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View Full Version : If I were GM for the offseason...



BoilerBC11
10-05-2006, 02:06 PM
Alright, I want to see some opinions out of some Redszoners on what you would do this offseason. Harsh critiquing is gladly accepted from anyone, and any ones opinion is up for criticism. So Lets see what you would do if you were the Reds GM this off-season, and dont be afraid of calling me an idiot for my ideas...

Heres what I would do:

First of all I would tell Adam Dunn that he has two options, Work his tail off this off season, and fully devote himself to baseball. Or we'll trade him. This kid is loaded with potential, I just dont think he is working hard enough to show this potential. Now I dont know anything about Dunn, so he could be a really hard worker, Im just saying it isnt showing.

So if he decides he'd rather get traded, I offer him to the angels for the deal they wanted to give the Orioles, Ervin Santana and Eric Aybar. I dont know if they'd accept this, but they need power in their lineup, and Dunn would be a great DH.

After this deal, I swing Arroyo to the Devil Rays for Carl Crawford. Ala ESPN the Insider, Crawford is on the block for a top of the rotation starter.

I try to deal Hatte,Larue, and a prospect to the Red-Sox for Matt Clement. However they would have to eat some of Clement's salary so this may be unlikely.

I would then give Jose Guillen a short contract worth around 4 mil a year, just long enough to keep the seat warm for Jay Bruce.

I also then go lookin for Bullpen help. I offer JC Romero and Octavio Dotel, and let the duke it out for the closer job.

That means I go into the Season with this line up.

Crawford-CF
Phillips-2B
Griffey-LF
Encarnacion-3B
Guillen-RF
Votto-1B
Ross-C
Aybar-SS

And a opening day rotation of

Harang
Santana
Clement
Milton
Lohse

And a Bullpen of

Majz
Bray
Coffey
Dotel
Romero

pedro
10-05-2006, 02:37 PM
crawford can't play CF or he would have when baldelli was hurt.

jose guillen's arm is trashed. i would target someone else.

any rotation with milton #4 is doomed from start.

SultanOfSwing
10-05-2006, 02:46 PM
I wouldn't go after Clement. I just don't trust him. I we could get him to basically dump LaRue's salary, I would flip Clement for a younger SP major-league-ready prospect with a pretty high ceiling. If it took Arroyo to get Crawford, I would probably flip him for a high-ceiling SP and high-ceiling position prospect.

2001MUgrad
10-05-2006, 02:52 PM
Pitching, Pitching, and more pitching. Have we seen Bronso's ceiling or can he back it up in the future?? What about Harrang. All that needs to be determined. What about Bailey. Is next year the year or is it 2008??

RedLegSuperStar
10-05-2006, 03:14 PM
Dunn and Junior are two of the first people at spring training year in and year out. That at least shows me he wants to be ready for when the season starts. As the season rolls on I'm not to sure of his motives. I think Dunn would be better suited as a 1B/DH so a move to the AL may be good for him. Since he is from Texas why not send him to the Rangers for:

Hank Blalock and John Danks to the Reds for Adam Dunn, Chris Denorfia, and Eric Milton plus 3 million to compinsate for Miltons 9mil price tag.

Blalock had an off year, but I think his potential will sky rise at GABP. Danks is one of Texas's prized pitchers and may of not pitched superb in AAA still has a high ceiling. Blalock would platoon in RF as well as some 3rd on days when EE needs rest and also 1st for Hatteberg. This helps Texas because they add power to the line-up.. much needed if Lee leaves. And they are pitching hungry need someone to go with Millwood. Plus Milton will fit in better at Arlington then GABP.

I think we make a run at one of the many aces availible such as Schmidt, Zito, Mussina, Pettitte, Mulder, Matsuzaka.. and also go after Eaton, Lilly, Wolf, or even Miguel Batista..

Personally I think Mulder and Eaton would be the two I'd push for.. relativly young and coming off of injuries which would mean they may sign a little cheaper.

Add Luis Castillo to play 2B or do a trade with Atlanta to obtain Marcus Giles.

Sign Keith Folke as your closer and Jose Cruz Jr 4th OF.

Resign Schoenewies and Lohse. Move Phillips to SS.

A team like this would be sure favorites to compete in the Central if not favorites to win.

Lineup/Bench:

Freel - LF
Castillo - 2B
Griffey - CF
Blalock - RF
Encarnacion - 3B
Hatteberg - 1B
Phillips - SS
Ross - C

Castro
Cruz Jr
Votto
Valentin
Olmedo


SP: Harang
SP: Arroyo
SP: Mulder
SP: Eaton
SP: Lohse

LR: Claussen
LR: Belisle
MR: Majewski
MR: Bray
MR: Schoenewies
SU: Coffey
CL: Folke

BoilerBC11
10-05-2006, 03:19 PM
Its not that Crawford cant play Center, its that he's never wanted too, so I guess we would have to convince him to play center for us.

As for Guillens arm, he'll be ready in time for opening day, and plenty of people have sucessfully came back from Tommy John

As for Clement, he's a bit of a risk...But coming back to the NL will probably really help this guy, Arroyo v2.0 in my opinion

dunner13
10-05-2006, 03:25 PM
Tampa wouldnt take arroyo for crawford. The only player in our organization they would take for crawford is bailey. I would sign hunter to play center. Trade larue to the blue jays for anything, even nothing if they will just take him. Then I see if anyone maybe the nationals, mariners or padres will take milton. Once again if someone will take him, they can have him. Then I sign mulder,(not sure if he would even consider cincy but try pay him alittle and you might get him, padilla, and dotel. Start Bailey in AAA with the plan of him arriving at the beginning of june. Possibly even consider letting him start the year in the pen and then move into the rotation, much like liriano this year. Although he did have elbow trouble at the end of they year.

westofyou
10-05-2006, 03:28 PM
I try to deal Hatte,Larue, and a prospect to the Red-Sox for Matt Clement. However they would have to eat some of Clement's salary so this may be unlikely.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5561



The Red Sox finally know what was going on in the shoulder of pitcher Matt Clement, and it wasn't good. Dr. Jim Andrews found significant damage in Clement's shoulder during exploratory surgery. Damage to both the rotator cuff and labrum was seen and repaired, likely ending Clement's 2007 before we're even done with 2006. It's another lesson in why MRIs aren't perfect as diagnostic tools, and why conservative rehab is often as risky as exploratory surgery.

blumj
10-05-2006, 03:40 PM
Yeah, I didn't realize the Clement news never made it here. He's done, almost definitely for the length of his contract, and maybe even for good. Poor guy took a ton of crap for supposedly being fragile emotionally or whatever, turns out he was trying to pitch with a badly damaged shoulder, and it just didn't show up on the MRIs. He could have had the exploratory done months ago, but he kept rehabbing and trying to pitch.

westofyou
10-05-2006, 03:46 PM
Yeah, I didn't realize the Clement news never made it here.

That's because the mob was too busy clubbing their own.

pedro
10-05-2006, 05:16 PM
Its not that Crawford cant play Center, its that he's never wanted too, so I guess we would have to convince him to play center for us.



what are you basing this on? just curious.

that makes him sound like a prima donna to me if it's true.

BoilerBC11
10-06-2006, 12:47 AM
I just googled "why doesn't Carl Crawford play Centerfield" I read it on a couple sites, this is the most specific one

http://badaltitude.baseballtoaster.com/archives/424342.html

I agree thats pretty lame, if true...

nmculbreth
10-06-2006, 12:56 AM
I'd blow it up and start from scratch.

My first order of business would be to trade Dunn, preferrably for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. I'd even be willing to make the deal Dunn straight up for Santana.

My second order of business would be to shop Arroyo. I'm not sure anyone really believes that he will be able to replicate his 2006 numbers but his reasonable contract should make him very attractive to teams looking for quality starters. I'm not sure what I'd expect to get for him but I think two advanced prospects (preferably one pitcher and one position player) would be a good starting point.

Dump Griffey, LaRue and Milton for whatever you can get. I'd be fine with getting nothing in return for them if I was able to get a team to eat a substantial part of their remaining salary.

Keeping with the rebuilding theme, I wouldn't make any major acquisitions for next season. I'd rather save the money to make a run at Vernon Wells next offseason.

redlegs7089
10-06-2006, 12:59 AM
arroyo for crawford, they would never do that are u kidding me, it would take homer to ply crawford

Topcat
10-06-2006, 02:33 AM
Ok *sigh* this is going to take thought as I am drinking ;) . Option one is I package Larue and I eat half his salary, I throw In Bergolla and Lizard to the San Fran for 1b Lance Niekro. I shop Votto and Freel to Detroit for (cf) Brent Cleven and (p) Jordin Tata and (rp) Wilfredo Ledezma. Adam Dunn (god I hate myself for this :cry: ) I offer to the Angel and stand firm on an offer that must include 3 players Joe Saunders(P) Chris Bootchek and Juan Rivera(OF) and Eric Aybar. I Do not even try in my wildest dreams to shop Eric Milton its not possible if it was I would take a single a never going anywhere prospect but its not possible. Now Factoring in insurance money for Paul Wilson , plus a bump of say 5 million for next year not knowing what gains or minuses exist on the present day roster. My realistic options for free agency are (P) Randy Wolf if he can pass all the tests on health, the Caveat to passing health has to be non Reds personal as there recent record is pathetic. Jim Edmonds if he will take a 2yr deal and YES I know alot of Reds fans will cringe but Jesus he can still play showboat or not! (RP) J.C. Romero.

redsrule2500
10-06-2006, 03:26 AM
I'd blow it up and start from scratch.

My first order of business would be to trade Dunn, preferrably for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. I'd even be willing to make the deal Dunn straight up for Santana.

My second order of business would be to shop Arroyo. I'm not sure anyone really believes that he will be able to replicate his 2006 numbers but his reasonable contract should make him very attractive to teams looking for quality starters. I'm not sure what I'd expect to get for him but I think two advanced prospects (preferably one pitcher and one position player) would be a good starting point.

Dump Griffey, LaRue and Milton for whatever you can get. I'd be fine with getting nothing in return for them if I was able to get a team to eat a substantial part of their remaining salary.

Keeping with the rebuilding theme, I wouldn't make any major acquisitions for next season. I'd rather save the money to make a run at Vernon Wells next offseason.

Lose. Too many years of this crap, we need to win asap.

BoilerBC11
10-06-2006, 09:40 AM
I think your undervaluing Arroyo. He is really good trade bait for a small market team, based on his low salary. If they need more though, we could easily throw in another pitcher or 2 to make the deal. Maybe Darrell Thomson and Sam Leclure?

Slyder
10-06-2006, 10:57 AM
Why trade Arroyo for hitting? We arent the Twins with pitching coming out the wazoo! We need to build around Harang and Arroyo not dismantle it. We saw how far just offense could carry us the past 3 years. We need 1 more good/great starter and wed be IN THE PLAYOFFS not on the outside looking in, IMO. Unless youre getting a "too good to be true" offer for Arroyo he wouldn't be going anywhere for me. Crawford doesnt do enough to help the offense for one of our "aces".

klw
10-06-2006, 11:36 AM
That's because the mob was too busy clubbing their own.

I actually raised the Clement in the "Great Merged Dunn bashing thread" that disappeared then again in the "What happened to the Dunn Bashing Thread?" thread. http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51592&highlight=clement

http://growabrain.typepad.com/growabrain/images/pat_on_the_back_1.jpg

RedsManRick
10-06-2006, 11:41 AM
Why trade Arroyo for hitting? We arent the Twins with pitching coming out the wazoo! We need to build around Harang and Arroyo not dismantle it. We saw how far just offense could carry us the past 3 years. We need 1 more good/great starter and wed be IN THE PLAYOFFS not on the outside looking in, IMO. Unless youre getting a "too good to be true" offer for Arroyo he wouldn't be going anywhere for me. Crawford doesnt do enough to help the offense for one of our "aces".

Because sometimes you can trade Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton. I don't think anybody is on the "get rid of Arroyo" train. More like, "Let's see if we can get somebody to overpay for what may go down as Arroyo's career year, improving the team while not taking a single step back."

Seems like everybody likes the idea of sell high / buy low until you realize that selling high means trading a good player. You have to have in your judgement that a player has peaked. I don't think Arroyo will ever be better or cheaper than he is right now. Unless you honestly think that the Reds could be in the World Series in a year, it maxes sense to get the most value out of Arroyo as possible.

44Magnum
10-06-2006, 12:04 PM
Any offseason plan that does not include getting rid of Jr. and Milton is crazy. They have to go. I would also demand that Dunn drop 50 lbs. and move to 1b. After that, I would then address pitching and 2b/SS.

klw
10-06-2006, 12:04 PM
It seems that Crawford is the hot pick and would cost a bundle. Given the Reds need for Outfield depth but lack of players to move while staying in short and long term contention, if an outfielder from Tampa/ Tampa Bay/St. Pete/ Team Clark Rays/Devil Rays was the goal, the Reds would be better served targeting Baldelli or Gomes. Both are potentially undervalued at this time.

I think the Reds should target Ray Durham to play second for 2 years at 11 million (he made 5mil this year). He is coming off one of, if not, his best offensive years and despite being in his mid-30's has not shown much of decline in his range factor.

SS- Phillips
LF- Dunn
2- Durham
rf- Griffey
3- Encarnacion
1- Aurillia
CF- Baldelli
C- Ross

bench
Freel
Hopper
Castro
Hatteburg
Valentin

SR
Harang
Arroyo
Eaton
Lohse
Milton

RP
Cormier
Weathers
Shoenwiess
Coffey
Kyle Snyder
Bray
Majewski

There that's a start with what is there. The alternative is to blow things up ala Florida and move Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Cormier. Get as many prospects as possible and install them.
Go:
1. Votto
2. Castro/Harris
ss. Phillips
3. Encarnacion
c. Valentin/Larue
CF Griffey
LF Deno
RF ?

Bench
Hopper
Hatteburg
?


Rotation (Plan to add arms in trade, move up Cueto in July)
Lohse (if takes lowball offer)
Milton
Bailey
Ramirez
Claussen

Pen
Bray
Majewski
Coffey
Guevara
Salmon
Weathers (expect to move at deadline)
Schoenwiess (closer but move at deadline)

This roster would also be affected by who came in the blowup. any further vets who could be moved at the deadline would be. Be pleased if get to 60 wins in year one.

So far I think this administration is unlikely to blow things up because they are trying to win now. I don't think they will move Dunn unless it improves the team's ablility to win now. Right now the offense was worse down the stretch then the pitching. They can afford to dump offense for a starter and a prospect unless that offense is replaced eslewhere and Carlos Lee isn't coming to Cincy.

Slyder
10-06-2006, 12:23 PM
Because sometimes you can trade Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton. I don't think anybody is on the "get rid of Arroyo" train. More like, "Let's see if we can get somebody to overpay for what may go down as Arroyo's career year, improving the team while not taking a single step back."

Seems like everybody likes the idea of sell high / buy low until you realize that selling high means trading a good player. You have to have in your judgement that a player has peaked. I don't think Arroyo will ever be better or cheaper than he is right now. Unless you honestly think that the Reds could be in the World Series in a year, it maxes sense to get the most value out of Arroyo as possible.

IF we got that type of package then I would consider it but the sound of this thread everyone wants to trade Arroyo for Carl Crawford, hence my "why trade pitching for hitting".

klw
10-06-2006, 12:27 PM
IF we got that type of package then I would consider it but the sound of this thread everyone wants to trade Arroyo for Carl Crawford, hence my "why trade pitching for hitting".

You trade pitching for hitting if your pitching is overvauled/ you don't expect to win now/ you think the pitching can be more easily replaced/ the hitter is a special player/ you think Arroyo will go the route of Jimmy Hayes not Harang/ you are not expecting to win now and are blowing it up of 2009.

dunner13
10-06-2006, 12:52 PM
We shouldnt even be talking about arroyo for crawford, cause it would never happen. If you really want crawford your giving up bailey. We need to keep arroyo and harang. Keep Dunn, we need his bat whether you like him or not. Add a starter, most likely either wolf, padilla or meche. Add an OF like Hunter, put freel/aurilla at second. And we make the playoffs. We were only a couple of games away this year. If hatte struggles bring up voto, as soon as a starter goes down bring up bailey.

Slyder
10-06-2006, 01:02 PM
You trade pitching for hitting if your pitching is overvauled/ you don't expect to win now/ you think the pitching can be more easily replaced/ the hitter is a special player/ you think Arroyo will go the route of Jimmy Hayes not Harang/ you are not expecting to win now and are blowing it up of 2009.


Jimmy Haynes has sucked, will suck, and always will suck. Arroyo's season this year alone blows Haynes out of the water. And again We are not the Twins we dont have pitching spects out the ying yang. If you trade Arroyo you better get pitching depth not more offense. We have seen for the past 3-4 years what no pitching and all hitting gets you... Nowhere.

nmculbreth
10-06-2006, 08:05 PM
Lose. Too many years of this crap, we need to win asap.

The rebuilding process was never done properly, hence the reason we've been bad for a decade. I'd love to have a winning ballclub on the field next season but I don't think that is a realistic expectation. The organization has a number of bad contracts eating up a large portion of it's payroll and very few major league ready prospects so how do we add the pieces we need to make this team a contender?

I'm tired of short term fixes and I'm willing to suffer a couple bad seasons for the promise of a brighter future.

ED44
10-09-2006, 10:17 AM
I love the idea of Dunn for Santana and Aybar. I'm not sure the Angels would play along though. If they would, do it in a heartbeat. If they wouldn't send Aybar over, try to get a McPhereson thrown in the deal. He had loads of potential, but couldn't stay healthy. He would be worth taking a risk on and hope he puts up a B.P. type season.

Would the Tigers trade Zumaya and Thames for Dunn? Would you? That would give the Reds a closer and replacement in LF, who put up some good numbers.

I also like the idea of signing Hunter to play CF. He has grerat range, some pop, and speed. He may be too costly though for the production.

I'm all for trading LaRue and Milton for a bag of balls, but would anyone want them. if we packaged Deno with Larue, maybe we could get something in return without having to eat all of LaRue's salary. With Deno gone, sign a Dave Roberts to platoon with Freel in RF. This gives you a lefty/righty with speed at the top of the order.

Try and sign another starter, whether it be Ohka or Padilla. I like either of them as #4's. I don't think you will find a taker on Milton, so make him #5 starter, giving the Reds one lefty in the rotation.

I would look at Baez as a closer. If he doesn't work, I would take a look at Lohse. He throws hard and has good stuff. I'm not sure he has the mentality of a closer, but it could work. The pickings are slim on the closer FA wire, so trying to find one from within may have to happen.

Finally, I would pickup Aurilia's contract. He was one of out more productive hitters throughout the season.