has a debate on BA importance written all over it.

Rojo
10-05-2006, 02:47 PM
Strikes me that lefthanders have a bigger problem.

RANDY IN INDY
10-05-2006, 02:50 PM
Nice post, Rojo. Interesting stuff.

Crosley68
10-05-2006, 02:51 PM
I noticed that too Rojo......TexasDave thanks for the info...could you add ops to the chart?

Jefferson24
10-05-2006, 03:06 PM
It's my opinion that batters all adjust differently to the jump up to the majors, some better than others. I think your info suggests just that.

Something to consider is the coaching at the big league level. A player may find that they really connect well with a major's hitting coach and are able to take and apply the instruction and that may reflect in a better average. Better coaching equals better hitting.

Some players may not be as willing or able to adjust their swing or their patience at the plate and that will almost always reflect a lower batting average. One thing to remember is that as the pitching gets better the hitter must be willing to adjust accordingly. They aren't going to get near as many "mistakes" to hit in the majors, as they will see in the minors.

The thing with Dunn is that he swings one way and that way is all out. I don't see him adjusting his swing based on the count, runners on or off, righty/lefty, or anything else for that matter. It's that lack of adjustment that results in his low average and high strikeouts. But it's also that lack of adjustment that results in 40 hr seasons. My guess is that if he were to adjust more he would probably give up some power (which I would be quite happy with if it resulted in a higher BA)

texasdave
10-05-2006, 03:33 PM
I noticed that too Rojo......TexasDave thanks for the info...could you add ops to the chart?

Player: MinOPS MajOPS Difference
Pujols .921 1.047 +.126
Soriano .742 .836 +.094
Howard .933 1.024 +.091
Hafner .920 .984 +.064
Thome .917 .974 +.057
Thomas .947 .990 +.043
Ortiz .912 .924 +.012
Berkman .975 .983 +.008
Dye .826 .825 -.001
Dunn .950 .892 -.058
Jones .932 .850 -.082

This was done sort of hastily, but I am pretty confident the numbers and math are correct.

RedsFanInMD
10-05-2006, 03:38 PM
Out of curiosity, do you know whether or not Dunn struck out as much in the minors? They say one of the biggest things for young hitters to adjust to in the big leagues is the variation in strike zone in the minor versus major league level. It is very unusual to find a player who walks AND strikes out as often as Dunn does.

2001MUgrad
10-05-2006, 03:54 PM
Hmm. Has he maxed out his potential?? I'd hope not, but that seems to suggest that maybe he has or maybe he doesn't care.

Rojo
10-05-2006, 06:09 PM
My guess is lefty batters don't really see good leftie pitchers til they hit the bigs.

texasdave
10-06-2006, 10:07 AM
I hate to stir up the pot but did anyone besides myself notice that the two players who finished on the bottom of both lists are the two players on this list who are often said to be not the hardest of workers in perfecting their craft? Maybe, just maybe, Joe Fan isn't as dumb or uninformed as the people who defend such players by stating that Joe Fan has no way of knowing how hard such players work. You know, Joe Fan isn't 'inside' the game so how could they possibly know? Or maybe it's just coincidence. Something to think about though.